農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼效率研究.ppt

農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)保費(fèi)財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼效率研究： 基于農(nóng)戶級(jí)微觀數(shù)據(jù)的證據(jù),張躍華 副教授 管理學(xué)博士、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博士后 浙江大學(xué)社會(huì)保障與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理系,目 錄, 1,研究背景及意義,連續(xù)十年中央1號(hào)文件,根據(jù)財(cái)政部財(cái)金（2013）7號(hào)文件：加強(qiáng)保費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼資金管理，提高財(cái)政資金使用效益。,十八大報(bào)告中提出：“必須以保障和改善民生為重點(diǎn)，解決好人民最關(guān)心、最直接、最現(xiàn)實(shí)的利益問題，努力讓人民過(guò)上更好生活?！?十八大,一號(hào)文件, 2,農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)績(jī)效 評(píng)價(jià),1、政策性農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的理論和實(shí)證根據(jù) （1）農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)的作用？實(shí)證意義上 （2）糧食產(chǎn)量（牲畜產(chǎn)量）、農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)方式、社會(huì)福利效應(yīng)（穩(wěn)定、食品安全等）度量 （3）農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)與其他支農(nóng)方式的比較 （4）道德風(fēng)險(xiǎn)（欺詐）度量 2、補(bǔ)貼資金的分配和使用 （1）補(bǔ)貼資金在保險(xiǎn)公司、農(nóng)戶及其他機(jī)構(gòu)的分配; （2）社會(huì)受益面及賠付率 （3）農(nóng)業(yè)保險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)可持續(xù)性等問題,3,美國(guó)經(jīng)驗(yàn)借鑒,Budget: crop insurance has become the most costly farm program (outside of food and nutritional assistance). In 2011, over 265 million acres were insured in the program, with a total liability estimated at $114 billion. Federal costs of the program in fiscal year (FY) 2011 are estimated to exceed $11 billion, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that 10-year outlays over FY 201322 will exceed $90 billion.,4,Questions What Market Failure? The Harm of Subsidies Potential distortions Efficient of Subsidy As Smith (2011) pointed out, over the 20052009 period, the combination of A&O subsidies and underwriting gains resulted in a return of $1.44 to the private insurance companies for each subsidy dollar returned to farmers (in terms of the excess of indemnities over farmerpaid premiums).,WHY DOWE SUBSIDIZE CROP INSURANCE?,What is the price elasticity of demand for crop insurance? Adverse selection and moral hazard are difficult to measure and may have changed over time. To what degree do farm decision-makers experience cognitive failure when assessing catastrophic price and yield risk? With the current premium subsidy structure, subsidy per dollar of insurance protection varies dramatically across different crops and regions. To what extent does this affect planting and resource allocation decisions? What alternative subsidy designs might be less distortionary?, 5,牲畜保險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)行為的影響機(jī)制研究 以生豬保險(xiǎn)和能繁母豬保險(xiǎn)為例, 6,研究背景及意義我國(guó)養(yǎng)豬業(yè)概況,2009年我國(guó)出欄生豬64538.6 萬(wàn)頭，豬肉4890.8 萬(wàn)噸 ，約占世界產(chǎn)量的一半。2010年我國(guó)出欄生豬66686.43萬(wàn)頭，比2009年增長(zhǎng)3.33%。, 7,擬解決的問題：生豬（能繁母豬）保險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶的生產(chǎn)行為有哪些影響？ （1）生豬產(chǎn)量、能繁母豬存欄量？ （2）生豬（能繁母豬）疫苗變化？ （3）生豬死亡率變化？,研究方法,實(shí)驗(yàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（自愿保險(xiǎn)與強(qiáng)制保險(xiǎn)） （1）自愿保險(xiǎn) 浙江省德清縣2009年-2010年600個(gè)養(yǎng)豬大戶跟蹤調(diào)查。 全樣本（年出欄量100頭以上的生豬） 跟蹤調(diào)查（相同農(nóng)戶2009年和2010年生產(chǎn)行為） 面對(duì)面訪談及問卷調(diào)查 研究方法：結(jié)構(gòu)方程（SCI）；DiD（JRI）,8,hog,9,swine, 10,survey, 11,調(diào)研情況,12,調(diào)查方法及數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查流程,本次調(diào)查針對(duì)浙江省德清縣和江山市生豬養(yǎng)殖戶，并采用分層抽樣方法進(jìn)行。, 13,Insurance Impact on Vaccine Use,14,Insurance Impact on Mortality Rate,15,Insurance Impact on Production,16,Conclusion,Vaccine use for hogs increased significantly after the withdrawal of insurance, while it is not significant for swines. Access to insurance significantly increases the hog production, but not significant for the swine production. swine is like capital for farmers However, all the impacts of insurance is trivial in view of scale.,17,研究方法,實(shí)驗(yàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（自愿保險(xiǎn)與強(qiáng)制保險(xiǎn)） （1）強(qiáng)制保險(xiǎn)（自然實(shí)驗(yàn)） 浙江省江山市2009年-2010年1350個(gè)養(yǎng)豬戶跟蹤調(diào)查。 分層隨機(jī)抽樣 2008-2009年能繁母豬保險(xiǎn)強(qiáng)制保險(xiǎn)，21%的農(nóng)戶不知道曾經(jīng)購(gòu)買了保險(xiǎn) 面對(duì)面訪談及問卷調(diào)查 研究方法：自然實(shí)驗(yàn)，工具變量，DiD,18,19,結(jié)論 未發(fā)現(xiàn)能繁母豬保險(xiǎn)對(duì)農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)行為產(chǎn)生影響。,研究進(jìn)一步拓展：食品安全, 20,食品安全,“抗生豬”，即指由于飼養(yǎng)者經(jīng)常大規(guī)模使用抗生素，導(dǎo)致在豬肉中含有對(duì)抗生素具有耐藥性的細(xì)菌。,迄今為止，中國(guó)約有50%的獸用抗生素被用于非治療性目的（預(yù)防性治療），這對(duì)我國(guó)生豬出口也造成了極大的影響，我國(guó)飼養(yǎng)量占世界的49% ,但因?yàn)樗帤埣耙卟栴},生豬及其產(chǎn)