各組織應該警惕亞洲私人部門債務飆升

1、August can be a perilous month for investors. It is a month when there is little volume or liquidity in financial markets and this s August appears to be an especially treacherous one. 8月對投資者而言可能是一個危險的月份。8月的 金融市場交易量或流動性非常低，今年的8月看起 來尤其兇險。 Among the most vulnerable perhaps surprisingly are emerging As

2、ian markets, where aggregate private sector debt has been building up. That is because th e combination of high leverage and lack of liquidity is not a happy one when investors are feeling nervous. 有些人也許想不到，亞洲新興市場（那里的私人 部 門總債務一直在攀升）現(xiàn)在屬于最脆弱的市場。 原因在于，在投資者正感到緊張之際，高杠桿和 流動性匱乏的組合可不是一個令人樂觀的組合。 This summer,

3、 the markets have been hit by a bout of fear from a co mbination of the prospect of a world with less easy money and more dangerous gunmen. Since their July peaks, emerging market debt and currencies have weakened. 今年夏季，市場受到 一波恐慌情緒的沖擊，原因是人們擔心世界上的 寬松貨幣可能會減少，而危險的投機者有所增多。 自7月份見頂以來，新興市場債市和匯率已經走低。 Today,

4、 as investors shif t away from their quest for yield, and outflows from US junk bond funds last week reached a record $11.4bn, it seems timely to ask how badly the emerging markets of Asia will be affected and how much they should be affected. 如今， 隨著投資者逐漸停止對收益的追逐，美國垃圾債 基金的贖回額上上周達到 創(chuàng)紀錄的114億美元，似乎是時候問問

5、亞洲新興市 場即將以及應該會受到多么嚴重的影響了。 While leverage levels have dropped in developed markets since the financial crisis, the y have gone the other way across the Pacific. The total stock of debt has more than doubled to $21tn in emerging Asia in the past five years, JPMorgan notes. Asian debt is back to levels

6、 last seen during the regions financial crisis of 1997, according to data from Gavekal Dragonomics, a research boutique. 自 本次金融危機以來，發(fā)達市場的杠桿水平有所下 降，但太平洋對岸的情形正好相反。摩根大通 (JPMorgan)指出，過去5年亞洲新興市場債務總存 量增加了一倍多，至21萬億 美元。研究機構龍洲經訊(GaveKal Dragonomics) 的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，亞洲債務規(guī)?；氐搅?997年亞洲金 融危機期間的水平。 Heavy burden 沉重負擔 Debt le

7、vels matter because they have an influen ce on future growth and the more expensive the debt, the heavier the burden on borrowers. 債務水平事關 緊要，因為它會影響未來的經濟增長，而且債務 成本越高，借款人的負擔就越 重。 Since 2009, the region has been among the most fortunate in the world as its high growth rate attracted disproportionate ca

8、pita l flows from outside. Most of that debt came from domestic borrowing, though, with just $2.5tn of the total in foreign borrowing. 2009年以來，由于亞洲的高增長率吸引了數(shù)量多 得離譜的外部資本流入，該地區(qū)一直是全球最幸 運的地區(qū)之一。不過，亞洲大多數(shù)債務是內債， 外債總額僅為2.5萬億美元。 In addition, much of Asia still generates current account surpluses, which have le

9、d, in turn, to large foreign exchange reserves. These considerations have led many analysts to con clude that Asia is far less exposed today than it was 17 years ago. 此外，亞洲很多國家仍有經常賬戶盈余， 這又導致了高額的外匯儲備?？紤]到這些因素， 很多分析師斷定，亞洲今日的風險敞口遠低于17 年 前。 But the optimistic analysis focuses on the sovereign. The chance

10、s of a systemic crisis are more remote than in 1997, but that i s not to say corporate Asia is immune. Many Asian companies have been huge beneficiaries of the inflows set in train by the Federa l Reserves zero interest rate policies. 但是，這一樂 觀分析關注的是主權債務。發(fā)生一場系統(tǒng)性危機 的可能性確實小于1997年，不過，這并不是說亞 洲企業(yè)不會受到影響。美聯(lián)

11、儲(Fed)零利率政策導 致大量資金流入亞洲，許多亞洲企 業(yè)從中受益匪淺。 Now, though, a benign period for Asia seems to be drawing to an end. Exports have been growing at a slower rate for many countries in the region. US companies are spending less not only on plant and equipment but also on technology, which hurts a regi on that ha

12、s thrived by providing both corporations and consumers with their technology tools. 不過，亞洲的 好日子如今似乎快走到頭了。許多亞洲國家的出 口增長一直在減速。 美國企業(yè)不但在廠房與設備、而且在技術上減少 開支，這對亞洲構成了傷害。亞洲通過向美國企 業(yè)和消費者供應技術工具取得了蓬勃發(fā)展。 “Emerging Asias foreign liabilities are now higher as a share of ex ports than any time in the last 10 years,” no

13、tes Jahangir Aziz, a Washington-based economist for JPMorgan, adding that as a result there is “increased potential for currency mismatch in the private sector. Corporates are directly exposed to FX shocks.” 摩根大通(JP Morgan)駐華盛頓經濟學家賈漢吉爾阿齊 茲(Jahangir Aziz)指出：“如今，亞洲新興市場的 外債與出口之比高于以往10年的任何時候?！彼?補充道，其結果是

14、，“私人部門出現(xiàn)貨幣錯配的 可能性加大了。企業(yè)直接曝險于外匯沖擊。” Bond de pendence 債券依賴 Moreover, while as a percentage of total borrowing, foreign borrowing is smaller than in the past, the absolute amou nts and the dependence of some companies on the US bond market is growing. Almost half the borrowers are Chinese, mostly prope

15、 rty and industrial groups. Another 10 per cent are Indonesian. 另外，盡管外債占總債務的比例低于 過去，但外債的絕對額在增加，有些企業(yè)也越來 越依賴美國債券市場。近半數(shù)借款者是中國企業(yè)， 主要是房地產和工 業(yè)集團。另有10%的借款者為印尼企業(yè)。 JPMorgans Asian credit index, which includes both high grade and high yield debt, stands at $500bn, three tim es higher than in 2005. 摩根大通亞洲信貸指數(shù)（

16、既 包含高評級又包含高收益?zhèn)┧w的債券總 市值目前為5000億美元，是2005年的3倍。 For the first half of this year issuance was $96b n, while for the whole of last year, $120bn was raised. And while less than 20 per cent of that is high yield, it is worth remembe ring that critical inflection points often reflect incremental changes.

17、 If the US high yield market suffers, the Asian US dollar h igh yield market is likely to register the impact. 今年 上半年，亞洲企業(yè)發(fā)債960億美元，而去年全年發(fā) 債1200億美元。盡管高收益?zhèn)壤蛔?0%，但 不能忘記的是，關鍵拐點往往是漸進式變化的反 映。如果美國高收 益?zhèn)袌鲂蝿莶缓茫瑏喼廾涝呤找鎮(zhèn)袌?很可能會受到沖擊。 Of the 51 defaults in the market since 2000, 17 were Chinese borrowers an

18、d 23 were Indonesian. Toda y Chinese and Indonesian companies may be especially vulnerable in the face of skittish investors. 2000年以來亞洲美元高收益?zhèn)袌霭l(fā)生了51起 違約，中國借款 企業(yè)占17起，印尼借款企業(yè)占23起。如今，面對 易受驚嚇的投資者，中國和印尼企業(yè)可能尤其容 易受到沖擊。 All these potential clouds over credit markets come at a time when the Chinese stock markets have rallied. Chinese equities have been the single best performing asset class in the past month, (up 4.4 per cent) with inflows at their highest level since December 2012. Meanwhile, the SP 500