羅杰斯最近三年投資日記（至 Apr11）1

1、april 11, 2011im not planning to sell my chinese shares everi only like to buy china when it collapses and it hasnt collapsed in nearly two years. my children are going to own my chinese shares. im not planning to sell my chinese shares ever. - in cnbcrelated: china mobile ltd. (adr) (nyse:chl), ish

2、ares ftse/xinhua china 25 index (etf) (nyse:fxi), china petroleum & chemical corp. (adr) (nyse:snp), china life insurance company ltd. (adr) (nyse:lfc), petrochina company limited (adr) (nyse:ptr), morgan stanley china a share fund, inc. (nyse:caf), aluminum corp. of china limited (adr) (public, nys

3、e:ach)april 10, 2011my children are going to own my chinese shares some dayif china collapses and the stock market has a big drop, i hope im smart enough to buy more chinese shares. my approach to china is that my children are going to own my chinese shares some day. i dont do this in any other coun

4、try. only china. i hope one day my grandchildren are gonna say that the old man was really smart wherever he is, thank you.related: ishares ftse/xinhua china 25 index (etf) (nyse:fxi), morgan stanley china a share fund, inc. (nyse:caf), powershares gld drg haltr usx china(etf) (nyse:pgj)april 9, 201

5、1its better for china to open its currencyi think its better for china to open its currency market as soon as possible. this is not 1981; this is 2011. china is a strong and independent country now, and they dont have to worry about the currency. it would be good for china and the 1.3 billion chines

6、e. everything china imports will go down in price. you have to have a convertible currency to have a strong international economy. china is doing it but i think they could do it faster. - in chinadigitalrelated: ishares ftse/xinhua china 25 index (etf), (nyse:fxi) market vectors chinese renminbi/usd

7、 etn (nyse:cny)april 8, 2011china: the only thing i worry about is waterthe only thing i worry about is water. china has one of the worst water problems in the world. unless you solve your water problem, theres no china story. ive been around the world a couple of times, ive seen whole cities, socie

8、ties and countries disappear because of water problems.the amount, quality and supply of water could lead to the end of chinas story if the problem is not solved in time. - in related: ishares ftse/xinhua china 25 index (etf) (nyse:fxi), morgan stanley china a share fund, inc. (nyse:caf), powershare

9、s gld drg haltr usx china(etf) (nyse:pgj)april 7, 2011its going to be difficult to stop inflationbut with the u.s. pouring gasoline over the fire, its going to be much more difficult for anybody to stop inflation. america is fanning it as best as it can, and its going to get worse. - in beacon equit

10、yapril 5, 2011the us dollar will be debased a great deal in the futureeverything i have told the world about gold and silver is going to continue to happen. eventually gold will be a couple of thousand dollars an ounce, and probably much higher, as currencies become more debased, who knows how high.

11、silver will definitely reach new highs. as i have said, the us dollar is in serious trouble, and will be debased a great deal in the future, and eventually will be problematical itself. so gold and silver will be measured by the us dollar but i hope there will still be some sound currencies no matte

12、r what happens. - in related etfs: spdr gold trust (etf) (nyse:gld), ishares silver trust (etf) (nyse:slv), hecla mining company (nyse:hl), coeur dalene mines corporation (nyse:cde), newmont mining corporation (nyse:nem)april 4, 2011the euro is a political currency rather than a economic currencyi d

13、idnt say that the world needed the euro, i said it would be good for the world; we need something to compete with the us dollar. on paper the euro would be a great competitor. however, as i have said before, it is a political currency rather than an economical currency, and i would suspect that this

14、 pushes the euro closer to a moment of truth.the germans are now in control and they will be able to make everybody toe the line. the germans expect to hold the euro together during this period of pain, and i hope they can. as i have said before, the world needs something to complete with the us dol

15、lar. i would expect the euro will survive this particular round of problems, and this will be good for the world and the euro in the long run. - in lewrapril 2, 2011the silver bull market has a long way to gothe bull market in silver has a long way to go. - in cnbc asiarelated: spdr gold trust (etf)

16、 (nyse:gld), ishares silver trust (etf) (nyse:slv)april 1, 2011i bought some silver and gold last weekdont sell your silver - in cnbc, march 31related: spdr gold trust (etf) (nyse:gld), ishares silver trust (etf) (nyse:slv)march 31, 2011cnbc video interview: nuclear energylatest cnbc video interview

17、:i own japan. i dont think japan is going to fall off the face of the earth.its going to cause slowdown in the japanese economy.eventually though they are going to have to rebuild and they will rebuild. i dont think japan is going to fall off the face of the earth and i own japan. - in cnbcrelated:

18、ishares msci japan index (etf) (nyse:ewj)march 30, 2011waiting to short us government bondsim not selling anything. im waiting to sell short us government bonds.- in cnbcrelated etfs: proshares ultrashort 20+ year trea (etf) (nyse:tbt), ishares barclays 20+ yr treasury bond (etf) (nyse:tlt), ishares

19、 lehman 7-10 year treasury bond (etf) (nyse:ief)we need to have nuclear, whether we like it or not.unless we find something to replace oil and coal, we have to have nuclear.whether we like it or not. - in cnbcrelated stocks: denison mines corp. (amex:dnn), cameco corporation (usa) (nyse:ccj), uraniu

20、m resources, inc. (nasdaq:urre)march 28, 2011there are always correction, nothing goes straight upthere are always corrections nothing goes straight up. so, theres nothing unusual about corrections. you can go back to any bull market and youll see theres a range between the high and low for any stoc

21、k during the bull market. theres about a 40 percent range between the top and the bottom.march 26, 2011the dynamics of a bull marketive been trying to explain to people for a long time whats going on, but for some reason nobody listens.normally at this stage of the commodity bull market you would ex

22、pect new capacity to be coming on stream. the problem of course is that in 2008 and 2009 everybody got hit. so, many of the people who were thinking about adding capacity have pulled back, cancelled, delayed, rescheduled, etc. fortunately or unfortunately, the supply side of the equation seems to be

23、 getting worse not better.previous bull markets in commodities have lasted 15 or 20 years. this ones going to last at least that long if not longer.march 25, 2011commodities: is a correction coming?i have no idea. cotton has gone up very far, very fast; but, given it was down for thirty years you mi

24、ght not think its gone up so much on any kind of compounded rate.there are always corrections nothing goes straight up. so, theres nothing unusual about corrections. you can go back to any bull market and youll see theres a range between the high and low for any stock during the bull market. theres

25、about a 40% range between the top and the bottom. thats the same for commodities.i have no idea when or what will cause the corrections, but i sure know theyre coming. they always have and they always will.in related: elements rogers intl commodity index - agriculture total return etn (nyse:rja), po

26、wershares db agriculture fund (nyse:dba), ipath s&p gsci crude oil total return (nyse:oil), united states natural gas fund, lp (nyse:ung), ipath dow jones-ubs cotton subindex total return etn (nyse:bal)march 23, 2011index investing vs. active managementindex investing outperforms active management y

27、ear after year. - in brainy quotemarch 22, 2011there will be lots of social unrest worldwide“there will be lots of social unrest worldwide with governments and countries falling. others will have crises before china especially in the west asia perhaps even india.” - related: elements rogers intl com

28、modity index - agriculture total return etn (nyse:rja), ipath msci india index etn (nyse:inp) , ishares ftse/xinhua china 25 index (etf) (nyse:fxi)march 21, 2011us dollars tipping point“somewhere along the line were going to have a tipping point for the dollar, then its all over. i thought it would

29、happen in a few years; maybe its going to happen in a few weeks.” - in wallstcheatsheetmarch 18, 2011i am concerned about the yen“im concerned. what do i do now? obviously the yen cannot continue to be a good long. japan seems determined to debase the yen, which they may be about to do.” - in market

30、watchmarch 17, 2011what to do when serious events cause panic sellingnormally, when you have serious events like this, theres panic selling. the best thing to do historically its been to wait a little while and then buy into the panic selling.in 1995 when they had the kobe earthquake, the japanese s

31、tock market went down 25% but ended the year almost flat. - in cnbcrelated: ishares msci japan index (etf) (nyse:ewj)march 16, 2011nuclear fears will increase demand for oiltheres going to be a much bigger demand for oil from power plants because nuclear power plants are being shut around the world.

32、 - in cnbcrelated: exxon mobil (xom), united states oil fund (uso), marathon oil (mro), ipath oil fund etf (oil), conocophillips (cop)japan disaster strengthens case for commoditieslatest cnbc video interview, march 15march 15, 2011japan disaster: its going to increase demand for many commoditiesyes

33、, this is going to increase demand for many commodities. this is the new source of demand for copper and lead and things that nobody expected of new demand coming out of japan, now there is a lot of new demand coming out of japan. if the rest of the world goes into an economic slowdown because of th

34、is, then governments around the world are going to print even more money, that is the wrong thing to do but that is what they will do and whenever they print money, it is good for real asset, commodities. - in economic timesmarch 14, 2011japans disaster and how it impacts commoditiesno, it will incr

35、ease demand because with the nuclear power plants being closed down or damaged or under duress, japan will have to import more oil, everybody in the world will now look at their nuclear power plants again and probably have more demand for oil and natural gas. japan is now going to rebuild, that is g

36、oing to cause big increases in demand for copper and other things. japan wasnt building very much in the past 10-15 years, now there is going to be a big jump in the demand for building materials in japan. - in economic timesrelated: united states natural gas fund, lp (public, nyse:ung), united stat

37、es oil fund lp (etf) (public, nyse:uso)march 14, 2011yen, japanese market and how to play the disasterthe way yen has depreciated and japanese markets have come down, do you think this is more like a panic reaction?yes, normally whenever there is an artificial event like this, it is a terrible trage

38、dy, but also buying opportunity because we assume we are not going to have gigantic earthquakes every year. so it is normally a buying opportunity. it is a question of when you step in to buy.in economic timesrelated: ishares msci japan index (etf) (nyse:ewj)march 9, 2011cnbc video: jim rogers on cn

39、bc kudlow reporttopics: ben bernanke, us dollar, commodities, foreign currencies, saudi arabia, silver, rice, natural gas, china, commodities supply, agricultural commodities;related: united states natural gas fund (ung), elements rogers intl commodity index - agriculture total return etn (rja), uni

40、ted states oil fund (uso), ishares silver etf (slv)march 8, 2011commodities are still extremely depressed on a historic basisyes, commodities have been going up recently, but they are still extremely depressed on a historic basis - in cnbcrelated: elements rogers intl commodity index - agriculture t

41、otal return etn (nyse:rja)march 7, 2011huge bull market in agriculturehuge bull market in agriculture. agriculture prices are still extremely depressed on a historic basis. you know, the price of sugar has gone up 600% in the last 6 years, 5 years. it is still 50% below its all time high. 50% below

42、its all time high. the scope for price increases in agriculture is staggering. - in bloombergrelated: powershares db agriculture fund (nyse:dba), elements rogers intl commodity index - agriculture total return etn (nyse:rja), ipath dow jones-ubs cotton subindex total return etn (nyse:bal)march 7, 20

43、11gold will go over 2,000, silver will go over 50.gold will go to 2000 dollars in this decade. its pretty simple as far as im concerned. silver will certainly go over 50 dollars. the old high on silver was 50 usd. silver will go to new highs again. all these prices are going to go to absurd levels b

44、y the end of the decade, by the end of the bull market. - in bloombergrelated: spdr gold trust (etf) (nyse:gld) , ishares silver trust (etf) (nyse:slv)march 6, 2011commodities & us dollara commodities bull market is in place, no matter what happens to the dollar - in www.thenational.aemarch 5, 2011o

45、il outlook: prices, saudi arabia & reservessaudi arabia has been lying about their reserves for decades. saudi arabia the last two times said we are going to increase production and they could not increase production.they told george bush they would increase production and they could not.dont fall f

46、or that.the reason oil is going up is because the world is running out of known reserves of oil. i dont know what will happen in the middle east, if it all blows up tomorrow afternoon, it will go there (all time highs) next week. but if it does not, if things calm down, oil will go back down for a w

47、hile. but the world is running out of known reserves of oil. these are simple facts.related stocks: exxon mobil corporation (nyse:xom), chevron corporation (nyse:cvx), halliburton company (nyse:hal) , schlumberger limited. (nyse:slb), repsol ypf, s.a. (adr) (nyse:rep), murphy oil corporation (nyse:m

48、ur), conocophillips (nyse:cop), marathon oil corporation (nyse:mro), occidental petroleum corporation (nyse:oxy) , hess corp. (nyse:hes), petroleo brasileiro sa (adr) (nyse:pbr), conocophillips (cop), united states oil fund etfits a basic fact of life that many things everybody knows turn out to be

49、wrong.march 4, 2011shorting emerging markets and nasdaq stocksi am shorting emerging markets, i am shorting nasdaq stocks right now. that was has been over exploited. - in brelated: ishares msci emerging markets indx (etf) (nyse:eem) , market vector russia etf trust (nyse:rsx) , ishares msci brazil

50、index (etf) (nyse:ewz) , amazon (amzn), apple (aapl), juniper networks (jnpr), akamai tech (akam), netflix (nflx), s (crm)bloomberg video interview: middle east, oil, emerging markets & nasdaq stockslatest jim rogers video interview on bloomberg tv: rogers says hes short emerging market, nasdaq stoc

51、ksjim rogers, chairman of rogers holdings, talks about his investment strategy for global stocks and commodities. gold advanced, approaching a record, as tensions in the middle east boosted oil prices, increasing demand for precious metals as a protector of wealth and hedge against inflation. rogers

52、 also discusses his strategy for the u.s. dollar. he speaks in hong kong with rishaad salamat on bloomberg televisions on the move asia. (source: bloomberg)the commodities bull market does not depend on the us dollara commodities bull market is in place, no matter what happens to the dollar - in www

53、.thenational.aerelated: elements rogers intl commodity index - agriculture total return etn (nyse:rja), powershares db agriculture fund (nyse:dba) , powershares db base metals fund (etf) (nyse:dbb) , spdr gold trust (etf) (nyse:gld) , ishares silver trust (etf) (nyse:slv), ipath dow jones-ubs cotton

54、 subindex total return etn (nyse:bal)us dollar pegs are no way to run a currencythe moment is coming when the flaws in the us dollar are going to come home to roost. being tied to the us dollar isnt a good way to run a currency these days.i would think your currency would be better off being free-fl

55、oated. youve got gigantic reserves of oil. the us has gigantic reserves of debt. - in global financial markets forum, abu dhabirelated: united states oil fund lp (etf) (nyse:uso) , ipath s&p gsci crude oil total return (public, nyse:oil) , powershares db us dollar index bullish (nyse:uup) , powersha

56、res db us dollar index bearish (nyse:udn)march 3, 2011highlights of the national bank of abu dhabi forumcommodities are still mr. rogers main focus but he is also shorting the nasdaq and emerging markets as a hedge, and holds us dollars, temporarily at least because it thinks the dollar is undervalu

57、ed at the moment. - in national bank of abu dhabi forum (gold seek)march 2, 2011stock performance in an inflationary environment“in the 70s, most stocks did badly. the only stocks that did well were commodity stocks. thats going to happen again.” - in bloombergrelated: newmont mining corporation (nyse:nem), exxon mobil corporation (nyse:xom), freeport-mcmoran copper & gold inc. (nyse:fcx), rio tinto plc (adr) (nyse:rio), vale (adr) (nyse:vale), petroleo brasileiro sa (adr) (nyse:pbr), conocophillips (nyse:cop)march 1, 2011saudi arabia has been lying about oil reservessaudi arabia has been