風電并網(wǎng)對系統(tǒng)運行的影響和對策

1、Reliable PowerReliable MarketsReliable PeopleReliable PowerReliable MarketsReliable People風電并網(wǎng)對系統(tǒng)運行的影響和對策風電并網(wǎng)對系統(tǒng)運行的影響和對策Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems and Market Operations Impact & Solution胡明 Ming Hu運行規(guī)劃 (Operation Planning)系統(tǒng)運行及可靠性 (O & R)阿爾伯塔省電力運行機構(gòu)(AESO)2阿爾伯塔省電力工業(yè)概況阿爾伯塔省電力工業(yè)概況Alber

2、tas Electric Industry 最大負荷最大負荷 (Peak load)：9,775 MW 年負荷系數(shù)年負荷系數(shù) (annual load factor)：80% 裝機容量裝機容量 (Installed Capacity)：12,368 MW 280臺發(fā)電機組臺發(fā)電機組 (generating units) 200電力交易商電力交易商 (Wholesale market participants) 21,000 km 輸電線輸電線 (Transmission line) 2對外聯(lián)絡(luò)線對外聯(lián)絡(luò)線 (Interties)：與：與BC省省780MW；與與 Sask.省省 150 MWBC

3、Alta.Sask.煤電煤電 Coal 5,893 MW燃氣電廠燃氣電廠 Gas 4,895MW其它其它 Other214 MW風電風電 Wind523 MW水電水電 869MW主要風電項目主要風電項目 開開發(fā)地區(qū)發(fā)地區(qū) (Primary region) 11,000 MW 風電風電項目意向項目意向 (Wind power Interest)300 KM3風電大規(guī)模并網(wǎng)對系統(tǒng)運行帶來的挑戰(zhàn)風電大規(guī)模并網(wǎng)對系統(tǒng)運行帶來的挑戰(zhàn)The System Operation Challenge of Large-Scale Wind Power Integration 如何應(yīng)對風電出力變化和不確定性如何應(yīng)

4、對風電出力變化和不確定性How to handle the variability and uncertainty in System Operation理解風電出力的變化規(guī)律理解風電出力的變化規(guī)律 (風電出力變化研究風電出力變化研究)Understand the wind power variability (Wind power variability study)理解風電出力的不確定性理解風電出力的不確定性 (風電出力預(yù)測試點項目風電出力預(yù)測試點項目)Understand wind power uncertainty (Wind power forecast pilot project)

5、理解和評估對系統(tǒng)運行的影響理解和評估對系統(tǒng)運行的影響 (系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析, 1)Understand and assess the potential impact on system operation (System Impact study, phase-1)評估潛在的系統(tǒng)應(yīng)對措施及手段評估潛在的系統(tǒng)應(yīng)對措施及手段 (系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析, 2)Assess potential mitigation solutions (System Impact study, phase-2)應(yīng)對措施的實施應(yīng)對措施的實施 (發(fā)展風電的市場及運行框架發(fā)展風電的市場及運行框架)Solution

6、s implementation (Market & Operation Framework)4理解風電出力的不穩(wěn)定性理解風電出力的不穩(wěn)定性Understand the wind power variability AESO 和風電行業(yè)合作，完成了和風電行業(yè)合作，完成了 “阿爾伯塔風電出力變化研究阿爾伯塔風電出力變化研究”AESO work with wind industry, contracted GENIVAR (Phoenix Engineering) to conduct “Alberta wind power variability study” 研究結(jié)果提供了研究結(jié)果提供了200

7、4年風電出力全年每分鐘的仿真結(jié)果年風電出力全年每分鐘的仿真結(jié)果 / Provided simulated minute-to-minute wind power data for the whole year (2004) 基于基于2004年氣候測量數(shù)據(jù)，未來風電發(fā)站方案及風電場模型年氣候測量數(shù)據(jù)，未來風電發(fā)站方案及風電場模型 / Based on measured meteorology data across southern Alberta of potential future wind farms and wind power production simulation model

8、4個未來風電發(fā)站方案個未來風電發(fā)站方案 / For 4 scenarios (250MW, 900MW, 1500MW and 2000MW)250MW為為2004年已有規(guī)模，用于模型驗證年已有規(guī)模，用于模型驗證 / The 250MW was the existing wind power scenario, for the purpose of wind power production simulation model validation 為下一步的為下一步的 “風電的系統(tǒng)影響風電的系統(tǒng)影響”提供必要的基礎(chǔ)和數(shù)據(jù)提供必要的基礎(chǔ)和數(shù)據(jù) / The data was required an

9、d used later for AESO “Wind power system Impact studies” 研究的主要結(jié)論研究的主要結(jié)論: 風電出力的不穩(wěn)定隨著發(fā)展規(guī)模的增加而增大風電出力的不穩(wěn)定隨著發(fā)展規(guī)模的增加而增大, 但由于分布但由于分布的分散互補性，并非按比例增大。的分散互補性，并非按比例增大。 / A key conclusion of this study: The wind power variability does increase with the wind power development level, but not proportionally due to

10、diversification5理解風電出力的不穩(wěn)定性理解風電出力的不穩(wěn)定性(2) 分散互補性分散互補性 Understand the Variability of Wind Power (2) Diversification 不同分布的風電場出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加不同分布的風電場出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加 分散互補的影響分散互補的影響The combined variability of different wind farms Diversification impact 不同分布的風電場出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加不是簡單的算術(shù)疊加，而是向量疊加，不同分布的風電場出力不穩(wěn)定性的疊加不是簡單的算術(shù)疊加，而是向量

11、疊加，向量的方向取決于不同風電場的相關(guān)情況。向量的方向取決于不同風電場的相關(guān)情況。The combined variability (random nature) is the vector-sum of each individual variability other than simple-sum 完全正相關(guān)完全正相關(guān) 相互獨立相互獨立 完全反相關(guān)完全反相關(guān) positive correlate independent negative correlate 空間分散空間分散 / 時間互補時間互補 (Diversification: Space / Time) 對短時出力變化互補明顯對短時

12、出力變化互補明顯 morefor short-term variability 對長期出力變化互補性減低對長期出力變化互補性減低 (持續(xù)增減持續(xù)增減)lessand morefor long-term variability (Ramping issue) 取決于風場的位置分布和風向取決于風場的位置分布和風向 / Also related with location distribution of wind farms and wind directions 6理解風電出力的不確定性理解風電出力的不確定性 風電出力預(yù)測試點項目風電出力預(yù)測試點項目Understand the Uncertain

13、ty of Wind Power (1) - Forecasting Pilot Project 試點三種不同的預(yù)測方法試點三種不同的預(yù)測方法 ，為期，為期1年年 / Trial three very different forecasting methods over a one year period:AWS Truewind (US)WEPROG (Denmark)Energy and Meteo (Germany) 分別針對分別針對4個不同地理氣候條件的地區(qū)個不同地理氣候條件的地區(qū) 4 different geographic terrains / wind regimes in Al

14、berta 每小時提供未來每小時提供未來1-48小時的平均風速，矗立及小時的平均風速，矗立及變化變化 / T-1 to T-48 hours forecasted refreshed hourly (w/s, MWs, ramp rate) 7個現(xiàn)有風場，個現(xiàn)有風場，5個未來風場個未來風場 / 7 existing and 5 future facilities to represent geographic diversity and future expansion 統(tǒng)一的風場氣象數(shù)據(jù)收集統(tǒng)一的風場氣象數(shù)據(jù)收集 / On-site Met Data Collection by GENIVA

15、R 獨立的結(jié)果分析獨立的結(jié)果分析 / Independent analytical analysis from ORTECH Power Funded by Alberta Electric System OperatorAlberta Energy Research InstituteAlberta Department Of Energy7理解風電出力的不確定性理解風電出力的不確定性 (2) 預(yù)測誤差實例預(yù)測誤差實例Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power (2) - forecast error example 時間誤差時間誤差Phase Erro

16、r誤報誤報False Alarm變化率誤差變化率誤差Ramp Rate漏報漏報Miss8理解風電的不確定性理解風電的不確定性 (3) Understand the Uncertainty of Wind Power - (3) 不確定性不等同于變化不確定性不等同于變化 / Uncertainty is different than Variability 不確定性只是無法預(yù)測的變化預(yù)測誤差不確定性只是無法預(yù)測的變化預(yù)測誤差 Uncertainty is only the unpredictable variability forecast error 風電出力預(yù)測的相對誤差高于負荷預(yù)測風電出力

17、預(yù)測的相對誤差高于負荷預(yù)測 / The relative degree of uncertainty of wind power is bigger than load based on todays forecast capability1日前預(yù)測日前預(yù)測: 負荷一般負荷一般1-3%，風電，風電 10% (100%?) Day-ahead forecast: 1-3% error for load vs. 10% for wind power 準確預(yù)測風電出力變化有難度準確預(yù)測風電出力變化有難度 / The prediction of wind power ramping is challe

18、nging 常用的預(yù)測誤差指標，例如常用的預(yù)測誤差指標，例如: 平均平均|誤差誤差|、方差等不適用、方差等不適用 / The standard accuracy metrics used to describe forecast performance may not be applicable or meaningful to system operations, such as MAPE, RMSE because they can suppress ramping signals需要制定新的預(yù)測誤差指標，能夠全面反映幅值、相位、誤報、漏報及變化趨勢誤差需要制定新的預(yù)測誤差指標，能夠全面反

19、映幅值、相位、誤報、漏報及變化趨勢誤差 / Need some accuracy metrics that can describe not only magnitude error, but also phase error, false-alarm rate, capture-rate, ramping rate errorAESO制定了基于出力變化事件的幅值制定了基于出力變化事件的幅值/相位誤差圖相位誤差圖AESO developed an changing-event-based magnitude/phase accuracy chart to assess and understa

20、nd wind power forecast capability9理解風電出力變化及不確定對系統(tǒng)運行的影響理解風電出力變化及不確定對系統(tǒng)運行的影響Understand and Assess the System Impact of Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty (1) 系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵是要維持實時的系統(tǒng)供需平衡系統(tǒng)的關(guān)鍵是要維持實時的系統(tǒng)供需平衡 / System operation involves maintaining a constant balance between supply and demand 包括包括4個重要環(huán)節(jié)個重要環(huán)節(jié) /

21、Four key aspects to achieving system balance 預(yù)測維持系統(tǒng)供需平衡的平衡能力預(yù)測維持系統(tǒng)供需平衡的平衡能力 / Ability to forecast the balancing requirement 保證充足的系統(tǒng)資源保證充足的系統(tǒng)資源 / Adequate system resources for this requirement 容量，備用及調(diào)節(jié)控制能力容量，備用及調(diào)節(jié)控制能力 / Supply sources (generation) and control sources (ancillary services) 相應(yīng)的運行規(guī)程相應(yīng)的運行

22、規(guī)程 / Operating policies and procedures 實時的運行決策實時的運行決策 / Real-time operating decisions 風電出力變化及不確定對以上風電出力變化及不確定對以上4個環(huán)節(jié)均有影響個環(huán)節(jié)均有影響 / The variability and uncertainty of wind power may impact all of the above aspects 2種分析方法：理論分析，仿真分析種分析方法：理論分析，仿真分析Two ways to analyze impact: statistical and simulation10運

23、行預(yù)測運行預(yù)測 Operation Forecasting系統(tǒng)影響分析方法系統(tǒng)影響分析方法 / / System Impact Analysis Framework其它變化及不確定其它變化及不確定Othervariability & uncertainties系統(tǒng)整體系統(tǒng)整體變化變化及不確定及不確定System Overallvariability & uncertainties負荷變化及不確定負荷變化及不確定Loadvariability &uncertainties風電變化及不確定風電變化及不確定Wind Power variability & uncertainties區(qū)域控制誤差區(qū)域控

24、制誤差A(yù)CE性能指標性能指標1CPS1性能指標性能指標2CPS2輸電能力越限輸電能力越限OTCViolation基于理論的統(tǒng)計分析基于理論的統(tǒng)計分析Statistical analysis實時調(diào)度模擬實時調(diào)度模擬/ Real-timeDispatch simulation衡量各種變化的指標衡量各種變化的指標Variability indices發(fā)電備用調(diào)度發(fā)電備用調(diào)度模擬結(jié)果模擬結(jié)果Simulation of Energy market, Regulating reserve & Tie flow模擬的模擬的性能指標性能指標Simulated results of:ACE, CPS2OTC v

25、iolations非計劃潮流非計劃潮流UnscheduledInterchange運行性能運行性能評估評估 Performance Assessment潮流交換潮流交換發(fā)電調(diào)度發(fā)電調(diào)度備用調(diào)度備用調(diào)度Interchange schedulingEnergy market dispatch Ancillary services各種運行規(guī)程各種運行規(guī)程Operating policies & procedures11統(tǒng)計分析實例：統(tǒng)計分析實例：1小時的變化分析小時的變化分析Statistic analysis example: 1 hour variability負荷與風電出力相互獨負荷與風電出力

26、相互獨立立The variability of load and wind power are independent隨著風電的增加，風電隨著風電的增加，風電出力對系統(tǒng)整體的變化出力對系統(tǒng)整體的變化及不確定的影響從可忽及不確定的影響從可忽略到共同主導略到共同主導As wind power increase, the wind power variability can increase the overall system variability to a level that can not be ignored and more dominate12統(tǒng)計分析實例：統(tǒng)計分析實例：4小時的系統(tǒng)

27、不確定性影響小時的系統(tǒng)不確定性影響Statistic analysis example: 4 hour uncertainty風電不確定性對系風電不確定性對系統(tǒng)整體不確定性的統(tǒng)整體不確定性的影響隨電規(guī)模增大影響隨電規(guī)模增大而增大而增大 / The wind power uncertainty can have ignorable or significant impact on overall system uncertainty depend on the penetration level and timeframes風電增加對系統(tǒng)不風電增加對系統(tǒng)不確定性的影響更加確定性的影響更加顯著顯著

28、Wind power uncertainty could increase faster than load as level increase13統(tǒng)計分析實例：風電出力持續(xù)變化分析統(tǒng)計分析實例：風電出力持續(xù)變化分析Statistic analysis example: Changing event-based analysis250MW900MW1500MW2000MW隨著風電規(guī)模的增大隨著風電規(guī)模的增大There will be more, longer and faster persistent system changing as wind penetration increase對調(diào)

29、節(jié)跟蹤能力有限對調(diào)節(jié)跟蹤能力有限的系統(tǒng)帶來壓力的系統(tǒng)帶來壓力 It put pressure on system with limited ramping capability 幅度幅度1400-1600MW 歷歷時時5-6小時小時系統(tǒng)持續(xù)變化系統(tǒng)持續(xù)變化發(fā)生發(fā)生4次次 / there is 4 changing events with duration of 5-6 hours and ramp-down magnitude of 1400-1600MW 14Step 2: 每分鐘仿真每分鐘仿真1-minute simulation 仿真分析，方法及假設(shè)條件仿真分析，方法及假設(shè)條件Simul

30、ation-based analysis, Methodology and AssumptionStep 3: 計算對運行性能的影響計算對運行性能的影響 / Calculate impact to system performance criteriaCPS2OTC violationStep 1: 發(fā)電調(diào)度決策仿真發(fā)電調(diào)度決策仿真Determine Energy Market Dispatch(Every 20 minutes) 未來未來20分鐘調(diào)度決策分鐘調(diào)度決策Energy Market Dispatch for next 20 minutes當前調(diào)度誤差當前調(diào)度誤差Current Su

31、pply-Demand Imbalance (ACE)預(yù)期負荷變化預(yù)期負荷變化Expected Load change 潮流交換計劃潮流交換計劃Interchange Schedule change風電出力預(yù)測風電出力預(yù)測Expected wind generation (persistent forecast )調(diào)度有效性準則調(diào)度有效性準則出力調(diào)度幅度應(yīng)出力調(diào)度幅度應(yīng) 20MWDispatch validationMW threshold, if imbalance within +/- 20MW, no instruction is made and any imbalance is ha

32、ndled by RR or ACE計算調(diào)度出力變化，考慮系統(tǒng)計算調(diào)度出力變化，考慮系統(tǒng)應(yīng)變速度和相應(yīng)時間應(yīng)變速度和相應(yīng)時間Calculate the Energy market movement with ramping capability limitation and response delay 計算調(diào)度出力與實際需求間的誤差計算調(diào)度出力與實際需求間的誤差 / Calculate the mismatch between supply and demand計算平衡計算平衡出力出力誤差所需的調(diào)節(jié)備用誤差所需的調(diào)節(jié)備用 / Calculate required regulating res

33、erve movement to balance the mismatch 10% of MW range/min無法平衡的誤差即為無法平衡的誤差即為“區(qū)域控制誤區(qū)域控制誤差差” Remaining mismatch is simulated ACE遞歸迭代算法遞歸迭代算法Recursive Iteration Algorithm15基于仿真的分析，仿真模型分析界面基于仿真的分析，仿真模型分析界面Simulation-based analysis, Simulation model GUI Load風電出力風電出力Wind power仿真調(diào)度出力仿真調(diào)度出力Simulated EMD歷史調(diào)度出

34、力歷史調(diào)度出力Historical EMD潮流輸出限制潮流輸出限制Export Limit潮流輸入限制潮流輸入限制Import Limit潮流計劃潮流計劃InterchangeSchedule仿真潮流交換仿真潮流交換Simulated Interchange歷史區(qū)控誤差歷史區(qū)控誤差HIST. ACE仿真區(qū)控誤差仿真區(qū)控誤差SIM. ACE調(diào)節(jié)備用容量調(diào)節(jié)備用容量RR range仿真?zhèn)溆谜{(diào)度仿真?zhèn)溆谜{(diào)度SIM. RR dispatch仿真區(qū)控誤差SIM. ACE仿真性能指標越限仿真性能指標越限SIM. CPS2 Violation余度余度Ld-Ld20-min moving minimum of

35、f-schedule輸電可靠性備用輸電可靠性備用TRMSystem data quality TagWind power data quality Tag16系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析 1 結(jié)論結(jié)論System Impact Study phase-1 conclusions 4個風電開發(fā)方案個風電開發(fā)方案(包括包括1個當前方案，驗正模型個當前方案，驗正模型)，用以確定風電增加對系統(tǒng)，用以確定風電增加對系統(tǒng)的增量影響。所有個風電發(fā)展方案都有性能指標越陷的問題的增量影響。所有個風電發(fā)展方案都有性能指標越陷的問題4 wind development scenarios (existing + 3 f

36、uture), to identify the incremental impact effect. All 3 growth scenarios studied resulted in one or more performance violations. 分析結(jié)果顯示風電增加和系統(tǒng)運行控制性能指標下降和傳輸能力越限的因果分析結(jié)果顯示風電增加和系統(tǒng)運行控制性能指標下降和傳輸能力越限的因果關(guān)系關(guān)系 / There is an observable relationship between increased wind power development, Decreased CPS2 perf

37、ormance and Increased OTC violations. 大規(guī)模風電并網(wǎng)運行將需要制定、實施應(yīng)對措施以保證系統(tǒng)的安全可靠運行大規(guī)模風電并網(wǎng)運行將需要制定、實施應(yīng)對措施以保證系統(tǒng)的安全可靠運行It is highly likely that mitigating measures will need to be developed and implemented in order to integrate large scale wind power and maintain the reliable and safe system operation17調(diào)查評估各種針對出力變

38、化和不確定性的應(yīng)對措施調(diào)查評估各種針對出力變化和不確定性的應(yīng)對措施 系統(tǒng)影響分析系統(tǒng)影響分析Investigate and Assess Different Mitigation solutions of Power Variability and Uncertainty (10) System Impact Study phase-2 有效的應(yīng)對措施包括： / Effective mitigating measures for wind power integration are: 風電出力預(yù)測 / wind power forecasting 增加發(fā)電調(diào)度的可控變化能力 / More en

39、ergy market ramping capability 增加的調(diào)節(jié)備用或追蹤備用容量 / additional regulating or following service 風電出力管理 / wind power management 無效的應(yīng)對措施 / The ineffective mitigating measures are: 負荷的自然增長 / Increases in AIES load 增加調(diào)節(jié)備用的調(diào)節(jié)速度 / Increasing the regulating reserves ramp rate18風電出力變化及不確定應(yīng)對措施的實施風電出力變化及不確定應(yīng)對措施的實施

40、 AESO發(fā)展風電市場發(fā)展風電市場&運行框架運行框架Solutions of Wind Power Variability and Uncertainty- AESO Market and Operation Framework (MOF) for Wind Power Integration (1) 原則：在保證系統(tǒng)安全可靠運行和市場公平和效率的同時盡量增加風電的并網(wǎng)原則：在保證系統(tǒng)安全可靠運行和市場公平和效率的同時盡量增加風電的并網(wǎng)Tointegrate as much wind power into the Alberta system as is feasible without co

41、mpromisingsystem reliability or the fair, efficient and openly competitive operation of the market. 目的是建立一個穩(wěn)固的基礎(chǔ)作為通過實踐不斷改進完善的起點目的是建立一個穩(wěn)固的基礎(chǔ)作為通過實踐不斷改進完善的起點The intent is to develop a solid starting point from which to continuously improve 建立適當?shù)臋C制使得市場力量能夠優(yōu)化解決方案建立適當?shù)臋C制使得市場力量能夠優(yōu)化解決方案 / To set up proper m

42、echanism to allow the market force lead to solutions optimization 在獲得合理風電出力預(yù)測的前提下，運行人員可以制定計劃采用以下措施吸收預(yù)在獲得合理風電出力預(yù)測的前提下，運行人員可以制定計劃采用以下措施吸收預(yù)測的分風電發(fā)電測的分風電發(fā)電 / The premise If the System Operator receives a reasonable forecast of wind power generation, then they can establish an operating plan to accommodat

43、e the forecast wind energy by using the following resources / tools:預(yù)測預(yù)測 / Forecasting發(fā)電調(diào)度排序發(fā)電調(diào)度排序 / The Energy Market Merit Order調(diào)節(jié)備用調(diào)節(jié)備用 / Regulating Reserves跟蹤備用跟蹤備用 / Wind Following Services風電出力管理風電出力管理 / Wind Power Management 19市場運行框架市場運行框架 具體工作具體工作AESO MOF for Wind Power Integration Work strea

44、ms 市場&運行規(guī)則 / Market & Operating Rules 風電出力管理 / Wind Power Management 風電出力預(yù)測 / Wind Power Forecasting 額外的輔助服務(wù)的預(yù)測和獲取 / Additional Accessory Services Forecast / Procurement 系統(tǒng)運行輔助軟件工具系統(tǒng)運行輔助軟件工具 / System Operator Tools 接入系統(tǒng) / Interconnection 接入排序管理 / Queue Management Practices 接入系統(tǒng)標準 (出力管理、預(yù)測等) / Standa

45、rds for Interconnection (Power Management & Forecasting Requirement) 電源發(fā)展方案預(yù)測方法 / Generator Scenario Development Methodology 輸電網(wǎng)規(guī)劃 / Transmission Planning 鼓勵分散多樣性 / Diversity20具體工作之一運行輔助軟件工具具體工作之一運行輔助軟件工具MOF Work Stream (1) Operator tools 分析工具 / Engineering tool 用以在設(shè)計、測試各種可能實施的運行規(guī)程 / To design and t

46、est protocols, procedures before implementation into OPPs 實時運行的輔助工具 / Real-time system operation tool 用以幫助有效管理 / To effectively manage: 各種規(guī)程的實時操作 / The procedures in the real-time 保證復(fù)雜運行決策的有效、一致和透明度 / complicated real-time system operation with Efficiency, Consistency and Transparency 提供知識、信息、經(jīng)驗共享和不

47、斷完善的共享平臺Common basis for knowledge sharing, experience and continuous improvement21運行輔助軟件工具的功能框架運行輔助軟件工具的功能框架Work stream Tools: Architecture各種分析評估各種分析評估Operation assessmentTo balance between Supply and DemandTo assess the situation & risk of: System Ramping Capability Supply Shortfall issue Supply Surplus (Zero-offer) issue Minimum technical output issue OTC violation issueActual Generator output (PI) Energy & RRDispatch logs (EMS)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài)系統(tǒng)狀態(tài) / System StatusL