保證社會公正的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中吸取的教訓(xùn)PPT課件

1、Growth with Social Justice:lessons from global economic crisis 保證社會公正的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：保證社會公正的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長：從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中吸取的教訓(xùn)從全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中吸取的教訓(xùn)- What caused it? Why did it affect Asian countries?- 原因是什么？為什么影響到亞洲國家？原因是什么？為什么影響到亞洲國家？ - How are govts addressing the issues? - 政府怎樣應(yīng)對危機(jī)？政府怎樣應(yīng)對危機(jī)？- What can we learn from it? - 我們從中吸取到哪

2、些經(jīng)驗？我們從中吸取到哪些經(jīng)驗？Outflow of capital from Asia (100 billion $ in 2008) Asian economies, stock markets & currencies affected 資本從亞洲撤離資本從亞洲撤離（2008年超過年超過1000億美元）億美元）亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)、股市和貨幣受到影響亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)、股市和貨幣受到影響Recession in western markets affected Asian production, employment & economic growth 西方市場衰退對亞洲制造業(yè)的就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長

3、造成西方市場衰退對亞洲制造業(yè)的就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長造成影響影響Impact of credit squeeze on domestic investments, industry & jobs 信貸緊縮對國內(nèi)投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)和就業(yè)造成影響信貸緊縮對國內(nèi)投資、產(chǎn)業(yè)和就業(yè)造成影響Remittances, foreign aid, govt revenue all went down 國外匯款、外國外匯款、外援、政府財政收入援、政府財政收入紛紛下降紛紛下降212 mn jobless world wide in 2009 crisis added atleast 34 mn more since 200

4、7 2009年全球失業(yè)人口達(dá)到年全球失業(yè)人口達(dá)到2.12億億自自2007年以來危機(jī)造成年以來危機(jī)造成至少至少3400萬人失業(yè)萬人失業(yè)Loss to pension funds: over 5 trillion $ between 2007 & 2008) higher loss in countries where pensions were privatized 養(yǎng)老基金損失：養(yǎng)老基金損失：2007-2008年間損失了年間損失了5萬多億美元萬多億美元養(yǎng)老金私有化的國家遭受更嚴(yán)重的損失養(yǎng)老金私有化的國家遭受更嚴(yán)重的損失Wage cuts/wage freeze real wages f

5、ell from 4.7% in 2007 to 1.5% in 2008 situation worsened in 2009, 工資削減、工資增長停滯工資削減、工資增長停滯-實際工資實際工資增長率從增長率從2007年的年的4.7%下降到了下降到了2008年的年的1.5%-2009年形勢繼續(xù)惡化年形勢繼續(xù)惡化Default on social security contributions, rise in unprotected precarious work, violations of FoA & CBAs 停止社會保障繳納、不受保護(hù)的非正規(guī)停止社會保障繳納、不受保護(hù)的非正規(guī)就業(yè)

6、增加、結(jié)社自由和集體談判權(quán)利受到侵害就業(yè)增加、結(jié)社自由和集體談判權(quán)利受到侵害Over dependence on exports & western markets 過度依賴出口過度依賴出口和西方市場和西方市場For economic & social stability - countries also need domestic markets how to develop & expand domestic & regional markets?對于經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會穩(wěn)定對于經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會穩(wěn)定各國需要發(fā)展國內(nèi)市場各國需要發(fā)展國內(nèi)市場怎樣發(fā)展和擴(kuò)怎樣發(fā)展和擴(kuò)大國內(nèi)和區(qū)域

7、市場？大國內(nèi)和區(qū)域市場？Reduce widening inequalities: need for wages & incomes policy in the country to ensure equitable sharing in growth/productivity 減少不斷擴(kuò)大的差異：各國需要采取工資減少不斷擴(kuò)大的差異：各國需要采取工資/收入政策，保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長收入政策，保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和生產(chǎn)率增加所帶來的成果平等分享和生產(chǎn)率增加所帶來的成果平等分享Labour standards & development: role of right to organize, co

8、llective bargaining & social security 勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和發(fā)展：組織權(quán)利、勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)和發(fā)展：組織權(quán)利、集體談判權(quán)利和社會保障權(quán)利的作用集體談判權(quán)利和社會保障權(quán)利的作用Theory: Rich invest, poor consume so redistribute income towards the rich to promote growth - and rising tide will lift all boats 理論：有錢人投資，窮人消費(fèi)理論：有錢人投資，窮人消費(fèi)所以收入再分配要傾向于有錢所以收入再分配要傾向于有錢人以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長人以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長水漲

9、船高水漲船高 But what has happened? 但是事實如何？但是事實如何？Growth yes but widening inequalities 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長伴隨著貧富差距擴(kuò)大經(jīng)濟(jì)增長伴隨著貧富差距擴(kuò)大Decline in labours share of GDP 勞動力占勞動力占GDP的比例下降的比例下降the richest 10% own 85% of the global assets (2000). 最富有的最富有的10%擁有全球擁有全球資產(chǎn)的資產(chǎn)的85%（2000年）。年）。50% of the world population owns less than 1% of

10、 the global assets. 50%的全的全球人口擁有不到球人口擁有不到1%的全球資產(chǎn)。的全球資產(chǎn)。Source: UNU-WIDER中國：貧困人口減少、貧富差距拉大中國：貧困人口減少、貧富差距拉大between 1981 & 2001, population below poverty line fell from 53% to just 8% (Ravallion & Chen, 2007) 1981年年-2001年間，低于貧困線人口年間，低于貧困線人口從從53%下降到了下降到了8%。but inequalities increased - Gini Coeffi

11、cient jumped from 0.32 in 1987 to 0.47 in 2009 但是貧富差距拉大但是貧富差距拉大基尼系數(shù)從基尼系數(shù)從1987年的年的0.32增加到了增加到了2009年的年的0.47.average per capita wealth in 2010: $17,126 BUT median wealth was just $6,327 - it means wealth created has not been evenly distributed (Source: 2010 Credit Suisse Global Wealth Report) 2010年人均財富

12、為年人均財富為17,126美元，但是財富中值僅為美元，但是財富中值僅為6,327美元美元這意味這意味著創(chuàng)造出來的財富沒有平均分配。著創(chuàng)造出來的財富沒有平均分配。! (China Daily) Share of wages in GDP dropped to about 37% (2005) from 56% in 1983 工工資占資占GDP的比例連續(xù)的比例連續(xù)22年下降！年下降！（中國日報）（中國日報）工資占工資占GDP的比例從的比例從1983年的年的56%下降到了下降到了2005年的年的37%。Source: http:/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-139450

13、72過度依賴出口過度依賴出口Almost 60% of final demand for Asian goods comes from developed countries. 亞洲產(chǎn)品最終需求的亞洲產(chǎn)品最終需求的60%來自于發(fā)達(dá)國家來自于發(fā)達(dá)國家China: growth comes from investments and exports, household consumption contributed about 1/3rd of GDP in 2010 中國：投資中國：投資和出口帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，和出口帶動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，2010年家庭消費(fèi)對年家庭消費(fèi)對GDP的貢獻(xiàn)為的貢獻(xiàn)為1/3Expor

14、ts contributed about 50% to income growth of China (pre-2008) - makes China vulnerable to slowdown in the US & EU. 出口對中國收入增長的貢獻(xiàn)為出口對中國收入增長的貢獻(xiàn)為50%（2008年以前）年以前）- 這使得中國易這使得中國易受美歐經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退影響受美歐經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退影響Labour productivity in China has grown by about 20% per year, while real wages grew by less than half - sha

15、re of wages in value added has been declining 中國勞動生產(chǎn)率每年增長中國勞動生產(chǎn)率每年增長20%，而實際工資增長率不到，而實際工資增長率不到10%工工資占增值的比例在下降資占增值的比例在下降2/3rd of the income in Export sector goes to capital (a good part of it to foreign capital), less than 20% goes to labour 出口行業(yè)出口行業(yè)2/3的收入分配給資本（其中很的收入分配給資本（其中很大一部分為外資），只有不到大一部分為外資），只有不

16、到20%的收入分配給勞動者的收入分配給勞動者for the economy as a whole, share of wages in GDP fell to about 40% after fluctuating between 50 -55% in the 1990s - share of wages in export sector is lower than that for the economy as a whole 從整體經(jīng)濟(jì)來看，工資占從整體經(jīng)濟(jì)來看，工資占GDP的的比例在比例在20世紀(jì)世紀(jì)90年代浮動于年代浮動于50-55%，如今下降到，如今下降到40%左右左右出口行業(yè)工資出

17、口行業(yè)工資占比低于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)占比低于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)Requires becoming internationally competitive by keeping wages low, suppressing domestic consumption & keeping exchange rate undervalued (weakening of domestic currency) 為保持國際競爭力，為保持國際競爭力，需要壓低工資、壓制國內(nèi)消費(fèi)、保持貨幣貶值（削弱國內(nèi)貨幣流通）需要壓低工資、壓制國內(nèi)消費(fèi)、保持貨幣貶值（削弱國內(nèi)貨幣流通）Employment does not increas

18、e much since domestic demand and domestic market remain limited. Gains from growth are invested abroad (often) 由于國內(nèi)需求和國內(nèi)市場受到限制，就業(yè)不會大幅增加。由于國內(nèi)需求和國內(nèi)市場受到限制，就業(yè)不會大幅增加。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所帶來的成果（常常）用于海外投資。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長所帶來的成果（常常）用于海外投資。Moreover, if all countries are becoming export oriented, competition increases, prices keep falli

19、ng and gains start declining. 此外，如果所此外，如果所有國家都成為出口導(dǎo)向型國家，競爭將加劇，價格不斷下降，收益開有國家都成為出口導(dǎo)向型國家，競爭將加劇，價格不斷下降，收益開始減少。始減少。Need to address unequal income distribution between capital & labour - one of the root causes of global economic crisis, social conflicts and obstacle to Chinas growth in future. 有必要解決資本

20、和勞工之間收入有必要解決資本和勞工之間收入分配不公的問題分配不公的問題這是國際經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)、社會沖突和中國未來發(fā)展障礙這是國際經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)、社會沖突和中國未來發(fā)展障礙的根源之一。的根源之一。Need to shift from export led to domestic consumption led growth 有必有必要從出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閲鴥?nèi)消費(fèi)導(dǎo)向型模式。要從出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模式轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閲鴥?nèi)消費(fèi)導(dǎo)向型模式。Need for wage policy and labour standards to ensure that wage share in the GDP does not

21、go down so much as to leave workers with no choice but to resort to debt financed consumption 需要工資政策和勞需要工資政策和勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來保證工資占工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來保證工資占GDP的比例不會大幅下降，否則工人將失去選擇的比例不會大幅下降，否則工人將失去選擇的權(quán)利，只能尋求負(fù)債支撐的消費(fèi)。的權(quán)利，只能尋求負(fù)債支撐的消費(fèi)。Global Jobs Pact adopted in June 2009 2009年年6月通過的全球就業(yè)月通過的全球就業(yè)契約契約-a framework for Decent Work led p

22、olicies aimed at economic recovery with job creation and the provision of social protection to working people and their families at its core; 以體面勞動為基礎(chǔ)的政策，旨在通以體面勞動為基礎(chǔ)的政策，旨在通過創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、為勞動者及其家庭提供社會保護(hù)來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇；過創(chuàng)造就業(yè)、為勞動者及其家庭提供社會保護(hù)來促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇；Process: Tripartite dialogue with social partners for addressing the cri

23、sis & developing national policy response. 過程：社會伙伴通過三方過程：社會伙伴通過三方對話應(yīng)對危機(jī)，制定國家政策對策。對話應(yīng)對危機(jī)，制定國家政策對策。Focused on promoting use of wage policy tools, social protection and employment-led development policies with respect for workers rights 強(qiáng)調(diào)尊重工人權(quán)利，促進(jìn)工資政策工具、社會保護(hù)和就業(yè)導(dǎo)向型發(fā)展政強(qiáng)調(diào)尊重工人權(quán)利，促進(jìn)工資政策工具、社會保護(hù)和就業(yè)導(dǎo)向型發(fā)展政

24、策的運(yùn)用策的運(yùn)用Requires wages to grow along with labour productivity increases domestic demand and domestic market 要求工資與勞動生產(chǎn)率增長要求工資與勞動生產(chǎn)率增長保持一致保持一致增加國內(nèi)需求和國內(nèi)市場增加國內(nèi)需求和國內(nèi)市場When wage employment increases, the self-employed also enjoy an increase in demand for their products 當(dāng)工資就業(yè)增長，自雇就業(yè)也當(dāng)工資就業(yè)增長，自雇就業(yè)也會由于產(chǎn)品需求增加而

25、增長。會由于產(chǎn)品需求增加而增長。Same effect on the economy if labour standards are ensured - since standards enable sharing in gains of growth & spread of purchasing powers. 如果勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)得以保證，經(jīng)濟(jì)也會收到同樣效果如果勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)得以保證，經(jīng)濟(jì)也會收到同樣效果由于勞由于勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長成果的分享和購買力的擴(kuò)大。工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)保證經(jīng)濟(jì)增長成果的分享和購買力的擴(kuò)大。Right to Organize 組織權(quán)利組織權(quán)利Promote Collective b

26、argaining: makes wages more responsive to economic growth & reduces wage inequalities 促進(jìn)集體談判：讓促進(jìn)集體談判：讓工資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長一致，減少工資分配不平等工資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長一致，減少工資分配不平等Pro-active Minimum Wage policy - to be regularly reviewed & adapted thru tripartite social dialogue - helps to promote wage floor ensures sharing in gro

27、wth 積極的最低工資政策積極的最低工資政策通過三通過三方社會對話定期審議調(diào)整方社會對話定期審議調(diào)整促進(jìn)工資底線促進(jìn)工資底線保證增長成果分享保證增長成果分享Enforce labour contract law 執(zhí)行勞動合同法執(zhí)行勞動合同法Social security for all 覆蓋全民的社會保障覆蓋全民的社會保障Income of top 20% people is 18 times that of the lowest 20% people (Chinese Academy of Social Science) 收入最高的收入最高的20%的人口與收入的人口與收入最低的最低的20%的

28、人口收入差約的人口收入差約18倍倍 （中國社科院）（中國社科院）In 2006, salaried persons contributed 60% of the whole tax income, while the rich contributed only 10%. 2006年，工資收入者繳納了稅收年，工資收入者繳納了稅收收入的收入的60%，而有錢人僅繳納了，而有錢人僅繳納了10%Improve the taxation system, and reduce the burden on low income groups reform tax incentives to corporate

29、 sector. 改善稅收體系，減改善稅收體系，減少低收入群體負(fù)擔(dān)少低收入群體負(fù)擔(dān)改革企業(yè)稅收激勵機(jī)制。改革企業(yè)稅收激勵機(jī)制。Improve the social security coverage in urban and rural families use tax revenues & dividends of SOEs for social transfers & social investments. 改善社會保障對農(nóng)村和城鎮(zhèn)家庭的覆蓋改善社會保障對農(nóng)村和城鎮(zhèn)家庭的覆蓋使用稅收和國使用稅收和國企分紅來做社會轉(zhuǎn)移支付和社會投資。企分紅來做社會轉(zhuǎn)移支付和社會投資。Main

30、 drivers of growth: Investment and Exports - Private consumption low compared to other countries (Wages are the main source of consumption in China) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要引擎：投資和出口經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的主要引擎：投資和出口私人消私人消費(fèi)相對其他國家較低（工資是中國消費(fèi)的主要來源）費(fèi)相對其他國家較低（工資是中國消費(fèi)的主要來源）If investments are more than domestic consumption, then dependence on

31、 foreign markets is the only way out to maintain growth but can China continue to export at the same rate as in last decade? 如果投資高于國內(nèi)消費(fèi)，對國外市場的依賴是維持增長的唯一途徑如果投資高于國內(nèi)消費(fèi)，對國外市場的依賴是維持增長的唯一途徑但是中國能否繼續(xù)過去十年的出口率？但是中國能否繼續(xù)過去十年的出口率？If not, then the only way to maintain high growth is to raise domestic consumption which means policies to raise wage share & disposable incomes 如果不能，那維持高增長率的唯一方式就是提高如果不能，那維持高增長率的唯一方式就是提高國內(nèi)消費(fèi)國內(nèi)消費(fèi)這就意味著采取提高工資比例和可支配收入的政策這就意味著采取提高工資比例和可支配收入的政策Shift from export led to consumption led growth (domestic market) requires also Human Resource policie