地震危險(xiǎn)性分析PPT教案

1、會(huì)計(jì)學(xué)1地震危險(xiǎn)性分析地震危險(xiǎn)性分析第1頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第2頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第3頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第4頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第5頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)征。征。第6頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第7頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第8頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第9頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第10頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第11頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第12頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第13頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第14頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第15頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)bMaMN)(lg第16頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)!)exp()(kkPkii第17頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第18頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第19頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第20頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)P(yáng)otential source area delineationIdentify and characterize (geometry and potential M

2、) all earthquake sources capable of generating significant shaking at the site. See the figure above in which three sources are shown surrounding the site. For each source, develop the probability distribution of rupture locations within the source. A uniform probability distribution is generally ch

3、osen, which means that earthquakes are equally likely of occurring at any point along or in the source. Combine these distributions with the source geometry to obtain the probability distribution of source-to-site distance. Contrast this with DSHA that assumes that the probability of occurrence is 1

4、 at the points in each source zone closest to the site and 0 elsewhere.第21頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第22頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第23頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第24頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第25頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)泛的地震安全性評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)工作。泛的地震安全性評(píng)價(jià)技術(shù)工作。第26頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)場(chǎng)地地震安全性評(píng)價(jià)的場(chǎng)地地震安全性評(píng)價(jià)的主要內(nèi)容及基本分析步主要內(nèi)容及基本分析步驟驟 第27頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第28頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第29頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第30頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第31頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第32頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第33頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第34頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)P(yáng)robability calculation給定在某一潛在震源

5、區(qū)中發(fā)生一次震級(jí)為mj的地震的條件下，地震危險(xiǎn)性 的計(jì)算)(jiEyYP給定在某一潛在震源區(qū)中發(fā)生一次震級(jí)為mj的地震的條件下，地震危險(xiǎn)性 的計(jì)算Poisson假定下，給定在該潛在震源區(qū)中發(fā)生多次震級(jí)為mj的地震的條件下，地震危險(xiǎn)性的累加)(0.1000.10.1!)()(0.10.1)()(0.10.1)(jijijijijijiEyYPtEyYPttnnjinjitnjinjijieeentEyYPenPEyYPyYP第35頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)jjiiyYPyYP)(0 .1 0 .1)(kiEyYPtikjikkijjikeyYPyYP)(0 . 1)(0 . 1)(第36頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)Seism

6、ic hazard estimationThe ground motion produced at the site by earthquakes of any possible size (magnitude) occurring at any possible point in each source zone must be determined with the use of predictive (attenuation) relationships. The uncertainty inherent in the attenuation relationship is also c

7、onsidered explicitly in PSHA unlike DSHA.The uncertainties in earthquake location, size, and ground motion prediction are combined to obtain the probability that the ground motion parameter (e.g., PHA, spectral acceleration) will be exceeded in a particular time period (say 10% in 50 years).第37頁(yè)/共50頁(yè))()()(tXtftaNkkkktAtX0)sin()(第38頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第39頁(yè)/共50頁(yè)第40頁(yè)/共5