管理學(xué)第6章制定決策管理者工作的本質(zhì)ppt課件

1、Chapter 6Decision-Making: The Essence of the Managers Job(制定決策：管理者任務(wù)的本質(zhì))1.Decision MakingDecision(定義)Making a choice from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making Process(決策過程)Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing, analyzing, and selecting

2、an alternative that can resolve the problem.Implementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.2.Exhibit 61The Decision-Making Process3.Step 1: Identifying the ProblemProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsA problem

3、becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.4.Step 2: Identifying Decision CriteriaDecision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the p

4、roblem.Costs that will be incurred (investments required)Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)Step 3: Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the cor

5、rect priority order of their importance in the decision making process.5.Exhibit 62Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement DecisionCriterion WeightMemory and Storage 10Battery life 8Carrying Weight 6Warranty 4Display Quality 36.Step 4: Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternativesAlte

6、rnatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.Step 5: Analyzing AlternativesAppraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.7.Exhibit 63Assessed Values of Laptop Computers

7、 Using Decision Criteria8.Step 6: Selecting an AlternativeChoosing the best alternativeThe alternative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7: Implementing the AlternativePutting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out

8、 the decision.9.Exhibit 64Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria10.Step 8: Evaluating the Decisions EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was

9、 not resolved, what went wrong?11.Exhibit 65Decisions in the Management Functions12.Making DecisionsRationality理性Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.Have carefully defi

10、ned the problem and identified all viable alternatives.Have a clear and specific goalWill select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.13.Exhibit 66Assumptions of Rationality14.Making Decisions (contd)Bounded Rationality有限理性Man

11、agers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisficechoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maxi

12、mize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Influence on decision makingEscalation of commitment (承諾晉級): an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. 15.The Role of Intuition直覺的作用Intuitive decision making直覺決

13、策M(jìn)aking decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. 16.Exhibit 67What is Intuition?Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making, Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 9199.17.Types of Problems and Decis

14、ionsStructured Problems構(gòu)造良好的問題Involve goals that clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Programmed Decision程序化決策A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.18.Types of Programmed Decisions

15、PolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.ProcedureA series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.RuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.19.Policy, Procedure, and

16、 Rule ExamplesPolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.RulesManagers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.20.Problems and Decisions (contd)Unstructured Problems構(gòu)造不良的問題Problems th

17、at are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions非程序化決策Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.21.問題類型、決策類型和組織層次程序化決策非程序化決策組織層次頂層底層構(gòu)造良好的構(gòu)造不良的問題類型 Prentice Hal

18、l, 20026-2222.Exhibit 68Programmed versus Nonprogrammed Decisions23.1、個(gè)體決策2、群體決策 相對于個(gè)人決策，群體決策有一些優(yōu)點(diǎn)： (1)能更大范圍地匯總信息；(2)能擬訂更多的備選方案； (3)能得到更多的認(rèn)同；(4)能更好地溝通；(5)能作出更好的決策等。 但群體決策也有一些缺陷，如破費(fèi)較多的時(shí)間群體決策的效率較低 、產(chǎn)生“從眾景象， 以及責(zé)任不明等。適用范圍 對于復(fù)雜、重要和需有關(guān)人員廣泛接受的決策問題，組織最好要采取群體的方式來制定決策。 按決策者分類 在實(shí)際中，群體決策往往轉(zhuǎn)換為一系列個(gè)體決策來求解。24.Decis

19、ion-Making ConditionsCertainty確定性A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.Risk風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular altern

20、atives.Uncertainty不確定性25.確定型、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型、非確定型決策確定型決策 Certainty備選方案只存在一種自然形狀的決策。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型決策 Risk 備選方案存在兩種或兩種以上自然形狀，每種自然形狀發(fā)生的概率可以估計(jì)的決策。非確定型決策 Uncertainty 備選方案存在兩種或兩種以上自然形狀，每種自然形狀發(fā)生的概率無法估計(jì)的決策。26.確定性決策方法盈虧平衡分析 盈虧平衡點(diǎn)：企業(yè)運(yùn)營活動(dòng)處于不盈也不虧形狀的保本點(diǎn)。 利潤=總收入總本錢其中：總收入=銷售價(jià)錢(P)*產(chǎn)銷量(Q)總本錢與產(chǎn)銷量有關(guān) 總本錢：包括固定本錢在一定期間內(nèi)，當(dāng)企業(yè)產(chǎn)銷量變化時(shí)其總額堅(jiān)持不變的本錢，如機(jī)器的

21、折舊等和變動(dòng)本錢 指隨產(chǎn)銷量的添加而同步添加的費(fèi)用或本錢。如直接人工費(fèi)、原資料耗費(fèi)等費(fèi)用 27.產(chǎn)銷量固定本錢 變動(dòng)本錢總本錢本錢028.例題的圖解 1045000產(chǎn)銷量千臺金額萬元13銷售收入總本錢固定本錢29.總本錢與單位產(chǎn)品本錢 利潤產(chǎn)銷量*單價(jià)產(chǎn)銷量*單位變動(dòng)本錢固定本錢 QP QCVF Q(P CV) F 式中P CV為單位產(chǎn)品的奉獻(xiàn)毛收益，即產(chǎn)品銷售單價(jià)超越單位變動(dòng)本錢的部分 由QP QCVF 0推導(dǎo)可得此時(shí)盈虧相平： Q 盈虧平衡點(diǎn)產(chǎn)銷量 30. 分析 能否贊同接受該外商的訂貸，要看降低了售價(jià)后能否還能給企業(yè)帶來利潤。 能夠的錯(cuò)誤是：內(nèi)銷產(chǎn)品單位奉獻(xiàn)毛收益為100-60=40元，

22、外銷產(chǎn)品單位奉獻(xiàn)毛收益為7550=25元，不合算。 外銷產(chǎn)品的利潤為25*2-250=-200，更不合算。但是，實(shí)踐上這家企業(yè)消費(fèi)所投的固定本錢已在內(nèi)銷產(chǎn)品中得到全額補(bǔ)償并有盈余70萬元，所以接受外商訂貨可使企業(yè)再凈賺利潤50萬元?？梢?，要是這家企業(yè)沒有其他更好的銷售時(shí)機(jī)，應(yīng)該作出接受外銷訂貨、添加產(chǎn)銷量的決策。例假設(shè)某電子器件廠的主產(chǎn)品的消費(fèi)才干為10萬件，固定本錢總額為250萬元，單位變動(dòng)本錢為60元。已有國內(nèi)訂單共8萬件，單價(jià)為100元。最近有一外商要求訂貨，但他出的單價(jià)僅為75元，訂量2萬件，并本人承當(dāng)運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用。由于這外銷的2萬件不需求企業(yè)支出推銷費(fèi)和運(yùn)輸費(fèi)，這樣可使單位變動(dòng)本錢降至5

23、0元。該廠能否接受外商的訂貨呢？ 31.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)型決策方法 決策樹法例某公司為投產(chǎn)某種新產(chǎn)品擬定兩個(gè)方案：一是建立規(guī)模較大的工廠，另一是建立規(guī)模比較小的工廠。假設(shè)兩者的運(yùn)用期一樣，但建大廠需投資30萬元，建小廠只需投資20萬元。這種新產(chǎn)品未來的銷路有好壞兩種情況，它們出現(xiàn)的概率分別為0.7和0.3，相應(yīng)的損益值預(yù)測結(jié)果是：假設(shè)采用建大廠方案，假設(shè)銷路好，那么消費(fèi)運(yùn)營這種新產(chǎn)品能帶來100萬元的收益，但假設(shè)遇到銷路差的情況，那么要損失20萬元；假設(shè)采用建小廠的方案，假設(shè)銷路好，運(yùn)營收益能到達(dá)40萬元，而假設(shè)銷路差，那么只需30萬元的收益。試問哪一種方案更可取? 32. 用決策樹的方法比較和評價(jià)不同方

24、案的經(jīng)濟(jì)效果，需求進(jìn)展以下幾個(gè)步驟的任務(wù)： (1)根據(jù)決策備選方案的數(shù)目和對未來環(huán)境形狀的了解，繪出決策樹圖形。 (2)計(jì)算各個(gè)方案的期望收益值。首先計(jì)算方案各形狀枝的期望值用方案在各種自然形狀下的損益值去分別乘以各自然形狀出現(xiàn)的概率然后將各形狀枝的期望收益值累加，求出每個(gè)方案的期望收益值 。33.決策樹 這是一種以樹形圖來輔助進(jìn)展各方案期望收益的計(jì)算和比較的決策方法。決策樹的根本外形如以下圖所示。 34.12-30-206437銷路好P1=0.7銷路好P1=0.7銷路差P2=0.3銷路差P2=0.3100萬元-20萬元40萬元30萬元建大廠需投資30萬元，建小廠只需投資20萬元新產(chǎn)品未來銷路

25、好壞出現(xiàn)的概率分別為0.7和0.3假設(shè)建大廠，銷路好，100萬元的收益，銷路差，損失20萬元；假設(shè)建小廠，銷路好，40萬元的收益，銷路差，30萬元的收益 35.Exhibit 69Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski LiftRobbinsExpectedExpectedProbability=Value of EachEventRevenuesAlternativeHeavy snowfall $850,0000.3=$255,000Normal snowfall 725,0000.5= 362,500Light s

26、nowfall 350,0000.2= 70,000 $687,50036.Decision-Making ConditionsUncertainty不確定性決策方法Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings.Maximax最大最大選擇: the optimistic manag

27、ers choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin最大最小選擇: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax最小化其最大遺憾: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.37.Exhibit 610Payoff Matrix38.15第3方案28第4方案相對收益最大值及選取的方案1428281418A41524152124A391818159A21114111413A1悲觀準(zhǔn)那么Y樂觀準(zhǔn)那么XB3B2B

28、1 B企業(yè)能夠的反響A企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略A企業(yè)在對手三種不同還擊戰(zhàn)略下的收益形狀及方案選擇39.最大懊悔值最小化準(zhǔn)那么 思索到?jīng)Q策者在選定某一方案并付諸實(shí)施后，假設(shè)在未來實(shí)踐遇到的自然形狀并不與決策時(shí)的判別相吻合，這就意味著當(dāng)初假設(shè)選取其他的方案反而會(huì)使企業(yè)得到更好的收益。 這種情況無形中闡明，這次決策存在一種時(shí)機(jī)損失，它構(gòu)成了決策的“遺憾值，或稱“懊悔值。這里，“懊悔的意思是：他選擇了一種方案，實(shí)踐上就放棄了其他方案能夠添加的收益。所以，決策者將為此而感到懊悔?！白畲蟀没谥底钚』瘺Q策準(zhǔn)那么就是一種力求使每一種方案選擇的最大懊悔值到達(dá)盡量小的決策方法。 40.最大懊悔值最小化準(zhǔn)那么習(xí)題分析 7A4 最

29、大懊悔值中的最小值及選取的決策方案282124相對收益最大值7076281418A4131300152124A3151061518159A21717711111413A128- B321- B224- B1最大懊悔值B3B2B1 B企業(yè)的能夠反響A企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略41.Decision-Making Styles決策方式Dimensions of Decision-Making StylesWays of thinking思想方式理性的與直覺的不同Rational, orderly, and consistentIntuitive, creative, and uniqueTolerance for

30、 ambiguity模糊接受力一致型和某種順序的需求與同時(shí)處置許多不同想法的不同Low tolerance: require consistency and orderHigh tolerance: multiple thoughts simultaneously42.Decision-Making Styles (contd)Types of Decision MakersDirective命令型快速、有效率的、有邏輯的Use minimal information and consider few alternatives.Analytic 分析型謹(jǐn)慎，具有順應(yīng)和處置新情況的才干Make

31、careful decisions in unique situations.Conceptual 概念型可以尋求處理問題的發(fā)明性方案Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions.Behavioral 行為型尋覓決策的接受Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.43.Exhibit 612Decision-Making Matrix44.Exhibit 613Common D

32、ecision-Making Errors and Biases45.Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristics啟發(fā)法Using “rules of thumb to simplify decision making.Overconfidence Bias自傲Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.Immediate Gratification Bias即時(shí)滿足Choosing alternatives that offer immediate

33、rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.46.Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)Anchoring Effect錨定效應(yīng)Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.Selective Perception Bias選擇性認(rèn)知Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.Con

34、firmation Bias證明Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.47.Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)Framing Bias取景效應(yīng)Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability Bias可獲得性Losing decision-making

35、 objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.Representation Bias典型性Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.Randomness Bias隨機(jī)性Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.48.Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)Sunk Costs Errors沉沒本錢Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future co