toMacroeconomics(宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)-加州大學(xué)-詹姆斯·布課件

1、CHAPTER 1Introduction to Macroeconomics1Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.QuestionsHow much richer are we than our parents?How much richer will our children be than our grandparents were?Will changing jobs be easy or hard in five years?How many of us will have job

2、s in five years?2Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.QuestionsWill the businesses we work for vanish as demand for the products they make dries up?Will inflation make us poor by destroying our savings or rich by eliminating our debts?3Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hi

3、ll Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Macroeconomics.is the subdiscipline of economics that tries to answer these six questionsis the branch of economics related to the economy as a whole4Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Macroeconomists.try to figure out why ove

4、rall economic activity rises and fallstry to understand what determines the level and rate of change of the price levelstudy other variables that play a major role in determining the overall levels of production, income, employment, and prices5Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All ri

5、ghts reserved.Why Macroeconomics MattersCultural Literacyability to follow and participate in public debates and discussionsunderstanding of news reports on changes in the economy6Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.1 - The Daily Flow of Economic News7Copyr

6、ight 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Why Macroeconomics MattersSelf-Interesteffects of macroeconomy on our daily livesunderstanding of changing opportunities as the economy fluctuates8Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Why Macroeconomics

7、 MattersCivic Responsibilitymore informed votingmore responsible macroeconomic policy9Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Macroeconomic PolicyGrowth Policypolicies to accelerate or decelerate long-run economic growthmost important policies for the long-run10Copyrigh

8、t 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.2 - Long-Run Economic Growth: Sweden and Argentina, 1900-200011Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Macroeconomic PolicyStabilization Policypolicies to smooth out the business cycle by diminishing

9、 the depth of recessions and depressionsbusiness cycles are fluctuations in production and employmentbooms or expansions occur when production grows and unemployment fallsrecessions or depressions occur when production falls and unemployment rises12Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. A

10、ll rights reserved.Figure 1.3 - The American Business Cycle: Fluctuations in Total Production Relative to the Long-Run Growth Trend13Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Macroeconomics versus MicroeconomicsMacroeconomistsexamine the economy as a wholefocus on the fee

11、dback from one component of the economy to anotherstudy the total level of production and employmentbelieve that imbalances between supply and demand may be resolved by changes in quantities rather than prices14Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Macroeconomics vers

12、us MicroeconomicsMicroeconomistsstudy the markets for single commodities and the behavior of individual households and firmsfocus on how competitive markets allocate resources to create consumer and producer surplusassume that imbalances between demand and supply are resolved by changes in prices15C

13、opyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Economic Statistics and Economic ActivityEconomic activity is the pattern of transactions in which things of real, useful value are created, transformed, and exchanged.National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA)reported by the U.S.

14、 Commerce Departments Bureau of Economic Analysis16Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Table 1.2 - The Flow of Economic Data,2000-200117Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesReal Gross Domestic Product (GDP)i

15、s corrected for changes in the price level (real)includes the replacement of worn-out and obsolete equipment and structures as well as new investment (gross)counts economic activity that happens in the United States (domestic)represents the production of final goods and services (product)18Copyright

16、 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesReal Gross Domestic Productoften divided by the number of workers in the economymeasures how well the economy produces goods and services that people find usefuldoes not indicate the relative distribution of the n

17、ations economic productis an imperfect measure of economic well-being19Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.4 - Officially Measured Real GDP per Worker in the United States20Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Econom

18、ic VariablesThe Unemployment Rateto be unemployed, a person must want to work and be actively looking for a job (but have not yet found one)the labor force consists of those who are employed and those who are unemployedthe unemployment rate is equal to the number of unemployed people divided by the

19、labor force21Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.5 - The U.S. Unemployment Rate22Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Unemployment Ratefrictional unemployment occurs because workers and firms sp

20、end time searching for the best matchcyclical unemployment occurs during recessions and depressionsthe unemployment rate is the best indicator of how well the economy is doing relative to its productive potential23Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic

21、 VariablesThe Inflation Rateis a measure of how fast the overall price level is risinghyperinflation occurs when the price level is rising by more than 20% per month24Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.6 - Inflation in the United States25Copyright 2002 by

22、The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Interest Rateis important because it governs the redistribution of purchasing power across timethe many different interest rates in the economy vary by duration and degree of riskoften move up and down together26Copyri

23、ght 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Interest Ratenominal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of moneydoes not take into account the effects of inflationreal interest rate is the interest rate in terms of goods and servicesdoes take in

24、to account the effects of inflation27Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.7 - U.S. Real Interest Rates,1960-199928Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Stock Marketis heard about most often (every

25、 day)is an index of expectations for the futurea high value means that investors expect economic growth to be rapid, profits to be high, and unemployment to be low29Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Figure 1.8 - Real Stock Index Prices30Copyright 2002 by The McGra

26、w-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Exchange Rategoverns the terms on which international trade and investment take placenominal exchange rate is the rate at which monies of different countries can be exchanged for one anotherreal exchange rate is the rate at whi

27、ch the goods and services produced in different countries can be exchanged for one another31Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Exchange Rateif domestic currency appreciatesits value in terms of other currencies increasesforeign-produce

28、d goods are relatively cheap for domestic buyersimports are likely to be highdomestic-made goods are relatively expensive for foreignersexports are likely to be low32Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.Six Key Economic VariablesThe Exchange Rateif domestic currency

29、depreciatesits value in terms of other currencies declinesdomestic-produced goods are relatively cheap for foreign buyersexports are likely to be highforeign-made goods are relatively expensive for domestic buyersimports are likely to be low33Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rig

30、hts reserved.Figure 1.9 - The U.S. Real Exchange Rate:The Dollar against a Composite Indexof Foreign Currencies34Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The CurrentMacroeconomic SituationThe United States - 2001economic growth has slowed to a very weak paceforecast for

31、2001 is that real GDP will grow by no more than 1.8%interest rates lowered through Fed policydue to lags, effects of lower interest rates will not be felt until end of 2001 (at the earliest)inflation continues to be low35Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The Curre

32、ntMacroeconomic SituationThe United States - recent pastfrom early 1990s to 2000, there was an economic boomunemployment fell during the 1990slowest unemployment rate in two decades (4%) real wages increased only slightlyhelped to keep inflation low36Copyright 2002 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.The CurrentMacroecono