哈佛大學(xué)肯尼迪學(xué)院-減少甲烷排放的國際合作（英）-2022.11-16正式版

HarvardProjectonClimateAgreementsInternationalCooperationtoReduceMethaneEmissionsAdrianaMelchorHarvardKennedySchoolRobertStavinsHarvardKennedySchoolRobertStoweHarvardKennedySchoolTheeleventhinaseriesofannualdiscussionpaperssupportedbytheEnelFoundationNovember2022DiscussionPaperES22-11InternationalCooperationtoReduceMethaneEmissionsAdrianaMelchorHarvardKennedySchoolRobertStavinsHarvardKennedySchoolRobertStoweHarvardKennedySchoolNovember2022THEHARVARDPROJECTONCLIMATEAGREEMENTSTheHarvardProjectonClimateAgreementsisaHarvard-University-wideinitiativeestablishedin2007toidentifyandadvancescientificallysound,economicallysensible,andpoliticallypragmaticpublicpolicyoptionsforaddressingglobalclimatechange.Drawinguponleadingthinkersfromaroundtheworld,theHarvardProjectconductsresearchonpolicyarchitecture,keydesignelements,andinstitutionaldimensionsofinternationalanddomesticclimate-changepolicy.TheHarvardProjectisdirectedbyRobertN.Stavins,A.J.MeyerProfessorofEnergyandEconomicDevelopment,HarvardKennedySchool.Formoreinformation,seetheHarvardProject’swebsite:/hpca.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTheHarvardProjectonClimateAgreementsisgratefultotheEnelFoundationandtheEnelEndowmentforEnvironmentalEconomicsatHarvardUniversityforgeneroussupportofaseriesofannualdiscussionpapersonclimate-changepolicyandrelatedtopicsinenergypolicy,ofwhichthispaperistheeleventh.TheHarvardEnvironmentalEconomicsProgram(HEEP)andtheclosely-affiliatedHarvardProjectonClimateAgreementsenjoyinstitutionalhomesinandsupportfromtheMossavar-RahmaniCenterforBusinessandGovernmentandtheBelferCenterforScienceandInternationalAffairsatHarvardKennedySchool.HEEPandtheHarvardProjecthavealsoreceivedsupportfromtheHarvardUniversityCenterfortheEnvironment,theHarvardGlobalInstitute,theAshCenterforDemocraticGovernanceandInnovationatHarvardKennedySchool,andtheHarvardUniversityClimateChangeSolutionsFund.HEEP’sandtheHarvardProject’scurrentexternalsponsorsaretheAlfredP.SloanFoundationandtheEnelFoundation.TheyreceiveongoingsupportfromtheEnelEndowmentforEnvironmentalEconomicsatHarvardUniversity.PastsponsorsincludeEnergyFoundationChina,theDorisDukeCharitableFoundation,theJamesM.andCathleenD.StoneFoundation,BP,ClimateWorksFoundation,ChristopherP.Kaneb,theAVINAFoundation,BankofAmerica,CastletonCommoditiesInternationalLLC,DukeEnergyCorporation,theInternationalEmissionsTradingAssociation(IETA),ChevronServicesCompany,theQatarNationalFoodSecurityProgramme,theNationalScienceFoundation,Shell,theU.S.DepartmentofEnergy,andtheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.CITATIONINFORMATIONMelchor,Adriana,RobertStavins,andRobertStowe.“InternationalCooperationtoReduceMethaneEmissions.”DiscussionPaperES2022-11.Cambridge,Mass.:HarvardProjectonClimateAgreements,November2022.TheviewsexpressedintheHarvardProjectonClimateAgreementsDiscussionPaperSeriesarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflectthoseoftheHarvardKennedySchool,HarvardUniversity,orsponsorsnotedabove.DiscussionPapershavenotundergoneformalreviewandapproval.Suchpapersareincludedinthisseriestoelicitfeedbackandtoencouragedebateonimportantpublicpolicychallenges.Copyrightbelongstotheauthor(s).Papersmaybedownloadedforpersonaluseonly.InternationalCooperationtoReduceMethaneEmissionsAdrianaMelchor,RobertStavins,andRobertStoweIntroduction:WhymethanemattersSharplyreducinganthropogenicmethaneemissionsisoneofthemostcriticalstrategiestoachievetheParisAgreement’sgoaloflimitingglobalwarmingto2.0°Cthiscentury,andifpossiblenomorethan1.5°C.Methanehasashortatmosphericlifetimeandveryhighglobalwarmingpotential,comparedwithcarbondioxide(CO2).1Therefore,althoughtheabsolutequantitiesofhuman-causedmethaneemissionsaremuchlessthanthoseofCO2,methane-emissionsabatementcansignificantlyreduceconcentrations,temperature,andclimatedamages,particularlyintheshortterm.Thiswouldgivetheworldmoretimeto“bendthecurve”onCO2emissions,conductresearchoncarbonremoval,and,moregenerally,toimplementlonger-termstrategiestomitigateandadapttoclimatechange.Morethanhalfofglobalmethaneemissionsderivefromhumanactivities:fossilfuels(35%ofanthropogenicemissions),agriculture(40%),andwaste(20%).2Theconcentrationofmethaneintheatmospherehasnearlytripledfrompreindustriallevels.DatapublishedinJanuary2022showthatmethaneconcentrationhasnowreachedapproximately1,900partsperbillion,ascomparedtoapproximately1,650partsperbillionin1985.3AnuptickinglobalClimateandCleanAirCoalitionandUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“GlobalMethaneAssessment:BenefitsandCostsofMitigatingMethaneEmissions,”2021./bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/35917/GMA_ES.pdf.ClimateandCleanAirCoalition,“BenefitsandCostsofMitigatingMethaneEmissions,”2022(frequentlyupdated)./en/content/benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions.JeffTollefson,“ScientistsRaiseAlarmover‘DangerouslyFast’GrowthinAtmosphericMethane,”Nature,February8,2022,/articles/d41586-022-00312-2.methanelevelssince2007haspromptedconcernsthatglobalwarmingiscreatingafeedbackloop,acceleratingreleasefromArcticpermafrostandothernaturalrepositoriesofmethane.4Inrecognitionoftheurgencyofreducingmethaneemissions,severalvoluntaryinternationalmultipartyagreementsandinitiativeshaverecentlybeenconcludedtoacceleratecollectiveactionandestablishformalmechanismsformonitoringtheimplementationofmethane-relatedcommitments.Whiletheseinitiativesreflectambitiononthepartofpublic,private,andcivilsocietyactorswithregardtomethane,theimplementationoftheseinitiativespresentschallengesforgovernments,emittingsectors,andotherparties.AnInternationaltargetonmethaneemissions:TheGlobalMethanePledgeHistorically,methane-emissionreductionshavebeenaddressedthroughlocalandnationallawsandundervoluntaryprograms,withfewinternationalagreementshavingspecifictargetsformethane.5Nonetheless,asofOctober2022,mostNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)submittedbypartiestotheParisAgreementincludedmethaneemissionswithintheirGHGreductiontargets.6InalandmarkagreementannouncedonthesidelinesofCOP26in2021,progresswasmadetowardssettinganinternationally-agreedmethaneemissionstargetandstrengtheningsupportforexistinginternationalmethanereductioninitiatives.TheGlobalMethanePledge(GMP)–co-authoredbytheUnitedStatesgovernmentandtheEuropeanCommission–hasnowbeensignedby125countriesthathaveagreedtotakevoluntaryactionstocontributetoacollectiveefforttoreduceaggregateglobalmethaneTollefson,2022.ClimateandCleanAirCoalitionandUNEnvironmentProgramme,“GlobalMethaneAssessment:BenefitsandCostsofMitigatingMethaneEmissions.”2021./en/resources/global-methane-assessment-full-reportTarynFransenetal.,“TheStateofNationallyDeterminedContributions:2022.”WorldResourcesInstitute,October2022./research/state-nationally-determined-contributions-20222emissionsatleast30%from2020levelsby2030,whichcouldeliminateover0.2?Cwarmingby2050.7Forsomecountries,theGMPistheirfirstsignificantpolicycommitmentonmethane,eitheratthedomesticorinternationallevel.8GMPsignatoriesincludemanymajoremitters,includingtheUS,theEuropeanUnion,Japan,SouthKorea,andmajoroilproducers,suchasIraqandSaudiArabia.9However,someofthemostimportantplayershaveyettosignthePledge,includingChinaandRussia.Chinahaspursuedanalternative,bilateralapproach–theUS-ChinaJointGlasgowDeclaration10--whichcontainsseveralstatementsofcooperationonmethane-emissionsreduction.IntheDeclaration,Chinacommittedtodevelopa“comprehensiveandambitiousNationalActionPlanonmethane,aimingtoachieveasignificanteffectonmethaneemissionscontrolandreductionsinthe2020s.”O(jiān)therbilateralcommitmentsincludeenhancingthemeasurementofmethaneemissions,exchanginginformationonmethaneemissionspolicies,andfosteringjointresearchintomethaneemissionreductionstrategies.11TheG7andG20maystrengtheninternationalcooperationonmethaneamonghighlyindustrializedcountries.ThecommuniqueoftheJune2022G7meeting,forexample,containsa“GlobalMethanePledge,”.GlobalMethanePledge.“TheGlobalMethanePledge(IEA),”/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/the-global-methane-pledge.OfficeoftheSpokesperson,USDepartmentofState,“U.S.-ChinaJointGlasgowDeclarationonEnhancingClimateActioninthe2020s,”November10,2021,/u-s-china-joint-glasgow-declaration-on-enhancing-climate-action-in-the-2020s/.U.S.-ChinaJointGlasgowDeclarationonEnhancingClimateActioninthe2020s.3paragraphreaffirmingthegroup’scommitmentstotheGMPandspecifyingnextstepsforimplementation.12TofacilitateandmonitorimplementationoftheGMP,theInternationalMethaneEmissionsObservatory(IMEO)waslaunchedbytheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)attheG20SummitinNovember2021,withsupportfromtheEuropeanCommission,withthegoalofimprovingglobalreportingonmethaneemissionsandensuringpublictransparencyofsuchreporting.AsanextensionoftheGMP,inJune2022theUSandEUannouncedanewGlobalMethanePledgeEnergyPathwaytoacceleratemethane-emissionsreductionsintheoilandgassectorandstrengthenglobalenergysecurity.13Argentina,Canada,Denmark,Egypt,Germany,Italy,Japan,Mexico,Nigeria,Norway,andOmanhavejoinedthePathway,alongsidetheUSandtheEU.TheGMPEnergyPathwayencouragesparticipatingnationsto“capturethemaximumpotentialofcost-effectivemethanemitigationintheoilandgassector”andeliminateroutineflaringnolaterthan2030.TosupportthePathway,countriesandothersupportingorganizationspledgedtoprovide$59millioninfundingandin-kindassistance.ImplementingthePledgeTohelpoperationalizetheGMP,IMEOisplanningtodevelopaglobal,publicdatasetofempiricallyverifiedmethaneemissions,startingwiththefossilfuelsector,butwithaviewtoG7Presidency,Germany,“G7Climate,EnergyandEnvironmentMinisters’Communiqué,”May27,2022,7,https://www.bmuv.de/fileadmin/Daten_BMU/Download_PDF/Europa___International/g7_climate_energy_environment_ministers_communique_bf.pdf.USDepartmentofState,“U.S.-EUJointPressReleaseontheGlobalMethanePledgeEnergyPathway,”June17,2022,/u-s-eu-joint-press-release-on-the-global-methane-pledge-energy-pathway/.4expandingtoothermajoremittingsectors,includingagricultureandwaste.14Infact,IMEOwasfoundedtofillgapsindatacollectionforglobalmethaneemissionsbecausethesegapshavehistoricallylimitedtheabilityofpolicymakersandindustrytounderstandthescopeoftheproblemanddevelopappropriatemitigationstrategies.15Availablemethanedataiscurrentlybasedlargelyongenericbottom-up,emissions-factor-basedcalculations,whichhavetendedtounderestimatemeasuredmethaneemissions.16IMEOintendstoaddressthisproblembyincorporatingwider-rangingreportingfromindustry.IMEOwillintegratedatamainlyfromfourstreams:industryreportingfromtheOilandGasMethanePartnership2.0(OGMP2.0);directmeasurementdatafromscientificstudies;remotesensingdata;andnationalinventories.17OGMP2.0isameasurement-basedreportingframeworkaimedatimprovingtheaccuracyandtransparencyofmethane-emissionsreportingintheoilandgassector,18andisaninitiativeoftheClimateandCleanAirCoalition(CCAC),ledbyUNEP,theEuropeanCommission,andtheEnvironmentalDefenseFund.19Inordertoparticipateinthepartnership,companiesmustsignaMemorandumofUnderstandingwithUNEP,whichformallycommitsthemtocomplywiththeOGMP2.0ReportingFramework,20“IMEO-UNEP,”/explore-topics/energy/what-we-do/imeo.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“IMEOHistory,”/explore-topics/energy/what-we-do/methane/imeo-history.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“IMEOHistory.”UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“MethaneObservatoryLaunchedtoBoostActiononPowerfulClimate-WarmingGas,”O(jiān)ctober31,2021,/news-and-stories/press-release/methane-observatory-launched-boost-action-powerful-climate-warming.“OGMP2.0,”/.UNEP,EuropeanCommission,EnvironmentalDefenseFund,andClimateandCleanAirCoalition,“OilandGasIndustryCommitstoNewFrameworktoMonitor,ReportandReduceMethaneEmissions,”November23,2020,/sites/default/files/documents/OGMP%202.0%20Press%20Release_FINAL.pdf.“JointheOGMP,”/join-ogmp-20.5whichinturnprovidesanapproachforreportingScope1methaneemissionsfromoilandgasvaluechains.21Together,IMEOandtheOGMP2.0serveascriticallinksbetweenthehigh-levelambitionoftheGMPandon-the-groundactionsofindustryparticipantsresponsibleforamajorportionofanthropogenicmethaneemissions.Arelatedvoluntaryinitiative,theMethaneGuidingPrinciples(MGP),waslaunchedin2017toreducemethaneemissionsfromthenaturalgassupplychain.SignatoriestotheMGPareacoalitionofmajoroilandgascompanies,includingBP,Shell,ExxonMobil,Gazprom,andChevron.SupportingOrganizationsincludetheInternationalEnergyAgency,theEnvironmentalDefenseFund,otherNGOs,internationalgovernmentalorganizations,andindustryassociations.MGPsignatoriescommittofiveprinciples:22(1)continuallyreducemethaneemissions’(2)advancestrongperformanceacrossthegassupplychain;(3)improveaccuracyofmethaneemissionsdata;(4)advocatesoundpolicyandregulationsonmethaneemissions;and(5)increasetransparency.Inaddition,signatoriescommittopubliclydisclosehowwelltheyareabidingbytheseprinciplesanddisclosehowwelltheyareadheringtotheOGMP2.0reportingframework.Signatoriesareexpectedtocommittosupportatleastoneemissions-reductionprojectannually(in-kindand/orfinancially),detailsofwhichwillbepubliclyreported.Finally–andimportantly–theMGP,withitssignatoriesandSupportingOrganizations,hasdevelopedaMethanePolicyToolkittoassistGMPcountriesinthedevelopmentandimplementationofnationalmethanereductionactionplansbyprovidinganoverviewoftheScope1emissionsarethosefromfacilities,vehicles,andotherresourcesdirectlyownedandoperatedbythefirmreportingemissions.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“OilandGasMethanePartnership(OGMP)2.0Framework,”2020,/en/resources/oil-and-gas-methane-partnership-ogmp-20-framework.6variouspolicylevers,strategies,andresourcesthatgovernmentscanusetoreduceemissions,anddemonstratingtheroleoftheoilandgassectorinmeetingthegoalsofthePledge.23Cross-sectorcoalitions:theGlobalMethaneAllianceWhileMGPandOGMP2.0areledprimarilybytheprivatesector,theGlobalMethaneAlliance(GMA),launchedin2019,isanintergovernmentalinitiative,whichbringstogethercross-sectorstakeholderstosupportmethanereductiontargetsintheoilandgasindustry.24TheAlliancewaslaunchedbyCCAC–whichisavoluntarypartnershipincludinggovernments,intergovernmentalorganizations(IGOs),businesses,scientists,andcivilsocietyorganizationswhoseactivitiesarefinancedthroughUNEP.25CountriesthatjointheAlliancecommittoincludingspecificmethaneemissionstargetsfromtheoilandgassectorintheirNDCs,withtechnicalassistanceandpolicysupportfromIGOsandNGOs.26Participatingoilandgascompanieswillshareknowledge,technologies,andbestmanagementpractices.Intermsofthecapacityforindustrytoimplementtheseinitiatives,mitigationintheoilandgassectorisconsideredparticularlypromisingbecauseitispossibletoavoidmorethan70%ofcurrentemissionswithexistingtechnology,andsome45%couldbeavoidedatlittletoMethaneGuidingPrinciples,“MethanePolicyToolkit,”2022,/methane-policy-toolkit/#1655715162779-ddb408ae-10d8.ClimateandCleanAirActCoalition,“GlobalMethaneAlliance,”n.d.,/en/activity/global-methane-alliance.“GlobalMethaneAlliance”.“GlobalMethaneAlliance”.7nocost.27Thisexplainswhyseveralinitiativeshaveemergedtodrivedownemissionsinthesector.However,thereisalsothequestionofhowmethaneemissionscanbeabatedoutsideofoilandgas.Agriculturecontributesatleast40%(upto46%)ofglobalanthropogenicmethaneemissions,andtheseareonapathtoincreaseroughlyby40%by2050,dueinparttorisingfoodproduction28.Despitethis,estimatesofthepotentialformeasurestocurbmethaneemissionsfromagriculturehavebeenrelativelymodestandoftenverycostly.29ThispresentschallengesforcountriessuchasFrance,Brazil,andNewZealand,whosemethaneemissionsaremainlytiedtolivestock.Ingeneral,emissionsrelatedtolivestockarethelargestsourceofmethanewithintheagricultureandwastesector.30Giventhesechallenges,itwillbeimportanttoexploreopportunitiesforglobal,multi-stakeholdercollectiveactiontargetedatagriculture.Suchactionsmaytargetbehavioural-changemeasuresalongwithfinancialcommitmentsandtechnologicaldeploymenttolowerInternationalEnergyAgency,“CurtailingMethaneEmissionsfromFossilFuelOperations:Pathwaystoa75%Cutby2030”(InternationalEnergyAgency,March2022),/reports/curtailing-methane-emissions-from-fossil-fuel-operations.TimSearchingeretal.,“OpportunitiestoReduceMethaneEmissionsfromGlobalAgriculture,”November2021,/sites/default/files/methane_discussion_paper_nov_2021.pdf.UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“GlobalMethaneAssessment:BenefitsandCostsofMitigatingMethaneEmissions.”/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/35917/GMA_ES.pdfClimateandCleanAirCoalition,UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“GlobalMethaneAssessment”./resources/report/global-methane-assessment-benefits-and-costs-mitigating-methane-emissions8methaneemissionsthroughreducingfoodwasteandloss,improvinglivestockmanagement,andtheadoptionofhumandietswithlessmeatanddairycontent31.Implementation:ChallengesandOpportunitiesIftheGMPdictatestheoverarchingglobalmethaneemissionstargetthatIMEO,OGMP2.0,MGP,theGMA,andrelatedinitiativesarecollectivelyworkingtomeet,thesuccessoftheseeffortsdependsonthecapacityandcommitmentofmethane-emittingsectorstodeveloprobuststrategiesforabatementandongovernments’capacitytoimplementGMPcommitmentsthroughrespectivedomesticpolicies.Allinitiativesdiscussedintheprevioussectionsarevoluntary;therearenoenforcementmechanisms.Inparticular,astheoverarchingintergovernmentalcommitmentonmethane,theGMPisnotbindingonnationsthatsignit,anddoesnotspecifyasetamountofmethaneemissionsthateachcountrymustreducewithinaspecifictimeframe.Instead,itsetsanaggregategoalforparticipatingnationstomeetby2030,andthereforereliessignificantlyonpeerpressureandpublicscrutinyasincentivesforgovernmentstocomplywiththisobjective.Thishasloweredthecostofentryformanycountries–eventhosethatarenotparticularlycooperativeonthebroaderinternationalclimateagenda–tosignon32.Byrecognizingthatone-size-fits-alltargetswouldnotbesuitableforcountriesatdifferentstagesofdevelopment,33theGMPpotentiallyleavesthedooropenforinertiaorUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme,“GlobalMethaneAssessment:BenefitsandCostsofMitigatingMethaneEmissions.”/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/35917/GMA_ES.pdfJenniferADlouhyandJohnAinger,“Kerry’sSecrettoSealingaGlobalMethaneDeal:LowertheBar,”Bloomberg,November2,2021,/news/articles/2021-11-02/the-challenge-of-implementing-the-global-methane-pledge#xj4y7vzkg.JenniferADlouhyandJohnAinger,“Kerry’sSecrettoSealingaGlobalMethaneDeal:LowertheBar.”/environment-and-energy/as-global-methane-pact-takes-off-hurdle-shifts-to-enforcement9inactionamongsignatorycountriesthatarereliantonheavyindustryandoilandgasproductiontodriveeconomicgrowth.Asaresult,theprivatesector–andcross-sectorcoalitionsandmonitoringbodiessuchasIMEO–willneedtoplayasignificantroleinholdingGMPsignatoriesaccountablewithregardtomethane-emissionsreductions.Finally,foreffectivemonitoring,itwillbeimportanttoestablishacommonbaselinetomeasureprogressonmeetingtheGMPtarget,whichcouldbechallengingincertaincountrieswheretherearecapacityorresourceconstraintsinmeasuringemissions.34However,nothavingaclearbaselinenowneednotdeteractiontobeginreducingemissions,particularlyinthecoal,oil,andnaturalgassectors,wheretheInternationalEnergyAgencyhaslaidoutvariousGMP-relatedstrategiesthatcanbeimplementedimmediatelyevenwithlimitedinformation.35Concludingthoughts:GeopoliticalconsiderationsinthecontextofthewarinUkraineThediscussionabovecomeswithacaveat,whichisthatalloftheinitiativesconsideredinthisbriefwerelaunchedinaverydifferentenergy-policycontextfromtodays.OnlymonthsaftertheinaugurationoftheGMPatCOP26,globalenergymarketsweresentintoafrenzybyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.EUcountriesnowfaceaparticularlybleakenergysecuritysituation:Russiansuppliesrepresentedmorethan40%oftotalimportsofnaturalgas(whoseprimarycomponentismethane)totheEUbyFebruary2022.36Unsurprisingly,thewarinUkrainehasnowforcedcountriesinEuropetoracetosecurenewsourcesofenergythatwillInternationalEnergyAgency,“TheGlobalMethanePledge(IEA).”/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/the-global-methane-pledge.InternationalEnergyAgency,“GlobalMethaneTracker(2022)”(InternationalEnergyAgency,2022),/reports/global-methane-tracker-2022/the-global-methane-pledge.ClaudiaKemfertetal.,“TheExpansionofNaturalGasInfrastructurePutsEnergyTransitionsatRisk,”NatureEnergy7(July4,2022):582–87./articles/s41560-022-01060-310replaceRussianoilandgas,includingfrommajoroilexporterssuchasSaudiArabia.Atthesamet