學(xué)校課程-周一1國(guó)際金融chapter1ba

InternationalFinanceSchoolofBusinessLilyObjectiveofthissubjectThissubjectservestointroducethestudentstothetheoreticalframeworkofinternationalfinanceanditsapplicationinanalyzingeconomicevents.Thissubjectisalsosupposedtohelpthosewhoareinterestedininternationalbusinesstounderstandtheinformationimpliedindomesticorforeigneconomicpoliciesandadjusttheirstrategiescorrectly.Whatisinternationalfinance?Internationalfinanceisacourseaddressingthemonetarysideofinternationaleconomics.Thatistosay,thecourseofinternationalfinancediscussesthemonetaryconsequencesofinternationaltrade.Itisawayofviewinginternationalmonetaryrelationship.RequirementsforthestudentsA.Tobeaparticipantinthemarket,notabystander.B.Tokeepanotebookforthetermsandquestionsinyourhand.C.Toasksuchquestionsas“who,where,why,how,what,when”frequentlytohelpyouunderstandtheknowledge.D.Tokeepyourcell-phonesilentduringclasstime.E.Tobringyourquestionstomeafterclassorevenemailme.ContactWaysE-mailaddress

OfficeroomnumberRoomNo.411,SchoolofBusiness,BLCUPrerequisiteforthissubjectIntroductoryeconomicsandfinanceIntermediatemacroeconomics,moneyandbankingcourses

BriefPreviewofthissubjectChapter1and2discussthedeterminantsofthebalanceofpaymentsanditsadjustment.Chapter3istoaddressthewaysinwhichtheinternationalmonetarysystemcouldbeorganizedandthendiscussitsevolution.Chapter4concentratesitsdiscussiononexchangeratesystem.Chapter5discussestheforeignexchangemarketandfinancialderivatives.Chapter6identifiestherelationshipbetweenexchangeratesandinterestratesandchapter7dealswithrisksarousedfromthefluctuationofforeignexchangerates.Chapter8mainlycoverstheareaofthedeterminantsofexchangeratestheoretically.BriefPreviewofthissubject(cont’d)Chapter9,10and11discusstheinternationalcapitalflowsfromtheperspectiveofmultinationalcompanyandinternationalbanking.Chapter12discussesthemacroeconomicsunderanopeneconomy.MainReferences劉克，《國(guó)際金融》（第2版），北京語(yǔ)言大學(xué)出版社，2013陳雨露，《國(guó)際金融》（第5版），中國(guó)人民大學(xué)出版社，2015年版楊長(zhǎng)江，姜波克，《國(guó)際金融新編》（第4版），高等教育出版社，2014年版蔣先玲，《國(guó)際金融學(xué)》（新編21世紀(jì)金融學(xué)系列教材），中國(guó)人民大學(xué)出版社，2017年版[美]托馬斯?A?普格爾，《國(guó)際金融》（第15版），中國(guó)人民大學(xué)出版社,2014MichaelMelvin,InternationalMoneyandFinance,Addison-WesleyEducationalPublishersInc.,2000CHAPTER1

BalanceofPaymentsObjectiveofChapter1

Thischapterservestointroducethestudentstothebalanceofpayments.Howitisconstructedandhowbalance-of-paymentsdata(concepts)andaccountmaybeinterpreted.

OutlineofChapter1ConceptsoftheBalanceOfPaymentsCategoriesoftheBalanceOfPaymentsAccountPrinciplesfortheBalanceOfPaymentsSummarymeasuresoftheBalanceOfPaymentsandtheirrespectiveimplication§1.ConceptsoftheBOPBOPisanaccountingstatementwhichmeasuresallfinancialandeconomictransactionsbetweendomesticandforeignresidentsoveraspecifiedperiodoftime.Or:Systematicrecordofalleconomictransactionsbetweenthehomecountryandtherestoftheworldforaspecifictimeperiodintheformofdouble-entrybookkeeping.ConceptoftheBalanceofPaymentsbyIMFBalanceofPaymentsManual,5thedition,1993,byIMFTheBalanceofPaymentsisastatisticalstatementthatsystematicallysummarizes,foraspecifictimeperiod,theeconomictransactionsofaneconomywiththerestoftheworld.BPM6,2008,byIMF國(guó)際收支的中文定義國(guó)際收支是以統(tǒng)計(jì)報(bào)表的方式，系統(tǒng)總結(jié)特定時(shí)期內(nèi)一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)主體與他國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)主體之間的各項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)交易，它包括貨物、服務(wù)和收益，對(duì)世界其他地區(qū)的金融債權(quán)和債務(wù)的交易以及單向轉(zhuǎn)移。（IMF，1993，2008）姜波克定義的國(guó)際收支和國(guó)際收支平衡表國(guó)際收支是指一國(guó)在一定時(shí)期內(nèi)全部對(duì)外往來的系統(tǒng)的貨幣記錄。國(guó)際收支平衡表是指國(guó)際收支按照特定帳戶分類和復(fù)式計(jì)帳原則表示的會(huì)計(jì)報(bào)表。InternationalEconomicandFinancialTransactionsAtransactionisdefinedasaneconomicflowthatreflectsthecreation,transformation,exchange,transfer,orextinctionofeconomicvalueandinvolveschangesinownershipofgoodsand/orfinancialassets,theprovisionofservices,ortheprovisionoflaborandcapital.AspecifiedperiodoftimeTheBOPisalwaysissuedquarterlyorannually.Measuresflows（流量）

ratherthanstocks（存量）.

Flows:一定時(shí)期的發(fā)生額。

Stocks:某個(gè)時(shí)點(diǎn)上的持有額。SummaryofthefundamentalsoftheBOP

Isbasedonadouble-entrybookkeepingsystem.Itrecordsalltheinternationaleconomicactivityofaneconomy.Itmeasuresflows.Alwaysbalances;i.e.,itmustbeequaltozero.SignificanceoftheBoPNationalLevelJudgingtheexternalequilibriumofacountrytellingthestructureofthedomesticeconomyunderstandingtheopennessofacountry

CorporateLevelForecastinginternationalcompetitivenessJudgingpressureplacedonexchangerateSignalingpossibleimpositionofcapitalcontrols§2.ComponentsoftheBOPTheevolutionofthecomponentsReturnofthe17thcenturytradeofmerchandise:balanceoftradeInthe1920’sinternationalcapitalflows:balanceofforeignexchangeAftertheWorldWarTwocompensationtrade,bartertrade,aidgivengrants,warreparations:BOPinabroadsense,namelyoverallbalanceStandardCategoriesofBOP(BPM5)A. CurrentAccounta.goodsandservicesb.ec.currenttransfersB. CapitalandFinancialAccounta.capitalaccountb.financialaccountb.1Directinvestmentb.2Portfolioinvestmentb.3Otherinvestmentb.4ReserveassetsStandardCategoriesofBOP(BPM6)A. CurrentAccounta.goodsandservicesb.primarye（初次收入）c.secondaryeaccount（二次收入）B. CapitalAccountC.FinancialAccounta.Directinvestmentb.Portfolioinvestmentc.FinancialderivativesandESOs(EmployeesStockOptions)d.Otherinvestmente.ReserveassetsD.NeterrorsandomissionsResource:China’sBalanceofPaymentsFourAccounts:(1982-2014)BPM5 A. CurrentAccount B. CapitalandFinancialAccountC.ChangeinReservesassetsD.NeterrorsandomissionsResource:China’sBalanceofPaymentsThreeAccounts:(2010-2018)BPM6 A. CurrentAccount B. CapitalandFinancialAccountC.NeterrorsandomissionsResource:China’sBalanceofPayments(BPM6)1.errorsandomissions中國(guó)國(guó)際收支平衡表的賬戶設(shè)置（BPM6）國(guó)際收支賬戶經(jīng)常賬戶資本和金融賬戶誤差和錯(cuò)誤遺漏賬戶貨物服務(wù)初次收入二次收入資本賬戶金融賬戶證券投資直接投資非生產(chǎn)、非金融資產(chǎn)交易資本轉(zhuǎn)移金融衍生品（不含儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)）和雇員認(rèn)股權(quán)其他投資儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)CurrentAccountThecurrentaccountbalanceisthesumofthedebitandcreditentriesintheaccountsjustdescribed.Acurrentaccount

deficitoccurswhenthesumofthedebitentriesexceedsthesumofthecreditentries.Acurrentaccountsurplus

occurswhenthesumofthecreditentriesexceedsthesumofthedebitentries.CurrentAccountThecurrentaccountsummarizestheflowofcapitalbetweenonespecifiedcountryandallothercountriesduetothepurchasesofgoodsorservices,theprovisionofeonfinancialassets,orunilateralcurrenttransfers(ernmentgrantsandpensions,privateremittances).Thecurrentaccountpertainstogoodsandservices,e,andcurrenttransfers.Acurrentaccountdeficitsuggestsanetoutflowofcapitalfromthespecifiedcountryforitscurrenttransactions.Whileasurpluscurrentaccountsuggestsnetinflowofcapital.ChinaCurrentAccount(2008)(millioninUSD)Sources:,dated28thSept.2009ItemBalancecreditdebitCurrentaccount426，1071，725，8931，299，786

A.Goods &Services348，8701，581，7131，232，843a.goods360，6821，434，6011，073，919

b.services-11，812147，112158，924B.e31，43891，61560，177C.Unilateraltransfer45，79952，5656，766ChinaCurrentAccount(2010)(millioninUSD)Sources:,dated21stSept.2011ItemBalancecreditdebitCurrentaccount305,4001，946，8001，641，400

A.Goods &Services232,1001，752，6001，520，600a.goods254,2001，581，4001，327，200

b.services-22,100171,200193,300B.e30,400144,600114,200C.Unilateraltransfer42,90049,5006，600ChinaCurrentAccount(2014)(millioninUSD)Sources:,dated1stSept.2015ItemBalancecreditdebitCurrentaccount219,7002,799,2002,579,500A.Goods &Services284,0002,545,1002,261,100a.goods476,0002,354,1001,878,200

b.services-192,000190,900382,900B.e-34,100213,000247,100C.Unilateraltransfer-30,20041,10071,400Capital&FinancialAccount:

TheFinancialSectorofBOPTheCapitalandFinancialAccounttabulatestheflowsoffinancialassetsbetweendomesticresidentsandforeignresidentsandgovernments.Thecapitalandfinancialaccountpertainsto(i)capitaltransfersandacquisitionordisposalofnonproduced,nonfinancialassets（非生產(chǎn)、非金融資產(chǎn)的收買/放棄——各種無形資產(chǎn)如專利、版權(quán)、商標(biāo)、經(jīng)銷權(quán)以及租賃和其他轉(zhuǎn)讓合同的交易）and(ii)financialassetsandliabilities.Twosub-accounts:A.capitalaccount(seep4onChineseeditionbyProf.LiuKe)B.financialaccountFinancialaccountThefinancialaccount

(whichwascalledthecapitalaccountpreviously)summarizestheflowoffundsresultingfromthesaleofassetsbetweenonespecifiedcountrywiththerestoftheworld.Financialaccount(non-reserve)consistsofthreecomponentsandisclassifiedeitherbymaturityofassetornatureofownership.CategoriesofNon-reserveFinancialAccounta.

DirectInvestments

(Forpurposeofcontrol)

Netbalanceofcapitalwhichisdispersedfromandintoacountryforthepurposeofexertingcontroloverassets.Thiscategoryincludesforeigndirectinvestment.b.Portfolioinvestment(Forpurposesofreturn)Netbalanceofcapitalwhichflowsinandoutofthecountrybutdoesnotreachthe10%ownershipthresholdofdirectinvestment.Thepurchaseandsaleofdebtorequitysecuritiessuchasstocks,bonds,ormoneymarkettools,etc.,isincludedinthiscategory.EquitiesDebtCategoriesofNon-reserveFinancialAccountc.FinancialderivativesandESOsManyderivativecontracts,suchasforward,futures,options,swap,etc.,arestipulatedthatthecounterpartiesmakecommitmentstotransact,inthefutureandatagreed-onprices,inunderlyingitems.Thepresentvalue(ormarketprice)ofafinancialderivativesisderivedfromthedifferencebetweentheagreed-oncontractpriceoftheunderlyingitemandtheprevailingmarketprice(orthemarketpriceexpectedtoprevail),appropriatelydiscounted.ESOs（雇員股票期權(quán)）arevaluedconsistentlywiththecumulatedcompensationofemployeesuntilthevestingdate(可行權(quán)日).CategoriesofNon-reserveFinancialAccountd.OtherrelatedinvestmentOtherInvestmentAssets/Liabilities–Consistsofvariousshortandlong-termtradecredits,cross-borderloans,currencyandbankdepositsandotheraccountsreceivableandpayablerelatedtocross-bordertrade-short-term:lessthanoneyear -long-term:greaterthanoneyearThebalanceofcapital&financialaccountofChina(2008)millioninUSDItemBalancecreditdebitCapital&FinancialAccount18,965769,876750,911A.CapitalAccount3,0513,320268B.FinancialAccount15,913766,556750,6431.DirectInvestment94,320163,05468,7342.PortfolioInvestment42，66067,70825,0483.OtherRelatedInvestment-121,067535,794656,861Thebalanceofcapital&financialaccountofChina(2010)millioninUSDItemBalancecreditdebitCapital&FinancialAccount226,0001,108,000882,000A.CapitalAccount4,6004,800200B.FinancialAccount221,4001,103,200881,8001.DirectInvestment124,900214,40089,4002.PortfolioInvestment24,00063,60039,5003.OtherRelatedInvestment72,400825,300752,800Thebalanceofcapital&financialaccountofChina(2014)millioninUSDItemBalancecreditdebitCapital&FinancialAccount38,2002,573,0002,534,700A.CapitalAccount01,9002000B.FinancialAccount38,3002,571,0002,532,8001.DirectInvestment208,700435,200226,6002.PortfolioInvestment82,400166,40084,0003.OtherRelatedInvestment-252,8001,969,4002,222,200OfficialReserves(account)–totalreservesheldbyofficialmonetaryauthoritieswithinacountry.Thesereservesaretypicallycomprisedofmajorcurrenciesthatareusedininternationaltradeandfinancialtransactionsandreserveaccounts(SDRs)heldattheIMF.CentralBankinterventionsinexchangemarketschangesinofficialreservesbybuyingorselling1.gold,silver;2.foreigncurrencies;3.Foreigndenominateddebt;4.Buyorselloptionsorfuturesinmarkets;5.SDRs(SpecialDrawingRightsatIMF)NetErrorsandOmissions:

StatisticalDiscrepancyWhythereareerrors?illegalorundergroundactivity(gunrunings)MismatchinthedatacollectionprocessCustomsrecordsandfinancialinstitutionsrecordsThisoffsettingaccount(抵消帳戶)isusedtoaccountforstatisticalerrorsand/oruntraceablemonieswithinacountry.There’sgoingtobesomeomissionsandmisrecordedtransactions—soweusea“plug”figuretogetthingstobalance.China’sBalanceofPayments（2008）millioninUSDItemBalanceCreditDebitCurrentaccount426，1071,725,8931,299,786Capital&FinancialAccount18,965769,876750,911“gap”=CA+CFA445,0722,495,7692,050,697OfficialReserves-418,9780418,978NetError&Omission-26,094026,094Neterror&Omission=CA+CFA+RESChina’sBalanceofPayments（2010）millioninUSDItemBalanceCreditDebitCurrentaccount305,4001,946,8001,641,400Capital&FinancialAccount226,0001,108,000882,000“gap”=CA+CFAOfficialReserves-471,7000471,700NetError&Omission-59,700059,700Neterror&Omission=CA+CFA+RESChina’sBalanceofPayments（2018）millioninUSDItemBalanceCreditDebitCurrentaccountCapital&FinancialAccount“gap”=CA+CFAOfficialReservesNetError&OmissionNeterror&Omission=CA+CFA+RES§3.Double-entryAccountingDebitvs.CreditInbookkeeping,debit(簿記中的付方，借方)isawrittennoteinanaccountofasumowedorpaidout.Whilecredit(簿記中的收方，貸方)isawrittenrecordofapaymentreceived.Inbookkeeping,debitmustbeequaltocredit.Whatisadouble-entrybookkeepingprinciple?OnetransactionTwoentries:DebitCreditWithanequalamountAruleofthumbItaidsinunderstandingtheBOPisto“followthecashflow”withanexceptionofreserveassets.Reserveassets:Anincreaseinreserveassetswillberecordedindebit,whileadecreaseinreserveassetswillberecordedincredit.HowtoRecordTwoEntries?Twostepsinrecording:1.Transactionitself(Alltransactionsareeitherdebitorcredit.)Follow“theruleofthumb”withanexceptionofreservesasset——Capitalinflowsrecordedcredit——Capitaloutflowsrecordeddebit2.Takethechangeindebtintoconsideration(Monetaryconsequences)ChangesinDebt國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)交易中的債債權(quán)人Vs債務(wù)人本國(guó)人Vs外國(guó)人國(guó)際間的債權(quán)債務(wù)關(guān)系本國(guó)人對(duì)外國(guó)人的債務(wù)=外國(guó)人對(duì)本國(guó)人的債權(quán)外國(guó)人對(duì)本國(guó)人的債務(wù)=本國(guó)人對(duì)外國(guó)人的債權(quán)債的變化與國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)本國(guó)人對(duì)外國(guó)人的債務(wù)增加=外國(guó)人對(duì)本國(guó)人的債權(quán)的增加——國(guó)際資本流入本國(guó)人對(duì)外國(guó)人的債務(wù)減少=外國(guó)人對(duì)本國(guó)人的債權(quán)的減少——國(guó)際資本流出MonetaryConsequencesofTransactionsCapitalInflow

1.Foreignownershipofassetsinhomecountryincreases2.OwnershipofforeignassetsbyyourresidentdecreasesCapitalOutflow1.Ownershipofforeignassetsbyyourresidentsincrease2.Foreignownershipofassetsinhomecountrydeclines(see表1-1onp6,ChineseeditionbyProf.LiuKe)SampleEntries:11.ExportersofChinasend$6,000ofgoodstoUSA,receivingashort-termbankdepositof$6,000inUSA.Credit:I-Exportsofgoods+$6000Debit:III-Increaseinshort-termprivateassetsabroad-$6000SampleEntries:22.China’sconsumerspurchase$12,000ofgoodsfromUSAfirmsandpaymentismadebycitizensofChinatransferring$12,000tothebankaccountofUSAfirmsinChinaDebit:I:Importsofgoods,-$12,000Credit:III:Ownershipofshort-termforeigndepositsbyChina’sresidentdecreases,+$12,000SampleEntries:33.ResidentsofChinasend$1,000ofgoodstoUSA’scitizensasagift.Credit:I:Exportsofgoods,+$1,000Debit:I:Unilateraltransfersmade-$1,000SampleEntries:44.China’sfirmprovides$2,000ofshippingservicestoUSAfirm.USAfirmpaysfortheseservicesbytransferringsomeofhischeckingaccountdepositsinChina’sbanktotheaccountofChina’sshippingfirmsinICBCbankCredit:I:Exportsofservices,+$2,000Debit:III:Decreaseinforeignshort-termprivateassetsinChina/Increaseinshort-termownershipofforeignassetsbyChina’sresidents-$2,000SampleEntries:55.AUSAfirmsends$2,500ofdividendstoitsChina’sstockholders.PaymentismadebytheUSAfirmwritingchecksonitsbankaccountinaChinesebank.Credit:I:Investmentereceiptsfromabroad,+$2,500Debit:III:Decreaseinforeignshort-termprivateassetsinChina/OwnershipofforeignassetsbyChina’sresidentsincrease,-$2,500SampleEntries:66.AcitizenofChinapurchasesa$5,000long-termcorporatebondissuedbyaUSAcompany.Payment