BCG+航空航天和國防領(lǐng)域中速度的需求

ANeedforSpeedinAerospaceandDefenseJuly2022ByGregMallory,JoshuaBrenner,JustinKulish,Jér?meRein,andGaetanCathalantBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP1Theglobalaerospaceanddefense(A&D)industrycanproduceas-tonishinglyadvancedairplanesandothercomplexequipment,butdgetandinlinewithprojectedperformance.Theproblemisnotnew,butitisgettingworseandnowconstitutesafullfledgedcrisisofexecution.userACrisisofExecutionysgasDesignsThatRelyonImmatureTechnology.FirmsssExhibit1-ProgramTimelinesforDefenseProgramsHaveGrownSignificantlyPlanneddevelopment(years)Planneddevelopment(years)Entryintoservice(years)19584819584C-1411965ColdC-1411965ColdWar1Era1Era11970C-130H197413Spruance-classdestroyer197523Nimitz-classcarrier197547A-10197735198056451983451983ArleighBurkedestroyerC7ArleighBurkedestroyerC7A002013211201515DDG100011WarEra19911995151910116517202111Source:BCGanalysis.Note:ActualdevelopmenttimemeasuredfromtheinitialR&Dcontract.Thistendencytoreachforimmaturetechnologyisdrivenlargelybythefactthatmajoradvancesinperformancearegettinghardertoachieve.Forexample,thefuelefficiencygainsforsingle-aislecommercialaircrafthavebeenslow-ingovertimeastheyapproachthenaturallimitsofcurrentdesigns.(SeeExhibit2.)SoftwareAdvancingatFasterRates.Softwareiscentraltomodernaerospaceanddefenseplatforms,butsoftwaredevelopmentisnotacorecapabilityatmanyOEMs.Inaddition,companiesinotherindustriescanrolloutbetaversionsofsoftwarewithknownflawsandthenrefineovertime,butthestringentsafetyrequirementsintheA&Dindustryrequiremuchgreaterinitialreliability.Technologycompaniescanalsoshortenproductcyclesbysimplyupgradingthesoftwareratherthanreengineeringhard-ware.However,intheaerospaceindustry,softwarehasbecomeanotherkeyelementofthedevelopmentprocess,increasingoverallprogramlength.Moreover,asAIandInternetofThingssolutionsproliferateforbothdefenseandcommercialfirms,thesoftwarechal-lengeislikelytogrow.IncreasedOutsourcing.Adesireforasset-lightbusinessmodelshasledtomoreoutsourcingamongmajorA&Dplayers.(SeeExhibit3.)ThisreducesthedevelopmentcostsbornebytheOEMandcanspreadthefinancialriskofanewprogram,butitintro-ducesfrictionandcomplexity,inpartbecauseaerospaceanddefensesuppliersoftenfacelittlemeaningfulcompeti-tion,butalso—andmaybemoreimportantly—becauseitrequiresstrongercollaborationonmorecomplextopics,asincreasedoutsourcingmeanswiderresponsibilityforasupplieratthesystem-integrationorarchitecturelevel.Mostcomponentsrequirelargenonrecurringcosts(NRCs)toproduce.Forexample,one-timeexpensesliketooling,R&D,capitalequipment,engineering,andtestingcancomprisethemajorityofthecosttoproducegivenparts,modules,orsystems,limitingthenumberofpotentialsuppliersthatcancompetetoproducethem.Forsomecommodities,thiscancreatealackofcompetition,givingsupplierspricingpowerindealingwithOEMsandmakingthempotentiallylessresponsiveinhittingschedulesandqualitytargets.Othercommoditiesrequireinterpenetratedrelationshipsandresponsibilities,necessitatingmorecollation,moredataexchanges,andjointassessmentoftheimpactsoftrade-offsorrequirementchanges:aso-called“risk-sharingpartnership”modelthatstillneedstobefine-tunedtoensurealignmentandeffectivenessintherelationshipbetweenaprimecontractorandadesign-and-buildvendorwithawideaccountability.BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP34ANEEDFORSPEEDINAEROSPACEANDDEFENSEKilojouleperrevenuepassengerkilometer37Classic737-600757-300A321A Kilojouleperrevenuepassengerkilometer37Classic737-600757-300A321A AA320neoA321neo0DC9-30707-300B64200020102020Sources:IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),manufacturerdata,airlinerouteplanningdata,MIT,BCGanalysis.ththeannouncementofanewprogramExhibit3-TheShareofOutsourcedMaterialinBoeingandAirbusAircraftHasGrownSteadilyoverTime 777777767NextGen 787 AA340A3301990200020102020BoeingAirbusSpaceX:Approximately20%outsourcedSources:Mediareports,companystatements,industryresearch,BCGanalysis.BOSTONCONSULTINGGROUP5ThePriceofPoorExecutionieerlesanonnegotiableprincipleialnngustriesmarketeChangestoPerformanceRequirementsintheDesignrProgramTimelinesateyrBOSTONCONSULTINGGROUPFocusonincrementaladvances.RatherthanlaunchinglnpildxmoreTraditional8ANEEDFORSPEEDINAEROSPACEANDDEFENSEBusinesssystemimplicationsExhibit4-ANewStrategicApproachtoStructuringBusinesssystemimplicationsbjectiveFrom…Striveforthebiggestperformancegainspossible…ToDevelopasmuchnewcapabilityaspossibleinthreetofouryearsIncorporateIncorporatemanynewtechnologies,manythatarelessmatureProductambitionisking:ManagescheduleandcostbutacceptoverrunstohittargetsUsethereturnonnetassetsastheprimarymetrictoinformstrategicmake-buydecisionsManageprojectswithtraditionalwaterfallapproachandanalogtestingIncorporateamixofnewtechnologies,somethatarematureandafewambitiousinnovationsScheduleisking:Sacri?ceproductcapabilitytomaintainvelocityandtimelineFocusmake-buychoicesaroundbuildingcompetitiveadvantageandremovingcomplexityShifttoagileproductdevelopmentwithdigitalintegrationandtestingtoolsSource:BCGanalysis.Digitizethedesignprocess.Companiescanalsorelymoreonnew,provendesigntools—suchasdigitaltwinsimulations,digitaldesignsoftware,andmodel-basedsystemsengineering—toacceleratethedesignanddevel-opmentprocessitself.Forexample,theconstruction,test-ing,andanalysisofphysicalprototypescanconsumeasignificantamountoftimeduringthedesignstage.Bydigitizingthatprocessandrelyinginsteadonvirtualsimu-lations,teamscanmakemuchfasterprogress.Rotatetalent.A&Dfirmsshoulddeliberatelyrotateteamsofexpertstobuildexperienceandincreasetheirexposuretomultipleprograms.Shorteningtheaverageaerospaceprojectwillgiveengineersandstafftheopportunitytotaketheirlessonslearnedtothenextprojectandworksmarterfromthestart.Thiswillmakethenextprogramgofaster,creatingavirtuouscyclethatallowsevengreaterprogramspeedandmorecareerdevelopmentopportunities.Inourdiscussionswithindustryprofessionalsworkingonunder-performingprograms,thefactthatmanypeopleonpro-gramteamshadneverseenasuccessfulprogramfirsthandwasfrequentlycitedasamajorchallenge.Streamlinesupplychains.Aerospaceprimecontractorsshouldreducesupply-chaincomplexitybyverticallyinte-gratingtodevelopmoresystemsin-house—specificallythosethatarecriticaltothetechnicalperformanceofthefinalproductorwherehighNRCsrequireasinglesourceofsupply.Producingthesecomponentsin-housewillre-ducefrictionacrossthesuppliernetworkandprotectthebiggestprofitpoolsfortheOEM.Forcomponentsthatcansupportmultiplevendors,outsourcingshouldstillbetheprimarystrategy,asitfosterscompetitioninbothpriceandperformance.InsituationswhereOEMsdonothavetheneededcapabili-tiestobringproductionin-house,theyshouldworkcloselywithasmallnumberofproventechnicalcollaborators.Forexample,GEandSafranAircraftEnginesarelong-standingpartnersandcancoordinatesmoothlyacrosscompanyboundaries.Whenkeycomponentsareoutsourcedtosole-sourcesuppliers,OEMsshouldstructurearrange-mentstoalignincentivesandreduceanyfrictionthatcouldslowdevelopmentandproduction.Jointventuresorrevenue-risk-sharingpartnershipagreementscanleadtomoreproductiverelationshipswithcriti