創(chuàng)新就像是在大海上沖浪

InnovationAsAJourneylntoTheFuture創(chuàng)新就像是在大海上沖浪Irecentlyreadanexcellentinnovationreport,'SurfingTowardtheFuture:Chileinthe2025',whichnaturallyfocusesonChile,butoffersmanyfindingsandrecommendationsthatapplytotheU.S.andmostotheradvancedandemergingeconomies.我最近讀到一篇講創(chuàng)新的報告，很不錯，題目是“向未來沖浪：2025年的智利"(SurfingTowardtheFuture:Chileinthe2025)。報告當然是以智利為重點，但它也給出了很多適用于美國及其他大部分發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體和新興經(jīng)濟體的結論和建議。ThedocumentwasdevelopedbyChile'sNationalInnovationCouncilforCompetitiveness(CNIC),apublic-privateorganizationchargedwithprovidingadvicetostrengtheninnovationandcompetitivenessinthecountry.ThereportwaspresentedtoChile'sPresidentSebastianPieraonAugust6.報告由智利國家競爭力創(chuàng)新委員會(NationalInnovationCouncilforCompetitiveness，簡稱CNIC)編寫，8月6日呈遞給智利總統(tǒng)塞瓦斯蒂安?皮涅拉(SebastianPinera)。CNIC是一家公私合營組織，負責提供如何提高該國創(chuàng)新水平和競爭力的建議。ButthisislikenoinnovationdocumentI'veread.Whilethe'SurfingTowardtheFuture'reportrecommendsthelongterminitiativesChileshouldprioritize-energyandsustainability,biologyandlifesciences,education,andthedevelopmentofaninnovationculture-it'showthereportexpandsourideaofinnovationbyaskingreaderstolookatitinamorehistoricaltimeframethatmakesthisreportstandout.但這份報告不同于我讀過的任何有關創(chuàng)新的文件?！断蛭磥頉_浪》建議智利重視能源與可持續(xù)發(fā)展、生物學與生命科學、教育、創(chuàng)新文化的培育等長遠議程，但這份報告的與眾不同之處在于，它邀請讀者在一個更大的歷史框架之下來看待創(chuàng)新，從而拓寬我們頭腦中的創(chuàng)新概念。Thelanguageisalsomoreliterarythanistypicalfortechnicalorbusinessdocuments.Thisisnotsurprisingsincethereport'sauthor,CNICheadFernandoFlores,isanaccomplishedwriterinbothEnglishandSpanish.HehasaPh.DfromUCBerkeleyandhasworkedextensivelyasanentrepreneurandconsultantincomputerscience,humancognitionandorganizationalleadership.Hehaswrittenanumberofbooks,including'UnderstandingComputersandCognition:aNewFoundationforDesign'and'BuildingTrust:inBusiness,Politics,RelationshipsandLife'.其措辭也比技術文件或商業(yè)文件中的常見措辭更有文采。這不奇怪，因為報告作者、CNIC主席賽爾南多?弗洛雷斯(FernandoFlores)本身就是一位造詣頗深的英文和西班牙文作家。他擁有加州大學伯克利分校(UCBerkeley)的博士學位，在計算機科學、人類認知和組織領導力領域有著豐富的創(chuàng)業(yè)和咨詢經(jīng)驗。他寫過好幾本書，比如《理解計算機與認知：設計的新基礎》(UnderstandingComputersandCognition:aNewFoundationforDesign)和《建立信任：商界、政壇、人際與生活》(BuildingTrust:inBusiness,Politics,RelationshipsandLife)等。IfirstmetMr.FloresduringatriptoChileinAugustof2006toattendaconference.HewasaSenatorthen,apositionheheldfromMarchof2002untilhisappointmenttopresidentoftheInnovationCouncil.Wediscoveredthatwehadanumberofcommoninterests-inadditiontoourcommonlanguage-andhavesincebecomefriendsandmetanumberoftimesinChileandtheU.S.我第一次見到弗洛雷斯是2006年8月去智利參加一個論壇期間，那時候他還是參議員。從2002年3月份直到被任命為CNIC主席，他一直是參議員。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，兩個人之間除了共同語言之外還有好幾種共同興趣，于是后來成了朋友，在智利和美國都見過多次。Thereportadmitsthatmanyviewinnovationasbeingprimarilythecombinationofscience,technologyandcreativitythatgivesrisetonewproductsandservices.Mr.Floresbelievesthatthisistoolimitedaview.Toreallyunderstanditspowerandtheroleithasplayedthroughouthumancivilization,heasksustolookatinnovationinamorehistoricaltimeframe.Innovationisessentiallyhowindividuals,communitiesandinstitutionsdealwithperiodsofacceleratingchangesandhistoricaltransitions.Thisiswhy,givenourongoingtransitionfromtheindustrialeconomyofthepasttwocenturiestoanewinformation-basedeconomy,we'vebeensofocusedoninnovationoverthepastdecadeandarelikelytocontinuetodosowellintothefuture.報告承認，很多人眼中的創(chuàng)新首先是科學、技術和創(chuàng)造力的組合，這種組合使新的產(chǎn)品和服務得以誕生。弗洛雷斯認為這一觀點過于狹隘。為了真正理解創(chuàng)新的力量以及它在人類文明史上扮演的角色，他邀請我們在更大的歷史框架里審視創(chuàng)新。從本質(zhì)上講，創(chuàng)新就是個人、群體和組織對加速變革時期和歷史轉折期的應對。因此，鑒于我們正在從過去兩個世紀的工業(yè)經(jīng)濟向一種以信息為基礎的新型經(jīng)濟轉變，過去10年我們是如此關注創(chuàng)新，將來也很有可能會繼續(xù)關注創(chuàng)新。Theseacceleratingchangesareshakingourmostfundamentalbeliefsandassumptions.Theyincludeeconomicandculturalglobalization,longerlifespans,theempowermentofindividualsandcommunitiesandpotentiallyseriousdisruptionstotheplanet'secology.'Weshouldallthinkofourselvesasnewimmigrantstoourpresenthyperconnectedworld,'ishowNYTimescolumnistTomFriedmancharacterizedourtimesataSeptember2011conferenceIattended.We'retravelersinanuncertainjourneythatisfraughtwiththeperilsofcreativedestructionaswellasthepromiseofexcitingnewopportunities.But,wehavenochoicebuttoembarkonthejourney,despitenotquiteknowingwhereweareheadingorwhatmajordisruptionslieahead.這些越來越快的變化正在動搖我們最根本的信念和假設。它們包括經(jīng)濟與文化全球化、預期壽命延長、個人與群體獲權，以及地球生態(tài)可能遭遇嚴重破壞等。“我們?nèi)紤摪炎约寒斪鬟M入當今這個超連接世界的新移民?！薄都~約時報》(NYTimes)專欄作家湯姆?弗里德曼(TomFriedman)在2011年9月份我參加的一個論壇上如此形容我們的時代。我們是一條不確定行程上的旅客，這個行程上布滿創(chuàng)造性破壞造成的險境，也布滿激動人心的新機會帶給人的希望。但我們別無選擇，只能繼續(xù)走下去，盡管不太清楚是在往哪個方向走，前面會有什么樣的重大波折。Successfulinnovationsrequirethreemajorforcestocometogether.Firstisthecreativeandentrepreneurialcapacitytounderstandwhatthemarketisreadyforandbeabletocomeupwiththerightideasfornewproductsandservices.But,todevelopandbringthemtomarket,youalsoneedtherightecosystem-includingtechnologies,tools,production,saleschannels,supportservices,marketingandfinance.Finally,customershavetobereadytochange,breakwiththepastandembracetheinnovative,newproductsandservices.成功的創(chuàng)新需要有三股重要力量結合在一起。首先是理解市場需要什么、給出合適的產(chǎn)品服務創(chuàng)意的創(chuàng)造能力和創(chuàng)業(yè)能力。而要開發(fā)出新產(chǎn)品、新服務并把它們推向市場，也需要有合適的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，包括技術、工具、生產(chǎn)、銷售渠道、支持服務、營銷和金融等。最后，客戶必須是做好了迎接變革的準備，可以跟過去決裂、迎接創(chuàng)新性的產(chǎn)品和服務。Innovationisthustheresultofahighlycomplex,dynamicecosystem,notunliketheecosystemsyoufindinevolutionarybiologythathavegivenrisetothediversityoflifeinourplanet.Inaddition,innovationinvolvescomplexinteractionsacrossmultipletimehorizons,fromthenear-termincrementalimprovementstomatureproductstothelongtermemergenceofhighlydisruptiveinnovationsandnewscientificdisciplines.因此創(chuàng)新源自高度復雜、活躍的生態(tài)系統(tǒng)，其復雜和活躍程度與進化生物學中形成地球生命多樣化的那些生態(tài)系統(tǒng)別無二致。除此以外，創(chuàng)新還涉及多個時間范圍的復雜互動：有短時間范圍內(nèi)讓產(chǎn)品臻于成熟的增量式改良，也有長時間范圍內(nèi)高破壞性創(chuàng)新和新科學原理的出現(xiàn)。Companiesandeconomiesmustcontinuallyimprovetheirexistingproductsandservicesthroughincrementalinnovationsaswellasextensionstoadjacentmarkets.But,theyalsoneedtounderstandthemajorlongtermtechnical,economicandsocietalchangesanddevelopavisionofthefuture.Suchavisionisneededtohelpguidethecompany'smajordirections,includingwhichlearningcurvestheyshouldgeton.Withoutit,thecompanyrunstheriskofmissingthebigpictureandgettingleftbehindbyafastmovingworld.企業(yè)和經(jīng)濟體必須通過增量創(chuàng)新、向鄰近市場拓展來持續(xù)地改良現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品和服務，同時也需要理解長時間范圍內(nèi)技術、經(jīng)濟和社會方面的重大變革，對未來形成一套展望。這樣的展望是指引企業(yè)大方向（比如應該遵循什么樣的學習曲線）所需，沒有它，企業(yè)就有可能看不清大形勢，被飛快前進的世界甩在身后。Mr.Floresproposesaninnovationstyleforfacingsuchanunpredictablefuture,whichhecallssurfinghistory.Itissimilartothestyleofsuccessfulentrepreneurs.Itrequiresovercomingourfearsofchangeanduncertainty,andtransformingourconcernsforthefutureintoconcreteactionsandcommitmentsinthepresent.弗洛雷斯提出一種直面這種不確定未來的創(chuàng)新風格，他稱之為“在歷史中沖浪”。這種風格和成功企業(yè)家的風格相似，要求克服我們對變化和不確定性的恐懼，把我們對未來的憂慮轉化為當下的實際行動和決心。Theanalogytosurfingisintriguing.Surferscanneverbesurehowthewaveswillflow.Andtheymustbeonwatchfordangerouswavesthatcanpotentiallyhurtorevenkillthem.'Thoughthesurferscannotgoanywheretheyplease-itwouldbenaivetopretendtocontrolthesea-byremaininginconstantharmonywiththewavesandreceptivetowhatappears,theycanfindthespaceofstabilityandapathforward,'writesFlores.沖浪比喻很有意思。沖浪的人從不知道海浪將如何流動，他們必須留意那些有可能傷害甚至殺死他們的危險浪頭。弗洛雷斯寫道：“雖然沖浪者做不到想往哪沖就往哪沖（自以為能掌控海洋是幼稚之舉），但通過與浪頭保持持續(xù)的和諧并樂于接受眼前出現(xiàn)的東西，他們可以找到穩(wěn)定的立足地和前進的道路?！?Tosurftheemergingwavesofhistorywemustfreeourselvesfromthemorepragmaticconversations.Thosearethemostcommonanddailyconversations,theonesweoperatewithinanestablishedworldofthings,institutionsandrolesinordertomeetourdailyneedsanddesires.Beyondpragmaticconversations,thehistorysurfersengageinconversationsthatdisclosenewworlds,tunedtoanomaliesthatsuddenlycometolightasnewhorizons...Thiskindofcouragethatwecallradicalhopeemergesfromtheconfidencethathumanswillkeepmovingforward,reinventingthemeaningofourexistence.'“要暢行于歷史中不斷涌現(xiàn)的浪頭之上，我們必須把自己從更加現(xiàn)實的對話中解放出來。這些對話是最常見、最日常的對話，是我們在事物、組織和角色的既成世界中進行的對話，目的是滿足我們的日常需求和欲望。在現(xiàn)實對話之外，歷史沖浪者還參與那些揭示新世界的對話，習慣于那些像新的地平線一樣突然出現(xiàn)的非常態(tài)……這種勇氣我們稱之為激進希望，它源自這樣一種信心：人類將會繼續(xù)前進，重尋存在的意義?！盠etmeconcludebysayingafewwordsaboutacoupleofthelongterminitiativesthatthe'SurfingTowardtheFuture'reportrecommendsChileshouldfocusitseffortson.最后讓我說一下《向未來沖浪》建議智利關注的幾個長遠議程。Inbiologyandthelifesciences,forexample,thereportnotesthatarevolutionisunderwaythatwillhaveglobalimpactsonhealth,food,energyandtheenvironment.Thisrevolutionisbeingdrivenbytheagingofthepopulationsinmuchoftheworld,whichissignificantlyincreasingthesocialcostsofdealingwitholderadults;bypersonalizedmedicine,whichwilltransformthehealthcareindustryaroundtheworldandwillultimatelyleadtolongerandhealthierlives;andbysyntheticbiology,whichpromisesmajorscientificadvancesinfoodandenergyproductionsbutalsoraisesmanyquestionsconcerninggeneticallymodifiedorganisms.比如報告指出，生物學和生命科學領域正在發(fā)生一場革命，它將對衛(wèi)生、食品、能源和環(huán)境產(chǎn)生全球性的影響。這場革命背后的推動因素，有世界很多國家都存在的人口老齡化，它顯著提高了照顧老年人的社會成本；有定制化醫(yī)療，它將給全世界的醫(yī)療產(chǎn)業(yè)帶來轉型，最終將延長人的壽命、提高人的健康水平；有合成生物學，它有望帶來食品和能源生產(chǎn)的重大科學進展，但也導致了很多涉及到轉基因的問題。Oneducation,thereportobservesthatthedeepfuturechangesweexpectdemandequallymajorchangestooureducationalsystems.Highschooleducationmusttakeresponsibilityformotivatingyoungpeoplebycreatingspaceswheretheycandiscoverthatlearningisanimportantandexcitingadventuretheywillbeinvolvedinthroughtheirwholelives.Highereducation,whichisincreasinglyarequirementfordecentjobsinourknowledgeeconomy,mustreduceitsrapidlyrisingcostswhicharekeepingaqualityeducationoutofthereachofsomanyyoungpeoplearoundtheworld.Theadventofmassiveopenonlinecourses(MOOCs)andotherformsofonlineandhybridlearningpromisetoradicallyexpandaccesstolow-costqualityeducationaroundtheworld.在教育方面，報告認為，預計在將來發(fā)生的深度變革要求我們對教育體制進行同樣大刀闊斧的改革。高中教育必須承擔起激發(fā)年輕人的責任，為年輕人開辟出空間，讓年輕人意識到學習是他們整個一生都將參與的一場重要而激動人心的冒險。高等教育在我們的知識經(jīng)濟中已經(jīng)是謀取體面工作的必備條件，它必須降低快速上升的成本，因為高成本讓世界上那么多的年輕人都無緣優(yōu)質(zhì)教育。大規(guī)模網(wǎng)絡公開課和其他網(wǎng)絡教育、混合教育形式的出現(xiàn)，有望極大地擴展低成本優(yōu)質(zhì)教育在世界各地的惠及范圍。'It'snolongerpossibletothinkaboutthefutureassomethingfixedandpredictable,'writesMr.Flores.'Onthecontraryweunderstanditasthehorizonofpossibilitiesthatisbeingbuiltwithouractionstoday.Althoughthesumofthoseactionscanleadtounpredictableresults,thereponsibilityofpolit