J.P.摩根-全球投資策略-全球數(shù)據(jù)觀察：撼動(dòng)大麥的風(fēng)

GlobalDataWatch

?JunesurveyspointtomomentumslideinUSandEurope

?AsialookstobeliftingasCOVIDdragsfade

?Centralbanksonthemarch;closeto100bpofDMhikesexpectedin3Q

?Nextweek:AsiamfgPMIsup,globaldown;EMUHICPup0.7%m/m

Thewindthatshakesthebarley

Whileflaggingdownsiderisktoour2H22globalgrowthoutlookforsometime,thusfarwehavemadeonlymodestrevisionstoourforecastforareturntoabove-trendglobalgrowth.MuchofthisanticipatedaccelerationcomesfromasharpreopeningreboundinChinathathasalreadybegun.Butourfore-castelsewhere—toasolidlyabove-potential2.2%arin2H22—isundergreaterthreat.Indeed,recentdevelopmentshaveshiftedthefocusofthedebateintheUSandWesternEuropetotheriskofrecession.Ashasbeenthecaseprecedingpriordownturns,bothregionshavebeenhitbylargeadversesupplyshocksthathavepushed1H22CPIgainsabove8%ar.Thusfar,householdshavecushionedtheblowtotheirpurchasingpowerbydrawingdowntheirsavings:weestimateDMrealconsumptiongrew2%arin1H22.Butconsumerconfidenceisnowsliding,withthisweek’sEuroareaandUKJunereadingsbothapproaching40-yearlows(Figure1).UpcomingJunereadingsshouldalsoshowthatinfla-tionpressureremainsintenseatmidyear.Nextweekweexpecta0.7%m/mgainintheEuroareafollowedbyaforecasted1%m/mincreaseintheUS(July13).Bothregionsfacespecificenergysectorthreats.LimitedrefinerycapacitycouldpushUSretailgasolinepricesabove$5/gallonnextquarterwhilecur-tailedRussiangassupplyispushingEuropeanwholesalenaturalgaspricessharplyhigher.WhileGermanstoragelevelshavealreadyincreasedto58%andtheuseofcoalispickingup,industrialuserswilllikelybeforcedtorationgaslaterthisyearifRussiansupplyisnotavailable.

EasingsupplypressuresareapparentinnotabledeclinesinindustrialmetalandagriculturalcommoditypricesinrecentweeksaswellasshorteningdeliverytimesinavailableJunebusinesssurveys.However,thisreliefisoflimitedcomfortasitsmainsourceissofteningdemand.GlobalconsumergoodsspendingcontractedinthethreemonthsthroughMay(evenifaChi-nadiveisexcluded)andourglobalCapexNowproxypointstomoderating

Seepage81foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

GlobalEconomicResearch

24June2022

EconomicandPolicyResearch

BruceKasman

(1-212)834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@

JosephLupton

(1-212)834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@

MichaelSHanson

(1-212)622-8603

michael.s.hanson@

JPMorganChaseBankNA

Contents

France:MacrononlyhaslimitedoptionsfordomesticpolicyUKvs.Scandies:Higherrates,variedsensitivity

Africa:Foodpriceshocksandthethreattofoodsecurity

12

15

18

GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4

GlobalCentralBankWatch6

Nowcastofglobalgrowth7

SelectedrecentresearchfromJ.P.Morgan

Economics9

J.P.MorganMarketWatch10

DataWatches

UnitedStates22

Euroarea29

Japan34

Canada38

Mexico40

Brazil43

Argentina45

Andeans47

UnitedKingdom49

EmergingEurope52

SouthAfrica56

AustraliaandNewZealand59

China,HongKong,andTaiwan61

Korea64

ASEAN66

India70

RegionalDataCalendars72

2

JPMorganChaseBankNA

BruceKasman(1-212)834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@

MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@

GlobalEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch

24June2022

businessspendinggains.Amidyeardownshiftinthegoodssectorisincorporatedinourforecast,butthisweek’sslideintheJuneDMmanufacturingflashnewordersPMIto47.9isasurprise.AnevengreaterdisappointmentisthelossofmomentumreflectedinthePMIservices—thesectorwherethebenefitsoffadingCOVIDrestrictionshavebeenantici-patedtogenerateamidyearlift.

TheJuneflashPMIalignswithroughly1%DMGDPgrowthandasignalconsistentwithtoourGDPnowcasterreadingsforMay-June(Figure2).Bythemselves,thesetrackersdonotpointtounusuallyelevatedrecessionrisk.Butthismomen-tumlosscombineswithheightenedriskoffurtherenergypricepressuresandDMcentralbanksfocusedoncontaininginflationrisk.Evenas3Q22GDPgrowthwilllikelyfallshortofour(andcentralbank)expectations,itisreasonabletoexpectDMpolicyratestorisecloseto100bpnextquarter.

Asthisdynamictakesholditisimportanttodistinguishbetweenamid-cyclegrowthslowdown—whichisoftenapausethatrefreshes—andaslideintorecession.Develop-mentsinglobalenergymarketsplayanimportantrole,andthelatestnewsonthisfrontisnotfavorable.Bycontrast,ourassumptionthatChinacanavoidanadditionalsetofbroad-basedlockdownsistrackingandshouldbeacatalystforAsiatoplayasignificantcushioningrole.Thereare,however,twofundamentalmacroeconomicfactorsthatwilltellthetaleaboutwhethertheglobalexpansionremainsintactasweturninto2023.

?It’seasierat0.5,2and3.ChairPowell’stestimonycon-firmstheFed’scommitmenttohavearestrictivepolicystancenextquarter,andthisaggressiveactionisreverber-atingelsewhere.However,centralbankershavenotcom-pletelyforsakentheexpansion,andweexpectthemtobecomeresponsivetogrowthdisappointmentslaterthisyearoncepolicyratesfortheECB,BoE,andFedreach0.5%,2%,and3%,respectively.ThesensitivityDMcen-tralbanksdisplayinthefaceoflikelygrowthdisappoint-mentsandstill-elevatedinflationwillbeakeydetermi-nantofthelifeofthisexpansion.

?It'salwaysaboutlabormarkets.Shocksandcentralbanksareprecipitatingcausesofarecession,butabusi-nessretrenchmentinlabormarketsistheforcethatturnsagrowthslowdownintoarecession.ValidationofourviewthattheDMcorporatesectorisinarelativelyhealthypositiontobendbutnotbreakinthefaceoflargeshockswillneedtocomeinevidencethatUSlabordemand

slowsmaterially—toroughly100kpermonthlaterthisyear—withoutadramaticincreaseinlayoffs.Asustaineddouble-digitspikeinUSinitialjoblessclaimsoveritsthree-monthaveragehasprovidedareliablesignalofaslideintorecessioninthepast.Amoveuptoaroughly

275kaveragenextquarterwouldlikelysignalaretrench-mentistakinghold(Figure3).

Figure3:USinitialjoblessclaims

3m/3m,sa

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

677277828792970207121722

Source:J.P.Morgan

AsiatocushiongrowthasOmicronfades

OffsettingbuildingdownwardmomentumintheUSandEuropeisthefadingofAsianOmicron-relateddrags.Theregion’sreopeningdynamicisalreadyunderway,apparentthisweekinthestrongreboundinJapan’sflashservicesactivityPMIandbroadstabilityinthemanufacturingoutputPMIforJune—cappinga7.3-ptrecoveryinJapan’sall-indus-tryoutputPMIsinceitbottomedinMarch.Welookformod-estgainsinChina’sJunePMIreleasesnextweekaslock-downseaseandsupplychaindislocationsfade.WhilearecoveryofIPandexportsisevidentinMaydata,individualmobilityrestrictionsmostlywerenoteaseduntilJune.AbroadeningrecoveryinChina’sJuneservicesPMIswouldsignalthatourforecastistracking.

ElsewhereastrongMayexportordersreportforTaiwanIPsurgeinSingaporeelectronicsreinforcesourview.WearealsoexpectingadditionalpolicysupportsinChinaconcentrat-edinfront-loadedinfrastructurespending.GivenimportsofindustrialcommoditiesdidnotfallwithactivityasChinaaccumulatedinventories,anysubsequentupwardpressureoncommodityimportdemandorpricesislikelytobemodestasthereopeningadvances—reinforcedbytheexpectationthatdomesticserviceswillleadthebounce.Althoughpropertymarketactivityremainssluggish,weexpectsomeimprove-mentin3Qandamoremeaningfulrecoveryinto4Qashous-ingpolicyhasbeeneasedaswell.

Themixedblessingsofaweakeryen

Sinceend-2021,theJapaneseyenhasdepreciatednearly12%onatrade-weightedbasisandover17%againsttheUSdol-lar—to135andonitswayto140byyear-endaccordingtoourFXstrategists.MuchofthismovementhasbeendrivenbyawideninggapbetweentheFed’sacceleratedhikingplansandtheBoJ’sinsistenceonmaintainingitsveryaccommoda-tivestance.WhileaweakercurrencyhasoftenbeenseenasbeneficialwithinJapan,currentviewsaremoremixed.With

3

JPMorganChaseBankNA

BruceKasman(1-212)834-5515

bruce.c.kasman@

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@

MichaelSHanson(1-212)622-8603michael.s.hanson@

GlobalEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch

24June2022

headlineinflationat2.5%oya(largelyduetohigherfoodandenergyprices—theBoJ’scoremeasureremainsamuted0.8%oya,reinforcingitsstance),publicopinionhasshiftedagainstthispolicybutpoliticalpressureontheBoJremainslimited.Lingeringsupply-chainconstraintshaveprecludedtheweakyenfromboostingexportvolumes;thisdynamiccanbeseenintheflashJunePMIandshouldrestrainMayIPgrowthnextweek(welookfor-0.8%m/mand-3.5%q/qin2Q).However,ithasboostedexporters’profitsdenominatedinyen,andnextweek’sJuneTankansurveyshouldshowgrowingoperatingprofitsandcapexplansexpectedamonglargefirmsforFY22.Thatsaid,sentimentofsmallerdomes-ticfirmscouldfallonhighercostsfromaweakeryen.

TighteningbiasremainsinEMAsia…

AlthoughseveralEMAsiancentralbankshaverecentlyshownsignsofmovingmoretentatively,westillseearisingregionaltrendincoreinflationencouragingmorehawkishpolicystancesovertime.Followinglastweek’ssmallerthanexpected12.5bphikeinTaiwan(reflectingdomesticOmicronconcerns),thisweekthePhilippinesonlyhiked25bpagainstourexpectationfora50bpmove.Weseebothastemporaryslowdownsinthepaceoftighteninggivenmountingpricepressures.WeexpecttheBSPtodeliverfurtherhikesovercomingmeetings,followingthroughonitscommitmenttoreturninflationtoa“target-consistentpath”overthemediumtermandtoanchorinflationexpectations.BankIndonesiaheldpolicysteadythisweekasexpected,butwepostponedtheBI’sliftoffbyamonthtoAugustasadditionallargefuelsubsidiesshouldflattenthisyear’sCPItrajectory.Againstthesemoregradualmoves,inSingaporewenowexpectfur-therpolicytighteninginanoff-cycleMASmeetinginJulythroughthere-centering(andpossibleslopesteepening)oftheNEER.

…asotherEMCBsaddfurtherhikes...

InflationarypressureshavebeenevenstrongeracrossmanyeconomiesinEMEAandLatAm,andthisweekweaccelerat-edourcallsforseveralofthosecentralbanks.Mexicohiked75bpto7.75%asexpectedbutsurprisedbycharacterizinginflationexpectationsasrisingalongwiththeiryear-endinflationforecast.Wenowseeanother75bpmoveinAugustandhaverevisedupourterminalrateprojectionby100bpto10.25%latethisyear.FollowinganannouncementofearlyelectionsinIsraelin4Q22,wenowseetheBoIemboldenedtodeliveralarger50bpmoveinJuly.Wealsoaddedanother25bphikelaterthisyeartoreach2.0%byend-2022.Similar-ly,weadded50bpin2HforSARB—with50bphikesateachofthethreeremainingmeetingsthisyear—tobringthepolicyrateto6.25%byyear-end.Theriskisforevenlargermovesgivenmorerapidtighteningglobally(includingtheFed),ahigherfoodinflationprofile,andrisksformorepronouncedFXpass-throughinSouthAfrica.

Figure4:EvolutionofEM*inflationandpolicyrateforecasts

CPIis%Dec/Dec;policyrateispercentperannum

7End-22CPI

End-22

6policyrate

5End-23

policyrate

4

3End-23CPI

Nov19,21Jan12,22Mar7,22Apr30,22Jun24,22

Source:J.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.*ExcludesChina,Turkey

…butendmaybenearingelsewhereinEM

EMcentralbanksthatarefurtheralongintheirhikingcyclesarenowpivoting—oratleastattemptingtopivot—tomorebalancedapproachesasdownsideriskstoactivitybecomemoresalient.Thatsaid,continuedupsidesurprisestoinflationandexpectationsforfurtherFedtighteningarekeepingtheheaton(Figure4).WithinflationinCzechiarunning16%oya,thisweektheCNBhiked125bpto7%asexpected.Butadovishshiftinthecompositionoftheboardandclearsignsofagrowthslowdownsuggestafinal50bpmoveinAugust.InBrazil,theminutesoftheJuneCOPOMmeetingsignaledhigherratesforlonger—consistentwithourcallforanother50bphikeinAugusttoaterminal13.75%.However,wenowpushbackourexpectationforeasingtonotstartuntillate2Q23.ThiswilltaketheSELICratedownto11%byend-2023,versus9.75%previously.NextweekColombiashouldhike150bpto7.5%—withsomeriskformoregivenboomygrowthandrisinginflationexpectations—andreachaterminal8.5%nextquarter.Atthesametime,thefrontiereconomiesofEgyptandGeorgiakeptmonetarypolicyonholddespitehigherinflationandstronggrowth.

4

JPMorganChaseBankNA

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612

carlton.m.strong@

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@

GlobalEconomicResearch

GlobalSummaryOutlook

24June2022

GlobalSummaryOutlook

RealGDP

RealGDP

Consumerprices

%overayearago

%overpreviousperiod,saar

%overayearago

2021

2022

2023

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

4Q22

1Q23

4Q212Q224Q222Q23

UnitedStates

Canada

LatinAmerica

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Mexico

Peru

Uruguay

Asia/Pacific

Japan

Australia

NewZealand

EMAsia

China

India

ExChina/India

HongKong

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

WesternEurope

Euroarea

Germany

France

Italy

Spain

Norway

Sweden

UnitedKingdom

EMEAEM

CzechRepublic

Hungary

Israel

Poland

Romania

Russia

SouthAfrica

Turkey

5.7

4.5

6.6

10.3

4.6

11.7

10.7

4.2

4.8

13.5

4.4

6.3

1.7

4.8

5.7

7.4

8.1

8.7

4.5

6.3

3.7

4.2

3.1

5.7

7.6

6.6

1.5

5.6

5.3

2.9

6.8

6.6

5.1

4.2

4.9

7.4

6.4

3.3

7.1

7.9

5.9

6.0

4.7

4.9

11.0

2.4

3.8

2.3h

2.8

1.2

1.6

6.5

3.1

2.4h

2.6

4.5

3.6i

1.7

3.6

1.6

4.1

3.7

6.6

3.9

0.4

4.8

2.7

7.2

8.5

4.3

3.3i

3.0

3.3

3.3

2.6

2.5

3.3

4.3i

3.1

1.6

3.4

1.2

3.2

5.8

5.4

6.1

6.0

-5.0

2.5

3.7

1.6

2.1

3.02.0

2.6

3.3

2.01.05.0-

i

6.9

6.6

3.5

6.3

2.7

7.0

10.5

2.9

1.0

3.1

8.3

7.6i

4.0

15.3

12.4

7.9i

7.5

7.3i

9.4

0.0

14.0

5.5

19.7

14.7

9.5

10.1

7.4

1.9

1.0

-1.4

1.8

2.8

9.2

5.6

4.7

5.2

6.2

3.2

9.1

15.6

7.4

4.1

3.9

5.6

6.2

-1.5

3.1

3.2

3.8

4.0

-3.0

4.0

3.5

4.1

-1.7

2.6

4.8

-0.5

3.1

-0.6

6.1

6.8

7.9

3.5

-11.1

3.5

2.6

16.4

7.6

2.8

4.3

4.7

2.3

2.5

0.9

-0.8

0.5

0.8i

-2.4

-3.2

3.0

4.1

3.7

8.7

-1.9

10.0

22.5

-1.4

8.0

4.9

2.5

4.5

1.7

-4.01.5-5.0

8.0

2.5

5.0

-4.00.0

-1.0

4.02.12.6

-2.3

-5.44.5

3.1

13.04.01.04.07.07.0

-1.2

1.2

1.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 2.0 1.5 4.0 1.3 -2.0 -7.4 0.5 3.0 3.6 0.0 2.4-22.0 -1.0-1.2

h

h

h

i

i

i

i

2.0

2.6

-0.1i

-1.5

-2.0

-3.0

0.0i

2.0

1.5i

9.0

1.0

5.6h

3.5

1.9

2.8

6.3h

7.5

4.5

3.7h

6.5

4.2

3.0

3.0

6.0

1.0

3.2h

3.9

2.5

2.8

4.0

2.0

2.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

1.8

-3.6

1.8

1.0

3.0

1.5

3.0

-13.0

1.5

0.4

2.0

2.3

0.2i

0.5

-1.6

0.0

0.0i

3.0

1.5h

4.0

2.4

5.2

2.5

2.8

2.2

6.0

7.3

4.0

3.4

6.0

4.2

2.5

3.0

6.0

1.3

2.8i

3.2

2.3

2.8

4.0

2.0

1.5

2.5

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.4

2.3

2.0

3.0

2.5

2.4

0.5

1.0

0.8

1.8

1.22.00.52.4

4.01.05.54.02.06.56.02.0

2.8

3.3

2.02.53.03.01.54.1

6.7

4.7

8.3

51.4

10.5

6.6

5.2

1.8

7.0

6.0

7.9

2.1

0.5

3.5

5.9

2.4

1.8

5.0

2.9

2.0

1.8

3.5

3.2

3.6

3.7

i2.7

2.4

4.6

4.6

5.4

3.3

3.7

5.8

3.4

3.3

4.9

10.3

6.1

7.1

2.5

7.7

8.0

8.3

5.4

25.8

8.4

7.3

10.060.811.9

7.8

8.09.1

6.9

3.4

2.3

7.34.4

2.9

5.45.7

3.46.1

8.07.2

9.1

23.715.810.64.3

14.1

14.417.2

6.6

72.3

h

h

h

h

i

h

i

h

i

h

6.9

6.88.0

8.74.2

7.5

5.88.3

6.6

4.7

3.3

5.35.3

3.15.8

7.6

7.8

9.521.7

17.014.14.9

16.0

13.815.2

7.4

61.5

h

h

h

i

h

i

h

h

h

i

h

3.8

2.65.1

68.65.0

5.2

3.96.1

2.7

1.8

2.4

5.42.8

2.3

3.42.7

2.02.3

3.1

3.0

5.2

8.78.310.03.310.09.25.5

5.4

18.4

hh

h

h

hh

hh

h

h

h

Global

Developedmarkets

6.0

5.2

3.0

2.7

2.61.9

5.9

5.0

2.4

0.3

0.3

2.2

3.1

2.4

3.2

2.2

2.81.8

4.7

5.1

7.2

7.5

h

6.7

6.6

h

3.5

3.3h

EmergingmarketsEmergingexChina

7.1

6.2

3.5

3.2

3.8

2.4

i

7.2

6.8i

5.5

4.3

-2.5h0.2h

4.1

1.0

4.7

2.2

4.23.0

4.1

6.4

6.9

11.4

h

6.810.4

h

h

3.9h5.3h

Global—PPPweighted

6.3

3.5

3.0

6.1i

3.3

-0.5h

2.8

3.4

3.1

4.9

8.2

h

7.5

3.9h

Source:GovernmentagenciesandJ.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Detailsonrequest.Note:ForsomeemergingeconomiesseasonallyadjustedGDPdataareestimatedbyJ.P.Morgan.BolddenoteschangesfromlasteditionofGlobalDataWatch,witharrowsshowingthedirectionofchanges.UnderlineindicatesbeginningofJ.P.Morganforecasts.Unlessnoted,concurrentnominalGDPweightscalculatedwithcurrentFXratesareusedincomputingourglobalandregionalaggregates.RegionalCPIaggregatesexcludeArgentinaandEcuador.Source:J.P.Morgan.Anylong-formnomenclatureforreferencestoChina;HongKong;andTaiwanwithinthisresearchmaterialisMainlandChina;HongKongSAR(China)andTaiwan(China).

JPMorganChaseBankNA

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612

carlton.m.strong@

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@

GlobalEconomicResearch

GlobalDataWatch

24June2022

G-3economicoutlookdetail

2021

2022

2023

2021202220234Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q

UnitedStates

RealGDP

2.5 2.3 3.0 2.7 5.6-12.7149.3 -0.212.0 3.0 1.7 0.0 0.8 8.4 5.94.9

2.04.06.02.3-0.1-

6.82.0

4.0 7.0 5.0 2.0 -0.5 -3.0-10.0-10.0 3.9 0.1 0.0 2.10.2

2.5-3.5-1.22.1

2.4 3.0 5.2 -1.3 8.6 -4.5175.9 -0.6 4.010.2 2.4 1.0 -1.0 8.0 5.7 4.7 -4.2 3.9 3.74.3

1.16.0--

1.7 3.8 0.5 -2.1-10.3 0.1 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.5 -0.3 1.8 -0.2 -5.9 2.5 0.63.0

6.9 2.5 2.8 -8.3 8.9 2.2193.2 -2.622.417.9 1.8 5.3 -0.2 6.7 5.04.6

1.0-1.013.21.41.8-

7.1-0.8

4.010.1 0.3 -4.5-17.6 -1.1 3.6 1.4 4.0 -0.4 0.4 0.5-1.5

3.0

1.6 2.0 2.5 5.0 5.5 -2.6228.5 2.2 -0.9 4.2 2.2 0.2 -0.8 3.7 3.2 2.9 -3.6 2.3 3.70.7

2.3-2.4-

1.1-0.7-1.70.0-

-1.5 3.113.2 -3.611.6 0.4149.6 -2.7 -5.418.3 2.8 -1.1 -3.2 8.0 6.35.2

2.5-2.70.2-1.41.5-2.3-6.12.7

6.83.7

-0.5 0.2 -2.8 -4.8-14.7 2.0 4.613.9 -0.8 2.0 -1.6 0.9-2.1

3.3

1.3 2.0 2.5 4.0 5.0 -1.0236.1 1.9 -1.5 4.0 2.3 0.0 -1.0 3.8 3.22.9

2.32.03.21.02.5

6.42.5

1.01.23.01.0-0.5-1.01.51.00.90.0

2.45.02.73.9

1.8 2.0 2.5 4.0 6.0 -1.0238.5 2.3 -1.5 4.0 2.4 0.3 -1.0 5.4 4.03.4

2.32.03.50.03.1

6.54.0

1.01.23.01.0-0.5-1.01.51.00.90.00.12.01.1

2.45.03.22.8

2.0 2.0 2.5 7.0 6.0 -4.0221.6 2.9 -2.0 5.0 2.4 0.8 -1.2 6.9 4.83.9

3.03.60.0

2.84.05.00.0-3.6

6.65.0

2.53.05.01.0-1.0-1.00.30.02.21.0

3.2

5.7 7.913.1 -8.010.0 9.2-32.6 0.5 4.514.0 6.5 0.4 -1.2 4.7 3.6 3.3-12.112.2 5.46.2

3.91.5-

1.71.3-0.4-1.9-5.10.8-0.21.1-0.2-0.9-8.0

Privateconsumption

Equipmentinvestment

Non-residentialconstruction

Intellectualpropertyproducts

Residentialconstruction

Inventorychange($bnsaar)

GovernmentspendingExportsofgoodsandservices

ImportsofgoodsandservicesDomesticfinalsalescontributionInventoriescontribution

Nettradecontribution

Consumerprices(%oya)

Excludingfoodandenergy(%oya)CorePCEdeflator(%oya)

Federalbudgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)Personalsavingrate(%)Unemploymentrate(%)

Industrialproduction,manufacturing

Euroarea

RealGDP

2.0

1.9

3.0

9.0

6.0

-4.0

182.9

3.5

-2.0

5.0

2.5

0.7

-1.2

8.5

5.7

4.7

3.0

3.6

0.0

Privateconsumption

Capitalinvestment

Governmentconsumption

Exportsofgoodsandservices

Importsofgoodsandservices

Domesticfinalsalescontribution

Inventoriescontribution

Nettradecontribution

Consumerprices(HICP,%oya)

exfood,alcoholandenergy

Generalgovt.budgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)Unemploymentrate(%)

Industrialproduction

Japan

RealGDP

2.8

4.0

5.0

1.0

6.0

7.0

3.3

-0.4

-0.2

8.4

3.6

6.7

4.0

Privateconsumption

Businessinvestment

Residentialconstruction

Publicinvestment

Governmentconsumption

Exportsofgoodsandservices

Importsofgoodsandservices

Domesticfinalsalescontribution

Inventoriescontribution

Nettradecontribution

Consumerprices(%oya)

exfoodandenergy

Glending(%ofGDP,CY)Unemploymentrate(%)

Industrialproduction

3.5

6.0

5.0

1.0

-1.0

-2.0

1.5

-1.0

3.6

-0.6

0.5

1.9

0.3

Memo:Globalindustrial%oya

production

5

2.4

6.0

6.8

3.2

Source:GovernmentagenciesandJ.P.MorganGlobalEconomics.Detailsonrequest.

6

JPMorganChaseBankNA

CarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612

carlton.m.strong@

JosephLupton(1-212)834-5735

joseph.p.lupton@

GlobalEconomicResearch

GlobalCentralBankWatch

24June2022

GlobalCentralBankWatch

Official

rate

Current4-qrtrchange(bp)

rate(%pa)LastNext

LastchangeNext

mtg

Forecast

nextchange

Forecast(%pa)Jun22Sep22

Dec22Mar23Jun23

Global

2.23

88

113

2.26

2.82

3.12

3.32

3.35

excludingUS

2.41

76

89

2.46

2.85

3.08

3.25

3.30

Developed

0.82

69

154

0.87

1.65

2.05

2.27

2.36

Emerging

4.40

117

49

4.41

4.63

4.79

4.94

4.89

LatinAmerica

10.01

659

90

10.13

10.96

11.31

11.35

10.91

EMEAEM

7.92

227

72

7.94

8.05

8.16

8.79

8.65

EMAsia

2.91

18

39

2.91

3.07

3.21

3.28

3.31

TheAmericas

2.77

212

164

2.87

3.80

4.25

4.47

4.42

UnitedStates

Fedfunds1.75

150

17515Jun22(+75bp)27Jul22Jul22(+50bp)

1.75

2.75

3.25

3.50

3.50

Canada

O/Nrate1.50

125

1751Jun22(+50bp)13Jul2213Jul22(+75bp)

2.75

3.00

3.00

3.25

3.25

Brazil

SELICO/N13.25

900

-2515Jun22(+50bp)3Aug22Aug22(+50bp)

13.25

13.75

13.75

13.75

13.00

Mexico

Reporate7.75

373

25023Jun22(+75bp)11Aug2211Aug22(+75bp)

7.75

9.00

10.00

10.25

10.25

Chile

Discrate9.00

850

-257Jun22(+75bp)14Jul2213Jul22(+50bp)

9.00

10.00

10.25

9.75

8.75

Colombia

Reporate6.00

425

25029Apr22(+100bp)30Jun2230Jun22(+150bp)

7.50

8.50

8.50

8.50

8.50

Peru

Reference5.50

525

09Jun22(+50bp)7Jul227Jul22(+50bp)

5.50

6.00

6.00

6.00

5.50

Europe/Africa

1.47

64

151

1.49

2.10

2.48

2.81

2.98

Euroarea

Deporate-0.50

0

17512Sep19(-10bp)21Jul22Jul22(+25bp)

-0.50

0.25

0.75

1.00

1.25

UnitedKingdom

Bankrate1.25

115

15016Jun22(+25bp)4Aug22Aug22(+50bp)

1.25

2.00

2.25

2.50

2.75

Norway

Deprate1.25

125

15023Jun22(+75bp)18Aug2218Aug22(+25bp)

1.25

1.75

2.25

2.50

2.75

17528Apr19(+25bp)29Jun2230Jun22(+50bp)

Sweden

Reporate0.25

25

0.75

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

CzechRepublic

2-wkrepo7.00

650

022Jun22(+125bp)4Aug22August22(+50bp)

7.00

7.50

7.50

7.50

7.00

Hungary

Baserate5.90

500

36031May22(+50bp)28Jun22Jun22(+50bp)

6.40

7.90

9.50

9.50

9.50

Israel

Baserate0.75

65

17523May22(+40bp)4Jul224Jul22(+50bp)

0.75

1.50

2.00

2.25

2.50

Poland

7-dayinterv6.00

590

1258Jun22(+75bp)7Jul22July22(+75bp)

6.00

6.75

7.25

7.25

7.25

Romania

Baserate3.75

250

42510May(+75bp)6Jul226Jul22(+100bp)

3.75

5.75

6.75

7.75

8.00

Russia

Keypolrate9.50

400

-25010Jun22(-150bp)22Jul22Jul22(-50bp)

9.50

8.50

8.00

7.50

7.00

SouthAfrica

Reporate4.75

125

22519May22(+25bp)21Jul22Jul22(+50bp)

4.75

5.75

6.25

6.75

7.00

Turkey

1-wkrepo14.00

-1900

40016Dec21(-100bp)21Jul221Q23(+400bp)

14.00

14.00

14