基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究

基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)的裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究摘要：

裝配式建筑施工是一種新型的建筑技術(shù)，具有高效、環(huán)保、安全等優(yōu)勢(shì)。然而，施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)成為制約其發(fā)展的重要因素。本文基于系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)理論，對(duì)裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行分析與研究。首先，分析了裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的特點(diǎn)和原因。其次，建立了以系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)為框架的裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理模型，并進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析及靈敏度分析。研究結(jié)果表明，裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的主要來(lái)源包括人員、材料、設(shè)備等多個(gè)方面。針對(duì)不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的影響，應(yīng)采取不同的管理策略，包括加強(qiáng)監(jiān)管、提高材料質(zhì)量等。此外，本研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)，系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)方法在裝配式建筑施工進(jìn)度風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中具有很好的應(yīng)用前景。

關(guān)鍵詞：系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)；裝配式建筑；施工進(jìn)度；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理；模型

Abstract:

Prefabricatedconstructionisanewtypeofbuildingtechnologywithadvantagessuchashighefficiency,environmentalprotection,andsafety.However,theriskofconstructionprogresshasbecomeanimportantfactorthatrestrictsitsdevelopment.Basedonthetheoryofsystemdynamics,thispaperanalyzesandstudiestheriskofconstructionprogressinprefabricatedconstruction.Firstly,thecharacteristicsandreasonsoftheriskofconstructionprogressinprefabricatedconstructionareanalyzed.Secondly,ariskmanagementmodelofconstructionprogressinprefabricatedconstructionbasedonsystemdynamicsisestablished,andempiricalanalysisandsensitivityanalysisarecarriedout.Theresultsshowthatthemainsourcesofriskintheconstructionprogressofprefabricatedconstructionincludepersonnel,materials,equipment,andotheraspects.Differentmanagementstrategiesshouldbetakenaccordingtotheimpactofdifferentrisksources,includingstrengtheningsupervisionandimprovingthequalityofmaterials.Inaddition,thisstudyalsofoundthatthesystemdynamicsmethodhasagoodapplicationprospectintheriskmanagementofconstructionprogressinprefabricatedconstruction.

Keywords:Systemdynamic;Prefabricatedconstruction;Constructionprogress;Riskmanagement;ModePrefabricatedconstructionhasemergedasapopularwayofconstructingbuildingsduetoitsadvantagesofimprovingconstructionefficiency,reducinglaborintensity,andminimizingconstructionwaste.However,likeanyotherconstructionproject,itisalsosubjecttoarangeofrisksthatcanimpedeitsprogress.Therefore,effectiveriskmanagementstrategiesareessentialforensuringthetimelycompletionofprefabricatedconstructionprojects.

Thepresentstudyexploredtheapplicationofsystemdynamicsintheriskmanagementofconstructionprogressinprefabricatedconstruction.Thesystemdynamicsmethodwasusedtoconstructamodelthatcansimulatetheconstructionprogressofprefabricatedbuildingsandidentifythefactorsthataffectconstructionprogress.

Thefindingsofthestudyrevealedthatschedule,cost,andqualityriskswerethekeyrisksourcesinprefabricatedconstructionprojects.Theseriskswerefoundtobelinkedtofactorssuchasmaterialsupply,equipmentavailability,andsiteconditions.Therefore,differentmanagementstrategiesshouldbeadoptedforeachrisksource,includingstrengtheningsupervisionandimprovingthequalityofmaterials.

Thesystemdynamicsmethoddemonstratedthatitwasaneffectivetoolforanalyzingtherisksandpredictingtheconstructionprogressofprefabricatedconstructionprojects.Themodelmadeitpossibletoidentifythefactorsthatdriveconstructionprogressandthefactorsthatimpedeit.

Inconclusion,theriskmanagementofconstructionprogressinprefabricatedconstructioniscriticalforsuccessfulprojectcompletion.Thefindingsofthisstudyhighlighttheimportanceofadoptingasystematicapproachtoriskmanagementinprefabricatedconstructionprojects.ThesystemdynamicsmethodisapromisingtoolthatcanbeusedtodevelopeffectiveriskmanagementstrategiesinprefabricatedconstructionprojectsInadditiontoriskmanagement,thereareseveralotherfactorsthatcanimpedetheprogressofconstructioninprefabricatedconstructionprojects.Thesefactorscanbecategorizedasinternalorexternalfactors.

Internalfactorsrefertochallengeswithintheconstructionprojectitself.Oneofthemaininternalfactorsthatcanimpedeconstructionprogressisthelackofcoordinationandcommunicationbetweendifferentteamsordepartmentsinvolvedintheproject.Prefabricatedconstructionnecessitatesclosecollaborationbetweenthedesign,fabrication,andinstallationteams,andanybreakdownincommunicationbetweentheseteamscanleadtodelaysanderrorsintheproject.

Anotherinternalfactorthatcanimpedeconstructionprogressisthequalityoftheprefabricatedcomponents.Ifthecomponentsarenotmanufacturedaccordingtotherequiredspecificationsorqualitystandards,theymaynotfittogetherasintended,leadingtoreworkanddelays.Additionally,poorqualitycomponentscanalsocompromisethesafetyandintegrityoftheoverallstructure.

Externalfactorsrefertochallengesthatarisefromoutsidetheconstructionproject.Oneofthemainexternalfactorsthatcanimpedeconstructionprogressistheavailabilityofmaterialsandresources.Prefabricatedconstructionoftenreliesonthetimelydeliveryofmaterialsandcomponents,andanydelaysinthesupplychaincanleadtodelaysinconstructionprogress.

Anotherexternalfactorthatcanimpedeconstructionprogressisregulatorycompliance.Prefabricatedconstructionprojectsaresubjecttovariousregulationsandbuildingcodes,andanyfailuretocomplywiththeseregulationscanresultindelaysorevenlegalconsequences.Therefore,itisessentialtoensurethatallrelevantpermitsandapprovalsareobtainedbeforecommencingconstruction.

Finally,externalfactorssuchasweatherconditionsandnaturaldisasterscanalsoimpedeconstructionprogress.Prefabricatedconstructionprojectsareparticularlyvulnerabletoadverseweatherconditionssuchashighwindsorheavyrainfall,whichcanimpactthetransportationandinstallationofcomponents.

Inconclusion,whileriskmanagementisessentialforsuccessfulprefabricatedconstructionprojects,itisalsocriticaltoidentifyandaddressotherfactorsthatcanimpedeconstructionprogress.Byaddressingthesechallenges,projectteamscanensurethatconstructionprogressessmoothlyandefficiently,leadingtoon-timeandon-budgetprojectcompletionDevelopmentsintechnologyandinnovationsinconstructionmethodscontinuetoshapethefutureofprefabricatedconstruction.Asmorestakeholders,includingarchitects,contractors,andinvestors,explorethebenefitsofprefabrication,itiscriticaltoaddressthechallengesthatcanariseduringconstruction.Whenriskmanagementisappropriatelyintegratedintoprojectplanningandexecution,prefabricatedconstructionremainsaviableandcost-effectivemethodforbuildingsolutions.However,aswithanyconstructionproject,carefulattentionmustbepaidtoaddressingunanticipatedchallengessuchaslaborshortages,permittingdelays,andadverseweathercon