預(yù)測2022年及以后的亞洲通貨膨脹英kantar2022455商業(yè)調(diào)研報(bào)告

企業(yè)研究報(bào)告March

2022Anticipating

Inflation

in

Asia2022

&

BeyondWe

want

to

thank

our

key

industryexperts

for

their

contribution

Felicia

JulianMarketing

Director

Frisian

Flag

Indonesia,

FrieslandCampina

Kyle

Artz

Vice

President

of

Strategy,Greater

Chinese

Mainland

&Mongolia

Operating

Unit,

The

Coca-Cola

Company

2

Nirupama

KannanHead

of

Category

Leadership,

Mars

Wrigley

Asia

Alpana

Titus

Vice

President

for

Foods

&Refreshment

-

Unilever

SEATResidential-20-40-60-8020

0408060WorkplacesGrocery

&

Pharmacy

Stores-20-40-60-8020

0408060

-20

-40

-60

-80Source:

Google

COVID-19

Community

Mobility

Trends

–

Last

updates

17

March

202220

0408060What

Now:

Highest

mobility

increase

with

shoppers

returning

to

workplaces

and

visitinggrocery

stores;

Time

spent

at

home

also

relatively

lower

now

compared

to

previous

years.Google

Mobility

Trends,

17th

Feb

2020

–

17th

March

20223MalaysiaIndonesiaThailandPhilippinesVietnamKoreaTaiwanIndia研究報(bào)告撰寫規(guī)范A

課題研究進(jìn)入結(jié)題階段，撰寫研究報(bào)告成為最重要的工作。寫作研究報(bào)告，除了課題研究與實(shí)驗(yàn)要有充分的基礎(chǔ)以外，首先要確定研究報(bào)告的文體類型。課題研究報(bào)告屬于教育科研應(yīng)用文體。這類文體包括學(xué)術(shù)論文、調(diào)查報(bào)告、實(shí)驗(yàn)報(bào)告、經(jīng)驗(yàn)總結(jié)報(bào)告等等。如果課題是對(duì)某種教育現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行的調(diào)查，就應(yīng)寫作調(diào)查報(bào)貨：如果課題為實(shí)驗(yàn)研究，就應(yīng)寫作實(shí)驗(yàn)研究報(bào)告：如果既有理論研究又有實(shí)驗(yàn)內(nèi)容的，研究報(bào)告就要二者兼顧。我市“十一五”立項(xiàng)課題，大都屬于實(shí)驗(yàn)研究報(bào)告，也有部分是調(diào)查報(bào)告的，少部分是理論與實(shí)驗(yàn)研究都有的，很少有單純進(jìn)行理論研究的。12010473119997611360

464020

0120100

80160140Chinese

MainlandKoreaTaiwanIndonesiaMalaysiaThailandPhilippinesVietnam2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q4Consumers

are

generally

more

confident

now

vs.

a

year

ago

being

adapted

to

the

new

realitiescoupled

with

the

increased

mobility.

However,

sentiment

level

of

some

markets

have

fallenslightly

in

latest

quarter

potentially

driven

by

growing

concerns

over

rising

prices.ASIA

–

Consumer

Confidence

Index

(100

indicates

neutrality)4Inflation

fearscreeping

in

as

pricesand

cost

of

living

areexpected

to

go

up.58.0%5.4%5.3%4.5%4.1%4.1%2.9%2.9%2.6%3.7%1.7%1.2%6.7%0.8%1.0%0.6%0.2%0.8%1.2%7.0%-2.5%-8.3%0.1%-0.2%-0.9%-1.6%-0.8%-4.3%-5.2%-2.7%7Chinese

MainlandSouth

KoreaTaiwanIndonesiaThailandPen.

MalaysiaPhilippinesVietnam

(U)Vietnam

(R)IndiaAverage

Pack

SizeVolumeAverage

price

increase

seen

across

most

markets

with

volume

slowdown;

whilst

shoppers

inChinese

Mainland,

Indonesia

and

Philippines

potentially

switching

to

cheaper

products.ASIA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Growth

Rates

FY

2021

v.

YA

Average

Price

in

KG/LNorthAsiaSoutheastAsia研究報(bào)告撰寫規(guī)范B

課題規(guī)劃的研究內(nèi)容是課題研究報(bào)告的引言部分，這部分內(nèi)容主要體現(xiàn)了課題組如何按照教育科研的程序?qū)逃龁栴}進(jìn)行規(guī)劃研究的。只有寫好引言部分的內(nèi)容才能為課題研究報(bào)告打好學(xué)術(shù)基礎(chǔ)，為課題研究構(gòu)建起嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)膶W(xué)術(shù)邏輯。因此，引言的內(nèi)容體現(xiàn)了課題組的學(xué)術(shù)功底，體現(xiàn)了課題研究的學(xué)術(shù)基礎(chǔ)，也是課題組學(xué)習(xí)研究的具體體現(xiàn)。引言部分可分為問題的提出、對(duì)問題規(guī)劃研究的邏輯建構(gòu)、課題的研究過程與研究方法三個(gè)層面十一個(gè)條日的問題。這些內(nèi)容的表述程序構(gòu)成一個(gè)逐層推進(jìn)的嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)倪壿嬄?lián)系。SEA

markets

forecasted

with

steady

FMCG

growth

despite

price

increase

as

likely

due

to

theopening

of

local

economy.

Chinese

Mainland

market

forecasted

to

be

‘soft’

in

Q2

beforerebounding

in

Q3.8-6%-8%-2%-4%0%2%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Lockdown

stay

athome

in

most

marketsVaccination

roll

out

+restriction

relaxationEndemic

and

inflationSEA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Quarterly

Growth-6%-8%-2%-4%0%2%12%

10%10%

8%

8%

6%

6%

4%

4%12%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Lockdown

in

Q1Vaccination

roll

outInflationChinese

Mainland

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Quarterly

GrowthActualPrice

change

as

isPrice

slightly

increasedPrice

increased9shoppers

reactwhen

pricesincrease?What

we

will

cover

How

exposed

am

I

to

pressured

shoppers?

How

will

myWhat

could

be

mysilver

linings

thatlead

to

growth?10What

will

happenwhen

pricesincrease?研究報(bào)告撰寫規(guī)范C從我市進(jìn)入課題鑒定程序所提交的研究報(bào)告來看，這項(xiàng)內(nèi)容存在問題較多。課題的問題表述不清楚，或者表述不當(dāng)，課題研究報(bào)告就失去了基礎(chǔ)，鑒定也就難以通過。問題表述不當(dāng)主要表現(xiàn)在以下幾個(gè)方面：1.沒有表述問題。只交代了課題研究的背景，沒有把問題交代清楚。沒有問題表述的課題研究成果就不能算是真實(shí)的研究成果。只有把問題表述清楚、準(zhǔn)確、真實(shí)，才有進(jìn)行真正意義的研究。2.問題的表達(dá)大而空。雖然表達(dá)了問題，但不從教育實(shí)際問題入手的，只是寬泛或者概括地表達(dá)了一般的問題，是從我國、我省的角度表達(dá)的，很多課題研究報(bào)告只是把搜集到的有關(guān)問題表述粘貼過來，沒有根據(jù)自己的實(shí)際情況進(jìn)行分，沒有本校的實(shí)際問題。問題的表達(dá)大而空，不具體也不明確，課題研究中很難把握，使課題研究失去了研究的真實(shí)基礎(chǔ)，甚至失去了方向和目標(biāo)。3.問題的表達(dá)單一概略。雖然表達(dá)了本校的問題，但只有觀察性概述性表達(dá)，缺乏實(shí)證性表達(dá)，缺乏數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)和分析，對(duì)問題的研究方式比較單一，科學(xué)性不強(qiáng)。11Post-pandemic

shopping

behavior

continues.How

will

it

change

when

inflation

hits?ASIA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Growth

Rates

of

Average

Shopping

Trips

v.

Basket

Size

10%

5%

0%

-5%-10%-15%15%2020

20212020

20212020

20212020

20212020

20212020

20212020

20212020

20212020

20212020

2021Spend

per

tripOccasionsTotal

Growth

ChineseMainlandKoreaTaiwanIndonesiaThailandPen.

MalaysiaPhilippinesVietnam

(U)Vietnam

(R)IndiaNorthAsiaSoutheastAsia12Different

strategies

or

levers

shoppers

can

use

to

save

money.

Shopper

behaviour

of

a

category/sector

in

times

of

uncertaintyRepeat

buyer

behaviourBuy

less/

more

volumeSwitch

channelsBuy

cheaper

productsIncrease/

reduceoverall

category

volume

bought

Increase/

reducerepertoire

of

segment

Increase/ReducePromotional

relianceSwitching

brands,

non

branded,

PL

Product

Mix(sectors,

pack

sizes)New/

Lost

Buyers

Drop

or

enter

acategory12

w/e

2019/03/2412

w/e

2019/04/2112

w/e

2019/05/1912

w/e

2019/06/1612

w/e

2019/07/1412

w/e

2019/08/1112

w/e

2019/09/0812

w/e

2019/10/0612

w/e

2019/11/0312

w/e

2019/12/0112

w/e

2019/12/2912

w/e

2020/01/2612

w/e

2020/02/2312

w/e

2020/03/2212

w/e

2020/04/1912

w/e

2020/05/1712

w/e

2020/06/1412

w/e

2020/07/1212

w/e

2020/08/1612

w/e

2020/09/1312

w/e

2020/10/1112

w/e

2020/11/0812

w/e

2020/12/0612

w/e

2021/01/0312

w/e

2021/01/3112

w/e

2021/02/2812

w/e

2021/03/2812

w/e

2021/04/2512

w/e

2021/05/2312

w/e

2021/06/2012

w/e

2021/07/1812

w/e

2021/08/1512

w/e

2021/09/1212

w/e

2021/10/1012

w/e

2021/11/0712

w/e

2021/12/0512

w/e

2022/01/02Forecast

1Forecast

2Forecast

3Forecast

4Forecast

5Forecast

6Forecast

7Forecast

8Forecast

9Forecast

10Forecast

11Forecast

12Forecast

13Forecast

14Forecast

1568.989.631.923.868.9

67.742.135.425.520.3ThailandThailand

FIndonesiaIndonesia

FMalaysiaMalaysia

FPhillipinesPhillipines

FVietnam

(U)Vietnam

(U)

FActual

trendForecasted13Increase/

reduce

overall

category

volume

bought

Frequency

in

most

SEA

markets

are

unlikely

to

recover

to

pre-COVID

level

anytime

soon,

especially

with

price

increase.

12

w/e

FMCG

Actual

and

Forecasted

Frequency研究報(bào)告撰寫規(guī)范D研究題目，界定核心概念。即對(duì)題目的研究內(nèi)涵和外延進(jìn)行界定，課題研究首先要“入題”。一個(gè)研究課題的題目，往往有幾個(gè)核心概念組成。如“關(guān)于中小學(xué)課堂教學(xué)時(shí)間成本與教學(xué)效益的研究與實(shí)驗(yàn)”應(yīng)當(dāng)由三個(gè)核心概念組成，“中小學(xué)課堂教學(xué)時(shí)間成本”、“中小學(xué)課堂教學(xué)效益”，包括兩者之間的關(guān)系，以及“研究與實(shí)驗(yàn)”，對(duì)課題核心概念內(nèi)涵和外延的界定，就基本上畫出了課題的研究范圍與重點(diǎn)解決的問題。初次主持課題研究者往往忽略了這項(xiàng)內(nèi)容，致使課題研究的內(nèi)涵和外延不夠清楚，重點(diǎn)也難以突出：還有就是立項(xiàng)題日過大，研究界限不清楚，或難以把握。WHAT

ABOUT

OUT

OF

HOME?Nirupama

Kannan

,Head

of

Category

Leadership,

Mars

Wrigley

AsiaDuring

the

pandemic,

there

is

a

higher

incidence

ofplanned

shopping

trips

thereby

limiting

impulse

purchasesin-store.

Shoppers

are

focused

on

shopping

with

a

pre-planned

list

of

items

to

purchase

and

hence

there

is

lessbrowsing

and

top

ups

to

their

purchases.

On-the

goconsumption

has

also

reduced

hence

usage

occasionshave

changed

and

this

has

impacted

the

categoryperformance.1452%categoriesin:ofΔofcategoriesNumberoftrips>ΔinGrowth:pertripinVIETNAMChange

in

Spend

per

trip-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Change

in

Number

of

trips15

Each

Dot

is

an

CPG

Category(267

int

total

covering

all

grocery

and

toiletries)Increase/

reduce

overall

category

volume

bought

Hence

protecting

and

winning

each

trip

will

be

key

as

shoppers

continue

to

maximize

each

shopping

trip.

Vietnam

(U)

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Growth

Rates

FY2021

v.

YA

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%161.

Create

new

usage

/

occasions2.

Drive

heavier

basketsCHINSU

launched

7-daysbreakfast

package

withdifferent

types

of

noodle

andflavorsNew

launch

from

ORION

C’estBon

strongly

emphasize

on

the‘Convenient

Meal

&

Breakfast’message

to

create

new

usageoccasion

for

the

categorywhich

mainly

serves

forsnacking

occasionsKOKOMI

launched

biggerpack

90gr

on

top

of

their

65gr/

75gr

SKUsTEA+

launched

1L

multi-servepack

to

capture

In-Homeconsumption+8%incremental

occasions

forthe

category

in

P1Y+65%spend

growth

in

P6M

andhelp

drive

brand

recovery+6.4

PTSpenetration

in

less

than

ayear

of

launch

(since

March2021)Contributes72%volume

uplift

in

the

past

2years3.

Deliver

experienceNescafe

Can

released

it’s

NescafeAla

Café

variants

with

the

uniqueselling

point

of

bringing

the

caféexperience

wherever

you

are.

Withthe

limitation

of

brand

activationduring

pandemic,

they

launched

avirtual

concert

targeting

the

audienceof

Young

Adults.+570Khouseholds

within

7

months

oflaunch.VIETNAMVIETNAMINDONESIAIncrease/

reduce

overall

category

volume

bought

How

brands

have

successfully

drive

growth

whilst

addressing

frequency

challenge.FOOD

FOR

THOUGHTFelicia

Julian,Marketing

Director

at

Frisian

Flag

IndonesiaGiving

consumers

the

rightreason

to

buy/consume

is

key

tocontinue

being

part

of

their

basket;not

only

during

usage

but

alsototal

experience.172%2%0%1%4%-1%4%2%0%0%-2%-1%1%-2%0%-2%-2%-1%0%1%FY

2020FY

2021-7%4%1%9%0%-3%2%5%-4%-3%5%-1%

0%2%4%1%4%1%

2%1%ChineseKoreaTaiwanIndonesiaPen.

MalaysiaThailandPhilippinesVietnam

(U)Vietnam

(R)IndiaAverage

#categoriesbought

per

yearAverage

#

categoriesbought

per

tripMainland

18Increase/

reduce

repertoire

of

sectors

Potential

for

more

collaborations

of

adjacent

categories

as

shoppers

are

also

optimizing

each

trip

by

picking

up

more

categories.NorthAsiaSoutheastAsiaCHINESEMAINLANDSource:

FMCG

Household

Panel

China

National

Urban

12

Weeks

Rolling+1.9%+5.8%-1.1%+0.1%-7.1%-0.4%Chinese

Mainland

%

Contribution

to

FMCG

Household

Spending19Promotion

ChoiceLess

promotionevents

or

lower

discountchannelsHH

Volume

Store

Choice

Change

Shoppers

are

Shoppers

are

buying

in

less

buying

a

more

premium

stores

/FMCG

categories

and

/

or

a

higher

volume

withincertain

categories

Product

Choice

Shoppers

arechoosing

a

less

expensiveproduct

Inflation

Overall

like-for-like

price

increasefor

existing

SKUs

HH

Spend

Change

Shoppers

arespending

slightlyless

on

FMCG

vslast

year-3.3%

-3.0%3.4%Change

–

12

w/e

Dec

2021

Shopper

Responses

to

Price

Inflation

5.0%3.5%-0.2%-2.8%-4.5%-6.7%

-6.7%-7.6%-9.8%-7.1%21P1

21P2

21P3

21P4

21P5

21P6

21P7

21P8

21P9

21P10

21P11

21P12

21P1312

w/e

Trended

%

Product

Choice

ContributionProduct

Mix

(sectors,

pack

sizes)

In

China,

we

saw

shoppers

responded

to

inflation

mostly

by

trading

down

on

product

choice

–

where

do

you

think

your

category

or

brand

stands?20CoffeeWet

Tissues-20%

-5%-10%10%25%Sugar-20%

-10%-15%

Baby

Wipe0%5%

10%0%20%20%

30%15%40%MAINLANDVIETNAMProduct

Mix

(sectors,

pack

sizes)

Shoppers

are

exposed

to

different

trajectory

of

price

changes

that

are

often

polarized

even

within

the

category.

Take

Home

FMCG

Average

Price

Growth

12

w/e

Dec

2021

v.

YA

CHINESESource:

BG20

2700

brands

in

8

countries

(Austria,

Belgium,

Denmark,

France,

Netherlands,

Spain,

Sweden,

UK)Innovation

=

new

brands/sub-brands;

Renovation

=

new

sizes,

types,

varietiesFood

For

Thought:

Winning

brands

continue

to

invest

even

intimes

of

high

inflationDespite

the

significant

levels

of

price

inflation

in

2008,

brands

that

gainedshare

invested

much

more

than

losing

brands

in

new

products.GLOBAL

–

Winning

v.

Losing

share

brands

(2011

v.

2008)21Number

ofnew

productsInnovations

%contribution

to

brandRenovations

%contribution

to

brand35%more48%higher25%higherFOOD

FOR

THOUGHTAlpana

Titus

,Vice

President

for

Foods

&

Refreshment

at

Unilever

SEATSometimes

changing

consumerdynamics

and

inflationarypressures

force

us

to

be

our

mostinnovative.223.4%2.6%2.1%0.8%0.6%0.3%0.2%3.5%3.0%1.9%0.7%0.6%0.5%0.2%TaiwanKoreaPen.

MalaysiaThailandVietnam

UrbanChinese

MainlandPhilippines20192020202181%87%75%36%46%36%21%

Private

LabelsPenetration

%

-

FY202123+2.5

Mio+16

Mio-21

Mio-1

Mio39

K+235

Mio-4

MioTotal

Private

Labels

Spend

Change

(USD)

–

FY

2021

vs.

2020Switching

to

PL

Stronger

presence

and

performance

of

Private

Label

in

high

Modern

Trade

and

high

‘trust’

markets.

Notable

growth

in

Chinese

Mainland

partly

driven

by

the

emergence

of

O2O

model.

ASIA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Private

Labels

%

Spend

Contribution

and

ChangeSpend

Growth52

w/e

2020/04/1752

w/e

2021/08/1352

w/e

2019/12/2752

w/e

2020/01/2452

w/e

2020/02/2152

w/e

2020/03/2052

w/e

2020/05/1552

w/e

2020/06/1252

w/e

2020/07/1052

w/e

2020/08/1452

w/e

2020/09/1152

w/e

2020/10/0952

w/e

2020/11/0652

w/e

2020/12/0452

w/e

2021/01/0152

w/e

2021/01/2952

w/e

2021/02/2652

w/e

2021/03/2652

w/e

2021/04/2352

w/e

2021/05/2152

w/e

2021/06/1852

w/e

2021/07/1652

w/e

2021/09/1052

w/e

2021/10/0852

w/e

2021/11/0552

w/e

2021/12/0352

w/e

2021/12/31CHINESEMAINLANDPrice

Index

v.

Branded101%20%0%80%60%40%100%140%120%1E+09

05E+09

79%4E+093E+092E+096E+098E+097E+09Price

Index

v.

BrandedSpendPrice

Index

100Horizontal

marketplacesserving

retailers

&Vertical

groceryEcommerce

apps

withbrands

with

O2Odistribution

capabilitiesOffline

retailers

offeringO2O

services

via

self-owned

or

3rd

partydelivery

capabilitiesself-owned

stores

anddelivery

capabilitiesCommunity-basedgroup

buy

platformswith

‘communitycaptains’

coordinatingorder,

delivery

andoffline

pick-up

points

24

17%O2O

FMCG

Sales

Incrementality

4typesofO2OplatformsandmajorplayersSwitching

to

PL

Private

Label

is

not

always

about

being

cheaper.

Development

of

O2O,

premiumization

and

new

categories/innovations

help

to

accelerate

Private

Label

growth

in

Chinese

Mainland.

Chinese

Mainland

–

Take

Home

FMCG

52

w/e

Trended

Private

Label

Spend

Growth

and

Price

IndexFOOD

FOR

THOUGHTFelicia

Julian,Marketing

Director

at

Frisian

Flag

IndonesiaBrands

need

to

create

the

rightbalance

between

value

and

price.Because

affordable

not

alwaysmean

‘economical’,

yet

the

ability

tojustify

the

value

it

offers

with

its

price.25ROLLSPASTRYPACKAGEJUICELIQUIDMILKYOGURTOILSOYOILTISSUESWASHDISHWASHFOODH&S&SPICE)Spend

Growth

–

FY

2021

v.

2020CHINESEMAINLAND

WATER130%

80%

30%

-20%

-70%180%-100%-50%0%50%100%150%200%250%300%350%400%Fast

growing

PL

categoriesBubble:

FY2021

Penetration

%Spend

Growth

–

FY

2020

v.

2019

26Switching

to

PL

Private

Label

is

now

expanding

beyond

personal

and

home

care

categories.

Chinese

Mainland

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Private

Label

Spend

GrowthHurteachotherEconomyPLintroductionsrarelyhurtbrandsOnlytopbrandcanhurtPLStandard&PremiumPLintroductionshurtotherPLImpact

onBrandsImpact

onPrivate

LabelsUnderstanding

innovations

and

their

impact27Brand

innovationsPrivate

Labels

innovationsx

1000000012

w/e

2019/12/2912

w/e

2020/01/2612

w/e

2020/02/2312

w/e

2020/03/2212

w/e

2020/04/1912

w/e

2020/05/1712

w/e

2020/06/1412

w/e

2020/07/1212

w/e

2020/08/1612

w/e

2020/09/1312

w/e

2020/10/1112

w/e

2020/11/0812

w/e

2020/12/0612

w/e

2021/01/0312

w/e

2021/01/3112

w/e

2021/02/2812

w/e

2021/03/2812

w/e

2021/04/2512

w/e

2021/05/2312

w/e

2021/06/2012

w/e

2021/07/1812

w/e

2021/08/1512

w/e

2021/09/1212

w/e

2021/10/1012

w/e

2021/11/0712

w/e

2021/12/0512

w/e

2022/01/024

w/e

2019/01/274

w/e

2019/02/244

w/e

2019/03/244

w/e

2019/04/214

w/e

2019/05/194

w/e

2019/06/164

w/e

2019/07/144

w/e

2019/08/114

w/e

2019/09/084

w/e

2019/10/064

w/e

2019/11/034

w/e

2019/12/014

w/e

2019/12/294

w/e

2020/01/264

w/e

2020/02/234

w/e

2020/03/224

w/e

2020/04/194

w/e

2020/05/174

w/e

2020/06/144

w/e

2020/07/124

w/e

2020/08/164

w/e

2020/09/134

w/e

2020/10/114

w/e

2020/11/084

w/e

2020/12/064

w/e

2021/01/034

w/e

2021/01/314

w/e

2021/02/284

w/e

2021/03/284

w/e

2021/04/254

w/e

2021/05/234

w/e

2021/06/204

w/e

2021/07/184

w/e

2021/08/154

w/e

2021/09/124

w/e

2021/10/104

w/e

2021/11/074

w/e

2021/12/054

w/e

2022/01/02x

1000000028EC

Emerging

SEA

–

Take

Home

FMCG4

w/e

Trended

EcommercePenetrationASIA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

12

w/e

Trended

Ecommerce

Spend

(USD)10-4030206050400200

-1,4001,2001,000

800

6002,0001,8001,600NASEAEC

Emerging

SEA

(MY,

VN

U,

TH)EC

Developing

SEA

(ID,

VN

R,

PH)5015102520Vietnam

(U)Pen.

MalaysiaThailandSwitch

channels

Early

sign

of

Ecommerce

slowing

down

in

SEA.

As

shopper

mobility

increases,

Ecommerce

offers

will

need

to

be

differentiated

in

order

to

drive

incremental

reach.

For

North

Asia

markets

where

Ecommerce

is

more

established

and

routinized,

the

return

back

to

offline

will

depend

on

category.x

1000000012

w/e

2019/12/2912

w/e

2020/01/2612

w/e

2020/02/2312

w/e

2020/03/2212

w/e

2020/04/1912

w/e

2020/05/1712

w/e

2020/06/1412

w/e

2020/07/1212

w/e

2020/08/1612

w/e

2020/09/1312

w/e

2020/10/1112

w/e

2020/11/0812

w/e

2020/12/0612

w/e

2021/01/0312

w/e

2021/01/3112

w/e

2021/02/2812

w/e

2021/03/2812

w/e

2021/04/2512

w/e

2021/05/2312

w/e

2021/06/2012

w/e

2021/07/1812

w/e

2021/08/1512

w/e

2021/09/1212

w/e

2021/10/1012

w/e

2021/11/0712

w/e

2021/12/0512

w/e

2022/01/02x

1000000012

w/e

2019/12/2912

w/e

2020/01/2612

w/e

2020/02/2312

w/e

2020/03/2212

w/e

2020/04/1912

w/e

2020/05/1712

w/e

2020/06/1412

w/e

2020/07/1212

w/e

2020/08/1612

w/e

2020/09/1312

w/e

2020/10/1112

w/e

2020/11/0812

w/e

2020/12/0612

w/e

2021/01/0312

w/e

2021/01/3112

w/e

2021/02/2812

w/e

2021/03/2812

w/e

2021/04/2512

w/e

2021/05/2312

w/e

2021/06/2012

w/e

2021/07/1812

w/e

2021/08/1512

w/e

2021/09/1212

w/e

2021/10/1012

w/e

2021/11/0712

w/e

2021/12/0512

w/e

2022/01/0229200

-SEA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

12

w/e

Trended

Proximity

Spend

(USD)

1,400

1,20010

01,000

40

800

30

600

20

400SEA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

12

w/e

Trended

Hypers

+

Supers

Occasions

60

50Switch

channels

Shoppers

likely

to

continue

value

Proximity

channels

for

convenience

and

cheaper

prices;

whilst

trips

in

Hypers

Supers

are

recovering

slow,

therefore

the

right

pricing

and

promotion

mechanisms

will

be

important

to

drive

more

traffic

in

MT.30FOOD

FOR

THOUGHTKyle

ArtzVice

President

of

Strategy,

Greater

Chinese

Mainland

&

MongoliaOperating

Unit,

The

Coca-Cola

CompanyWe

need

to

think

differently

abouthow

we

balance

our

investmentsacross

channels

and

across

theportfolio.31FOOD

FOR

THOUGHTIn

terms

of

channel

shift,

online

shopping

which

hasgained

significant

penetration

in

the

past

two

years

willcontinue

to

play

a

prominent

role

in

driving

FMCGgrowth.

This

growing

visibility

and

convenience

ofthe

online

vs.

in-store

value

proposition,

haspushed

the

in-store

channels

to

become

morecompetitive

in

terms

of

pricing/promo

to

increasestore

traffic

and

footfalls.Alpana

Titus

,Vice

President

for

Foods

&

Refreshment

at

Unilever

SEAT37%36%23%28%19%6%4%3%40%37%25%23%19%5%5%2%TaiwanKoreaChinese

Mainland

Pen.

MalaysiaThailandVietnam

(U)IndonesiaPhilippines20192020202132+5%+3.6%+5.2%-2.5%+1.0%+2.3%+9.5%-16.3%Promotion

Spend

CAGR

FY2019

-

FY2021Increase/Reduce

Promotional

reliance

Promotions

recovery

mainly

driven

by

Ecommerce,

except

in

Malaysia

where

it’s

highly

Modern

Trade

skewed.

Shoppers

are

also

expected

to

seek

out

for

more

value

when

they

are

under

pressure

with

prices

increase.

ASIA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

%

Promotion

Contribution

and

CAGRofgrowing71%havemorespendonpromotionof72%tripshavemoreonPromotion

Occasions

Growth

%Promotion

Spend

Growth

%KOREA806040200-20-40-60-80-60-50-40-30-20-10010203040Total

Occasions

Growth

%33South

Korea

–

Take

Home

FMCG

in

Modern

TradeCategory

Occasions

Growth

v.

Occasions

Growth

on

PromotionSouth

Korea

–

Take

Home

FMCG

in

Modern

TradeCategory

Spend

Growth

v.

Spend

Growth

on

Promotion

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80-60-40-200204060Total

Spend

Growth

%Increase/Reduce

Promotional

reliance

Promotions

help

to

generate

more

spend

and

trips

hence

how

to

drive

it

effectively

will

be

key.PEN.

MALAYSIA3418.828.025.835.281.272.074.264.80.020.010.040.030.050.070.060.090.080.0Growth

in

2020

&

2021Decline

in

2020

&

Growth

in

2021Growth

in

2020

&

Decline

in

2021Decline

in

2020

&

2021

100.0On

Promotion

%24.4%Total

FMCG

Promotion

%Off

Promotion

%

%

Categoriesincreasingvolume

onpromotion41%57%14%4%Increase/Reduce

Promotional

reliance

Promotions

will

need

to

play

a

different

role

by

categories

and

their

respective

growth

trajectories.

Important

to

ensure

promotions

are

delivering

incrementality.

Peninsular

Malaysia

–

%

Take

Home

FMCG

in

Modern

TradeFOOD

FOR

THOUGHTNirupama

Kannan

,Head

of

Category

Leadership,

Mars

Wrigley

AsiaFocusing

only

on

Quality

promotions

thatdrives

mutual

benefits

for

retailers,manufacturers

and

shoppers

will

be

acritical

unlocker

of

value

for

the

category35INCREMENTALDRAG

Driving

growth

by

maximizing

Incremental

and

minimizing

Drag

effects

of

Promotions.Understand

the

roles

ofPromotion

for

your

categoryand

shoppers

(How

promosensitive

and

which

cohorts/

channels

are

driving

that?)Leveraging

promotion

leversto

drive

incremental

growth(depth

of

discount,

length

ofpromotion,

mechanics,

etc.)36Extra

tripsExpansionStealCannibalizeDisplaceSubsidize37Shoppers

will

react

in

different

ways

in

order

to

cope

with

prices

increase.

Shopper

behaviour

of

a

category/sector

in

times

of

uncertaintyRepeat

buyer

behaviourBuy

less/

more

volumeSwitch

channelsBuy

cheaper

productsIncrease/

reduceoverall

category

volume

bought

Increase/

reducerepertoire

of

segment

Increase/ReducePromotional

relianceSwitching

brands,

non

branded,

PL

Product

Mix(sectors,

pack

sizes)New/

Lost

Buyers

Drop

or

enter

acategory38How

exposed

amI

to

Pressuredshoppers8.312.71.01.11.11.11.91.82.32.62.42.83.63.96.56.89.212.1

11.613.7IndonesiaIndiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam

(R)Vietnam

(U)

Pen.

MalaysiaKoreaChinese

MainlandTaiwanFY2020FY2021

Greater

risks

of

inflation

in

markets

with

larger

composition

of

low

income

households,

who

would

not

have

much

capacity

to

increase

spending

in

lieu

of

price

increase.ASIA

–

Take

Home

FMCG

Cash

Outlay

(USD)

of

Low

Income

Households3934%51%87%%

Low

IncomePopulation40FOOD

FOR

THOUGHTKyle

ArtzVice

President

of

Strategy,

Greater

Chinese

Mainland

&

MongoliaOperating

Unit,

The

Coca-Cola

CompanyWe

continue

to

have

plenty

ofopportunity

in

mix-driven

revenuegrowth.

It

remains

a

key

pillar

ofour

growth

strategy.PHILIPPINES41In

pressured

times,

lower

SEC

households

are

rationalizing

spend

by

cutting

backcategory

repertoires.

Ensuring

category

relevance

by

addressing

affordability

willbe

ke