銀行角度看4月社融：企業(yè)需求是核心因素

請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分21-1022-1021-1022-10分析師戴志鋒qcomcn分析師鄧美君comcn基本基本狀況21210,611,7916,852,907行業(yè)總市值(百萬元)業(yè)流通市值(百萬元)行業(yè)-市行業(yè)-市場走勢對(duì)比-10%銀行滬深300相關(guān)報(bào)相關(guān)報(bào)告22A23E24E25E22A23E024E25E買入1投資要點(diǎn)核心觀點(diǎn):今年政策更早更落地發(fā)力，一季度的基建和國有等需求旺盛，以推動(dòng)市場信心恢復(fù)和上升。下半年需求的持續(xù)性，則需要觀察居民和企業(yè)的信心。一比少減1210億，4月表內(nèi)貼現(xiàn)增加、表外未貼現(xiàn)規(guī)模下降。信托和委托貸款延續(xù)去年利率在相對(duì)高位，企業(yè)債券融資意愿邊際減弱；另低利率的貸款對(duì)債券融資也有一平。-2-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告M能與居民和企業(yè)預(yù)期存款利率下降轉(zhuǎn)而配臵了較多理M減少所致。4月是繳稅月份、企業(yè)存款少增；個(gè)人預(yù)計(jì)是部分轉(zhuǎn)向理財(cái)和保險(xiǎn)。4比。-3-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告 M2及M1同比增速(%) -11- --4-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告持不變。新增社融(億)比去年同期增加(億)同比增速2021/1/312021/2/282021/3/31-18,0762021/4/30-12,4572021/5/31-12,3442021/6/302021/7/31-6,1762021/8/31-5,9602021/9/30-5,6672021/10/312021/11/302021/12/312022/1/312022/2/28-5,0732022/3/315652022/4/30-9,0992022/5/312022/6/302022/7/31-3,1562022/8/31-5,2712022/9/302022/10/31-7,0352022/11/30-6,1092022/12/31-10,5822023/1/31-1,8932023/2/282023/3/31資在低基數(shù)背景今年小幅維持正增；表外融資中新增未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票信托、委托類非標(biāo)融資延續(xù)溫和增長態(tài)勢，與去年相比變化不大；政府債同比有一定多增，企業(yè)債在高利率成本和低利率貸款的臵換下同比少貸款、未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票分別同比多增729億，1210億。行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告-5-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分圖表2：新增社融較2022年同期增加情況(億元)社融人民幣貸款委托貸款信托貸款未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票債券融資股票融資政府債券Abs核銷2021/1/311,3493,258117-1,2743,499-50382-5,176-5061142021/2/288,5066,211256-3964,600-2,538244-8073721072021/3/31-18,076-2,879546-1,770-5,114-6,124585-3,213638-372021/4/30-12,457-3,399366-1,351-2,729-5,613499382376-42021/5/31-12,344-1,208-135-958-1,762-3,956364-4,661335-352021/6/302,3364,1530-194-2,41124141858-8-2652021/7/31-6,176-1,8301-204-1,186733-277-3,639723-4792021/8/31-5,960-1,488592-1,046-1,314990196-4,050-40-1172021/9/30-5,667-1,416295-939-1,489-179-369-2,050202-2852021/10/312,2471,0891-186203-2-811,236-333-1912021/11/304,628-2,28866-8032423,1665234,158-528-912021/12/316,490-1,108143677971,7319494,548-559-5982022/1/319,8753,806337162-1691,9214483,589-187-762022/2/28-5,073-4,32926185-4,8672,254-1081,705124-1132022/3/3112,8034,7801491,5322,583-571753,943-5795042022/4/30-9,099-9,138211713-40528352173-390282022/5/318,8673,936276676-1421,417-4253,881-4381092022/6/3014,8767,358942181,287-1,614-3678,7080-192022/7/31-3,156-4,3032401,173-428-2,3204992,178-3387522022/8/31-5,2716311,5788903,359-3,227-227-6,693-264992022/9/306,3727,9311,5301,907118-804250-2,533-83472022/10/31-7,035-3,3216431,000-1,270159-58-3,3767-222022/11/30-6,109-1,573-1231,825573-3,410-506-1,638-975432022/12/31-10,5824,0043143,789867-4,876-590-8,893-770-1,3422023/1/31-1,8937,326156618-1,770-4,290-475-1,886-1181082023/2/2819,3909,100-38174,15834-145,416-2261102023/3/317,2357,211672141,503-462-344-1,052002023/4/302,72972957341,210-809-17363600際走弱。企業(yè)端來看，1季度基建沖量，但受內(nèi)外需影響、實(shí)體擴(kuò)產(chǎn)并4月新增人民幣的貸款4431億，較往年同期多增729億元。2、表外信行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告新增票據(jù)融資新增未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票合計(jì)新增票據(jù)+未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票占比新增社融新增企業(yè)短貸新增企業(yè)短貸占比社融2021/1/31-1,4054,9023,4975,75511.1%2021/2/28-1,855639-1,216-7.1%2,49714.5%2021/3/31-1,525-2,296-3,821-11.3%3,74811.1%2021/4/302,711-2,1525590%-2,147-11.6%2021/5/311,538-9266121%-644-3.3%2021/6/302,747-2212,5263,091%2021/7/311,771-2,316-545-5.1%-2,577-24.0%2021/8/312,8131272,940%-1,149-3.8%2021/9/301,353141,3674.7%1,8262021/10/311,160-886274-288-1.8%2021/11/301,605-3831,2224.7%4102021/12/314,087-1,4192,66811.3%-1,054-4.5%2022/1/311,7884,7336,52110.6%10,10016.4%2022/2/283,052-4,228-1,176-9.7%4,11133.8%2022/3/313,1872873,4748,08917.4%2022/4/305,148-2,5572,59127.4%-1,948-20.6%2022/5/317,129-1,0686,06121.3%2,642%2022/6/307961,0661,8626%6,90613.3%2022/7/313,136-2,744392-3,546-46.7%2022/8/311,5913,4865,07720.6%-121-0.5%2022/9/30-827132-695-2.0%6,56718.6%2022/10/311,905-2,156-251-2.7%-1,843-20.2%2022/11/301,5491901,739%-241-1.2%2022/12/311,146-5525944.5%-416-3.2%2023/1/31-4,1272,963-1,164-1.9%15,10025.2%2023/2/28-989-70-1,059-3.4%5,78518.3%2023/3/31-4,6871,790-2,897-5.4%10,81520.1%2023/4/301,281,280--1,347-67--0.5%-1,099--9.0%2年同期的低基數(shù)下同比多增636金市場利率在相對(duì)高位，企業(yè)債券融資意愿邊際減弱；另低同比少增809億元。3、隨著與全面注冊(cè)制相配的創(chuàng)業(yè)板發(fā)行新規(guī)的出-6-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分-7-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告新增信貸表外融資直接融資政府債abs核銷2021/1/3175.7%4.7%-0.1%2021/2/2880.5%-2.3%1.9%-1.0%2021/3/3182.3%-12.2%3.6%2021/4/3067.7%-19.9%23.9%20.1%2021/5/3173.3%-13.5%-1.8%34.3%2021/6/3064.5%-4.7%3.2%20.3%-0.1%4.8%2021/7/3177.3%-37.6%37.5%6.9%-0.2%2021/8/3143.7%-3.5%20.5%32.6%2021/9/3061.1%-7.3%27.8%2021/10/3147.7%-13.1%9.2%38.1%-0.9%2021/11/3049.6%-9.8%20.4%31.4%2021/12/3141.0%-27.0%7.9%49.3%1.5%2022/1/3169.7%1.8%-0.3%2022/2/2878.6%-41.5%34.5%22.4%-0.4%2022/3/3169.9%0.1%5.2%-0.2%2022/4/3031.1%-33.5%50.9%41.3%-2.3%2022/5/3163.4%-6.4%37.3%-0.7%2022/6/3058.3%-0.3%31.2%2022/7/3138.8%-40.2%29.1%52.6%-4.7%3.4%2022/8/3150.8%9.4%0.9%2.4%2022/9/3070.5%4.1%5.6%-0.5%4.3%2022/10/3140.6%-19.1%35.1%30.5%-1.4%2022/11/3054.3%-1.3%32.8%-1.2%2022/12/3196.9%-10.8%-9.3%21.2%-1.2%0.6%2023/1/3182.2%4.2%-0.6%2023/2/2858.6%-0.3%3.4%25.8%-0.9%2023/3/3174.2%1.2%2023/4/3033.7%-9.4%31.4%37.3%0.0%0.0%環(huán)比持平。行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告000,000000104071001040710010407100104071001040710010104071001040710010407100104071001040710010407100104新增人民幣貸款貸款余額同比增速(右軸)的主力，而居民信貸投放較弱。新增企業(yè)中長貸、企業(yè)短貸和票據(jù)分別較大，填補(bǔ)了票據(jù)同比下降較多的空缺，帶動(dòng)貸款規(guī)模整體實(shí)現(xiàn)正增，主要是基建發(fā)力，以及房地產(chǎn)支持力度邊際有所提升。圖表6：新增貸款同比增加(億元)人民幣貸款居民企業(yè)中長期短期居民短期居民中長期企業(yè)短期企業(yè)中長期票據(jù)融資非銀機(jī)構(gòu)2021/1/312,4006,359-3,1005,7572,4834,4271,957-1,9443,800-52/284,5435,55470010,585-2,2391,8133,742-4,0526,843-2,489-1,6062021/3/31-1,2001,614-4,5005,158-4,906981,501-5,0043,657-3,6001,6782021/4/30-2,300-1,386-2,0111,587-4,000-1,915529-2,0851,058-1,1991,1282021/5/31200-811-402987-2,430-575-236-1,8551,223-481,2842021/6/303,100-1,1305,313-174-860100-1,193-9601,0194,851-1,1162021/7/31905-3,5191,689-3,124-1,581-1,425-2,093-156-1,0312,7922,0442021/8/31-600-2,6601,166-3,349-2,544-1,348-1,312-1,196-2,0374,4897932021/9/30-2,400-1,721345-5,427377-175-1,695552-3,7323,985-6792021/10/311,364316766-1,761703154162549-1,9232,2842012021/11/30-1,600-197-2,133-1,698-1,293-969772-324-2,4708016782021/12/31-1,300-1,919667-2,9411,058-985-8342,043-2,107746-1212022/1/313,973-4,2708,100-1,4242,073-2,272-2,0244,3456003,1935752022/2/28-1,428-4,790400-10,5201,394-220-4,5721,614-5,9484,9071,6102022/3/314,103-3,9408,800-2,3562,947-1,394-2,5044,3411484,712-1842022/4/30-8,161-7,453-1,768-9,185-2,022-2,221-5,232199-3,9532,437-1532022/5/313,900-3,3447,243-4,3563,32034-3,3793,286-9775,591-1632022/6/306,900-2037,5255,1414,597782-9893,8156,130-1,9512502022/7/31-4,042-2,842-1,457-3,966-1,323-354-2,488-969-1,4781,365-2982022/8/31300-1,1751,7875371,454426-1,6011,0282,138-1,2222562022/9/308,100-1,3839,3705,3294,560-181-1,2114,7416,540-2,180-502022/10/31-2,110-4,8271,525-1,456-2,493-938-3,889-1,5552,4337455572022/11/30-600-4,7103,158232-1,643-992-3,718-6513,950-562652022/12/312,700-1,9636,0177,024368-270-1,6936388,717-2,941-5642023/1/319,227-5,85813,2008,8074,335-665-5,1935,00014,000-5,9158322023/2/285,9285,4503,7007,3705,8034,1291,3221,6746,048-4,041-1,6172023/3/317,4974,9082,2009,8654,9722,2462,6132,7267,252-7,874752023/4/30649-2411,0553,1751,450601-8428494,017-3,868755-8-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分-9-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告元)剔除非銀的新增貸款剔除非銀和票據(jù)的新增貸款剔除非銀比去年剔除非銀和票據(jù)比去年同期2021/1/312021/2/282021/3/31-2,87822021/4/30-3,428-2,2292021/5/31-1,084-1,0362021/6/30-6352021/7/31-1,139-3,9312021/8/31-1,393-5,8822021/9/30-1,721-5,7062021/10/31-1,1212021/11/30-2,278-3,0792021/12/31-1,179-1,9252022/1/31,19052022/2/28-3,038-7,9452022/3/31-4252022/4/30-8,008-10,4452022/5/31-1,5282022/6/302022/7/31-3,744-5,1092022/8/3142022/9/302022/10/31-2,667-3,4122022/11/30-865-8092022/12/312023/1/31,5852023/2/282023/3/31,966同業(yè)拆借，不穩(wěn)定性較大，因而剔除非銀來看票據(jù)對(duì)新增信貸的貢獻(xiàn)別款情況：基建繼續(xù)托底，房開貸投放邊際增加；票據(jù)有一定沖量；實(shí)體行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告居民企業(yè)中長期短期居民短期居民中長期企業(yè)短期企業(yè)中長期票據(jù)融資非銀機(jī)構(gòu)2021/1/3135.5%71.2%83.4%25.2%26.4%%7.0%-3.9%-5.6%2021/2/28%88.2%111.1%-1.4%-19.8%30.2%%80.9%-13.6%2021/3/3142.0%8.6%71.6%32.9%%22.9%%48.7%-5.6%-1.0%2021/4/3035.9%1.4%78.4%-12.1%33.5%-14.6%44.9%%%2021/5/3141.5%3.7%73.0%%29.5%-4.3%43.5%%2%2021/6/3041.0%8.8%3.8%31.1%%24.3%%39.5%%-9.0%2021/7/3137.5%40.0%82.3%-23.0%36.7%-23.8%45.6%%%2021/8/3147.2%7.1%77.7%%34.9%-9.4%42.7%23.1%-5.6%2021/9/3047.5%9.1%70.0%30.4%%28.1%%41.9%-5.3%2021/10/316.2%37.5%77.6%1.1%-3.5%26.5%%2021/11/307.8%44.7%72.7%%%45.8%26.9%%-2.9%2021/12/3132.9%8.6%1.5%-7.9%31.5%-9.3%30.0%36.2%9%2022/1/3121.2%84.5%71.5%27.9%%25.4%2.8%5%-3.6%2022/2/28-27.7%101.9%37.7%-23.9%-3.8%33.8%41.5%25.1%%2022/3/3124.0%79.0%4.7%38.0%%%25.8%42.8%%-1.4%2022/4/30-33.2%88.5%35.8%-58.2%-28.4%-4.8%-29.8%40.6%78.7%21.1%2022/5/31%81.0%34.9%23.7%%29.4%37.7%2022/6/3030.2%78.7%6.4%39.8%%%24.6%1.6%-5.9%2022/7/31%42.4%72.8%-56.2%-4.0%21.9%-52.2%0.9%46.2%21.7%2022/8/3136.6%70.0%80.1%%%21.3%-1.0%8.8%%-3.4%2022/9/3026.3%77.6%8.6%38.9%%%26.6%4.6%-3.3%-3.8%2022/10/31-2.9%75.2%80.5%-38.3%-8.3%-30.0%75.1%31.0%%2022/11/3021.7%73.0%78.3%3%%-2.0%0.9%%-0.8%2022/12/31%90.3%99.8%-3.8%-0.8%%-3.0%86.5%-0.1%2023/1/3195.5%76.0%31.5%6%30.8%71.4%-8.4%-1.2%2023/2/28%89.0%6.1%38.7%8%32.0%1.3%-5.5%2023/3/3132.0%9.4%9.5%43.5%%%27.8%3.2%-12.0%-1.0%2023/4/30-33.5%95.1%76.7%-32.7%-17.5%-16.1%-15.3%92.8%17.8%29.7%6萬平方米，較三月份有比較明顯01234567891011120456789101112M-10-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分-11-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分0105090105090105090105090105090105090101050901050901050901050901050901050901行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告圖表11：M2及M1同比增速(%)0000M2與M1增速差(%)0000.00.00同比大幅減少所致。4月是繳稅月份、企業(yè)存款少增；個(gè)人預(yù)計(jì)是部分由于去年四月由于疫情防控因此財(cái)政支出較大導(dǎo)致基數(shù)較低所致。非銀少0000,0000001040104071004071001040710010407100110010407100104新增人民幣存款存款余額同比增速(右軸)00-12-請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分行業(yè)點(diǎn)評(píng)報(bào)告圖表14：新增存款較2022年同期增加(億元)人民幣存款居民企業(yè)財(cái)政存款非銀2021/1/316,900-27,60025,5847,698-6,8212021/2/281,30033,800-27,040-8,68711,1762021/3/31-5,300-4,100-14,5702,49911,0582021/4/30-19,952-7,704-15,2565,248-3,3032021/5/312,500-3,747-9,294-3,84314,5662021/6/309,60055110,2762,1002,6702021/7/31-12,103-6,4052,4001,136-8,4242021/8/31-5,700-635-1,883-3,6153,6052021/9/307,5001,240-4,9173,2862,5082021/10/3111,620-2,5312,9212,0509,4822021/11/30-9,600974968-5,424-8,7732021/12/3113,6932,1572,711-7621,7562022/1/312,50039,300-23,4