能源轉(zhuǎn)型中的巴西石化行業(yè)-BAZILIAN SCENARIO The Importance of Exploration and Production in the Energy Transition

BAZILIANSCENARIO

TheImportanceofExplorationand

ProductionintheEnergyTransition

Ronanávila

DeputySuperintendent,GeologicalandEconomicAssessmentSuperintendency[ANP-SAG]Tuesday,9May2023

NOTICE

?TheANP′sinstitutionalpresentationisbasedoncurrentandreliableinformation,butnorepresentationorwarrantyismadeastoitsaccuratenessandcompleteness,anditshouldnotberelieduponassuch.

?Projectionsandestimatedvaluesareincludedwithoutanyguaranteeastotheirfuturerealization.

?Forward-lookingdata,information,projectionsandopinionsexpressedduringthepresentationaresubjecttochangewithoutpriornotice.

?TheANPisnotresponsibleforformulatingpublicpolicy,noristheinformationcontainedhereinofanypoliticalnature.

Agenda

Brazil′sEnergyMix

WorldConsumptionandFossilFuelDemands

GHG(FocusedonCO2)

BrazilE&POverview

TheImportanceofE&PintheEnergyTransition

FinalRemarks

Percapitaenergyfromfossilfuels,nuclearandrenewables,2021

OurWorldinDatabasedonBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,OurWorldinD/energy-mix.CCBY

%OFFOSSILINTHEENERGYMIX

BRAZIL54%

EPE2022;ResenhaEnergéticaBrasileira2022,anobase2021,pg.24,

.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/spe/publicacoes/resenha-energetica-brasileira/resenhas/resenha-energetica-2022.pdf/view

PercentageofFossilsintheBrazilianEnergyMix

WORLD80,3%

OCDE77,8%

“WorldFossilfuelsaccountedfor82%ofprimaryenergyuselastyear,downfrom83%in2019and85%fiveyearsago.”

BP2023;StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,Energydevelopments2021,

StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy|Energyeconomics|Home()

WORLD

OCDE

52,7%

62,7

%

19,7%

PercentageofFossilsintheBrazilianElectricMix

%OFFOSSILINTHEELETRIC*1MIX

*1Theelectricalispartoftheenergymix

BRAZIL

EPE2022;ResenhaEnergéticaBrasileira2022,anobase2021,pg.25,

.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/spe/publicacoes/resenha-energetica-brasileira/resenhas/resenha-energetica-2022.pdf/view

PercentageofBioenergyintheBrazilianTransport

%OFBIOENERGIESINTRANSPORT

OTHERS1,30%

BRAZIL22,60%

OCDE5,10%

EPE2022;ResenhaEnergéticaBrasileira2022,anobase2021,pg.30,

.br/mme/pt-br/assuntos/secretarias/spe/publicacoes/resenha-energetica-brasileira/resenhas/resenha-energetica-2022.pdf/view

cleanestonaglobalscale.

Currently,Brazil'senergymixisundoubtedlyoneofthe

Agenda

Brazil′sEnergyMix

WorldConsumptionandFossilFuelDemands

GHG(FocusedonCO2)

TheImportanceofE&PintheEnergyTransition

BrazilE&POverview

FinalRemarks

WorldConsumption–2021

SharesofGlobalPrimaryEnergy

OIL

COAL

GAS

HYDROELETRICITY

NUCLEARENERGY

RENEWABLES

%

%SharesofGlobalPrimaryEnergy

2023BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2022,71stEditions,pg.12;

StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2022()

-edited

WorldConsumption–2021

WorldConsumption(Exajoules)

%SharesofGlobalPrimaryEnergy

2023BPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2022,71stEditions,pg.12;

StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy2022()

-edited

Globalprimaryenergyconsumptionbyenergysource,2010-2050

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,

InternationalEnergyOutlook2021

Referencecase

Note:Petroleumandotherliquidsincludesbiofuels

/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49876

IEA2023;WorldEnergyOutlook2022,

/reports/world-energy-outlook-2022/executive-summary

,

IEA.Licence:CCBY4.0

WorldFossilFuelDemandintheStatedPoliciesScenario,1900-2050

20102020203020402050

hiStory

projection

20

25

15

10

5

0

Worldnetelectricitygenerationbyfuel,

1900-2050

WorIdneteIectricitygenerationbyfueI,IEO2019Referencecase(2010-2050)

triIIionkiIowatthourS

triIIionkiIowatthourS

45

hiStory

projection

40

35

49%

soIar

renewabIes

30

46%

40%

25

31%

20

21%

wind

other

hydro

naturaIgas

15

10

coaI

5

nucIear

0

Iiquids

20102020203020402050

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,

InternationalEnergyOutlook2019

/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

25

hiStoryprojection

hiStoryprojection

20

soIar

49%renewabIes

46%

15

31%40%

21%naturaIgas10

coaI5

wind

other

hydro

5

nucIear

0Iiquids0

WORLD

OCDE

BRAZIL

19,7%

52,7%

62,7%

Worldnetelectricitygenerationbyfuel,1900-2050

WorIdneteIectricitygenerationbyfueI,IEO2019Referencecase(2010-2050)

triIIionkiIowatthourStriIIionkiIowatthourS

2010202020302040205020102020203020402050

U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,

InternationalEnergyOutlook2019

/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42555

Actual%offossilintheeletricmix,

2021-2022

EPE2022;ResenhaEnergéticaBrasileira2022,anobase2021,pg.25

Brazil-%OfferofElectricityGenerationPower2021

RENEWABLES

>80%

Hydro

EPE2022;ResenhaEnergéticaBrasileira2022,anobase2021,pg.35

energy

Brazil's

numbers

for

clean

are

better

than

the

global

?

average

aims

to

achieve

by

2050

;

and

we

are

committed

to

continuing

this

towards

a

cleaner

future

;

Fossil

will

remain

important

in

the

energy

mix

worldwide,

even

?

during

transition

to

alternative

sources

.

Currently,

it

trajectory

the

fuels

Agenda

Brazil′sEnergyMix

WorldConsumptionandFossilFuelDemands

GHG(FocusedonCO2)

BrazilE&POverview

TheImportanceofE&PintheEnergyTransition

FinalRemarks

Milliontonnesofcarbondioxide

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

America

South&Central.

CarbonDioxideEmissionsfromEnergybyRegion

CarbonDioxideEmissionsfromEnergy

20000,0

18000,0

16000,0

14000,0

12000,0

10000,0

8000,0

6000,0

4000,0

2000,0

-

TotalNorthAmericaTotalS.&Cent.AmericaTotalEuropeTotalCISTotalMiddleEastTotalAfricaTotalAsiaPacific

BP2023;StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,CO2emissions,BPp.l.c.Copyright?1996-2023;graphbuiltfrom

/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-all-data.xlsx

Milliontonnesofcarbondioxide

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

BRAZIL

CarbonDioxideEmissionsfromEnergybyCountry(TopCountryoftheRegion)

CarbonDioxideEmissionsfromEnergy

12000,0

10000,0

8000,0

6000,0

4000,0

2000,0

-

USBrazilGermanyRussianFederationIranSouthAfricaChina

BP2023;StatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,CO2emissions,BPp.l.c.Copyright?1996-2023;graphbuiltfrom

/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/xlsx/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-all-data.xlsx

BrazilCO2LiquidEmissionsbySector,1990-2022

CO2

Inordertoavoidcostlyconsequencesfortheenergytransitionandcompetitiveness,itiscrucialtoaddressdeforestationandlanduse

changeemissionsby2040.Additionally,weneedtofindwaystoaddressemissionsfromchallengingsectorssuchasfreighttransportandindustrialprocesses.

/media/documentos/arquivos/PTE_RelatorioFinal_PT_Digital_.pdf

FugitiveEmitionsAgriculture&Livestock

IndustryEnergyLand-usechangeandforestry

?2023SEEG;Emiss?esTotais,

https://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission

,1990-2022

BrazilCO2eEmissionsbySector,1990-2022

CO2e(t)

GPW-AR6

“…Brazil’scommitmenttozerodeforestationandcallsforaction

bydevelopedcountriesduringclimateandenergyforum…”

Planalto(.br)

ThisweektheFederalSenateapprovedthebillconvertingProvisionalMeasureNo.1,151ofDecember2022,whichamendstherulesonthemanagementofPublicForests.Thetextgoestopresidentialapproval.

FugitiveEmitionsAgriculture&LivestockIndustryEnergyLand-usechangeandforestry

?2023SEEG;Emiss?esTotais,

https://plataforma.seeg.eco.br/total_emission

,1990-2022

CommonbutDifferentiated

ResponsibilitiesandRespectiveCapabilities

Meetingallnetzeropledgesontime(world)

Globalclimategoals'virtuallyimpossible'

withoutcarboncapture:IEA

/article/us-iea-carboncapture-idUSKCN26F0IB

Energy-relatedandprocessCO2emissionsbyscenario,2010-2050;

IEA.Licence:CCBY4.0

/data-and-statistics/charts/energy-related-and-process-co2-emissions-by-scenario-2010-2050

Meetingallnetzeropledgesontime(world)

It'simportanttokeepin

mindthatthereisn'ta

one-size-fits-allsolution!

Energy-relatedandprocessCO2emissionsbyscenario,2010-2050;

IEA.Licence:CCBY4.0

/data-and-statistics/charts/energy-related-and-process-co2-emissions-by-scenario-2010-2050

CCUSTONET-ZERO

Successfuldeploymentofcarboncapture,utilizationandstorage

(CCUS)reliesontheestablishmentoflegalandregulatory

frameworkstoensuretheeffectivestewardshipofCCUSactivities

andthesafeandsecurestorageofCO2

IEA2023;Capacityoflarge-scaleCO2captureprojects,currentandplannedvs.theNetZeroScenario,2020-2030

/data-and-statistics/charts/capacity-of-large-scale-co2-capture-projects-current-and-planned-vs-the-net-zero-scenario-2020-2030

,

IEA.Licence:CCBY4.0

Braziliscommittedtoachievingnet-zeroemissionsandhassignedtheParis

Agreementandreinforceditscompromisesrecently.

Agenda

Brazil′sEnergyMix

WorldConsumptionandFossilFuelDemands

GHG(FocusedonCO2)

BrazilE&POverview

TheImportanceofE&PintheEnergyTransition

FinalRemarks

E&PinBrazil

ConventionalOffshore

Onshore

Pre-Salt

01

Supermajors

MajorOperators

02

MajorOperatorsExplorationSpecialistsMatureFieldPlayers

03

SmallandMedium

Companies

/view?r=eyJrIjoiNzVmNzI1MzQtNTY1NC00ZGVhLTk5N2ItNzBkMDNhY2IxZTIxIiwidCI6IjQ0OTlmNGZmLTI0YTYtNGI0Mi1iN2VmLTEyNGFmY2FkYzkxMyJ9

EquivalentOil(bbl/d)

ProductionsOverview

Pre-Salt

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos,InvestimentosnaFasedeProdu??o

/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTEzY2U5YzItNzY0MC00NTgxLWExYjktODUwZGI0ZjJhNjIzIiwidCI6IjQ0OTlmNGZmLTI0YTYtNGI0Mi1iN2VmLTEyNGFmY2FkYzkxMyJ9

ExploratoryBlockswithCurrentContract

83EconomicGroupsinE&P(43National,40Foreign)

Onshore48,7%

MilKm2

Area

Offshore

51,3%

Offshore120

43,6%

NumberofBlocks

Onshore

155

56,4%

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos,BlocossobContrato

OngoingDiscoveryAssessmentPlans(PAD)

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos,BlocossobContrato

/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTEzY2U5YzItNzY0MC00NTgxLWExYjktODUwZGI0ZjJhNjIzIiwidCI6IjQ0OTlmNGZmLTI0YTYtNGI0Mi1iN2VmLTEyNGFmY2FkYzkxMyJ9

.br/anp/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/paineis-dinamicos-da-anp/paineis-dinamicos-sobre-exploracao-e-producao-de-petroleo-e-gas/painel-dinamico-da-previsao-de-atividades-e-investimentos-na-fase-de-exploracao

InvestmentsinExploratoryWorkProgram–PAD&PEM

(Res.ANP876)

Theoilandgassectorisoneofthepillarsof

theBrazilianeconomy,anddrillwellsalso

contributetoextendingreserves,generating

jobs,andboostingtechnologicaldevelopment.

33wells

+

activities

18wells

+

activities

36wells

+

activities

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos,InvestimentosnaFasedeExplora??o

2023

Contracts–SantosandCamposBasin

2016

BlockBlock-OPPFieldPre-SaltPolygon

2023

Contracts–ParnaibaBasin

2010

Round9Round13Round14OPCFieldElectricaltransmissionline

Contracts–PotiguarOnshoreBasin

2019

2023

Round7Round11Round13Round14OPCField

OpenAcreage–PermanentOffer(OPC)

OnOffer2023OnStudy

steadilygrowing

itshydrocarbon

Brazilhasbeen

production

spreading

and

investmentsthroughoutthecountry,openingexploratoryareasforfair

competition.

Agenda

Brazil′sEnergyMix

WorldConsumptionandFossilFuelDemands

GHG(FocusedonCO2)

BrazilE&POverview

TheImportanceofE&PintheEnergyTransition

FinalRemarks

IndustryPaper-PetrochemicalsIndustry-WalkWaterTalentAdvisors

Petrochemical

PetrochemicalManufacturingProcess

BILLIONOFREAIS(R$)

2023

2027

100,00

90,00

80,00

70,00

60,00

50,00

40,00

30,00

20,00

10,00

0,00

BrazilianRoyatiesEstimatives

202420252026

FederalStatesCounties

GovernmentTakes

BILLIONOFREAIS(R$)

100,00

90,00

80,00

70,00

60,00

50,00

40,00

30,00

20,00

10,00

0,00

BrazilianEspecialParticipation

2023

2027

202420252026

FederalStatesCounties

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos

/view?r=eyJrIjoiYWZhMjZmNWMtMjU4ZS00MWM4LWI3ZDAtYzgzYTE5MmI4N2I2IiwidCI6IjQ0OTlmNGZmLTI0YTYtNGI0Mi1iN2VmLTEyNGFmY2FkYzkxMyJ9

OilVolumes–2022Reserves(1P;2P;3P)

BILLIONBBL

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos,Reserves

/view?r=eyJrIjoiMjk1ZDA3YmUtZjc5ZC00NjIzLWFhY2QtMWZkODAxOGJiMGFjIiwidCI6IjQ0OTlmNGZmLTI0YTYtNGI0Mi1iN2VmLTEyNGFmY2FkYzkxMyJ9

GasVolumes–2022Reserves(1P;2P;3P)

BILLIONM3

ANP2023;PainéisDinamicos,Reserves

/view?r=eyJrIjoiMjk1ZDA3YmUtZjc5ZC00NjIzLWFhY2QtMWZkODAxOGJiMGFjIiwidCI6IjQ0OTlmNGZmLTI0YTYtNGI0Mi1iN2VmLTEyNGFmY2FkYzkxMyJ9

Projections

?TheFederalGovernment′sforecastindicatesasignificantincreaseinfutureoilproduction,to5.2millionb/din2031.Thisvolumeisconsiderablyhigherthanthe2.9millionb/daverageregisteredin2021.Naturalgasisalsoforecasttoincreasefrom134millionm3/din2021to276millionm3/d.

BrazilianOil&GasReport2021/2022,pg.8

BOR2022.pdf(.br)

Energysecurity!

Decarbonization!

ScenariosofFinalEnergyConsumptionEvolutioninBrazil,2015-2050

Expansionchallengescenario

Etagnationscenario

ExtractedfromEPE-PNE2025,pg.35

.br/sites-pt/publicacoes-dados-abertos/publicacoes/PublicacoesArquivos/publicacao-

227/topico-563/Relatorio%20Final%20do%20PNE%202050.pdf

Twopotentialscenariosfortheevolutionofenergyconsumptiontowardsitsfinalstate.

Fairandsustainableenergytransition!

INDIVIDUALS

BrazilHabitants

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

2046

2049

2052

2055

2058

IBGE(2022)reportedthatBrazil'spopulationis

around215millionpeopleandisexpectedtogrowby

8%before2050.Thisprojectionsuggestsanincrease

of18million