世界銀行-太平洋海運(yùn)的藍(lán)色轉(zhuǎn)型：全面的區(qū)域運(yùn)輸（英）

ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport1

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ABlueTransformation

forPacificMaritimeTransport

OVERARCHINGREGIONALREPORT

?2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNWWashington

DC20433

Telephone:202-473-1000

Internet:

ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracy,completeness,orcurrencyofthedataincludedinthisworkanddoesnotassumeresponsibilityforanyerrors,omissions,ordiscrepanciesintheinformation,orliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforfailuretousetheinformation,methods,processes,orconclusionssetforth.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.

NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconstruedorconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespecificallyreserved.

RightsandPermissions

Thematerialinthisworkissubjecttocopyright.BecauseTheWorldBankencouragesdisseminationofitsknowledge,thisworkmaybereproduced,inwholeorinpart,fornoncommercialpurposesaslongasfullattributiontothisworkisgiven.

Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2023.ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport.WorldBank,Washington,DC.?WorldBank.

ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport3

CONTENTS

3

FIGURES

5

TABLES

5

FOREWORD/ACKNOWLEDGMENTS6

EXECUTIVESUMMARY7

Contents

WhythePacificisaSpecialCase9

ChapterSummaries11

ABBREVIATIONS

20

PACIFICPEOPLESANDTHESEA

23

Overview24

FromCanoestoContainers:A(very)BriefMaritimeHistory24

TheInfluenceofGeographyonPacificEconomies25

TrendsandDriversforMaritimeTransportinthePIC1228

INTERNATIONALSHIPPING

30

Overview31

InternationalFreightPatterns—ImportsandExports31

TradebetweenPacificIslandcountries34

ShippingLines34

ShippingRoutes35

ShippingNetworkArrangements36

ShipSizeandConfiguration37

ServiceLevelsandPricing39

KeyAreasforAttention41

GATEWAYPORTS43

42

Overview43

TheRoleOfGatewayPorts43

GatewayPortSizeAndOperations44

GreenPorts45

PortInfrastructureDevelopment47

AssetManagement51

PortGovernanceAndManagement52

FinancialSustainabilityOfPorts53

KeyAreasForAttention54

DOMESTICMARITIMETRANSPORT56

Overview57

TheRoleandCharacterofDomesticShipping57

ServiceLevelsandFinancialViability58

Safety61

DomesticVessels62

Fueluseandgreenhousegasemissions64

DomesticMaritimeInfrastructure64

ReturntotheFuture—ASustainableWayForward66

KeyAreasforAttention67

KEYRELATEDSECTORS69

Overview70

CruiseShipTourism70

TunaFisheries73

FossilFuelImportSupplyChains77

BulkShipping79

KeyAreasforAttention81

RESILIENCEOFMARITIMETRANSPORTSYSTEMSTONATURALHAZARDS

ANDCLIMATECHANGE82

Overview83

ResilientMaritimeTransportSystemsAreImportantfortheOverall

ResilienceofPICs83

FrameworkforUnderstandingtheImpactofNaturalHazardsonMaritime

TransportSystems85

Challenges94

OpportunitiesToImproveResilience94

KeyAreasForAttention95

SECTORGOVERNANCEANDINSTITUTIONS98

Overview:TheRoleofGovernanceinthePacific’sMaritimeSector99

HowitWorksToday:TheCurrentStructureofPacificMaritimeSector

Governance99

HowEffectiveisMaritimeGovernance:AnAssessmentofCurrentPractice102

KeyAreasforAttention113

TRANSFORMINGPACIFICMARITIMETRANSPORT—WAYSFORWARD116

OverviewOfWaysForward117

Resilient,Green,AndSafeMaritimeInfrastructure117

Reliable,Affordable,Safe,AndInclusiveMaritimeServices119

GovernanceAndCapacityBuilding121

References123

Figure9

Figure10

Figure11

Figure12

Figure13

Figure14

Figure15

Figure16

Figure17

Figure18

Figure19

Figure20

Figure21

Figure22

Figure23

SatelliteImageofSuvaPortShowingMultipleFunctionsandUrbanEncroachment

FijiDomesticShippingSubsidizedandNon-SubsidizedRoutes

IndicatorsonTunaFisheriesandEconomicBenefitstoPICs

ValueofTunaImportsfromFFACountriestoMajorMarkets

ActualRenewableEnergySharevsTargetsinPIC12

FrameworkShowingMaritimeTransportAssetLosses,IncomeLosses,andWell-beingLossesTotalNaturalHazardEventsRecordedfrom1900–2020,byCountry

Multi-hazardmapsfor:(a)TropicalCycloneTracksandIntensities,1972to2022;(b)RegionalWaveHeightsinmeters(99percentile);and(c)coastalfloodingheightinmeters(50yearreturnperiod)

Multi-hazardmapsfor:(a)TsunamiHazardRupup;(b)EarthquakePeakGroundAcceleration(250yearreturnperiod);and(c)VolcanicHazardLevel(VHL).

AverageAnnualLossesfromKeyHazardEventsinPICs

PoliciesandMeasurestoReduceAsset,Income,andWell-BeingLosses

fromNaturalDisasters

KeyInternationalMaritimeConventionsandInstruments

SchematicofInstitutionalStructuresandGovernanceHierarchiesatSPCandSPREPTypicalNational-levelInstitutionalGovernanceArrangementinPICs

AFrameworkforEffectiveRegionalandNationalGovernanceforPacificIslandCountries

Tables

Table1

Table2

Table3

Table4

Table5

Table6

Table7

Table8

Table9

Smallislandsdispersedoverlargeoceanareas,dependentonimports

ShippingLinesDirectandIndirectInvestmentsinLocalCommercialActivitiesMajorInfrastructureDevelopmentNeedsandActivitiesforPacificGatewayPortsAgeofDomesticShipsinSamplePICcountries

ComparisonoftheEconomicImpactofCruiseShipPassengersvsVisitorsArrivingbyAirinFijiandVanuatu.

HazardExposureforPIC12Ports

Multi-hazardHeatMapPortExposure

MaritimeAssetDamagesandLossesfromDisastersinthePacific,2009–2018AdoptionofInternationalMaritimeInstrumentsbythePIC12

Table10Maritime-relatedRegionalPrograms,Strategies,andProjectsinthePacific

ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport

48

59

74

75

78

85

86

88

88

93

95

100

101

102

113

26

35

48

63

71

87

89

92

104

110

5

Figures

Figure1

PacificIslandsareUniquelySmallandRemote

25

Figure2

AidasproportionofGrossNationalIncomeinPacificislands

27

Figure3

TrendsAffectingMaritimeTransportinPICs

29

Figure4

TradeBalanceBetweenImportsandExportsinthePIC12Countries

32

Figure5

NetworkofScheduledShippingRoutes

36

Figure6

ConfigurationofaMulti-purposeVesselLikeThoseDeployedinthePacific

37

Figure7

AnnualNumberofPortCallsinthePIC12byShippingLine

39

Figure8

ComparisonofPICPortPerformanceAgainstGlobalPeerPorts

46

6ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport

Foreword

ThereporttitledABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport-OverarchingRegionalReportgatherstheresearchandanalysisthathasbeenpreparedundertheWorldBank’sABlueTransformationfortheMaritimeTransportprogram.TheprogramdevelopedabroadunderstandingofwhatthekeymaritimeissuesareinthePacificataregionalandnationallevel.Likewise,itidentifiedgapswheretechnicalassistancecanmoveforwardanddrivesecond-generationmaritimetransportinvestmentswithasolidanalyticalunderpinning.Theregionalreportbalancesthepresentationofdeepanalysesfromtheprogram’svarioustechnicalassessmentsandhighlightsitskeyfindings.

Acknowledgements

ThepreparationofthisABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport-OverarchingRegionalReportwasbasedonexpertinputfromArup,Cardno,GHDandtheUniversityofNewSouthWales.TheWorldBankteamresponsibleforthisreportwasledbyFeiDeng,SeanMichaelsandNinanOommenBiju,andcomprisedofYinYinLam,DominikEnglert,AndrewLosos,YongJianVun,AndreyOrlandoAsian,KatherineBaker,NicoleBaker,JenniferBrown,AdrianSammons,RichardCroad,MariekeHilhorst,JaimeLeeBrown,TheVinhMai,KrystynaOsena,FredericoPedroso.

TheArupteamcomprisedofEmilyGentilini,EdRowe,RossNewcombe,LaurenDelony,NahilaRahman,MirandaSnowdon,SamanathaYealland,EllieSolomons,JamsheedBhanjaandMeganCowling,

TheCardnoteamcomprisedofRoryGarland,BenHart,BrittHendriks,TrevorLarkinandAlisonMcKechnie.

TheGHDteamcomprisedofRichardHill,GuyReynolds,KatePanayotou,EmmaNewlandandLuisaCarmine-Zuniga.

TheUniversityofNewSouthWalesteamcomprisedofBenMilligan,IsabelleRojon,MichaelBurnside,TristanSmithandAlisonShaw.

TheWorldBankGrouppeerreviewerswereLuisBlancas,GylfiPalssonandArtessaSaldivar-Sali.AdditionalvaluablefeedbackandperspectiveswereprovidedbyJessieMcCombattheWorldBank.

TheWorldBankteamwouldliketoexpressitsgreatappreciationtoBenedictEijbergen,ManuelaFerroandStephenNdegwaattheWorldBankfortheirmanagerialguidanceandconstructivesuggestionsduringtheplanning,developmentandfinalizationofthisresearch.Theirwillingnesstogivetheirtimeandsupportsogenerouslywashighlyvalued.

FundingforthisreportwasprovidedbyPROBLUE,anumbrellamulti-donortrustfund,administeredbytheWorldBank,thatsupportsthesustainableandintegrateddevelopmentofmarineandcoastalresourcesinhealthyoceans.

ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport7

Executive

Summary

Source:AdrianSammons/AMSTEC.

8ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport

PacificIslandcountriesareadiversesetofislandstates,butfacesimilarconstraintsonopportunitiestogrowtheireconomiesandreducepoverty.

Thecomplexitiesofmovingsmallnumbersofpeopleandgoodsaroundavastoceanliesattheheartoftheissue.Theregion’suniquegeographycreatesbarrierstoeconomicsustainabilityandgrowth.

TheBlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransportprogramislookingforsolutions.Itaimstoidentifyopportunitiesforsignificantchangeandinvestmentthatcouldimproveservices,facilitateeconomicactivity,reducepoverty,andimproveresilienceandsafetyforPacificIslandcommunities.

Forthistohappen,seatransportneedstobeappropriate,affordable,reliable,accessible,sustainable,andsafe,withinandbetweencountries,nowandinthefuture.AcrossthePacific,thismeanssupplychainsecurityforessentialimportsandbetterconnectionswithoverseasexportmarkets.Withinacountry,itwillensurepeoplecanaccessessentialservicesandlocalmarkets,andmaintainsocialties,whethertheyliveinmajorurbanareasoronremoteouterislandcommunities.

Long-termbenefits

Theprogramaimstocontributetolong-termbenefitsforPacificIslandcountries:improvedmaritimesafety;reducedmaritimetransportcosts;initiativestoreduceports’energyandresourceconsumption,waste,andenvironmentalimpacts(“greenport”initiatives);increasedresiliencetoclimatechangeandnaturaldisasters;greatercapacityandcapabilityinnationalandregionalmaritimeinstitutions,andadecarbonizedmaritimesector(“blueshipping”initiative).

Afundamentaltruthunderpinsthisreportandinfluencesitsfindings.ThePacificregionhasauniqueeconomicgeographythatdefinesitsmaritimetransportsystems.ThatmeanssolvingthechallengesformaritimeconnectivityinthePacificrequiresanexclusiveapproach—theanswersdonotlieinwhatworksinotherpartsoftheworld.

ThisreportisasynthesisofseveralthematicassessmentsbytheWorldBank,includingconnectivity,vulnerability,institutions,andgreenportsassessments.Itsintentistocreateasharedunderstandingofwherethingsareworkingquitewell,wheretheyareevolvingandwouldbenefitfromfurthersupport,andwheretherearedistinctgapsthatrequiretheattentionofPacificIslandgovernmentsandregionalagencies,supportedbydevelopmentpartnersandprivateenterprise.Andthatthiswillleadtobettertargetedandmorecoordinatedprogramswithprioritizedactions.

StructureoftheReport

Thisreporthaseightchapters.Followingtheintroduction(PacificPeoplesandtheSea),thenextsixchapterseachfocusonaseparatesignificantcomponentofPacificmaritimetransport,analyzingthemajorinfluencesandchallenges,and,whererelevant,keyareasforfutureattention.Thetopicsare:

?Internationalshipping

?Gatewayports

?Domesticmaritimetransport

?Fourrelatedsectors—cruiseshiptourism,tunafisheries,fossilfuelimports,andbulkshipping?Naturaldisastersandclimateresilience

?Sectorgovernanceandinstitutions

Thefinalchapter,TransformingPacificMaritimeTransport—WaysForward,distilsthereport’sfindingsintothemostsignificantandfar-reachingopportunitiestotransformmaritimetransportinthePacific.Thesearegroupedintothreebroadthemes—infrastructure,services,andgovernanceandcapacitybuilding.WaysForwardcomesattheendand,forreadersunabletoviewthewholereport,isagoodplacetobegin.

TherestofthisexecutivesummaryexplainswhythePacificisaspecialcaseforinvestmentandprovidesasummaryofthemainchaptersandfindings.Butfirst,itdescribeswhichPacificIslandcountriescontributedtothestudy.

ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport9

CountriesintheBlueTransformationStudy

WhilemaritimetransportisfundamentaltothelivesandlivelihoodsofallPacificIslandstatesanddependencies,thisreportdrawslargelyontheexperiencesof12WorldBankmembercountries,referredtoasthe“PIC12countries”.ThesearetheMelanesiancountriesofPapuaNewGuinea(PNG),SolomonIslands,Vanuatu,andFiji;thePolynesiancountriesofSamoa,Tonga,andTuvalu;andtheMicronesiancountriesoftheMarshallIslands(RMI),theFederatedStatesofMicronesia(FSM),Palau,Kiribati,andNauru.

TheMelanesiancountrieshavethelargestlandareas,populations,andresources,occupying98.9percentofthePacificlandmassandmakingupabout96percentofitstotalpopulation.MicronesianandPolynesiancountries,atolls,andmicro-statesaresmaller,andhavearelativelytinypoolofpeople,butarecollectivelyresponsibleforalmosttwo-thirdsofthePIC12countries’vastoceanicexclusiveeconomiczones.

WhythePacificisaSpecialCase

ThenatureofPacificIslands—tinyparcelsoflanddispersedacrossanoceanexpanse—shapedtheregion’speoples,theircultures,theireconomies,andhowtheytravelthroughouttheirregions.

Thisgeographycreateshugebarrierstoeconomicgrowth—anarrowundiversifiedproductivebase,smallpopulationsscatteredacrossvastareas,andfragmentedinfrastructureandservices.

Aiddependent

largelyinthe

formofgrants

ThePacific

technicalassistance.

accompaniedby

isthemostaid

dependentregionin

theworld,

$

Severalcountriesareat

andaid

makeupsubstantialfractionsofmanyeconomies.

Remittances

highriskof

debtdistress.

Strategiestypicallyappliedtogrowtheeconomiesofdevelopingcountries—increasingthevalueofexports—areunlikelytoworkinPICsgiventheirgeography[andothers]thatrestrictseconomicgrowth.Anexclusiveanduniquesetofsolutionsisrequired.

Whatwehavetoday

MaritimetransportforthePIC12countriesisacomplexsetofintertwinedsystemsrelatingtointernationaltradeandshipping,infrastructureandassets,institutionalandgovernancearrangements,localculture,andworkforcecapabilityandcapacity.Theseareinturninfluencedbyinteractionswithandbetweengovernments,regionalagencies,developmentpartners,andtheprivatesector.

Somechallengesareunlikelytochangeintheshorttomid-term.Thecountriesaregeographicallyremoteanddispersed,shippingdistancesarevast,transportcostsarehigh.Supplychainsarelong,lowvolume,andslow.ShipcallsarelessfrequentandtransittimeslongerrelativetoPacificRimcountries.Mostcountrieshavesmallpopulations,smalllandareas,andlackeconomiesofscale.Tradeisimbalancedduetoarelianceonimports.Countriesareenvironmentallyfragile,andvulnerabletoclimatechange,naturaldisasters,andeconomicshocks(thinkpandemicsandfuelpricesurges).Networksarevulnerableandsusceptibletodisruption.TheatollnationsofKiribati,RMI,andTuvalumaybecomesubmergedby2100.

10ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport

Somechallengescanchange.Acultureofsafetycanbebuilt,andgovernanceoversightimproved.Holistictransportsystemscanbedesigned,thatintegrateallaspectsofseatravel—fromroutestovesselstojettiestoup-to-datemarinenavigationcharts—ensuringthatthesystemsupportsvibranturbanareasandtheviabilityofouterislandlife.Awhole-of-lifeapproachtoinfrastructureplanning,design,build,andmaintenancecanbeadopted.Fleetscanberenewedwithfit-for-purposevesselsabletoberetrofittedaslow-carbontechnologiescomeonstream.Greenhousegasemissionsandvariedtypesofpollutionfromportscanbecurbed.

WhilethereissignificantroomforimprovementinthePacific,muchabouttheexistingmaritimetransportsystemsworkswell.Theyaremultipurpose,adaptive,andhavemultipleattributesthatcreateresilienceinthesystem.Itisimportantthatcountriesanddevelopmentpartnersacknowledgeandbuildontheseresilientattributes,whilemakingdedicatedeffortstoaddresstheopportunitiesforimprovement.

ASnapshotoftheBrightestOpportunitiesforTransformation

ThemosttransformationalopportunitiesforimprovingmaritimetransportinthePacificlieininfrastructure,services,andthesafetyofdomesticshipping.Fiveactionsidentifiedbythisstudywillhelpdelivertheseopportunities:

?Action1:Investinmaritimeinfrastructureforlife.

Awhole-of-lifeapproachtobuildingandmaintaininginfrastructurewillhelpensuremaritimeassets,includingports,lasttheirdesignedlifeandareappropriate,cost-effective,enduring,andsafe.

?Action2:Improveplanningtomakemaritimetransportfuture-proof.

Inafutureframedbyfast-movingclimatechange,creatingresilientmaritimetransportsystemsisallaboutplanning.MaritimeservicesandinfrastructureplannedwithinbuiltresiliencewillreducethePacific’s

vulnerabilitytoeconomicandenvironmentalshocksandhelpbuildeconomicgrowthandstability.?Action3:Enhancemaritimeservicestobetterconnectcommunities.

Pacificeconomiesrelyonconnectedcommunities.Connectedcommunitiesneedreliableandaffordablemaritimetransportservices.Socialandeconomicbenefitsaccruefrominvestmentinsafe,affordable,reliablemaritimetransportthatleavesnoonebehind.Povertywillreduce.Economicresiliencewillincrease.Communitieswillprosper.

?Action4:Improvesafetythroughleadership,commitment,andinvestment.

Safetydoesn’thappenbyaccident,butlackofsafetyleadstotragicaccidents.SafetyinthePacificneedsleadership,commitment,andinvestmentinfitforpurposedomesticmaritimetransportsystems(vessels,infrastructure,maintenance),education,andsafepractices.

?Action5:Enhancegovernancetoimproveefficiencyanddeliverbetteroutcomes.

Leadershipandgoodgovernanceattherightlevel,intherightplace,willleadtobetteroutcomes.GettinginstitutionalgovernancerightatbothregionalandnationallevelsisaprecursortoeffectivepolicydevelopmentanddeliveryinthePacific.

Thefiveactionsareintertwined,whichisastrength.Deliveringonanyoneofthemwillenableandfosterachievingtheothers.

RethinkingsomeGoals

TheBlueTransformationstudyfindingssuggestthatfourambitiousgoalsforPacificIslandcountriesmayrequirearethink.Specifically,whetherheavyinvestmentinmaritimeinfrastructureandportfacilitieswillboostanacceleratedgrowthincruiseshiptourism;whethermaritimetransportationandinfrastructureisacriticalconstraintforrevenuecaptureintunaindustryinthePacific;whetherbetterlogisticsarrangementsinthemaritimesectorcanreducethelargeproportionofemptycontainersandcurrenttradeimbalance;andwhetherdecarbonizationtargetssetforthemaritimesectorinthePacificcanbepracticallyachieved?

ABlueTransformationforPacificMaritimeTransport11

ChapterSummaries

InternationalShipping

Internationalshipping

servicesinthePacific

aregenerallyfit-for-purpose,Thearelikelytoremainsofor

tomeetlocalneedsandthe

consistent,reliable,andoptimizedtheforeseeablefuture.

availableportinfrastructure.

ThevolumeofinternationaltradeforPacificIslandcountriesissmallcomparedtolargerdevelopedcountriesorPacificRimcountri