DCF估值、DDM估值、APV估值、AE估值、EVA估值模板

,一般情景預(yù)測,,,,,,,,,

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,調(diào)整性現(xiàn)值估值,,,分析日期,2006/5/29,,,,,

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,假設(shè),數(shù)值,,,,,,,,

,第二階段(2010-2017)年數(shù),8,,,,,,,,

,第二階段增長率,1.00%,,,,,,,,

,長期增長率,0.00%,,,,,,,,

,無風(fēng)險利率Rf,5.00%,,,,,,,,

,β(βlevered),1.05,,,,,,,,

,Rm,10.00%,,,,,,,,

,Ke(Kelevered),10.25%,,,,,,,,

,稅率,24.38%,,,,,,,,

,Vd/Ve,0.18,,,,,,,,

,無負債β(βunlevered),0.93,,,,,,,,

,無負債Ke(Keunlevered),9.63%,,,,,,,,

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,1.無債務(wù)時的公司價值,,,,,,,,,

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,第一階段,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,,,,

,FCFF,"2,341.29","6,012.12","10,639.33","15,031.03","16,284.81",,,,

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,第二階段,2011E,2012E,2013E,2014E,2015E,2016E,2016E,2017E,

,FCFF,"16,447.66","16,612.13","16,778.25","16,946.04","17,115.50","17,286.65","17,459.52","17,634.11",

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,階段,現(xiàn)金流折現(xiàn)值（萬元）,價值百分比,,,,,,,

,第一階段,"40,773.85",24.02%,,,,,,,

,第二階段,"65,890.21",38.82%,,,,,,,

,第三階段（終值）,"63,062.71",37.16%,,,,,,,

,無負債時的公司價值,"169,726.77",100.00%,,,,,,,

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,2.加：債務(wù)的效益,,,,,,,,,

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,預(yù)期稅收效益,,"2,857.39",,,,,,,

,,,,,破產(chǎn)概率參考（為美國公司的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，來源于InvestmentValuation）,,,,,

,3.減：預(yù)期破產(chǎn)成本（對債務(wù)率低的公司可忽略該項）,,,,,,,,,

,,,,,債券評級,違約率,,,,

,財務(wù)評級,,B,,,,,,,

,破產(chǎn)的概率,,20.00%,,D,100.00%,,,,

,破產(chǎn)成本占無債務(wù)時公司價值的比例,,40.00%,,C,80.00%,,,,

,預(yù)期破產(chǎn)成本,,"13,578.14",,CC,65.00%,,,,

,,,,,CCC,46.61%,,,,

,4.經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn),,,,B-,30.50%,,,,

,,,,,B,26.36%,,,,

,經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn),,"159,006.01",,B+,19.28%,,,,

,,,,,BB,12.20%,,,,

,5.總股本價值,,,,A-,1.41%,,,,

,,,,,A+,0.40%,,,,

,加：非核心資產(chǎn),,"32,315.61",,AA,0.28%,,,,

,減：債務(wù)價值,,"11,721.45",,AAA,0.01%,,,,

,減：少數(shù)股東權(quán)益,,"6,851.94",,,,,,,

,總股本價值,,"172,748.24",,財務(wù)評級可在Bloomberg中查到，評級為A－F，可參考上表估算對應(yīng)的破產(chǎn)概率,,,,,

,股本（萬股）,,"11,000.00",,,,,,,

,每股價值（元）,,15.70,,,,,,,

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,敏感性測試,,,,,,,,,

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,敏感性測試結(jié)果,長期增長率(g),,,,,,,,

,無負債Ke,-1.00%,-0.50%,0.00%,0.50%,1.00%,1.50%,2.00%,2.50%,3.00%

,7.50%,19.20,19.75,20.37,21.08,21.90,22.85,23.98,25.34,26.99

,8.00%,18.06,18.53,19.05,19.64,20.32,21.10,22.01,23.08,24.37

,8.50%,17.05,17.45,17.89,18.39,18.95,19.59,20.33,21.20,22.22

,9.00%,16.14,16.48,16.86,17.28,17.75,18.29,18.90,19.61,20.43

,9.50%,15.32,15.62,15.94,16.30,16.70,17.15,17.66,18.24,18.92

,10.00%,14.58,14.83,15.11,15.42,15.76,16.14,16.57,17.06,17.61

,10.50%,13.90,14.12,14.36,14.63,14.92,15.25,15.61,16.02,16.48

,11.00%,13.28,13.48,13.69,13.92,14.17,14.45,14.76,15.11,15.50

,11.50%,12.72,12.88,13.07,13.27,13.49,13.73,13.99,14.29,14.62

,12.00%,12.19,12.34,12.50,12.68,12.87,13.08,13.31,13.56,13.84

,12.50%,11.71,11.84,11.98,12.14,12.30,12.49,12.68,12.90,13.15

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,指標說明：,,,,,,,,,

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預(yù)期稅收效益=稅率×債務(wù)價值（前提：假設(shè)利息保持不變）,,,,,,,,,

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預(yù)期破產(chǎn)成本=破產(chǎn)的概率×破產(chǎn)成本=破產(chǎn)的概率×破產(chǎn)成本占無債務(wù)時公司價值的比例×無債務(wù)時的公司價值,,,,,,,,,

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經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)=無債務(wù)時的公司價值＋稅收效益－預(yù)期破產(chǎn)成本,,,,,,,,,

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公司價值=經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)＋非核心資產(chǎn)價值－少數(shù)股東權(quán)益,,,,,,,,,

,公司自由現(xiàn)金流FCFF=EBIT×（1-所得稅率）＋折舊－資本支出－非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化,,,,,,,,,

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