銀行業(yè)資負跟蹤：如何看Q2央行問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果

銀行行業(yè)銀行行業(yè)如何看Q2央行問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果？——銀行資負跟蹤20230702家、城因此本次問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果可能并未包含降息影響。貨幣政策發(fā)力會對銀行間利率形成向下牽引，而財政擴張會對銀行間后看實體流動性和宏觀經(jīng)濟預(yù)期均有改善空間。度超預(yù)期。告日期相對市場表現(xiàn)3-07-0207/2203/2305/2309/2211/2207/2203/2305/23-3%-8%-22% 銀行滬深300倪軍倪軍03646omSFCCENoBQV9100364503644wujiahuigfcomcn請注意，倪軍,伍嘉慧并非香港證券及期貨事務(wù)監(jiān)察委員會的注冊持牌人，不可在香港從事受監(jiān)管活動。銀行行業(yè)2023年中期投資策2023-06-25動23-06-20業(yè):LPR23-06-202023-06-18行業(yè):2023-06-180618文雪enxueyang@銀行司估值和財務(wù)分析表稱碼報告日期級合理價值(元/股)2023E2024E2023E2024E2023E2024E2023E2024E8.SH.82/5/5154.594.190.500.46行9.SH/5/3534.574.090.530.48銀行8.SH/4/30.16.780.884.534.010.510.478.SH/5/4.770.82.084.770.520.488.SH.89/4/27144.894.290.600.548.SH/4/30374.724.230.470.436.SH/4/27.936.87.524.770.880.780.SH/4/19614.644.500.340.32銀行/5/34.204.49.733.490.450.418.SH/5/4.750.844.093.650.400.36行.SZ/4/2562.593.094.343.630.530.46.SZ0/4/28.75.974.766.375.320.950.829.SH/5/4164.193.700.590.53杭州銀行6.SH/6/272.342.93.024.010.750.65行8.SH/4/267.173.84.853.180.720.6116/4/2048.544.610.760.66K.18/5/515.693.370.400.37行K/5/353.433.070.400.36銀行K/4/30.780.88.663.240.410.38K/5/4.49.770.82.783.550.380.36K/4/3037.913.510.390.36K/4/27.936.87.574.800.890.78K/5/4.23.750.842.782.480.270.25K.82/4/27144.473.920.550.49銀行 13率：月末周票據(jù)利率回落 15 (一)同業(yè)存單：本周存單發(fā)行上量，3M占比34% 20 銀行表索引 圖25：央行逆回購余額(億元) 14 圖31：票據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)利率(3個月)(%) 18圖32：票據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)利率(6個月)(%) 19 A ) 24銀行 表1：近期央行公開市場操作一覽(億元) 13 表4：同業(yè)存單信用利差及到期收益率結(jié)構(gòu)(環(huán)比變動單位為bp，其余均為%) 表9：商業(yè)銀行債券發(fā)行情況(億元) 30 表12：二級資本工具發(fā)行情況(億元) 32表13：永續(xù)債發(fā)行情況(億元) 32 銀行一、本期觀察：如何看待二季度央行問卷調(diào)查結(jié)果？2023年6月29日，央行發(fā)布2023年第二季度企業(yè)家、銀行家、城鎮(zhèn)儲戶問卷調(diào)查報經(jīng)濟預(yù)期沖高，進入Q2后，一方面實體需求在Q1有所透支，另一方面，22Q4以來售增速再次回落，市場悲觀情緒有所蔓延。pct當期就業(yè)感受指數(shù)環(huán)比下行2.3pct，同比提升2.0pct，未來就業(yè)預(yù)期指數(shù)環(huán)比下行t季度回升，23Q2環(huán)比提升1.3pct，幅度大于23Q1(0.4pct)，消費偏好以旅游、娛。pct季度整體企業(yè)經(jīng)營狀況不差。Q求有一定透支；(2)當前銀Q落，居民儲蓄意愿仍偏高，預(yù)計上半年息差保持收銀行-03-06-09-039-06-090-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-03-06-099-03-06-09-03-03-06-09-039-06-090-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-03-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-031-06-09-03-06-09-03-06時考慮到財政已經(jīng)退坡了接近三個季度，在既定財政預(yù)算下，前期退坡就是后期發(fā)圖1：中國:銀行家宏觀經(jīng)濟熱度指數(shù)(%).000.00.00.00.00.00.00.00 -038-06-09-03-06-09-03-060-09-038-06-09-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06)圖2：中國:宏觀經(jīng)濟預(yù)期指數(shù)(%).00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-0665.00.00.00銀行-038-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-038-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06圖7：中國:當期收入感受指數(shù)(%).00.00-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.002.00.00-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06圖6：中國:貨幣政策感受指數(shù)(%)75.0070.0065.0060.0055.0050.0045.0040.0035.0030.008-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-098-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-031-06-09-03-06-09-03-06圖8：中國:未來收入信心指數(shù)(%).00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.00.00.00.00.00.000.00-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-------------------------------------------03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-060000000000-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-0600.00000000 -03-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-060.00.00.00.00.00.00.00-03-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-0600銀行----------------------.00000000 -03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-062-09-033-06.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00 -03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.000000-03-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.000.00.00.00.00-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.000-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06銀行-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06-038-06-099-03-06-09-03-060-09-03-06-09-03-06-09-03-06.00.00.0006月最后兩周央行逆回購凈投放1.12萬億元(見表1)，截至6月30日，逆回購余額高調(diào)節(jié)回歸，政策重心重回穩(wěn)增長，因此央行加大了短期流動性投放，預(yù)計短期內(nèi)資金面收緊的概率不大。6月最后兩周存單發(fā)行繼續(xù)放量，合計發(fā)行1.13萬億元，日均發(fā)行1258億元(上期1083億元)，發(fā)行利率回升6bp(見圖34)。期限結(jié)構(gòu)上，3M存單規(guī)模占比上升至期限回落至0.56年(上期0.60年)，月末兩周票據(jù)利率震蕩回落，顯示6月下旬信貸投放可能偏弱。長債利率小幅上升后回落(見圖26)，截至月末為2.64%，略低于1整體實現(xiàn)凈投放5,570億元。下期央行公開市場將有11,690億元逆回購到期。p銀行率90.9%，其中AA+級以下87.7%。加權(quán)平均發(fā)行利率2.28%，較上期上行6bp，加權(quán)發(fā)行期限0.56年(上期：0.60年)。本期同業(yè)存單到期9,449億元，到期存單加權(quán)2億元。下期無商業(yè)銀行債到期。的(三)下期關(guān)注：跨季央行流動性投放和資金面波動，關(guān)注央行流動性投放和資金面波動情況。銀行二、央行動態(tài)與市場利率(一)央行動態(tài)：6月下旬央行逆回購放量本期(2023年6月26日~6月30日)央行公開市場共開展9,730億元7天逆回購操作，逆回購到期4,160億元，整體實現(xiàn)凈投放5,570億元。下期央行公開市場將有11,690表1：近期央行公開市場操作一覽(億元)起始日購回購到期存款機構(gòu)債權(quán)月度環(huán)比變1111111111/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/25/6/21/6/20/6/19/6/16/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/25/6/21/6/20/6/19/6/1600000-- 1,450 1,820 890 440 20 20 20 20------------------------------54555/6/26/6/19/6/12/6/5/5/29/7/2/6/25/6/18/6/11/6/4160-- 2,370---- 2,000-------/6/1/6/3000-/5/1/5/3101/4/1/4/3006/3/1/3/31040008100/2/1/2/2809907/1/1/1/310/12/1/12/313100/10/1/10/31/9/1/9/300000/8/1/8/31000005/7/1/7/3100/6/1/6/3000000011111/7/3/7/4/7/5/7/6/7/7/7/3/7/4/7/5/7/6/7/740000-----銀行圖25：央行逆回購余額(億元)0-2526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031d銀行(二)市場利率：月末周票據(jù)利率回落p%)4.00000002023年5月2023年4月2023年3月2023年2月2022年6月2526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031d銀行表2：銀行間市場主要基準利率及環(huán)比變化情況(環(huán)比變動單位為bp，其余均為%)標名稱標名稱環(huán)比變化(單位bp)50/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/2/5/26標名稱SHIBOR:1MSHIBOR:3MSHIBOR:6MSHIBOR:9MSHIBOR:1Y環(huán)比變化(單位bp).00/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/22023/5/26標名稱NCD(AAA):1MNCD(AAA):3MNCD(AAA):6MNCD(AAA):9MNCD(AAA):1Y環(huán)比變化(單位bp)3/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/22023/5/26標名稱國債收益率:1Y國債收益率:3Y國債收益率:5Y國債收益率:10Y國債收益率:30Y環(huán)比變化(單位bp)/6/30/6/16/6/9/6/2/5/26銀行圖28：貸款利率(%).50.00貸貸款市場報價利率(LPR):5年金融機構(gòu)人民幣貸款加權(quán)平均利率 4.304.203.653.55 2.752.65半年票據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)利率(%)-1月3月半年銀行圖30：票據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)利率(1個月)(%)-2023年6月上月去年同月去年上月2023年4月2023年3月2023年2月23242526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031nd圖31：票據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)利率(3個月)(%)2023年6月上月去年同月去年上月2023年4月2023年3月2023年2月-23242526272829303112345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031nd圖32：票據(jù)轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)利率(6個月)(%)-2023年6月上月同月上月23年4月2023年3月2023年2月232425262728293031119202122232425262728293031234567891011121415161718nd銀行/15/10/5/301/25/20/17/12/7/10/272/22/16/12/7/2/271/22/17/14/15/10/5/301/25/20/17/12/7/10/272/22/16/12/7/2/271/22/17/14/9/4/290/242/19/13/10/5/31/251/20/15/12/7/2日，下期為2023年7月3日~2023年7月9日。限為151天。2.發(fā)行：本期總發(fā)行11,320億元，日均發(fā)行1,258億元(上期1,083億元)，本期加權(quán)平均發(fā)行利率2.28%(上期2.22%)，AAA級加權(quán)平均發(fā)行利率2.28%(上(上期：0.60年)，1年期發(fā)行占比32.0%(上期：30.6%)，3個月期發(fā)行占比33.9%(上期：18.2%)。(上期：84.1%)。為2.38%。圖33：【存量】存量同業(yè)存單規(guī)模與平均票面利率(左軸：億元，右軸：%)存量同業(yè)存單規(guī)模與平均票面利率(億元，%)存量存單平均票面利率-右軸5000一天(每周日，本周為2023/07/02)。銀行0000分銀行類型實際發(fā)行額(周，億元)與總募集成功率(周，%)2022/5/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/42/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2圖35：【發(fā)行】同業(yè)存單募集完成率以及AA+以下同業(yè)存單募集完成率(周，%)同業(yè)存單募集完成率(周，%)/8/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/62022/11/20/42/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2銀行起始日M3M合計單位：%)環(huán)比上期變動(單位:bp)19.267.167.769.723.086.9092023/6/192023/7/2552023/6/122023/6/181.972.112.212.262.372.223/6/53/6/52023/6/1151.992.132.282.3352023/5/292023/6/42.112.112.192.322.392.462.3852023/5/222023/5/282.042.202.202.342.422.492.34單位：%)環(huán)比上期變動(單位:bp)10.3611.1712.368.224.898.282023/6/192023/7/292023/6/192023/7/29552023/6/122023/6/181.892.052.092.232.322.1653/6/52023/6/111.941.942.082.562.292.362.21/5/29/6/4/5/29/6/4552023/5/222023/5/281.901.902.182.292.382.452.32股份行平均票面利率(單位：%)環(huán)比上期變動(單位:bp)10.8513.6227.2310.995.208.8792023/6/1792023/6/172023/6/30552023/6/102023/6/161.942.042.062.252.332.202023/6/32023/6/32023/6/952023/5/272023/6/22023/5/272023/6/25552023/5/132023/5/191.952.232.322.442.492.43城商行平均票面利率(單位：%)環(huán)比上期變動(單位:bp)16.835.367.427.633.773.5692023/6/172023/6/30552023/6/102023/6/162.072.162.212.352.462.272023/6/32023/6/32023/6/952.102.192.252.3852023/5/272023/6/22.002.002.272.322.462.542.4252023/5/202023/5/262.022.022.292.362.442.542.39農(nóng)商行平均票面利率(單位：%)環(huán)比上期變動(單位:bp)12.129.927.45-1.990.394.72992023/6/172023/6/3052023/6/102023/6/162.172.172.162.212.452.512.2552023/6/32023/6/92.252023/5/272023/5/272023/6/2552023/5/202023/5/262.152.152.302.362.452.592.38銀行表4：同業(yè)存單信用利差及到期收益率結(jié)構(gòu)(環(huán)比變動單位為bp，其余均為%)同業(yè)存單信用利差(bp)%)級/期限環(huán)比上期變化(1/6/3094/6/23.9725/6/1600/6/9276/6/2831級/期限MMMMYMMMMY環(huán)比上期變化(1/6/3020/6/23.9782/6/16.8350/6/9.36.337/6/2.543級/期限環(huán)比上期變化(4/6/30/6/23/6/16/6/9/6/2.28圖36：【發(fā)行】同業(yè)存單發(fā)行規(guī)模、加權(quán)發(fā)行期限以及9M以上發(fā)行占比(左軸：年、%；右軸：億元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/42022/12/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/200-銀行/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2圖37：【發(fā)行】國有大行同業(yè)存單發(fā)行規(guī)模、加權(quán)發(fā)行期限以及9M以上發(fā)行占比(左軸：年、%；右軸：億元)發(fā)行規(guī)模-億元,右軸加權(quán)發(fā)行期限9M以上發(fā)行占比%00-圖38：【發(fā)行】股份行同業(yè)存單發(fā)行規(guī)模、加權(quán)發(fā)行期限以及9M以上發(fā)行占比(左軸：年、%；右軸：億元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/200-圖39：【發(fā)行】城商行同業(yè)存單發(fā)行規(guī)模、加權(quán)發(fā)行期限以及9M以上發(fā)行占比(左軸：年、%；右軸：億元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/90/23/61/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/2-圖40：【發(fā)行】農(nóng)商行同業(yè)存單發(fā)行規(guī)模、加權(quán)發(fā)行期限以及9M以上發(fā)行占比(左軸：年、%；右軸：億元)/22/5/19/3/17/31/14/28/11/25/92022/10/23/62022/11/20/412/18/1/15/29/12/26/12/26/9/23/7/21/4/18/20-M銀行表5：同業(yè)存單周度發(fā)行期限結(jié)構(gòu)起始日分期限實際發(fā)行額(億元)各期限發(fā)行額占比M以上9/6/19/7/23,8342,0388%32%0%5/6/12/6/186741,27412%24%31%5/6/5/6/1120%24%21%5%5/5/29/6/436584115%34%37%5/5/22/5/2806%23%10%32%2%5/5/15/5/21882782773216%43%5/5/8/5/14115%1%42%4%3/5/1/5/711,166607447712%9%46%5/4/24/4/3081,63670333816%8%29%6/4/17/4/23108821%3%46%9%5/4/10/4/1614020%2%42%4%4/4/3/4/97%2%29%5/3/27/4/2227326%2%5/3/20/3/2657934414%8%46%5/3/13/3/1988311,560512%22%37%5/3/6/3/12819%19%30%9%5/2/27/3/572940510%47%5/2/20/2/2692,2545897222%%0%5/2/13/2/1941,0722,00532%23%5/2/6/2/1291683312%47%16%7/1/23/2/53475582,8469%44%5/1/16/1/227585632%5/1/9/1/15261471%11%24%4/1/2/1/80607746%5%7%4%銀行表6：【存量】部分銀行同業(yè)存單余額、周度到期及凈融資額(億元)名Q1AQ3H存單到期存單凈融資58955行28,1677,743-168銀行126112,894-1865,8925,8929838,7338,642-103銀行68,5609,10347,7077,62893134918,0157,64776,7427,027行88715,8786,1663,6043,587615963,3993,253042,9183,0002,5432,5522-17003,5103,3121236,0066,210行734,8665,1537814,7325,016杭州銀行367210行-185銀行48行8-127-10063-175行01行791747433332323206941410989018183銀行末存量同業(yè)存單平均票存量同業(yè)存單平均票面利率2023Q12022A2022Q3H末存量同業(yè)存單剩余存量同業(yè)存單剩余期限2023Q12022A2022Q3H22246.60246.60195.62行9185.3518銀行.82130.73192.57610191.78165.84172.47165.91170.55179.4875.96銀行166.72125.49137.72172.28155.03191.51108.84121.29129.041178.24行131.84129.87169.25154.97132.33167.978139.93159.5987.96130.05134.98157.89166.73153.12146.43196.66176.98行77.53131.19170.924.23110.261120.57杭州銀行114.66163.18153.89行114.95123.17176.44.89150.09156.62177.91181.73銀行128.44120.92103.65141.85141.85125.61132.09行6161.49127.40127.40119.65141.8995.88126.90116.89134.95106.85120.95172.14183.50158.19行173.46171.68160.1793.60125.90125.03138.56188.30162.57行6137.1471.2589.47227.4571.10125.41.000230.0037.2037.2036.004.51177.03188.4525.225.28117.2854.03102.17d銀行表8：【到期】同業(yè)存單未來到期情況(億元)銀行類型AA+以下起始日合計AAAA+AAAAA+市商市商商業(yè)銀行1/7/2/7/21-1---1---1/7/5/7/58919351/7/8/7/88241/7/11/7/1136-1/7/14/7/14641/7/17/7/179409211/7/20/7/20837/6/19/7/277/7/3/7/9597/7/10/7/1684727/7/17/7/2397/7/24/7/306059/4/1/4/30617/5/1/5/31881/6/1/6/30611502/7/1/7/316/8/1/8/31736/9/1/9/308126/10/1/10/316285銀行(二)商業(yè)銀行債：本期355億元商業(yè)銀行債發(fā)行表9：商業(yè)銀行債券發(fā)行情況(億元)起始日結(jié)束日合計發(fā)行發(fā)行規(guī)模AA+以下AAAA合計合計發(fā)行發(fā)行筆數(shù)AA+以下AAAA11111/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26------------------------------4192023/6/2553125122023/6/1852353/6/52023/6/11-2-252023/5/292023/6/4-31252023/5/222023/5/285322023/6/12023/6/30492023/5/12023/5/3142023/4/12023/4/3022023/3/12023/3/3172023/2/12023/2/2856商業(yè)銀行普通債信用利差(bp)商業(yè)銀行普通債到期收益率(%)級/期限(AAA):7Y(AAA):10Y環(huán)比上期變化(1.130.41/6/3082482.953.03/6/2336992.942.943.02/6/163380/6/98902.923.02/6/26532.933.03級/期限YYYYYYYY(AA+):7Y(AA+):10Y環(huán)比上期變化(1.460.75/6/3033.073.14/6/2373.053.14/6/1683.023.12/6/973.033.13/6/2873.033.13銀行表11：【到期】商業(yè)銀行債券未來到期情況(億元)況AA+以合計下AAAAAAA+銀行類型商起始日市商到期規(guī)模(億元)1111111/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20------ 25-------------------------------------------------7777/6/19/7/3/7/10/7/17/7/24/7/2/7/9/7/16/7/23/7/30 4- 10 25 2044----------- 10 25------------- 10 2544----/4/1/4/3053/5/1/5/31-0-0-/6/1/6/304----4/7/1/7/31----/8/1/8/3133/9/1/9/30--/10/1/10/31-----01111111/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20/7/2/7/5/7/8/7/11/7/14/7/17/7/20------ ---------------------1---------------------1-------7777/6/19/7/3/7/10/7/17/7/24/7/2/7/9/7/16/7/23/7/30 - 11---------1---11--------------11111----/4/1/4/302221391/5/1/5/315-32-32-/6/1/6/3022111----1/7/1/7/3133-12--3-/8/1/8/319911712322/9/1/9/3088-621-42/10/1/10/3133-3-1--1-831144銀行未來30天到期1筆，到期規(guī)模15億元。表12：二級資本工具發(fā)行情況(億元)起始日結(jié)束日合計發(fā)行規(guī)模AAAA+以下AAAAAAA+合計合計發(fā)行發(fā)行筆數(shù)AA+以下AAAAAAA+11111/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26/6/30/6/29/6/28/6/27/6/26--------1---------------2-----1----------1-42023/6/192023/6/25--------52023/6/122023/6/18--1--152023/6/52023/6/1155--1--52023/5/292023/6/4--------52023/5/222023/5/28--1-1-2023/6/12023/6/3066-4-22023/5/12023/5/310-0-2-2-2023/4/12023/4/3092612023/3/12023