第十章項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理

第十章項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理項(xiàng)目整體管理范圍管理質(zhì)量管理成本管理時(shí)間管理人力資源管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理采購(gòu)管理溝通管理核心功能輔助功能干系人需求和期望工具、技術(shù)1項(xiàng)目管理-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理目標(biāo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義及其重要性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來(lái)源、識(shí)別方法風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制方法2項(xiàng)目管理-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理內(nèi)容一、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概念二、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃三、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別四、定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析五、定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析六、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)響應(yīng)計(jì)劃七、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控八、練習(xí)3項(xiàng)目管理-風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理軟日件衰開(kāi)規(guī)發(fā)米的喜所根面擔(dān)臨點(diǎn)的加問(wèn)訓(xùn)題不彼斷凳變臟化與的揀需寄求糟駝糕近的挨計(jì)您劃親與超估酸算缺探乏耍管晴理具經(jīng)妙驗(yàn)人跑員譜問(wèn)揮題技盲術(shù)胸失瞎敗。碧。島。杰。錯(cuò)。暮。項(xiàng)吹目訴成予功濃的霜概及率糧大冊(cè)大策下墓降4項(xiàng)廁目碼管緩理盜-虜風(fēng)齡險(xiǎn)井管勻理一哨、賴(lài)風(fēng)油險(xiǎn)桑概砌念風(fēng)并險(xiǎn)封定撞義風(fēng)框險(xiǎn)臺(tái)：斷遭腰受銹損拾失粗（反l粗o虹s指s以）催的鋼可旦能帆性追。風(fēng)窗險(xiǎn)譜管妹理跳：奔一望種爬問(wèn)予題倘分偽析物的飾手旬段蘇，糠它斥采乓用匆風(fēng)哄險(xiǎn)悟概感率鞭去揉估同計(jì)止某道情松況德下魔的掀風(fēng)帳險(xiǎn)螺，師達(dá)梯到蒼對(duì)煙所心涉屋及桑風(fēng)灑險(xiǎn)擺更鑼為焰精幅確灑的擔(dān)了映解蜂。它風(fēng)景險(xiǎn)兼管猛理職包匙括鐘風(fēng)騙險(xiǎn)眾識(shí)冶別謠、獄分爐析怪、書(shū)優(yōu)腐先璃級(jí)所排崗序畏和下控棗制午。其都它尸定妄義傻類(lèi)靠型令腐人室不刺快織的幼事約情哈發(fā)紫生刮的柳概弦率濫及米其炮后應(yīng)果勇的嫩嚴(yán)損重丟性對(duì)終項(xiàng)恒目主產(chǎn)抽生穿負(fù)餐面次影雞響莖的叔不短確循定際事本件劃的雜累惱計(jì)稀效四果暴索露丹于招糟抹糕舞后杜果由之膠下叢的千可斗能握性5項(xiàng)典目蹤蝶管氧理擱-傳風(fēng)杠險(xiǎn)僻管兇理風(fēng)塑險(xiǎn)彈類(lèi)石型已捏知內(nèi)風(fēng)枝險(xiǎn)已勤被殿識(shí)阿別漸和膀分佛析鐵，蟻可宗以度做軍出騎相要應(yīng)羽的恒風(fēng)屈險(xiǎn)不響籌應(yīng)狼計(jì)汽劃未條知愚風(fēng)普險(xiǎn)無(wú)碑法糧預(yù)絡(luò)知測(cè)的溉風(fēng)進(jìn)險(xiǎn)虛，跨如膚果脈發(fā)購(gòu)生移，際項(xiàng)侄目佩經(jīng)資理顯可絕以頁(yè)根慌據(jù)臉類(lèi)種似支項(xiàng)撇目姜來(lái)頓制饅定父應(yīng)值急通方冒案6項(xiàng)若目年管大理知-扔風(fēng)渴險(xiǎn)接管槍理風(fēng)標(biāo)險(xiǎn)慌概雅念我竭知踐道分我售知料道競(jìng)什莊么我棗不哀知雨道鄰我盟不武知找道址什板么我撞知桑道毒我腦不塞知害道喜什睛么7項(xiàng)糾目卸管首理灶-變風(fēng)礎(chǔ)險(xiǎn)垮管捷理風(fēng)乎險(xiǎn)喝管融理圓層總次危薦機(jī)瓦管紅理救霸火包型份，炎當(dāng)瘦問(wèn)定題頑嚴(yán)極重木時(shí)培才姻會(huì)驗(yàn)應(yīng)概對(duì)事梳后歌補(bǔ)殃救當(dāng)描風(fēng)泉險(xiǎn)痰發(fā)果生述后默能個(gè)夠雕快旱速撲做繪出頃反蝕應(yīng)風(fēng)判險(xiǎn)紗緩薯解通斜過(guò)蓬預(yù)死先捉計(jì)櫻劃蹄的醉方輛式諸描涉述格當(dāng)擋風(fēng)搜險(xiǎn)俯發(fā)蓋生手時(shí)顧的熄解癥決滔方巾法圖，刊但床并長(zhǎng)未穿試霞圖臉排置除遞風(fēng)鏟險(xiǎn)風(fēng)憐險(xiǎn)弟預(yù)慨防把恭實(shí)旨施奇風(fēng)漏險(xiǎn)測(cè)計(jì)斜劃語(yǔ)作運(yùn)為阻項(xiàng)絡(luò)目模的邀一蘭部想分海，升識(shí)的別籮風(fēng)草險(xiǎn)陽(yáng)并怖防使患勾于棚未續(xù)然風(fēng)遠(yuǎn)險(xiǎn)執(zhí)去柔除確裁認(rèn)門(mén)與株排窮除薯可取能束造旺成欲風(fēng)堵險(xiǎn)輪的量因完素8項(xiàng)樣目饅管更理倒-幕風(fēng)幸險(xiǎn)岔管斜理風(fēng)做險(xiǎn)軌概主念風(fēng)史險(xiǎn)址效撇用風(fēng)悉險(xiǎn)豬效嫌用驕：役是侮從山潛律在易回潑報(bào)馬中出得碗到暑滿(mǎn)奪足貴或誓快覺(jué)樂(lè)返的喉程弱度摩，沸又退稱(chēng)翁為渴風(fēng)靈險(xiǎn)將承方受層度奪。風(fēng)討險(xiǎn)念厭琴惡助型中輩性恩型風(fēng)海險(xiǎn)勻喜盟好棟型9項(xiàng)藏目歇管沾理病-緊風(fēng)塌險(xiǎn)句管以理風(fēng)濟(jì)險(xiǎn)均概孝念風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡型

中性型

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)喜好型效用

效用

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風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)1鈔0項(xiàng)笛目卸管表理桂-育風(fēng)禾險(xiǎn)堂管組理風(fēng)親險(xiǎn)局管劃理內(nèi)組浙成風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)響應(yīng)1惱1項(xiàng)碼目蓄管諒理閘-殲風(fēng)兼險(xiǎn)搶管伙理二休、要風(fēng)郵險(xiǎn)黨管遠(yuǎn)理的計(jì)紙劃輸入項(xiàng)目章程組織風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理策略定義的角色與職責(zé)相關(guān)利益人的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力組織風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃模版工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（WBS）工具與技術(shù)會(huì)議輸出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃1孤2項(xiàng)掛目梨管跑理話-池風(fēng)單險(xiǎn)承管蜓理風(fēng)型險(xiǎn)皂管級(jí)理漢計(jì)騙劃榨內(nèi)鋸容風(fēng)斧險(xiǎn)既管愛(ài)理轎方庭法項(xiàng)虧目茫所桌使現(xiàn)用析的炭風(fēng)覺(jué)險(xiǎn)購(gòu)管好理翻方掛法使淺用赤的會(huì)數(shù)暗據(jù)剛來(lái)龜源風(fēng)號(hào)險(xiǎn)防管卷理內(nèi)的交角白色哲和屋職勇責(zé)風(fēng)振險(xiǎn)謎管名理釀活棕動(dòng)叔的鑰負(fù)鼻責(zé)穩(wěn)人斧及世相峰關(guān)裝人瓜員風(fēng)根險(xiǎn)道管應(yīng)理上預(yù)朵算風(fēng)鍬險(xiǎn)疊管木理?yè)醯难蓬A(yù)械算春（冤例笑如饞資俱源喜）1英3項(xiàng)朱目自管案理交-眉風(fēng)飛險(xiǎn)餅管危理風(fēng)屈險(xiǎn)直管汪理收計(jì)艙劃均的摟內(nèi)醫(yī)容降（嗓續(xù)止）風(fēng)居險(xiǎn)殼管遼理察的拔頻區(qū)度根悲據(jù)堅(jiān)項(xiàng)椅目百生店命臭周旁期襪來(lái)緩描為述堡在尚不讀同惹的桶時(shí)芝間辭段尚執(zhí)弓行表的歉風(fēng)笨險(xiǎn)賴(lài)管植理詠活希動(dòng)風(fēng)士險(xiǎn)搜數(shù)臣值閉描晉述預(yù)拌先宗定疏義宵定吹量腥風(fēng)弱險(xiǎn)懶分饑析慨中葬不絹同龍數(shù)峽值順的些標(biāo)天準(zhǔn)病與簡(jiǎn)含犁義風(fēng)狡險(xiǎn)裂閥救值當(dāng)爆達(dá)稻到埋風(fēng)瓶險(xiǎn)饑閥箭值河時(shí)得所際采膊取沉的富活錄動(dòng)糠。顫對(duì)裝于毯不法同朋的效利霧益目相叼關(guān)恭人等（句項(xiàng)鑄目權(quán)經(jīng)鈴理發(fā)、君客營(yíng)戶(hù)鏡、病高狡層夜經(jīng)臭理并等乳）知會(huì)貧定驅(qū)義仁不睛同聲的撤閥床值1胸4項(xiàng)跟目襪管癥理熟-湯風(fēng)希險(xiǎn)罷管某理風(fēng)軍險(xiǎn)薪管領(lǐng)理葵計(jì)拉劃查的傍內(nèi)鮮容狠(匹續(xù)匆)風(fēng)揪險(xiǎn)件響患應(yīng)罵計(jì)虹劃壞的息內(nèi)職容械與墻格汗式確艙定屯風(fēng)抄險(xiǎn)驅(qū)響紅應(yīng)潔計(jì)疊劃勿的援格蜓式墾，倒它輩是輕風(fēng)區(qū)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)管電理媽最英主匠要第的蘇動(dòng)糕態(tài)努文努檔風(fēng)劑險(xiǎn)風(fēng)跟嫌蹤記丸錄桿項(xiàng)戰(zhàn)目稈中預(yù)發(fā)貴生拋風(fēng)魔險(xiǎn)求供辨將貼來(lái)喚的券項(xiàng)短目牧參午考1散5項(xiàng)隆目武管阿理仇-百風(fēng)塘險(xiǎn)鉛管畢理三愁、典風(fēng)胡險(xiǎn)左識(shí)仁別輸入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃輸出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分類(lèi)歷史信息工具與技術(shù)文檔評(píng)審信息收集方法檢查表假設(shè)分析圖形分析技術(shù)輸出風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觸發(fā)器對(duì)其他過(guò)程的輸出1撲6項(xiàng)發(fā)目禮管脊理戲-懂風(fēng)殲險(xiǎn)秋管碰理風(fēng)皂險(xiǎn)壟分蛙類(lèi)1惹、鍵技惱術(shù)掉或湊質(zhì)咱量假風(fēng)舞險(xiǎn)2禿、萄項(xiàng)緩目緒管游理疼風(fēng)趙險(xiǎn)3蕩、冤組殘織酸風(fēng)長(zhǎng)險(xiǎn)4閣、諷外掘部弊風(fēng)新險(xiǎn)5扇、艇市覺(jué)場(chǎng)活風(fēng)守險(xiǎn)6拜、愧財(cái)胞務(wù)炎風(fēng)剝險(xiǎn)1其7項(xiàng)詳目暗管暫理旁-誦風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存管杰理風(fēng)敘險(xiǎn)樸分喉類(lèi)1吃、技擴(kuò)術(shù)劉或程質(zhì)漢量各風(fēng)活險(xiǎn)使情用繁未爭(zhēng)經(jīng)捏驗(yàn)蔑證恥的等或渾復(fù)名雜萬(wàn)的釘技視術(shù)項(xiàng)葵目白進(jìn)柜行屬過(guò)掀程味中珍變招更映技麥術(shù)眠路魔線硬綁件悲、夕軟邁件版和飾網(wǎng)摘絡(luò)榨功捏能鋒劃杠分滲不損合弦理在否有蔽用怪的配產(chǎn)蓬品孫生鈴產(chǎn)筆出抄來(lái)器之啄前多，蔑該覆技步術(shù)扛過(guò)盟時(shí)不效現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)實(shí)亞的蓋質(zhì)秒量滔目臂標(biāo)2獸、湊項(xiàng)屆目構(gòu)管擦理生風(fēng)瞧險(xiǎn)不鴨合間理攜的貝進(jìn)全度資枕源來(lái)沖均突缺則乏拘項(xiàng)執(zhí)目基管茫理芹經(jīng)稠驗(yàn)1夏8項(xiàng)帶目刮管脾理抄-呈風(fēng)早險(xiǎn)白管歲理風(fēng)靜險(xiǎn)竭分俱類(lèi)洞（寧續(xù)差）3眼、欣組椒織士風(fēng)嚴(yán)險(xiǎn)對(duì)稼項(xiàng)望目覺(jué)的駐重弄視域程軌度候不妹夠資排金民缺持乏4下、忽外囑部禾風(fēng)冤險(xiǎn)業(yè)討主卡變王更法仆律候糾跌紛1謠9項(xiàng)身目籠管株理績(jī)-猴風(fēng)坐險(xiǎn)麗管手理風(fēng)武險(xiǎn)輕分桿類(lèi)扎（腫續(xù)岔）5是、飼市遭場(chǎng)迷風(fēng)遮險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)雪品娃或增服吼務(wù)味能族推赴銷(xiāo)嚷出歇去距嗎案？用肉戶(hù)姑會(huì)普接閑受袋并捷采蹄用哲這雜一泡產(chǎn)港品普或河服屯務(wù)夜嗎介？會(huì)妹不凳會(huì)只被痕競(jìng)方爭(zhēng)駕對(duì)燈手仍趕撿在概前圖面刻？6航、斃財(cái)著務(wù)舒風(fēng)魔險(xiǎn)組糧織微有蠢能糧力厚承眾擔(dān)始這虜一欺項(xiàng)劑目雷嗎棕？項(xiàng)努目永干絞系捐人鑒在姜財(cái)量務(wù)深預(yù)蹤蝶算依時(shí)奔的奸信圍心篇如姑何西？項(xiàng)抄目唱會(huì)夾滿(mǎn)釘足絨N筆P慰V宇、驚R不O賓I則和雪回隸報(bào)手估紹計(jì)除嗎鮮？如意果知不陣能犧滿(mǎn)向足點(diǎn)，薦公羞司卵還庸有爬能蜓力濾繼裝續(xù)隨進(jìn)以行鋸該博項(xiàng)辨目前嗎公萌司連的爆現(xiàn)漿金贊流凡是蠶否捆能復(fù)夠畏支轉(zhuǎn)撐送該它項(xiàng)政目先？2剃0項(xiàng)坑目沾管狼理流-怠風(fēng)惱險(xiǎn)嘴管惕理風(fēng)區(qū)險(xiǎn)倘檢約查輸表可被以懲根院據(jù)夕組衡織漏中跌的在歷始史涉信緒息染對(duì)汁風(fēng)說(shuō)險(xiǎn)摧進(jìn)卡行睜分朝類(lèi)例挨如眠項(xiàng)摩目拴在構(gòu)開(kāi)瓜始巷時(shí)論所敲做鬧的哄項(xiàng)噴目修成濟(jì)功映/岡失場(chǎng)敗芬分透析育，僚由肥項(xiàng)素目洞經(jīng)互理匙根混據(jù)賄項(xiàng)貼目牽的擺實(shí)字際志情戒況醫(yī)填轎寫(xiě)街各藏種甚風(fēng)角險(xiǎn)叢發(fā)捧生鵝的砌可烘能遮性枝以循及戰(zhàn)對(duì)享項(xiàng)鈔目息的衡影健響酒程許度2秘1項(xiàng)誕目丑管飲理束-污風(fēng)姿險(xiǎn)族管撥理風(fēng)盾險(xiǎn)襖歷呢史摸信賊息風(fēng)險(xiǎn)名稱(chēng)過(guò)去的項(xiàng)目化解措施總結(jié)評(píng)價(jià)缺陷遺漏率高EB2，EB3增加評(píng)審人員目前測(cè)試效率的范圍為97%-99.9%

項(xiàng)協(xié)目金估混計(jì)互偏恐差竭過(guò)無(wú)高E蔽W怨1摔，命E莫W蘆3采辭用賠功排能倚點(diǎn)咱（狗F漲P瓣A理）量估營(yíng)計(jì)欲方按法目諸前給估插計(jì)賭偏守差躬的悲范春圍鞏為何1腫2源%終-家4良4接%風(fēng)斯險(xiǎn)負(fù)識(shí)擺別域－碑專(zhuān)般家踏判秘?cái)嘁浪馁?lài)湯專(zhuān)血家令們窩的恩直漸覺(jué)閘和競(jìng)以煮往腦的機(jī)經(jīng)么驗(yàn)2羞2項(xiàng)徒目眠管饅理侮-設(shè)風(fēng)曠險(xiǎn)歌管揚(yáng)理I聯(lián)T許項(xiàng)霜目犁常戶(hù)見(jiàn)勵(lì)風(fēng)仇險(xiǎn)人燒力把資番源梅風(fēng)摔險(xiǎn)人強(qiáng)員泳的撕時(shí)森間夾和川精路力遲不間能偶滿(mǎn)鳥(niǎo)足人乘員刻拒農(nóng)絕頓參榆加哭到雙項(xiàng)懶目臭組項(xiàng)朽目揀組倒人膽員莖不腿穩(wěn)摔定沒(méi)濱有悶合澇適導(dǎo)的方培屠訓(xùn)群講怕師硬距件團(tuán)資壩源妙和肝環(huán)須境專(zhuān)風(fēng)草險(xiǎn)缺粱少駱必途要區(qū)的強(qiáng)軟螺件硬被件屑設(shè)往備吊不香具匙備辦制公蜜環(huán)郊境承落小后測(cè)穿試庭所夠需趟的呈軟疏硬治件攤資尋源封不菌滿(mǎn)納足測(cè)獵試除環(huán)裳境數(shù)的緩準(zhǔn)嬸備瓜不檔充耽分2雕3項(xiàng)侍目戒管牙理改-貝風(fēng)鑰險(xiǎn)矛管耍理I諸T眼項(xiàng)邊目獎(jiǎng)常躍見(jiàn)界風(fēng)性險(xiǎn)莖（場(chǎng)續(xù)斷）客號(hào)戶(hù)紐奉需脊求性風(fēng)穗險(xiǎn)客常戶(hù)存需半求穿不榮明喉確客探戶(hù)最需頌求行發(fā)揉生釀變死更客勤戶(hù)蘇需醒求模發(fā)殺生朵重刻大窯變病化技鑼術(shù)婚風(fēng)榴險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)謙目瞇經(jīng)梨理遣、研項(xiàng)蹲目質(zhì)人全員促的預(yù)能探力角不情足項(xiàng)遮目蛾組膚未伍正禁確獎(jiǎng)理奴解殲客騙戶(hù)孩需倉(cāng)求項(xiàng)停目批組吵設(shè)竊計(jì)毒的侄方沃案寄不變能釣完給全曠滿(mǎn)躲足盜客晴戶(hù)工需易求沒(méi)匆有窄合挺適句的帽需團(tuán)求貢分豬析鼻方藝法冊(cè)和脂建喊模煉工拴具測(cè)瓣試南范逝圍床不塑合仰理金，濁無(wú)既法斷明役確冷定難義頂測(cè)后試或項(xiàng)測(cè)搏試驅(qū)用口例縮慧的金選后擇爭(zhēng)缺醫(yī)乏久代堵表華性湖、川不盟完嚷備2椒4項(xiàng)沃目火管鄭理頃-促風(fēng)叢險(xiǎn)防管恥理I飯T奔項(xiàng)皂目撿常倡見(jiàn)秀風(fēng)寸險(xiǎn)鼓（惜續(xù)貨）質(zhì)訊量跨風(fēng)譽(yù)險(xiǎn)需邪求插報(bào)跟告滋發(fā)孫生銜質(zhì)墾量尺問(wèn)題題概貿(mào)要彼設(shè)鳥(niǎo)計(jì)載發(fā)敞生撒質(zhì)委量祝問(wèn)匯題詳朽細(xì)眨設(shè)怠計(jì)粉發(fā)悔生棍質(zhì)械量落問(wèn)望題用航戶(hù)詞操期作紡手照冊(cè)章發(fā)流生忽質(zhì)愿量革問(wèn)升題代麥碼偵質(zhì)軍量鞏不簡(jiǎn)符打合鐮項(xiàng)鮮目齒編錘碼星規(guī)集范父的叫要放求單刃元餡測(cè)撥試網(wǎng)問(wèn)障題討報(bào)妨告蕉數(shù)就量沒(méi)過(guò)唇多各宴單各元蛋模斑塊攔集倉(cāng)成槳后命，替整原個(gè)龜系抗統(tǒng)橫出走現(xiàn)幕重月大孫問(wèn)嫩題系提統(tǒng)用的特某黎些估性貨能勺指濟(jì)標(biāo)茶不急能閱達(dá)愧到椅客棄戶(hù)嗚需階求樓明濁確休定刪義荷的蓄驗(yàn)粒收攝指摸標(biāo)2糊5項(xiàng)普目裹管架理敗-逃風(fēng)雙險(xiǎn)雅管杜理I氧T臘項(xiàng)勺目撥常撥見(jiàn)甘風(fēng)斃險(xiǎn)劇（機(jī)續(xù)刷）質(zhì)余量蔬風(fēng)輛險(xiǎn)伍（放續(xù)沸）軟貍件填產(chǎn)裙品澇出崇現(xiàn)驚功俗能員性舒錯(cuò)紐奉誤軟修件炮產(chǎn)行品傻出蛇現(xiàn)亂性艦?zāi)芩釂?wèn)艷題軟母件凱產(chǎn)切品動(dòng)未跪通陸過(guò)爪公溜司富內(nèi)列部拖評(píng)攻審軟摘件蛋復(fù)伐制貨過(guò)歌程欠中迷產(chǎn)繡生死質(zhì)深量倒問(wèn)帝題不犧能鎮(zhèn)完乘成型軟滲件籮產(chǎn)欣品仿安愉裝對(duì)釋已引安菌裝鄙的臘軟文件測(cè)產(chǎn)險(xiǎn)品凳的知測(cè)壁試迷產(chǎn)逼生乞新叨的籠問(wèn)壞題試出運(yùn)驅(qū)行慣階賣(mài)段戰(zhàn)發(fā)故現(xiàn)劑軟咱件拾產(chǎn)陷品打存諸在催錯(cuò)喇誤2時(shí)6項(xiàng)插目情管誘理仆-變風(fēng)尿險(xiǎn)夜管犁理I螞T些項(xiàng)虧目他常斥見(jiàn)日風(fēng)餐險(xiǎn)闖（什續(xù)拾）客府戶(hù)潑關(guān)啞系糠風(fēng)趙險(xiǎn)無(wú)隸法活與傍用奇戶(hù)趴對(duì)何交筋付嚷形菊式眉、妙交此付浙時(shí)草間味和團(tuán)交均付腫內(nèi)液容檢達(dá)臭成泉共設(shè)識(shí)用仰戶(hù)紅對(duì)賊軟畜件酸產(chǎn)礦品護(hù)不刃認(rèn)命可姥，兼不籃在石交降付栗清沖單予和非試差運(yùn)膠行駕報(bào)男告家上幼簽撫字客蔽戶(hù)穿承拜諾合穴同留風(fēng)威險(xiǎn)收樸款汗風(fēng)裁險(xiǎn)2掠7項(xiàng)稱(chēng)目茄管舊理姻-映風(fēng)霞險(xiǎn)楊管邀理四雞、滲定趣性波風(fēng)穴險(xiǎn)撕分晌析輸入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目狀態(tài)項(xiàng)目類(lèi)型數(shù)據(jù)精度概率與影響的程度假設(shè)工具與技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率、影響分析概率/影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析矩陣項(xiàng)目假設(shè)的測(cè)試數(shù)據(jù)精度排序輸出項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)排序風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先級(jí)列表需要進(jìn)一步分析的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)列表風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析結(jié)果的趨勢(shì)2加8項(xiàng)基目辨管停理境-驅(qū)風(fēng)株險(xiǎn)協(xié)管蟲(chóng)理定淚性泰風(fēng)麗險(xiǎn)字分耽析風(fēng)票險(xiǎn)扎概近率攤（R秩i歸s曾k胸p冠r采o判b宜a鈔b鴿i夠l及i喜t暢y）事隔件堂發(fā)羨生伏的扯可即能濟(jì)性疏有牛多掀大聽(tīng)？勤發(fā)眠生韻的急頻澆率術(shù)是陳多倦少凱？得足失串量睛（A殘m鏈o秘u桂n律t煎a漁t愉s奔t豈a犯k我e）事菊件臣的溪影猴響政（I讓m以p畢a不c唉t辟o脂f珠e途v質(zhì)e陣n郊t）惰。址可資能圣造旨成喊的漸損凍失類(lèi)程陜度蛇如打何耗？2燭9項(xiàng)井目遺管蜂理晚-盜風(fēng)捐險(xiǎn)寶管共理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率影響(impact)關(guān)鍵設(shè)計(jì)者轉(zhuǎn)到另外項(xiàng)目中高在驗(yàn)收前用戶(hù)改變高中不可能得到領(lǐng)域?qū)＜易鞣治龈吒咂脚_(tái)（編譯器，OS）有大量錯(cuò)誤非常低高硬件進(jìn)口過(guò)度地延期高高人員連續(xù)性低于平均水平高中開(kāi)發(fā)過(guò)程不合適非常低低3企0項(xiàng)拆目蟲(chóng)管橋理潛-她風(fēng)縫險(xiǎn)偷管掀理3園1項(xiàng)尖目衰管深理傳-浙風(fēng)昨險(xiǎn)幟管配理五乏、拳定且量諷風(fēng)湊險(xiǎn)猛分舍析輸入風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先級(jí)列表需要進(jìn)一步分析的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)列表歷史信息專(zhuān)家判斷工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)（WBS）工具與技術(shù)訪談靈敏度分析決策樹(shù)分析模擬輸出量化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的優(yōu)先級(jí)列表項(xiàng)目的概率分析達(dá)到時(shí)間目標(biāo)與成本目標(biāo)的概率量化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析結(jié)果的趨勢(shì)3腦2項(xiàng)帆目統(tǒng)管商理餓-匆風(fēng)贏險(xiǎn)誼管躺理期見(jiàn)望者貨功幣測(cè)值風(fēng)荒險(xiǎn)仙事哄件矩的胞概帆率靠和圍風(fēng)澡險(xiǎn)俊事燒件姓貨魯幣響值昌的型乘鉛積直寸觀濤地禾以斗貨堡幣視形寫(xiě)式沙來(lái)陜表吹現(xiàn)3左3項(xiàng)蜂目允管陜理亂-爆風(fēng)襲險(xiǎn)悟管傲理概率（P）乘以結(jié)果＝EMVP＝0.20×$300000＝＋60000項(xiàng)目1決策P=0.80×-$40000=-$32000

P＝0.20×-$50000=-$10000

項(xiàng)目2P＝0.10×-$20000=-$2000P＝0.70×$60000=$42000項(xiàng)目1的EMV＝$60000-32000=$28000項(xiàng)目2的EMV＝-$10000-2000＋42000=$300003眼4項(xiàng)四目吸管清理冷-居風(fēng)誘險(xiǎn)變管舒理決拾策糞樹(shù)色分留析將株一摔系伏列許事續(xù)件濕分完解凱為剃更球小閥、戲更士簡(jiǎn)辦單慎的耽情襖況朝。洋下絕圖阿顯部示攏了振一料個(gè)淹決收策輸樹(shù)它的俘例燈子夜。呀根牛部住的潤(rùn)決困策衛(wèi)畫(huà)斧在仆左盞邊趟。境分先叉酒的駐決預(yù)策窮從傾根貞部凱引邊出我。錄根注據(jù)漏你曬的逗決冠策習(xí)，病你詢(xún)可伸以屯得倆到權(quán)最瞎高德的遇回吩報(bào)直、爛花鬧費(fèi)便最瓣低暢的猜成似本模等貢。世對(duì)譽(yù)于釘每德一夾棵左樹(shù)尖，禽計(jì)頌算頂相丑應(yīng)悄的哄風(fēng)敗險(xiǎn)炊值帆（職E鍵M浸V姜）3襲5項(xiàng)為目時(shí)管銀理皮-狹風(fēng)澇險(xiǎn)承管陰理3鑄6項(xiàng)捐目諸管翁理界-必風(fēng)且險(xiǎn)兩管父理六嘗、儉風(fēng)員險(xiǎn)自響退應(yīng)處計(jì)火劃輸昏入風(fēng)盟險(xiǎn)擴(kuò)管析理愚計(jì)付劃風(fēng)敘險(xiǎn)植優(yōu)賽先瞞級(jí)材列剖表量侵化食風(fēng)扭險(xiǎn)膜的馳優(yōu)翁先幸級(jí)蜘列覽表項(xiàng)床目宅的規(guī)風(fēng)辰險(xiǎn)如排斯序需借要比進(jìn)騎一美步優(yōu)分襲析站的穿風(fēng)涼險(xiǎn)水列織表項(xiàng)旅目灶的陽(yáng)概謊率醉分廳析潛燒在嗓響咸應(yīng)利列廊表風(fēng)介險(xiǎn)當(dāng)閥嚷值風(fēng)單險(xiǎn)克所魯有利者風(fēng)宮險(xiǎn)吹共寨同挑原秩因定歪性旬與披定肯量判風(fēng)腎險(xiǎn)雨分袋析繁結(jié)兵果收的巧趨磁勢(shì)工恨具近與柳技撞術(shù)規(guī)視避轉(zhuǎn)盆移減極弱接燙受輸焦出風(fēng)安險(xiǎn)劈燕響膚應(yīng)拾計(jì)溝劃風(fēng)摸險(xiǎn)僻殘匹值銀分愉析次崗要鹿風(fēng)宋險(xiǎn)合眼同釘協(xié)弊議需弱要川的維應(yīng)書(shū)急享量對(duì)馳其比他按過(guò)洗程旬的稅輸渾出項(xiàng)擊目悶計(jì)立劃澡的嫁修通訂3艦7項(xiàng)嗚目碑管冬理跡-晚風(fēng)通險(xiǎn)歷管藍(lán)理風(fēng)舍險(xiǎn)敵響蹦應(yīng)求的低類(lèi)雄型規(guī)陽(yáng)避工沈程傷法呈：抽防薦止耐風(fēng)抄險(xiǎn)移因兆素淚出霧現(xiàn)減聯(lián)少去已擺經(jīng)竄存芝在球的群風(fēng)撕險(xiǎn)閃因陡素將憲風(fēng)捧險(xiǎn)做因待素丈與準(zhǔn)潛尚在榜受怨損掛目烘標(biāo)玩隔泰離教瓣育貨：煌使格相霸關(guān)宅人拴員冬接摘受兵風(fēng)幅險(xiǎn)宜及吊風(fēng)銷(xiāo)險(xiǎn)殊管處理垂教王育制聽(tīng)度錄：兩以行制稈度叛化必的汽方盲式臣從虎事陶項(xiàng)條目徐活伸動(dòng)3揀8項(xiàng)君目棉管廟理孩-粗風(fēng)范險(xiǎn)速管愛(ài)理風(fēng)保險(xiǎn)豎響寨應(yīng)貍的矛類(lèi)挎型須（掏續(xù)咽）轉(zhuǎn)調(diào)移敞：少借礙用梯合漸同唱或