世界銀行-恢復增長：在財政約束下重建充滿活力的新冠疫情后世紀經(jīng)濟體（英）-2021.10-60正式版

OCTOBER2021|SEMIANNUALREPORTOFLATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANREGIONRecoveringGrowthRebuildingDynamicPost-COVID-19EconomiesAmidFiscalConstraints每日免費獲取報告1、每日微信群內(nèi)分享7+最新重磅報告；2、每日分享當日華爾街日報、金融時報；3、每周分享經(jīng)濟學人4、行研報告均為公開版，權(quán)利歸原作者所有，起點財經(jīng)僅分發(fā)做內(nèi)部學習。掃一掃二維碼關(guān)注公號回復：研究報告加入“起點財經(jīng)”微信群。。2RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTS?2021InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank1818HStreetNW,WashingtonDC20433Telephone:202-473-1000;Internet:Somerightsreserved123424232221ThisworkisaproductofthestaffofTheWorldBankwithexternalcontributions.The?ndings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthisworkdonotnecessarilyre?ecttheviewsofTheWorldBank,itsBoardofExecutiveDirectors,orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.TheWorldBankdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthiswork.Theboundaries,colors,denominations,andotherinformationshownonanymapinthisworkdonotimplyanyjudgmentonthepartofTheWorldBankconcerningthelegalstatusofanyterritoryortheendorsementoracceptanceofsuchboundaries.NothinghereinshallconstituteorbeconsideredtobealimitationuponorwaiveroftheprivilegesandimmunitiesofTheWorldBank,allofwhicharespeci?callyreserved.RightsandPermissionsThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)http:///licenses/by/3.0/igo.UndertheCreativeCommonsAttributionlicense,youarefreetocopy,distribute,transmit,andadaptthiswork,includingforcommercialpurposes,underthefollowingconditions:Attribution—Pleasecitetheworkasfollows:WorldBank.2021.“RecoveringGrowth:RebuildingDynamicPost‐COVID-19EconomiesAmidFiscalConstraints”LACSemiannualReport(October),WorldBank,Washington,DC.Doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1806-6.License:CreativeCommonsAttributionCCBY3.0IGOTranslations—Ifyoucreateatranslationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThistranslationwasnotcreatedbyTheWorldBankandshouldnotbeconsideredanof?cialWorldBanktranslation.TheWorldBankshallnotbeliableforanycontentorerrorinthistranslation.Adaptations—Ifyoucreateanadaptationofthiswork,pleaseaddthefollowingdisclaimeralongwiththeattribution:ThisisanadaptationofanoriginalworkbyTheWorldBank.ResponsibilityfortheviewsandopinionsexpressedintheadaptationrestssolelywiththeauthororauthorsoftheadaptationandarenotendorsedbyTheWorldBank.Third-partycontent—TheWorldBankdoesnotnecessarilyowneachcomponentofthecontentcontainedwithinthework.TheWorldBankthereforedoesnotwarrantthattheuseofanythird-party-ownedindividualcomponentorpartcontainedintheworkwillnotinfringeontherightsofthosethirdparties.Theriskofclaimsresultingfromsuchinfringementrestssolelywithyou.Ifyouwishtore-useacomponentofthework,itisyourresponsibilitytodeterminewhetherpermissionisneededforthatre-useandtoobtainpermissionfromthecopyrightowner.Examplesofcomponentscaninclude,butarenotlimitedto,tables,?gures,orimages.AllqueriesonrightsandlicensesshouldbeaddressedtothePublishingandKnowledgeDivision,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625;e-mail:pubrights@.ISBN(electronic):978-1-4648-1806-6DOI:10.1596/978-1-4648-1806-6Coverphoto:Illustrationbasedonaphotographby:IakovFilimonov.Coverdesign:AlejandroEspinosa(Sonideas).RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSAcknowledgementsThisreportisaproductoftheChiefEconomistOf?ceforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanattheWorldBank.ThepreparationofthereportwasledbyWilliamMaloney(ChiefEconomist)andDanielRiera-Crich-ton(ResearchEconomist)withcontributionsfromGuillermoBeylis(Economist),VirgilioGaldo(ResearchAnalyst),ElenaIanchovichina(DeputyChiefEconomist),MariaMartaFerreyra(SeniorEconomist),AyanQu(ResearchAnalyst),LuisDiegoRojasAlvarado(Consultant),JoanaSilva(SeniorEconomist),RuchetaSingh(ResearchAnalyst)andGuillermoVuletin(SeniorEconomist)intheChiefEconomistOf?ce(LCRCE).Substantivecontributionsweremadefromacrosstheregionalteams:HumanDevelopment:LuisBenveniste(RegionalDirector,HLCDR),Health:MicheleGragnolati(PracticeManager,HLCHN),GianlucaCafagna(HealthSpecialist,HLCHN),CristianAHerrera(SeniorHealthSpe-cialist,HLCHN),Education:EmanuelaDiGropello(PracticeManager,HLCED),JuanDiegoAlonso(SeniorEconomist,HLCED),IndianaTaylor(SeniorProgramAssistant,HLCDR),SocialProtectionandJobs:WilliamWiseman(LeadEconomist,HLCSP),andHarryEdmundMoroz(Economist,HLCSP).InfrastructureandEnergy:FranzDrees-Gross(RegionalDirector,ILCDR),LuisAndres(SectorLeader,ILC-DR),DoyleGallegos(LeadDigitalDevelopmentSpecialist,IDD01),NicoleKlingen(PracticeManager,IDD01),NiccoloComini(DigitalDevelopmentSpecialist,IDD01),?NicolasPeltier(PracticeManager,ILCT1),StephanieGil(PracticeManager,ILCE1),ClaudiaInesVasquezSuarez(SeniorEnergySpecialist,ILCE1),JaninaFranco(SeniorEnergySpecialist,ILCE1),JavierMoralesSarriera(Economist,ILCT1),FabianHinojosa(Transportspecialist,ILCT1),andLeonardoCanonRubiano(SeniorTransportspecialist,ILCT1).EquitableGrowth,FinanceandInstitutions:RobertR.Taliercio(RegionalDirector,ELCDR),Poverty:Xi-menadelCarpio(PracticeManager,ELCPV),HernanWinkler(SeniorEconomist,ELCPV),SergioOlivieri(SeniorEconomist,ELCPV),andDianaSanchezCastro(ResearchAnalyst,ELCPV).Procurement:MajedEl-Bayya(LeadProcurementSpecialist,EPSPF)andSerenaSaraDanielaCocciolo(Economist,EPSPF).Finance,CompetitivenessandInnovation:DenisMedvedev(PracticeManager,ETIFE),SaraBrolhatodeOliveira(Consultant,ETIFE),SantiagoReyesOrtiga(Extended-termConsultant,ETIFE),JoseErnestoLopezCordova(LeadEconomist,ETIFE),andXavierCirera(SeniorEconomist,ETIFE).Prospects:TemelTaskin(Economist,EPGDR),andFranzUlrichRuch(Economist,EPGDR).Country-speci?cmacroeconomicestimatesandwrite-upswereproducedbycountryeconomistsintheMacroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice,underthecoordinationofJamesSampi(Econo-mist,ELCMU).ContributorsincludedSoniaAraujo,RafaelBarroso,ElenaBondarenko,LuigiButron,BlediCeliku,TamoyaChristie,FabianoColbano,BarbaraCunha,SimonDavies,AntonDobronogov,JozefDraa-isma,PaoloDudine,JulianFolgar,FernandoGiuliano,MarekHanusch,JohannesHerderschee,SantiagoHerrera,EvansJadotte,SantiagoJustel,WooriLee,RanLi,RohanLongmore,DavidCalMacWilliam,Edu-ardoOlaberria,RafaelOrnelas,AndresPinchao,RuslanPiontkivsky,AnjaliShahaniMoreno,JulioVelasco,KatiaVostroknutova,ChristianZambaglioneandGabrielZaourak,AlexanderHaider,andAndrewBurns(allELCMU).AdministrativesupportwasprovidedbyJacquelineLarrabure(ProgramAssistant,LCRCE).YaninaBudkin(SeniorExternalAffairsOf?cer,LCREC),CarlosMolina(OnlineCommunicationsOf?cer,LCREC),RuthId-alinaGonzalezLlamas(SeniorExternalAffairsOf?cer,ECRLC),LeandroJuanHernandez(ExternalAffairsAssociate,ECRLC),GonzaloVillamizar(Consultant,LCRCE),andFranciscoSeminario(Consultant,LCREC)contributedoncommunicationandAlejandroEspinosa(Sonideas)ondesign.ThecutoffdateforthisreportwasSeptember23,2021.Acknowledgements3ContentsRECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSAcknowledgements??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????ExecutiveSummary???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????37CHAPTER1FromDevastationtoanAnemicRecoveryPath11TheOngoingChallengeofCOVID-19???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????13SlowProgressDefeatingCOVID-19????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????13DevastatingHumanCosts???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????16Recovering,withoutTakingO??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????18TheParadoxicalRecovery:AReturntoAnemicGrowthDespiteFavorableTailwinds?????????????????20ChallengestoRecovery????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????23NewCOVID-19Outbreaks?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????23In?ationRisks?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????24FirmArrears,DebtOverhangandFinancialStability??????????????????????????????????????????????26DisappearingFiscalSpace???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????27CHAPTER2RebuildingaDynamic,InclusiveandGreenerEconomyinaConstrainedFiscalEnvironment30TheFiscalChallengetoGrowthandInequality?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????31Growth?NeutralRevenueMobilization???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????31TheGrowthCostsofTaxHikesarenotNecessarilyLargeintheDevelopingWorld??????????????32GainsinSpendingE?ciency???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????34RethinkingSpendingPriorities?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????35A.StrengtheningtheHealthSystem-QuickWinstoImproveandExpandServices??????????????35B.MakingBetterGradesinEducationE?cacyandEquity????????????????????????????????????????36PrimaryandSecondarySchoolsinCrisis??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????37HigherEducation:TheParadoxofLAC’sGenerousbutIne?ectiveHigherEducationalSpending?39C.RepurposingInnovationResources????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????43D.PublicTransfersforEquity:ConvertingShort-TermStimulustoLongTermGrowth????????????454contentsRECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSE.SmartPublicInvestmentinInfrastructure??????????????????????????????????????????????????????46WhatarePerformance-BasedContracts(PBC)????????????????????????????????????????????????????49WhataretheBene?tsofthePBCs?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????494G:AnAmbitiousTollRoadPPPProgram?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????50DigitalInfrastructure:Low-costInvestmentsinGrowth,ResilienceandInclusion??????????????????51F.PoweringaSustainableEnergyFuture?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????52MovingtheEnergyE?ciencyAgendaForward???????????????????????????????????????????????????53Conclusion56References??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????57ListofFiguresFigure1.1:LACLeadstheWorldonCumulativeCon?rmedCOVID-19Deaths??????????????????????????????????????13Figure1.2:COVID-19HitLAEspeciallyHardandRemainsaBarriertoRecovery???????????????????????????????????13Figure1.3:ProgressonCOVID-19VariesbyCountrybutRe?ectsGainsinVaccination?????????????????????????????14Figure1.4:LACisAdvancingonVaccinations,butStillLagsOtherRegions????????????????????????????????????????15Figure1.5:ProgressinVaccinationRatesVariesAcrosstheRegion???????????????????????????????????????????????15Figure1.6:FromLowGrowthtotheWorstRecession?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????16Figure1.7:EmploymentRemainsBelowPre-PandemicLevels????????????????????????????????????????????????????16Figure1.8:WithoutBrazil,PovertyIncreasedSharplyThroughouttheRegion??????????????????????????????????????17Figure1.9:TheHumanDevelopmentIndexRecordedItsLargestDrop????????????????????????????????????????????17Figure1.10:TheRegionSu?eredLargeLossesinLearning-AdjustedYearsofSchooling???????????????????????????18Figure1.11:GDPGrowthRatesHaveBeenRobust????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????18Figure1.12:MostCountriesHaveNotRegainedtheir2019LevelsofIncome???????????????????????????????????????19Figure1.13:MachineLearningEstimatesofBusinessSentimentfromQuarterlyEarningsCallsInvestorsAreShakingO?ConcernsAboutProgressonCOVID-19?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????19Figure1.14:TailwindsinKeyExternalFactors?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????21Figure1.15:GivenFavorableTailwinds,LACShouldHaveGrownFasterin2021???????????????????????????????????21FigureB1:GrowthResponsetoExternalFactors(inpercentagepoints)??????????????????????????????????????????22Figures1.16:MuchoftheSlowdowninActivityWasDuetoVoluntarySelfDistancing?????????????????????????????23Figure1.17:SteeperYieldCurveintheUSMayIndicateHigherIn?ationintheHorizon????????????????????????????24Figures1.18:In?ationinLACisNudgingUpwardandisLargelyDemandDriven??????????????????????????????????25Figure1.19:MuchofthePrivateSectorisinArrears?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????26Figure1.20:LAC’sDebtResolutionMechanismsNeedtoBeStreamlined????????????????????????????????????????26contents52727RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSFigure1.21:WidespreadOverallandPrimaryFiscalDe?cits?????????????????????????????????????????????????????Figure1.22:LargeFiscalE?ortsContinuein2021???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Figure1.23:PublicDebtisontheRise??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????28Figure1.24:AsDebtGrowsSovereignCreditRatingsSlide??????????????????????????????????????????????????????28Figure1.25:SovereignSpreadsRemainedHighDespiteEconomicRecovery?????????????????????????????????????29Figure2.1:AdvancingGrowth,EquityandSustainabilityunderFiscalConstraints??????????????????????????????????31Figure2.2:LACTaxesareSubstantiallyLessthantheOECD????????????????????????????????????????????????????32Figure2.3:TheGrowthE?ectsofRaisingtheVATVarybyCountry??????????????????????????????????????????????32Figure2.4:HigherIncomeTaxesMayHaveNegativeGrowthConsequences????????????????????????????????????33Figure2.5:LatinAmericaTaxesPropertyLessthanComparableCountries??????????????????????????????????????34Figure2.6:LACSu?ersLargeWasteandIne?ciencyinPublicExpenditure??????????????????????????????????????35Figure2.7:15-Year-OldStudentsinLACare,onAverage,ThreeYearsBehindOECDStudentsinReading,Mathematics,andScience?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????37Figure2.8:WideGapsinEducationOutcomesRevealRegressivePatternsofAccessandQuality????????????????38Figure2.9:PublicSubsidiesforSCPStudentsareLowerthanforBachelor’sStudentsinLACCountries????????????41Figure2.10:InLAC,SCPGraduatesAttainBetterLaborMarketOutcomesthanDropoutsfromBachelor’sPrograms41Figure2.11:LACLagsinFirmManagementPracticesNecessarytoInnovate?????????????????????????????????????44Figure2.12:SubjectiveFirmOpinionoftheQualityofScienti?cResearchInstitutionsandtheDegreeofCollaborationofFirmswithUniversities????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????45Figure2.13:SocialTransfersHaveThreeTimestheImpactonOutputinLACasinAdvancedCountries???????????46Figure2.14:InfrastructureInvestmentisCorrelatedwithHigherGrowth,EqualityandCompetitiveness????????????47Figure2.15:PrivateSectorInvestmentHasNotO?settheFallinPublicInfrastructureInvestment?????????????????47Figure2.16:DigitalConnectednessVariesWidelyacrossLAC????????????????????????????????????????????????????51Figure2.17:EnergySubsidiesareHighandRisewithOilPrices??????????????????????????????????????????????????52Figure2.18:LACLagsinReducingEnergyIntensity??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????53ListofBoxesBox1.1.MachineLearning:EarningsCallsTranscriptsO?erEarlyInformationonEconomicTrends???????????????????20Box1.2.AModelofGrowthExplainedbyExternalFactors?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????22Box2.1.Finland:BuildingaWorldClassEducationandResearchSystem??????????????????????????????????????????43Box2.2.ImprovingtheSustainabilityandE?ciencyofRoadExpenditures:Performance-BasedContracting?????????49Box2.3.NewStrategiesforAttractingForeignInvestment:the4Gand5GInfrastructurePPPSchemeinColombia??50Box2.4.GreenHydrogenExportsfromLatinAmerica:aPathwayTowardsaGreen,Resilient,InclusiveEconomicRecovery?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????54ListofTablesTable2.1:Highereducationspendinganddistributionofstudentsacross?elds?????????????????????????????????????39Table2.2:Costsavingsofdi?erentcountriesunderPBCoverconventionalcontracts??????????????????????????????496contentsExecutiveSummaryRECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSLatinAmericaisemergingfromtheCOVID-19crisis,buttherecoveryisweakerthanexpected,andthescarsontheeconomyandsocietywilltakeyearstofade.Theneedtorecoverdynamic,inclusive,andsustainablegrowthtoredressboththelegacyofthepandemicandlong-standingsocialneedshasneverbeenmoreacute.Inturn,despitetheemergenceofsomeindustrial“greenshoots”offeringnewavenuesforgrowth,addressinglong-unattendedagendasthatpreventtheregionfromtakingoffhasneverbeenmoreurgent.Inthisspirit,Chapter1ofthisreportlaysouttherecentsocialandmacroeconomicevolutionoftheregionandthenear-termchallengesitfacesemergingfromthepandemic.Chapter2thenexploresseveraloftheareaswherekeygrowth-advancingreformscouldbeundertakenintheconstrained?scalcontext,focusingespeciallyonspendingmoreef?cientlyandreallocatingresourcestomoreproductiveuses.Thesocialcostsofthepandemichavebeendevastating.Povertyrates,excludingBrazil,measuredat5.5USD/dayrosefrom24to26.7percent,theirhighestincreaseindecades;studentslostbetweenoneandone-and-a-halfyearsofeducation;andthefallintheUNHumanDevelopmentIndexdwarfedthatduringthe?nancialcrisis.Thegoodnewsisthatthevaccinationdrivehaspickedupsteamoverthelastsixmonthsand,whilestillfarfromwhereitneedstobe,COVID-19deathsarefallinginmostcountries.LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean’s(LAC’s)economicrecoveryisstrongerthanpredictedearlierintheyear,butweakerthanfavorabletailwindswoulddictate.Forecastsof2021growthhavebeenup-gradedoverthesummerandregionalgrowthisexpectedtoreach6.3percentfor2021,almostrecoveringthe6.7percentlossesof2020.However,giventherobustrecoveriesintheirprincipaltradingpartners,lowglobalborrowingrates,andtheprospectofanothercommoditysupercycle,growthratesmightbeexpect-edtobe1.5percentagepointshigher.…Andseveralchallengesfacetherecovery:Recurrenceofthevirus.Anyrecurrenceoftheviruswillleadtodeclinesineconomicactivity,notonlybecauseofgovernmentmeasurestoenforcesocialdistancing,butalsobecausehalfofthedeclineinactivityisduetovoluntarydistancingduetofearofthedisease.Tighteningofgloballiquiditytotampdownin?ation.Shouldglobalin?ationpressuresnotprovetemporary,glob-alborrowingrateswillrise,depressingdemandandchallengingbudgetmanagement.Highlevelsofprivatesectordebtandlackofclarityonbankingsolidity.WorldBankPulseSurveyssuggestthatinmanycountries40-60percentof?rmsareinarrearsasaresultofpandemic-drivenfallsinrevenues.Thisoverhangwillinthebestcasedampeninvestment,andintheworstcasecreatezombie?rmsthatareeffec-tivelybankruptbutarestillinoperation.Tothedegreethatbankingsystemsareforbearingdebtpayments,thiscouldalsobecreatingade-transparentizationofthe?nancialsector,wherethetruelevelofnon-per-formingloansinthesystemishardtodiscern.Governmentswillneedtostreamlinepresentlyunwieldlydebtresolutionmechanismsandmonitorsystemicsoundness.Risingbudgetde?cits.Declininggovernmentrevenuesandextraordinaryeffortstoprotectfamiliesand?rmsduringtheCOVID-19pandemichaveledtohighde?cits,andincreaseddebt.Insomecases,thishasledtoratingsdowngradesandpotentiallyraisedborrowingcosts.Inallcases,thereisreducedroomforgovern-mentstoengageingrowthandequitypromotinginvestments.Risingpublicdebt:TheaveragepublicdebttoGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)ratiohasrisendramaticallyovertwoyearsby15pointsto75.38percent,leadingtoreducedabilitytoborrowabroadandcomplicating?scalmanagementgoingforward.executivesummAry7RECOVERINGGROWTH:REBUILDINGDYNAMICPOST-COVID-19ECONOMIESAMIDFISCALCONSTRAINTSTheCOVID-19crisiscameontopofanother“l(fā)ostdecade”oflowgrowth,suggestingdeeperstruc-turalproblems.From2010totheoutbreakofthepandemic,LACgrewat2.2percentperyearwhiletheworldgrewat3.1percent.Theforecastsfor2022and2023aresimilarlylacklusterat2.8and2.6percent,respectively.Thelacklusterrecovery,togetherwiththelowgrowthratesofthepreviousdecadesuggeststructuralproblemsinternaltotheregionandpointtotheurgencyofaddressingthelistoflong-recognizedgrowth-impedinginternalshortfallsininfrastructure,education,energypolicy,?rmcapabilities,andin-novation,whileconfrontingsomenewclimatechangechallenges.Thesituationisnotuniformlybleakacrosscountriesandindustriesandhistorically,greenshootsmayarisefromcrisestriggeringlarge-scaleeconomicrestructuring.Asanexample,whilehospitalityandpersonalserviceshavesufferedgreatly,accelerateddigitizationbroughtaboutbytheneedtosociallydistancecouldhelpboostsectorslikeinformationtechnol