世界銀行-敘利亞經(jīng)濟監(jiān)測2023年夏季：大地震的經(jīng)濟后果（英）

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SYRIAECONOMIC目MONITOR

TheEconomicAftershocksofLargeEarthquakes

Summer2023

SyriaEconomicMonitor

TheEconomicAftershocks

ofLargeEarthquakes

Summer2023

MiddleEastandNorthAfricaRegion

?2023InternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/TheWorldBank

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WashingtonDC20433

Telephone:202-473-1000

Internet:

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iii

TABLEOFCONTENTS

ListofAbbreviations vii

Preface ix

ExecutiveSummary xi

??????????????

x

v

1.

TheEarthquake 1

2.

TheConflict 5

3.

RecentEconomicDevelopments 7

TheSyrianeconomywasalreadyfragilebeforetheearthquake 7

Thedireeconomicsituationdeterioratedfurtheraftertheearthquake 7

Theearthquakedisruptedeconomicactivity 7

TheearthquakeworsenedSyria’stradebalance 10

Currencydepreciationandpriceincreasesbothacceleratedaftertheearthquake 13

Pricechangesvariedconsiderablyacrossregions 14

TheearthquakeexacerbatedSyria’sseverepreexistingchallengeswithhouseholdwelfare 18

Aweakdomesticdisasterresponseisunderminingtherecovery 22

4.

OutlookandRisks 27

SpecialFocus:SyriaEarthquake2023RapidDamageandNeedsAssessment 31

References 35

iv

ListofFigures

Figure1TheEarthquakeCreatedLargeHumanLossesandPhysicalDamagesintheMost

Conflict-AffectedAreasoftheCountry 2

Figure2TheEarthquakeHitEconomicallyImportantAreasofNorthwesternSyria 3

Figure3ConflictEventsandCasualtiesTemporarilyDeclinedaftertheEarthquake,then

QuicklyReturnedtoPreviousLevels 6

Figure4PhysicalDamageSlowedEconomicActivityImmediatelyaftertheEarthquake,

whileReliefEffortsDroveanUnevenRecovery 8

Figure5Mobile-DeviceDataShowaNationwideDecreaseinActivityJustaftertheEarthquake,

FollowedbyaSurgeinActivityinNorthwesternSyriaaMonthLater 9

Figure6TheEarthquakeDamagedInfrastructureandAdverselyAffectedOilProduction 9

Figure7RemotelySensedVegetationIndicesSuggestthattheEarthquakeHadaMinimal

DirectimpactonCropYields 10

Figure8RemotelySensedVegetationIndicesShowStableCropYieldsin2023,withOutput

ConsistentwithPreviousYears 11

Figure9ShippingActivityCametoaHaltaftertheEarthquake,thenResumedasAidand

RecoveryimportsRose,thoughExportsRemainedVeryLow 11

Figure10Cargo-FlightArrivalsSpikedintheWeeksfollowingtheEarthquake,while

Passenger-FlightArrivalsDeclined 12

Figure11AftertheEarthquake,NoIncreaseinActivityWasObservedattheSyria-Türkiye

BorderCrossingsApprovedforAidDelivery 12

Figure12SmugglingActivitybetweenLebanonandSyriaTemporarilySurgedinResponse

toWidespreadSupplyShortagesFollowingtheEarthquake 13

Figure13AftertheEarthquake,theExchangeRateDepreciatedwhilePricesRose 14

Figure14InflationinSyriaReflectsChangesintheParallel,RatherthantheOfficial,ExchangeRate 15

Figure15PriceChangesVariedSubstantiallyacrossZonesofControl 16

Figure16TheDisparitiesinPricesofGoodsIncreasedfollowingtheEarthquake 16

Figure17VariationsinPriceChangesAcrossRegionsWidenedaftertheEarthquake 17

Figure18FollowingtheEarthquake,RentsRoseNationwidebutFellinNorthwestSyria,

PossiblyDuetoDisplacementfromDisaster-AffectedAreas 17

Figure19IncreasedLicitandIllicitFuelTradingisAssociatedwithLowerPricesAlongthe

FuelSupplyChaininGovernment-ControlledAreas 19

Figure20TheEarthquakeDisplacedLargeNumbersofPeoplewithintheirOwnCommunities 21

Figure21AccesstoServicesHasDeclinedsincetheEarthquake,EspeciallyintheMost-

AffectedAreas 21

Figure22TheEarthquakeExacerbatedtheSevereWelfareChallengesFacingAffected

Households,IncreasingtheirRelianceonCopingStrategies 22

Figure23ThePost-DisasterMonthlyAverageofAidTrucksfromTürkiyetoSyriaRemained

Belowthe2022Average 23

Figure24ImprovedAccesstoHumanitarianAidHasBeenLimitedandBrief 24

Figure25FollowingtheEarthquake,theAvailabilityofCashandFoodVouchersIncreased

SubstantiallyinDisaster-AffectedAreas 25

Figure26FollowingtheEarthquake,ArabStatesIncreasedAidtoSyria 30

Figure27TheEarthquakeWasMostSevereinOpposition-ControlledAreas 32

Figure28TheHousingSectorExperiencedtheMostDirectDamage,whileAgriculture

IncurredtheGreatestLosses 33

THEECONOMICAFTERSHOCKSOFLARGEEARTHQUAKES

Figure29EarthquakeDamageandLossesWereConcentratedintheGovernoratesofAleppo

andIdlibandSpreadAcrossMultipleZonesofControl 33

Figure30RecoveryandReconstructionNeedsareConcentratedintheGovernoratesofAleppo

andIdlibandintheAgricultureandHousingSectors

34

ListofTables

Table1SharpleyValueDecompositionofFactorsInfluencingDieselPrices 18

Table2RegressionAnalysisofDieselPriceVariationAcrossSyrianRegions 19

Table3DistributionofIDPsinAffectedAreasbyHousingType 20

Table4MacroeconomicOutlookIndicators 28

ListofBoxes

Box1RecognizingReality:IsInflationDrivenbyChangesinSyria’sOfficialExchange

RateorinItsParallel-MarketRate? 15

Box2ExplainingRegionalDisparitiesinFuelPricesAcrossSyria 18

Box3TheRegionalNormalizationofRelationswithSyria:ImplicationsoftheJordanian

InitiativefortheConflictandtheEconomy 29

v

vii

LISTOFABBREVIATIONS

AANES

AutonomousAdministrationofNorthandEastSyria

MTIGP

Macroeconomics,Trade,and

InvestmentGlobalPractice

ACLED

ArmedConflictLocationEvent

Database

NDVI

NGOs

NormalizedDifferenceVegetationIndexNon-GovernmentalOrganizations

CBS

CentralBankofSyria

NLR

NighttimeLightRadiance

CPI

ConsumerPriceIndex

OCHA

OfficefortheCoordinationof

DMSP

DefenseMeteorologicalSatellite

HumanitarianAffairs

Program

RDNA

RapidDamageandNeedsAssessment

EVI

EnhancedVegetationIndex

SDF

SyrianDemocraticForces

FCV

Fragility,Conflict,andViolence

SIG

SyrianInterimGovernment

GDP

GrossDomesticProduct

SNA

SyrianNationalArmy

HNAP

HumanitarianNeedsAssessment

Program

SSG

SYP

SyrianSalvationGovernment

SyrianPound

HSOS

HumanitarianSituationOverviewinSyria

UAE

UnitedArabEmirates

HTS

HayatTahriral-Sham

UN

UnitedNations

IDPs

InternallyDisplacedPersons

US

UnitedStates

ISIS

IslamicStateofIraqandSyria

US$

UnitedStatesDollar

LAS

LeagueofArabStates

VIIRS

VisibleInfraredImagingRadiometer

MFMod

MacroeconomicandFiscalModel

Suite

MODIS

Moderate-ResolutionImaging

Spectroradiometer

WFP

yoy

WorldFoodProgramme

Year-on-year

ix

PREFACE

T

heSyriaEconomicMonitorisasemi-annualreportdetailingrecenteconomicdevelop-mentsintheSyrianArabRepublicanditsnear-termoutlook.TheSyriaEconomicMonitorisproducedbytheWorldBank’sMacroeconomics,Trade,andInvestmentGlobalPractice(MTIGP)incol-laborationwiththeWorldBankDataLab.ThereportdescribeskeyfeaturesofSyria’smacroeconomicpolicyandsituatestheminthecontextofitsongoingcivilwar.ItalsopresentsfindingsfromrecentWorldBankanalyticalworkonSyria.TheSyriaEconomicMonitorispartofabroadereffortbytheMTIGPtobetterunderstandeconomicandsocialdynamicsincountriesaffectedbyfragility,conflict,andviolence(FCV),whilereflectingtheuniqueconstraintsinvolvedinworkinginanFCVenvironment.

ThisthirdeditionoftheSyriaEconomicMoni-torfocusesonanalyzingtheeconomicimpactoftheearthquakeanditsprojectedimpactonSyria’seco-nomicoutlook.ThiseditionoftheSyriaEconomicMonitorwaspreparedbyateamcomprisingLuanZhao(SeniorEconomist,TaskTeamLeader),PeterSalisbury(SeniorConsultant,Co-Editor),AlbinSza-kola(Consultant),AlejandraQuevedoCardona(Con-sultant),AndresChamorro(Geographer),AnthonyBiswell(Consultant),ArefAlkrez(Consultant),AyazParvez(LeadDisasterRiskManagementSpecial-ist),BennyIstanto(Consultant),CharlJooste(SeniorEconomist),EnkhzayaDemid(Consultant),Stefanini

Vicente(DataScientist),GhizlaneAqariden(Con-

sultant),JoanneMatossian(Consultant),JoyAoun

(SeniorStrategyOfficer),HollyKrambeck(Pro-

gramManager,DataLab),IbrahimJamali(Consul-

tant),MariaRuthJones(SeniorSurveyEconomist),

OlaHisou(Consultant),RobertAndrewMarty(Data

Scientist),SahitiSarva(Consultant),SilviaRedaelli

(SeniorPovertyEconomist),XinyiWang(Consultant),

andYahuiZhao(Consultant).StafffromtheWorld

BankDataLab,includingHollyKrambeck(Project

Lead),AlejandraQuevedoCardona,AndresCham-

orro,BennyIstanto,GabrielStefaniniVicente,Maria

RuthJones,SahitiSarva,andRobertAndrewMarty,

advisedonusingalternativedatatomonitoreconomic

activityinSyriaandpreparedawebsiteentitled,“Sup-

portforWorldBankSyriaEconomicMonitor:Using

AlternativeDatatoUnderstandChangingTrendsin

TradeandEconomicActivity”(

LINK

),whichinformed

theanalysispresentedintheSyriaEconomicMonitor.

Theauthorswouldliketoexpresstheirgratitude

toJeanChristopheCarret(CountryDirector),EricLe

Borgne(PracticeManager),NorbertMatthiasFiess

(LeadEconomist),FatimaShah(Countryprogram

Coordinator),?eljkoBogetic′(LeadEconomist),Nadia

FernandaPiffaretti(SeniorEconomist),andKemoh

Mansaray(SeniorEconomist),KemohMansaray

(SeniorEconomist),andZeinaKhalil(SeniorExternal

AffairsOfficer)fortheirvaluableinputduringtheprep-

arationandreviewprocessforthisreport.Theteam

x

isalsogratefultoZeinaKhalil(SeniorExternalAffairsOfficer),wholedthereport’spublishing,communica-tions,andoutreachstrategy,andtoSeanLothrop(Consultant),whoeditedthefinalversion.SpecialthanksareduetoEkaterinaGeorgievaStefanova(SeniorProgramAssistant)andMabelNomsaMkhize(ProgramAssistant)fortheirexcellentadministrativesupport,andtoAbdullahAlruwaishanfortheArabictranslationoftheExecutiveSummary.TheteamisalsogratefultoRobertW.Reinecke,SalemMassalha,andShehabEl-Dienfortheirassistancewiththeformattinganddesignofthereport,aswellasthevideoandinfographiccontentproducedforitsdissemination.

Thedatacut-offdateforthisSyriaEconomicMonitorwasJune16,2023.Thefindings,interpre-

tations,andconclusionsexpressedintheSyriaEconomicMonitorarethoseofindividualWorldBankstaffanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheExecutiveBoardoftheWorldBankorthegovern-mentstheyrepresent.

FormoreinformationabouttheWorldBank’sactivitiesinSyria,ortodownloadadigitalcopyofthisreport,pleasevisit

/en/co

untry/syria/overview#1

.Forquestionsandcommentsonthecontentofthispublication,pleasecontactEricLeBorgne(

eleborgne@

),NorbertMat-thiasFiess(

nfiess@

),andLuanZhao(

lzhao1@

).MediainquiriesshouldbeaddressedtoZeinaKhalil(

zelkhalil@

).

THEECONOMICAFTERSHOCKSOFLARGEEARTHQUAKES

xi

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

T

welveyearsintoadevastatingcivilwar,aone-in-two-centuryearthquakedevas-tatednorthwesternSyria.The7.6RichterscaleshockwasthedeadliestinSyriaaftertheonethathitAleppoin1822.AmonthaftertheFebru-ary2023earthquake,theWorldBankpublishedaSyriaEarthquake2023RapidDamageandNeedsAssessment(RDNA)1thatprovidesasnapshotofthephysicaldamagescausedbytheearthquakeandthecountry’srecoveryneeds.Ourinterestinthisedi-tionoftheSyriaEconomicMonitor(SEM)istotrackrecenteconomicandsocialdevelopmentsfollowingtheearthquake,andassesstheeconomicoutlookandsurroundingrisks.

Usingnoveldatasources,thisSyriaEconomicMonitoranalyzeswhathappenstoaconflict-affectedeconomyinthemonthsfollow-ingalargenaturaldisaster.Theinteractionsoftwosuchmassiveshocks(onenaturalandtheotherman-made)resultindynamicsandoutcomesthatare,attimes,quitedifferentthanthosethatwouldarisefollowinganaturaldisasterofequalmagnitudeabsentaconflictsetting.Butthereislimitedanalysisofthe(post-immediateearthquake)economicimpactofalargenaturaldisasterinthecontextofactiveandprolongedconflicts.Amainreasonforthislackofanalysisisthepaucityofdatainconflictsettings,anissuethatwehavepartiallyaddressedthroughtheuseofnoveldatasources,suchasbigdata.2

Tobetterunderstandthesecomplex

dynamics,thiseditionoftheSyriaEconomic

Monitorfocusesonanalyzingtheeconomic

impactoftheearthquakeanditsprojectedimpact

onSyria’seconomicoutlook.Beyondthespecific

Syriacontext,webelievethisanalysiscouldalso

helpfillagapintheunderstandingoftheimpactof

largenaturaldisastersinconflict-affectedeconomies.

Thisnewbodyofevidence,inturn,wouldhelprevisit

policyrecommendationsinsuchsettings.

Theearthquakecreatedlargehuman

lossesandphysicaldamagesinthemost

contestedareasofthecountry

TheearthquakeseverelyhitapartofSyriawherea

largeshareofitspopulationandeconomicactivity

1WorldBank.2023.SyriaEarthquake2023–Rapid

DamageandNeedsAssessment.Washington,D.C:

WorldBankGroup.

/cu

rated/en/099093003162314369/P1721710e2b4a60b4

0a5940f0793f8a0d24

.

2Theseincluderemotedatasources,includingnighttime

illumination,shipping-positiondata,traffic-congestiondata,

aviationstatistics,mobile-phonelocationdata,remote-

sensingvegetationindices,andconflict-intensitydata.The

WorldBank’sDataLabhascompiledandmadethisdata

availableonawebsitecalled“SupportforWorldBankSyria

EconomicMonitor:UsingAlternativeDatatoUnderstand

ChangingTrendsinTradeandEconomicActivity”(

LINK

).

xii

werelocated.Theareasexperiencedstrongorhigherlevelsofimpactfromtheearthquakehosted6.6millionSyrians,representingaround31percentofSyria’spop-ulationand17percentofitsGrossDomesticProduct(GDP)in2022,asestimatedusingnighttimeillumina-tion.Ofthe6.6millionSyriansaffected,4.6million(70percent)liveinareasoutsideofSyriangovernmentcontrol.Theaffectedareasalsohousedapproximately3millionInternallyDisplacedPersons(IDPs),or46percentofallIDPsinSyria,resultingfromtheconflict,withavastmajority(94percent)livinginareasoutsideofSyriangovernmentcontrol.

TheearthquakealsoseverelyhitthepartofSyriathatwasthemostintenselycontestedamongthebelligerentsofthemorethandecade-oldcivilwar.Inthepastthreeyears,from2020to2022,35percentofconflict-relateddeathstookplaceinareasthatexperiencedstrongorhigherlevelsofimpactfromtheearthquake.Ofthoseincidents,63percentoccurredinterritorybeyondthecontroloftheSyriangovernment.

Theearthquakecausedmassivehumansufferinganddamages.Approximately6,000peoplewerekilledandanother12,000wereinjuredinSyria.Initialestimatesindicatethattheearthquakealsodis-placedabout600,000people,addingtothe6.8millionSyriansthatwerealreadyinternallydisplacedduetothewar.Intermsofphysicalimpacts,theabove-mentionedRDNAestimatestheimmediateanddirectphysicaldamagesandlosses3atapproximatelyUS$5.2billion,equivalenttoabout10percentofSyria’sGDP.4

Theearthquakehadsignificant

socioeconomicimpacts,exacerbatingpreexistingvulnerabilities

Theearthquakecausedtemporarybutwidespreadeconomicandtradedisruptions.DatagatheredforthisSyriaEconomicMonitortrackingmobiledeviceactivityandnighttimeilluminationtrendsrevealadeclineinmobilityandanationwidecontractionineco-nomicoutputintheaftermathofthedisaster.Nighttimeilluminationdatatrackinggasflaringshowsacontrac-tioninoilproduction.Damagetoroadsandmaritimefacilitieshaltedshippingandcargoarrivalsforatleastoneweekfollowingtheearthquake,asindicatedby

shipping-positiondata.Besides,thedestructionofroadsconnectingAntakyainTürkiyewiththeBabal-Hawa,theonlybordercrossingintoSyriaatthetime,causeddelaysindeliveringhumanitarianassistance.

Theearthquakeacceleratedcurrencydepre-ciationandconsumerpriceinflation.Followingtheearthquake,theSyrianpound(SYP)depreciatedby23percentagainsttheUnitedStates(US)dollar,reachingaboutSYP8,800/US$intheparallelforeignexchangemarketinMay2023.Inflationroseby11per-centbetweenJanuaryandApril2023,5asreducedaccesstogoods,heightenedtransportationcosts,andincreaseddemandfollowingtheinfluxofforeignaidputupwardpressureonprices.

Theearthquake’simpactonpriceswasnotequallydistributed.Pricesrosefarmoresharplyinsomeregionsthaninothers,reflectingtheearthquake’svariedandregionallyspecificeffectsandhighlightingthefragmentednatureoftheSyrianeconomyduetothemultipleareasofcontrol.Astheearthquakedis-ruptedthesupplyoffuelfromTürkiye,fuelpricesrosesignificantlyinearthquake-affectedareasinthenorth-west,whiletheprovisionofsubsidizedheatingdieselinless-affectedgovernment-heldareashelpedmitigatelocalfuelpriceincreases.Rentalcostsroseeveninareasthatwereonlymoderatelyaffectedbytheearth-quake,likelyduetoaninfluxofpeoplefromaffectedregionsinthenorthwest.Foodpricesincreasedacrossthecountry,butthearrivaloffoodaideasedpricepres-suresinearthquake-affectedareas.

ThepreexistingvulnerabilityofSyrianhouseholdshasleftmanyill-equippedtocopewiththelingeringeconomicimpactoftheearthquake.

Surveyresultsindicatethattheadoptionofcopingstrategieslikesellinghouseholditemsandproductive

3Damagereferstotheimpactonthecapitalstockandisquantifiedasthereplacementvalueoftotallyorpartiallydestroyedphysicalassets.Lossesrepresentdisruptionsineconomicflowsasaconsequenceofthedamagedassets.

4Thisestimatedoesnotincludesecond-ordereconomiceffects,suchasincreasedlaborandmaterialscosts—these,andothereconomiccosts,arethefocusofthisSyriaEconomicMonitor.

5ConsumerpriceinflationisproxiedbytheWorldFoodProgramme’s(WFP)minimumfoodbasketpriceindex.

THEECONOMICAFTERSHOCKSOFLARGEEARTHQUAKES

ExEcuTivESuMMARy

assetshasincreasedsincetheearthquake.Accesstohealthservicesandsanitationhasfurtherdeterio-ratedinheavilyaffectedareassincetheearthquake.Reducedaccesstothoseessentialservicesislikelytoworsentheongoingcholeraoutbreakandexposethepopulationtoelevatedrisksfromothercommunicablediseases.

Fundingshortfallandhumanitarian

constraintsimpederesponseefforts

ResponseeffortsinSyriaweredelayedandlaggedthoseinTürkiye.Accordingtomaritimeandcargoflightdata,importsrosemodestlystartinginlateFebruary,likelyreflectinganinfluxofhumanitar-ianaidandimportstosupportpost-disasterrecovery.Meanwhile,increasedlevelsofmobilityandnighttimeilluminationsignaledgreatereconomicactivityinMarch.However,recoveryeffortsinSyrialaggedthoseinTürkiye,whereactivityneartheearthquakeepicenterincreasedsharplysoonafterthedisaster,asevidencedbymobiledevicedata.

Inadequatefundinglimitedresponseefforts.DamascusallocatedamodestemergencyfundofUS$7million(lessthan0.1percentofGDP).Limitedfiscalresourceshavealsoconstrainedtheresponseofauthoritiesinnon-regime-heldareas.ByMay2023,theUnitedNations(UN)hasreceivedroughlyUS$1billioninfundingunderitsSyriaEarthquakeFlashAppealandSyriaHumanitarianResponsePlan.DespitetheUS$7.1billioningrantspledgedthisyearattheBrusselsconferences,theriskofasignificantshortfallpersists,giventhatpreviousroundsallocatedonlyaboutathirdforprogramminginsideSyria.Overall,byMay2023,fundingstillfallsconsiderablyshortoftheUS$7.9bil-lioninreconstructionandrecoveryneedsestimatedbytheWorldBank.

Internaldivisionsandalackofautho-rizedbordercrossingshinderedhumanitarianresponseefforts.BetweenFebruaryandMay2023,themonthlyaverageofaidtruckstravelingfromTürkiyetoSyriaremainedabout5percentlowerthanthemonthlyaverageobservedin2022.Despitetheresumptionofhumanitarianaid,nighttimeillumina-tiondatashownosignificantincreaseinactivityattheSyria-Türkiyebordercrossingsauthorizedforaiddeliveryaftertheearthquake.

EarthquakeunderminesSyria’seconomicoutlook

RealGDPisprojectedtocontractby5.5percentin2023,surpassingthepre-earthquakeestimateof3.2percent.Theeconomymaycontractfurtherifreconstructioneffortsfailtomeetexpectations.Thisriskisheightenedbyalackofpublicresources,lowlevelsofprivateinvestment,andacombinationofphysicalobstaclesandsecuritychallengesthatpreventhumanitarianassistancefromreachingsomeoftheaffectedareas.

Syria’senduringconflictislikelytoexacer-batetheearthquake’slong-termsocioeconomicimpact,andviceversa.Peoplelivinginfragility,con-flict,andviolence(FCV)-afflictedcontextslikeSyria’sareamongthemostvulnerabletonaturaldisasterswhentheyoccur.Thesecontextsnotonlyunderminedisasterpreparednessbutalsoposesignificantphysi-calbarriers,hinderingaccesstodisaster-affectedareasandtheprovisionofrecoverysupport.Conflictsandearthquakesbothdestroyfixedcapitalanddegradehumancapital.Thisproduceslarge,sustainednega-tiveeffectsonproductivityinthelongerrun.Continuedmonitoringofkeyeconomicindicatorsmayprovideinsightintohowconflictandnaturaldisastersinteracttoinfluenceeconomicoutcomes.

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??????????????

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??????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 1822.??????????????????????/??????2023???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????2023???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????.???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????.

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?????????????.?????????6.6?????????????????