金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告

ChapterOutline3.1TheFinancialMarketEconomy3.2MakingConsumptionChoicesOverTime3.3TheCompetitiveMarket3.4TheBasicPrinciple3.5PracticingthePrinciple3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision3.7CorporateInvestmentDecision?Making3.8SummaryandConclusions金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第1頁3.1TheFinancialMarketEconomyIndividualsandinstitutionshavedifferentincomestreamsanddifferentintertemporalconsumptionpreferences.Becauseofthis,amarkethasarisenformoney.Thepriceofmoneyistheinterestrate.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第2頁TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExampleConsideradentistwhoearns$200,000peryearandchoosestoconsume$80,000peryear.Hehas$120,000insurplusmoneytoinvest.Hecouldloan$30,000toeachof4collegeseniors.Theyeachpromisetopayhimbackwithinterestaftertheygraduateinoneyear.DentistStudent#1Student#2Student#3Student#4$30,000$30,000$30,000$30,000$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第3頁TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExampleRatherthanperformingthecreditanalysis4times,hecouldloanthewhole$120,000toafinancialintermediaryinreturnforapromisetorepaythe$120,000inoneyearwithinterest.Theintermediaryinturnloans$30,000toeachofthe4collegeseniors.Student#1Student#2Student#3Student#4$30,000$30,000$30,000Bank$120,000Dentist$30,000$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$30,000×(1+r)$120,000×(1+r)金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第4頁TheFinancialMarketEconomy:ExampleFinancialintermediationcantakethreeforms:SizeintermediationIntheexampleabove,thebanktookalargeloanfromthedentistandmadesmallloanstothestudents.TermintermediationCommercialbanksfinancelong-termmortgageswithshort-termdeposits.RiskintermediationFinancialintermediariescantailortheriskcharacteristicsofsecuritiesforborrowersandlenderswithdifferentdegreesofrisktolerance.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第5頁MarketClearingThejobofbalancingthesupplyofanddemandforloanablefundsistakenbythemoneymarket.Whenthequantitysuppliedequalsthequantitydemanded,themarketisinequilibriumattheequilibriumprice.Thepriceofmoneyistheinterestrate.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第6頁3.2MakingConsumptionChoicesoverTimeAnindividualcanalterhisconsumptionacrosstimeperiodsthroughborrowingandlending.Wecanillustratethisbygraphingconsumptiontodayversusconsumptioninthefuture.Thisgraphwillshowintertemporalconsumptionopportunities.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第7頁IntertemporalConsumptionOpportunitySet$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayApersonwith$95,000whofacesa10%interestratehasthefollowingopportunityset.Onechoiceavailableistoconsume$40,000now;investtheremaining$55,000;consume$60,000nextyear.$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000Consumptionatt+1金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第8頁IntertemporalConsumptionOpportunitySet$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Anotherchoiceavailableistoconsume$60,000now;investtheremaining$35,000;consume$38,500nextyear.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第9頁TakingAdvantageofOurOpportunities$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Aperson’spreferenceswilltendtodecidewhereontheopportunitysettheywillchoosetobe.Ms.PatienceMs.Impatience金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第10頁ChangingOurOpportunities$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000$0$20,000$40,000$60,000$80,000$100,000$120,000ConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1Ariseininterestrateswillmakesavingmoreattractive……andborrowinglessattractive.Consideraninvestorwhohaschosentoconsume$40,000nowandtoconsume$60,000nextyear.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第11頁3.3TheCompetitiveMarketInacompetitivemarket:Tradingiscostless.InformationaboutborrowingandlendingisavailableTherearemanytraders;noindividualcanmovemarketprices.Therecanbeonlyoneequilibriuminterestrateinacompetitivemarket—otherwisearbitrageopportunitieswouldarise.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第12頁3.4TheBasicPrincipleThebasicfinancialprincipleofinvestmentdecisionmakingisthis:Aninvestmentmustbeatleastasdesirableastheopportunitiesavailableinthefinancialmarkets.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第13頁3.5PracticingthePrinciple:ALendingExampleConsideraninvestmentopportunitythatcosts$50,000thisyearanprovidesacertaincashflowof$54,000nextyear.Isthisagooddeal?Itdependsontheinterestrateavailableinthefinancialmarkets.Theinvestmenthasan8%return,iftheinterestrateavailableelsewhereislessthanthis,investhere.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$50,000$54,000金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第14頁3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecisionConsideraninvestorwhohasaninitialendowmentofincomeof$40,000thisyearand$55,000nextyear.Supposethathefacesa10-percentinterestrateandisofferedthefollowinginvestment.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$25,000$30,000金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第15頁3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayOurinvestorbeginswiththefollowingopportunityset:endowmentof$40,000today,$55,000nextyearanda10%interestrate.Onechoiceavailableistoconsume$15,000now;investtheremaining$25,000inthefinancialmarketsat10%;consume$82,500nextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$15,000$90,000金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第16頁3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayAbetteralternativewouldbetoinvestintheprojectinsteadofthefinancialmarkets.Hecouldconsume$15,000now;investtheremaining$25,000intheprojectat20%;consume$85,000nextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$85,000$15,000$90,000Withborrowingorlendinginthefinancialmarkets,hecanachieveanypatternofcashflowshewants—anyofwhichisbetterthanhisoriginalopportunities.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第17頁3.6IllustratingtheInvestmentDecision$0ConsumptiontodayNotethatwearebetteroffinthatwecancommandmoreconsumptiontodayornextyear.$0$99,000Consumptionatt+1$55,000$82,500$40,000$85,000$15,000$101,500$101,500=$15,000×(1.10)+$85,000$92,273=$15,000+$85,000÷(1.10)$90,000$92,273金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第18頁NetPresentValueWecancalculatehowmuchbetteroffintoday’sdollartheinvestmentmakesusbycalculatingtheNetPresentValue:.CashinflowsTimeCashoutflows01-$25,000$30,000金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第19頁3.7CorporateInvestmentDecision?MakingShareholderswillbeunitedintheirpreferenceforthefirmtoundertakepositivenetpresentvaluedecisions,regardlessoftheirpersonalintertemporalconsumptionpreferences.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第20頁CorporateInvestmentDecision?MakingConsumptiontodayConsumptionatt+1PositiveNPVprojectsshifttheshareholder’sopportunitysetout,whichisunambiguouslygood.AllshareholdersagreeontheirpreferenceforpositiveNPVprojects,whethertheyareborrowersorlenders.金融市場與凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告第21頁3.7CorporateInvestmentDecision?MakingInreality,shareholdersdonotvoteoneveryinvestmentdecisionfacedbyafirmandthemanagersoffirmsneeddecisionrulestooperateby.Allshareholdersofafirmwillbemadebetteroffifmanag