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Chapter24:FloatingExchangeRatesandInternalBalance

FloatingExchangeRates

Onewayofachievingthegoalsofexternalbalanceandinternalbalanceisto:Letthemarket-drivenvariationsinexchangerates“automatically”takecareofexternalbalanceDirectmacroeconomicpolicytowardtheproblemofinternalbalance?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.2?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.3EffectsofExpandingtheMoneySupplywithFloatingExchangeRatesExpansionaryMonetaryPolicywithFloatingExchangeRates?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.4MonetaryExpansionwithandwithoutCurrencyDepreciation?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.5Thecentralbankofthecountrylowersinterestratesbyonepercentagepoint.EffectsofExpansionaryFiscalPolicywithFloatingExchangeRates?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.6ExpansionaryFiscalPolicywithFloatingExchangeRates?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.7ShockstotheEconomyInternalShocksDomesticmonetaryshocksDomesticspendingshocksInternationalCapital-FlowShocksInternationalTradeShocks?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.8DomesticMonetaryShocksAdomesticmonetaryshockaffectstheequilibriumrelationshipbetweenmoneysupplyandmoneydemand,causingashiftintheLMcurve.Achangeinthecountry’smonetarypolicyisanexampleofsuchashock.Ifthemonetaryshocktendstoexpandtheeconomy,thentheexchange-ratevalueofthecountry’scurrencytendstodepreciate,furtherincreasingdomesticproduct(orputtingadditionalupwardpressureonthecountry’spricelevelorinflationrate)?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.9DomesticSpendingShocksDomesticspendingshocksalterdomesticexpenditure,causingashiftintheIScurve.Achangeinfiscalpolicyisanexample.Theeffectofthiskindofshockondomesticproductdependsonwhichchangesmore,internationalcapitalflowsorthecountry’scurrentaccount,becauseoftheimplicationsforthechangeintheexchangeratevalue.?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.10InternationalCapital-FlowShocksInternationalcapital-flowshocksoccurbecauseofchangesininvestors’perceptionsofeconomicandpoliticalconditionsinvariouscountries.Altersthecountry’sfinancialaccount,sotheFEcurveshifts.Pressureforachangeintheexchangeratevalue.?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.11AnAdverseInternationalCapital-FlowShock?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.12InternationalTradeShocksAninternationaltradeshockchangesthecountry’sexportsorimports.BoththeIScurveandFEcurveshift.Withfloatingexchangerates,theeffectsofinternationaltradeshocksoninternalbalancearemitigatedbytheeffectsoftheresultingchangeintheexchangerate.Forexample,anadversetradeshocktendstodepreciatethecountry’scurrency,andthisreversessomeoftheeffectsoftheshock.?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.13AnAdverseInternationalTradeShock?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.14?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.15RankingofExchange-RateSystemsbyUnitImpactsofVariousExogenousShocksonDomesticProductandIncome*Ifinternationalcapitalflowsarerelativelyunresponsivetointerestratechanges(lowcapitalmobility).?TheinducedexchangeratechangewithfloatingexchangeratesshiftstheFEcurvebacktowarditsoriginalposition.InternalImbalanceandPolicyResponsesShockstotheeconomyalterboththeinternationalperformanceofthecountry’seconomyanditsdomesticperformance.Withfloatingexchangeratesachangeintheexchangeratetakescareofachievingexternalbalancefollowingashock.Ifthecountry’soverallpaymentstendtogointodeficit,thenthecountry’scurrencydepreciates,reversingthetendencytowarddeficit.Ifthecountry’soverallpaymentstendtosurplus,thenappreciationreversesthetendencytosurplus.Monetarypolicyorfiscalpolicycanbeusedtoaddressinternalimbalance.?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.16InternationalMacroeconomicPolicyCoordinationThepoliciesadoptedbyonecountryhaveeffectsonothercountries.Apolicychangethatbenefitsthecountrymakingitmayharmothercountries.Acountrymayfailtomakeapolicychangethatbenefitsothercountries.Inprinciple,internationalmacroeconomicpolicycoordinationcanimprovecombinednationaleconomicperformance.Inpractice,majorinstancesofsuchcoordinationarerare.?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.17U.S.TradeDeficits?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.18U.STradeDeficits?2016McGraw-HillEducation.AllRightsReserved.19GlobalCrisisIntheaftermathoftheglobaleconomicandfinancialcrisis,even(shortterm)interestratesofzerocouldnotpropeltheU.S.economybacktowardinternalbalance(alowunemploymentrate):Liquiditytrap.U.S.Fedturnedtoquantitativeeasing,buyingandholdingmassive

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