聯(lián)合國糧農(nóng)組織（FAO）：緬甸糧食安全形勢：2023年下半年可能較當(dāng)前更為嚴(yán)峻

ISSN2707-1723

31July2023

GIEWSUpdate

TheRepublicoftheUnionofMyanmar

Thecurrentcriticalfoodinsecuritysituationcoulddeterioratein

thesecondhalfof2023

Highlights

>Thecurrentfoodinsecuritysituationiscriticalduetoreducedagriculturalproductionin2022,intensifiedconflict,recordhighfoodpricesandthedevastatingeffectsofCycloneMocha.

>Theconflicttriggeredrecord-highciviliandisplacements,currentlyestimatedat1.83millionpeople,athree-foldincreasecomparedtothesameperiodin2022.

>Foodinsecuritycouldworsenifconstrainedaccesstofertilizerandintensifiedconflictpersist,andiftheforecastofbelow-averagemonsoonprecipitationisrealized,thusreducingcerealproductionin2023.

Acutefoodinsecurityisatcriticallevelsinvariouspartsofthecountry,mainlyduetotheshortfallsin2022cerealproduction,intensifiedconflictandrecordhighfoodprices.AccordingtotheHumanitarianResponsePlan(HRP)publishedlastJanuary,ithehighest

prevalenceandseverityofacutefoodinsecuritywasreportedinnorthwesternandsoutheasternareas,includingRakhine,Chin,KayahandKayinstatesaswellastheSagaingandMandalayregions(Map1).Sincemid-2022theconflictincreasedinintensity

Map1:Myanmar–Acutefoodinsecurityprevalenceandseveritybyregionandstate,2023

Source:OCHA.2023.MyanmarHumanitarianNeedsOverview2023.UNOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs.15January2023.

https://reliefweb.

int/report/myanmar/myanmar-humanitarian-needs-overview-2023-january-2023#:~:text=A%20total%20of%2017.6%20million,those%20in%20need%20

are%20children

.

GIEWS

globalinformationandearlywarningsystemonfoodandagriculture

andspreadtovariouspartsofthecountry,causinglarge-scaledisplacement,disruptingtradeflowsandlimitingaccesstohumanitarianassistance.AccordingtotheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees(UNHCR),asofJune2023,arecordhighof1.83millionpeopleareinternallydisplaced(IDPs),iiathree-foldincreasecomparedtothesameperiodin2022(Figure1)withmostofthembeingalmostentirelyreliantonhumanitarianaid.Inaddition,1.12millionpeoplesoughtshelterinneighbouringcountries,mostlyinBangladeshinCox’sBazarDistrictandontheislandofBhasanChar.On14May2023,CycloneMocha,aCategory5eventwithstrongwindsandheavyrains,madelandfallinnorthwesternpartsofthecountry,triggeringflashfloods,andaffectingthelivelihoodsofatleast3.4million

people.iii

ThemostseverelyaffectedareasweretheRakhine,ChinandKachinstatesaswellastheSagaingandMagwayregions,where60percentoftheIDPsarelocated.Foodsecurityconditionscoulddeterioratefurtherifconstrainedaccesstofertilizers,persistinglocalinsecurityandiftheforecastbelow-average2023monsoonprecipitationisrealizedresultinginlowercerealproductionin2023.Giventhecriticalfoodinsecurityconditions,animmediatescalingupofongoingfoodandlivelihoodhumanitarianassistancetothemostvulnerablehouseholdsisurgentlyneeded.Supportfortheongoing2023mainagriculturalseasonshouldbeprovidedtofarminghouseholdstoenhancetheirproductivecapacity.

Below-average2022cerealoutputanduncertainprospectsfor2023crops

Harvestingofthe2022secondaryseasoncropsfinalizedinlateJuneandthe2022aggregatecerealproductionisestimatedat24.7milliontonnes,about8percentbelowthefive-yearaverage.Thispoorperformanceismainlyduetolowyieldscausedbyreducedavailabilityandhighpricesofinputs,particularlyagrochemicals.LocalizeddamagestostandingcropswerereportedinnorthwesternpartsofthecountryduetothepassageofCycloneMocha.AccordingtoanearlyFAOpreliminaryanalysis,basedonremotesensingdata,about330000hectaresofcropswereaffected,mostlyinRakhineStateandSagaing

Region.iv

Theseincludeready-to-beharvestedsecondaryricecrops,greenandblackgram,andsesamecrops,plantedatthe

beginningofMay.

Intheseareas,earlyassessmentsindicateextensivedamagetohousingandcriticalagriculturalinfrastructure,destructionoffisheriesassetsaswellaslossesoflivestock,standingcropsandhouseholds’foodreserves.

Cerealproductionprospectsfor2023crops,currentlybeingplantedforharvestattheendoftheyear,areuncertain.Althoughhighcerealpricesmayencouragefarmerstoincreasetheareaplanted,theshortageandtheelevatedpricesofagriculturalinputsarelikelytopersist,potentiallycurtailingcropyields.Farmers’abilitytoaccessagriculturalinputsislikelytobeconstrainedalsobytheirlimitedfinancialresources

Figure1:Myanmar–Displacementtrends,March2021–May2023

Source:Author'sownelaborationbasedondatafromUNHCR,May2023.

/myanmar-emergency-regional-update

.

2

andaccesstoformalcredit.Inaddition,weatherforecastsfortheAugust–October2023monsoonseasonindicateahighlikelihoodofbelow-averagerainfallamountsinnorthernpartsofthe

country,v

whichcouldadverselyaffectcropproduction.

Surgingpricesconstrainaccesstofood

Reflectingtightavailability,duetothebelow-average2022cerealoutputandconflict-relateddisruptionstomarkets,pricesofdomesticallygrowncerealshavebeenontherisesinceearly2022.Exacerbatedbyhighpricesofagriculturalinputsandhightransportcosts,domesticpricesof“Emata”rice,awidelyconsumedquality,reachedrecordhighsinJune2023,nearlytriplingthealreadyhighlevelsfromayearearlier(Figure2).Pricesofgroundnutsanddifferenttypesofpulses,importantsourcesofproteininthelocaldiet,alsoincreasedsinceearly2022and,inJune2023,theywerebetween30and80percenthigheryear-on-year

andatrecordornear-recordlevels.Similarly,pricesofawiderangeofimportedbasicfooditems,includingwheatflour,cookingoils,meatanddairyproducts,wereatrecordornear-recordlevelsinJune2023.Pricelevelswereunderpinnedbyreducedavailabilityinlocalmarketsfollowingbelow-averagelevelsofimportssince2022,constrainedbythecountry’sgenerallylowimportcapacitylinkedtothesignificantdepreciationofthekyat.

Thelowavailabilityoffoodcommoditiesandtheirrecordpriceshaveadirectimpactonhouseholds’foodsecurity.Inruralareas,thebelow-averagecerealproductionin2022resultedinearlydepletionoffoodstocksandseverelyaffectedfinancialgainsoffarmers,pushingmanyhouseholdstoresorttocopingstrategies,suchassellingproductiveassetsandincurringdebttopayforfood,whichmaycompromiselivelihoodsinthemediumterm.

Figure2:Myanmar–Wholesalepricesof"Emata"riceinYangonmarket,June2021–June2023

Source:Author'sownelaborationbasedondatafromeTRADEMyanmar,2023.

.mm/

.

3

Notes

i.OCHA,HCT

.2023

.HumanitarianResponsePlanMyanmar.HumanitarianProgrammeCycle2023.Myanmar.January2023.

/sites/default/files/2023-01/mmr_humanitarian_

response_plan_2023%20final.pdf.

ii.UNHCR

.

2023.MyanmarEmergencyUpdate.UNHCRRegionalBureauforAsiaandPacific(RBAP).1May2023.

/myanmar-emergency-regional-update

.

iii.OCHA

.

2023.Myanmar:CycloneMochaFlashAppeal,May2023.HumanitarianCountryTeam.

23May2023.

/report/myanmar/myanmar-cyclone-mocha-flash-appeal-may-2023

.

iv.FAO

.

2023.TropicalcycloneMocha,Myanmar.TheimpactoftropicalcycloneMochaonagricultureand

livelihoods.FAOMyanmarandDIEM-Impactassessment.15May2023.

https://data-in-emergencies.fao.

org/apps/a97314f4fec34a448721f320829acfbe/explore

.

v.IRI

.

2023.Jul2023ClimateForecastDiscussionfortheperiodAug–OctthroughNov–Jan2024.NOAA's

ClimateProgramOfficeandColumbiaUniversity.15May2023.

/our-expertise/

climate/forecasts/seasonal-climate-forecasts/

.

4

ThisreportwaspreparedbytheGlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystem(GIEWS)oftheMarketsandTradeDivisionofFAO.Theupdatesfocusondevelopinganomalousconditionsaimedatprovidingearlywarnings,aswellaslatestandmoreelaborateinformationthanotherGIEWSregularreportsonthefoodsecuritysituationofcountries,atbothnationalandsub-nationallevels.Noneoftheinformationinthisreportshouldberegardedasstatementsofgovernmentalviews.

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