房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)報(bào)告 -中東房地產(chǎn)展望-2023

IntelligentInvestment

2023

MarketOutlook

REPORT

CBRERESEARCH

IntelligentInvestmentRealEstateMarketOutlook|MiddleEast

2CBRERESEARCH?2023CBRE,INC.

Contents

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

MacroeconomicOutlook

Offices

Residential

Hotels

Retail

Industrial&Logistics

InvestmentYieldsGuide

IntelligentInvestmentRealEstateMarketOutlook|MiddleEast

3CBRERESEARCH?2023CBRE,INC.

KeyTakeaways

01

02

03

04

05

MACROECONOMIC

TheeconomiesofGCCcountriesareexpectedtocontinuetorecordstrongratesofgrowthin2023.Boththehydrocarbonandnon-hydrocarbonsectorsareexpectedtocontinuetoprovidematerial

contributionstoheadlinegrowthrates.TheaverageGDPgrowthacrossGCCcountriesin2023issettoreach2.7%

REALESTATEPROJECTS

TotalvalueofrealestateprojectsplannedorunderwayintheGCCcurrentlystandsat$1.36trillion.SaudiArabiaaccountedfor64.5%ofthistotal,equatingtoaround$877billionworthofprojects.ThisisfollowedbytheUAE,whereits$293billionworthofprojectsaccountsfor21.6%ofthetotal.

OFFICES

StronglevelsofeconomicgrowtharecontinuingtoattractoccupierstotheregionwithbothSaudiArabiaandtheUAEbeingkeybeneficiaries.Withsupplybeingconstrainedinthesetwomarkets,weexpectrentalratestocontinuetogrow.Inothermarkets,acombinationofsubdueddemandand

excesssupplywillmeanrentalgrowthislikelytoremainanemic.

RESIDENTIAL

Residentialmarketsintheregionwilllikelyseesomewhatfragmentedperformancein2023,supplyglutsincertainmarketswilldrivedownperformance,whereaslackofsupplyinkeybusinesshubssuchasDubaiandRiyadhislikelytomeanthesemarketsoutperform.

HOTELS

Weexpectthatthiswillbethefirstfullyearwhichdoesnothavepandemicrelatedrestrictionsandasaresult,inmostparts,weforecastthatKPIswillcontinuetoimproveandwillbyyear-endalmost

uniformlysurpass2019levels.

01

Macroeconomic

Outlook

TheeconomiesofGCCcountriesareexpectedtocontinuetorecordstrong

ratesofgrowthin2023.Boththehydrocarbonandnon-hydrocarbonsectorsare

expectedtocontinuetoprovidematerialcontributionstoheadlinegrowthrates.

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Macroeconomic

Outlook

-TheaverageGDPgrowthacrossGCCcountriesin2023issettoreach2.7%

-Therateofinflationisforecasttoeasefrom3.9%to2.4%

-Oilpricesareforecasttoremainatelevatedlevelsat$86/pbandproductionisexpectedtoremainsteady,providingsignificantfiscalbuffersfortheregiontoachieveitsdiversificationtargets

-Totalvalueofrealestateprojectsplannedor

underwayintheGCCcurrentlystandsat$1.36trillion

Boththehydrocarbonandnon-hydrocarbonsectorshaveseenstrongratesof

recoveryoverthecourseofthelastyear,witheconomicgrowthintheGCCregionnoticeablyoutpacingtheglobalaverageduring2022.Overthisperiod,economicgrowthinGCCcountriesrecordedanaveragegrowthrateof6.3%.

Aswemoveinto2023,GDPgrowthinGCCcountriesisexpectedtoreach2.7%.

Headlinegrowthrateshavebeenreviseddownoverthecourseofthelastquarterof2022;thishasbeenprimarilyduetoweakergrowthexpectationsinthehydrocarbonsectorsbroughtonbywhatisexpectedtobeaweakerglobaleconomicbackdropin2023.Although,there-openingoftheChineseeconomy,amajortradingpartnerfortheregion,maymeanhigherthanexpectedgrowthwithinthissector.Withregardstothenon-hydrocarbonsectors,growthoutlookshaveremainedrelativelysteadfast

and,insomecases,haveevenbeenrevisedhigher.

InflationarypressuresinGCCcountries,whichwererelativelytamecomparedtotheglobalaverage,areexpectedtodissipate,withtheaveragerateofinflationexpectedtofallto2.4%in2023.Formostcountries,theprojectedrateofinflationin2023willnowbeinlinewiththeirhistoricaverage.

In2022,Employmentlevelsincreasedby3.3%onaverage,althoughwhentakingintoaccounthigherfrequencyeconomicindicators,weestimatethatthisrateofgrowthislikelytoregisteratamuchhigherrate.Lookingatemploymentgrowthinto2023,weexpectthepaceofgrowthtoremainrelativelyrobustoverthecourseofthecomingyearat1.9%.OnlyQatarisexpectedtorecordadeclineinemploymentlevels,down

0.1%,somethingwhichwastobeexpectedfollowingtheculminationoftheFIFA

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MacroeconomicOutlook

WorldCup.InthelikesofBahrain,SaudiArabiaandtheUAE,

employmentgrowthisexpectedtoregisterat2.2%,2.0%and2.6%respectively.

Oilpriceshavereachedanaverageof$98.7/pbin2022,theirhighestlevelinalmostadecade.Alongsidethis,wehavealsoseenoil

productioninKuwait,SaudiArabiaandtheUAEshowamarkedincreaseforthefullyear.Oilpricesareexpectedtoremainat

elevatedlevels,forecastedat$86p/bin2023,andproductionisexpectedtoremainsteady.Thiswillprovideastrongfootingtoregionaleconomies.

Thiseconomicbackdropisexpectedtocontinuetoprovidethe

supportrequiredforregionaleconomiestoworktowardstheir

economicdiversificationtargets.Realestateprojectsandassociatedsectorssuchasthehotelsandindustrial,logisticsand

manufacturingsectorswillplayacentralroleinthisdiversificationdrive.Assuch,todate,thetotalvalueofrealestateprojects

currentlyplannedorunderconstructioncurrentlystandsatan

estimated$1.36trillion.SaudiArabiaaccountsfor64.5%ofthistotalorsome$877billion,followedbytheUAE,whichat$293billion,

accountsfor21.6%ofthetotal.Bahrain,Kuwait,OmanandQatarshare1.7%,4.4%,4.6%and3.3%ofthetotalrespectively.

Whilstthislevelofinvestmentinrealestateisacorepartofa

numberofcountries'diversifcationstrategies,thecontinued

developmentandeasingofregulationswillbecrucialinsupportingtheseinitiatives.Assuch,weexpectthattheeaseofdoingbusinessandthestringencyoflong-termresidencyvisaregulationsare

expectedtofurtherimproveacrossanumberofGCCcountriesinthecomingyear.

Figure1:GCCCountries,GDP,YoY%Change

Source:CBREResearch/OxfordEconomics

Figure2:GCCCountries,Inflation,YoY%Change

Source:CBREResearch/OxfordEconomics

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MacroeconomicOutlook

Figure3:GCCCountries,Employment,YoY%Change

Source:CBREResearch/OxfordEconomics

Figure4:OilPrices,US$perBarrel

0

141516171819202122232425

year

Source:CBREResearch/Macrobond/OxfordEconomic

Figure5:GCCCountries,ProjectsPipeline,US$,Billions

Kuwait

$604.4%

Oman

$63 4.6%

UAE—

$293

21.6%

Bahrain$221.7%

Qatar

$44

3.3%

SaudiArabia

$877

64.5%

Source:CBREResearch/MEEDProjects

02

Offices

Stronglevelsofeconomicgrowtharecontinuingtoattractoccupierstothe

regionwithbothSaudiArabiaandtheUAEbeingkeybeneficiaries.Withsupply

beingconstrainedinthesetwomarkets,weexpectrentalratestocontinueto

grow.Inothermarkets,acombinationofsubdueddemandandexcesssupplywill

meanrentalgrowthislikelytoremainanemic.

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Riyadh

AbuDhabi

Dubai

Riyadh

Dammam

Jeddah

Khobar

Khobar

2023

Offices

performanceintheGCC'soffcemarketwasrelativelyupbeatover

thecourseof2022.

InBahrain,theprimeandGradeAmarketssawratesremainstable.Despitenewdevelopmentsscheduledtobedeliveredoverthe

courseof2023,weanticipatetheoccupancyrate,whichcurrentlystandsat74.0%,tickingupandrentalratestoremainstable.

OccupieractivityinSaudiArabiawillcontinuetobecentred

towardsRiyadh,wheretheaverageoccupancyratesitsat99.0%.

Withalackofexistingsupplyandstrongpre-leasingactivitytakingplaceinnewprojectswhicharenotscheduledfordeliveryinthe

immediatefuture,weexpectthatrentalratesthisyearwillcontinuetoincrease,albeitataslowerratethantheprioryear.InJeddahandtheEasternProvince,weforecastthatGradeArentalgrowthwill

slowandreachaplateaurespectively.

IntheuAE,AbuDhabi'sofficemarketwillstarttoseeincreased

levelsofactivity,which,alongsideconstrainedlevelsofnewsupply,willunderpinfurtherrentalgrowth.However,wedoenvisagethat

thisrateofgrowthwillslow.InDubai'sofficemarket,thecurrent

occupancyratestandsat88.0%,upfrom78.8%ayearearlier.Withalimitedamountofnewqualitysupplyscheduledtobedelivered

overthecourseofnextyear,weexpectthatrentalrateswill

continuetoincreaseinallsegmentsofthemarket,albeitatslowerratesthanwehaveseenin2022.Whilstoccupierdemandislikelytoremainunwavering,thelackofsupplymayhampermarketactivityoverthecourseoftheyear.

Figure6:OfficeRents,US$perSquareMetreperAnnumandYoY%Change,2022

25.2%

118%

5.8%

.

12.1%

15%

8.8%

14.0%

0.0%

.7.4%

6.2%13.2%

79%

0.0%

.

0.0%

00%

.

Source:CBREResearch

Figure7:GCC,OfficeRentsTracker,PrimeandGradeAOffices

Bahrain

AbuDhabi

Dammam

Jeddah

Bahrain

Dubai

2022

03

Residential

Residentialmarketsintheregionwilllikelyseesomewhatfragmented

performancein2023,supplyglutsincertainmarketswilldrivedown

performance,whereaslackofsupplyinkeybusinesshubssuchasDubai

andRiyadhislikelytomeanthesemarketsoutperform.

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ResidentialPrices

priceperformanceintheGCC'sresidentialsectorwasfragmented

in2022.First,onapositivenote,wherewehaveseenpricesdecline,ithasbeenrelativelymarginal.However,pricegrowthinDubaiandRiyadhhavesignificantlyoutpacedtheregionalaverage.

In2022,theUAEwastheonlymarkettorecordpricegrowthand

transactionvolumegrowthacrossallcitiesandsectors.InDubai,

whilstwedoexpecttransactionvolumestosoftenyear-on-year,weexpectthatpriceswillcontinuetoincrease,acrossboththe

apartmentandvillasegmentsofthemarket,albeitataslowerrate.InAbuDhabi,weareforecastinggrowthinboththevolumeof

transactionsandtherateofpricegrowthoverthecourseofthecomingyear.

InBahrain,villapricesareexpectedtorecordlow-singledigitpricegrowth.Intheapartmentsegmentofthemarket,givennew

launchesandexistinglevelsofsupply,pricesareforecasttodecreasemoresubstantially.

InSaudiArabia,priceperformanceinboththeapartmentandvillasegmentofthemarketisforecasttobecomemorepolarisedoverthecomingyear.Villapricesareexpectedtocontinuetoincrease,albeitatslowerrates,whereasapartmentpricesarelikelyto

continuetosoften.However,wedonotanticipatethistrend

occurringinRiyadh,wheretherateofpricegrowthisexpectedtomoderate.

Figure8:AverageSalesPrices,US$perSquareMetreYoY%Change,2022

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

1,500

BahrainRiyadhJeddahDammamkhobarAbuDhabiDuba

Source:CBREResearch

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

IntelligentInvestmentRealEstateMarketOutlook|MiddleEast

12CBRERESEARCH?2023CBRE,INC.

1.3%

N/A

0.5%

N/A

Bahrain

2022

ResidentialRents

Onparwithtrendsinitssalesmarket,inBahrain,weareexpectingvillarentstoincreasemarginallyin2023,whereas,overthesameperiod,averageapartmentsrentsareforecasttodecreasefurther.

Duba'sresidentialrentsreachedtheirhighestlevelonrecordin

2022.Throughoutthisperiod,averageapartmentrentsincreasedby27.1%,andaveragevillarentsroseby24.9%.Demandhasalsoincreasedsignificantlywiththenumberoftenancycontracts

registeredincreasingby10.8%year-on-year,however,new

registrationsfellby7.0%.In2023,rentsinDubaiwillcontinueto

increaseuniformly,howeverwewillnotseethishappenatthesamepace.

Finally,inAbuDhabi,inthevillasegmentofthemarket,weexpectthattherateofgrowthislikelytoremainpositive,althoughwill

remaininthelowsingledigits.Intheapartmentsegmentofthe

market,weareforecastingforpositiverentalgrowthtoreturnoverthecourseoftheyear,however,thegrowthrateswillnotbe

material.

Figure9:AverageRentalRates,US$perSquareMetreandYoY%Change,2022

27.1%

24.9%

Source:CBREResearch

Figure10:GCC,ResidentialRentsTracker

Bahrain

AbuDhabi

Dubai

AbuDhabi

Dubai

2023

04

Hotels

Weexpectthatthiswillbethefirstfullyearwhichdoesnothavepandemic

relatedrestrictionsandasaresult,inmostparts,weforecastthatKPIswill

continuetoimproveandwillbyyear-endalmostuniformlysurpass2019levels.

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Hotels

onthewhole,in2022,theGCC'shotelsectorcontinuedtorecordincreasing

Figure11:GCC,Hotel,KPIs

visitationnumbers,higherADRsandultimatelyhigherRevPARs.Giventhatthiswillbethefirstyearthatdoesnothaveanypandemicrelatedrestrictions,weforecastthatKPIswill,byyear-end,almostuniformlysurpass2019levels.Thatbeingsaid,

therewillbeheadwindsforthesectortonavigate,includingbutnotlimitedtoa

slowdowninglobaleconomicgrowth,astrongUSdollarandthematerialisationofnewsupply.Thesefactorswillimpactcountryandcitymarketsbyvaryingdegrees.

InBahrain,giventhenumberofhotelopeningsinthefive-starmarketsegment,we

expectthatthissectorislikelytoseeKPIssoften.Hotelsinthefour-starmarket,

particularlythoseinproximitytoretailandleisureassets,areexpectedtooutperformthewidermarket.

Thefull-scalereturnofreligioustourismwillcontinuetodriveoccupancyintheHolyCitiesandJeddah.MoresoacrosstheKingdom,withthematerialisationofluxuryandultra-luxurydevelopments,wearealsolikelytoseeanuptickinADRs.InRiyadhandDammam,thereturnofcorporatetourism,whichformsamaterialpartofdemandinthesemarkets,willhelpliftoccupancyratesinthesemarkets.

IntheUAE,althoughweexpectedoccupancyratestocontinuetoincrease,we

forecastthatADRswillsoftenoverthecourseoftheyear,whichwillputpressureonRevPARs.Thebeachfrontluxurysegmentofthemarketisexpectedtocontinue

registeringoutperformance,bothintermsofoccupancyandADRs.

Kuwaitislikelytoseeoccupancyratescontinuetoimprovesteadilythroughouttheyear,however,wedoexpecttheADRsgrowthtobelimited.oman'SCOVID-19

restrictionswerearguablythestrictestandlongestlastingintheregion.Giventhis,

oman'shotelmarketperformanceisstillverymuchinitsrecoveryphase,anddueto

thislowbase,weexpectstrongKPIstoberecordedthroughout2023.AftertheFIFA

worldcup2022,unsurprisingly,weexpectQatar'skplstosoftenamidstthe

dramaticallyhighersupplyandrecentlyannouncedregulatorydynamics.

RevPAR

Year-on-Year2022vs2019

(US$)

86.284.179.278.263.357.5115.493.893.865.135.4117.992.999.2112.4121.984.9137.5

RasAl-

91.6

Khaimah

51.368.896.3

Bahrain

Manama

Kuwait

KuwaitCity

Oman

Muscat

Qatar

DohaCentre

SaudiArabia

AlKhobar

Dammam

Jeddah

Makkah

Medina

Riyadh

UAE

AbuDhabi

Dubai

39.6%41.2%23.4%32.7%75.4%81.2%62.8%57.4%67.2% -7.8%-10.8%30.4%229.0%185.2%32.3%27.8%25.6%29.7%

-2.3%

32.3%0.1%13.7%

6.6%

6.8%

8.7%

10.5%

9.7%

11.8%

-10.0%

-9.6%

17.2%

-2.5%

-8.0%

6.2%

35.9%

33.7%

3.9%

5.4%

2.2%

7.1%

-1.4%

4.6%3.4%-1.1%

21.1%22.1%-4.7%-4.1%38.7%37.3%91.2%81.7%17.9%-3.6%4.1%16.2%34.2%41.9%24.0%18.2%21.7%17.1%

0.0%

23.6%-5.3%15.2%

172.5167.3208.0206.6136.9117.8202.6151.4160.4119.373.9206.5153.1147.9181.9170.4122.0188.7

148.6

72.9108.2120.2

-36.9%-35.3%-30.1%-13.8%-5.8%-11.7%-5.8%

-11.1%

-15.8%10.2%-1.7%

-0.8%-1.2%5.5%1.3%-1.8%-3.8%-1.8%

-10.3%

3.1%5.0%3.8%

-17.6%-7.2%4.0%10.9%22.9%2.5%25.7%

4.4%

15.7%17.0%21.1%

-13.7%

-13.4%

5.6%

-0.6%

-40.3%

-47.9%

1.4%

12.6%

-24.4%

7.5%

6.4%

4.0%

1.3%

-14.3%

-24.2%

97.3%

103.6%

-3.6%

-5.6%-5.6%-13.8%-13.1%-9.7%-8.2%-9.4%-4.1%-1.0%

Sharjah

Fujairah

Ajman

RevPAR%Change

RevPAR%Change

Year-on-Year2022vs2021

OccPPChange

OccPPChange

ADR%Change

ADR%Change

ADR(US$)

2022

2022

-

-

-

-

-

-

Source:CBREResearch/STRGlobal

05

Retail

seeingmarkedimprovementsinoccupancyandrents,somethingweexpectto

continue.Performanceinsecondaryassetsremainsrelativelysubdued,with

manyrequiringrepositioning.

IntelligentInvestmentRealEstateMarketOutlook|MiddleEast

16CBRERESEARCH?2023CBRE,INC.

Bahrain

AbuDhabi

2022

Retail

Foranumberofyears,theretailsectorintheGCChasbeenunderconsiderablepressureintermsofperformance.Thishaslargely

beendrivenbyexcesssupplyand,toapoint,byincreasinglevelsofe-commercepenetration.Thepandemicexertedevenmore

complicationsandpressures.Tothesector'scredit,ithas

weatheredthesechallengesandeven,insomecases,hasreturnedwithstrongerfundamentals.

InBahrain,inthesecondhalfof2022,wehaveseenoccupancylevelsstarttoincrease.Furthermore,withconsumersnow

preferringtoreturntotraditionalbricksandmortarretail,we

expectthatoccupancyislikelytoedgeupoverthecourseof2023.Wealsoareanticipatingthataftersharpdeclinesinrentalratesinrecentyears,wearenearoratthebottomofthemarket.

TheuAE'sretailmarkethasbeenoperatingatvaryingperformance

levelsoverthecourseofthelastyear,withrentalratesinAbu

DhabiandDubaiincreasingby5.6%and51.5%,respectively.

Lookingahead,weexpectthatwewillseeaconvergencein

performance,withAbuDhabilikelytoseerentalgrowthaccelerateandDubailikelytoseeconsiderablemoderation.InAbuDhabi,

manyretailershavedelayedexpansionplansduetotheprolongedCOVID-19restrictionswhichwereinplaceinthecapitalin2022,wearelikelytoseemanyrevisittheseplans.InDubai,particularlyin

thePrimesegmentsofthemarket,duetoalackofavailablesupply,andaboveallintheF&Bsector,wemayseeactivitylevelstaper-offduringtheyear.

Finally,onecommonthemeacrosstheregionisthesubdued

performanceinsecondaryassets.Goingforward,akeyrequisiteforthistoimprovewillbecapitalexpendituresandassetrepositioning.

Figure12:AverageRetailRents,US$perSquareMetre,PerAnnumandYoY%Change,2022

51.5%

5.6%

0.0%

Source:CBREResearch

Figure13:GCC,RetailRentsTracker

AbuDhabi

Bahrain

Dubai

Dubai

2023

06

Industrial&

Logistics

Demandwillcontinuetooutstripsupply,bothfrominvestorsandoccupiers,and

despitenewsupplybeingdelivered,weexpectrentstocontinuetheirupward

trajectory.

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2023

Industrial&Logistics

TheGCC'sindustrialandlogisticssectoroverrecentyearshas

garneredaconsiderablelevelofoccupierandinvestorinterest.

However,ithasatthesametimealsobeenthemostundersuppliedintermsofsuitablestock,whichhasheldbackbothoccupierandinvestmentactivityconsiderably.Thisbackdrophasmeantthat

averagerentshaveincreasedinthevastmajorityofmarketsoverthecourseofthelastyear.

Withrelianceontheassetclassexpectedtoonlyincrease,wefeelthatthesectorwillcontinuetorecordrentalgrowthunanimo