風(fēng)電設(shè)備行業(yè)版塊三季度業(yè)績總結(jié)

10Nov2023風(fēng)電設(shè)備版塊三季度業(yè)績總結(jié)熱點(diǎn)速評FlashAnalysis(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)風(fēng)電設(shè)備版塊營收穩(wěn)步增長，整體盈利能力下滑。本次風(fēng)電設(shè)備版塊統(tǒng)計(jì)涵蓋風(fēng)機(jī)、鑄鍛件、塔筒管樁等27家上市公司，2023Q1-3季度合計(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)營收1311.84億元，同比增長8.63%，較2022年?duì)I收小幅回升，歸母凈利潤為75.63億元，同比下降達(dá)29.71%，反應(yīng)出行業(yè)競爭加劇的趨勢。2023Q1-3版塊綜合毛利率為18.23%，較2022年增加0.11pct，凈利率為5.86%，較2022年下滑0.74pct，權(quán)益收益率ROE為4.12%，較2022年大幅下滑3.18pct，資產(chǎn)收益率ROA為1.59%，較2022年下滑1.4pct，整個(gè)版塊盈利能力受到2021年海風(fēng)搶裝結(jié)束進(jìn)入真空期的影響，產(chǎn)能快速擴(kuò)張，裝機(jī)放緩，競爭加劇，盈利能力不斷下滑。風(fēng)機(jī)版塊營收增速有所修復(fù)，受風(fēng)機(jī)中標(biāo)價(jià)格下降影響，毛利率下滑較大。5家A股整機(jī)上市公司包括金風(fēng)科技、明陽智能、三一重能、運(yùn)達(dá)股份、電氣風(fēng)電2023Q1-3實(shí)現(xiàn)營收749.23億元，同比增長4.8%，實(shí)現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤31.19億元，同比下降達(dá)58.11%。各風(fēng)機(jī)企業(yè)2023Q1-3綜合毛利率均出現(xiàn)不同程度下滑，主要原因是風(fēng)機(jī)中標(biāo)價(jià)格不斷下滑，風(fēng)機(jī)大型化帶來的成本分?jǐn)傂?yīng)小于價(jià)格下降對利潤的侵蝕，當(dāng)前風(fēng)機(jī)中標(biāo)價(jià)格已經(jīng)企穩(wěn)，陸上風(fēng)機(jī)不含塔筒中標(biāo)均價(jià)約為1500元/kW上下波動，海上風(fēng)機(jī)含塔筒中標(biāo)價(jià)格在3600元/kW左右，其中國電投16GW海上風(fēng)機(jī)招標(biāo)均價(jià)在2577.7元/kW-3400元/kW之間，海上風(fēng)機(jī)價(jià)格堅(jiān)挺，我們認(rèn)為，隨著海風(fēng)裝機(jī)起量，風(fēng)電運(yùn)營業(yè)務(wù)營收占比不斷提升，風(fēng)機(jī)企業(yè)綜合毛利率將在2024H1迎來迎來邊際改善，風(fēng)機(jī)企業(yè)盈利能力將觸底回升。海纜版塊歸母凈利潤超營收增速，盈利能力維持較強(qiáng)水平。我們統(tǒng)計(jì)了7家海纜生產(chǎn)企業(yè)，包括第一梯隊(duì)東方電纜、中天科技、亨通光電和第二梯隊(duì)寶勝股份、起帆電纜、漢纜股份、太陽電纜。2023Q1-3實(shí)現(xiàn)營收1406.8億元，同比增長6.5%，營收增速較2022年提升5.7pct，歸母凈利潤增速為15.4%，增速超過營收。雖然2022年和2023年進(jìn)入海風(fēng)真空期，營收增速較搶裝期低，但是海纜由于競爭格局較好，毛利率依舊穩(wěn)定，特別是第一梯隊(duì)，在高電壓等級電纜領(lǐng)域競爭力較強(qiáng)，隨著海上風(fēng)電軍事、航道等營收逐漸得到解決，海風(fēng)裝機(jī)將起量，我們預(yù)計(jì)2024年海風(fēng)裝機(jī)10GW以上，較2023年裝機(jī)增速超66.7%。鑄鍛件版塊營收穩(wěn)增長，歸母凈利潤增速最快。鑄鍛件包括主軸、輪轂、機(jī)架、軸承座、定轉(zhuǎn)子等。2023Q1-3期間9家鑄鍛件企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)營收197.6億元，同比增長8.7%，超行業(yè)營收增速，實(shí)現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤16.78億元，同比增長36.9%，行業(yè)最高，鑄鍛件企業(yè)受海風(fēng)裝機(jī)放緩影響較小，同時(shí)出口更優(yōu)，在風(fēng)機(jī)大型化加速趨勢下，大兆瓦鑄鍛件出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性供應(yīng)偏緊，版塊增速及盈利能力在風(fēng)電設(shè)備行業(yè)中處于領(lǐng)先地位。塔筒管樁版塊營收增速最快，盈利能力修復(fù)明顯。6家塔筒管樁上市企業(yè)2023Q1-3實(shí)現(xiàn)營收218.7億元，同比增長34%，在風(fēng)電設(shè)備版塊中增速最快，僅次于2020年陸上風(fēng)電搶裝增速，歸母凈利潤為18.5億元，同比增長27.9%，由于陸上風(fēng)電裝機(jī)占比較高，因此2023年海上風(fēng)電裝機(jī)不及預(yù)期對塔筒管樁企業(yè)影響較小，同時(shí)由于2023年產(chǎn)能利用率較2022年有大幅提升，版塊毛利率改善明顯，增速同比大幅提升，我們預(yù)計(jì)2023年塔筒管樁版塊盈利能力將維持高水平。投資建議：建議關(guān)注頭部海纜企業(yè)如【東方電纜】、鑄鍛件企業(yè)如【金雷股份】、【日月股份】、塔筒管樁企業(yè)【大金重工】、【泰勝風(fēng)能】等等。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：政策落實(shí)不及預(yù)期，原材料價(jià)格大幅上漲，市場競爭加劇等。10Nov2023210Nov2023310Nov2023410Nov20235APPENDIX1InvestmentHighlights：Therevenueofthewindpowerequipmentsectorhassteadilyincreased,andtheoverallprofitabilityhasdeclined.Thewindpowerequipmentsectorincludes27listedcompanies.Duringthethirdquarterof2023,theyachievedatotalrevenueof131.884billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof8.63%.Thenetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanywas7.563billionyuan,ayear-on-yeardecreaseof29.71%,reflectingthetrendofintensifiedindustrycompetition.Thecomprehensivegrossprofitmarginof3Q2023was18.23%,anincreaseof0.11pctcomparedto2022,andanetprofitmarginof5.86%,adecreaseof0.74pctcomparedto2022.TheROEofequitywas4.12%,asignificantdecreaseof3.18pctcomparedto2022.TheROAofassetswas1.59%,adecreaseof1.4pctcomparedto2022.Theprofitabilityoftheentiresectionwasaffectedbyrapidexpansionofproductioncapacity,slowerinstallation,intensifiedcompetition,andacontinuousdeclineinprofitability.Therevenuegrowthofthewindturbinesectorhasbeenrepaired,andthegrossprofitmarginhassignificantlydecreasedduetothedecreaseinwindturbinebiddingprices.Fivewindturbine’slistedcompaniesachievedatotalrevenueof74.923billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof4.8%,andanetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyof3.119billionyuan,ayear-on-yeardecreaseof58.11%.Thecomprehensivegrossprofitmarginofvariouswindturbineenterpriseshasshownvaryingdegreesofdeclinefrom1Qto3Q2023.Currently,thebiddingpricesofwindturbineshavestabilized,withtheaveragebiddingpriceofonshorewindturbinesexcludingtowersfluctuatingaround1500yuan/kW,andtheaveragebiddingpriceofoffshorewindturbinesincludingtowersisaround3600yuan/kW,Theaveragebiddingpriceforthe16GWoffshorewindturbineofChinaPowerInvestmentisbetween2577.7yuan/kW-3400yuan/kW.Webelievethatwiththeincreaseinoffshorewindinstallation,theproportionofwindpoweroperationrevenuewillcontinuetoincrease,andthecomprehensivegrossprofitmarginofwindturbineenterpriseswillexperiencemarginalimprovementin2024H1.Thenetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyofthesubmarinecablesectorexceededtherevenuegrowthrate,andtheprofitabilitywasmaintainedatastronglevel.7submarinecableproductionenterprisesachievedarevenueof140.68billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof6.5%.Therevenuegrowthrateincreasedby5.7pctcomparedto2022,andthenetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyincreasedby15.4%,exceedingtherevenuegrowthrate.Although2022and2023enteredtheseabreezevacuumperiod,thegrossprofitmarginofsubmarinecablesremainsstableduetothegoodcompetitivelandscape,especiallythefirsttier,whichhasstrongcompetitivenessinthefieldofhigh-voltagecables.Withthegradualresolutionofrevenuefromoffshorewindpower,military,andshippingchannels,thenumberofoffshorewindinstallationswillincrease.Weexpectthattheinstalledcapacityofoffshorewindin2024willexceed10GW,withagrowthrateexceeding66.7%comparedto2023.Therevenueofthecastingandforgingsectorhassteadilyincreased,withthefastestgrowthrateofnetprofitattributabletotheparentcompany.Castingsandforgingsincludespindle,wheelhub,frame,bearingseat,statorandrotor,etc.DuringtheperiodfromQ1toQ32023,9castingandforgingenterprisesachievedarevenueof19.76billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof8.7%,exceedingtheindustry'srevenuegrowthrate.Theyachievedanetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyof1.678billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof36.9%,thehighestintheindustry.Castingandforgingenterpriseswerelessaffectedbytheslowdowninoffshorewindinstallation,andtheirexportswerebetter.Therefore,thegrowthrateandprofitabilityofblocksareinaleadingpositioninthewindpowerequipmentindustry.Therevenuegrowthrateofthetowerandpilesectionisthefastest,andtheprofitabilityhasbeensignificantlyrestored.Sixlistedcompaniesoftowertubepilesachievedarevenueof21.87billionyuanfromQ1toMarch2023,ayear-on-yearincreaseof34%.Theyhavethefastestgrowthrateinthewindpowerequipmentsector,withanetprofitattributabletotheparentcompanyof1.85billionyuan,ayear-on-yearincreaseof27.9%.Duetothehighproportionofonshorewindpowerinstallation,theimpactofoffshorewindpowerinstallationin2023ontowertubepilecompaniesisrelativelysmallcomparedtoexpectations,andduetothesignificantincreaseincapacityutilizationin2023comparedto2022,Thegrossprofitmarginofthesectionhassignificantlyimproved.Weexpecttheprofitabilityofthetowertubepilesectiontomaintainahighlevelthrough2023.Investmentsuggestion:ItissuggestedtopayattentiontotopsubmarinecableenterprisessuchasOrientWires&Cable;castingandforgingenterprisessuchasJinlei;RiyueHeavyIndustry;towerpipepileenterprisessuchasDajinHeavyIndustry,TaishengWindPowerEquipment,etc.Risks:less-than-expectedpolicies,rawmaterialpricesrisesignificantly,fiercecompetition,etc.6下下 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