CFA特許金融分析師-CFA二級-EquityValuation

CFA特許金融分析師-CFA二級-EquityValuation共享題干題CátiaPinhoisasupervisorintheequityresearchdivisionofSui（江南博哥）teSecurities.PinhoasksFláviaSilveira,ajunioranalyst,tocompleteananalysisofAdesivoS.A.,EnviadoS.A.,andGesticularS.A.PinhodirectsSilveiratouseavaluationmetricthatwouldallowforameaningfulrankingofrelativevalueofthethreecompanies’shares.Exhibit1providesselectedfinancialinformationforthethreecompanies.SilveirareviewsunderlyingtrailingEPSforAdesivo.AdesivohasbasictrailingEPSofBRL0.84.SilveirafindsthefollowingnoteinAdesivo’sfinancialstatements:“Onapersharebasis,Adesivoincurredinthelastfourquartersi.fromalawsuit,anon-recurringgainofBRL0.04;andii.fromfactoryintegration,anon-recurringcostofBRL0.03andarecurringcostofBRL0.01inincreaseddepreciation.”SilveiranotesthatAdesivoisforecastedtopaysemiannualdividendsofBRL0.24nextyear.Silveiraestimatesfive-yearearningsgrowthratesforthethreecompanies,whicharepresentedinExhibit2.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutthepossibleuseoftheprice-to-salesratio(P/S)inassessingtherelativevalueofthethreecompanies.SilveiratellsPinho:Statement1TheP/Sisnotaffectedbyrevenuerecognitionpractices.Statement2TheP/SislesssubjecttodistortionfromexpenseaccountingthanistheP/E.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]1.BasedonPinho’sdirectiveandthedatafromthelastfourquarterspresentedinExhibit1,thevaluationmetricthatSilveirashoulduseisthe:A.price-to-earningsratio(P/E).B.production-to-demandratio(P/D).C.earnings-to-priceratio(E/P).正確答案：C參考解析：TheE/Pbasedontrailingearningswouldofferthemostmeaningfulrankingoftheshares.UsingE/PplacesGesticular’snegativeEPSinthenumeratorratherthanthedenominator,leadingtoamoremeaningfulranking.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]2.BasedonExhibit1andthenotetoAdesivo’sfinancialstatements,thetrailingP/EforAdesivousingunderlyingEPSisclosestto:A.17.7.B.18.2.C.18.4.正確答案：C參考解析：TheEPSfigurethatSilveirashoulduseisdilutedtrailingEPSofR$0.81,adjustedasfollows:1.SubtracttheBRL0.04non-recurringlegalgain.2.AddBRL0.03forthenon-recurringfactoryintegrationcharge.NoadjustmentneedstobemadefortheBRL0.01chargerelatedtodepreciationbecauseitisarecurringcharge.Therefore,underlyingtrailingEPS=BRL0.81–BRL0.04＋BRL0.03=BRL0.80andtrailingP/EusingunderlyingtrailingEPS=BRL14.72/BRL0.80=18.4.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]3.BasedonExhibits1and2,whichcompany’ssharesarethemostattractivelypricedbasedonthefive-yearforwardP/E-to-growthratio(PEG)?A.AdesivoB.EnviadoC.Gesticular正確答案：A參考解析：TheforwardPEGforthethreecompaniesarecalculatedasfollows:ForwardP/E=Stock’sCurrentPrice/ForecastedEPSForwardPEG=ForwardP/E/Expectedearningsgrowthrate(inpercentageterms)AdesivoforwardP/E=BRL14.72/BRL0.91=16.18AdesivoforwardPEG=16.18/16.67=0.97EnviadoforwardP/E=BRL72.20/BRL3.10=23.29EnviadoforwardPEG=23.29/21.91=1.06GesticularforwardP/E=BRL132.16/BRL2.85=46.37GesticularforwardPEG=46.37/32.33=1.43AdesivohasthelowestforwardPEGof0.97,indicatingthatitisthemostundervaluedofthethreeequitiesbasedontheforwardPEGratio.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]4.WhichofSilveira’sstatementsconcerningtheuseoftheP/Siscorrect?A.Statement1onlyB.Statement2onlyC.BothStatement1andStatement2正確答案：B參考解析：Statement2iscorrectbecausesales,asthetoplineoftheincomestatement,arelesssubjecttoaccountingdistortionormanipulationthanareotherfundamentals,suchasearnings.Statement1isincorrectbecausesalesfigurescanbedistortedbyrevenuerecognitionpractices,inparticularthosetendingtospeeduptherecognitionofrevenues.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]5.WhichofSilveira’sstatementsconcerningtheFedandYardenimodelsiscorrect?A.Statement3onlyB.Statement4onlyC.BothStatement3andStatement4正確答案：C參考解析：TheFedmodelconsiderstheequitymarkettobeundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.TheYardenimodelincorporatestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex,avariablemissingintheFedmodel.PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]6.BasedonExhibit4,Gesticular’sEV/EBITDAmultipleisclosestto:A.11.4.B.13.7.C.14.6.正確答案：B參考解析：TheEVforGesticulariscalculatedasfollows:EV=Marketvalueofdebt＋Marketvalueofcommonequity＋Marketvalueofpreferredequity–Cashandshort-terminvestmentsEV=BRL1,733million＋BRL6,766million＋BRL275million–BRL581million–BRL495million=BRL7,698millionEV/EBITDA=BRL7,698million/BRL560million=13.7PinhoasksSilveiraaboutusingtheFedandYardenimodelstoassessthevalueoftheequitymarket.Silveirastates:Statement3TheFedmodelconcludesthatthemarketisundervaluedwhenthemarket’scurrentearningsyieldisgreaterthanthe10-yearTreasurybondyield.Statement4TheYardenimodelincludestheconsensusfive-yearearningsgrowthrateforecastforthemarketindex.Silveiraalsoanalyzesthethreecompaniesusingtheenterprisingvalue(EV)-to-EBITDAmultiple.SilveiranotesthattheEBITDAforGesticularforthemostrecentyearisBRL560millionandgathersotherselectedinformationonGesticular,whichispresentedinExhibit4.PinhoasksSilveiraabouttheuseofmomentumindicatorsinassessingthesharesofthethreecompanies.Silveirastates:Statement5Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformanceduringaperiodwiththeperformanceofsomegroupofequitiesoritsownpastperformance.Statement6Inthecalculationofstandardizedunexpectedearnings(SUE),themagnitudeofunexpectedearningsistypicallyscaledbythestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts.[單選題]7.WhichofSilveira’sstatementsconcerningmomentumindicatorsiscorrect?A.Statement5onlyB.Statement6onlyC.BothStatement5andStatement6正確答案：A參考解析：Relative-strengthindicatorscompareanequity’sperformancewiththeperformanceofagroupofequitiesorwithitsownpastperformance.SUEisunexpectedearningsscaledbythestandarddeviationinpastunexpectedearnings(notthestandarddeviationofanalysts’earningsforecasts,whichisusedinthecalculationofthescaledearningssurprise).BrunoSantosisanequityanalystwitharegionalinvestmentbank.SantosreviewsthegrowthprospectsandqualityofearningsforPhoneutriaEnterprises,oneofthecompanieshefollows.Hehasdevelopedastockvaluationmodelforthisfirmbasedonitsforecastedfundamentals.Hisrevenuegrowthrateestimateislessthanthatimpliedbythemarketprice.Phoneutria’sfinancialstatementsoverthepastfiveyearsshowstrongperformance,withaboveaveragegrowth.Santoshasdecidedtousealowerforecastedgrowthrateinhismodels,reflectingtheeffectof“regressiontothemean”overtime.Henotestworeasonsforhislowergrowthrateforecast:Reason1Successfulcompaniestendtodrawmorecompetition,puttingtheirhighprofitsunderpressure.Reason2Phoneutria’sintellectualpropertyandfranchiseagreementswillbeweakeningovertime.SantosmeetswithWalterHartmann,anewlyhiredassociateinhisdepartment.Intheirconversation,Hartmannstates,“Securityanalystsforecastcompanyperformanceusingbothtop-downandbottom-upanalysis.Icanthinkofthreeexamples:1Arestaurantchainforecastsitssalestobeitsmarketsharetimesforecastindustrysales.2AnelectricutilitycompanyforecaststhatitssaleswillgrowproportionaltoincreasesinGDP.3Aretailfurniturecompanyforecastsnextyear’ssalesbyassumingthatthesalesinitsnewlybuiltstoreswillhavesimilarsalespersquaremetertothatofitsexistingstores.”Hartmannisreviewingsomepossibletradesforthreestocksinthehealthcareindustrybasedonapairs-tradingstrategy.Hartmann’sevaluationsareasfollows:●HGHealthis15%overvalued.●CorgentCellSciencesis10%overvalued.●JohnsonLabsis15%undervalued.[單選題]8.BasedonSantos’srevenuegrowthrateestimate,thesharesofPhoneutriaaremostlikely:A.undervalued.B.fairlyvalued.C.overvalued.正確答案：C參考解析：Iftherevenuegrowthrateinferredbythemarketpriceexceedsthegrowthratethatthefirmcouldreasonablyexpect,Santosshouldconcludethatthemarketpriceistoohighandthusthatthefirmisovervalued.[單選題]9.WhichofthereasonsgivenbySantosmostlikelyjustifiesareductioninPhoneutria’sforecastedgrowthrate?A.Reason1onlyB.Reason2onlyC.BothReason1andReason2正確答案：C參考解析：Increasedcompetitionforsuccessfulfirmscancausearegressiontothemeanofacompany’sgrowthrate.Expiringandweakeningintellectualpropertyandfranchiseagreementscanalsoreducepotentialgrowth.[單選題]10.WhichofHartmann’sexamplesofcompanyperformanceforecastingbestdescribesanexampleofbottom-upforecasting?A.RestaurantchainB.ElectricutilitycompanyC.Retailfurniturecompany正確答案：C參考解析：Theretailfurniturecompanyforecastingsalesbasedonsalespersquaremeterisanexampleofbottom-upforecastingbecauseitaggregatesforecastsatamicroleveltolarger-scaleforecasts.[單選題]11.Basedonhistradingstrategy,whichofthefollowingshouldHartmannrecommend?A.ShortHGHealthandCorgentCellSciencesB.BuyJohnsonLabsandCorgentCellSciencesC.BuyJohnsonLabsandshortCorgentCellSciences正確答案：C參考解析：Pairstradinginvolvesbuyinganundervaluedstockandshortinganovervaluedstockinthesameindustry.HartmannshouldbuyJohnsonLabs(15%undervalued)andshortCorgentCellSciences(10%overvalued).RyanLeighispreparingapresentationthatanalyzesthevaluationofthecommonstockoftwocompaniesunderconsiderationasadditionstohisfirm’srecommendedlist,EmeraldCorporationandHoltCorporation.LeighhaspreparedpreliminaryvaluationsofbothcompaniesusinganFCFEmodelandisalsopreparingavalueestimateforEmeraldusingadividenddiscountmodel.Holt’s2019and2020financialstatements,containedinExhibits1and2,arepreparedinaccordancewithUSGAAP.LeighpresentshisvaluationsofthecommonstockofEmeraldandHolttohissupervisor,AliceSmith.Smithhasthefollowingquestionsandcomments:1“IestimatethatEmerald’slong-termexpecteddividendpayoutrateis20%anditsreturnonequityis10%overthelongterm.”2“WhydidyouuseanFCFEmodeltovalueHolt’scommonstock?CanyouuseaDDMinstead?”3“HowdidHolt’sFCFEfor2020comparewithitsFCFFforthesameyear?IrecommendyouuseanFCFFmodeltovalueHolt’scommonstockinsteadofusinganFCFEmodelbecauseHolthashadahistoryofleveragechangesinthepast.”4“Inthelastthreeyears,about5%ofHolt’sgrowthinFCFEhascomefromdecreasesininventory.”LeighrespondstoeachofSmith’spointsasfollows:1“IwilluseyourestimatesandcalculateEmerald’slong-term,sustainabledividendgrowthrate.”2“TherearetworeasonswhyIusedtheFCFEmodeltovalueHolt’scommonstockinsteadofusingaDDM.ThefirstreasonisthatHolt’sdividendshavedifferedsignificantlyfromitscapacitytopaydividends.ThesecondreasonisthatHoltisatakeovertargetandoncethecompanyistakenover,thenewownerswillhavediscretionovertheusesoffreecashflow.”3“IwillcalculateHolt’sFCFFfor2020andestimatethevalueofHolt’scommonstockusinganFCFFmodel.”4“Holtisagrowingcompany.InforecastingeitherHolt’sFCFEorFCFFgrowthrates,Iwillnotconsiderdecreasesininventorytobealong-termsourceofgrowth.”[單選題]12.Whichofthefollowinglong-termFCFEgrowthratesismostconsistentwiththefactsandstatedpoliciesofEmerald?A.5%orlower.B.2%orhigher.C.8%orhigher.正確答案：C參考解析：Thesustainablegrowthrateisreturnonequity(ROE)multipliedbytheretentionratio.ROEis10%,andtheretentionratiois1–Payoutratio,or1.0–0.2=0.8.Thesustainablegrowthrateis0.8×10%=8%.FCFEgrowthshouldbeatleast8%peryearinthelongterm.[單選題]13.DothereasonsprovidedbyLeighsupporthisuseoftheFCFEmodeltovalueHolt’scommonstockinsteadofusingaDDM?A.Yes.B.No,becauseHolt’sdividendsituationarguesinfavorofusingtheDDM.C.No,becauseFCFEisnotappropriateforinvestorstakingacontrolperspective.正確答案：A參考解析：JustificationsforchoosingtheFCFEmodelovertheDDMincludethefollowing:●Thecompanypaysdividends,butitsdividendsdiffersignificantlyfromthecompany’scapacitytopaydividends(thefirstreasongivenbyLeigh).●Theinvestortakesacontrolperspective(thesecondreasongivenbyLeigh)[單選題]14.Holt'sFCFF(inmillions)for2020isclosestto:A.$308.B.$370.C.$422.正確答案：A參考解析：[單選題]15.Holt'sFCFE(inmillions)for2020isclosestto:A.$175.B.$250.C.$364.正確答案：B參考解析：FCFE=NI+NCC–FCInv–WCInv+Netborrowing.Inthiscase:NI=$485millionNCC=Depreciationexpense=$270millionFCInv=Netpurchaseoffixedassets=Increaseingrossfixedassets=4,275–3,752=$523millionWCInv=Increaseinaccountsreceivable+Increaseininventory–Increaseinaccountspayable–Increaseinaccruedliabilities=(770–711)+(846–780)–(476–443)-(149–114)=$57millionNetborrowing=Increaseinnotespayable+Increaseinlong–termdebt=(465–450)+(1,575–1,515)=$75millionFCFE=485+270–523–57+75=$250millionAnalternativecalculationisFCFE=FCFF–Int(1–Taxrate)+NetborrowingFCFE=307.6–195(1–0.32)+(15+60)=$250million[單選題]16.Leigh'scommentaboutnotconsideringdecreasesininventorytobeasourceoflong-termgrowthinfreecashflowforHoltis:A.inconsistentwithaforecastingperspective.B.mistakenbecausedecreasesininventoryareauseratherthanasourceofcash.C.consistentwithaforecastingperspectivebecauseinventoryreductionhasalimit,particularlyforagrowingfirm.正確答案：C參考解析：Inventorycannotbereducedbelowzero.Furthermore,salesgrowthtendstoincreaseinventory.[單選題]17.Smith'srecommendationtouseaFCFFmodeltovalueHoltis:A.logical,giventheprospectofHoltchangingcapitalstructure.B.notlogicalbecauseaFCFFmodelisusedonlytovaluethetotalfirm.C.notlogicalbecauseFCFErepresentsamoredirectapproachtofreecashflowvaluation.正確答案：A參考解析：TheFCFFmodelisoftenselectedwhenthecapitalstructureisexpectedtochangebecauseFCFFestimationmaybeeasierthanFCFEestimationinthepresenceofchangingfinancialleverage.NigelFrench,ananalystatTaurusInvestmentManagement,isanalyzingArchwayTechnologies,amanufacturerofluxuryelectronicautoequipment,attherequestofhissupervisor,LukasWright.FrenchisaskedtoevaluateArchway’sprofitabilityoverthepastfiveyearsrelativetoitstwomaincompetitors,whicharelocatedindifferentcountrieswithsignificantlydifferenttaxstructures.FrenchbeginsbyassessingArchway’scompetitivepositionwithintheluxuryelectronicautoequipmentindustryusingPorter’sfiveforcesframework.AsummaryofFrench’sindustryanalysisispresentedinExhibit1.Frenchnotesthatfortheyearjustended(2019),Archway’scostofgoodssoldwas30%ofsales.ToforecastArchway’sincomestatementfor2020,Frenchassumesthatallcompaniesintheindustrywillexperienceaninflationrateof8%onthecostofgoodssold.Exhibit2showsFrench’sforecastsrelatingtoArchway’spriceandvolumechanges.AfterputtingtogetherincomestatementprojectionsforArchway,FrenchforecastsArchway’sbalancesheetitems;HeusesArchway’shistoricalefficiencyratiostoforecastthecompany’sworkingcapitalaccounts.BasedonhisfinancialforecastforArchway,Frenchestimatesaterminalvalueusingavaluationmultiplebasedonthecompany’saverageprice-to-earningsmultiple(P/E)overthepastfiveyears.WrightdiscusseswithFrenchhowtheterminalvalueestimateissensitivetokeyassumptionsaboutthecompany’sfutureprospects.WrightasksFrench:“WhatchangeinthecalculationoftheterminalvaluewouldyoumakeifatechnologicaldevelopmentthatwouldadverselyaffectArchwaywasforecasttooccursometimebeyondyourfinancialforecasthorizon?”[單選題]18.WhichreturnmetricshouldFrenchusetoassessArchway’sfive-yearhistoricperformancerelativetoitscompetitors?A.ReturnonequityB.ReturnoninvestedcapitalC.Returnoncapitalemployed正確答案：C參考解析：Thereturnoncapitalemployed(ROCE)isapre-taxreturnmeasurethatcanbeusefulinthepeercomparisonofcompaniesincountrieswithdifferenttaxstructures.Archway’stwomaincompetitorsarelocatedindifferentcountrieswithsignificantlydifferenttaxstructures,andtherefore,apre-taxmeasureofreturnoncapitalemployedisbetterthananafter-taxmeasure.[單選題]19.Basedonthecurrentcompetitivelandscapepresentedin1,FrenchshouldconcludethatArchway’sabilityto:A.passalongpriceincreasesishigh.B.demandlowerinputpricesfromsuppliersislow.C.generateabove-averagereturnsoninvestedcapitalislow.正確答案：A參考解析：Porter’sfiveforcesframeworkinExhibit1describesanindustrywithhighbarrierstoentry,highcustomerswitchingcosts(suggestingalowthreatofsubstitutes),andaspecializedproduct(suggestinglowbargainingpowerofbuyers).Furthermore,theprimaryproductioninputsfromthelargegroupofsuppliersareconsideredbasiccommodities(suggestinglowbargainingpowerofsuppliers).ThesefavorableindustrycharacteristicswilllikelyenableArchwaytopassalongpriceincreasesandgenerateabove-averagereturnsoninvestedcapital.[單選題]20.Basedonthecurrentcompetitivelandscapepresentedin1,Archway’soperatingprofitmarginsovertheforecasthorizonareleastlikelyto:A.decrease.B.remainconstant.C.increase.正確答案：A參考解析：Thecurrentfavorablecharacteristicsoftheindustry(highbarrierstoentry,lowbargainingpowerofsuppliersandbuyers,lowthreatofsubstitutes),coupledwithArchway’sdominantmarketshareposition,willlikelyleadtoArchway’sprofitmarginsbeingatleastequaltoorgreaterthancurrentlevelsovertheforecasthorizon.[單選題]21.BasedonExhibit2,Archway’sforecastedgrossprofitmarginfor2020isclosestto:A.62.7%.B.67.0%.C.69.1%.正確答案：C參考解析：ThecalculationofArchway’sgrossprofitmarginfor2020,whichreflectstheindustry-wide8%inflationoncostofgoodssold(COGS),iscalculatedasfollows:Revenuegrowth=(1＋Priceincreaseforrevenue)×(1＋Volumegrowth)–1Revenuegrowth=(1.05)×(0.97)–1=1.85%COGSincrease=(1＋PriceincreaseforCOGS)×(1＋Volumegrowth)–1COGSincrease=(1.08)×(0.97)–1=4.76%Forecastedrevenue=Baserevenue×RevenuegrowthincreaseForecastedrevenue=100×1.0185=101.85ForecastedCOGS=BaseCOGS×COGSincreaseForecastedCOGS=30×1.0476=31.43Forecastedgrossprofit=Forecastedrevenue–ForecastedCOGSForecastedgrossprofit=101.85–31.43=70.42Forecastedgrossprofitmargin=Forecastedgrossprofit/ForecastedrevenueForecastedgrossprofitmargin=70.42/101.85=69.14%[單選題]22.French’sapproachtoforecastingArchway’sworkingcapitalaccountswouldbemostlikelyclassifiedasa:A.hybridapproach.B.top-downapproach.C.top-downapproach.正確答案：C參考解析：Frenchisusingabottom-upapproachtoforecastArchway’sworkingcapitalaccountsbyusingthecompany’shistoricalefficiencyratiostoprojectfutureperformance.[單選題]23.ThemostappropriateresponsetoWright’squestionaboutthetechnologicaldevelopmentisto:A.increasetherequiredreturn.B.decreasetheprice-to-earningsmultiple.C.decreasetheperpetualgrowthrate.正確答案：B參考解析：Ifthefuturegrowthorprofitabilityofacompanyislikelytobelowerthanthehistoricalaverage(inthiscase,becauseofapotentialtechnologicaldevelopment),thenthetargetmultipleshouldreflectadiscounttothehistoricalmultipletoreflectthisdifferenceingrowthand/orprofitability.Ifamultipleisusedtoderivetheterminalvalueofacompany,thechoiceofthemultipleshouldbeconsistentwiththelong-runexpectation