第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境

第三章經(jīng)濟(jì)核算與環(huán)境

EconomicAccountingandEnvironment第一節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)核算第二節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與人類福利第三節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與環(huán)境2023/12/2722第一節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)核算

EconomicAccounting一、經(jīng)濟(jì)部門分類EconomicSectorClassification很多國家都有本人的經(jīng)濟(jì)部門分類MostcountrieshaveaclassificationsystemfortheireconomicsectorsUS(previouslySIC–StandardIndustrialClassification)NowNAICS(NorthAmericanIndustrialClassificationSystem)UN(SNA–SystemofNationalAccounts)2023/12/2733經(jīng)濟(jì)部門分類EconomicSectorClassification分類有利于Thisclassificationfacilitates經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出和投入的系統(tǒng)核算〔國民收入和產(chǎn)品賬戶〕Systematicaccountingoftheoutputoftheeconomyanduseoftheoutput(NationalIncomeandProductAccountsNIPA)監(jiān)測和報告績效，如GDPMonitoringandreportingofperformancemeasuressuchasGrossDomesticProduct比較和基準(zhǔn)Comparisonandbenchmarking規(guī)劃和預(yù)測[投入產(chǎn)出分析]Planningandforecasting[Input-OutputAnalysis]2023/12/2744行業(yè)分類MajorindustriesinChinaA農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHuntingB采礦業(yè)MiningC制造業(yè)ManufacturingD電力、熱力、燃?xì)饧八M和供應(yīng)業(yè)Utilitiesandsupplyindustryonelectricity,heat,gasandwaterE建筑業(yè)ConstructionF零售和零售業(yè)WholesaleTradeandRetailTradeG交通運輸、倉儲和郵政業(yè)Transportation,storageandpostalservicesI信息傳輸、軟件和信息技術(shù)效力業(yè)transferinformation,softwareandITservices2023/12/275資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計局/zjtj/tjbz/hyflbz/J金融業(yè)FinancialIndustryK房地產(chǎn)業(yè)RealEstateL租賃和商務(wù)效力業(yè)LeasingandBusinessServicesM科學(xué)研討和技術(shù)效力業(yè)scientificandtechnicalservicesN水利、環(huán)境和公共設(shè)備管理業(yè)Water,environmentandpublicfacilitiesmanagementindustryO居民效力、修繕和其他效力業(yè)residentservices,repairsandotherservicesP教育EducationQ衛(wèi)生和社會任務(wù)HealthandsocialworkR文化、體育和文娛業(yè)Culture,SportsandEntertainmentS公共管理、社會保證和社會組織publicadministration,socialsecurityandsocialorganizationsT國際組織InternationalOrganizations52023/12/2766A農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)Agriculture,Forestry,Fishing,andHunting01 農(nóng)業(yè)011 谷物種植0111 稻谷種植 0112 小麥種植 0113 玉米種植 0119 其他谷物種植 012 豆類、油料和薯類種植 013 棉、麻、糖、煙草種植 014 蔬菜、食用菌及園藝作物種植 015 水果種植 016 堅果、含油果、香料和飲料作物種植 017 0170 中藥材種植 019 0190 其他農(nóng)業(yè)2023/12/27702 林業(yè)021 林木育種和育苗 0211 林木育種0212 林木育苗022 0220 造林和更新023 0230 森林運營和管護(hù) 024 木材和竹材采運0241 木材采運 0242 竹材采運 025 林產(chǎn)品采集0251 木竹材林產(chǎn)品采集0252 非木竹材林產(chǎn)品采集2023/12/2788二、投入產(chǎn)出分析Input-OutputAnalysis經(jīng)濟(jì)是由復(fù)雜而相互依存的部分〔農(nóng)業(yè)、制造業(yè)、效力業(yè)、政府、消費者、其它國家等〕組成的Theeconomyconsistsofcomplexandinterdependentsectors(Ag-Mfg-Service-Govt-Consumers-Othercountries)1、投入產(chǎn)出分析的概念★投入產(chǎn)出分析是一種運用會計和簡單的模型來表達(dá)農(nóng)業(yè)、制造業(yè)、效力業(yè)、政府、消費者、其它國家等相互依存的經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系Input-outputanalysisisanaccountingandsimplemodelingtechniquetorepresenttheseeconomicinterdependencies區(qū)域投入產(chǎn)出分析是在區(qū)域程度上的投入產(chǎn)出分析Regionalinput-outputanalysisisIOanalysisdoneataregionallevel2023/12/2799以GDP作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)效果和福利的問題

ProblemswithGDPasameasureofeconomicperformanceandwellbeing包括了防御性支出IncludesdefensiveexpendituresE.g.FluepidemicorHurricanesorpollutioncontrolexpendituresorwaronterror沒扣除自然、社會或人力資本DoesnotdeductdepreciationofNatural,Social,orHumancapital[onlymanmadecapitalisdepreciatedincalculatingNDP]Ores,fossilfuelstockreductionMarineresourceloss,deforestation,airandwaterqualitychangesLossofinstitutions,skills沒包括一切非市場商品和效力Excludesallnon-marketgoodsandservicesEnvironmental/EcosystemservicesHomeservicesLeisure第二節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與人類福利

EconomicGrowthandHumanWellbeing一、貧富二、貧富差別的緣由三、推進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的要素四、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的愿景五、衡量福利的非經(jīng)濟(jì)目的六、需求與愿望一、貧富Therichandthepoor★經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)鍵點Keyideasoneconomicgrowth一個時期內(nèi)的消費力Productionwithinaperiod–howtomodel跨時期的增長GrowthacrossperiodsBycapitalaccumulationBytechnologyraisingproductivity二、貧富差別的緣由★

Whyaresomecountriesrichandsomepoor?1、自然資源和條件差別Naturalresources&conditions2、增長率不同GrowthrateWhyhavesomegrownmorethanothers?2023/12/2713WhyEconomicGrowthseemsdesirable:

1.人均壽命與人均GDP的關(guān)系LongevityandGDP/capita2023/12/27142.嬰幼兒死亡率與人均GDP的關(guān)系

InfantmortalityandGDP/capita2023/12/27153.成人識字率與人均GDP的關(guān)系

LiteracyandGDP/capita2023/12/27164、幸福感與人均收入

HappinessandIncomepercapita2023/12/2717三、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的趨動力★

WhatDrivesEconomicGrowth?P146一定時期內(nèi)的消費函數(shù)取決于資本存量和勞動力Withinaperiod:ProductionfunctionCapitalstock,Labor不同時期那么取決于Changesbetweenperiods儲蓄、投資和資本積累Savings,investment&capitalaccumulation技術(shù)提高TechnologicalchangeP156Endogenous(functionofR&Dinvestmentinknowledgeandhumancapital)Exogenous2023/12/27181、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長模型ModelingEconomicGrowth:

1)消費函數(shù)ProductionFunctionP147NationalIncome=output(Y)Y=f(capital,labor,naturalresources) -TreatNRasaspecialcategory(ofcapital)Y=f(K,L,R)Y=Kα×Lβ×RδCobb-DouglasProductionFunction(α+β+δ=1forconstantreturnstoscale)Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1(解釋模型illustrativemodel)2023/12/27192)儲蓄、投資和資本積累

Savings,InvestmentandCapitalaccumulationP149S=sYs=savingsrateSt=ItI=InvestmentKt=Kt-1+ItMoreyousave,largeriscapitalstocknextyear,hencehigheryouroutputIfSavingsrate>PopulationgrowthThencapitalperworkerisincreasing,somoreoutputpercapitaButdecliningmarginalproductivityofcapital,sorateofincomegrowthdeclining(duetoshapeofproductionfunction)2023/12/27203、技術(shù)與效率

TechnologyandProductivityP155消費函數(shù) Y=K0.2×L0.7×R0.1加上效率要素(a,b,c) Y=aK0.2×bL0.7×cR0.1假設(shè)a,borc≠1.0，結(jié)果會怎樣樣？Whatifa,borc≠1.0?2023/12/2721Productivityandgrowthrate假設(shè)=a×b×c,那么: Y=(K0.2×L0.7×R0.1)假設(shè)低效率國家LE的=1，而高效率國家ME的=1.2那么在一樣的初始形狀L,K,R和儲蓄率下，高效率國家有高產(chǎn)出和高收入SameinitialL,K,RandsavingsrateMEwillalwayshavehigheroutput/income2023/12/2722TimeYLE(=1.0)ME(=1.2)Incomegrowthratesformore-efficient(ME)andless-efficient(LE)productivityYt=t(Kt0.2xLt0.7xRt0.1)2023/12/2723Whatdrivesefficiency?外生性增長ExogenousefficiencygrowthLuckybreaks:Goodweather,etc.內(nèi)源性增長Endogenousefficiencygrowth新技術(shù)Newtechnology改善管理Improvedmanagementt=f(Kt-1);intextbook:t=Kt-10.62023/12/2724Recap:DriversofGDPgrowth加大投入Moreinputuse(L,K,R)添加資本積累Morecapitalaccumulated(K)提高效率Moreefficiency(t)EndogenousefficiencygrowthisbasedonKt-1Sohowtoencouragethese?2023/12/2725鼓勵與行為IncentivesandbehaviorWhatmakespeoplesavemore?文化風(fēng)俗Culturalnorms儲蓄收益Likelihoodofgainfromsaving利率Interestrates(returnoncapitalownership)稅率Taxrates報答的動搖性Volatilityofreturns產(chǎn)權(quán)平安性Securityofpropertyrights2023/12/2726一、環(huán)境影響恒等式IPATmodelP1801、環(huán)境影響恒等式I=P×A×TI=EnvironmentalImpact(resourceextractionandWasteinsertion)P=人口數(shù)量PopulationA=富有程度Affluence(percapitaconsumptionorGDP/P)T=技術(shù)程度Technology(Envimpact/unitconsumption)第三節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與環(huán)境

EconomicGrowthandtheEnvironment2023/12/2727ExampleforIPATmodelGlobalemissionsofCO22000年，P=6billion,A=$7000,T=0.00055tons/$I=6×7000×0.00055I=23.1billiontonsI=PATisanidentity!它指出了經(jīng)濟(jì)活動是對環(huán)境影響最直接的決議要素2023/12/27282、IPAT情景分析

ScenarioanalysisusingIPAT人口增長Populationgrowth(functionoffertility)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長Economicgrowth(Affluencegrowth)技術(shù)提高Technologychange2023/12/27293、技術(shù)需求WhattechnologychangesareneededtokeepconstantCO2emissions?T*2050=23100/(P2050*A2050)Low/Low=0.4638High/high=0.0772DisaggregatedIPATIi=PATjjcanbespecificpollutants,icanbespecificindustries2023/12/2730二、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與環(huán)境關(guān)系的模擬

ModelingGrowthandtheEnvironmentProductionfunctionY=Kα×Lβ×RδSavings/InvestmentfunctionS=sYs=savingsrateSt=ItI=InvestmentKt=Kt-1+ItRwasnaturalresourceuse2023/12/27311、自然資源對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生制約了嗎？

Donaturalresourcesimposelimitstoeconomicgrowth?自然資源Naturalresources不可再生資源Nonrenewableresources(fixedstocks)可再生資源Renewableresources(thereisalimitonmaximumsustainableharvest)自然資源能被投資和勞力替代嗎？CanRbesubstitutedwithKandL?技術(shù)提高的作用？WhataboutTechnologica