中資美元債市場(chǎng)8月報(bào)：市場(chǎng)止跌反彈利差空間寬闊

Research4Sep市場(chǎng)止跌反彈，利差空間寬闊——8MonthlyReportforChinaOffshoreUSDBond:MarketRebounded,andSpreadswereSteven觀點(diǎn)聚焦InvestmentFocus(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglish二級(jí)市場(chǎng)總體表現(xiàn)：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息預(yù)期升溫，美元債市場(chǎng)調(diào)整，投資級(jí)與美債利差上升，境內(nèi)外利差走闊。2023 8跌0.95%跌0.38%跌5.72%至8月底，中資美漲0.32%漲3.00%跌7.9%至8月底，中資美元債券指數(shù)收益率為7.07%，投資級(jí)債指數(shù)收益率為6.03%，高收益?zhèn)笖?shù)收益率為3.8%。收益率本月分別上升33.5、27.3和241.1個(gè)基點(diǎn)。投資級(jí)債與美債利差為17.7個(gè)基點(diǎn)，本月上升。與境內(nèi)債利差為30.3個(gè)基點(diǎn)，利差上升。金融業(yè)：金融業(yè)投資級(jí)債券收跌，AT1債券上漲，與美債利差上升，境內(nèi)外利差大幅走闊。20238月，中資美1.68%0.72%，AT11.25%831城投債：城投投資級(jí)債表現(xiàn)較優(yōu)，高收益?zhèn)D(zhuǎn)跌，城投債與美債利差上升，境內(nèi)外利差寬闊。2023年8月，中策積極，效果可期。202380.53%4.83%，中資美元房地產(chǎn)高收益?zhèn)笖?shù)跌17.39%。本月30大中城市商品房周度累計(jì)成交面積約為914.3萬(wàn)平米，環(huán)比下降4.6%25.6%14城二手房成交面積627.19.0%，同比降7.3%一級(jí)市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)：新發(fā)行行業(yè)數(shù)量提升，發(fā)行量同環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)，期限縮短票息上升。2023年8月中資美元債市場(chǎng)共5477.71.1%135.3%。發(fā)行主體企業(yè)性質(zhì)分布中，央企占比為多元金融占13.6%，綜合類(lèi)占11.3%。發(fā)行期限平均為2.4年，平均票面利率為5.3%，央企平均票面利率為4.8%。 。9月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)仍可能加息，10年美債收益率預(yù)期延續(xù)高位震蕩，短期市場(chǎng)仍將關(guān)注美國(guó)通脹數(shù)據(jù)和經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性，券活動(dòng)。關(guān)于海通國(guó)際的分析師證明，重要披露聲明和免責(zé)聲明，請(qǐng)參閱附錄。(PleaseseeappendixforEnglishtranslationofthe中資美元投資級(jí)債券與美債利差較歷史低位回升，本月利差上升明顯。截至8316.03%179.7券與美債的利差從歷史低位回升，2023年以來(lái)利差波動(dòng)下行。Wind,中資美元債投資級(jí)債券與5YWind,中資美元高收益?zhèn)c美債利差處于歷史高位，本月利差波動(dòng)上升。截至83123.82%239.1545.5個(gè)基點(diǎn)。2020年以來(lái)高收益?zhèn)?302.9202088.4%分位數(shù)。中資中資美元債高收益?zhèn)c3YWind,38.078.5個(gè)基點(diǎn)。2022年以來(lái)投資級(jí)債券和境內(nèi)債利差均利差處于歷史相對(duì)高位，2023年以來(lái)利差波動(dòng)上行。5年期境內(nèi)中債企業(yè)債到期收益率（AAA）5年期境內(nèi)中債企業(yè)債到期收益率（AA）比較，WindHTI中資美元債投資級(jí)債券與中債企業(yè)債（AAA）Wind,250.9634.1個(gè)基點(diǎn)。20221679.2202283.0%分位數(shù)。中資美元高收益?zhèn)c境內(nèi)債的利差處歷史較高水平，2023年利差震蕩走闊。中資美元債高收益?zhèn)c中債企業(yè)債（AA）Wind,對(duì)沖后中資美元投資級(jí)債券與境內(nèi)債利差上升，對(duì)沖成本短期仍高。截至20238312.36%，與境內(nèi)債利差為-56.6個(gè)中資美元債投資級(jí)債券對(duì)沖后收益與中債企業(yè)債（AAA）Wind,中資金融行業(yè)債券收跌，投資級(jí)債微跌，AT1債券表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異。2023631日831日，MarkitiBoxx中資美元金融債券指數(shù)跌1.68%，金融投資級(jí)別債券指數(shù)指數(shù)跌2.34%，金融投資級(jí)別債券指數(shù)上升2.79%，AT1債券指數(shù)上升6.25%。截至2023831日，MarkitiBoxx9.75%，金融投資級(jí)中資美元金融債指數(shù)走 中資美元金融債收益率Wind, Wind,本月中資美元金融投資級(jí)債與美債利差上升，利差處于歷史較高水平。截至8317.06%282.853.732.0個(gè)基點(diǎn)。2021年以來(lái)美元金融投資級(jí)債和美國(guó)國(guó)債利差均值為239.1個(gè)基點(diǎn)，目前利差處于歷史較高水平。Wind,本月中資美元金融投資級(jí)債券境內(nèi)外利差上升明顯，利差空間較高。截至2023以來(lái)中資金融投資級(jí)債和境內(nèi)中債企業(yè)債（AAA）收益率利差均值為170.5個(gè)基點(diǎn)，目前利差處于歷史較高水平，2023年以來(lái)利差逐步上行，高位收窄。對(duì)沖后中資美元3.39%，和境內(nèi)中債企業(yè)債（AAA）46.5中資美元金融投資級(jí)債與境內(nèi)企業(yè)債利 對(duì)沖后中資美元金融投資級(jí)債與境內(nèi)企業(yè)債利Wind, Wind,中資美元城投債微漲，投資級(jí)表現(xiàn)較優(yōu)，高收益城投債收跌。2023年6月31日831日，MarkitiBoxx0.17%，MarkitiBoxx城投投資級(jí)0.30%，MarkitiBoxx0.69%831日，4.22%2023831日，中資美元城投債券指數(shù)收益率為7.45%，19.516.554.3個(gè)基點(diǎn)。中資美元城投債指數(shù)走 中資美元債城投債收益率Wind, Wind,本月中資美元城投債與美債利差上升，年至今利差波動(dòng)下行。20238月31日，中資美元城投債券收益率為7.45%，與美債利差為259.7個(gè)基點(diǎn)，本月上升22.5個(gè)基點(diǎn)，年至今收窄19.8個(gè)基點(diǎn)。2021276.2個(gè)基點(diǎn)，目前利差處于歷史均值偏下，2023Wind,本月中資美元城投債境內(nèi)外利差上升，境內(nèi)外利差處于歷史較高水平。截至8317.45%，與境內(nèi)中債城投債（AAA）488.830.472.8個(gè)基點(diǎn)。2021年以來(lái)中資美元城投債和境內(nèi)中債城投債（AAA）到期收益率利差均值為246.9個(gè)基點(diǎn)，目前利差處于歷史較高水平，2023年以來(lái)利差窄幅波動(dòng)，趨勢(shì)上行。中資美元城投債收益率及境內(nèi)外利 境內(nèi)中債城投債收益率與國(guó)開(kāi)債利Wind, Wind,7318310.53%，MarkitiBoxx中資美元房地產(chǎn)投資級(jí)債券指數(shù)跌4.83%，MarkitiBoxx中資美元房地產(chǎn)高收益?zhèn)笖?shù)跌17.39%。年初至8月31日，中證地產(chǎn)債指數(shù)上漲1.92%，中資美元房地產(chǎn)投資級(jí)債券指數(shù)跌91.75%88197個(gè)基點(diǎn)和上升2339個(gè)基點(diǎn)。Wind,境內(nèi)外地產(chǎn)債指數(shù)收益率Wind,境內(nèi)地產(chǎn)債高評(píng)級(jí)債短債跌幅較大，AA+評(píng)級(jí)長(zhǎng)債跌幅明顯，整體調(diào)整。截至2023831AAA級(jí)收益率按到期時(shí)間分類(lèi)，1年內(nèi)、1-2年、2-3年、3年以上到期平均收益率為6.19%、6.50%、6.78%、4.21%，本月變化+129.4P、+44.7BP、+72.3BP、+6.2BP。AA+級(jí)收益率按到期時(shí)間分類(lèi)，1年內(nèi)、1-2年、2-336.99%、11.32%、5.62%、4.81%，本月變化+53.3BP、+419BP+19.6BP、-10.6BP。其他評(píng)級(jí)收益率按到期時(shí)間分類(lèi)，1年內(nèi)、1-2年、2-3年、3年以上到期收益率為6.93%、8.55%、9.78%、6.27%，本月變化+46.3BP、+133.8BPWind,HTI,2023/7/31-境外中資美元債地產(chǎn)債調(diào)整走弱，高收益?zhèn)蠓盏?，投資級(jí)較穩(wěn)定。截至2023831日，境外地產(chǎn)債投資級(jí)到期收益率按到期時(shí)間分類(lèi)，1年內(nèi)、1-2年、2-3年、3年以上到期收益率為8.6%、9.6%、10.7%、8.0%，本月變變化+112.2BP+167.6BP、+242.8BP、+117.9BP。高收益級(jí)債券到期收益率按到期時(shí)間分類(lèi)，1年內(nèi)、1-2年、2-3年、3年以上到期收益率為98.9%、85.7%、104.8%、98.0%+1523.2BP、+1408.9BP、+2954.0BP、+2391.5BP。無(wú)評(píng)級(jí)債到期收益率按到期時(shí)間分類(lèi)，1年內(nèi)、1-2年、2-3年、359.2%、70.9%、53.8%、131.5%，Wind,HTI,2023/7/31-8月本月30大中城市商品房成交量同環(huán)比降幅收窄，累計(jì)同比降幅較725.6%1-8月累計(jì)成交面積來(lái)看，309396.6萬(wàn)平米，同比下降4.9%。1-7月累計(jì)成交面積增速為下降1.9%，累計(jì)成交增速放緩。30大中城市商品房成交面積周度數(shù)據(jù)（截至2023年8月31日Wind,二手房成交環(huán)比改善，累計(jì)同比降幅收窄，部分熱點(diǎn)城市成交回暖。2023年8米，同比上升37.2%。主要跟蹤城市中，北京二手房成交增速放緩，深圳、杭州和成14城二手房成交面積周度數(shù)據(jù)（截至2023年8月31日Wind,8月初，央行發(fā)文指導(dǎo)商業(yè)銀行依法有序調(diào)整存量個(gè)人住房貸款利率。支持房地產(chǎn)利率和首付比例下行，更好滿(mǎn)足居民剛性和改善性住房需求。8月開(kāi)始，各地因城施，深圳消限購(gòu)限售。825日，住建部、央行、金管局：聯(lián)合印發(fā)《關(guān)于優(yōu)化個(gè)人住房貸款中住房套數(shù)認(rèn)定標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的通知》，推動(dòng)落實(shí)購(gòu)買(mǎi)首套房貸款“認(rèn)房不用認(rèn)貸”政策。828日，國(guó)家發(fā)改委發(fā)文要求加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警和妥善處置，適應(yīng)我國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)供求關(guān)系發(fā)生重大變化的新形勢(shì)，因城施策用好政策工具箱。80日，廣州、深圳執(zhí)行認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”。同日，人民銀行和金管局通知，首付比例不再區(qū)分限購(gòu)和非限購(gòu)城0%30。二套住房利率政策下限調(diào)整為不低于相應(yīng)期限貸款市場(chǎng)報(bào)價(jià)利率LR)加20個(gè)基點(diǎn)，首套不低于相應(yīng)期R20個(gè)基點(diǎn)。91日，北京、上海執(zhí)行認(rèn)房不認(rèn)貸”。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)新聞?wù)恚?月1日-9月1日Wind,Wind,中資美元除金融地產(chǎn)外債券整體下跌，收益率整體上升明顯。2023731日831日，MarkitiBoxx0.36%，金融地產(chǎn)除外0.29%0.84%831日，MarkitiBoxx3.27%債券指數(shù)上升3.22%，金融地產(chǎn)除外高收益?zhèn)笖?shù)上升3.55%。截至8月31日，MarkitiBoxx6.79%，金融地產(chǎn)除外投資級(jí)別42.839.465.4個(gè)基點(diǎn)。中資美元非金融地產(chǎn)債指數(shù)走 中資美元非金融地產(chǎn)債收益率Wind, Wind,本月中資美元除金融地產(chǎn)外投資級(jí)債券與美債利差上升，短期高位震蕩。截至34.413.6個(gè)基點(diǎn)。2021年以來(lái)除金融地產(chǎn)外投資級(jí)債和美國(guó)國(guó)債利差均值為198.6個(gè)基點(diǎn)，處于歷史76.9%分位數(shù)，高位震蕩。Wind,改善831日，中資美元金融地產(chǎn)除外投資級(jí)債與境內(nèi)中債企業(yè)債（AAA）債券收益率為2.94%，較境內(nèi)中債企業(yè)債（AAA）收益率高1.3個(gè)基點(diǎn)。中資美元金融投資級(jí)債與境內(nèi)企業(yè)債利 對(duì)沖后中資美元金融投資級(jí)債與境內(nèi)企業(yè)債利Wind, Wind,135.3%。1-8672.535.1%。858.9%36.8%4.3%。中資2.45.3%。發(fā)行期限按企業(yè)年。票面利率情況中資美元債發(fā)行主體企業(yè)性質(zhì)分 中資美元債發(fā)行主體wind行業(yè)分Wind, Wind,中資美元債不同主體發(fā)行平均期 中資美元債不同主體發(fā)行平均票面利Wind, Wind,關(guān)注中資美元債市場(chǎng)投資級(jí)地產(chǎn)債、高評(píng)級(jí)城投債和金融銀行業(yè)債券的調(diào)整后投資機(jī)會(huì)，中資企業(yè)基本面預(yù)期穩(wěn)定改善。9月美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息可能性仍存，10APPENDIXSecondarymarketperformance:TheFEDwasexpectedtoraiseinterestrates,theUSUSDbondmarkethasadjusted,theinvestmentgradeandUSbondspreadshaverisen,andtheonshoreandoffshorespreadshavewidened.InAugust2023,theChineseUSDbondindexfell0.95%,theinvestmentgradebondindexfell0.38%,andthehighyieldbondindexfell5.72%.FromthebeginningoftheyeartoAugust31,theChineseUSDbondindexrose0.32%,theinvestmentgradebondindexrose3.00%,andthehighyieldbondindexfell17.94%.AsoftheendofAugust,theyieldoftheChineseUSDbondindexwas7.07%,theyieldoftheinvestmentgradebondindexwas6.03%,andtheyieldofthehigh-yieldbondindexwas23.82%.Yieldsareup33.5,up27.3andup241.1basispointsrespectivelythismonth.ThespreadbetweeninvestmentgradebondsandTreasuriesis179.7basispoints,upthismonth.Thespreadwithdomesticdebtwas310.3basispoints,risingthismonth.MajorsectorFinancialsector:Investmentgradebondsinthefinancialindustrycloseddown,AT1bondsrose,thespreadwiththeUSTreasuryrose,andthespreadathomeandabroadwidenedsharply.InAugust2023,theChineseUSDfinancialbondindexfell1.68%,thefinancialinvestmentgradebondindexfell0.72%,andtheAT1bondindexrose1.25%.AsofAugust31,theyieldoftheFinancialinvestmentgradebondindexwas7.06%,andtheyieldoftheAT1bondindexwas8.55%.Yieldsareup58.7and52.5basispoints,respectively,thismonth.ThespreadbetweenChineseUSDfinancialinvestmentgradebondsandUSTreasurieswas282.8basispoints,upmorethan50basispointsthismonth.Theonshoreandoffshorespreadwas413.4basispoints,nearly70basispointsthismonth.LGFVsector:LGFVinvestmentgradebondperformedbetter,highyieldbondturneddown,LGFVbondandUStreasuriesspreadincreased,wideronshoreandoffshorespreads.InAugust2023,theChineseUSDLGFVBondindexrose0.17%,theLGFVinvestmentgradebondindexrose0.30%,andtheLGFVhighyieldbondindexfell0.69%.Theyieldoftheinvestmentgradebondindexwas7.19%,andtheyieldofthehighyieldgradebondindexwas9.62%.Yieldswereup16.5and54.3basispointsthismonth,respectively.ChineseUSDLGFVbondsyield7.45%,withaspreadof250.7basispointswithUSTreasuries,risingfasterthismonth.Theonshoreandoffshorespreadwas488.8basispoints.Realestateindustry:Realestatebondsfell,andoffshorebondsadjustedsignificantly.Thismonth,themonth-on-monthdeclineincommercialhousingtransactionsnarrowed,andsecond-handhousingtransactionsstabilizedandincreased.Month-endpolicywaspositive,theeffectcanbeexpected.InAugust2023,theChinaSecuritiesRealEstateBondIndexfell0.53%,theChineseUSDrealestateinvestmentgradebondindexfell4.83%,andtheChineseUSDrealestatehighyieldbondindexfell17.39%.Thismonth30largeandmedium-sizedurbancommercialhousingweeklycumulativetransactionareaofabout9.143,000squaremeters,down4.6%fromthepreviousmonth,down25.6%YOY.Thismonth14citysecond-handhousingtransactionareaof6.271,000squaremeters,up9.0%MOM,down7.3%YOY.Primarymarketdynamics:Thenumberofissuers’industriesincreased,thevolumeofissuanceincreasedfromthepreviousmonth,andthematurityhasshortenedandthecouponhasincreased.AsoftheendofAugust2023,atotalof54bondswereissuedintheChineseUSDbondmarketthismonth,raising7.77billionUSUSDs,anincreaseof1.1%year-on-yearand135.3%month-on-month.InthedistributionofthemainenterprisenatureofChineseUSDbondissuance,centralSOEsaccountedfor58.9%,localSOEsaccountedfor36.8%,andprivateenterprisesaccountedfor4.3%.Amongthemajorindustries,lifeandhealthinsuranceaccountedfor25.7%,bankingaccountedfor21.7%,diversifiedfinanceaccountedfor13.6%,comprehensiveaccountingfor11.3%.Theaverageissuancetermwas2.4years,theaveragecouponratewas5.3%,andtheaveragecouponrateofcentralenterpriseswas4.8%.Investmentadvice:Focusontheadjustedinvestmentopportunitiesofinvestment-graderealestatebonds,high-gradeLGFVinvestmentbondsandfinancialbankingbondsintheChineseUSDbondmarket,andthefundamentalsofChineseenterprisesareexpectedtoimprovesteadily.InSeptember,theFederalReservemaystillraiseinterestrates,10-yearUSbondyieldexpectationscontinuetobehighandvolatile,short-termmarketswillstillfocusonUSinflationdataandeconomicresilience,andtheprobabilityofinterestratecutswaslowwithintheyear.Thefundamentalsoftherealestateindustrycanbeexpectedtoimprove,andthepolicyusheredinpositivechangesattheendofthemonth.Itwasexpectedthatshort-termpolicyadjustmentswillreleasemoredemandtosupportsales,thecostofbuyingahousecontinuesthedownwardtrend,andthecashflowpressureofhousingenterpriseswasexpectedtoimprove.Itwassuggestedtopayattentiontotheadjustedrealestatedebtopportunitiesofenterpriseswithstablesalesandsmoothfinancing.Thecityinvestmentbondmarketstabilized,theinvestmentgradeperformancewasbetter,theoverallandUStreasuryspreadsroseintheshortterm,theonshoreandoffshorespreadswerestillwide,andtheimprovementofthecityinvestmentbondabilitymaintainedapositiveimpactonthemarket.Theoverallshort-termhighyieldofinvestmentgradebondsinthefinancialbankingsectorhasfluctuated,andtheinterestrateofUSTreasurieshasincreased,andtheinterestratespreadatonshoreandoffshorewidened,focusingontheopportunityofhighinterestratespread.Risks:TheFederalReserveraisedinterestratesoverexpected,China'seconomicrecoveryfellshortofexpectations,andrealestatesaleshavefallenmorethanexpected.附錄IMPORTANTLimited(“HSIPL”),HaitongInternationalJapanK.K.(“HTIJKK”),HaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),andanyothermemberswithintheHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupofCompanies(“HTISG”),eachauthorizedtoengageinsecuritiesactivitiesinitsrespectivejurisdiction.HTIRLAnalyst我 表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,StevenSong,certifythat(i)theviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectmypersonalviewsaboutanyorallofthesubjectcompaniesorissuersreferredtointhisresearchand(ii)nopartofmycompensationwas,isorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport;andthatI(includingmembersofmyhousehold)havenofinancialinterestinthesecurityorsecuritiesofthesubjectcompaniesdiscussed.Iandmyhousehold, 及時(shí)無(wú)遺漏，如需了解及時(shí)全面信息，請(qǐng)發(fā)郵件至ERD-Disclosure@）emailtoERD-Disclosure@iftimelyandcomprehensiveinformationisneeded).評(píng)級(jí)定義（從2020年8月1日開(kāi)始執(zhí)行HTI的評(píng)級(jí)定義。并且HTI發(fā)布分析師觀點(diǎn)的完整信息，投資者應(yīng)仔細(xì)閱讀全文而非僅看評(píng)級(jí)。在任何情況下，分析師的評(píng)級(jí)和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買(mǎi)賣(mài)股票的決策應(yīng)于各自情況（比如投資者的現(xiàn)有持倉(cāng)）以及其他因素。中性，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)變化不大，基準(zhǔn)定義如下。根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們會(huì)將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類(lèi)別。各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本–TOPIX,韓國(guó)–KOSPI,臺(tái)灣–TAIEX,印度–Nifty100,美國(guó)–SP500;其他所有中國(guó)概念股–MSCIChina.RatingsDefinitions(from1JulHaitongInternationalusesarelativeratingsystemusingOutperform,Neutral,orUnderperformforrecommendingthestockswecovertoinHaitongInternationalResearch.Inaddition,sinceHaitongInternationalResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadHaitongInternationalResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherAnalystStockOutperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18months

評(píng)級(jí)分布Rating indicatedbelow.Neutral:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Underperform:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.Benchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100,US–SP500;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–MSCIChina.截至2023年6月31優(yōu)于大 中 弱于大海通國(guó)際股票研究覆蓋 投資銀行客戶(hù) * 前的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)定義（直至2020年6月31日）：買(mǎi)入，未來(lái)12- 個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如賣(mài)出，未來(lái)12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本TOPIX韓國(guó)KOSPI,臺(tái)灣TAIEX印度Nifty100;其他所有中國(guó)概念股MSCIHTIEquityResearchIBBUY,Neutral,andSELLintheabovedistributioncorrespondtoourcurrentratingsofOutperform,Neutral,andForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.Previousratingsystemdefinitions(until30JunBUY:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtoexceedthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.NEUTRAL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobeinlinewiththereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.ForpurposesonlyofFINRA/NYSEratingsdistributionrules,ourNeutralratingfallsintoaholdratingcategory.SELL:Thestock’stotalreturnoverthenext12-18monthsisexpectedtobebelowthereturnofitsrelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedBenchmarksforeachstock’slistedregionareasfollows:Japan–TOPIX,Korea–KOSPI,Taiwan–TAIEX,India–Nifty100;forallotherChina-conceptstocks–海通國(guó)際非評(píng)級(jí)研究：了進(jìn)行股票評(píng)級(jí)、提出目標(biāo)價(jià)格或進(jìn)行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-RatedResearch:HaitongInternationalpublishesquantitative,screeningorshortreportswhichmayrankstocksaccordingtovaluationandothermetricsormaysuggestpricesbasedonpossiblevaluationmultiples.Suchrankingsorsuggestedpricesdonotpurporttobestockratingsortargetpricesorfundamentalvaluesandareforinformationonly.海通國(guó)際A股覆蓋：海通國(guó)際可能會(huì)就滬港通及深港通的中國(guó)A股進(jìn)行覆蓋及評(píng)級(jí)。海通證券（600837.CH），海通國(guó)際于上海的母公司，也會(huì)于中國(guó)發(fā)布中國(guó)A股的研究報(bào)告。但是，海通國(guó)際使用與海通證券不同的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)，所以海通國(guó)際與海通證券的中國(guó)A股評(píng)級(jí)可能有所不同。HaitongInternationalCoverageofA-Shares:HaitongInternationalmaycoverandrateA-SharesthataresubjecttotheHongKongStockConnectschemewithShanghaiandShenzhen.HaitongSecurities(HS;600837CH),theultimateparentcompanyofHTISGbasedinShanghai,coversandpublishesresearchonthesesameA-SharesfordistributioninmainlandChina.However,theratingsystememployedbyHSdiffersfromthatusedbyHTIandasaresulttheremaybeadifferenceintheHTIandHSratingsforthesameA-sharestocks.海通國(guó)際優(yōu)質(zhì)100A股（Q100）指數(shù)：海通國(guó)際Q100指數(shù)是一個(gè)包括100支由海通證券覆蓋的優(yōu)質(zhì)中國(guó)A股的計(jì)量產(chǎn)品。這些股票是通過(guò)基于質(zhì)量的篩選過(guò)程，并結(jié)合對(duì)海通證券股團(tuán)隊(duì)自下而上的研究。海通國(guó)際每季對(duì)Q100HaitongInternationalQuality100A-share(Q100)Index:HTI’sQ100Indexisaquantproductthatconsistsof100ofthehighest-qualityA-sharesundercoverageatHSinShanghai.Thesestocksarecarefullyselectedthroughaquality-basedscreeningprocessincombinationwithareviewoftheHSA-shareteam’sbottom-upresearch.TheQ100constituentcompaniesarereviewedquarterly.MSCIEG評(píng)級(jí)免責(zé)聲明條款：盡管海通國(guó)際的信息供貨商（MSCISGResarchLC及其聯(lián)屬公司（「SG方」）從其認(rèn)為可靠的來(lái)源獲取信息（「信息」）,SG方均不擔(dān)?；虮ＷC此處任何數(shù)據(jù)的原創(chuàng)性，準(zhǔn)確性和/或完整性，并明確表示不作出任何明示或默示的擔(dān)保，包括可商售性和針對(duì)特定目的的適用性。該信息只能供閣下內(nèi)部使用，不得以任 造成的損害,ESG方均不承擔(dān)與此處任何資料有關(guān)的任何錯(cuò)誤或遺漏所引起的任何責(zé)任，也不對(duì)任何直接、間接、特殊、懲罰性、附帶性或任何其他損害賠償（包括利潤(rùn)損失）承擔(dān)任MSCIESGDisclaimer:AlthoughHaitongInternational’sinformationproviders,includingwithoutlimitation,MSCIESGResearchLLCanditsaffiliates(the“ESGParties”),obtaininformation(the“Information”)fromsourcestheyconsiderreliable,noneoftheESGPartieswarrantsorguaranteestheoriginality,accuracyand/orcompleteness,ofanydatahereinandexpresslydisclaimallexpresssecuritiestobuyorsellorwhentobuyorsellthem.NoneoftheESGPartiesshallhaveanyliabilityforanyerrorsoromissionsinconnectionwithanydataherein,oranyliabilityforanydirect,indirect,special,punitive,consequentialoranyotherdamages(includinglostprofits)evenifnotifiedofthepossibilityofsuchdamages.第一條義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)系由盟浪可持續(xù)數(shù)字科技有限責(zé)任公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱(chēng)“本公司”）基于合法取得的公開(kāi)信息評(píng)估而成，本公司對(duì)信息的準(zhǔn)確性及完整性不作任何保證。對(duì)公司的評(píng)估結(jié)果僅供參考，并不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)投資建議，也不能作為任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)購(gòu)買(mǎi)、出售或持有相關(guān)金融產(chǎn)品的依據(jù)。本公司不對(duì)任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)投資者因使用本數(shù)據(jù)表述的第二條，盟浪有權(quán)在不發(fā)出通知的情況下更新、修訂與發(fā)出其他與本數(shù)據(jù)所載內(nèi)容不一致或有不同結(jié)論的數(shù)據(jù)。除非另行說(shuō)明，本數(shù)據(jù)（如財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績(jī)數(shù)據(jù)等）僅代表過(guò)往表現(xiàn)，過(guò)往的業(yè)績(jī)表第三條、復(fù)制、編譯、匯編、再次編輯、改編、刪減、縮寫(xiě)、節(jié)選、發(fā)行、出租、展覽、表演、放映、廣播、信息網(wǎng)絡(luò)傳播、攝制、增加圖標(biāo)及說(shuō)明等，否則因此給盟浪或其他第三方造成損第四條如本免責(zé)聲明未約定，而盟浪網(wǎng)站平臺(tái)載明的其他協(xié)議內(nèi)容（如《盟浪網(wǎng)站用戶(hù)注冊(cè)協(xié)議》《盟浪網(wǎng)用戶(hù)服務(wù)（含認(rèn)證）協(xié)議》《盟浪網(wǎng)隱私政策》等）有約定的，則按其他協(xié)SusallWaveFIN-ESGDataServiceDisclaimer:PleasereadthesetermsandconditionsbelowcarefullyandconfirmyouragreementandacceptancewiththesetermsbeforeusingSusallWaveFIN-ESGDataService.foranyaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformation.Theassessmentresultisforreferenceonly.Itisnotforanyinvestmentadviceforanyindividualorinstitutionandnotforbasisofpurchasing,SusallWavedonotconsiderrecipientsascustomersforreceivingthesedata.Whenusingthedata,recipientsshallmakeyourownindependentjudgmentaccordingtoyourpracticalindividualstatus.Thecontentsofthedatareflectthejudgmentofusonlyonthereleaseday.Wehaverighttoupdateandamendthedataandreleaseotherdatathatcontainsinconsistentcontentsorpredictionoffuturereturn.ThecopyrightofthisdatabelongstoSusallWave,andwereserveallrightsinaccordancewiththelaw.Withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofourcompany,noneofindividualorinstitutioncanusethesedataforanyprofitablepurpose.Besides,noneofindividualorinstitutioncantakeactionssuchasamendment,replication,translation,compilation,re-editing,adaption,deletion,abbreviation,excerpts,issuance,rent,exhibition,performance,projection,broadcast,informationnetworktransmission,shooting,addingiconsandinstructions.IfanylossofSusallWaveoranythird-partyiscausedbythoseactions,usersshallbearthecorrespondingcompensationliability.SusallWaveshallnotberesponsibleforanyloss.AgreementofSusallWaveWebsite,PrivacyPolicyofSusallwaveWebsite),itshouldbeexecutedaccordingtootheragreements.Ifthereisanydifferencebetweenthisdisclaimandotheragreements,thisdisclaimershallbeapplied.非印度證券的研究報(bào)告：本報(bào)告由海通國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)有限公司（“HTISGL”）的全資附屬公司海通國(guó)際研究有限公司（“HTIRL”）發(fā)行，該公司是根據(jù)香港證券及期貨條例（ 章）有第4類(lèi)受規(guī)管活動(dòng)（就證券提供意見(jiàn)）HTISGLHaiogIntenatioln)K.K（HK”）的協(xié)助下發(fā)行，HTIJKK是由日本關(guān)東財(cái)務(wù)局監(jiān)管為投資顧問(wèn)。印度證券的研究報(bào)告：本報(bào)告由從事證券交易、投資銀行及證券分析及受SecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia（“SEBI”）監(jiān)管的HaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited（“HTSIPL”）所發(fā)行，包括制作及發(fā)布涵蓋BSELimited（“BSE”）和NationalStockExchangeofIndiaLimited（“NSE”）上市公司（統(tǒng)稱(chēng)為「印度交易所」）的研究報(bào)告。HTSIPL于2016年12月22日被收購(gòu)本文件所載信息和觀點(diǎn)已被編譯或源自可靠來(lái)源， HTIRL、 /可能會(huì)對(duì)投資產(chǎn)生不利影響。過(guò)去的表現(xiàn)并不一定代表將來(lái)的結(jié)果。某些特定交易，包括設(shè)計(jì)金融衍生工具的，有產(chǎn)生重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的可能性，因此并不適合所有的投資者。您還應(yīng)認(rèn)識(shí)到本文件中的建議并非為您量身定制。分析師并未考慮到您自身的財(cái)務(wù)情況，如您的財(cái)務(wù)狀況和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好。因此您必須自行分析并在適用的情況下咨詢(xún)自己的法律、稅收、會(huì)計(jì)、金融和其他方面的專(zhuān)業(yè)顧問(wèn)，以期在投資之前評(píng)估該項(xiàng)建議是否適合于您。若由于使用本文件所載的材料而產(chǎn)生任何直接或間接的損失，HTISG 及其董事、雇員或代理人對(duì)此均不承擔(dān)任何責(zé)任。除對(duì)本文內(nèi)容承擔(dān)責(zé)任的分析師除外，HTISG及我們的關(guān)聯(lián)公司、高級(jí)管理人員、董事和雇員，均可不時(shí)作為主事人就本文件所述的任何證券或衍生品持有長(zhǎng)倉(cāng)或短倉(cāng)以及進(jìn)行買(mǎi)賣(mài)。HTISG的銷(xiāo)售員、交易員和其他專(zhuān)業(yè)人士均可向HTISG的相關(guān)客戶(hù)和公司提供與本文件所述意見(jiàn)相反的口頭或書(shū)面市場(chǎng)評(píng)論意見(jiàn)或交易策略。HTISG可做出與本文件所述建議或意見(jiàn)不一致的投資決策。但HTIRL沒(méi)有義務(wù)來(lái)確保本文件的收件人了解到該等交易決定、思路或建議。請(qǐng)?jiān)L問(wèn)海通國(guó)際網(wǎng)站證券交易的第2241條規(guī)則之限制。IMPORTANTForresearchreportsonnon-Indiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongInternationalResearchLimited(“HTIRL”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHaitongInternationalSecuritiesGroupLimited(“HTISGL”)andalicensedcorporationtocarryonType4regulatedactivity(advisingonsecurities)forthepurposeoftheSecuritiesandFuturesOrdinance(Cap.571)ofHongKong,withtheassistanceofHaitongInternational(Japan)K.K.(“HTIJKK”),awhollyownedsubsidiaryofHTISGLandwhichisregulatedasanInvestmentAdviserbytheKantoFinanceBureauofJapan.ForresearchreportsonIndiansecurities:TheresearchreportisissuedbyHaitongSecuritiesIndiaPrivateLimited(“HSIPL”),anIndiancompanyandaSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)December2016.memberswithinHTISGintheirrespectivejurisdictions.Theinformationandopinionscontainedinthisresearchreporthavebeencompiledorarrivedatfromsourcesbelievedtobereliableandingoodfaithbutnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,ismadebyHTIRL,HTISCL,HSIPL,HTIJKKoranyothermemberswithinHTISGfromwhichthisresearchreportmaybereceived,astotheiraccuracy,completenessorcorrectness.Allopinionsexpressedhereinareasofthedateofthisresearchreportandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisresearchreportisforinformationpurposeonly.Descriptionsofanycompaniesortheirsecuritiesmentionedhereinarenotintendedtobecompleteandthisresearchreportisnot,andshouldnotbeconstruedexpresslyorimpliedlyas,anoffertobuyorsellsecurities.Thesecuritiesreferredtointhisresearchreportmaynotbeeligibleforpurchaseorsaleinsomejurisdictions.Ifaninvestmentproductisdenominatedinacurrencyotherthananinvestor'shomecurrency,achangeinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffecttheinvestment.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyindicativeoffutureresults.Certaintransactions,includingthoseinvolvingderivatives,giverisetoyouruniquefinancialcircumstances,suchasyourfinancialsituationandriskappetite.Youmust,therefore,analyzeandshould,whereapplicable,consultyourownlegal,tax,accounting,financialandotherprofessionaladviserstoevaluatewhethertherecommendationssuitsyoubeforeinvestment.NeitherHTISGnoranyofitsdirectors,employeesoragentsacceptsanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanydirectorconsequentiallossarisingfromanyuseofthematerialscontainedinthisresearchreport.HTISGandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployees,excludingtheanalystsresponsibleforthecontentofthisdocument,willfromtimetotimehavelongorshortpositionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsell,thesecuritiesorderivatives,ifany,referredtointhisresearchreport.Sales,traders,andotherprofessionalsofHTISGmayprovideoralorwrittenmarketcommentaryortradingstrategiestotherelevantclientsandthecompanieswithinHTISGthatreflectopinionsthatarecontrarytotheopinionsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTISGmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisresearchreport.HTIisundernoobligationtoensurethatsuchothertradingdecisions,ideasorrecommendationsarebroughttotheattentionofanyrecipientofthisresearchreport.PleaserefertoHTI’swebsiteforfurtherinformationonHTI’sorganizationalandadministrativearrangementssetupforthepreventionandavoidanceofconflictsofinterestwithrespecttoResearch.NonU.S.AnalystDisclosure:TheHTIanalyst(s)listedonthecoverofthisResearchis(are)notregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAandarenotsubjecttoU.S.FINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithcompaniesthatarethesubjectoftheResearch;publicappearances;andtradingsecuritiesbyaresearchanalyst.美國(guó)投資者的通知事項(xiàng)：HTIRL，HSPL或HTIJKKHTIRL，HSP，HTIJKKHTISG美國(guó)聯(lián)營(yíng)公司，均未在美國(guó)注冊(cè)，因此不受美國(guó)關(guān)于研究報(bào)告編制和研1934年“美國(guó)證券交易法”第15a-6條規(guī)定的豁免注冊(cè)的「美國(guó)主要機(jī)構(gòu)投資者」（jrU..InstitutilInvestor）和「機(jī)構(gòu)投資者」（.S.InstitutilInvestors）。在向美國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)投資者分發(fā)研究報(bào)告時(shí)，HaitongIntenatiolisUS)In.（HIUSA）HTIUS。HTIUSA340MadinAenu,12thlo,Nwok,NY1013，電話（21）351-605。HTIUSAU..isandhangeomio（S”）incialIndyReuyAuthoit,Inc（FIRA”）的成員。HTIUSA不負(fù)責(zé)編寫(xiě)本研HSP，HTIRL或HTIJKKHSP，HTIRL或HTIJKKAA第2241條規(guī)定的與目標(biāo)公司的交流，公開(kāi)露面和分析師賬戶(hù)持有的交易證券等限制。投資本研究報(bào)告中討論的任何非美國(guó)證券或相關(guān)金融工具（包括AD）有關(guān)非美國(guó)證券或相關(guān)金融工具的信息可能有限制。外國(guó)公司可能不受審計(jì)和匯報(bào)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及與美國(guó)境內(nèi)生效相符的監(jiān)管要求。本研究報(bào)告中以美元以外的其他貨幣計(jì)價(jià)的任何證券或相關(guān)金融工具的投資或收益的價(jià)值受匯率波動(dòng)的影響，可能對(duì)該等證券或相關(guān)金融工具的價(jià)值或收入產(chǎn)生正面或負(fù)面影響。美國(guó)收件人的所有問(wèn)詢(xún)請(qǐng)聯(lián)系：340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173Exceptasotherwiseindicatedbelow,anyRecipientwishingtodiscussthisresearchreportoreffectanytransactioninanysecuritydiscussedinHTI’sresearchshouldcontacttheHaitongInternationalsalespersonintheirowncountryorregion.NoticetoHongKonginvestors:TheresearchreportisdistributedbyHaitongInternationalSecuritiesCompanyLimited(“HTISCL”),whichisalicensedcorporationtocarryonType1regulatedactivitydecisionssolelyonthebasisoftheinformationcontainedinthisresearchreport.RecipientsofthisresearchreportaretocontactHTISCLsalespersonsinrespectofanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,theresearchreport.NoticetoU.S.investors:Asdescribedabove,thisresearchreportwaspreparedbyHTIRL,HSIPLorHTIJKK.NeitherHTIRL,HSIPL,HTIJKK,noranyofthenonU.S.HTISGaffiliatesisregisteredintheUnitedStatesand,therefore,isnotsubjecttoU.S.rulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalysts.ThisresearchreportisprovidedfordistributiontoanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisresearchreportshoulddosoonlythroughHaitongInternationalSecurities(USA)Inc.(“HTIUSA”),locatedat340MadisonAvenue,12thFloor,NewYork,NY10173,USA;telephone(212)3516050.HTIUSAisabroker-dealerregisteredintheU.S.withtheU.S.SecuritiesandExchangeCommission(the“SEC”)andamemberoftheFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthority,Inc.(“FINRA”).HTIUSAisnotresponsibleforthepreparationofthisresearchreportnorfortheanalysiscontainedtherein.UndernocircumstancesshouldanyU.S.recipientofthisresearchreportcontacttheanalystdirectlyoreffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsdirectlythroughHSIPL,HTIRLorHTIJKK.TheHSIPL,HTIRLorHTIJKKanalyst(s)whosenameappearsinthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwithFINRAand,therefore,maynotbesubjecttoFINRARule2241restrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.InvestingorbesubjecttoU.S.regulations.Informationonsuchnon-U.S.securitiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsmaybelimited.ForeigncompaniesmaynotbesubjecttoauditandreportingstandardsandregulatoryrequirementscomparabletothoseineffectwithintheU.S.ThevalueofanyinvestmentorincomefromanysecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstrumentsdiscussedinthisresearchreportdenominatedinacurrencyotherthanU.S.dollarsissubjecttoexchangeratefluctuationsthatmayhaveapositiveoradverseeffectonthevalueoforincomefromsuchsecuritiesorrelatedfinancialinstruments.AllinquiriesbyU.S.recipientsshouldbedirectedto:340MadisonAvenue,12thFloorNewYork,NY10173Attn:SalesDeskat(212)351中華人民共和國(guó)的通知事項(xiàng)：在中華人民共和國(guó)（下稱(chēng)“中國(guó)”，就本報(bào)告目的而言，不包括香港特別行政區(qū)、澳門(mén)特別行政區(qū)和臺(tái)灣）只有根據(jù)適用的中國(guó)法律法規(guī)而收到該材料的人員方可使用該材料。并且根據(jù)相關(guān)法律法規(guī)，該材料中的信息并不構(gòu)成“在中國(guó)從事生產(chǎn)、經(jīng)營(yíng)活動(dòng)”。本文件在中國(guó)并不構(gòu)成相關(guān)證券的公共發(fā)售或認(rèn)購(gòu)。無(wú)論根據(jù)法律規(guī)定或其他任何規(guī)定，在取得中國(guó)政府所有的批準(zhǔn)或許可之前，任何法人或自然人均不得直接或間接地購(gòu)買(mǎi)本材料中的任何證券或任何實(shí)益權(quán)益。接收本文件的人員須遵守上述限制性規(guī)定。加拿大投資者