中國氫能戰(zhàn)略-英

October

2023China’s

Hydrogen

Strategy:National

vs.

RegionalPlansByYushan

Lou

andAnne-Sophie

CorbeauWhile

theUSandEuropeanmediashavededicatedsigni?cantbandwidth

tothe

topicof

low-carbonhydrogen

in

theUnitedStatesandEurope,

theyhavereportedfar

lessonunfoldingdevelopmentsaround

that

topicinChina.

ThisdisparityisespeciallynotablebecauseChinastandsas

theforemostglobalplayer

inhydrogen

productionandconsumption.1

Thecountry’ssubstantialmarketsizeandextensiveindustrialinfrastructurenotonlyfacilitatefast

technologicaladvancementsin

thehydrogen

space,butalsoo?er

thepotential

toachieveeconomiesof

scale—twodevelopments

thatcansigni?cantlyin?uence

theglobalhydrogen

marketlandscape.Inlightof

thesecircumstances,itisessential

tounderstandChina’shydrogen

strategy,

includinghow

thecountryplans

tostartdecarbonizingitscurrenthydrogen

consumptionandexpandfutureuseandproduction.A

notablefeatureof

China’shydrogen

strategyis

thatitisnot,infact,singular,

butinsteadcomprisedof

anationalstrategyandamultitudeof

regionalstrategies.Since

thereleaseofChina’sMediumandLong-Term

Strategyfor

theDevelopmentof

theHydrogenEnergyIndustry(2021–2035)(referredtoas“theNationalPlan”)inMarch2022,2

therehasbeensigni?cantdevelopmentin

thecountry’shydrogen

space.However,theNationalPlan’stargetsfor

renewablehydrogen

productionmayappear

conservativegiven

thescaleof

hydrogen

consumptionin

thecountry:arangeof

100,000to200,000tonsper

year

by

2025representsonly0.3

to0.6

percentof

the33million

tons(Mt)of

fossil-basedhydrogen

consumedinChinain2020.3

(For

context,in2022,electrolytichydrogen’s

productionlevel

wasstillbelow100,000tonsglobally,andasof

early2023about4.5Mtof

renewablehydrogen

globallyby

2025hasbeencommitted

to,

planned,andThiscommentaryrepresents

theresearchand

viewsof

theauthors.Itdoesnotnecessarilyrepresent

the

viewsof

theCenter

onGlobalEnergyPolicy.

Thepiecemaybesubject

tofurther

revision.Contributions

toSIPA

for

thebene?tof

CGEP

are

generalusegifts,whichgives

theCenterdiscretioninhowitallocates

thesefunds.More

informationisavailableatwww.energypolicy./about/partners.Rare

casesof

sponsoredprojectsare

clearlyindicated.

|

1October

2023announced.4

Someregionsappear

morebullish,including

theEUwithitsaspirationalrenewablehydrogentargetof

up

to1Mtby

2024.5)Bycontrast,provinces,cities,andmunicipalitiesacrossChinahaveintroduced

their

ownhydrogen

developmentplans

thatestablishfar

moreambitiousrenewablehydrogen

goals.Hence,

theprovincialplans

viewed

together

mayo?er

amoreaccuratepictureof

China’shydrogen

industryover

thecomingdecades

than

theNationalPlan.Thiscommentaryanalyzes

thesesomewhatdivergentnationalandlocalhydrogen

strategiescomparatively

toprovideanuancedunderstandingof

China’sevolvinghydrogen

landscape.Itskey?ndingsare

asfollows:●●●The

targetsof

China’sprovincescombinedare

far

moreambitious

thanitsnational

targets,withInner

Mongolialeading

theway.

Thelatter

provinceisaiming

toreach480,000tonsofrenewablehydrogen

productionper

year

by

2025(2.5

to5

times

thenational

target).Chinamayhavesetaconservativenationalrenewablehydrogentargettotest

thewaters,allowinglocalgovernments

tochargeahead.Inner

Mongoliacouldreacharound60percentof

its2025

targetbasedonprojects

thatarecurrentlyunder

construction(and

excluding

thosestillin

theplanningstage,whichmayormaynotmaterialize).

Thisregionalonewouldlargelymeet

thenational

targetfor

renewablehydrogen.

While

theprovinces’

targetsmaynotbefullymet,

theyprovideamorerealistic

viewof

whatChinacanaccomplish.Thoughclimatemitigationiscertainlyonekey

underlyingdriver

of

China’shydrogen

strategy,industrialandeconomicmotivationsseemmoreprominentin

theshort

term.Chinahasplacedlessemphasisoncarbonintensity

than

theEUand

theUS,asevidencedbytheChinesegovernment’slack

of

aformalde?nitionof

renewablehydrogen.AnOverview

of

China’s

HydrogenLandscapeChinaholdsasubstantialshareof

globalhydrogen

production,contributingroughlyone-thirdoftotaloutputataround33Mtper

year.6

Thisproductionheavilyreliesonfossilfuels(79percent)—andabout21percentof

itoriginatesasindustrialby-product—resultingin360Mtof

CO

emissions.72Meanwhile,

thecontributionof

renewablehydrogen

remainsmarginal,accountingfor

less

than0.1percentof

production.8

AsshowninFigure1,China’sindustrialsector

playsapivotalroleindrivingthecountry’shydrogen

consumption.92

|

October

2023Figure1:China’shydrogen

productionandsectoralconsumption(2020)Hydrogenproduction

HydrogenconsumptionOther(0.02Mt/y)Heatcombustion(5Mt/y)By-product(7Mt/y)Ammonia(10-11Mt/y)Renewable(<0.1Mt/y)Refining(8-9Mt/y)Naturalgas(5Mt/y)Coal(21Mt/y)Methanol(7-9Mt/y)Source:

AdaptedfromInternationalEnergy

Agency(IEA),“Opportunitiesfor

HydrogenProductionwithCCUSinChina,”

November

2022,/assets/9c01430d-9e8f-4707-862c-35453b9e7d89/OpportunitiesforHydrogenProductionwithCCUSinChina.pdf.Rather

thanevenlydistributedacross

thecountry,hydrogen

productioninChinaisconcentratedin

thenorthwestandnortheasternregions(seeFigure2).

Thehighestproductionlevels

are

in

theAutonomousRegionof

Inner

Mongolia(hereafter

“Inner

Mongolia”)andShandong,eachof

whichaccountsfor

morethan4Mtper

year,

followedby

Xinjiang,Shaanxi,andShanxi,atmorethan3Mtper

year.

|

3October

2023Figure2:Distributionof

existinghydrogen

demand,industrialclusters,andrenewablehydrogenprojectsinChinaHydrogenprojectsMorethan5

projects2

to

5

projectsHydrogendemand(2020)1projectMorethan4

MtMorethan3

MtLessthan1MtMorethan2

MtNoprojectsMorethan1MtIndustrialclustersHeilongjiangNingdongEnergyandJilinChemicalBaseLiaoningXinjiangInnerMongoliaBeijingGansuTianjinHebeiShandongNingxiaShanxiBeijing-QinghaiTianjin-HebeiregionHenanJiangsuShaanxiShanghaiTibetAutonomousRegionAnhuiHubeiSichuanYangtzeZhejiangChongqingRiverDeltaJiangxiHunanFujianGuizhou“Hydrogencorridor”YunnanGuangdongGuangxiPearlRiverRegionHainanNote:Projectnumbersare

basedon

July2022dataandmaynotcover

allprojects.Seenote17for

detailedinformationabout

thescopeof

thiswork.Source:

AdaptedfromPing

AnSecurities(平安證劵),“HydrogenSeriesReport(1)

HydrogenProduction:By-ProductHydrogen

Takes

theLead,GreenHydrogenIsExpected

toOpenaNewEra”(氫能系列報告(一)制氫篇：副產氫占先機，綠氫有望開新局),December

2021,/download/A2_cms_f_20211223134624381328&direct=1&abc6969.pdf;

Tu

etal.,“Prospectsof

RenewableHydrogeninChinaandItsRoleinIndustrialDecarbonization,”EnergiePartnerSchaft,2022,https://www.energypartnership.cn/?leadmin/user_upload/china/media_elements/publications/2022/Agora/Prospects_of_Renewable_Hydrogen.pdf;XiaohanGong,Rainer

Quitzow,

and

AnatoleBoute,“China’sEmergingHydrogenEconomy:Policies,Institutions,

Actors,”

RIFSStudy,

January2023,/10.48481/rifs.2023.001.4

|

October

2023Thenorthwestandnortheastregionsare

alsoknownfor

highcoaloutput,underscoring

thestronglink

betweenhydrogen

productionandcoalresources.

Abundantcoalreservesinplaceslike

InnerMongolia,Shanxi,andShandong(northChina),whichcater

tothenearbypetrochemicalandchemicalsectors,supporthydrogen

productionandconsumption,which

typicallyoccur

within

thesamefacility.10

Thenorthwestisalsopositioned

tobecomeahubfor

renewablehydrogen

supplydue

toitshighabundanceof

renewableenergyresources.11

However,

given

thateastandsoutheastChinaare

anticipated

toemergeassigni?cantdemandcenterssoon,anewchallengein

theformof

ageographicaldisjuncturebetweenhydrogen

supplyanddemandwilllikelypresentitself.China’slack

of

transportinfrastructurerepresentsanadditionalchallenge:

thecountrycurrentlypossessesonly400kilometersof

hydrogen

pipelines.12

Recentinitiatives

todevelopinfrastructuresuchasshort-distancehydrogenpipelines,hydrogenrefuelingstations,andliquidhydrogenstoragefacilitiesare

primarilyconcentratedinfour

major

industrialclusters—theBeijing-Tianjin-HebeiRegion,

the

Yangtze

River

Delta,

thePearlRiver

Delta,and

theNingdongEnergyandChemicalIndustryBase(seeFigure2)—somaynotbeable

toconnectrenewablehydrogen

supplieswithprimarydemandcenters.China’s

NationalandRegionalHydrogenDevelopment

StrategiesComparedInSeptember

2021,Chinaannouncedwhatitcalledits“dual

carbongoal”of

carbonpeak

by

2030andcarbonneutralityby

2060.13

Asa?rststeptoward

achieving

thatgoal,China’sStateCouncilintroducedan

ActionPlanfor

CarbonDioxidePeakingBefore

2030,whichemphasized

theroleof

hydrogen

insectorssuchassteel,petrochemicals,and

transportation(includingheavy-dutyfreight),aswellas

technologiessuchasrenewablehydrogen

production.14

Thiswassoonfollowedbytheannouncementof

China’sNationalPlan,whichlaysout

the

visionfor

China’shydrogenindustryby

2035.

TheNationalPlanstrategicallypositionshydrogen

as:(1)

animportantpartofChina’sfutureenergysystem;

(2)animportantcarrier

for

achievingalow-carbonenergy

transitioninChina;and(3)

akey

emergingindustryanddevelopmentdirectionof

futureindustriesinChina.15Whilemostof

China’sspeci?c

targetsin

thisstrategicplanare

for

2025,manyother

countries’nationalhydrogen

strategiesoutlinequanti?ed

targetsfor

2030(and

beyond),whichcancreatetheperception

that

their

strategiesare

moreambitious.China’splan,however,

includes

thelong-term

vision

tofullyestablish

thehydrogen

industry

valuechainby

2035.Nonetheless,amongthemostimportantof

these2025

targetsis

thedeploymentof

50,000

fuelcell

vehiclesand

theproductionof

0.1

to0.2

Mtof

renewablehydrogen

toward

abroader

goalof

reducingannualCO2emissionsby

1million

to2million

tonsby

2025.16Other

highlightsfromtheNationalPlanincludeanaim

toestablishahydrogen

supplysystemthat

|

5October

2023usesbothindustrialby-producthydrogen

andrenewablehydrogen;meanwhile,

theuseof

carboncaptureandstorage

technologies

toproducehydrogen

fromfossilfuelsisabsentfromthestrategy.Theshort-termemphasisonutilizingby-producthydrogen

(whichisunique

toChina)isdue

tothesubstantial

volumeof

wastedby-producthydrogen

(largelyfossil-based)extractedfromindustrialwastegasinsectorssuchascoking,chlorine,andpropanedehydrogenation.

Alignedwith

thisplan,numerouslocalgovernments(e.g.,

Anhui,Shanxi,

Jilin,Hebei,Shandong,andHunan)prioritizeby-producthydrogen

as

theprimarysupplysource

through2025.

Thedevelopmentof

collectionandpuri?cation

technologiesfor

thishydrogen

isalsogivenpriorityacrossregions.TheNationalPlanmarkedasigni?cantshiftinChina’soverall

energystrategyby

makinghydrogenafundamentalcomponentof

itsemergingenergysystem,

positioning

thecountrywell

toachievegloballeadershipinhydrogentechnologiessuchasfuelcell

vehiclesandelectrolyzers.Outof

the34regions

thatmake

upChina,17

18haveindependentlyintroduced

their

ownhydrogen

industry14thFive-YearPlan,astrategicblueprintoutliningaprovince’s

economicandsocialdevelopmentgoalsovera?ve-year

period,while

theothershaveincorporatedhydrogen

into

their

broader

industrialstrategies(see

Table

1).Given

their

considerationof

diverseprovincialresources,infrastructurecapacities,andstrengths,

theseregional-levelstrategieshold

valuableinsights.Onecriticalconclusion

thatcanbedrawnfromthemis

thatlocalpolicyandindustrydevelopmentsare

alreadymovingfar

beyondtheconservative

targetsof

theNationalPlan.

Theregions’cumulative

targetsfor

renewablehydrogen

amount

toover1.1to1.2Mtby

2025,or

5

to12

times

thenational

target(seeTable

1).18

For

instance,Inner

Mongoliahasanambitiousobjectiveof

480,000tonsof

renewablehydrogen

by

2025,morethan

twice

thenational

target.6

|

October

2023Table

1:China’sregionalhydrogen

developmentplansHydrogen

valuechainApplicationandinfrastructureProductionPlanningphaseTransportationRefHydrogenfuelingRenewable

By-product/Fuel-cell

vehicles*stations(tons)other

(tons)MunicipalitiesBeijing

北京市20232025377430103,00010,0002,0001,000900[19]Chongqing

重慶市

2025[20][21]Tianjin2022202520252035天津市Shanghai7010,000[22]上海市Northeast(東北)Heilongjiang2025202520305[23][24]Province黑龍江JilinProvince60,000–80,0001070500吉林300,000–400,0007,0002035202520351.2–1.5mill.4003070,0003,000Liaoning[25]Province

遼寧500150,000North

(華北)HebeiProvince2025100,000200,00010010,000[26][27]河北ShanxiProvince2025203010,00050,000山西East

(華東)JiangsuProvince

20255010,000[28]江蘇Continuedonnextpage

|

7October

2023Hydrogen

valuechainandinfrastructureApplicationPlanningphaseProductionTransportationFuel-cell

vehicles*RefHydrogenfuelingRenewable

By-product/stations(tons)other

(tons)East

(華東)(cont’d)Zhejiang2025505,000[29][30]Province

浙江AnhuiProvince2025203020352025305,000安徽12020,000FujianProvince福40104,000500[31][32][33]福建JiangxiProvince

20251,000江西Shandong202220252030303,000Province

山東10020010,00050,000SouthCentral

(中南)HenanProvince20255,0001,250500[34][35][36][37][38]河南HubeiProvince20252025202510湖北HunanProvince10湖南Guangdong100,0003001010,000500Province

廣東GuangxiZhuang

2025Autonomous2000Region

廣西HainanProvince-[39][40]海南Southwest

(西南)SichuanProvince

2025606,000四川Continuedonnextpage8

|

October

2023Hydrogen

valuechainandinfrastructureApplicationPlanningphaseProductionTransportationRefHydrogenfuelingRenewable

By-product/Fuel-cell

vehicles*stations(tons)other

(tons)Southwest

(西南)(cont’d)Guizhou

Province

202510,000151,000[41][42][43]貴州Yunnan

Province云南Tibet

Autonom-ousRegion

西藏Northwest

(西北)ShaanxiProvince

202430,000505,000[44]陜西202510010,000GansuProvince2025200,000[45][46]甘肅NingxiaHuiAutonomousRegion寧夏2025203080,000300,00040,00010500QinghaiProvince

20253

to4100[47][48]青海XinjiangUygurAutonomousRegion

新疆2025202510,0001,500Inner

MongoliaAutonomousRegion

內蒙古480,0001,120,000605,000[49]RenewableHydrogenProductionby

20251,101,000to1,121,000Quanti?edgoals/objectivesMentionedin

theplanRankedin

top?vewind-basedenergyproductionRankedin

top?vecoal-basedenergyproductionRankedin

top?ve

solar-basedenergyproductionNote:

Major

coal,solar,

and

windpower

producers

are

de?ned

asany

province/region

ranked

asa

top

?veproducing

region

inChinaaccording

to

2020

data.

Tianjinpublishedits14thFive-Year

Planfor

theenergyindustry

in2022,

whichincludeda

target

of

900fuelcell

vehicles

by

2025.

Thisisanupdate

anda

reduction

fromthe

target

set

for

2022,

publishedinitshydrogenindustry

development

actionplanin2020.

*Types

of

fuel-cellvehicles

aren’t

speci?ed.

They

couldencompasspassenger

vehicles,

buses,heavy-duty

trucks,

forklifts,

or

other.Source:

Authors’analysisof

governmentreports.

|

9October

2023Localizedhydrogen

strategiesaretailored

toleverage

regionaladvantagesandinfrastructure,leading

to

variedapproachesacrossprovinces.Regionswithabundantrenewableresources,suchasSichuanwithitshydropower

potential,prioritizerenewablehydrogen

production

viahydropower.Incontrast,coal-richregions,suchasShanxi,primarilyfocusonindustrialby-producthydrogenfromcoal-chemicalproduction.Regionswithanabundanceof

bothrenewableandcoalresources,suchasInner

Mongolia,adoptadiversi?edapproach.Di?erent

regions

alsoprioritize

di?erent

applicationsaccording

totheir

uniqueneeds.For

instance,Inner

Mongolia,

Shanxi,andShaanxiaim

to

deploy

hydrogen

for

fuelcellforklifts

and

trucks

tocontribute

to

miningoperations,

whileZhejiangfocuses

onleveraging

hydrogen

for

combinedpowerandheatingas

well

asfuelcellelectric

vehicles

(FCEVs)

initspublicandport

logistics

transportationsystem.

On

theother

hand,allregions

emphasize

establishing

hydrogen

refueling

stations

anddeploying

FCEVs

(see

Table

1),

withmany

identifying

speci?cquantities

of

each

thatshouldbeachieved.

Thisisconsistent

withChina’s

longstanding

policy

of

promoting

FCEV

development,

bothpassenger

vehicles

and

trucking,

through

theexpansion

of

hydrogen

refueling

infrastructure

andother

related

technological

innovations.50

TheNational

Planonly

reinforces

thispolicy.Overall,China’sregionalstrategiesshow

thatlocalgovernmentswillplayacrucialrolein

theearlystagesof

China’shydrogen

development,enabling

thecentralgovernment

to“test

thewaters”in

thehydrogen

sector.51

Localgovernmento?cialsandsenior

managementinstate-ownedenterprisesare

alsocollaboratingwithcentralministries

toimplementhydrogen-relatedpolicies,suchasincentivizingFCEV

developmentandestablishingdemonstrationprojectsfor

otherhydrogen

applications,and

thepotentialfor

career

advancementincentivizes

them

toalignwiththenationalgovernment’sdevelopmentobjectives,whichinclude

theadvancementof

ahydrogeneconomyandaligning

the“dual

carbon”goal.52Inner

Mongolia:

A

Leader

inRenewableHydrogen

DevelopmentInner

Mongolia

occupiesa

distinctive

positionamongChina’s

regions:

its14thFive-Year

Planonhydrogen

development,

announcedin2022,

sets

themost

ambitiousrenewable

hydrogen

productiontarget

by

far

at480,000tons

per

year

by

2025.

Theregion

hasundergone

rapid

expansion

in

termsof

installed

renewable

hydrogen

production

capacity,

often

developed

by

major

state-ownedenterprises

(SOEs),

andwillhost

the

world’s

largest

renewable

hydrogen

coal-to-chemical

project,whichiscurrently

under

construction.53Several

factorscontribute

toInner

Mongolia’sability

toassumealeadershiproleinhydrogendevelopmentinChina.

Theregion:10

|

October

2023●●possessessubstantialsolar

andwindpotential,witha

technicallyexploitablewindandsolarenergyresourcesof

around57percentand21percentof

China’spotential,respectively,makingitidealfor

renewablehydrogen

production.54hasapre-existinglocalhydrogen

demand.Localindustries,suchassteelmanufacturing,ammoniaproduction,andoilre?ning,are

known

todemandsigni?cantamountsofhydrogen.55

Theregion’s

14thFive-YearPlanfor

hydrogen

developmenthighlights

thatover1.3Mtof

industrialby-producthydrogen

(fromcoal-chemicalprocesses)isgeneratedannually,87percentof

whichisconsumedby

industries.56

Replacingcoal-basedhydrogen

ensuresasubstantialnear-term

demandfor

renewablehydrogen.●bene?tsfromitsproximity

totheeasterneconomichub(Beijing-Tianjin-Hebeiregion).

The400-kilometer

Ulanqab-BeijingpipelineisnotonlyChina’s?rstlong-distancehydrogenpipeline,butalso

the?rst

tobeincludedinnationalplanning.

Withaninitialcapacityof

0.1million

tonsper

annum(Mtpa)and

thepotential

toexpand

to0.5

Mtpa,itconnectsUlanqabinInner

Mongolia

to

Yanshan

inBeijing.57Inorder

todeterminewhether

local

targetsare

abetter

benchmark

than

thenationalrenewablehydrogentarget,itiscrucial

toestimatewhether

Inner

Mongoliawillachieveits2025

target.Basedonpubliclyaccessiblestatistics,Inner

Mongoliahosts50renewablehydrogen

projects,ofwhich

three,

yieldingacombined10,884

tons/year

hydrogen

productioncapacity,are

operational.Moreover,

21projectswithacumulativecapacityof

over300,000tons/year

are

under

constructionandprojectedfor

completionby

2023or

2024(see

Table

2).

Thisrepresents63percentof

the480,000tons/year

by

2025goalestablishedbytheprovince’s

?ve-year

plan.

Another

26projectswithanaggregateproductionpotentialof

1million

tons/year

are

planned,witharound460,000tonsexpected

tobeonlineby

2025.Inner

Mongoliamaystillfallshortof

itsambitious2025

target,since

thereisuncertaintywhetherplannedprojectswillactuallymaterialize.

Theregion’s

ability

toreachitsambitious

targetdependsonprojectscurrentlyunder

constructionaswellasadditionalplannedprojects

thatare

supposed

tobeginconstructionsoon(see

Table

2).Given

thatplannedprojectsmaynevermaterialize,

theycanbeexcludedfromthe2025framework,but

thoseunder

constructionshouldbeincludedbecause

theyare

expected

tobecompletedby

2024at

thelatest.Basedsolelyonoperationalprojectsand

thosealreadyunder

construction,Inner

Mongolia’santicipatedannualhydrogen

outputsurpasses

thenational2025

targetof

100,000–200,000

tons/year.

Withplannedprojectsincluded,Inner

Mongolia’spotentialannualrenewablehydrogen

productioncapacitycouldreach1.4million

tons,exceeding

theaggregatedrenewablehydrogen

production

targetsannouncedacrossallregions.Mostprojectsare

locatedwithin

theindustrialzoneadjacent

tothe

|

11October

2023petrochemicalplantsinwhich

theywouldreplacegrayhydrogen.SOEsare

heavilyinvolved

in

thedevelopmentof

renewablehydrogen

projects(see

Appendix).WithinInner

Mongolia,32of

the50existingprojectsare

spearheadedby

SOEs,andanadditional6involve

collaborativee?ortsbetweenSOEsandprivateenterprises.Incontrast,privatecompaniesare

responsiblefor

only12projects.

Thispatternindicates

thatChina’sapproach

toadvancingrenewablehydrogen

ischaracterizedby

state-drivenfacilitationof

themarket.Table

2:Renewablehydrogen

projectsinInner

Mongoliaby

statusandexpectedcompletion

yearProjectstatusOperational2023(tons)10,8842024(tons)2025(tons)After

2025

(tons)Under68,871222,78225,600constructionAggregatedw.o.

planned79,755302,537302,537328,137Planned60,450323,22581,000643,300Aggreatedw.

planned140,205686,212767,2121,436,112Note:“Operational”referstoprojects

thatare

inproductionat

the

timeof

thewriting.“Plannedprojects”includeprojects

thathavebeenannounced,planned,and/or

committed

towithor

without?nalgovernmentapproval;“Aggregated

w.o.

planned”referstothecumulativeprojectedannualhydrogenproduction

volumein

tonsfromprojects

thatare

operationalandunder

construction;“Aggregated

w.

planned”referstothecumulativeprojectedannualhydrogenproduction

volumein

tonsfromprojects

thatare

operational,underconstruction,andplanned.

Theplannedprojectsare

not

yet

in

theconstructionphase,contributing

totheuncertaintyaround

them.Source:See

Appendix,

Table

A-1,

for

detailedreferenceinformation.De?ningHydrogenQuestionsmayberaisedabout

theextent

towhich

thehydrogen

producedfromtheseplantswillberenewable.

TheChinaHydrogen

Alliance,astate-backed

think

tank,proposed

theStandardandEvaluationof

Low-CarbonHydrogen,CleanHydrogen,andRenewableHydrogenframeworkin2021.However,thisframework

establishesarelativelyunambitious

thresholdof

14.51kilogramscarbondioxideequivalent(kgCO

e)

per

kilogramhydrogen

(kgH

)for

low-carbonhydrogen

(a22value

thatisabovethecurrentcarbonintensityof

fossil-basedhydrogen

produced

throughsteammethanereforming)and4.9kgCO

e/kgH

for

renewablehydrogen

(while

theEU’sthresholdis3.382212

|

October

2023kgCO

e/kgH

).58

Moreover,thedi?erentiationbetweenhydrogen

producedfromrenewablesources22andother

variantsremainsambiguouslyaddressedino?cialChinesegovernmentdocuments,including

therecentlypublishedhydrogen

industrialguideline.59Indeed,both

thecentralgovernmentandlocalgovernmentsrefer

to

“hydrogen”and“greenhydrogen”withoutprovidingexplicitde?nitions.

Ambiguityaroundhydrogenproductionmethodsisalsore?ectedin

thePRCEnergyLaw(Draft),whichdoesnotdi?erentiatebetween

varioushydrogenproductionapproaches.60

Consequently,China’scurrenthydrogenpolicylacksmechanisms

toregulate

thesourcesor

carbonintensityof

hydrogen

(e.g.,

by

requiring

that“renewable

hydrogen”beproducedexclusively