新視野大學(xué)英語(yǔ)第四冊(cè)-unit1B-Why-do-smart-people-do-dumb-things

./Whydosmartpeopledodumbthings?聰明人為何會(huì)做蠢事？Orthodoxviewsprizeintelligenceandintellectualrigorhighlyinthemodernrealmofuniversitiesandtechindustryjobs.Oneoftheunderlyingassumptionsofthisvaluesystemisthatsmartpeople,byvirtueofwhatthey'velearned,willformulatebetterdecisions.Oftenthisistrue.Yetpsychologistswhostudyhumandecisionmakingprocesseshaveuncoveredcognitivebiasescommontoallpeople,regardlessofintelligence,thatcanleadtopoordecisionsinexpertsandlaymenalike.傳統(tǒng)觀念將智力和思維的縝密性看作現(xiàn)代大學(xué)領(lǐng)域和科技產(chǎn)業(yè)工作的重要素質(zhì).這一價(jià)值體系所隱含的前提是,聰明人借助自己豐富的學(xué)識(shí)會(huì)作出更高明的決定.在大多數(shù)情況下,確實(shí)如此.但是,研究人類(lèi)決策過(guò)程的心理學(xué)家們卻發(fā)現(xiàn)了每個(gè)人身上都常見(jiàn)的"認(rèn)知偏差".不管智力水平如何,這些認(rèn)知偏差都會(huì)引導(dǎo)人們作出錯(cuò)誤的決定,不論他們是專(zhuān)家還是門(mén)外漢.Thankfullythesebiasescanbeavoided.Understandinghowandinwhatsituationstheyoccurcangiveyouanawarenessofyourownlimitationsandallowyoutofactorthemintoyourdecision-making.好在這些偏差是可以避免的.只要知道這些偏差如何及在何種情況下發(fā)生,你就能意識(shí)到自身的缺陷,并在決策過(guò)程中考慮到這些因素的影響.Oneofthemostcommonbiasesiswhatisknownasthefundamentalattributionerror.Throughthispeopleattributethefailuresofotherstocharacterflawsandtheirowntomerecircumstance,subconsciouslyconsideringtheirowncharacterstobestainless."Jenkinslosthisjobbecauseofhisincompetence;Ilostminebecauseoftherecession."Italsoleadsustoattributeourownsuccesstoourqualifications,discountingluck,whileseeingothers'successastheproductofmereluck.最常見(jiàn)的偏差之一就是通常所說(shuō)的"基本歸因錯(cuò)誤".犯這種錯(cuò)誤的人會(huì)將別人的失敗歸因于性格缺陷,而將自己的失敗僅僅歸因于周遭環(huán)境,潛意識(shí)中認(rèn)為自己的性格是完美無(wú)瑕的."詹金斯丟掉了工作是因?yàn)樗芰μ?我丟掉了工作則是因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)衰退."同樣,這種偏差也會(huì)讓我們將自己的成功歸功于自身素質(zhì)而不是運(yùn)氣,而將別人的成功僅僅看作是運(yùn)氣使然.Inotherwords,wetypicallydemandmoreaccountabilityfromothersthanwedofromourselves.Notonlydoesthisleadtopettyjudgmentsaboutotherpeople,italsoleadstofaultyriskassessmentwhenyouassumethatcertainbadthingsonlyhappentoothers.Forexample,youmightassume,withoutevidence,thatthepriceofyourhousewillgoupeventhough90percentofthemhavedroppedinprice,becauseyouyourselfaremorecompetent.換句話說(shuō),我們通常要求別人承擔(dān)更多的責(zé)任,而不是自己.這不僅導(dǎo)致我們心胸狹窄地對(duì)別人進(jìn)行評(píng)價(jià),也會(huì)由于假定某種壞事只會(huì)發(fā)生在別人身上而致使我們做出錯(cuò)誤的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)判.舉一個(gè)例子,你可能會(huì)毫無(wú)根據(jù)地假定自己的房子會(huì)升值,哪怕周?chē)俜种攀姆孔佣家呀?jīng)貶值了,因?yàn)槟憧傉J(rèn)為自己的能力更強(qiáng).Confirmationbiasissometimesfoundtogetherwithfundamentalattributionerror.Thisonehastwoparts.First,wetendtogatherandrelyuponinformationthatonlyconfirmsourexistingviews.Second,weavoidorvetothingsthatrefuteourpreexistinghypotheses."確定性偏差"有時(shí)會(huì)和"基本歸因錯(cuò)誤"一并出現(xiàn).這種偏差包含兩部分：第一,我們往往只收集且只依賴(lài)對(duì)我們的已有觀點(diǎn)起支持作用的信息；第二,我們回避或否認(rèn)那些與自己之前所持的假設(shè)相左的信息.Forexample,imaginethatyoususpectyourcomputerhasbeenhacked.Everytimeitstallsorhasalittleerror,youassumethatitwastriggeredbyahackerandthatyoursuspicionsarevalid.Thisbiasplaysanespeciallybigroleinrivalriesbetweentwoopposingviews.Eachsidepartitionstheirownbeliefsinalogic-proofloop,andclaimstheiropponentisfailingtorecognizevalidpoints.Outwittingconfirmationbiasthereforerequiresexploringbothsidesofanargumentwithequaldiligence.比如說(shuō),假設(shè)你懷疑自己的電腦受到了黑客攻擊,那么它每次死機(jī)或出個(gè)小錯(cuò),你都會(huì)認(rèn)定是由黑客引起的,而且你認(rèn)定自己的懷疑正確無(wú)誤.這種偏差在兩種敵對(duì)觀點(diǎn)的對(duì)抗中會(huì)起到尤其重要的作用.每一方都會(huì)把自己的觀點(diǎn)隔離出來(lái),認(rèn)為其在邏輯上無(wú)懈可擊,并聲稱(chēng)他們的對(duì)手忽略了某些要點(diǎn).所以,要克服"確定性偏差",就要以同樣的努力認(rèn)真探究論點(diǎn)的正反兩面.Similartoconfirmationbiasistheoverconfidencebias.Inanidealworld,wecouldbecorrect100percentofthetimewewere100percentsureaboutsomething,correct80percentofthetimewewere80percentsureaboutsomething,andsoon.Inreality,people'sconfidencevastlyexceedstheaccuracyofthosejudgments.Thisbiasmostfrequentlycomesintoplayinareaswheresomeonehasnodirectevidenceandmustmakeaguess-estimatinghowmanypeopleareinacrowdedplaza,forexample,orhowlikelyitwillrain.Tomakemattersworse,evenwhenpeopleareawareofoverconfidencebias,theywillstilltendtooverstatethechancesthattheyarecorrect.Confidenceisnoprophetandisbestusedtogetherwithavailableevidence.Whenwitnessesarecalledtotestifyinacourttrial,theconfidenceintheirtestimonyismeasuredalongwithandagainsttheevidenceathand.與"確定性偏差"相類(lèi)似的是"過(guò)度自信偏差".在一個(gè)理想的世界,當(dāng)我們百分之百地確信某件事時(shí),我們就百分之百地正確；當(dāng)我們百分之八十地確信某件事時(shí),我們就百分之八十地正確,以此類(lèi)推.但在現(xiàn)實(shí)中,人們的信心卻大大超過(guò)了其判斷的準(zhǔn)確度.在一個(gè)人缺乏直接證據(jù)而必須要作出某種猜測(cè)的情況下,這一偏差就最有可能起作用,比如,估計(jì)一個(gè)擁擠的購(gòu)物廣場(chǎng)有多少人,或下雨的可能性有多大.更糟糕的是,即使人們意識(shí)到自己有過(guò)度自信的偏差,他們還是會(huì)高估自己的正確率.光靠自信是無(wú)法進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)的,只有在切實(shí)證據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,自信才能發(fā)揮最大的作用.當(dāng)法庭傳喚目擊者出庭作證時(shí),對(duì)他們證詞的信任度是通過(guò)已經(jīng)獲取的相符或相反的證據(jù)來(lái)度量的.Theavailabilitybiasisalsorelatedtoerrorsinestimation,inthatwetendtoestimatewhatoutcomeismorelikelybyhoweasilywecanrecountanexamplefrommemory.Sincetheretentionandretrievalofmemoriesisbiasedtowardvivid,sensational,oremotionallychargedexamples,decisionsbasedonthemcanoftenleadtostrange,inaccurateconclusions.憑借回憶某一例證的難易程度來(lái)推測(cè)哪種結(jié)果更可能出現(xiàn).由于記憶的留存和重拾會(huì)因?yàn)槭录纳鷦?dòng)與否、震撼程度和情感觸動(dòng)程度的不同而產(chǎn)生偏差,那么,基于這些記憶所作出的決定也往往會(huì)是奇怪或不準(zhǔn)確的結(jié)論.Inactionthisbiasmightleadsomeonetocancelatripto,forexample,theCanaryIslandsbecauseofareportthatthebiggestplanecrashinhistoryhappenedthere.Likewisesomepeoplemightstopgoingoutatnightforfearofassaultorrape.在具體行為中,這種偏差可能會(huì)使某人取消比如前往加那利群島的行程,因?yàn)橛袌?bào)道說(shuō),史上最慘重的空難就發(fā)生在那里.同樣,人們也可能因懼怕遭到人身侵犯或者強(qiáng)暴而不敢再在晚上出門(mén).Repellingtheavailabilitybiascallsforanempiricalapproachtoaparticulardecision,onenotbasedontheobscuredrealityofvividmemory.Ifthereisalowincidenceofdisaster,likeonlyoneoutof100,000planelandingsresultsinacrash,itissafetoflytotheCanaryIslands.Ifoneoutofonemillionpeoplewhogooutisassaulted,itissafetogooutatnight.要排除"可得性偏差",就必須在作某一具體決定時(shí),以實(shí)證方法所取得的證據(jù)為依據(jù),而不是以與現(xiàn)實(shí)不太相符的某個(gè)鮮明的記憶為依據(jù).如果災(zāi)難的發(fā)生率很低,比如飛機(jī)著陸過(guò)程中墜毀的可能性只有十萬(wàn)分之一,那么飛往加那利群島就仍是安全的.如果人們外出只有百萬(wàn)分之一的幾率遭到人身侵犯,那么夜晚出行也就仍是安全的.Thesunkcostfallacyhasaperiodicapplicationandwasfirstidentifiedbyeconomists.Agoodexampleofhowitworksisthecasinoslotmachine.Gamblerswithahighthresholdforriskputmoneyintoaslotmachinehopingforabigreturn,butwitheachpullofthelevertheylosesomemoneyplayingtheodds.Iftheyhavebeenpullingthelevermanytimesinarowwithoutsuccess,theymightdecidethattheyhadbetterkeepspendingmoneyatthemachine,ortheywillhavewastedeverythingtheyalreadyputin."沉沒(méi)成本謬誤"也時(shí)有發(fā)生,它最初是由經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家發(fā)現(xiàn)的.其作用機(jī)理最好的例證就是賭場(chǎng)老虎機(jī).賭徒們冒著高風(fēng)險(xiǎn),把錢(qián)投入老虎機(jī),期望能夠得到很大的回報(bào),但隨著一次次拉動(dòng)拉桿,他們也一次次把錢(qián)賭輸了.如果他們多次連續(xù)拉動(dòng)拉桿而沒(méi)有一次成功,他們可能會(huì)決定最好還是繼續(xù)把錢(qián)投入老虎機(jī),否則他們之前投入的成本就悉數(shù)浪費(fèi)了.Thetruthisthateverypulloftheleverhasthesamewinningprobabilityofnearlyoneinatrillion,regardlessofhowmuchmoneyhasbeenputinbefore-thepreviousplaysweresunkcosts.而事實(shí)是,不論他們之前投入了多少錢(qián),每一次拉動(dòng)拉桿的成功幾率都同樣是極小的——之前投入的那些即為沉沒(méi)成本.Ineverydaylifethiscanleadpeopletostayindamagingsituationsbecauseofhowmuchtheyhavealreadyputin,stuckontheerrone