國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：卡塔爾：2023年第四條磋商報(bào)告

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

IMFCountryReportNo.24/43

QATAR

January2024

2023ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION—PRESSRELEASE;ANDSTAFFREPORT

UnderArticleIVoftheIMF'sArticlesofAgreement,theIMFholdsbilateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyear.Inthecontextofthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithQatar,thefollowingdocumentshavebeenreleasedandareincludedinthispackage:

●APressRelease.

·TheStaffReportpreparedbyastaffteamoftheIMFfortheExecutiveBoard'sconsiderationonalapse-of-timebasis,followingdiscussionsthatendedon

November14,2023withtheofficialsofQataroneconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Basedoninformationavailableatthetimeofthesediscussions,thestaff

reportwascompletedonDecember18,2023.

·AnInformationalAnnexpreparedbytheIMFstaff.

Thedocumentslistedbelowhavebeenorwillbeseparatelyreleased.

·SelectedIssues

TheIMF'stransparencypolicyallowsforthedeletionofmarket-sensitiveinformationandprematuredisclosureoftheauthorities'policyintentionsinpublishedstaffreportsandotherdocuments.

Copiesofthisreportareavailabletothepublicfrom

InternationalMonetaryFund·PublicationServicesPOBox92780·Washington,D.C.20090

Telephone:(202)623-7430·Fax:(202)623-7201

F-mail:publications@imforgWebhtto·//wwwimforg

Price:$18.00perprintedcopy

InternationalMonetaryFund

Washington,D.C.

◎2024InternationalMonetaryFund

PRESSRELEASE

PR24/39

IMFExecutiveBoardConcludes2023ArticleIVConsultation

withQatar

FORIMMEDIATERELEASE

Washington,DC:OnJanuary11,2024,theExecutiveBoardoftheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)concludedtheArticleIVconsultation'withQatar,andconsideredandendorsedthestaffappraisalwithoutameeting.2

Qatar'sdecade-longeffortstodiversifytheeconomyculminatedintothesuccessfulhostingof

the2022FIFAWorldCup.Afterverystrongperformancein2022onthebackofWorldCup-inducedbuoyancyandhighhydrocarbonprices,growthhasbeennormalizing,withrealGDPgrowthin2023projectedat1.6percent.Growthnormalizationisexpectedtocontinueinthenearterm,withnon-hydrocarbongrowthsupportedbyinvestmentinpublicprojects,

constructionoftheNorthFieldLNGexpansionproject,andtheirspilloverstologistics,

manufacturing,andtrade.VisibilitybroughtbytheWCcouldcontinuetoboosttourism.

Medium-termgrowthisexpectedtoaveragearound5%percent,boostedbysignificantLNGproductionexpansionandinitialreformgainsfromimplementingtheThirdNational

DevelopmentStrategy(NDS3),settobereleasedsoon.Asglobalcommoditypricesdeclineanddomesticdemandnormalizes,headlineinflationwilllikelyeasetobelow3percentin

2023,andfurthertoaround2percentoverthemediumterm.

Amidhighhydrocarbonprices,bothfiscalandcurrentaccountpositionsstrengthened

significantlyin2022,withsurplusesreaching10%percentofGDPand26VpercentofGDP,respectively.Boththefiscalandcurrentaccountswilllikelyremaininsizeablesurplus

supportedbyelevated,albeitdeclining,hydrocarbonpricesprojectedforthemediumterm,andQatar'sLNGproductionexpansion,coupledwithincreasingdemandfromAsiaand

Europe

Banksarewell-capitalized,liquid,andprofitable,withthecapitaladequacyratioandreturnonequityat19and14.6percent,respectively,inthesecondquarterof2023.Banks'nonresidentdepositsfellbymorethanone-thirdfromtherecentpeak,partiallyreplacedbyhigherpublicsectordomesticdeposits,reducingvulnerabilitiesamidtightglobalfinancialconditions.TheNPLratiocontinuedtoedgeupto3.8percentbuttheprovisioningcoverageratioisrelativelyhigh,closeto80percent.Bankswereresilienttothefinancialmarketturmoilfromadvancedeconomiesinearly-2023.

Structuralrefomscontinuetoprogress,includingtoenhanceprotectionandmobilityof

expatriatelabor,improvethebusinessenvironment,promotepublic-privatepartnerships,andfurtherattractprivateinvestmentthroughtheresidencyprogramandbroadenedforeign

ownershipprovisions.ThepensionschemehasbeenexpandedtomoreQatarisintheprivatesectortopromoteprivatesectoremployment.Digitalizationhascontinuedtoadvance,and

1underAricleVoftheIMF'sAriclesofAgreementtheIMFholdsblateraldiscussionswithmembers,usuallyeveryyearAstaff

teamvisitsthecountry,collectseconomicandfinancialinformation,anddiscusseswithofficialsthecountry'seconomicdevelopmentsandpolicies.Onreturntoheadquarters,thestaffpreparesareport,whichfommsthebasisfordiscussionbytheExecutiveBoard.

2TheExecuiveBoardtakesdecisionsunderitslapse-oftimeprocedurewhentheBoardagreesthataproposalcanbeconsideredwithoutconveningfommaldiscussions.

70019thStreetNW

Washington,DC20431

USA

IMF.org

2

manyclimateinitiativesguidedbytheNationalEnvironmentandClimateChangeStrategyand

theClimateChangeActionPlanarebeingimplemented.TheupcomingNDS3isexpectedtoprovideanambitiousreformagendatoguidethetransformationtowardaprivatesector-led,knowledge-based,morediversifiedandgreenereconomy,asenvisagedunderQatar’s

NationalVision2030.

Riskstotheoutlookarebroadlybalanced.Maindownsiderisksstemfromanunfavorableglobalenvironment.Inparticular,whiletheconflictinGazaandIsraelhashadnovisible

impactonQatar,ifitisprotractedorworsened,itcouldpotentiallyaffectQatarthroughmorevolatilehydrocarbonprices(althoughhigherpricescouldimprovefiscalandexternal

positions),lowertourismandinvestment,aswellasmorecostlyexternalfundingforbanks.

Domestically,moreprotractedorsevererealestatemarketweaknessescouldnegatively

affectthebankingsystemandthebroadereconomy.Ifdownsiderisksmaterialize,Qatarhasstrongpolicybufferstomitigatethenegativeimpact.Ontheupside,acceleratedreformeffortsguidedbyNDS3couldfurtherpromotediversificationandboostpotentialgrowth.

ExecutiveBoardAssessment

Inconcludingthe2023ArticleIVconsultationwithQatar,ExecutiveDirectorsendorsedstaff’sappraisal,asfollows:

Qatarhasremainedresilienttotherecentglobalshocksanditseconomicoutlookisfavorable.Outputgrowthisnormalizingasexpectedfromthe2022WC-drivenboom.Thenation’s

favorablemedium-termoutlookissupportedbythesignificantexpansionofLNGproductionintheNFandexpectedgainsfromtheimplementationofNDS3.Risksarebroadlybalanced.

MaintainingprudentmacroeconomicpolicyandintensifyingreformeffortswillsupportQatar’sresiliencetoshocksandaccelerateitseconomictransformation.

Thefiscalstrategyshouldbalancedisciplinewithgrowthintheneartermandfacilitatethetransitiontomorediversified,privatesector-ledgrowthoverthemediumterm.Ifdownsideriskstogrowthmaterializeandtheongoinggrowthslowdownsharpens,somefiscalspacecouldbedeployedthroughproductiveandefficientspendingwhilemaintainingbroadfiscalprudence.Inthemediumterm,fiscalstrategyshouldaimatsustainingprudentand

countercyclicalpolicy,acceleratingrevenuediversificationincludingviaVATintroduction,enhancingcurrentexpenditureefficiencybyrationalizingwagebillandgraduallyremoving

remainingsubsidies,andreorientingexpenditurefromtraditionalinfrastructuretoreformsthatfacilitatetransformationtoaprivatesector-ledgrowthmodel.Amedium-termfiscalframeworkanchoredaroundmaintainingintergenerationalequity,complementedbygreaterfiscal

transparency,willsupporttheimplementationofthefiscalstrategy.

Theauthoritiesareencouragedtocontinuesafeguardingfinancialstability.TheQCBshouldcontinueitsproactivesupervisionandregulation,supportedbyregularriskanalysisand

informationsharingamongthefinancialsupervisorstohelpidentifyemergingvulnerabilitiesandguideregulatoryactions.Theauthorities’planstodeependomesticcapitalmarketsarewelcomeaswellasmeasurestomitigaterisksassociatedwithbanks’exposuretoshort-termforeignfunding,whichshouldbereviewedregularly.Equallyimportantistocarefullybalanceopportunitiesandrisksassociatedwiththenation’sFintechandgreenfinancinginitiativesandputinplaceadequateregulations.Qatar’ssignificantprogressonthetechnicalcompliance

withtheFATFStandardsiscommendable,andtheauthoritiesareencouragedtoimplementtheFATFactionplandecisively.

3

Theexchangeratepegcontinuestorepresentacrediblemonetaryanchor.Qatar’sexternalpositionin2022wasassessedtobesubstantiallystrongerthanthelevelimpliedbymedium-termfundamentalsanddesirablepolicies,mainlyduetotheelevatedhydrocarbonprices.

Furthereffortstostrengthenliquiditymanagementandcoordinationamongthefiscalandmonetaryauthoritiesarerecommended.Deepeningdomesticfinancialmarketsand

maintaininglowcurrencymismatchesonbankbalancesheetswouldfurtherreducevulnerabilitiesandenhancemonetarypolicytransmission.

Reformeffortsshouldbeintensifiedtoshiftfromatraditionalstate-ledgrowthmodeltoamoredynamic,knowledge-based,privatesector-drivenone.Attractingmoreskilledexpatriates,

improvingeducationoutcome,incentivizingQatarinationalstotakeupprivatesectorjobs,andraisingfemalelaborforceparticipationwillenhancehumancapitalandlabormarketdynamics.Inaddition,reformsareneededtopromotefurthertradeliberalization,easeaccesstofinance,andcontinueenhancingadministrativeefficiency.Thesemeasuresshouldbeimplemented

comprehensivelyinawell-sequencedmannertoboostpotentialgrowth.Furthering

digitalizationandclimateactionsarealsocritical.Broadeninggainsfromeconomiczonesandcenterstothewidereconomywouldaccelerateeconomicdiversification.

4

Qatar:SelectedMacroeconomicIndicators,2020–24

(Quota:735.1millionSDRs,2023)

(Percapitaincome:U.S.$80,626,2022)

(Lifeexpectancyatbirth:79,2021),(Population:2.9million,2022)

EstimatesProjections

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Productionandprices

RealGDP(2018prices)-3.6

1.6

4.2

1.6

1.9

Hydrocarbon1/-2.0

-0.3

1.7

2.6

1.7

Nonhydrocarbon-4.5

2.8

5.7

1.0

2.0

CPIinflation(average)-2.5

2.3

5.0

2.8

2.4

Publicfinances

Revenue32.6

29.6

34.8

31.5

31.1

Expenditure34.7

29.3

24.3

23.9

23.9

Current22.0

18.3

15.5

15.6

15.8

Capital12.7

11.1

8.8

8.3

8.1

Centralgovernmentfiscalbalance-2.1

0.3

10.6

7.6

7.2

Money

Broadmoney3.8

1.4

17.4

2.9

4.1

Credittoprivatesector8.3

9.5

7.4

3.9

4.5

Externalsector

Exports49.1

58.7

68.4

58.5

56.4

Imports40.9Currentaccountbalance(billionsofU.S.dollars)

34.1

31.5

32.2

32.7

inpercentofGDP-2.1

14.6

26.7

17.6

15.8

Externaldebt187.0

161.4

116.0

112.7

107.3

CentralBank'sreserves28.3

23.5

20.1

21.9

22.4

inmonthsofnextyear’simports

7.3

7.5

7.6

Exchangerate3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

-3.2

Realeffectiveexchangerate(change

inpercent)2/

-2.6

6.5

0.6

…

Sources:Qatariauthorities;andIMFstaffestimates.

1/Includescrudeoil,naturalgas,propane,butane,andcondensates.

2/LastobservationOctober2023.

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

QATAR

STAFFREPORTFORTHE2023ARTICLEIVCONSULTATION

December18,2023

KEYISSUES

Context:Afterverystrongeconomicperformancein2022,boostedbythesuccessful

hostingofthe2022FIFAWorldCup,outputgrowthhasbeennormalizing.High

hydrocarbonpricesfurtherstrengthenedfiscalandexternalpositions.Banksarestrong,althoughnon-performingloanscontinuedtoedgeup.ReformshavegainedmomentumandareexpectedtointensifyundertheupcomingThirdNationalDevelopmentStrategy.

Outlookandrisks:Growthnormalizationisexpectedtocontinueinthenearterm.Themedium-termoutlookisbolsteredbythemajorLNGproductionexpansionand

acceleratedreforms.Elevatedhydrocarbonpriceswilllikelysupportsizeablefiscalandcurrentaccountsurpluses.Riskstotheoutlookarebroadlybalanced.Qatar'sstrong

fundamentalsandpolicybufferscanhelpmitigatenegativeimpactfromadverseshocks.

Fiscalpolicy:Near-termfiscalstanceshouldbalancedisciplinewiththeneedtomaintaingrowthvitality.Themedium-termfiscalstrategyshouldbeunderpinnedbysustained

prudence,acceleratedrevenuediversificationincludingtheVATintroduction,and

enhancedspendingcompositionandefficiencytofacilitatethetransitiontoprivatesector-drivengrowth.Awell-designedandoperationalmedium-termfiscalframework,with

greaterfiscaltransparencyandcross-agencycoordination,willsupportthestrategy.

Monetaryandfinancialsectorpolicies:Theexchangeratepegcontinuestoservethecountrywell.MonetarypolicyinlinewiththeU.S.FederalReserve,supportedby

strengthenedliquiditymanagement,iswelcome.Continueddiligenceinbankingsupervisioniscriticalforfinancialstability.Domesticfinancialmarketdeepening,

complementedbyappropriatemacroprudentialpolicies,wouldalleviatebanks'relianceonshort-termforeignfunding.AdequateregulationsforFintechandgreenfinancingshouldbeputinplace.WithsignificantprogressmadeonthetechnicalcompliancewiththeFATFStandards,furtherimprovementisneededontheeffectivenessoftheAML/CFTframework.

Structuralreforms:Acomprehensiveandwell-sequencedreformpackageenhancing

humancapital,labormarketdynamics,andthebusinessenvironmentshouldguideQatar'stransformationtowardprivatesector-ledgrowth.Furtheradvancingdigitalizationand

acceleratingclimateactionswouldsupportthetransformationandgeneratenewsourcesofgrowth.Gainsfromthevariouseconomiczonesandcentersshouldbebroadenedtothewidereconomy.Finally,enhancementofmacroeconomicstatisticsshouldcontinue.

ApprovedBy

ZeineZeidane(MCD)andJarkkoTurunen(SPR)

QATAR

DiscussionswereheldinDohaduringNovember1–14,2023.ThestaffteamcomprisedMmes.Bi(head)andRehman,Messrs.

Miyajima(allMCD)andPierri(FAD).Ms.Fayez(OED)joinedmissionmeetingsandMr.Zeidane(MCD)theconcludingmeetings.Mr.Yuanprovidedresearchassistance.Mr.DeAsisandMs.Georgeprovidededitorialsupport.

CONTENTS

CONTEXT

4

RECENTECONOMICDEVELOPMENTS

6

OUTLOOKANDRISKS

8

POLICIESTOSTRENGTHENSTABILITYANDACCELERATEECONOMICTRANSFORMATION

11

___________________________________________________________________________________________________

A.BalancingFiscalDisciplinewithAspirationsforTransformation

11

B.SafeguardingFinancialStabilityamidGlobalUncertainty

15

C.FurtherEnhancingMonetaryPolicyEffectiveness

18

D.AcceleratingStructuralReformsforEconomicTransformation

19

E.EnhancingStatisticsCollectionandProvision

24

STAFFAPPRAISAL

24

BOXES

1.StateoftheRealEstateSectorinQatar

9

2.Qatar’sDigitalEvolution:ProgressandImpact

23

FIGURES

1.KeyIndicatorsofEconomicTransformationinQatar

5

2.RealSectorDevelopments

26

3.InflationandMonetaryPolicyDevelopments

27

4.ExternalSectorDevelopments

28

5.FiscalSectorDevelopments

29

6.CreditandFinancialSectorDevelopments

30

7.IndicatorsofRealEstateSectorPerformance

31

2

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TABLES

1.SelectedMacroeconomicIndicators,2019-28

32

2.BalanceofPayments,2019-28

33

3a.SummaryofCentralGovernmentFinance,2019-28(BillionsofQatariRiyals)

34

3b.SummaryofCentralGovernmentFinance,2019-28(PercentofGDP)

35

4.MonetarySurvey,2019-28

36

5.FinancialSoundnessIndicators,2016-2023Q2

37

6.VulnerabilityIndicators,2016-22

38

ANNEXES

I.Qatar’sNaturalGas:GlobalPositioningandProspects

39

II.ExternalDebtSustainabilityAnalysis

44

III.ExternalSectorAssessment

47

IV.RiskAssessmentMatrix

50

V.Implementationofthe2022ArticleIVRecommendations

52

VI.FiscalandDebtSustainabilityAssessment

54

VII.TheImpactofRenewableInvestmentinQatar

63

VIII.KeyStructuralReformsin2018-23

68

IX.PromotingGenderEquality:EnhancingWomen’sWorkforceinQatar

69

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CONTEXT

1.Qatar’sdecade-longeffortstodiversifytheeconomyculminatedintothesuccessful

hostingofthe2022FIFAWorldCup(Figure1).Qatar’sdecisiveresponsetotheCOVID-19

pandemicallowedasafeenvironmentfortheWorldCup(WC),thefirstmajorglobalsportevent

sincethehealthcrisis,andthefirstWCheldintheArabworld.About1millionvisitorsarrivedin

Qatar,ofwhich0.3millionstayedin(andcommutedfrom)neighboringGCCcountries,generating

positiveregionalspillovers.Beyondtheimmediategrowthimpactofupto1percentof2022GDP

(similartocross-countryexperiences),Qatarhasalsobenefittedfromthedecade-longinvestment

programintherunuptotheevent(worthUS$200–US$300billion),mostlyingeneralinfrastructuresuchastheport,metro,andrailways,contributingonaverage5–6percentagepoints(ppts)annuallytonon-hydrocarbonoutputgrowth.1TheWChasleftalastinglegacy––top-notchinfrastructurewasbuiltwithenhancedsustainability;QatarbecamethefirstGCCcountrytoabolishtheKafalasystem,awelcomefirststeptoimproveexpatriates’laborprotectionandmobility;andthenationhas

boosteditsglobalvisibility.

2.Importantstrideshavebeenmadeinenhancingmacroeconomicresilienceand

economictransformation.Qatarhasnavigatedtherecentglobalshocksrelativelysmoothly.Itsreal

non-hydrocarbonGDPlevelhasreturnedtothepre-pandemictrend,astheWCaccelerated

recoveryintheservicesectorshithardbytheCOVID-19crisis.Fiscalandcurrentaccountsurplusesreachedhighlevelsthankstoelevatedhydrocarbonpricesandbroadlyprudentpolicies.TheRussianwarinUkrainehashighlightedtheimportanceofliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)insafeguardingenergysecuritywhileQatarisundertakingthepre-plannedmassiveNorthField(NF)LNGexpansion

(AnnexI).Structuralreformshavealsoadvancedinimprovinglabormarketflexibility,enhancinggovernmentefficiency,upgradingregulatoryenvironment,promotingdigitaltransformation,andacceleratingclimateactions.Qataristhusrankedrelativelyhighlyinglobalcompetitiveness

indicatorsandisinastrongpositiontofurtherdiversifytheeconomy,guidedbytheupcomingThirdNationalDevelopmentStrategy(NDS3),toachievetheQatarNationalVision(QNV)2030.

1SelectedIssuesPaper“2022FIFAWorldCup:EconomicImpactonQatarandRegionalSpillovers.”

QATAR

5

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

Figure1.KeyIndicatorsofEconomicTransformationinQatar1/

Qatar’snon-hydrocarbonrealoutputreturnedtothepre-COVID-19trend...

Non-HydrocarbonRealOutput

(Inlog,2019=100)

…andthenation’sfiscalbalanceimprovedamidhydrocarbonwindfallsandspendingdiscipline.

FiscalPerformanceandOilPrices

40

20

0

-20

Fiscalstance(+=consolidation)

Overallfiscalbalance(%ofGDP)

Oilprices(right,US$perbarrel)

10121416182022

200

100

0

…andthenation,amongotherGCCeconomies,excelsingovernmentdigitaltransformation.

MaturityinGovTech

(Between0-1,highervalue=betterperformance)

102

100

98

96

QatarOtherGCC

1416182022

Qatar’sinfrastructurequalityishigh…

IndicatorofInfrastructureQuality

(Percentileranks)

0

20

40

60

80

100

Higherquality

QatarOECDMENAPoilexporters

Qatarrankshighincludinginbasicinfrastructureandbusinessefficiency,butlagsineducationinfrastructure.

IndicatorsofCompetitiveness

(Percentileranks,highervalue=betterperformance)

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

UnitedArab

Emirates

SaudiArabia

Bahrain

GCC

Oman

Kuwait

World

EM

2020

2022

AE

0.00.20.40.60.81.0

Qatarachievedsignificantoutputdiversification,withscopeforfurtherfiscalandexportdiversification.

IndicatorsofEconomicDiversification

(Percent,non-hydrocarbonsector’sshareoftotal)

Basic

Infrastructure

Qatar2014

Qatar2023

80

60

40

20

0

20002022

QatarOtherGCCQatarOtherGCCQatarOtherGCC

OutputFiscalrevenueExportrevenue

OECD2023

Education

Infrastructure

GovernmentEfficiency

100

80

60

40

20

0

TechBusiness

Infrastructure

Efficiency

1/Fiscalstanceispercentagepointdifferenceinnon-hydrocarbonprimarybalanceinpercentofnon-hydrocarbonGDP.Infrastructurequalityusesnumericalrankingfor144countriesandisaverageofqualityofairtransport,roads,andports.Sources:HaverAnalytics;IMDCompetitivenessRanking;IMFInvestmentandCapitalStockDataset;PlanningandStatisticsAuthority,Qatar;andIMFstaffcalculations.

QATAR

RECENTECONOMICDEVELOPMENTS

3.Afterverystrongperformancein2022,economicgrowthhasbeennormalizing(TextFigureandFigure2).RealGDPgrowthacceleratedfrom1.6percentin2021to4.2percentin2022supportedbybuoyantnon-hydrocarbonoutputgrowth(5.7percent)onthebackofhigh

hydrocarbonpricesandWC-relatedactivities—serviceGDPgrewbymorethan20percentyear-on-year(yoy)inQ42022,exceedinghistoricalperformancebyseveralmultiples.Economicgrowth

normalizedin2023,reaching1.6percentyoyinH1withnon-hydrocarbongrowthof0.5percent(fromastrongbase),supportedbytheconstructionoftheNFexpansionprojectandresilient

tourismpostWC––visitorsin2023throughOctober(3.1million)was60percentabovethepre-

COVID-19average(2015–19).ThePurchasingManagersIndex(PMI)remainedinexpansionary

territory.Employmentbroadlyrecoveredtothepre-pandemiclevel,andpopulationcontinueditsupwardtrend,supportingdomesticdemand.Nominalbankcreditgrowthtotheprivatesector

slowedfrom9.5percentin2021to7.4percentin2022andfurtherto6.2percentinSeptember2023amidtighteningfinancialconditionsandreducedborrowingneedsfrompublicentitiesasWC-

relatedprojectswounddownandhydrocarbonrevenuewasstrong.

Population,EmploymentandMonetaryPolicy

PopulationandEmployment

(Inmillion)

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

Population

Employed

Pre-COVIDmaxCOVIDtrough2022Q42023Q1

NominalandRealPolicyDepositRates

(Inpercent)

10

6

2

-2

-6

-10

1standarddeviationrange

Real(relativetoinflationoutturn)

Nominal

0911131517192123

Sources:HaverandIMFstaffcalculations.

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