2024年的世界：全球大分化-國(guó)際政治研究所（英）

TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationTheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIES?2024ISPIViaClerici5–20121Milan–Italywww.ispionline.itTheWorldin2024:TheGreatFragmentationFirstedition:December2023CoverimagebyFrancescoFadaniTheopinionsexpressedinthispublicationdonotnecessarilyre?ectISPI’sposition.TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESGeopoliticsWarsThatBreakUsApart?Russia-UkraineAndreiKolesnikov(CEIPandISPI)7?Israel-GazaKarimMezran(AtlanticCouncilandISPI)10GlobalSouth:The“Rest”vstheWest?GustavoDeCarvalho(SAIIA)131619NoWorldforSuperowersSusanA.Thornton(YaleUniversity)TrustFailing,ArmRacingNanTian(SIPRI)ShatteredWest?USA2024:IfTrumpIsBackMarioDelPero(SciencesPoandISPI)2225?EuropeIsBack(ToSquareOne)AntonioVillafranca(ISPI)GeoeconomicsGolbalWorld:ChokingEnginesAliciaGarcíaHerrero(BruegelandISPI)3032BrokenValueChainsEmilyBenson(CSIS)TheWorldin2024theGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESEurope:TheSpectreofDe-industrializationNicolasK?hler-Suzuki(JacquesDelorsInstitute)353841DealingwiththeGreenBacklashDaveJones(Ember)DivideetAImpera:FakeNewsChangeGearsRohintonP.Medhora(CIGIandMcGillUniversity)ToWatch2024?Countrytowatch?Egypt,MarinaOttaway(WoodrowWilsonCenter)4550?Electiontowatch?India,PratapBhanuMehta(PrincetonUniversity)?Leadertowatch?BenjaminNetanyahu,AnshelPfe?er(Ha’aretzandTheEconomist)5356?MahmoudAbbas,TahaniMustafa(ICG)?Crisistowatch?Armenia-Azerbaijan,VickenCheterian(GenevaUniversity)5962?SudanandHornofAfrica,AlexdeWaal(WorldPeaceFoundation)|4TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationTheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESGEOPOLITICS|6TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESIWARSTHATnMarch2024,VladimirPutinwillrefreshhisownlegitimacyandrea?rmthatofhis“specialoperation”throughaquasi-electoralprocedureBREAKUSAPARTcalledthe“presidentialelectioninRussia”.Ano-alternative,approvingandoftencoerciveacclamation,whichhasmoretodowiththemediaevalNovgorodianveche(people’smeeting)thanwithmoderncompetitiveelections,thiswillallowPutintobelievethatthepeoplehavegivenhimamandatetocontinuehis“specialoperation”andrepressionwithinthecountry.Russia-UkraineAndreiKolesnikovCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace(CEIP)andISPISOCIALCONTRACTFortheaverageRussian,thereisonlyonepragmaticquestion–whether,afteranemotionalmobilisationintheformofarallyaroundthe?aginMarch2024,theKremlinwillannounceanothermobilisation,thistimeamilitaryone?Afterall,thisishowtheauthoritiescanreadtheresultofthe“presidentialelection”–theabilitytodowhateverAndreiKolesnikov,SeniorFellowattheCarnegieRussiaEurasiaCenterandaSeniorResearchAssociateFellowatISPI.|7TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationtheywantwiththebulkofthepopulationimmersedinlearnedindi?erence.However,despitetheapparentobedienceofthepopulation,raisingthelevelofanxietytounacceptablelevelsmeansbreakinganunwrittensocialcontract:you,theleadersofthecountry,drivenoteveryone,butonlysomepeopleintothetrenches,andmaintainasenseofnormalityineverydaylife,whilewe,thebulkofthepopulation,remainindi?erenttoeverythingbutourownconsumptionandsupportanyendeavouroftheauthoritiesingratitudeforthis.But,?rst,theexperienceofDonaldTrump’spresidencyshowsthatdespitethemutualcomplimentsoftwoextravagantleaders,relationsbetweentheU.S.andRussiahaveonlydegeneratedinapracticalsense.Second,somecountriesinEuropearemovingtotherightwhileothersareliberalising(theexampleofPolandisproofofthat),butthecontinuationofthemostbrutalslaughterontheEuropeancontinentisnotamongtheprioritiesandvaluesofevenextremeright-wingpoliticians.Finally,the“worldmajority”,thatis,thecountriesofthenon-Westernworld,forwhichPutinwantstobecomeabeaconandamoralauthority,followinginthefootstepsoftheUSSR,arepragmaticenoughtoaccepthishelpbutmaintainamulti-vectorpolicy.ThesameappliestotheCIScountries,whichPutin’sexpansionismscareso?ratherthanconvincingthemthattheRussianautocratisthelordofanewempirebuiltonthewreckageoftheUSSR.Putin,havingchosenanaggressivelineofbehaviour,haslostratherthangainedtheopportunitytorestoretheempire.ThiscontractisconvenientforPutin,butitisalsoconvenientforthetensofmillionsofpassiveconformistswhomakeuphissupportbase.Butiftheseconformistsaretakenoutoftheircomfortzone,eventheirbehaviourcanbecomeunpredictable.Thatiswhyitismorepro?tableforPutin,evenaftertheelections,tocontinuethe“background”warwithfurthermilitarisationoftheconsciousnessofhissubjects,butwithoutthephysicalinvolvementofthemajorityinhismilitaryexpansionism.Theideologicalinvolvementofthismajorityinhisimperialprojectof“returningandstrengthening”Russianlandswillsu?ce.BLACKSWANS“VICTORY”ANDFRAGMENTATIONInshort,fragmentationandevencon?ictsamongtheelitesoftheU.S.andEuropeancountriesdonotguaranteetheWest’srejectionofitsvaluesandsupportforUkraine,includingpractical?nancialandmilitaryassistance.Inanycase,eventhoughtheWestfeelswarfatigueandtheresourcestosupportUkrainearedwindling,thiswillnothelpPutinseriouslytoadvancehisexpansionismunlessheraisesthestakesandemployssome“miracleweapon.”Afterall,theRussianpopulation,forallitsindi?erenceandfocusonsurvivalandconsumption,isalsogrowingwearyofwar,andThiswillnotrequirePutintochangehisforeignpolicyline(ifwhatheisdoingcaninprinciplebecalledforeignpolicy),whichboilsdowntowaitingtoseeifthefragmentationoftheunitedfrontoftheWest,andindeedoftheworld,willleadtowhathemightcallhis“victory.”IthasbecomeabanalitytobelievethattheRussianautocratwillwaitpatientlyfortheresultsofthepresidentialelectionsinvariouscountriesand,aboveall,intheUnitedStates.Andbesides,hewillhopeforthecorrectionofEurope.WarsThatBreakUsApart:Russia-Ukraine|8TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationresources–?nancial,military,human,emotional,psychological–arealsodwindling.fathersandsons.Andtherearecircumstancesofobviousinjustice:realmurdererswhohavebeeninprison,aftersixmonthsofarmyservicereturnhomeasheroesandstartcommittingviolentcrimesagain,whilegoodobedientcitizenssitinthetrenchesformorethanayear,sometimesevenwithoutleave.Thisisnotyetananti-waroranti-Putinmovement,butitisanobviousnewphenomenonthatcouldtheoreticallydevelopintosomethingpolitical,although,giventhehighestlevelofrepressioninthecountry,thisisnotverylikely.ItusedtobethoughtthatPutin’seconomywouldcollapseandadisgruntledpopulationwouldteardownhisgovernment.Nowmainstreamassessmentshaveshiftedintheexactoppositedirection–Putinhasoutplayedeveryone,everythingis?newithhim,andhecanwaitinde?nitelyforvictory(whateverthatmaybe)tocomeonitsown.ButPutinisnotdoingwellintheeconomyandsocialsphere,andthingsarelookingbadforhisobjectiveofimprovingthequalityandquantityofhumancapitalduetodemographictrends,attritionoftheworkingpopulation,fallingbirthratescomplementedbyemigration,militarymobilisation,andobstaclestoplanningafamilyinuncertaincircumstances.Itmayseemnowthattheresourcesofhispoliticalsupportarelimitless,butnoonecanignorethephenomenonofblackswans:onlyin2023Putinsu?eredamilitarymutinybyPrigozhinandthediscontentofrelativesofthemobilised,demandingthereturnofhusbands,Bydrivingthestateintoamodelofhybridtotal-itarianismandsocietyintoasemi-mobilisedpo-sition,Putinmayhave“won”intheshortandme-diumterm.Buthehasde?nitelylostthefutureforRussia–thelong-termperspective,andthusdoomedthecountry(andtheworld)toanend-lessstalemate.ButastheanthropologistVladimirYurchakwrote,referringtotheeternalSovietem-pire,“itwasforeveruntilitwasover”.WarsThatBreakUsApart:Russia-Ukraine|9TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESIWARSTHATBREAKUSAPARTtisindeedaverydi?culttaskthatofassessingtheconsequences,directandindirect,ofawarsuchasthatbetweenIsraelandHamas,beforeanendisevenonsight.Itisclearthat‘how’thewarwillendwilldetermineitsexternalconsequences.Havingsaidthatthereare,nevertheless,somemoreimmediatee?ectsontheregionallevelthatcouldbediscussedwithrelativecon?dence.Thelimitedspaceaccordedtothisarticlewillnecessarilyforcetheauthortofocusonthemainconsequencesratherthanamoremeticulousdiscussionstatebystateoftheregion.Israel-GazaKarimMezranAtlanticCouncilandISPIThe?rstquestiontobediscussediswhetherthewarhasunitedthealwaysfragmentedfrontoftheArabstates(plusTurkeyandIran)orhas(iscontributing)contributedtofurtherdivisions.Ontheonehand,therehasbeentheunanimouscondemnationofthe“Israelireactiontothe7thofOctobermassacre’asbeingbrutalanddisproportionate,but,ontheother,ithasKarimMezran,DirectoroftheNorthAfricaInitiativeandResidentSeniorFellowwiththeRa?kHaririCenterandMiddleEastProgramsattheAtlanticCouncil.HeisaSeniorResearchAssociateFellowatISPI.|10TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationappearedclearlythatatleasttwonarrativeshaveemergedwithintheArabstatesranks(reactions);onemoreextremeinitscondemnationofIsraelasanoccupyingNeo-colonialpower,thusreducingtheweightofthe7thofOctobereventsbyinsertingthemwithinacomparisonwiththemorethan50yearsPalestinianplight,andanotherthat,evenrecognizingthePalestiniantragedydoesnotdiminishthee?ectsofthe7thofOctoberferociousattacks,thusrecognizingasomewhatvalidreasonforIsraelreactionsbutcondemningitsscopeandwidth.The?rstviewispurportedprincipallybyAlgeria,Tunisia,Libya,Syria,Iraq,whilethesecond,consideredthepositionofthe“moderate”ArabstatesisembracedbyUAE,SaudiArabiaEgypt,possiblyQatar,Morocco,andfewothers.Arabia.This“miracle”hasbeenpreemptedbytheIDF’sbombardmentsoverGaza,whichhasrenderedmorallyimpossibleafraternizationwithIsraelbythereligiouslycharacterizedandde?nedSaudielite.ForthetimebeingthereisnodoubtthattheAbrahamAccordswillnotseefurtherArabstates’adhesions,butthisdoesnotmeanthe“end”oftheprocesstowardsthesignatureoftheAccords.ThestatesoftheregionknowverywellthattherapprochementwithIsraelisaninevitableoutcomebecauseofthebene?tsthatitwillbringintermsofexploitationofthebene?tsofaregionalpeace,especiallyfromtheeconomicandsecuritystandpoints.Egyptisundoubtedlyoneofthestateswhichareconfrontedbytheconsequencesofthewarwhichhasmoretorisk.TheIsraelipressureontheGazaPalestinianpopulationtomovesouthinthedirectionoftheEgyptianbordermaycauseaRegionallyweneedtakenoticealsooftheIranianposition,whichwithitsalliessuchasHezbollahtheYemeniHouthis,theShiitemilitiasofIraqandSyriahavetakenanopposingpositiontowardsIsraelandapparentlyalsotowardsthemoderateArabstates.Turkey,alwaysbalancingitsinterestsandopportunitiesistakingastrongideologicalpositionagainstIsrael’sreaction,judgedcriminalandreckless,butatthesametimekeptitsactionswithinthenormaldiplomaticchannelswithoutprovokinganycounteractionsbytheJewishstate.furtheringofthehumanitariancrisis,whichwillpushthecivilianpopulationtobreakintoEgypt.ThismaycauseinternalturmoilandmayleadtoadramaticescalationinthepoliticalconfrontationswithinEgypt,particularlybetweentheregimeandthewidespreadmalcontentalreadyexistingamongthepopulationatlarge.Thepopularmalcontentde?nitelynotcausedbyanythingrelatingtoIsraelatthemomentbutrathertothedireeconomicsituationandpoliticalcorruption,couldindeedbetriggeredbythepotentialmass-Iftheanswertotheabovequestion“unityvsfragmentation”consequencesoftheWaristherefore“moredivisionandfragmentation”itbringstotheforeanotherquestion,fromapragmaticpointofviewanevenmoreimportantone,thatis,whatwillhappentotheAbrahamAccordswhichhadreachedthehard-to-believepointofalmostseeinganadhesionbySaudiexodusofGazans.Egypthassyettocometotermswiththecontradictionthathasa?ectedallitsactions,aswellasthemoralvaluesofitssociety,sincetheendoftheYomKippurwarin1973,wherethecloserelationshipbetweentheEgyptianeliteandtheIsraeliestablishmentneverreallyspilledovertothepopulation.WarsThatBreakUsApart:Israel-Gaza|11TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationMubaraktriedto?ndawaytofacilitateasolutiontothiscontradiction,butfailed.AlSisiis?ndingitprogressivelyharder,becausetheanti-Israelisentimentofthemajorityofthepopulationishardtoignoreevenforanelite“highlyinsulated”fromitspopulationliketheEgyptianone.Therefore,thereissomepreoccupationthatthelongerthewargoeson,thehighertheriskofdelegitimizationoftheEgyptianregimeis.Withimponderablebuteasilyforeseeableconsequences.outcomesoftheGazadestructionbytheIDF,wouldde?nitelybeapositiveoutcome.ThiscooperationcouldhelpsolvethesituationinLibyathroughtheenforcementofadegreeofcollaborationbetweenthetwoopposingLibyangroupsandstabilizethecountry.Moreover,Turkeycouldusetheenormousin?uenceithasacquiredintheHornofAfricatohelpEgyptdealwiththeissuesithaswithEthiopia(regardingthebuildingoftheDamontheNile).AlgeriaistheothergiantinthemediterraneanthathasmuchtoloseorgainfromtheGazawar.Themilitaryinpowerusethe“pan-Arab”legitimacyofitsfoundingrevolutionagainsttheFrenchcolonialiststoconducttheoppositiontoIsraelfortherealreasonofre-strengtheningthisnationalnarrativewhichisatthebaseofitslegitimacyandmaintainthestronggriponpowerithasenjoyeduntilnow.Thus,theGazawarhasactedasamultiplierofthelegitimacyoftheregimewhichhasseenthepossibilitytorejuvenateapositionandvaluesthathadbecomesomewhat“rusty”.Thewarhascontributedtothere-emergenceofIslamisminmanycountries.Hamasisthepolitical-militarybranchofamovementbasedonreligiousvaluesandemanatingfromthebellyoftheIslamistpolitico-religiousmovementparexcellencetheMuslimBrotherhood.HamasconductsitsverbalwarinIslamicjargon,thuscreatingarounditselftheaureaoffollowerofthetraditionandservicetoGod.Its“heroic”(intheopinionofthepopulationsofthearea)anti-Israeliresistancehas,absurdlyasitmightbe,causedareturntolifeofmanyIslamistpartiesand,potentially,alsoofextremistterroristorganizationsandgroups.Thesituationisstilltoo?uidtoascertaintheevolutionofitsconsequencesovertheregion.Muchwilldependonwhenandhowatruce,orapeaceagreementisreached.Ofcourse,thetragiceventsofthelasttwomonthsdonotgiveusmuchhopeof?ndingalastingagreement.OneotherpossiblymorepositiveconsequenceintheregionalbalancemaycomefromtherealizationbyTurkeyandEgyptofthenegativityandself-destructiveresultofhavingunfriendly,ifnotbellicose,behaviortowardeachother.Awarmingupofrelationsbetweenthetwo,bornoutoftherealizationofthepotentiallydisastrousWarsThatBreakUsApart:Israel-Gaza|12TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationTGLOBALSOUTH:THERESTvsTHEWEST?heyear2023hasseenheightenedinterestintheroleoftheGlobalSouthinshapingtheinternationalorder.IntheGlobalNorth,thisinterestoftenstemsfromtheperceptionofazero-sumcontestforglobalin?uence,oftenframedasadichotomybetweentheWestandthe“Rest.”Suchdualismis?awed,asitimpliestheWest’scentralityinworlda?airsandrelegatesothernationstoasecondaryposition,wheretheirgainsimplyalossfortheGlobalNorth.TherealityoftheGlobalSouth’sroleisfarmorecomplexandnuancedthanthissimplisticbinaryimplies,andsuggestsanimportantturningpointinglobalpolitics.GustavoDeCarvalhoSouthAfricanInstituteofInternationalA?airs(SAIIA)Theterm“GlobalSouth”primarilyreferstotheirinternationaleconomicandpoliticalconditions,ratherthantheirgeographicallocation.IncludingdevelopingnationsinLatinAmerica,AfricaandAsia,thisconceptemphasisesexistingandhistoricalinequalitiesandtheGustavodeCarvalho,SeniorResearcheronRussia-AfricatiesattheAfricanGovernanceandDiplomacyProgrammeattheSouthAfricanInstituteofInternationalA?airs(SAIIA).|13TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationstateofmarginalisationcountriesencounterininternationalrelations.TheideaoftheGlobalSouthisalsoincreasinglyconnectedtotheindividualorcollectivee?ortstakenbydevelopingcountriesinactivelyshapinginternationaloutcomesandtheirdemandsforamoreequitableshareinglobaldecision-makingprocesses.itsinclinationtopursuenationalinterestsoveraligningwithNorthernpositions.AnotherindicationofthedivergingperspectivesbetweentheGlobalNorthandSouthisevidentintheirrespectivestancesontheGazasituation.CountriesfromtheGlobalSouthhaveidenti?edwhattheyseeasastarkdoublestandardintheNorth’shandlingofinternationalcrises.TheNorthernreluctancetoreacttoIsraelforitsactionsinGaza,juxtaposedwiththeir?rmdenouncementofRussia’saggressioninUkraine(andintensepressureforotherstodosotoo),hasfosteredafeelingofhypocrisyintheGlobalSouth,underminingtheNorth’sclaimedcommitmenttointernationallawanduniversalprinciples.CriticsarguetheGlobalSouthconceptoversimpli?esthenatureandscopeofdiversecountries,failingtocapturethemultipleeconomic,political,andculturalrealitiesofthecountriesitgroupstogether.However,theseviewsmightbeunfairlyassessingtheideaoftheGlobalSouthforwhatitdoesn’tinclude,ratherthanwhatitactuallyrepresents.Infact,it’svalueliesinhighlightingthesharedstrugglethesecountriesfaceinin?uencingthemanagementoftheinternationalordercomparedtotheGlobalNorth,notinahomogenousidentity.Theroleofspeci?cgroupingswithintheGlobalSouth,suchasBRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China,andSouthAfrica),isalsoevolvingshowingsigni?cantshiftsinmanyGlobalSouthcountries’e?ortstoincreasetheirglobalin?uence.AninformalgroupingcomposedofemergingandestablishedGlobalSouthpowers,akinothersliketheG7,hasgrownintoasubstantialforumin?uencingtrade,investment,andpolicyinemergingmarkets.AttheAugust2023SummitinJohannesburg,BRICSdecidedtoexpanditsmembershipandinviteArgentina,Egypt,Ethiopia,Iran,SaudiArabia,andtheUnitedArabEmiratestojoinfromJanuary2024.Thisexpansionwillbringastrongergeopoliticaltonetothegroup,althoughitraisesquestionsabouttheirabilitytomanageinternaldynamicsanddecision-makingprocesses.Inrecentyears,andparticularlyin2023,theGlobalSouthconcepthaspresentedanincreasinglygeopoliticalconnotation.Withinacontestedgeopoliticalspace,oftenbetweenNorthernandSoutherncountries,manysoutherncountries,likeBrazil,IndiaandSouthAfrica,havefocusedonapragmaticrealismtoachievetheirnationalinterests.Thisapproachallowsthesecountriestonavigateglobalpoliticsbybalancingtheirimmediateneedsandlong-termgoalswithoutbeingstrictlyboundtoideologicalalignmentsorblocpolitics.OneexampleofsuchapproacheswasinresponsetotheRussianinvasiontoUkrainein2022,wheremanyGlobalSouthcountriesresistedadoptingthesanctionsregimeimplementedonRussiabymanyGlobalNorthcountries.ShidoredescribessuchamoveasthepursuitofGlobalSouth’sstrategicautonomyandAnothercriticaldecisionatthesummitwastoexploremechanismstoreducetheirexposuretotherisksof?nancialsystemsdominatedbyGlobalSouth:The“Rest”vstheWest?|14TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationtheGlobalNorth,particularlyviacurrenciesandsystemsofpayment.BRICSmembersdecidedtoengageinaninternaldiscussionthatwouldpursueanincreasinguseoflocalcurrenciesintheirbilateraltradeandconsideringalternativestothedominantSWIFTpaymentsystem.OutsideofBRICS,thereisamuchvasterrangeofGlobalSouthcountriesthatarepursuingtheirownpoliciesandstrategiestoincreasetheirin?uenceinglobala?airs.ManyGlobalSouthcountries,likeMexico,Türkiye,andIndonesia,haveapproachedBRICSwithinasafedistance,choosingtoengagewiththeglobalorderviaadi?erentpath.Thatdoesn’tmaketheirrole,voiceanddemandslessrelevantthanthemorevisibleBRICS.WhilethereislimitedsupportwithinBRICSregardingthecreationofacommoncurrency,thediscussionisinsteadcentredondiversifyingoptionsbyreducingtheirrelianceontheUSdollarandSWIFTpaymentsystemasthesolevehiclesforinternationaltrade.AttheJohannesburg2023Summit,governorsofcentralbanksandministersof?nanceweretaskedbymemberstatestoidentifymechanismsthatcouldreducetheirexposuretoperceivedglobal?nancialthreats.SomeofthemodalitiesandproposalsareexpectedtobepresentedanddiscussedduringthenextBRICSSummit,expectedtobeheldinKhazan,Russia,inmid-to-late2024.TheincreasingmisconceptionofthenatureandscopeofGlobalSouthactioncancreateamajorsetbackforamoreconstructiveNorth-Southcooperation,whichhasbeenattemptingtostrengthentieswiththeGlobalSouthamidglobalpowercompetition.FormanycountriesintheSouth,thisrenewedinterestisseenwithdistrust,astheyseethemselvesbeinginstrumentalisedasaproxyofthebroadercompetitionbetweenlargerNorthernandSoutherncountries,liketheUSandChina.UnderstandingtheGlobalSouthasaconceptisimportant,butbundlingtheirpositionstogetherashomogeneousisadangerouspath.Itcanleadtocondescendingpolicies,thatreducesindividualagencyandunderstandingofglobaldynamics.Thus,engagingwiththeGlobalSouthe?ectivelyrequirestheGlobalNorthtorecogniseandadapttothesechanginggeopoliticalrealities,focusingonmutualbene?tsandrespectingnationalsovereignty.WhileGlobalSouthcountriesarepartofBRICS,it’simportantnottoseeBRICSasagroupthatisarepresentativeoftheGlobalSouthasawhole.Andthereareinternalandexternalreasonsforthat.Internally,BRICSmembersveryoftendisagreeonapproaches,views,positionsandinterestsregardingtheexistingglobalorder.Asaresult,theytendtocentretheirengagementsonissueswherethereisaminimalcommonagreementamongstthemselves.Ifthereisastarkdisagreement,theseissuesareoftenplacedoutoftheagendaordilutedintheirdecisionstoaccommodatebroaderconsensus.Thus,BRICSisnotseekingtoengageineveryinternationalorevenGlobalSouthissuesordemands.GlobalSouth:The“Rest”vstheWest?|15TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationITALIANINSTITUTEFORINTERNATIONALPOLITICALSTUDIESAs2023comestoaclose,geopoliticalcompetitionbetweentheU.S.andChinaisdominatingtheglobalagenda.WeseethisNOWORLDFORSUPERPOWERSinthesquaringo?overwarsintheMiddleEastandUkraine,overglobaltradeandpotentialsupplychainvulnerabilities,andwithconcernsabout“geopoliticalrisk”dominatingtheglobaleconomicandbusinessagenda.TheDecemberCOP28summitinUAE,meanttobeginthestocktakingonprogresstowardkeepingglobaltemperaturerisebelow1.5degreesCelsius,hasdevolvedinto?ngerpointing.Wearecurrentlynotontracktomeeteventhemaximumtargetsfortemperaturerise,andthereisnoquestionthat,withoutmajorcooperatione?ortsfromtheU.S.andChina,wewillnot.Globalpopulationsmayappearto?nallybebeyondthedevastatinge?ectsoftheCOVID-19pandemic,butgovernmentsandinstitutionshavenotabsorbedthelessonsfromthatdisaster,andsomearelookingwithsuspicionatanewriseinpneumoniaratesinChina.Meanwhile,countriesbatteredbyeconomicdownturn,fromEuropeSusanA.ThorntonYaleUniversitySusanA.Thornton,seniorU.S.diplomatwithalmostthreedecadesofexperiencewiththeU.S.StateDepartmentinEurasiaandEastAsia.SheiscurrentlyaSeniorFellowattheYaleLawSchool(YaleUniversity).|16TheWorldin2024TheGreatFragmentationtoLatinAmericatoAfrica,facemajordomesticchallengesfrompopulistpolitics,socialunrestanddebt.Confrontationamongmajorpowerspromotesandperpetuatesinstabilityanddisruption,upsettingthefoundationfromwhichothershavetomanage,asseeninthefalloutfromRussia’swarinUkraineandheightenedtensionsintheTaiwanStrait.con?ict.Twenty-?rstcenturyglobalchallengeswillnotbemetamidthiscompetition.Resourceswillbedivertedfromglobalpublicgoodsandtensionsandcon?ictwilldominatetheglobalagenda,aswealreadysee.Giventhisreality,whatcanbedonetominimizethisprospect,topreserveandexpandthegainsofglobalizationandasingleinternationalcommunitywhile?ndingandagreeingonneededadjustmentstopreserveafunctioningandsecureorder?O?cialsandcommentatorsaroundtheworldseemresignedtoseeinggeopoliticalcompetitionbetweentheU.S.andChinadriveanddominatetheglobalagendaandjostlesmallernationsintheprocess.Itistakenasagiventhat,inthecurrentdomesticpoliticalandgeopoliticalenvironment,negotiatedsolutionsthatinvolvecompromis