iea-《聯(lián)合國(guó)氣候變化框架公約》可再生能源容量承諾三倍追蹤各國(guó)的雄心并確定彌合差距的政策-

COP28Tripling

RenewableCapacity

Pledge

Trackingcountries’ambitionsand

identifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

>

>

INTERNATIONALENERGY

AGENCY

TheIEAexaminesthefullspectrum

ofenergyissues

includingoil,gasandcoalsupplyand

demand,renewableenergytechnologies,electricitymarkets,energyefficiency,

accesstoenergy,

demandside

managementand

muchmore.Throughitswork,theIEA

advocatespoliciesthatwillenhancethe

reliability,affordabilityandsustainabilityofenergyinits

31membercountries,

13association

countriesandbeyond.

Thispublicationandany

mapincludedhereinare

withoutprejudicetothe

statusoforsovereigntyoveranyterritory,tothe

delimitationofinternationalfrontiersandboundariesandtothenameofanyterritory,cityorarea.

IEAmembercountries:

AustraliaAustria

BelgiumCanada

CzechRepublic

DenmarkEstonia

Finland

France

GermanyGreece

HungaryIreland

Italy

Japan

Korea

Lithuania

LuxembourgMexico

NetherlandsNewZealandNorway

Poland

Portugal

SlovakRepublicSpain

Sweden

Switzerland

RepublicofTürkiyeUnitedKingdom

UnitedStates

TheEuropean

CommissionalsoparticipatesintheworkoftheIEA

IEAassociationcountries:

ArgentinaBrazil

China

Egypt

India

IndonesiaKenya

MoroccoSenegal

Singapore

SouthAfricaThailand

Ukraine

Source:IEA.

InternationalEnergyAgency

Website:

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeAbstract

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|3

Abstract

Nearly200countriesmademajorcollectivepledgesonenergyattheCOP28climatesummitinDubaiwiththeaimofkeepingwithinreachtheParisAgreementtargetoflimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°C.Forthefirsttime,governmentssetkeygoalstohelpmeetthisobjective,includingtriplingglobalrenewableenergycapacitybytheendofthisdecade.GovernmentsaroundtheworldhavesincerequestedtheIEA’ssupportinimplementingthesepromisesinfullandontime–askingthattheAgencyidentifypathwaysforwardandprovidepolicymakerswithadviceonacceleratingnationalandsecurecleanenergytransitions.

TheIEA’snewreport,COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledge:Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap,whichwillpublishalongwithupdatestoourRenewableEnergyProgressTracker,formspartofthiswork.Byprovidingaglobalstocktakeofgovernments’renewablecapacityplans,theanalysis–whichcoversmorethan145countries–exploreswhetherrecenttrendsinthedeploymentofrenewablesareinlinewithgovernmentambitionsandthegoalofreaching11000gigawatts(GW)ofcapacityby2030.Italsoprovidesregionalinsights;identifieskeychallengesforbothadvancedandemergingeconomies;andsuggestspriorityareasforpolicymakerstoclosetheimplementationgap,particularlyastheyupdatetheirNationallyDeterminedContributions,orNDCs,undertheParisAgreement.

Thisreportseekstoanswerfourmainquestions:1)HowisrenewablepowercapacityreflectedinexistinggovernmentcommitmentsinNDCs,andincountries’ambitions,announcementsandplans?2)Arecountriesontracktoachievetheseambitions?3)HowdotheseambitionsmeasureagainsttheCOP28pledgetotripleglobalcapacityby2030?4)Whatarerelevantpolicyprioritiestoaddressgapsinbothimplementationandambition?

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeAcknowledgements

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

Acknowledgementsandcredits

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheRenewableEnergyDivisionintheDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurity.ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyHeymiBahar,SeniorAnalyst.Heco-ordinatedthestudyalongwithYasminaAbdelilah,whoalsoledtheanalyticalframeworkdevelopment.TheanalyticalframeworkwasjointlydevelopedwithLauraMaríMartínez,whowasalsoresponsibleforthedatamanagement.

Thereportbenefitedfromanalysis,draftingandinputfrommultiplecolleagues.Theleadauthorsofthereportwere,YasminaAbdelilah,HeymiBahar,PiotrBojek,Fran?oisBriens,TrevorCriswell,LauraMaríMartínezandKartikVeerakumar.ThereportalsobenefitedfromanalysisanddraftingfromVasiliosAnatolitis.

PaoloFrankl,HeadoftheRenewableEnergyDivision,providedstrategicguidanceandinputtothiswork.Valuablecomments,feedbackandguidancewereprovidedbyotherseniormanagementandnumerousothercolleagueswithintheIEA,inparticular,KeisukeSadamori,BrianMotherway,DanDornerandDennisHessling,BrentWannerandThomasSpencer.

OtherIEAcolleagueswhohavemadeimportantcontributionstothisworkinclude:

NadimAbillama,AlejandraBernal.FarrahBoularas,HanaChambers,SyrineElAbed,AsthaGupta,PeggyHariwan,PabloHevia-Koch,GabrielLeiva,RitaMadeira,RebeccaMcKimmandRanyaOualid.

Thisreportalsobenefittedcomments,datareviewandvalidationfrom:Argentina,Australia,Austria,Belgium,Brazil,Canada,Chile,CostaRica,Chechia,Denmark,Egypt,Estonia,Finland,France,Germany,Greece,Hungary,Indonesia,Ireland,Israel

1

,Italy,Japan,Korea,Lithuania,Luxembourg,TheNetherlands,Norway,NewZealand,Poland,Portugal,Singapore,Slovakia,Spain,Sweden,Thailand,Türkiye,TheUnitedKingdomandTheUnitedStates.

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankKristineDouaudforskilfullyeditingthemanuscriptandtheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice,inparticularJonCuster,AstridDumond,GraceGordon,JethroMullen,IsabelleNonain-SemelinRobertStone,SamTarling,ClaraVallois,LucileWallandThereseWalshfortheir

IEA.CCBY4.0.

1StatisticaldataforIsraelaresuppliedbyandundertheresponsibilityoftherelevantIsraeliauthorities.TheuseofsuchdatabytheOECDiswithoutprejudicetothestatusoftheGolanHeights,EastJerusalemandIsraelisettlementsintheWestBankunderthetermsofinternationallaw.

PAGE|4

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeAcknowledgements

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|5

assistance.Inaddition,IvoLetrafromtheOfficeofManagementandAdministrationsupporteddatamanagement.

ThisreportwasproducedwiththefinancialassistanceoftheEuropeanUnionaspartofitsfundingoftheCleanEnergyTransitionsinEmergingEconomiesprogramme(CETEE-2)withintheIEA’sCleanEnergyTransitionsProgramme.

Questionsorcomments?

PleasewritetousatIEA-REMR@

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeExecutivesummary

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|6

Executivesummary

StrongerNationallyDeterminedContributionscansetclearpathtowardstriplingglobalrenewablecapacity

Nearly200countriesmademajorcollectivepledgesonenergyattheCOP28climatesummitinDubaiwiththeaimofkeepingwithinreachtheParisAgreementtargetoflimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°C.Forthefirsttime,governmentssetkeyglobalgoalsfor2030tohelpmeetthisobjective,includingtriplingrenewablepowercapacity;doublingenergyefficiencyimprovements;substantiallyreducingmethaneemissions;andacceleratingthejust,orderlyandequitabletransitionawayfromfossilfuels.

Now,attentionisshiftingtowardsimplementation,especiallyascountriesprepareupdatedNationallyDeterminedContributions(NDCs)undertheParisAgreement.Nextyear,countriesareexpectedtosubmitnewNDCs.Theseclimateactionplanswillincluderevisedambitionsfor2030andnewgoalsfor2035–providinganimportantopportunityforcountriestomakeclearcommitmentsorraisetheirambitionstofullyimplementtheglobalpledgesmadeatCOP28.

ThisisacriticaltimeforcountriestoevaluatetheirrenewableambitionsandupdatetheirNDCswiththeclearaimofreachingthetriplinggoal.Recent

IEA

analysis

indicatesthattriplingglobalrenewablepowercapacityby2030isanambitiousbutachievablegoal,givenrecord-breakingannualdeployment,remarkablemomentuminthesector,andincreasingcompetitivenesswithfossilfuels–especiallyforsolarPVandwind.Thisreportaimstohighlightwhatisstillneededtogetthere.Coveringalmost150countries,itseekstoanswerfourmainquestions:1)HowisrenewablepowercapacityreflectedinexistinggovernmentcommitmentsinNDCs,andincountries’ambitions,announcementsandplans?2)Arecountriesontracktoachievetheseambitions?3)HowdotheseambitionsmeasureagainsttheCOP28pledgetotripleglobalcapacityby2030?4)Whatarerelevantpolicyprioritiestoaddressgapsinbothimplementationandambition?

OnlyafewcountriesexplicitlylayoutrenewablecapacityambitionsintheircurrentNDCs

Ofthe194NationallyDeterminedContributionspreviouslysubmitted,only

14includeexplicittargetsfortotalrenewablepowercapacityfor2030.

Renewablecapacityambitionsby2030acrossNDCsamounttoatotalofonlyover1300gigawatts(GW)–just12%oftheglobaltriplingpledge,whichrequiresinstalledrenewablecapacityofatleast11000GWby2030.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|7

China’sgoalof1200GWofsolarPVandwindcapacitythisdecadeaccountsforover90%ofallrenewablecapacitymentionedinNDCs.Still,manygovernmentsviewrenewablesasakeymeanstomitigateemissions,with95%ofNDCs(184ofthemintotal)containingreferencesto“renewable”energyorindividualrenewableenergytechnologies,while93includeaquantitativevaluefortheirrenewableenergyambitionsfor2030.

GovernmentambitionsandplansforrenewablessignificantlyexceedwhatisinexistingNDCs

Countries’overallambitionsonrenewablepowercapacitycorrespondtoreachingalmost8000GWgloballyin2030,basedonanalysisofallexistingpolicies,plansandestimatesforalmost150countries.Thesecountriesrepresentalmostallglobalemissionsfrompowergenerationandtheproductionofheat.Accordingtoourdetailedpolicystocktake,halfofglobalambitioncanbeexplicitlytrackedinnationalpolicydocuments,plansandmultilateralcommitmentsformorethan90countries.Wealsoestimatedvaluesforanother48countrieswithotherrenewableenergyambitionsfromwhichtotalcapacitycouldbeeasilyderived.Chinaaccountsforalmosthalfofthisestimatedtotal.

SolarPVandwindenergydominatecountries’ambitions,whilehydropower,bioenergyandotherrenewablestendtobeoverlooked.Ifcountriesmeettheirambitionsfor2030,theinstalledcapacityofsolarPVwouldsurpasshydropower,whichwastheworld’slargestsourceofinstalledrenewablecapacityin2022.

Variablerenewablesmakeupmostofthecapacityexplicitlyidentifiedbygovernments,withsolarPVrepresenting50%,followedbywindat26%.Whilemorethan60countrieshaveannouncedintentionstoinstallvariablerenewables,only47haveidentifiedgoalsforhydropower.Forotherrenewables,suchasbioenergy,geothermal,concentratingsolarpower(CSP)andoceantechnologies,thenumberisfarlower.

Currentlevelsofambitionvarydrasticallyacrosscountries

Basedontheirambitionsandplans,almosthalfofthecountriesanalysedwouldmorethandoubletheirtotalinstalledrenewablepowercapacityby2030,butsomeintendtomoveevenfaster.Ifallambitionsweretobeachieved,globalinstalledrenewablecapacitywouldbe2.2times2022levelby2030.Nearly30countriesaimtoincreasetheirrenewablecapacitybytwotothreetimesby2030,accountingforalmostthree-quartersofglobalambition,ledbyChina,theUnitedStates,India,GermanyandSpain.

ThescaleandspeedoftheexpansionofChina’srenewablecapacitywillbecrucialfortheoverallpaceofglobaldeploymentthrough2030.Chinahasnot

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|8

yetpublishedanexplicit2030targetfortotalrenewablecapacity.However,thecountryisexpectedtosurpassits2030targetof1200GWofsolarPVandwindthisyear.IEAestimatestakingintoaccountthemostrecentdeploymenttrendsindicatethatcapacityinChinain2030issettobe2.5timesits2022level.

Currentpoliciesandplansinadvancedeconomiesindicateanalmostdoublingoftheirrenewablecapacityby2030–accountingforalmost40%ofglobalambition.ThisisledbyEuropeancountries,whichcontributeone-fifthoftheglobaltotal.MemberstatesoftheEuropeanUnionaccountforover80%oftheregion’scontribution,mostlybasedontheirdraftnationalenergyandclimateplans(NECPs).Together,theUnitedStatesandCanadahaveambitionstoinstallcloseto1000GWofrenewablecapacityby2030,or13%ofglobalambition.

Emerginganddevelopingeconomies,excludingChina,alsocurrentlyplantodoublecapacity,ledbystrongambitionfromIndia.InLatinAmerica,whererenewablesalreadyaccountformorethan60%oftheregion’selectricitygenerationduethelongstandinguseofhydropower,thesumofcountryambitionscorrespondsto1.3timesasmuchinstalledcapacityin2030.Brazilaloneisresponsibleformorethanhalfoftheregion’stotalambition.Sub-SaharanAfricaandEurasiaareaimingforinstalledrenewablecapacityof3.2and1.3timestoday’slevelsrespectively.TheMiddleEastandNorthAfricaregionshowsthehighestgrowthfactorbasedonitsambitions–4.5timesitscurrentsmallbase,ledbySaudiArabia,EgyptandAlgeria.

Toachievetheircurrentambitions,mostcountriesneedtoaccelerateimplementation

Globalrenewablecapacityadditionsreachedalmost560GWin2023,anunprecedented64%year-over-yearincreasefrom2022.Thisisinlinewiththeannualpaceneededtoreachnearly8000GWofinstalledcapacityby2030,atotalthatmatchescountries’currentpolicies,plansandestimates.

Nearly50countriesareontracktoreachorsurpasstheircurrentplans–thoughChinaisbyfarthebiggestcontributor.In2023,Chinainstalledalmost350GWofnewrenewablecapacity,morethanhalfoftheglobaltotal.Ifitsustainsthispace,itcoulddramaticallysurpassitsexistingambitionsfor2030.OutsideofChina,however,therestoftheworldwouldneedtoaccelerateaverageannualgrowthby36%overtherestofthedecadetoreachnationalambitions.

Tomeetnationalambitionsandspreadprogressmorewidely,thepaceofdeploymentneedstoaccelerateinmostregionsandmajorcountries–includingtheEuropeanUnion,theUnitedStatesandIndia.MajorscalingupofdeploymentisalsoneededinSoutheastAsia,theMiddleEastandNorthAfrica,andSub-SaharanAfrica.

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeExecutivesummary

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|9

Countriescumulativeambitionsarecurrentlynotinlinewiththegoaloftriplingrenewablecapacitythisdecade

Evenifallcountriesweretofullyimplementtheircurrentambitions,the

worldwouldfall30%shortoftriplingglobalrenewablecapacitytoover11000GWby2030.ThecurrentambitionsofadvancedeconomiesandofemerginganddevelopingeconomiesarenotalignedwiththeCOP28pledgetotripleglobalrenewablepowercapacityby2030,whichisoneofthekeyelementsneededtogetontrackfortheIEA’spathwaytoachievingnetzeroemissionsbymid-centuryandlimitingwarmingto1.5°C.Foradvancedeconomies,thelevelofambitionneedstoincreasefromagrowthfactorof1.9to2.5.Foremerginganddevelopingeconomies,thegrowthfactorshouldrisefrom2.4to3.4.

Countriesneedtoadoptsupportivepoliciestobridgegapsinbothambitionandimplementation

Theimprovingcostcompetitivenessofrenewablescomparedwithfossilfuelshighlightstheimportantrolepoliciescanplayinacceleratingdeployment.Since2015,whentheParisAgreementwassigned,globalrenewablecapacityadditionshavetripled.Thisislargelyduetopolicysupportacross140countries,economiesofscaleandtechnologicalprogress.ThesefactorshavehelpedreducethecostofwindandsolarPVbyover40%.Well-designedpoliciesaddressingcurrentchallengesforrenewablescanacceleratedeploymentfurther–bridgingtheimplementationgapsthatpersistandencouragingcountriestocontinuetoincreasetheirambitionsinthecomingyears.

Whileallcountrieswillchoosetheirownpolicypathwaysbasedontheirspecificsituations,thisreportsuggestspossibleprioritiesforclustersofcountriesthatsharecommonchallengeswhenitcomestodeployingrenewablecapacity.Thesechallengesincludelengthywaittimesforpermits,inadequateinvestmentingridinfrastructure,theneedtoquicklyandcost-effectivelyintegratevariablerenewables,andhighfinancingcosts.Inall,thereportidentifies11keychallenges.

Thereportproposestargetedactionsthatclustersofcountriescantaketoaddresstheseobstacles.Forexample,tostreamlinepermitting,itrecommendssimplifyingrules,proceduresandadministrativestructures;ensuringrelevantdepartmentsaresufficientlystaffedandhavetherightskills;investinginspatialplanningtostreamingzoning;andinvolvinglocalcommunitiesthroughoutthepermittingprocess.Onacceleratingtheintegrationofvariablerenewables,recommendationsincludeincentivisingpowersystemflexibility;developinggreaterenergystoragecapacity;andleveragingdigitalisationtoenablegreaterdemandresponse.Andonreducingfinancingcoststoimprovethebankabilityofrenewableprojects,itsuggestsintroducingorextendinglong-termpolicyvisibility;

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeExecutivesummary

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegap

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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supportingprojectsinthepre-developmentphase;reducingprice,inflationandexchangeraterisks;andreducingrisksforofftakerswhileensuringaffordabilityforconsumers.

COP28TriplingRenewableCapacityPledgeChapter1.Globalambition

Trackingcountries’ambitionsandidentifyingpoliciestobridgethegapstocktakingandstatus

Chapter1.Globalambitionstocktakingandstatus

Globaltrends

Announcedandplannedrenewablecapacityambitions

for2030exceedcurrentNDCcommitmentsbutfallshortofglobaltriplingpledge

Thereare194countriesthatsubmittedanationallydeterminedcontribution(NDC)

asofSeptember2023.

2

BecausethereisnostandardNDCformat,eachParty’sNDCisuniqueandtheexpressionsofplanstomitigateemissionsvary.Asaresult,informationonstrategies,numerictargetsanddatesforemissionsreductionsarenotuniformacrossall194submissions.

AssessmentofrenewablecapacityambitionsinNDCs

Numberofcountriesandterritories

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

194

184

93

14

NDCs

mentioningrenewables

NDCs

quantifying

renewables

for2030

NDCs

NDCs

submitted

withexplicitreferencesto

totalrenewablecapacity

for2030

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:“NDCswithexplicitreferencestototalrenewablecapacityfor2030”referstoNDCsthatcontainavaluefortotalinstalledrenewablecapacityaimedforby2030.Itexcludescountriesthathavequantifiedambitionsforspecifictechnologiesonly.TheEuropeanUnionandits27memberstatessubmittedNDCswithindividualemissionreductionspledgesbutthequantificationofrenewableswasonlyidentifiedattheEUlevel.

Source:NationallyDeterminedContributionsRegistry(2024),

NDCRegistry.

2ThisincludesupdatedNDCs.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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ThecontextsinwhichrenewableenergyfeaturesineachNDCalsodiffer.SomeNDCsonlyreferqualitativelytoaroleforrenewableenergy,whileothersspecificallyquantifyambitions.Forrenewableelectricity,93NDCshavequantitativemetrics

3

(suchastheshareofrenewableenergyinthetotalpowergenerationorenergymixandadditionalcapacitytobeinstalled).However,ofthese93NDCsthatquantifyrenewableenergyambitions,only14includeexplicitreferencestototalrenewableelectricitycapacityfor2030.Includingbothexplicittotalrenewablecapacityandplansforindividualtechnologies,collectiveambitionsinNDCstotalalmost1320GWby2030,just12%oftheglobaltriplingpledge,whichrequiresinstalledrenewablecapacityofatleast11000GWby2030.thePeople’sRepublicofChina(hereafter‘China’)’saspirationof1200GWofsolarPVandwindenergyaccountsforover90%ofallrenewablecapacitymentionedinNDCs.

Globalrenewableelectricitycapacityin2022andcurrentambitionsfor2030

GW

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

2030

Renewablecapacity

ambitioninNDCsAdvancedeconomies

2030

Countries'renewable

capacityambitions

Emerginganddevelopingeconomies

2030

COP28tripling

pledge

Global

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Note:Throughoutthisreport,2022capacityisconsideredthebaselinefortheglobaltriplingpledge.2030RenewablecapacityambitioninNDCsrefersonlytoambitionsthatareexpressedintermsofcumulativeinstalledcapacitybothfortotalandtechnologies.Itdoesnotincludeplansthatareexpressedintermsofadditionalpowerplants,projects,ornetcapacityadditions.

Source:IEA(2023),2022datafrom

Renewables2023.

However,announcednationalambitionsandplansforrenewablecapacityexceedcountries’NDCsubmissions.IEAanalysisofexistingpoliciesandplansfor150countriesandterritories,representing97%ofglobalenergy-relatedGHGemissionsandalmostall(99.9%)emissionsfrompowerandheatproduction,indicatesthattheirambitionistoattainanestimated7903GWoftotalcumulativerenewablecapacityby2030,morethandoublewhatwasinstalledin2022.

3ThisnumberonlyincludestheEUandnotthe27memberstatesastheirindividualNDCsdonotreferenceanycountryspecificquantitativerenewableambitions.

IEA.CCBY4.0.

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IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|13

Nevertheless,thisestimateremainsalmost30%belowthe11000GWneededtoachieveglobaltripling.Emergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies(EMDEs)accountforjustover60%oftheglobalambitionwhileadvancedeconomiesfortherest.

AccordingtotheIEA’sdetailedpolicystocktaking,47countryplansexplicitlyannounceatotalrenewableenergycapacityfor2030,accountingforjustoverone-fifthoftheglobalambition.Another44countriesmentiontechnology-specific(nottotal)aimsforrenewablecapacity,makingupalmostanotherthird(29%)ofglobalaspirations.Inthesecases,quantitativeplansfocusmainlyonsolarPVandwind,andoftendonotaddressothertechnologiesalreadypresentinthepowermix(e.g.hydropower,bioenergy,geothermalandCSP).IEAestimatesforthesecasesaccountforjustasmallshare(2%)ofglobalambition.

Globalrenewablecapacityin2030byambitiontypeandnumberofcountries(left),andlevelofambition(right)

Numberofcountries

4744

11

48

GW

9000

8000

7000

Noambition

6000

5000

Estimatedfromotherrenewableambitions

4000

3000

Missingtechnologiesestimated

2000

1000

Sometechnologiesexplicitlyavailable

0

Totalrenewablecapacityexplicitlyavailable

2030

Globalrenewablecapacityambition

IEA.CCBY4.0.

Notes:“Noambition”referstocountriesthathavenotannouncedanyquantitativeambitionsforrenewableelectricity.“Estimatedfromotherrenewableenergyambitions”referstoquantitativeambitionsforrenewableenergyexpressedintermsotherthantotalinstalledcapacity,suchasgenerationornetadditions.“Missingtechnologiesestimated”referstotheamountofestimatedcapacitymissingforcountriesthathavecapacityforsometechnologiesavailable,butnotall.“Sometechnologiesexplicitlyavailable”referstocountriesthathavecapacityambitionsexplicitlyavailableforsometechnologies.“Totalrenewablecapacityexplicitlyavailable”referstocountriesthathaveatotalinstalledrenewablecapacityvalueavailable.Alltheseelementsreferexclusivelyto2030.

Wealsoestimatedvaluesforanother48countriesthatcontainotherrenewableenergyambitions,fromwhichatotalcapacityamountcouldbeeasilyderived.Chinaaccountsforalmosthalfoftheseestimatesasthecountryhasnotyetpublishedanexplicittargetfortotalrenewablecapacityfor2030beyondthecountry’s1200GWsolarPVandwindgoal.ExcludingChina,thisestimatedsegmentaccountsforonly9%oftheglobaltotal.Thetwomostcommonmetricsfoundinthiscategoryarecapacityfromadditionalprojectsandtheshareofrenewablesinpowergeneration.Othershaveannouncedaimsforabsolute

IEA.CCBY4.0.

PAGE|14

generation;andaggregatesfor“clean”power,whichalsoincludenuclear.Elevencountriesdonothaveanyquantitativeaimsforrenewableelectricity,buttheycontributelessthan1%oftotalglobalambition.

Informationon51%oftotalglobalambitionintermsofvolume(totalcapacity)isalreadyexplicitlyavailable,mostlyfromnationalplans,suchasnationalenergylaws,legislation,strategiesandroadmapspublishedbythelegislativeandexecutivebranchesofgovernmentsmostnotablyministriesofenergy.However,othernationalinstitutionsalsopublishdocumentsthatsignalnationalrenewablecapacityambitionsbasedonlong-termgovernmentclimategoals,forexamplethemodellingexercisesofnationallaboratoriesandintegratedresourceplansoftransmissionsystemoperators.

Globalrenewablecapacityambitionsbysourcetype

GW

8000

7000

600