輕工制造行業(yè)專題研究：分地區(qū)看2024年輕工板塊出口韌性

基本保持在2019年疫情前水平，家得寶等渠道商庫銷比仍處低位。預(yù)計(jì)驅(qū)動(dòng)行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)性增長，高爾夫球車應(yīng)用場景擴(kuò)容，有望打開需求天花板。下半年受基數(shù)擾動(dòng)，增速或?qū)⒂兴啪彛磥砝赖刃屡d市場增量疊加發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體需求回暖將繼續(xù)帶動(dòng)外銷上行，因此持續(xù)看好出口鏈板塊，建議關(guān)注的恒林股份、樂歌股份等相關(guān)標(biāo)的，維持行業(yè)“強(qiáng)于大市”風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：1）消費(fèi)意愿不達(dá)預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；22請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁的重要聲明 4 5 9 4請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁的重要聲明圖表1：M4家具出口額62.60億美元，同比+8.70%800,000700,000600,000500,000400,000300,000200,000100,0000中國:出口金額:家具及其零件:當(dāng)月值中國:出口金額:家具及其零件:當(dāng)月同比45035025050-50-150圖表2：2021-2023年家具及其零件出口有所下滑8,000,0007,000,0006,000,0005,000,0004,000,0003,000,0002,000,0001,000,00002012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220233530252050-5-10-15中國家具及其零件出口額(萬美元)——同比圖表3：2024年4月出口2yr-CAGR同比+1.75% ——中國:出口金額:家具及其零件:當(dāng)月同比-2yr-CAGR2222222233222222223344%%\-01洲出口額分別為454.68/603.40/1439.91/144.-10-10圖表4：2024年4月出口金額分國家同比變化（%）——中國:出口金額:北美洲:當(dāng)月同比——中國:出口金額:歐洲:當(dāng)月同比中國:出口金額:亞洲:當(dāng)月同比中國:出口金額:拉丁美洲:當(dāng)月同比中國:出口金額:韓國:當(dāng)月同比中國:出口金額:東南亞國家聯(lián)盟:當(dāng)月同比中國:出口金額:拉丁美洲:當(dāng)月同比中國:出口金額:韓國:當(dāng)月同比0-20-30-40從供給端來看，此前受利率鎖定影響，美國存圖表6：未償還抵押貸款利率及新增房貸利率相差較大圖表5：美國成屋銷量與30年期抵押貸款固定利率走圖表6：未償還抵押貸款利率及新增房貸利率相差較大 勢成反比800700600400200美國:成屋銷量:季調(diào):折年數(shù)(萬套)美國:30年期抵押貸款固定利率1999-112000-091999-112000-092001-072002-052003-032004-012004-112005-092006-072007-052008-032009-012009-112010-092011-072012-052013-032014-012014-112015-092016-072017-052018-032019-012019-112020-092021-072022-052023-032024-01資料來源：Wind，國聯(lián)證券研究所資料來源：Fred6請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁的重要聲明圖表7：美國新建住房銷量變化情況0…………………………美國:新建住房銷量:季調(diào):折年數(shù):同比美國:新建住房銷量:季調(diào):折年數(shù):環(huán)比-10%-20%-30%-40%圖表9：美國新建住房待售量變化美國:新建住房待售量:季調(diào)(萬套)美國:新建住房待售量:季調(diào):同比美國:新建住房待售量:季調(diào):環(huán)比6040%5030%4020%3010%200%美國:新建住房待售量:季調(diào):環(huán)比10-10%2019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04圖表8：美國成屋銷量變化情況0美國:成屋銷量:季調(diào):折年數(shù)(萬套)美國:成屋銷量:季調(diào):折年數(shù):同比美國:成屋銷量:季調(diào):折年數(shù):環(huán)比-10%-20%-30%-40%2019-022019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04圖表10：美國成屋庫存量變化02019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04美國:成屋庫存量(萬套)2019-022019-042019-062019-082019-102019-122020-022020-042020-062020-082020-102020-122021-022021-042021-062021-082021-102021-122022-022022-042022-062022-082022-102022-122023-022023-042023-062023-082023-102023-122024-022024-04美國:成屋庫存量:環(huán)比-10%-20%-30%-40%發(fā)商銷售額同比增速分別為+3.5%/+1.5%/+1.4%，零售商庫存存同比增速分別為+4.2%/+0.7%/-2.3%。3月零售、制造、批發(fā)商庫銷比分別為回落，分別-0.01pct/-0.02pct/-0.01p圖表11：2024年零售、制造、批發(fā)商庫銷比呈回落趨勢美國零售、制造、批發(fā)商銷額同比20190-10%-20%-10%-20%-30%美國:制造商銷售額:季調(diào):同比美國:批發(fā)商銷售額:季調(diào):同比-032020-032021-032022-032023-032024-美國零售、制造、批發(fā)商庫存同比美國:制造商庫存:季調(diào):同比美國:批發(fā)商庫存:季調(diào):同比-03202美國:制造商庫存:季調(diào):同比美國:批發(fā)商庫存:季調(diào):同比-03202-20190--5%-10%-15%美國零售、制造、批發(fā)商庫銷比美國:零售商庫存銷售比:季調(diào)月售比:季調(diào)售比:季調(diào)2019-022020-022021-022022-022023-022024-02開始恢復(fù)，2024年整體維持上揚(yáng)趨勢，后續(xù)有圖表12：3月美國家具家電庫銷比持略有上行美國:零售庫存銷售比:家具、家用裝飾、電子和家用電器店:2019-032020-032021-032022-0320圖表13：2024年美國消費(fèi)者信心指數(shù)維持上揚(yáng)趨勢渠道商庫銷比仍處于低位，預(yù)計(jì)后續(xù)出口仍有持續(xù)增長空間。8請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁的重要聲明圖表14：2020年至今美國家居渠道庫銷比及變動(dòng)情況代碼平臺(tái)2020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q1海外家居渠道庫銷比WMT.NCOST.OKR.NWMT.NCOST.OKR.NHD.NTGT.NLOW.N34.63%沃爾瑪Costco克羅格家得寶Target勞氏31.93%29.22%19.17%60.30%37.24%90.82%40.11%31.14%23.36%60.47%58.00%85.63%35.39%21.09%20.17%54.21%51.20%69.81%-29.54%22.93%34.49%30.97%30.87%22.68%33.64%31.76%33.51%24.84%34.11%29.10%30.43%--18.55%25.51%30.06%22.98%16.39%21.36%23.60%20.52%16.50%21.12%25.34%21.71%15.57%-線下61.55%53.04%35.47%48.17%51.54%51.14%45.99%55.90%61.78%65.02%59.57%66.16%69.45%68.10%61.55%-43.76%38.63%56.17%37.59%43.55%44.75%58.31%44.85%59.92%58.84%64.55%43.00%49.82%--72.59%50.66%70.43%79.73%75.27%62.83%72.80%82.50%85.54%70.35%84.40%82.57%87.36%-線上AMZN.O亞馬遜24.99%22.04%24.69%18.95%21.98%21.33%27.91%23.75%30.05%31.47%28.83%23.06%26.83%27.23%24.75%19.60%21.73%W.W.NWayfair2.43%1.00%1.41%1.42%1.71%1.55%2.13%2.12%2.67%2.98%3.63%2.90%2.99%2.43%2.68%2.41%2.97%海外家居渠道庫銷比同比變動(dòng)海外家居渠道庫銷比同比變動(dòng)沃爾瑪WMT.N沃爾瑪-5.56%-4.08%-1.83%-1.83%2.98%4.11%2.53%7.52%9.83%5.44%-5.56%-4.08%-1.83%-1.83%2.98%4.11%2.53%7.52%9.83%5.44%1.43%-2.53%-5.94%-4.19%-2.61%-2.83%-3.08%-1.06%KR.N-2.92%-1.06%KR.N-2.92%-2.35%克羅格COST.OCostco-2.99%-0.25%-0.85%-1.24%-2.82%0.64%1.32%-0.25%-0.85%-1.24%-2.82%0.64%1.32%-1.98%-2.54%0.11%-0.24%-0.93%-1.98%-2.54%0.11%-0.24%-0.93%-0.95%0.79%2.64%2.16%0.47%-2.66%-3.08%-3.75%-2.97%0.12%----6.32%-2.17%-6.32%-2.17%-4.15%-6.46%-2.45%線下線下HD.N家得寶-5.70%-12.33%-9.54%-4.82%-1.90%10.52%7.73%10.24%13.88%13.59%10.26%7.67%3.08%-5.36%-5.69%-9.15%-6.55%TargetTGT.NTarget-0.84%-0.21%-7.64%-10.88%-0.84%-0.21%-7.64%-10.88%-4.89%6.12%2.14%7.26%16.37%6.12%2.14%7.26%16.37%14.09%6.24%-1.85%-10.10%-7.64%-6.55%-5.76%-0.06%-0.54% LOW.N勞氏-12.10%-14.75%-8.45%-2.50%2.67%12.17%2.37%2.78%10.28%7.52%11.60%0.06%-0.54%--4.09%-0.94%-3.46%-0.49%-5.10%-0.02%-2.53%0.18%-7.26%-0.95%-2.13%-1.56%-4.49%-1.01%-3.02%-4.09%-0.94%-3.46%-0.49%-5.10%-0.02%-2.53%0.18%-7.26%-0.95%-2.13%-1.56%-4.49%-1.01%-3.02%-0.71%-0.71%0.56%3.23%0.72%4.80%0.70%8.07%0.96%0.92%-0.69%0.78%-3.22%0.32%-4.24%-0.56%AMZN.OW.N線上圖表15：2024年4月輕工板塊分品類出口金額及同比變化名稱單位：億美元24M4環(huán)比24Q124M324M224M123M1223M1123M1023M923M823M723M623M523M423M323M223M1彈簧床墊2.70.90.61.21.11.01.01.00.90.80.90.80.80.80.40.7 33.2%47.0%20.9%57.4%71.0%40.0%25.5%18.3%18.4%25.7%12.4%15.7%-2.9%-12.7%20.7%-4.2%-18.0%0.628.9%1.80.70.50.70.70.70.60.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.40.6 3.7%9.6%4.4%30.7%18.4%20.9%12.9%3.7%12.1%18.8%13.9%20.1%5.9%6.4%13.2%-12.3%-18.3%乳膠床墊乳膠床墊木框架沙發(fā)6.916.7%18.96.04.88.18.07.87.26.86.66.16.46.66.66.42.96.0 5.8%24.1%-6.3%65.8%36.1%28.8%24.6%18.2%14.7%11.0%-12.0%-9.8%-12.1%-7.2%-9.4%-39.1%-31.4%7.811.8%22.47.05.69.88.57.05.65.25.15.45.45.86.47.13.57.9 21.9%21.6%-1.2%60.6%24.8%9.5%-6.1%-21.0%-18.8%-16.3%-13.2%-21.7%-23.3%-18.1%-5.5%-37.6%-20.0%金屬框架沙發(fā)金屬框架沙發(fā)辦公家具2.6 52.0%2.6 36.0%36.0%3.6-14.0%3.615.0%15.0%5.61.71.52.42.32.21.81.91.81.82.01.91.91.80.91.9 23.8%-3.9%74.6%26.9%21.4%36.7%11.2%14.6%16.5%5.9%9.9%3.1%22.2%20.5%-11.7%-0.4%9.34.22.13.03.93.73.43.53.13.03.03.03.13.21.52.91.0% -5.8%7.7%26.8%-12.7%-20.4% 22.7%28.8%45.7%4.1%1.0% -5.8%7.7%26.8%-12.7%-20.4%升降桌椅升降桌椅PVC地板4.4-3.4%4.64.44.24.64.74.64.52.24.40.4%-9.6%-30.9%-27.3%-21.0%-16.5%-22.5%4.4-3.4%4.64.44.24.64.74.64.52.24.40.4%-9.6%-30.9%-27.3%-21.0%-16.5%-22.5%-49.0%-31.3%保溫杯保溫杯1.7%3.13.091.4%4.926.7%4.021.2%4.221.4%3.94.2%4.222.8%4.124.7%3.13.091.4%4.926.7%4.021.2%4.221.4%3.94.2%4.222.8%4.124.7%11.020.7%4.219.4%3.71.53.826.6%-29.4%-4.5%-15.0% -2.3%-6.1%-4.9%-15.0%人造草坪171.5-5-17.2%-17.2% 0.0138.9-2.2%%703.4343.3138.9-2.2%%703.4343.3 -11.1%28.0% -39.2%4.5%4.5%-72.6%-14.5%-39.9%-9.0%-36.0%2.0%-18.2%-25.7%-40.1%17.3%-1.3%0.8-6.1%2.20.80.60.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.80.90.50.7-1.3%0.8-6.1%2.2%-15.1%14.8%15.5%-4.3%-9.7%-25.9%-17.9%-12.4%-15.3%-12.4%-6.5%12.3%33.4%7.9%-14.2%2.210.4%5.82.01.52.32.62.51.92.22.32.02.02.22.42.61.72.5 -10.2%-15.4%-23.7%-14.1%-7.8%-14.4%-17.1%-28.2%-13.6%-20.5%-37.9%-31.6%-35.2%-6.5%8.5%8.2%-37.4%探照燈及聚光燈探照燈及聚光燈97.825.897.825.828.543.5 9.5%-24.3%86.7%8.7%-4.5%-4.5%36.634.115.340.00.6%26.2%-39.6%-15.9%36.634.115.340.00.6%26.2%-39.6%-15.9%1.1%-6.3%-16.0%-12.6%-8.1%-11.1%-11.4%-4.8%衛(wèi)浴陶瓷19.2%5.0-3.8%2.16.0 -55.4%-46.7%19.2%5.0-3.8%2.16.0 -55.4%-46.7%9.7%-16.3%109.6%4.7% 41.3%-19.6%-31.1%-44.2%-43.6%-34.5%-38.4%-40.7%9.7%-16.3%109.6%4.7%裝飾原紙裝飾原紙0.8-2.9%-11.2%2.20.80.60.80.80.70.60.80.80.70.80.80.90.90.60.8 -6.6%-8.5%11.8%6.0%-9.5%-15.3%-9.2%-0.1%-13.5%-29.1%-20.7%-7.7%4.4%51.6%39.6%-0.1%0.8-2.9%-11.2%零售狗食/貓食飼料1.29.6%3.11.10.81.21.11.01.01.11.01.11.11.01.11.10.70.91.29.6%10.9% 10.2%2.9%22.2%35.5%19.3%28.2%14.6%29.3%-3.9%-5.4%-3.6%-17.4%2.8%-9.6%-12.4%-33.2%10.9% 電動(dòng)摩托車及腳踏車12.7%12.7%4.0-0.7%10.43.56.7%80.6%2.93.13.34.04.84.24.74.0-0.7%10.43.56.7%80.6%2.4%-21.0%-20.6%-21.0%-11.7%-26.8%-9.5%-7.0%9.0%-7.6%-42.4%-15.2%-15.2%全地形車1.59.5%3.61.40.91.3 15.3%9.2%19.5%0.8%1.20.81.21.6%-20.6%-20.8%1.11.59.5%3.61.40.91.3 15.3%9.2%19.5%0.8%1.20.81.21.6%-20.6%-20.8%41.1%0.6%-6.1%10.1%24.8%-10.8%-24.4%-18.7%-2.1%-15.3%41.1%高爾夫球車高爾夫球車0.816.2%1.70.70.40.60.50.50.40.70.80.80.80.80.70.40.40.5 10.0%13.7%2.2%16.6%42.1%18.7%-0.9%-8.7%1.7%13.4%-15.6%-4.4%27.9%28.5%0.3%-16.5%16.7%衛(wèi)生巾及尿布1.4%2.8-10.8%2.62.81.1%8.22.82.23.23.12.9 -2.6%-13.1%10.5%18.1%6.5%3.3%4.7%2.72.72.72.73.23.22.02.70.6%-1.7%10.3%1.4%2.8-10.8%2.62.81.1%8.22.82.23.23.12.9 -2.6%-13.1%10.5%18.1%6.5%3.3%4.7%庭園用傘庭園用傘1.0-24.19.7%19.7%7%3.81.31.01.61.00.80.40.30.30.30.40.50.81.20.71.5 42.6%11.0%43.5%3.8%-5.3%-15.1%-40.4%-45.1%-27.6%-32.7%-31.6%-41.1%-46.9%-37.0%-43.8%-24.2%圖表16：4月彈簧床墊出口額同比+33.2%98765432102023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0457.4%40.0%25.7%25.5%5.3%-0.4%-2.9%6.4%-12.7%-4.2%彈簧床墊出口額(億美元)2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0457.4%40.0%25.7%25.5%5.3%-0.4%-2.9%6.4%-12.7%-4.2%71.0%41.8%33.2%20.7%-80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%圖表17：4月彈簧床墊出口量同比+34.6%1,4001,2001,000800600400200054.0%52.5%58.3%52.6%42.2%37.1%36.9%17.9%9.7%26.7%26.9%4.7%2.4%2.1%-3.1%-7.6%-8.4%-65.3%彈簧床墊出口量(萬臺(tái))同比54.0%52.5%58.3%52.6%42.2%37.1%36.9%17.9%9.7%26.7%26.9%4.7%2.4%2.1%-3.1%-7.6%-8.4%-65.3%72.0%72.0%65.0%34.6%37.7%40%20%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0410圖表18：4月乳膠床墊出口額同比+3.7%98765432102017201820192020202120222023449572023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-044.4%7.9%-8.1%-12.3%-15.8%-31.6%乳膠床墊出口額(億美元)同比2017201820192020202120222023449572023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-044.4%7.9%-8.1%-12.3%-15.8%-31.6%31.1%30.7%30.7% %3.7%3.7%-18.3%40%-10%-20%-30%-40%圖表20：4月彈簧床墊均價(jià)回升彈簧床墊(94041000):出口均價(jià):當(dāng)月值美元/個(gè)12010076.878076.876040200202019-042019-072020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-072022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-072024-012024-04圖表19：4月乳膠床墊出口量同比-9.7%乳膠床墊出口量(萬臺(tái))同比4,0003,5003,0002,5002,00050002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04..22.7%%%21.3%21.3%%-9.7%6.1%-9.7%-4.5%0.1%-4.5%-24.2%-13.0%-24.2%-53.9%-64.0%◆-53.9%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%圖表21：4月乳膠床墊均價(jià)回升30'。。.。'24.562520151050202019-042019-072019-102020-012020-042020-072020-102021-012021-042021-072022-012022-042022-072022-102023-012023-042023-102024-012024-04公司逐漸轉(zhuǎn)移產(chǎn)能以應(yīng)對(duì)反傾銷，北美地區(qū)彈簧床墊出口占比從持續(xù)下降至21%。直至2024年至今，北美彈簧床墊出口額占比僅為6%，乳膠床墊略北美保持穩(wěn)健增長。2024年美國第三輪反傾銷即將落地，增加墨將進(jìn)一步降低，中美周邊國家以及拉美、非洲等新興市場或?qū)⑻峁┹^強(qiáng)出口彈性。圖表22：彈簧床墊出口額分地區(qū)占比變化100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%u亞洲u非洲u歐洲u拉丁美洲北美洲大6%4%6%6%4%6%7%3%2%6%7%3%2%9%2%8%3%8%3%4%29%29%36%3%41%45%36%3%41%45%9%3%2%2%2%2%2%2%5%2%5%2%5%2%5%2%2%2%6%6%2%2%56%54%55%53%52%53%56%54%55%53%52%48%42%37%33%31%33%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd圖表23：乳膠床墊出口額分地區(qū)占比變化圖表24：彈簧床墊及乳膠床墊各地區(qū)出口額情況分地區(qū)（億美元）2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd彈簧床墊出口總額3.914.275.027.127.098.008.178.5710.003.762.63亞洲1.651.601.642.213.723.804.244.785.541.991.42非洲0.130.090.110.150.140.150.170.180.260.090.08歐洲0.180.210.300.410.661.201.150.951.560.640.37拉丁美洲0.090.070.100.120.150.230.320.280.440.170.10北美洲1.121.522.053.231.150.650.750.640.560.220.15大洋洲0.750.780.821.011.271.981.541.741.650.650.52乳膠床墊出口總額5.696.168.379.476.475.457.086.477.082.452.18亞洲1.331.371.301.542.202.132.802.833.021.041.00非洲0.060.030.040.050.040.060.070.080.090.040.03歐洲0.850.850.830.851.191.602.131.622.010.700.59拉丁美洲0.050.040.050.030.050.070.130.140.220.110.06北美洲3.233.655.856.682.681.141.431.161.140.360.30大洋洲0.190.220.300.310.310.450.530.640.600.200.20圖表25：彈簧床墊及乳膠床墊各地區(qū)出口額同比增速情況同比增速201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd彈簧床墊出口額同比9%17%42%0%13%2%5%17%43%亞洲-3%2%35%69%2%12%13%16%40%非洲-29%22%33%-6%5%14%8%42%17%歐洲18%42%37%63%81%-4%-17%64%75%拉丁美洲-14%35%16%26%56%41%-13%59%75%北美洲36%35%57%-64%-44%17%-15%-13%45%大洋洲3%6%23%25%56%-22%13%-5%24%乳膠床墊出口額同比8%36%13%-32%-16%30%-9%9%12%亞洲3%-6%19%43%-3%32%7%4%非洲-41%35%13%-21%40%24%12%22%25%歐洲0%-3%3%40%34%33%-24%24%19%拉丁美洲-23%38%-36%47%52%84%13%54%87%北美洲13%60%14%-60%-57%25%-19%-2%19%大洋洲16%40%4%43%17%22%-7%2%12圖表26：4月休閑沙發(fā)出口額同比+5.8%休閑沙發(fā)出口額(億美元)同比100908070605040302002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0465.8%28.8%5.8%-.2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0465.8%28.8%5.8%-.-39.1%-31.4%%40%20%圖表28：4月功能沙發(fā)出口額同比+21.9%功能沙發(fā)出口額(億美元)同比908070605040302002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04 -16.3%%.24.8%9.5%...2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04 -16.3%%.24.8%9.5%...-1.2%-%40%20%圖表27：4月休閑沙發(fā)出口量同比+10.6%休閑沙發(fā)出口量(萬套)同比10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,00002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04-0.1%/..43.2%36.9%40.5%%%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04-0.1%/..43.2%36.9%40.5%%%35%-8.9%.280%60%20%0%-20%-40%圖表29：4月功能沙發(fā)出口量同比+23.1%功能沙發(fā)出口量(萬套)同比24,00022,00020,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,0008,0006,0004,0002,00002023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04.29.2%30.7%30.7%.%//4.0%4.0%.2.8%-2.4%6.6%-2.4%- -22.3%40%20%13圖表30：休閑沙發(fā)仍以北美為主，亞洲占比逐步提升亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%39%39%36%39%39%41%42%44%45%41%42%44%3%20%3%20%4%20%2%3%3%22%2%3%3%22%2%24%4%21%2%23%21%18%21%2%2%29%29%29%30%29%29%29%22%201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd圖表31：功能沙發(fā)北美、歐洲和亞洲占比較大100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲北美洲大洋洲27%26%27%27%30%30%32%27%26%27%27%30%30%2%3%3%3%2%3%3%3%3%2%3%3%30%27%29%30%27%30%33%30%34%31%34%4%8%7%4%8%4%4%4%6%4%4%4%33%32%31%29%29%26%26%33%32%31%29%29%26%201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd圖表32：休閑沙發(fā)各地區(qū)出口額情況分地區(qū)201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd休閑沙發(fā)出口總額（億美元）77.1776.3097.1278.3977.2325.8621.80亞洲17.2818.2321.8922.4022.087.666.31非洲1.551.281.721.101.170.400.26歐洲16.1016.5220.2213.7515.545.374.45拉丁美洲2.452.043.632.432.801.010.67北美洲34.9232.3442.7132.2129.919.348.46大洋洲4.875.906.956.505.722.071.65功能沙發(fā)出口總額（億美元）58.3375.0490.1982.6172.7722.3918.41亞洲16.9825.0523.1023.9022.996.934.87非洲2.593.333.373.615.711.571.06歐洲19.2522.4330.5724.5019.916.605.65拉丁美洲1.751.692.682.422.540.620.46北美洲15.6719.5626.8325.0819.366.125.97大洋洲2.082.983.643.112.260.550.4114圖表33：休閑及功能沙發(fā)各地區(qū)出口占比20202021202220232024ytd休閑沙發(fā)出口額同比-1%27%-19%-1%19%19%亞洲5%20%2%-1%21%21%非洲-17%35%-36%7%53%53%3%22%-32%13%21%21%拉丁美洲-17%78%-33%15%52%52%北美洲-7%32%-25%-7%10%大洋洲21%18%-6%-12%25%25%功能沙發(fā)出口額同比29%20%-8%-12%22%22%亞洲47%-8%3%-4%42%42%非洲28%7%58%49%49%17%36%-20%-19%17%拉丁美洲-3%58%-10%5%35%35%北美洲25%37%-7%-23%2%2%大洋洲43%22%-15%-27%32%32%前庫存逐漸回歸正常水平。2024年4月衛(wèi)浴陶瓷出口額4.98圖表34：4月衛(wèi)浴陶瓷出口額同比-3.8%衛(wèi)浴陶瓷出口額(億美元)同比904002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0438%%42.41.3% .2023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0438%%42.41.3% .-19.6%-.-16.3%--34.5%-40.7%-467%%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%圖表35：4月衛(wèi)浴陶瓷出口量同比+18.2%衛(wèi)浴陶瓷出口量(百萬千克)同比2,00040002023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-0498.3%55.8%.13.4%3%55--2.2.%5%5%%%%-6.1%2.5%%-6.1%.-30-309% . 120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%設(shè)備(69109000)加總而得，與出口額類目(6910)或有口比最大的市場，2024年同比增速實(shí)現(xiàn)轉(zhuǎn)正；拉15圖表36：衛(wèi)浴陶瓷出口亞洲占比最大100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%亞洲非洲歐洲拉丁美洲100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%14%14%22%8%18%7%8%7%49%40%14%6%14%7%12%9%6%13%7%7%50%53%52%46%51%48%51%22%48%48%12%16%9%9%8%8%8%7%7%7%7%2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd圖表37：衛(wèi)浴陶瓷分地區(qū)增速情況同比同比201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd出口額同比-33%41%28%43%13%5%-5%-33%18%亞洲-21%42%29%47%-7%-36%非洲-36%64%27%40%36%-1%0%-30%-31%歐洲-46%66%32%62%-10%-26%-18%32%拉丁美洲-67%66%50%40%3%45%-34%-30%26%北美洲-34%20%20%24%-8%-36%34%大洋洲-2%51%37%-11%-35%26%圖表38：衛(wèi)浴陶瓷各地區(qū)出口額情況分地區(qū)2015201620172018201920202021202220232024ytd2023ytd出口總額（億美元）45.2230.1442.5054.5777.8287.5591.6887.4358.93亞洲20.3426.1638.3645.0941.7545.9229.538.54非洲3.073.244.105.767.807.747.725.407.514.026.698.808.753.022.29拉丁美洲5.262.854.296.006.188.955.894.15北美洲6.677.979.098.933.202.38大洋洲2.132.503.423.753.342.170.760.60高基數(shù)影響，同比略有回落，4月繼續(xù)保持高增圖表39：4月辦公家具出口金額同比+36.00%辦公家具出口金額(億美元)同比74.64%74.64%21.40%36.63% 9.93%--3.89%80%80% 70% 60% 50% 40%00%30% 20%10%26.91%26.91%6%6%.65%1.65%10%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04%0-13.16%2023-0120232022202120202019201820172023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-04%0-13.16%圖表40：4月升降桌椅出口金額同比+15.03%升降桌椅出口金額(億美元)同比40502023-012023-022023-032023-042023-052023-062023-072023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012023-012023-022023-032023-0420