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Arti?cialIntelligence,
globalcompetitionandthefutureofourindustry
Asurveyofglobalsemiconductorexecutives
TableofcontentsForward
1.Movingfastandslow:AI,geopoliticsandthestrategicconundrum
2.Ouroptimisticindustry
3.Our“l(fā)ove-hate”relationshipwithgovernmentpolicies
4.Ourviewsontechnologycompetitionbetweennations
5.Ourpotentialblindspot:the“homecourt”bias
6.Ourplaybook:strategicmovesandpriorities
IntegratedInsightsandGSAconnectedwithover130semiconductorindustryleadersfromtheUS,Europe,MainlandChina,Taiwan,andotherregionstounderstandtheirperspectivesonthelong-termtrajectoryofourindustry.Theresultshighlightanoptimisticindustrythatislaser-focusedon“winning”arti?cialintelligence,whileexpressingdeepconcernaboutthenegativeimpactofgeopolitics.
Whiledi?erentcompanieswilltakedi?erentapproachestothesetwintrends,nearlyallrespondentsindicatethattheycannolongerperform“businessasusual”-theywillneedstrategictransformationforcontinuedsuccess.
ThispublicationisdesignedforsemiconductorCEOs,COOs,CFOs,CTOs,globalsalesleadersaswellasstrategicandcorporatedevelopmentexecutives.Itisequallyrelevantforexecutivesofcompanieswhoseproductsrelyonsemiconductorcomponents,includingtelecommunicationsinfrastructure,cloudservices,datacenters,arti?cialintelligenceplatformproviders,devices,andautomotiveelectronics.
Movingfastandslow:AI,geopoliticsandthestrategicconundrum
4T5
indicatemarginsintheir
segmentwillbestableor
higheroverthenext5years
Anoptimisticindustrydealingwithincreasinglyactivegovernments
40%+believehardware
playerswillbelong-termwinnersinAI
believegovernmentpolicies,notmarkets,willdrive
semiconductor
industrystrategy
Our?ndingsshowcaseourindustry’sremarkablesenseofoptimism,drivenbyrobustgrowthandstablemargins.Meetingthedemandforarti?cialintelligence(AI)solutionsremainsparamount,withcompaniesre-toolingtheirinvestmentsand“pickingupthepace”tokeepabreastoftherapidlychangingmarket.Respondents,especiallyinAsia,believethathardware—speci?callytheGPUsandCPUsfuelingtheAIboom—representsthemostattractivesegmentintheAItechnologystack.RespondentsfromtheUSandTaiwanaremostoptimisticabouttheirregion’scompetitivenessintheseboomingmarkets.
44%
indicategeopoliticsisthebiggestthreattoourindustry
2
3
OUTOF
Atthesametime,respondentsacrossallregionsseeanincreasingimpactfromgovernmentpolicies.Asubstantialminoritybelievesthatgovernmentpoliciesandfunding(notthemarket)willdrivethesemiconductorindustrygoingforward.Whilemostrespondentsviewtheirhomegovernmentpoliciespositively,theincreasedfocusfrompolicymakersresultsingeopoliticalchallenges.RespondentsviewUS-Chinatechnologycompetition,whichisdrivingtheemergenceofdistinctUS-centricandChinese-centricsupplychains,asthemostsigni?cantthreattothesemiconductorindustry.
01
Consolidationandcompetitiveness:AmericanoptimismandmixedviewsonChina
AIandgeopoliticsareshiftingtheindustry’s“balanceofpower.”RespondentsexpectAItoconcentratepowerinleadingcountrieswhileenablingnewcompaniesinthosecountriesto?ourish.This“consolidation”tendencyextendstotheregionalR&Dandmanufacturingfootprint.DespitethesemiconductoraspirationsofregionssuchastheMiddleEast,SoutheastAsia,Indiaandothers,respondentsoverwhelminglybelievethattheincumbentregionswithhighestglobalmarketshare(Japan,Korea,MainlandChina,Taiwan,andtheUS)will“win”ontalent,capital,andinnovationbreakthroughs,whileexpandingtheirmarketshareleadinsemiconductormanufacturing.
4OF5
indicatecustomers
prioritize
performanceandpriceover
geopoliticalriskinchoosingsuppliers
OUT
Thisconsolidatingforcealignswithindustrykeybuyingfactors–customerscarefarmoreaboutproductperformanceandcostthansupplychaingeopoliticalrisk.Ourindustry,whichdemonstrates?rstmover,scaleandclusteringbene?ts,favorsincumbency.Newregionalentrantsmustbuildtheirinvestmentcaseoninnovationandcoste?ectiveness,ratherthantheir“geopoliticaladvantages.”
believetheUSAwillattracttheworld’sbesttechnicaltalent
75%
Despite80%ofrespondentsworkingforAsian,EuropeanorMiddleEasterncompanies,executivesexpresssubstantial
optimismtowardstheUnitedStates.RespondentsfromeveryregionranktheUSasthecountrymostlikelytocreatebreakthroughinnovation,attractglobaltalents,andwinglobalcapitalinvestment.
WhileviewingTaiwanandMainlandChinaasbetterlocationsformanufacturingsemiconductorinnovations,respondentsexpecttheUStogainthemostleading-edgemanufacturingmarketshare.Finally,thegroupanticipatesendcustomersacrossallregions,includingthe“GlobalSouth”,toalignmorewiththeAmericantechnologyecosystemthantheChineseone.
RespondentsexpecttheChinese-centricsemiconductorsupplychaintohavethegreatestsuccessintheautomotivemarket.TherearedivergingperspectivesonthefutureglobalreachoftheChina-centricsemiconductorsupplychain-anequalnumberofrespondentssupportthenotionofan“inChinaforChina”supplychainanda“Chinesesupplychainthatcompetesglobally.”
02
Thecorporateplaybook:ourresponsetotheduelingtrendsofAIandgeopolitics
Companieswilltakethreeactionstowininthisemergingenvironment.
Firstly,theywilllaserfocusoninnovation.Creatingnewtechnologiesanddrivingnewbusinessmodelswillbehigherprioritiesthanrespondingtogeopolitics,reducingcosts,orevenintegratingAIintooperations.
Secondly,acknowledgingtheinadequacyoftheircurrentAIstrategies,mostcompanieswillditch“businessasusual”,pursuenewpartnerships,moveintonewbusinessdomainsand“movefaster”tocatchtheopportunities.
Thirdly,companieswillconsciouslynavigatethebifurcatedsemiconductorlandscape.Manycompaniesarechoosingtoconcentrateresourcesonjustoneofthetwoglobalsemiconductorsupplychains,whileothersareestablishingseparatelegalentitiestoserveboth.TheywillalsoupdatetheirglobalfootprintviainvestinginnewmanufacturingandR&Dlocations,andseekingnewinvestors,suppliersandcustomers.
margin,companieswillprioritizeinvestingininnovationover
geopoliticalmoveslikesupplychainde-risking
1T4
3:1
BYA
companiesplantosplitupintoseparatelegalentitiestocontinueservingtheUSandChinesemarkets
03
Theseduelingtransformationscreateaconundrum.Strategyisaboutmakingchoices,andthetrade-o?s
betweenthedemandsofAIcompetitionandwinningthegeopoliticalgameareclear.
WinninginAIdrivestheneedtomovefaster,toexpandglobalpartnerships,andtoinvestmoreininnovation.De-riskingglobaloperationsrequiresadjustingtothepaceofpolicymaking,investinginduplicativemanufacturingcapabilitiesandsuppliers,breakingupR&Dteams,shrinkingthesetofglobalpartnersand,forsomecompanies,shu?ingawidemixofassets,teams,IPandcustomerrelationshipsbetweentwodistinctlegalentities.
believetheyneedto
changetheircorporatestrategytowininAI
80%+
companiesdonotyethavedetailedexecutionplans
forsupplychainde-risking
2
3
OUTOF
04
Executiveswillalsoneedtoavoidadebilitating“blindspot”evidentinthesurveydata.Universally,respondentsratetheirownregion’scapabilitiesmorehighlythanrespondentsfromotherregions–inotherwords,thereisaconsistent“homecourt”biasthatcouldskewdecision-making.
Givenalltheabove,leadersareunlikelytobeabletoperfectlyoptimizebothAIandgeopoliticalstrategies–somethingwillhavetogive.Inaddition,leaderswillmakethesetrade-o?sinanenvironmentoflong-termuncertainty.Morethan60%ofrespondentsbelievesupplychainstabilityismorethan?veyearsaway.
Thesechallengesmayexplainwhymorethan70%ofcompaniesinoursurveyhavenotyetstartedexecutingtheirnewglobalstrategy.
Inourindustrywhereexecutionisparamountforsurvival,CEOsandleadersthatapproachthisconfoundingsetofchallengeswithagility,insights,patience,andhumility,willbeinamuchbetterpositionthanthosewhocannot.
Thedemographicsofoursurvey
Demographicsofrespondentsbyregion
The130respondentsworkacrossallmajorregionsandrepresentadiversegroupofcompanieswithheadquartersscatteredaroundtheworld.Morethan30%ofrespondents
workinaregiondi?erentthantheheadquarterslocation.Over60%ofrespondentsworkin
Asia,withMainlandChinarepresentingthelargestregionalcohort.
LocationofcompanyHQ
05
Others(8%)MainlandChina
(24%)
Taiwan(18%)
Europe(30%)
USA(20%)
2%2%
2%0%
2%
3%
6%
24%
0%
0%
19%
1%
12%
1%
4%2%
0%4%
1%1%
14%
Taiwan(15%)
Others(8%)
USA(21%)
Europe(24%)
MainlandChina
(34%)
Locationofwork
Demographicsofrespondentsbycompanyroleinthesupplychain
Approximately1/3ofthe130respondentsworkforcompaniesthatsellproductstoendcustomers(fablesscompaniesandIDMs)whilethemajorityprovideproductsorservicestoothersemiconductorcompanies(chemicals,designservices,EDAtools,equipment,foundryservices,packagingandtestingservices,etc.).
25%
Fablesscompanies
65%
11%IDMs
Upstreamsupplychaincompanies
Ouroptimisticindustry
Ourindustryexudespositivesentiment,asweexpectbothtop-linegrowthandbottom-linehealth.Despiteregionaldi?erencesinproductandend-marketfocus,thereisaconsensusthatthe“currentbigthing”,Arti?cialIntelligence,willremainthe“nextbigthing.”
3T4
pickGPUsandCPUsasthemostattractiveindustrysegment
90%
believeourindustrywillgrowfasterthanglobalGDP
OUT
1OF2
believecommerciallyviablequantum
computingismorethan10yearsaway
06
OUROPTIMISTICINDUSTRY
Bigger,morepro?tableanddrivenbyAI
9outof10respondentsanticipatesemiconductorgrowthrateswilloutpaceglobaleconomic
growthoverthenext5years.One-quarterpredictindustrygrowthwillsurpassglobal
economicgrowthbymorethan4percentagepoints.75%forecasttheirsegmentmarginsto
stay?atorriseduringthenext?veyears.
Howrapidlywillglobalsemiconductorindustryrevenuegrowinthenext5years?
40%
9%
1%
26%
24%
4+ptsfasterthantheglobal
economy
2-4ptsfastertheglobaleconomy
1-2ptsfaster
thantheglobal
economy
Revenueswillgrowatthesamerateastheoverallglobaleconomy
Semiconductor
revenueswillgrowmoreslowlythantheglobaleconomy
Howwillpro?tmargininyourindustrysegmentchangeoverthenext5years?
11%
33%
33%
16%
7%
Morethan5ptshigherthantoday
3-5ptshigherthantoday
Nochange
3-5ptslowerthantoday
Morethan5ptslowerthantoday
07
GreaterthanhalfofrespondentschooseAIasthemostattractiveendmarketandindicatethatGPUs,CPUsandAIacceleratorsarethemostattractiveproductsegment.ChipsthatsupporttheAIrollout(connectivity,powermanagementandmemory)bunchtogetherclosely
asthenextmostattractivesegments.Perhapsre?ectingovercapacityconcerns,respondents
gradematurelogicastheleastattractivesegment.
Semiconductorendmarketsrankedbyattractiveness(1beingmostattractive)
andmobile
devices
Metaverse/Web3IoTAutomotive
5.85.14.94.53.62.81.4
PCs,phones
Quantumcomputing
Electri?cationArti?cial
andnewenergyIntelligence
Productsegmentsrankedbyattractiveness(1beingmostattractive)
MicrocontrollerandAnalog
MatureLogicprocessingConnectivity
5.03.93.43.21.6
CPU/GPUandAIaccelerators
MemoryPower
management
G5A
INTEGRATED
INSIGHTS
Endusers EnterprisesoftwarecompaniesthatintegrateAI
AI-focusedsoftwareapplicationdevelopers
Hyperscalersandcloudproviders
GPUandCPUproviders
OUROPTIMISTICINDUSTRY
AIchipoptimismintheEast,softwareoptimismintheWest
Globally,aslightlyhigherpercentageofrespondentsbelievethathardwarecomponents,such
asGPUsandCPUs,willbethebiggestbene?ciariesoftheAIboomcomparedtosoftware
companies.
RespondentsbasedinMainlandChinaaretheleastoptimisticaboutsoftwarecompanies
bene?tingfromtheAIboom.Incontrast,AmericanandEuropeanrespondentsbelievethat,collectively,enterpriseorAI-focusedsoftwaredeveloperswillbene?tmorethanchipproviders.Lessthan10%ofrespondentsbelieveusersofAIwillbethebiggestbene?ciaries.
Whichcompanieswillbene?tmostfromarti?cialintelligenceoverthenext
9%
17%
19%
13%
42%
5years?
12%
12%
31%
19%
27%
26%
29%
19%
10%
16%
21%
21%
58%
16%
50%
5%
11%
18%
38%
25%
25%
13%
Globalaverage
Otherregionrespondents
USA
respondents
Europe
respondents
TaiwanMainlandChinarespondentsrespondents
08
Halfofourrespondentsdoubtthatquantumorall-opticalcomputingwillbeviablewithin
10yearsor“ever”.RespondentsworkingforAmericancompaniesarealmosttwiceasoptimisticabouttheviabilityofquantumcomputingastheirpeersworkingforMainlandChinesecompanies.
Whenwillnext-generationfullyopticalorquantumcomputingarchitecturesbecommerciallyandtechnologicallyviable?
0-5years6-10years10+yearsNever
7%43%48%2%
Globalaverage
USAHQedrespondents
EuropeHQedrespondents
TaiwanHQedrespondents
MainlandChinaHQedrespondents
62%
39%
50%
35%
41%
27%
61%
53%
12%
3%
0%
0%
0%
8%
5%
5%
G5A
INTEGRATED
INSIGHTS
OUROPTIMISTICINDUSTRY
AIcon?denceforUSandTaiwanrespondents,whileMainlandChinarespondentspinhopesonautomotiveandpackaging
RespondentsworkinginMainlandChinaaremostenthusiasticaboutlocalcompanies’sharegainsintheautomotiveendmarket,andintheassembly,packaging,andtestingindustrysegment.ThoseworkingintheUSaremostoptimisticabouttheAIendmarket,andthefablessdesignandEDAindustrysegments.TaiwanrespondentsbelievecompaniestherewillcontinuetogainshareinwafermanufacturingandleadintheAIsegment.DespitePCs,phonesandmobiledevicescontinuingtobethelargestsinglesegmentforsemiconductors,thereislittleoptimisminEuropeorUSthatlocalcompanieswillgainmoreshareinthesegment.
Companiesfromyourregionwillgainthemostglobalmarketshareovernext?veyearsin…
…whichendmarket?…whichindustrysegment?
Quantumcomputing
0%0%
4%
8%
0%
18%
3%6%3%
5%
PCsandmobiledevicesIoT
21%
0%
Electri?cationandnewenergy
14%
26%
26%
Automotive
11%
11%
MaterialsandchemicalsTools&equipment
WafermanufacturingAssembly,packagingortesting
39%
63%
41%
62%
Arti?cialIntelligence
23%
16%
TaiwanMainlandChina
Europe
USA
respondents
respondentsrespondents
respondents
09
Semiconductorrelatedsoftware
FablessdesignorEDA
8%
25%
2%
0%
14%
6%
4%
42%
15%
23%
19%
21%
8%
42%
39%
32%
36%
26%
18%
3%
6%
5%
5%
USA
respondents
Europe
TaiwanMainlandChina
respondents
respondentsrespondents
Our“l(fā)ove-hate”relationshipwithgovernmentpolicies
Wewelcomegovernmentpolicyactionswhentheyhelpusattractcapitalortalent,buthavelittleappetiteforactionsthatinterferewithmarketandsupplychainaccess.Despitetheincreasingimpactofgeopolitics,successinourindustrycontinuestobedrivenbytraditionalfactorsofproduct,performanceandprice.
2T3
indicatethatlocal
governmentpoliciesarepositivefortheindustry
OUT
1OF3
requestgovernmentstoprovidemoresubsidies,whileasimilarnumberrequestgovernmentto“getoutoftheway”
Customersof
Taiwanbased
respondentsare
3X
morelikelytoprioritize“absoluteproduct
performance”than
customersofMainlandChinarespondents
10
OUR“LOVE-HATE”RELATIONSHIPWITHGOVERNMENTPOLICIES
Wehategeopolitics,butwe“l(fā)ike”policiesofourlocalgovernment
Morethanhalfoftherespondentsperceivegeopoliticsastheprimarythreattotheindustry.Atthesametime,2/3ofrespondentsbelievethattheirlocalgovernments'policiesarepositivefortheindustry.
Respondentsshowlessconcernfortheentryofsystemorhyperscalercompaniesintothesemiconductorindustryorthepotentialforproductcommoditization.
Pleaseranktheseverityofthreatstothesemiconductorindustryoverthenext10years(1beingmostthreatening)
Leastthreatening
Notenoughtalent
Slowinginnovationandcommoditization
4.23.63.22.61.4
Sloweconomicgrowth
Geopolitics
Verticalintegrationbyendcustomers
Mostthreatening
Aregovernmentpoliciesinyourregionpositiveornegativefortheindustry?
MorenegativethanpositiveMorepositivethannegative
Negative
Positive
21%
20%
7%
5%
45%
VerynegativeNomaterialimpactVerypositive
11
Respondentshavediverseexpectationsofgovernmentpolicies,with1/3prioritizing
government?nancialsupport,1/3favoringderegulation,andonly10%requesting
governmenttohelpimproveglobalmarketaccess.
RespondentsfromEuropeanandTaiwan-basedrespondentsexpressthegreatestconcerns
abouttalent,whileUSandMainlandChinarespondentsaremostlikelytorequestthe
governmentreduceitsin?uence.
Whatisthe#1actionthegovernmentcouldtaketohelpyourregion’ssemiconductorindustry?
Directly
support
18%
32%
32%
domesticinvestment
35%
39%
IncreasesubsidiesDeveloporimporttalent
12%
0%8%
41%
25%
16%
Marketaccess
26%
0%8%
8%
10%
10%
Fightforbetteraccesstoglobalmarkets
5%
8%
3%
18%
Restrictmarketaccesstoforeigncompetitors
9%
31%
19%
Reduce
governmentin?uence
Getoutoftheway&letprivate
23%
companiesdrive
13%
13%
15%
theindustry
13%
5%
Taiwan
Globalaverage
MainlandChina
USA
respondents
Reducebureaucracyandrestrictions
Europe
respondents
respondents
respondents
G5A
INTEGRATED
lNslGHTS
OUR“LOVE-HATE”RELATIONSHIPWITHGOVERNMENTPOLICIES
Atthecompanylevel,performanceandpricearestillking
Geopoliticalriskisnotthemostimportantdriverofprocurementdecisions.Morethan
three-quartersofrespondentsindicatethatproductattributesdrivecustomers’purchasingdecisions.CustomersofMainlandChinaandTaiwan-basedcompaniesaremorelikelytoprioritizerelativeprice-performancethancustomersofEuropeanorAmericancompanies.
Whenyourcustomerschooseproductsorservices,whichoftheseisthemostimportant?
Geopoliticalconcernsarenotomnipresentincorporatedecision-making.Only2outof5
respondentsbelievegovernmentpolicieswillimpacthalformoreofmajorcorporatedecisions,while1outof4believegovernmentpolicieswillhaveminimalimpact.
Intheregionwhereyoudomostofyourbusiness,geopoliticalconcernswillchange
0%0%
Relationshipwithsupplier
Nationalityandgeopoliticalriskofsupplier
Relative
price-performanceoftheproduct
Absoluteperformanceandreliabilityoftheproduct
5%
16%
57%
22%
Globalaverage
4%
16%
20%
19%
16%
68%
46%
39%
68%
31%
11%
32%
29%
0%
Taiwan
respondents
USA
respondents
Mainland
China
respondents
Europe
respondents
Morethanhalfofinvestmentdecisions
Asmall%of
14%
investmentdecisionsoverthenext?veyears
28%
25%
33%
Halfofinvestmentdecisions
Aquarteroftotal
investmentdecisions
12
G5A
INTEGRATED
lNslGHTS
OUR“LOVE-HATE”RELATIONSHIPWITHGOVERNMENTPOLICIES
Attheindustrylevel,therearestarkregionaldifferencesregardingtherelativein?uenceofthegovernmentversusthemarket
Respondentsaresplitontherelativein?uenceofgovernmentandthemarket,bothinsettingindustrydirectionandinfundingindustrycapitalrequirements.56%indicatethatmarket
forceswilldriveindustrystrategy,with53%indicatingthatprivateinvestorswilldriveindustrycapitalinvestment.
Willthegovernmentorthemarketsdriveindustrystrategyandinvestmentgoingforward?
Viewsacrossallglobalrespondents
Di?erentregionsre?ectdi?erentviewsontherelativerolesofgovernmentversusthemarket.
MainlandChinarespondentsseeamoreimportantroleforgovernmentpoliciesandfunding,
whereasUSandTaiwan-basedrespondentsindicateastrongerbeliefinthecentralroleof
privateinvestorsandmarkets.
Viewsbetweenregionalrespondents
Primarydriverofindustrystrategy
13
PrimarydriverofIndustrystrategy
Government
18%
26%
Themarkets
35%
Privateinvestors
21%
Governmentfunds
Primarydriverofindustryinvestment
Government
MainlandChina
respondents
Themarkets
Europerespondents
USA
respondents
Globalaverage
Taiwan
respondents
PrivateinvestorsGovernmentfunds
Primarydriverofindustryinvestment
G5A
INTEGRATED
lNslGHTS
OUR“LOVE-HATE”RELATIONSHIPWITHGOVERNMENTPOLICIES
Thegreaterthepolicybiastowardslocalplayers,themorelocalplayerssupportgovernmentpolicy
Amajorityofrespondentsbelievethatgovernmentpolicyisbiasedtowardslocalsemiconductorcompanies.RespondentsinMainlandChinaandTaiwanreportthemost“l(fā)ocal
bias”andarealsothemostsatis?edwiththeirgovernment’spolicies.Europeanrespondents
indicatetheleastbiastowardslocalcompaniesaswellastheleastsatisfactionwithgovernmentpolicy.
Morefavorableviewstowardsgovernmentpolicycorrespondtomorepreferentialtreatmentoflocalcompanies
ThereisaperceptiongapregardingtherelativesupportthattheChinesegovernmentgivesto
localcompanies.4outof5respondentsthatworkinMainlandChinafornon-Chinese
companiesperceivealargepolicybiastowardslocalcompanies,whileonlyhalfoftherespondentsworkforlocalChinesecompaniesholdthesameperspective.Thisperceptiongapisnotobservedelsewhere.
Intheregionwhereyouwork,dogovernmentpoliciessupportlocalorforeign?rmsmore?
Impactofgovernmentpolicy
ontheindustry
Mar
inlandChinaespondents
Taiwresponde
annts
Eurrespond
opeents
res
US
pondents
◆
Netnegative/
preferencing
foreign
companies
Netpr
eferentialtolo
cals
(25%)0%25%50%75%
75%
50%
25%
0%
(25%)
WorkinginMainlandChina,forlocal
Chinesecompanies
WorkinginMainlandChina,fornon
Chinesecompanies
Workinginotherregions
6%
16%
29%
48%
8%
8%8%
77%
8%
18%
40%
33%
Supportlocal
companiesmuchmore
Supportglobalcompaniesmore
Equal
treatment
Supportlocal
companiesalittlemore
Localgovernmentpolicybiastowardslocalcompanies
14
G5A
INTEGRATED
lNslGHTS
Ourviewsontechnology
competitionbetweennations
Weexpecttheemergenceofabifurcatedglobalsemiconductorsupplychain.WhileglobalrespondentsaremoreoptimisticaboutandinvestingmoreintheUS-alignedsupplychain,theyseeMainlandChina’sstrengthinmanufacturingandscalingnewtechnologies.CompanieshavediverserevenueexposuretotheChina-centricsemiconductorsupplychainandhavedivergingexpectationsregardingthefutureofthatsupplychain.
72%
believethatbothUSand
MainlandChinawillcontinuetoerectbarrierstotechnology
collaborationgoingforward
4T5
believethesemiconductorsupplychainwillbifurcatebetweenUSandChina-centricspheres
84%
ofMainlandChinarespondentsselecttheUnitedStatesasthe
mostattractivelocationfortalent
70%
believeEuropeancompanieswill
primarilyuseAmerican-sourced
technology,while52%believethe
MiddleEastwilluseequalamountsofAmericanandChinesetechnology
15
TECHNOLOGYCOMPETITIONBETWEENNATIONS
Abifurcatingsemiconductorindustry
MostrespondentsexpecttheUSandChinesegovernmentstoreducecollaborationopportunitiesandmarketaccesstocompaniesfromtheothercountry.35%ofrespondentsworkingformainlandChinesecompaniesbelieveChinawillimprovemarketaccess,whileonly15%ofrespondentsworkingforUScompaniessharethesameperspective.
WhichoftheseisthemostlikelyoutcomeofUS-Chinatechnologycompetitionin5years?
USgovernmentapproachtotechnology
collaborationwithChina
Moreopen
Moreclosed
4%
68%
4%
24%
MoreclosedMoreopen
ChinesegovernmentapproachtotechnologycollaborationwiththeUSA
16
AlargemajorityofrespondentsanticipatetheglobaltechnologyindustrywillsplitintotwoseparatesupplychainstoservetherespectiveUSandMainlandChinesemarkets,withthestabilityofthesetwosupplychainstobe5ormoreyearsinthefuture.
Whatwillbethemostlikelyregionalstructureoftheglobaltechindustryin5-10years?
Leastdisruptiontocurrentstructure
70%
Mostdisruptiontocurrentstructure
9%
9%
12%
Therewillbetwo
“completelyseparate”technologysupply
chains,onefortheChinesemarket
andonefortheAmericanmarket
Therewillbetwo
“mostlyseparate”
Americ
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