2024年全球房地產(chǎn)泡沫指數(shù)（英）-UBS

UBSGlobal

RealEstate

BubbleIndex

September2024|ChiefInvestmentOfficeGWM|Investmentresearch

Content

3Editorial

4Keyresults

5Catchingbreath

7Regions

13Benchmarks

15Spotlights

22Overview

23Methodology&data

UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex

Thisreporthasbeenpreparedby

UBSSwitzerlandAG,UBSAGSingapore

Branch,UBSAGHongKongBranch,UBSAGLondonBranchandUBSFinancialServices

Inc.(UBSFS).

Pleaseseetheimportantdisclaimerattheendofthedocument.Pastperformanceisnotanindication

offuturereturns.

2UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

EditorinChief

MatthiasHolzhey

Authors

MatthiasHolzheyMaciejSkoczek

ClaudioSaputelliKatharinaHoferThomasRieder

Regionalcontributors

JonathanWoloshin(US)

DeanTurner(London)

WenChingLee(Singapore)MatteoRamenghi(Milan)RonaldoPatah(S?oPaulo)FahdIqbal(Dubai)

Editorialdeadline

23September2024

Design

CIOContentDesign

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GettyImages

Language

English

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ubs-cio-wm@

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Electronicsubscriptionisalso

availableviaInvestmentViewsontheUBSe-bankingplatform.

Editorial

Dearreader,

You’dbeforgivenforthinkingthatglobalhousingmarketscurrentlyseemlikethe

playgroundofcentralbanks.Sincethefinancialcrisisin2008,moneysupplyhas

expandedrapidlyandinterestrateshavebeenlowered—oftenintonegativeterritory—asthemerestwhiffofeconomicturmoilappearedonthehorizon.Whentheeconomywasrunningsmoothlyagain,interestrateswerehardlyraised.Consequently,thepricedevelopmentofresidentialrealestatewasoftenaone-waystreet.Asaresult,housingbubbleriskreachedrecordhighsinmanyglobalmetropolitanareas.

Theriseininterestrates,foralongtimeconsideredunlikely,camewiththepost-

pandemicinflationspike.Housingpricesresetwherehighimbalanceshadaccumu-lated.HomesinmajorEuropeancitieslostuptoaquarteroftheirvalueinrealtermsandimbalancescorrectedrapidly.Realestatebubbleriskhasalsofallenconsiderablyincitieswherehomevalueshaveshownrelativestabilityduringtheinterestrate

turnaroundlikeSydneyandVancouver,sinceextremehousingshortagesandrisingrentshelpedstabilizemarketsthere.

Unintentionally,centralbankshavemeanwhilelaidthefoundationforthenextpriceboom.Sincethesharpriseininterestratesthwartedtheplansofmanyrealestate

developers,newconstructionhasnosedivedinmanycitiesandlookssettoexacer-batethehousingshortage,therebyleadingtoupwardpricepressureinthefuture.InthiseditionoftheUBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex,discovermoreaboutgrow-ing,existing,anddeflatingbubblerisksandwhereinterestratecutsshouldhelprevi-talizethehousingmarket.

Wewishyouanengagingread.

ClaudioSaputelli

HeadSwiss&GlobalRealEstateChiefInvestmentOfficeGWM

MatthiasHolzhey

SeniorRealEstateEconomistChiefInvestmentOfficeGWM

3UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

Keyresults

Stockholm

0.98

0.32

Amsterdam

Toronto

1.03

Frankfurt

London0.41Paris0.35

Geneva1.00

Vancouver0.77

0.750.23Warsaw

NewYork

0.37

SanFrancisco0.48

LosAngeles1.17

1.51Zurich

0.54Munich

Boston

0.64Dubai

0.78

0.56

Madrid

1.67Tokyo0.74HongKong

1.79

0.20Milan

Miami

0.69TelAviv

0.59Singapore

Bubbleriskscores,2024

0.04S?oPaulo

High(>1.5)

Elevated(1.0to1.5)Moderate(0.5to1.0)Low(<0.5)

0.78Sydney

Reshufflingofrisks

ImbalanceshavedeclinedinEurope,

remainedstableinAsia-Pacific,and

increasedintheUS.WhileMiamitopsthebubbleriskrankingthisyear,Dubaihasrecordedthehighestriskincreasesincemid-2023.

Housingshortage

Buildingpermitshavebeendeclininginmostcitiesamiddeterioratingfinancingconditions.Realrentshaveacceleratedinamajorityofcitiesandincreasedbymorethan5%onaverageoverthelasttwoyears.

Burstingbubbles

Wherehighimbalancesaccumulated,

realhousepriceshaveshed20%sincemid-2021.Thiscomparestoacorrectionof2%onaverageforallothercitiesinthestudy.

Marketfreeze

Buyerscanafford40%lesslivingspacethanin2021,beforeinterestrates

increased.Asaresult,fewerpropertiesarebeingbought,apparentinsharplylowergrowthofoutstandingmortgagevolumes.

Correctionover

Averagerealhousepricesincreasedby2%comparedtolastsummer.But,pricechangeswereuneven:WhilerealpricesinParisandHongKongfellby10%,

WarsawandDubairecordeddouble-digitincreases.

Thetideisturning

Withfinancingcostssettobecome

moreattractive,housingdemandisbot-tomingoutandpricesshouldaccelerate.Economicgrowthwillbecrucialindeter-miningthepricedynamics.

4UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

Catchingbreath

TherisksofhousingbubblesinthecitiesanalyzedintheUBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndexhave,onaverage,decreasedslightlyforthesecondconsecutiveyear.Fromaregionalper-spective,thepictureismorenuanced:Imbalanceshavegener-allydeclinedfurtherinEurope,remainedstableinAsia-Pacific,andincreasedintheUS.

Miaminowshowsthehighestbubbleriskamongthecitiesinthisstudy.HighbubbleriskcanalsobeseeninTokyoand,

despiteasignificantdeclineinthescorecomparedtolastyear,Zurich.AnelevatedriskofahousingpricebubbleisevidentinLosAngeles,Toronto,andGeneva.

OnlyamoderateriskisrecordedinAmsterdam,Sydney,andBoston.Inthesameriskcategoryare,afterverystrongreduc-tionsinimbalances,Frankfurt,Munich,TelAviv,andHong

Kong.Vancouver,Dubai,Singapore,andMadridcompletethisgroupofmoderate-bubble-riskcities.Dubairecordedthe

strongestincreaseintheriskscoreofallthecitiesanalyzed.

AccordingtotheIndex,alowriskofarealestatebubbleisevi-dentinSanFranciscoandNewYork.InEurope,afterfurther

declinesintheindexscore,London,Paris,Stockholm,and

Milanfallintothislow-riskcategorytoo.BubbleriskinWar-sawremainslowaswell.S?oPauloshowsthelowestbubbleriskamongthecitiesanalyzed.

Boomandbust

Inflation-adjustedhousingpricesinthecitiesanalyzedare

now,onaverage,roughly15%lowerthaninmid-2022,wheninterestratesstartedtosurgeglobally.Thecitiesrecordingthestrongestpricecorrectionsarethosethatdisplayedahighriskofarealestatebubbleinpreviousyears.RealpricesinFrank-furt,Munich,Stockholm,HongKong,andParisare20%or

morebelowtheirpost-pandemicpeaks.Vancouver,Toronto,andAmsterdamrecordedsignificantpricedeclinesofaround10%inrealterms.

Overall,thelastfourquarterswerecharacterizedbymutedhousepricegrowth.ButstrongcorrectionscontinuedinParisandHongKong.Incontrast,inthesought-afterlocationsofDubaiandMiami,homepricescontinuedtosurge.Also,insomecitieswithpronouncedhousingshortages,likeVancou-ver,Sydney,andMadrid,realpriceshaveincreasedbymorethan5%comparedtolastyear.

5UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndexBubbleriskscoresforthehousingmarketsofselectcities,2024

1.797

0.00.51.01.5

1Miami

1.6771.51、

2Tokyo

1.17λ

1.03、1.00、0.98λ

3Zurich

4LosAngeles

5Toronto

6Geneva

0.78λ0.78λ

0.77、 0.75、0.74、0.69、0.64λ

7Amsterdam

8Sydney

9Boston

10Vancouver

11Frankfurt

12HongKong

13TelAviv

0.59λ 0.56λ0.54、0.48λ

14Dubai

15Singapore

16Madrid

17Munich

0.41、0.37、0.35、

18SanFrancisco

19London

20NewYork

0.32、0.23λ0.20、0.04、

21Paris

22Stockholm

23Warsaw

24Milan

25S?oPaulo

、λ?

High

(>1.5)

Elevated

(1.0to1.5)

Moderate

(0.5to1.0)

Low

(<0.5)

Bubbleriskscorechangevs.2023

Source:UBS

Foranexplanation,seethesectiononMethodology&dataonpage23.

Identifyingabubble

Pricebubblesarearecurringphenomenoninpropertymarkets.Theterm“bubble”referstoasubstantialandsustainedmispric-ingofanasset,theexistenceofwhichcannotbeprovedunlessitbursts.Buthistoricaldatarevealspatternsofpropertymarketexcesses.Typicalsignsincludeadecouplingofpricesfromlocalincomesandrents,andimbalancesintherealeconomy,such

asexcessivelendingandconstructionactivity.TheUBSGlobal

RealEstateBubbleIndexgaugestheriskofapropertybubbleonthebasisofsuchpatterns.Theindexdoesnotpredictwhetherandwhenacorrectionwillsetin.Achangeinmacroeconomicmomentum,ashiftininvestorsentiment,oramajorsupply

increasecouldtriggeradeclineinhouseprices.

Catchingbreath

Noaffordability,nopanic

Thefinanciallyaffordablelivingspaceforaskilledservice-sectorworkeris,onaverage,40%lessthanin2021,

beforetheriseinglobalinterestrates.Currentpricelev-elsthusseemfarfromsustainableatprevailinginterestratelevels—especiallyinmarketswithhighhomeowner-shipratessuchasTorontoorLosAngeles.

However,asignificantdeteriorationinaffordabilitydoesnotnecessarilycauseastrongpricecorrection,asseeninSydney,Vancouver,Madrid,andsomecitiesintheUS.

Homeownersarereluctanttosellatalossandtheincen-tivetostayputincreasesfurtherifthecurrenthomehasbeenfavorablyfinanced.Withdecliningtransactionvol-umes,apparentinsharplylowergrowthofoutstandingmortgagevolumes,pricescancontinuetorise,evenif

overallunderlyingdemandhasdecreasedsignificantly.

Housingshortagesavestheday

Anincreasinghousingshortage,reflectedinrisingrents,hasalsohelpedstabilizemanyurbanhousingmarkets.

Realrentshaveincreasedby5%onaverageoverthelasttwoyearsandhaveoutpacedincomegrowthinmost

cases.Inamajorityofcities,rentshaveevenacceleratedalmosteverywhereelseinthelastfourquarters.Thishascontributedtolowerbubbleriskscoresglobally.

Norelieftothehousingshortageislikelyfromthesupplyside,ashighinterestratesandincreasedbuildingcosts

haveseverelyhamperedhousingconstruction.Buildingpermitshavedeclinedinmostcitiesoverthepasttwo

years.Lookingforward,thehousingshortageislikelytobecomeabiggerchallenge,makingcitylivingevenlessaffordable.However,forexistinghomeownersandespe-ciallyforbuy-to-letinvestors,thismayrepresentonly

seeminglygoodnewsashousingshortagesoftenleadtopoliticalinterventioninthehousingmarket—withunpre-dictableconsequences.

Reliefinsight

Themomentuminthehousingmarketissettoimprove.Risingrentsunderpindemandforhomeownershipin

urbanareas.Fallinginterestrateswillshifttheuser-cost

advantagesharplybackfromrentingtobuying.First-timehomebuyerswouldreturntothemarketasaffordability

improves.Inourview,realhousepricesinmanycitieshavebottomedout.Theeconomicoutlookwilllikelydeterminewhetherpricesonceagainsurgeortracksideways.

RisingpricesinthemajorityofcitiesRealhousepricegrowth,annualizedin%

20232024

.Dubai

.Warsaw

●Miami

●●Amsterdam●●Tokyo

..Vancouver

.Madrid

..Singapore

●●Zurich

..Sydney

.Milan

.S?oPaulo

LosAngeles

●●TelAviv

.Boston

.●NewYork

.SanFrancisco

Geneva

.Toronto

..London

.Frankfurt

..Stockholm

.Munich

..Paris

.HongKong

–10–5051015

Last4quarters

Last5years

Bubbleriskassessment

Source:SeethesectiononMethodology&dataonpage23.

6UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

Regions

Eurozone

BothFrankfurtandMunichdisplayedaveryhighriskofa

housingbubbleasrecentlyas2022.Sincethen,risingmort-

gagerateshaveseenbothmarketstumble,withhousepricesfallingbyonefifthsincetheirrespectivepeaks.Asrentsand

incomesremainedfirm,theriskofarealestatebubblehas

declinedtomoderate(seespotlightFrankfurtp.18).Thecor-rectionhasbeenlosingsteaminthelastfourquarters.Lowerexpectedinterestratespairedwithlowsupplyshouldseea

recoveryinprices.However,anewboomisunlikelyinthenearfuture,inourview.

Backedbyfallingmortgageratesandstronginternational

demand,realpricesincreasedinParisby30%between2015and2020.Stretchedaffordabilityandshortsupplyoflarger

flatsforfamiliesweighedonthecity’sattractiveness.Out-

migrationhasreducedthepopulationby6%withinthelast

10years.Additionallendingrestrictions,highermortgage

rates,andapropertytaxhikethrottleddemand.Inrealterms,priceshavecorrectedbymorethan20%since2021.Witha10%declineoverthelastfourquarters,PariswastheweakestEuropeanhousingmarketamongallcitiesinthestudy.The

bubbleriskiscurrentlylow.

HomepricesinMilanhavecontinuedtooutperformthe

nationalaverage.Arobusteconomy,newdevelopments,andafavorabletaxregimehavesupportedhousingdemand.How-ever,ininflation-adjustedterms,pricesandrentsremainat

2018levels.Asaresultofhigherfinancingcosts,mortgage

growthhassloweddown.Overall,bubbleriskislow.Inaddi-tiontosolidprospectsforthelocaleconomy,anextensionoftheundergroundrailway,andtheupcoming2026OlympicWinterGamesmayhaveapositiveimpactonthemarket.

ThebubbleriskinMadrid’shousingmarkethasincreased

comparedtolastyearbutismoderate.Althoughrealprices

arestill25%belowtheirall-timepeakin2007,thehousing

marketintheSpanishcapitalhasdecoupledfromtherestofthecountryoverthepastfewyears.Stronghouseholdforma-tionandinvestmentdemandintensifiedthehousingshortage.Realrentsincreasedby15%overthelastfourquarters.

Hence,homepricesincreasedby5%betweenmid-2023andmid-2024,despiteunfavorablefinancingconditions.

Between2012and2022,realhousepricesinAmsterdam

doubled,decouplingfromotherDutchregionsandthelocalrentalmarket,propellingthebubblerisktohighterritory.

Worseningfinancingconditions,inflationdiminishinghouse-holds’purchasingpowerandtheirwillingnesstobuyahome,andthereductionofthegiftallowanceforhomeownershipexacerbatedthesituation.Ahighertransfertaxandprohibi-tionofrentingoutafterthepurchaseworsenedconditionsforinvestors,too.Asaconsequence,realpricesfellby15%

between2022and2023.Butonthebackofscarcesupply,

robustincomegrowth,andlowermortgagerates,themarketbottomedoutquickly.Realpricesarenow7%higherthanayearagoandthebubbleriskismoderate.

Historicaldevelopmentofindexscores

2.5

1.5

0.5

–0.5

–1.5

8488929600040812162024

FrankfurtMunichAmsterdam

Source:UBS

8488929600040812162024

MadridMilanParis

Source:UBS

high

elevatedmoderate

low

7UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

Regions

RestofEurope

London’shousingmarkethasshedaquarterofitsvaluesinceitsall-timepeakin2016.AsinflationfellandtheBankofEng-landdecreasedinterestrates,realhousingpricesstabilized.

Moreratecutsareexpected,whichcouldrevivedemandfor

homepurchases,especiallysincerentsarealsoontherise.Theskiesappearcloudierontheprimemarketwhereuncertaintyoverunfavorabletaxationschemesforthewealthythreatenstounderminedemandinthissegment.Overall,theriskofarealestatebubbleislow,inourview(seespotlightLondonp.21).

Buyingowner-occupiedrealestateinZurichnowcostscloseto25percentmorethanfiveyearsago.ThedemandforhousingissteadilygrowingasZurich′spopulationhasconsistentlyincreasedbywelloveronepercentannuallyoverthelastdecade,except

duringthetwopandemicyears.Zurichhasseenoneofthehigh-estrentincreasesofallthecitiesinthestudyoverthelastfour

quarters.Consequently,theriskofarealestatebubblehas

decreasedbutisstillconsideredhigh(seespotlightZurichp.17).

Sincethepandemic,pricesinGenevahaverisenonlyhalfas

muchasinZurich.Theyareabout10%higherinrealterms

thanfiveyearsago,buthavestagnatedoverthelastfourquar-ters.ThecityofGenevarecordedthestrongestpopulation

growthsince2015,endingathree-yearperiodofstagnation.Althoughconstructionactivityhashardlyslowedintheregioninrecentquarters,itcannotkeeppacewiththestrengtheneddemand.Accordingly,rentsinGenevahaverisenmoresharplythanincomesoverthelastfourquarters.Therealestatebubbleriskhasdeclinedandisnowjustbarelyintheelevatedzone.

Between2009and2021,fallingmortgageratesboosted

demandforowner-occupiedhomesinStockholm,causing

realhousingpricestorisebyabout90%,outpacinglocal

incomesandrents.Excessivehousingvaluationscombined

withhighhouseholddebtandvariable-ratemortgagesturnedouttobeadangerousmix.Risinginterestratesandaweak

localeconomycauseddemandtoplummetandtriggeredasharppricecorrection.Overthelastthreeyears,realpriceshavefallenbyalmost30%.Fornow,thebubbleriskislow,andthecorrectionislosingsteam.Demandforowner-occu-piedhousingislikelytoriseagainasaffordabilityimproves.Theoverregulatedandundersuppliedrentalmarketisnotaviablealternativeformanyprospectiveowners.

RealhousepricesinWarsawsurgednearly30%between

2012and2022.Strongemploymentprospects,subway

expansions,andmodernhousingdevelopmentskeptthemar-ketattractivefornewresidentsandbuy-to-letinvestors.How-ever,Poland′scapitalhasbecomeincreasinglyunaffordable.

Highermortgageratesledtoarealpricedropofroughly10%in2022.Anewgovernment-sponsoredsubsidyprogramtrig-geredanotherbuyingfrenzy.Priceshaverisenbyover15%

sinceearly2023.Inthefirsthalfof2024,manybuyerswerelookingtoevenmoregeneroussubsidies,butthesehavenotbeenforthcoming.Consequently,pricedynamicsarelikelytoslowinthecomingquarters.

Historicaldevelopmentofindexscores

2.5

l

1.5

0.5

–0.5

–1.58488929600040812162024

LondonStockholmWarsaw

Source:UBS

8488929600040812162024

ZurichGeneva

Source:UBS

high

elevatedmoderate

low

8UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

2.5

1.5

0.5

–0.5

–1.5

Regions

UnitedStates

ThehomeownershipmarketintheUSsuffersfromincreasingunaffordabilityasthemedianmonthlymortgagepaymentasapercentageofmedianhouseholdincomeiswellabovethat

experiencedduringthepeakofthe2006/2007housingbub-ble.AsalargeshareofallUSsingle-familyhomeshasno

mortgageorlow,locked,longer-termmortgagecontracts,webelievemanypotentialbuyersarewaitingformoreattractivemortgagerates.Asaresult,fewerpropertiesarebeingsold.Thiskeepsthesupplytightandsupportspropertyprices.Infla-tion-adjustedpricesincreasedby2%betweenmid-2023andmid-2024onaverageinallanalyzedUScities.Withmore

interestratecutsonthehorizon,affordabilitywillimprove,andtransactionactivityshouldincrease.Move-upbuyersarealsolikelytoacceptslightlyimprovedfinancingconditionsastheywouldbepositionedtouselargerdownpaymentsgiventheirexistingequity.

Despitepooraffordability,NewYork′shousingpriceshave

notcorrectedsharply.Theyareonly4%below2019levelsandhaveevenslightlyincreasedoverthelastfourquarters.The

vacancyratehasdroppedtoahistoriclowasaresultofplum-metingnewconstructionactivity.Butoverall,bubbleriskis

low.Thepopulationhasnotyetrecoveredfromthepandemicout-migration.However,luxurypropertypriceshaverecentlycomeunderpressure.Althoughamajorityofhomesalesarecashpurchases,highinterestratesarestartingtotaketheir

toll.

Boston’shousingmarkethasrecordeda20%pricegrowthsince2019,outpacingboththelocalrentalmarketand

incomegrowth.Thebubbleriskiscurrentlymoderate,inour

view.However,thelocaleconomyhasbeenstruggling

recently,withlayoffs,especiallyinthetechandlifesciencessectors.Additionally,remoteworkinghasshiftedpartofthehousingdemandtothesuburbanmarket.

Fueledbyaboomingluxurymarket,pricesinMiamihaverisenbyalmost50%sincetheendof2019,7%ofwhichwasinthelastfourquartersinrealterms.Imbalanceshaveincreasedsig-nificantlyinrecentyears,andthebubbleriskinMiamihasrisentohighlevelthisyear(seespotlightMiamip.16).

InLosAngeles,realhousepriceshavebarelyincreasedoverthepastyear.Asaresultofdecreasingeconomiccompetitive-nessandhighlivingcosts,thepopulationinLosAngeles

Countyhasbeendecliningsince2016.Consequently,rents

havenotkeptpacewithconsumerprices.The2028OlympicGamescouldstimulatethemarket,thankstonewinfrastruc-tureprojectsandimprovementsinpublictransport.Market

imbalanceshaveonlyincreasedslightly,andthebubbleriskinLosAngelesremainselevated.

TheSanFranciscohousingmarketshowssignsofatrend

reversal.Realpricescorrectedbyroughly10%aftertherateincreasesin2022,butremainedstableoverthepastfour

quarters.Thecityremainsunderpressurefromquality-of-lifeissues,elevatedhybridworkpatterns,andcompetitionwithsun-beltcitiesthatattracttechnologycompanies.Inflation-

adjustedrentsaremorethan20%lowerthanbeforethepan-demic.Buthousingdemandshowssignsofimprovement.Aboomingstockmarketandfallinginterestrateshavealreadystartedtorevitalizetheluxurysegmentandsalesarerising.

Historicaldevelopmentofindexscores

8488929600040812162024

NewYorkBostonMiami

Source:UBS

8488929600040812162024

SanFranciscoLosAngeles

Source:UBS

high

elevatedmoderate

low

9UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

Regions

Canada

Strongpopulationgrowth,attractivefinancingconditions,

highinvestmentdemand,andlimitedsupplydrovehome

pricestonewrecordsfrom2000to2022.Consequently,theriskofarealestatebubblewashigh.

Thehighinflationofthepasttwoyearshassignificantlycon-tributedtoreducingimbalancesinthehousingmarketinCan-ada.Despitesignificantlydecreasedaffordability,thehome

markethasheldupwell.Ininflation-adjustedterms,purchasepricesinbothTorontoandVancouverareonlyslightlybelowthelevelsofthreeyearsago.

Atthesametime,rentshaverisensharply.InVancouver,

rentsareabout10%higherinrealtermsthanin2021.Rela-tivetoincomegrowth,homepriceshavenotincreasedexces-sivelyinrecentyears.Accordingly,therealestatebubbleriskisnowinthemoderaterange.

InToronto,therealestatebubbleriskhasalsodeclinedcom-paredtopreviousyearsbutisstillconsideredelevated.BothrentsandincomeshavegrownmoreslowlyinthelastthreeyearscomparedtoVancouver.

Theanticipatedinterestratecutsbythecentralbankarelikelytoacceleratepricegrowthinbothcitiesagain,asthedemandfromparticularlyinterest-sensitivefirst-homebuyersincreases.Thebanonforeignbuyers,risinginventories,andasubduedeconomicoutlookargueagainstaquickresurgenceoftherealestateboom.

2.5

1.5

0.5

–0.5

–1.5

Historicaldevelopmentofindexscores

8488929600040812162024

VancouverToronto

Source:UBS

10UBSGlobalRealEstateBubbleIndex2024

Brazil

Afteraprolongedperiodofweakness,homepricesinS?o

Paulohavenowslightlyincreasedininflation-adjustedtermsforthesecondconsecutiveyear.However,realpricesremainmorethan20%belowthepeakattheendof2014.Rentingremainsfinanciallymoreattractivethanhomeownershipduetoveryhighinterestrates.Asaresult,rentshavesurgedbyalmost10%inrealtermsoverthelastfourquarters.Conse-quently,thereiscurrentlylowrealestatebubblerisk.

Robusteconomicgrowth,duetoloosefiscalpolicy,isgener-allysupportingdemandforhousingingoodlocations.Thisisalsoreflectedinasignificantincreaseintransactionactivity.

However,givenpersistentlyhighinflation,there’sahighprob-abilityofinterestratehikesinthecomingquarters,whichlim-itstheupsideforrealhomeprices.

081012141618202224

S?oPaulo

Source:UBS

high

elevatedmoderate

low

Regions

AsiaPacific

Inthelastfourquarters,realhousingpricesinHongKongrecordedadouble-digitdecline.Ininflation-adjustedterms,housepricesarebackatlevelslastseenin2012.Thenumberoftransactionsfellsharply,andmortgagegrowthcametoastandstillinthelastfourquarters.

Highinterestrates,anemicpopulationgrowth,andalackofbuyeroptimismallcontributedtoweakhousingdemand.

However,residentialrentsandhouseholdincomesposted

moderategainsinthepreviousyear,contributingtolower

imbalances.Bubbleriskdeclinedsharplyinthelastfourquar-ters,andthecityisnowonlyinmoderatebubble-riskterritory.

Solideconomicgrowthandlowerinterestratesshouldunder-pindemandnextyear.Torestorebuyerconfidenceinthehous-ingmarket,stampdutieswerecanceledearlyin2024.How-

ever,inthenextthreetofouryears,newlybuiltapartments

totalingnearly10%ofthehousingstockwillbeavailableonthemarket.Overall,thebottomshouldbeinsight,even

thoughinventorieshavetofallbeforealastingpricerebound.

InSingapore’sprivatehousingmarket,rentgrowthoutpacedpricegrowthoverthepastfiveyears,drivenbyglobaltalentinfluxandconstructiondelays.Lastyear,however,realrents

fellby7%whilepricesroseby3%.Theriskofahousingbub-bleismoderate(seespotlightSingaporep.20).Governmentcoolingmeasureshavereducedforeigndemand,especiallyinluxurymarkets.Highinterestratesandeasedsupplybottle-

neckshaveincreasedunsold