劍橋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)研究中心-優(yōu)化抗災(zāi)能力：通過(guò)建筑規(guī)范和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施保護(hù)社會(huì)（英）

OPTIMISINGDISASTER

RESILIENCE

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CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,2024.OptimisingDisasterResilience.CambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesattheUniversityofCambridgeJudgeBusinessSchool

TheviewscontainedinthisreportareentirelythoseoftheresearchteamoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies,anddonotimplyanyendorsementoftheseviewsbytheorganisationssupportingtheresearch,orourconsultantsandcollaborators.TheresultsoftheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudiesresearchpresentedinthisreportareforinformationpurposesonly.Thisreportisnotintendedtoprovideasufficientbasisonwhichtomakeaninvestmentdecision.TheCentreisnotliableforanylossordamagearisingfromitsuse.

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OptimisingDisasterResilience

Protectingsocietythroughbuildingcodesandinfrastructure

Outline

Foreword 3

Executivesummary 5

Introductionandbackgroundriskanalysis 14

Optimisingdisasterresponse–anupdate 14

Climatechangeandhurricanes 18

Awarmerworld 18

Hurricanetrendstolookoutfor 19

Climatechangeimplicationsforinsurance 23

AdaptationeffectivenessofFEMAspending 26

FEMAhazardmitigationprogrammes 26

Dataoverview 27

Methodology 29

Results 32

Trends 34

Conclusion 38

Casestudies:Floridahurricanes 40

HurricanesIan,WilmaandCharley 40

HurricaneCharley 40

HurricaneWilma 43

HurricaneIan 45

Thebalancebetweenlong-termplanningandshort-termrelief 47

Buildingcodes 48

Buildingcoderevisions 49

Insurance,reinsuranceandreforms 50

Glossary 52

References 55

OptimisingDisasterResilienceCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies

Foreword

JonGale

ChiefUnderwritingOfficerAXAXL,Reinsurance

AndrewMacFarlaneHeadofClimate

AXAXL

“Predictingraindoesn’tcount,buildingarksdoes”–WarrenBuffet’sNoahRuleistheessenceofthisstudybytheCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies(CCRS).Whatcanwedotodaytolessentheimpactofwhateverachangingclimatemeanstomorrow?

The(re)insuranceindustryisattheforefrontofclimateriskandcandelivervaluetocommunitiesandbusinesseslikenoother.Gettingpeoplebackontheirfeetquickly,andinabetterstate,isaworthygoalforourindustrybutjust‘BuildingBackBetter’ignores‘BuildBetterBefore’.Whatcanwedonowtoreducevulnerabilitytofutureevents?

ThroughourpreviouscollaborationwithCCRSwelookedatdisasterrecoveryandtheimportantrolethat(re)insurancehasinthiscomplexprocess.Amongstotherthings,thepreviousreportfoundthatforevery1%increaseininsurancepenetration(measuredasGrossWrittenPremiumas%ofGDP)thatthespeedofdisasterrecoveryreducedbyapproximately12months

.1

WearedelightedtobeabletosupportCCRSastheyhaveresearcheddisasterpreparednessbylookingattheroleofpre-disasterinvestmentandtheimportanceofupdatedandenforcedbuildingscodesinsupportingeffectiveriskmitigation.Adaptingourbuiltenvironmentisespeciallyimportantinthefaceofachangingclimateduetotheexpectedimpactsthatwearelikelytoseeasaresultofchangingfrequencyandseverityofcatastrophicevents.

ThereportclearlyshowsthatwithrespecttoUShurricanes,spendingbytheFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)hasresultedinsignificantsavingswhenitcomestopropertydamagesafteracatastrophicevent.Thisshowsthesizeablereturnoninvestmentthatisavailablefrompre-disasterinvestmentinresilience.ItalsoshowsthewillingnessoftheUStocontinuetoinvestinpre-emptivemeasureswithpre-disasterspendingincreasingmarkedlyfrom2013onwards.

FromtheirresearchtheCCRSteamfoundthatapproximatelyeveryadditionalUSD1FEMAspendhassavedonaverageUSD16indamagesbetween2000and2022,asignificantimpactonsocietalresilience.

Thereportalsolooksatthreesimilarevents:HurricanesCharley(2004),Wilma(2005)andIan(2022)andhowtheimpactsofthoseeventshavechangedovertime.ThesimilarityoftheseeventsintermsofwheretheymadelandfallandtheirtrackallowedCCRStocomparetheimpactsofbuildingcodesandinvestmentsininfrastructureovertime.

ThefindingsofpriorFEMAresearchshowthatbuildingcodespostHurricaneAndrewandthesubsequentintroductionofmorerigorousbuildingcodeshavereducedlossesbysome70%from

1CambridgeCentreforRiskStudies&AXAXL2020

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hurricanesofvaryingstrengthsacrossFlorida.Astheclimatechangesandareasbecomeriskier(re)insurerswillneedtoreflectthisintheirpremiums,andthisreportshowsthattheongoingevolutionofbuildingcodesmeansthatinmanycasesriskcanbecontrolledand,insomecases,reduce.

Ourreinsuranceclientswhocapturethisinformationinexposuredata,whotailorunderwritingguidelinesandwhogivecreditforinvestmentinresiliencewillperformbetterintermsofclaimsfromextremeevents,andmoreimportantly,theiroriginalinsuredswillnotbeasadverselyimpacted.

Giventheroleof(re)insuranceindisasterrecovery,itisimportantasanindustrythatweunderstandhowinvestmentinresiliencecontributestoriskmitigationandadaptation.AXA’spurposeisto“advancehumanprogressbyprotectingwhatmatters”.Inthefaceofachangingclimate,ensuringthatcommunitiesandourclientsareequippedandpreparedtobemoreresilientisreallyattheheartofourpurposeofprotectingwhatmatters.

OptimisingDisasterResilienceCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies

Executivesummary

Headlines

?Disasterrecordscontinuetobebrokenyear-on-year,consistentwithexpectedeffectsfromanthropogenicclimatechange

?Climatechangeisaffectingtheseverityofhurricanes–thestrongeststormsaremorelikelyandincreasedheatleadstomoreatmosphericmoistureandgreaterflooding.Thecostofriskhasincreasedcomparedtothepast

?FEMAspendingintheyearsleadinguptoastormisreducingtheimpactofdamagesfromstormsthathappeninlateryears;continuedspendingtostrengtheninfrastructureisessentialinfutureyears

?StrongbuildingcodeshavereducedlossesinFlorida,whichhelpstosuppressinsurancepremiumrates.Damagestobuildingsbuiltafter2010werelessthan30%ofthosebuiltpriorto1980(source:FEMA)

?Avoidingbuildinginhigh-riskareasisessential,andmanagedretreatmaybenecessary

Overview

.2

Intoday'sglobalbusinesslandscape,understandingthedynamicsofdisasterpreparedness,climatechangeimpactsandtheamplificationofhurricanerisksiscrucialforleadersaimingtonavigateandmitigatethesechallengeseffectively.

Thekeyquestionofthisreportiswhethermitigationeffortsareeffectiveinreducingdamageofsubsequentnaturalcatastrophes.WeanswerthisintwowaysinthecontextofhurricanedamagetobuildingsonthesoutheastcoastoftheUSA:First,usingdatafromtheUSFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA),weestablisharobuststatisticalrelationshipwhichconcludesthatFEMAspendingdecreaseshurricanedamageinsubsequentstorms;ouranalysisnormalisesforinflation-expressedin2022USdollars-,windspeedandbuildingstock.Second,wehighlightevidencefromtheNationalAssociationofHomeBuilders(NAHB)regardingtheefficacyofbuildingcodesafter1994:Betterstandardsleadtolowerdamagestobuildingsacrossthespectrumofstormsfromlowertohigherwindspeedevents.

ThiscomplementsandextendstheworkofourpreviousreportOptimisingDisasterRecovery1,whichcoveredahundredmajordisastersfromtheearlytwentiethcenturyupto2017.

Disasterpreparednessandresponse.Effectivedisasterpreparednessbeginswiththerecognitionthatcatastrophesarepossible,layingthegroundworkforstrengtheninginfrastructure,designingresilientlandscapesandconductingrigorouspre-event(evacuation)andpost-event(crisismanagementandrecovery)exercises.Ourpreviousreportonrecoveryandresiliencefromnaturaldisasters2showedastrongrelationshipbetweenincreasedinsuranc

e3

penetration,reducedrecoverytimesandimprovedeconomicresilience,highlightinginsuranceasacriticalingredientindisastermitigationandrecovery.Hereourfocusisontheeffectivenessofmitigationinvestmentandstricterstandardsin“hardening”thebuildingstockofcommunitiesagainststormdamage.

Insurancehelpssocietypreparefordisasters.Byrewardingmitigationthroughpremiumdiscounts,itincentivisesrisk-reducingactionsand,afterdisasterstrikes,itprovidesfundsforrebuilding.Ourpreviousresearchshowedthateachpercentagepointincreaseininsurancepenetration(non-lifepremiumsdividedbyacountry’sGDP)isassociatedwithareductioninrecoverytimesbyalmost12months.

InourpreviouslypublishedreportOptimisingDisasterRecovery5,weexploredoverahundredmajordisastersoccurringfromtheearlytwentiethcentury,includingeventsupto2017.Thesewerechosentoexploretheefficacyofdisasterresponsearoundtheworldandhowthischanges

2Thissectionisanexecutivesummaryandrepeatskeysectionsfromthefullreport,assuchwehavenotduplicatedcitationswhichcanbefoundinthecorrespondingsections.

3Inthecontextofthisreport,inmostplaceswherewespeakofinsurance,wearealsospeakingofreinsurance.

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overtime.Thelistofdisastereventswasfarfromexhaustivebutincludedsomeofthemostdevastatingeventsineconomicandhumanterms.Somemajoreventswereomittedbecausethedetailswerestillemerging,andwehaveincludedsomeoftheminourrecentanalysis.Sincethelastpublicationwehaveexplored51newmajordisastersandfindduringtheperiod:

?USD1.2trineconomicdamagesfromevents,witheachlossmorethanUSD1bn

?Morethan91,000fatalities

?TropicalcyclonesbeingthemostsignificanttypeofdisastercostingUSD594bn

?Wildfiresbecomingasignificantdisastertype,withlossesinexcessofUSD150bn

Climatemodellingleadsustoexpectmorefloodingatmanylocationsglobally.Consistentwiththisprediction,wehavewitnessedmajorfloodinginSouthAsiain2020costingUSD105bnandinGermanyin2021costinganestimatedUSD40bn.The2022Pakistanfloodsdevastatedcommunitiesandledtotheforcedevacuationofover20mpeople.

In2023,StormDanielwithtropicalcyclone-likecharacteristics(a“medicane”)devastatedGreece,BulgariaandTurkeywithfloodingcostingUSD21bn.GainingmoistureasittraversedtheMediterranean,DanielhitthecoastofLibya,causingmorefloodingandtheeventualfailureoftwodamsontheoutskirtsofDermacity.Some5,000deathswererecordedinLibyawithmanytensofthousandsmissing.

TheUnitedStatesfrequentlywitnessesmajorhailstorms,butrecentlyvariousrecordshavebeenbrokeninsomestates.Forexample,inMay2017baseball-sizedhailstoneswereproducedinoneofthemostdamagingstormseverinDenver.Amonthlater,Minneapoliswitnessedasimilarlymassivehailstorm.CalgaryinCanadaalsosufferedlossesfromthishazardin2020when70,000homesweredamagedbytennisball-sizedhailstones.ThecombinedcostoftheseeventswasUSD6.3bn.

Changesintheclimatehavealsolengthenedthewildfireseasoninmultipleregions,includingtheUS.Itis,therefore,nosurprisethatwesawasignificantnumberofwildfiresintheUSsinceourlastreport.InCalifornia,morethanUSD88bnofdamagesarosein2018,2020and2021.

AstringofmajorNorthAtlantichurricanesalsomadelandfallduringthistime.Forexample,HurricaneHarveyin2017madefivelandfallsintotalwithcatastrophicfloodingandcostamassiveUSD125bnindamages,whileHurricaneIanin2022generatedeconomicdamagesofUSD113bn.HurricaneBerylinJune2024brokeyetanotherclimaterecordbybeingtheearliestCategory4andCategory5hurricanetoformsincerecordsbegan,causingdevastationtotheCaribbeanandlossofpowerto100,000residentsinJamaica.Wecanseethathurricaneriskisahugedriverofextremelossesand,also,thateffortstopreparefortheserisksarevital.Forthisreason,wehavechosentofocusonhurricaneriskintheUnitedStatesinthisstudy.

Overall,morethanUSD1trofeconomicdamagesfordisastersoccurringafterourpreviousstudyrelatetoatmosphericthreatslikerain-inducedflooding,hailstormsandwindstorms.Eachoftheseisexacerbatedbyclimatechangeandwecanexpectdisastercoststoincreaseinthecomingyearsduetowarmingthatwillariseinthefutureduetopastemissions.Forthisreason,whilstitisvitaltodecarbonisetheeconomyasrapidlyaspossibletoavoidmoresignificantclimateextremesinthefuture,wewillalsoneedtoprepareourinfrastructureandoptimiseourdisasterresponse.

Impactofclimatechangeonnaturaldisasters.Climatechangeappearstobeexacerbatingthefrequencyandseverityofnaturaldisasterssuchastropicalcyclones,droughtsandfloods.3Eachdegreeincreaseinglobaltemperaturecorrelateswithheightenedrisksofextremeweatherevents,4amplifyingeconomicandhumancosts.Hurricanes,inparticular,areshowingincreasedintensitywithhigherintensificationrates.Thisisassociatedwithgreaterwindspeeds,precipitationandcoastalandinlandfloodrisks,andposessignificantchallengestovulnerablecommunitiesandbusinessesalike.

Notonlyarehurricanesintensifying;theintensificationratesareincreasing.

OptimisingDisasterResilienceCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies

Meltingglaciersandicesheets,togetherwiththeexpansionfromwarmeroceans,resultinhighersealevels.Thesesealevelincreaseshavealreadybeenassociatedwithstrongersurgesandextremefloodingincoastalareas.Theincreaseinoceantemperaturehasthreemaindifferentmechanismsthatcontributetohurricanedamage:First,additionalheatintheoceansincreasesthesealevelaswaterexpands.Second,aswaterevaporates,warmeroceansprovideadditionalairmoistureandconvectiveenergytotropicalstorms,causingstrongerprecipitationrates.Third,changesinpolewardtemperaturegradientsarelikelytoaffectjetstreams,theverticalwindshear,stormtracksandcyclogenesis.Warmeraircanwithholdmorelatentenergyandwatervapour,a7%incrementper1°Cincreaseinatmospherictemperature.26Assuch,thecombinationofincreasedairmoistureandwarmerairtemperaturesresultsinincreasedwindspeedsandprecipitationrates.Ontheotherhand,thereissomeevidencethatchangestoatmosphericglobalcirculationhavetwopotentialconsequencesonstormpatternsatregionallevels:Changestotranslationspeedand(possibly)stormstalling.Hurricaneintensificationhasbeenreflectedthroughtheincreaseinpeakwindspeedsandprecipitationrates,withexpected1-10%increaseinpeakwindspeedsand12%inglobalaverageofprecipitationratesaccordingtoa2°Cglobalwarmingscenario.Notonlyarehurricanesintensifying;theintensificationratesareincreasing.

Theproportionofhigh-intensityhurricanes(seeFigureE1)isincreasing,witha25%increasetrendobservedforbasin-widehurricanesCategories3-5inthe1979-2017period(6%perdecade

)4.

Ouranalysissuggeststhatsincethe1950s,Category4stormsandabovearedevelopingearlierinthehurricaneseason,allowingformorehigh-categorystormstodevelopwithinoneseason.

FigureE1:Mechanismsbywhichglobalwarmingaggravateshurricanedamage.CCRSanalysis

Impactofclimatechangeoninsurance.Changingglobalconditionschallengemodelandscenariodesignbyaddinguncertaintytoriskprediction,withtheriskoffallingshortbytherelianceonpastrecordsalone,failingtofactorextremeclimateeventsorbyrenderingfuturemodelscenariosobsolete.Anincreasedprevalenceofstrongerstormsmayinflatecapitalrequirementsforinsurersandhasthepotentialtoincreaseinsurancepremiumratesfortheircustomers.Becauseofglobalwarming,increasedstormintensity,theproportionofhigh-intensityandrapidlyintensifyinghurricanescouldincreasecostsforstatedisasterschemes,policyholdersandtheinsuranceindustry.Inearly2023,StateFarmandAllstatestatedtheywouldnolongeroffernewpoliciesinCaliforniadueto“rapidlygrowingcatastropheexposure”andworseningclimateconditions.InFlorida,increasedhurricanelossesandlitigationcostshavecausedsevenpropertyinsurerstogobankruptbetween2021-2022andotherstoreducetheircoverage.

4Kossinetal.2019

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Customersareconcernedabouttheimpactfromextremeweathereventsontheirhomesandhouseholdinsurancepremiums.Homeownershavenoticedrisesintheirinsurancepremiumsandcoveragerestrictionsandareseekingmoreinformationonhowtheinsuranceindustryisreactingtoextremeweatherevents.Thissuggeststhatreputationaldamagesarestartingtooccurforthesectoroverthissubject.

Customersareconcernedabouttheimpactfrom

extremeweathereventsontheirhomesand

householdinsurancepremiums.

EffectivenessofmitigationinvestmentsandactionsviewedthroughtheUSFederalEmergencyManagementAgency.ThemajorityofFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)spendingintheUnitedStatesismotivatedbyhurricaneimpactsincountiesalongthesoutheastcoast,theregionmostvulnerableandfrequentlyimpactedbyhurricanes.OuranalysisofFEMA’sspendingfrom2000-2022showsthathurricanedamagetopropertyinanycountyissignificantlyreducedforeventsthatoccurafterFEMA’sinvestmentonhazardmitigationthere:Spendingonresiliencepays.Nevertheless,FEMA’sspendingappearstobetriggeredmorebydisastrouseventsthanbypro-activepreparationorresilienceinvestments.

Approximatelyeveryadditional1USDofFEMAspendisassociatedwithanaveragesavingsofUSD16indamagesbetween2000and2022,thushighlightingthestrongreturnoninvestmentfordisastermitigation.Ouranalysisnormalisesforinflation-expressedin2022USdollars-,windspeedandbuildingstockacrosssoutheastcoastalcounties.Someofthereductioninpropertydamagebyhurricanesmay,however,beduetootherfactors,suchasimprovedbuildingstandardsinrecentdecades.

USD1FEMAspendhassavedonaverageUSD16indamages.

TheprimaryroleofFEMAhasbeenfocusedondisasterrecoveryandresponseaftertheoccurrenceofanaturaldisaster,withlessfundingandfocusontheroleofpreparedness(oradaptation)measuresbeforeadisasterstrikes.Sincetheestablishmentofthehazardandmitigationprogrammein1989,FEMAhasspentmorethanUSD13bntohelpcommunitiesimplementlong-termadaptationprojectsthatareintendedtoreducedisasterlossesandprotectlifeandpropertyfromdisasterdamages.Approximately76percentoftotaladaptationgrantfundinghasbeenallocatedforhurricane,stormandflood-relatedpreparedness.

Forthepurposesofthisstudy,thecountiesthatareconsideredhurricane-vulnerablearedeterminedbyatleastoneoftwoconditions:Either,thatthecountyisconsideredcoastalalongtheGulforthesoutheasternAtlantic;orthatthecountyreporteddamagestoNOAA-NCEIasresultingfromhurricanes.Ouranalysiscombinesdataonsocialeconomicindicatorsatthecounty-leveltakenfromtheUSCensusBureaudatabase.Thisincludesvariablessuchaspopulation,GDP,numberofhousingunitsandtheaveragehouseholdincome.Theseindicatorshavebeenwidelycitedintheliteraturewehavereviewedaskeydeterminantstohurricanedamages,andhenceareincludedasadditionalvariablestoestimatingtheimpactofFEMAhazardmitigationspendingonhurricanedamages.Otherfactorsdefiningtheintensityofahurricane,includingrainfall,stormsurgeandcentralpressure,arealsosignificantfactorsinfluencingdamages,butarenotincludedinouranalysisandcouldbeincludedinfutureresearch.Windspeedoverallisrecognisedasagoodpredictoroflossandisincludedtorepresentphysicalcausesofloss.

FigureE2showstherepresentativewindspeedexperiencedbyeachcoastalcountyfromallstormsthathititin2018.

OptimisingDisasterResilienceCambridgeCentreforRiskStudies

FigureE2:Representativewindspeedpercounty,2018.CCRSanalysisbasedonHURDAT2

TocomparehurricanedamagesandtheeffectivenessofFEMAmitigationprogrammesovertime,wenormalisedamagesusingcounty-levelsocialandeconomicindicatorstakenfromtheUSCensusBureau.FigureE3showsthatafternormalisation,2005remainsthemostdamagingyearintheUSforhurricanes,fromacumulationofhurricanesKatrina,RitaandWilma,asthreebasin-

wideCategory5hurricaneshittheUS.Thisisconsistentwithotherestimatesofnormalizedhurricanedamages

.5

FigureE3:Aggregationofnormalisedhurricanedamageatstatelevel.CCRSanalysis

5ThedatadisplayedinFigureE3isfordirecthurricanedamageaccordingtotheNOAANCEIdatasetclassification.Thisexcludesdamagefromstormsurges,coastalflooding,flashflooding,heavyrain,highwind,strongwindandthunderstormwind-whichNOAAtreatsasseparatehazards-andthereforeexplainswhysomeyears(e.g.2017)mighthavelowerlossesthanwouldbeexpectedduetodamagecategorisationunderdifferenthazards.

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Wehavecarriedoutamulti-variableregressioncomparingLogdamagestothefollowingexplanatoryvariables:

?Windspeed(10categories)

?LogPopulationdensity

?LogHousingdensity

?LogAverageincomeperhousingunit

?LogGDPpercapita

?LogFEMAspending

FigureE4showsourassessmentofFEMA’shazardandmitigationprogrammes,andthevariousprojectsthattheyfundwithinacounty.Theeffectisabovezerowherewehavedata(darkgreyindicateseithermissingFEMAdataormissinghurricanedamagedata)andshowsthatmeasurestodevelopingcommunityresilience,housingandpropertyadaptationcanmakeasignificantdifferencetoreducinghurricanedamages.WhilethereissomevariabilityintheextentoftheimpactofFEMA’sprogrammesaffectinghurricanedamagesindifferentstatesandcounties,theyallshowasignificanteffectinreducingdamagesovertime.Wenote,however,thatFEMAhazardandmitigationprogrammesshowawiderangeintheireffectivenessacrosscountiesofalltypes,includingurban,rural,coastalandinland.

FigureE4:FEMAimpactonreducedhurricanedamages.CCRSAnalysis

Casestudies:Floridahurricanes-Charley(2004),Wilma(2005),andIan(2022).

PreviousanalysishaslookedattheeffectivenessofFEMAhazardmitigationprogrammespendingacrossUSstatesandcountiesofthesoutheastthathavereportedhurricanedamagestoNOAAbetween2000to2022,withoverallfindingsdemonstratingtheefficacyofmitigationandadaptationmeasuresinreducinghurricanedamages.Inthissection,welookmorecloselyattheimpactsofthreeHurricanes-Ian(2022),WilmaandCharley(2004/5)-toexplorethechanginglevelsofresistanceandresilienceofFloridatohurricanesovertime,bothfromFEMAprogrammesandbuildingcodes,andtoexplorewiderissuessuchaslocalpoliticsandimpactstotheinsuranceindustry.

AnalysinghurricanesthathitFlorida,suchasCharley,WilmaandIan,providesvaluableinsightsintotheevolutionofdisasterresponseandresiliencestrategiesovertime.Despitethenearlytwo-de