2024年氣候適應型基礎設施投融資路徑研究報告（英文版）-經(jīng)合組織（OECD）

G20/OECDreportonapproachesforfinancingandinvestmentinclimate-resilientinfrastructure

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G20/OECDREPORTONAPPROACHESFORFINANCINGANDINVESTMENTINCLIMATE-RESILIENTINFRASTRUCTURE?OECD2024

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G20/OECDREPORTONAPPROACHESFORFINANCINGANDINVESTMENTINCLIMATE-RESILIENTINFRASTRUCTURE?OECD2024

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwasproducedbytheOECDinsupportoftheBrazilianG20Presidency.ThereportwaspreparedbyMamikoYokoi-AraiandMichaelMullanandbenefitedfrominsightsandcommentsfromNicolasPinaud,CatherineGamperandLeighWolfrom.ThisreportispartoftheOECD’shorizontalworkoninfrastructureandtheOECD’scontributionstotheInfrastructureWorkingGroupundertheBrazilianG20Presidency,coordinatedbyNicolasPinaud.

SpecialthanksareextendedtotheG20BrazilianPresidencyanddelegatesoftheG20InfrastructureWorkingGroup,forvaluablecommentsonearlieroutlinesanddraftsofthereport.ThanksarealsoextendedtoLucindaPearsonandLivGudmundsonwhohelpedpreparethefinalpublication.

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G20/OECDREPORTONAPPROACHESFORFINANCINGANDINVESTMENTINCLIMATE-RESILIENTINFRASTRUCTURE?OECD2024

Tableofcontents

Acknowledgements 3

Executivesummary 6

1Introduction 8

2Therationaleforbuildingclimate-resilientinfrastructureandinvestingintoit 11

Howinfrastructureisbeingaffectedbyclimatechange 11

Benefit-costanalysisofinvestmentintoclimate-resilienceofinfrastructure 15

3Assessingandunderstandingclimaterisks 21

4Roleofsubnationalgovernmentsandcommunityconsiderationsforclimate-

resilienceofinfrastructure 24

5Mainstreamingclimateresilienceintoinfrastructurefinance 27

Increasingtransparencyandawarenessofclimate-relatedrisksininvestmentdecisions.28

Integratingclimateresilienceintopublicfunding 33

Economicregulationofprivately-ownedinfrastructure 35

Examiningriskfinancingandrisksharingarrangementstoensureincentiveforrisk

managementandenablerapidrecovery 35

6Mobilisingadditionalfinanceforresilientinfrastructuresystems 40

Developingapipelineofinvestableprojects 40

Identifyingrelevantfundingstreams 46

References 51

Notes 62

FIGURES

Figure1.Lossesfromweather-relatedcatastrophes9

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Figure2.Benefit-costratiovaluesforfouradaptationmeasuresfortheperiod2020-2100,undera2°C

scenario16

Figure3.Subnationalgovernmentsarekeyinvestorsinclimate-resilientinfrastructure24

Figure4.Stylisedimpactofclimateresilienceonprojectcashflow28

Figure5.Someexamplesofadaptationandresiliencefinancingstack42

TABLES

Table1.Climaterisksaffectingselectedtypesofinfrastructureindifferentways12

Table2.Selectedclimatechange-inducedeventsdamaginginfrastructure13

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Executivesummary

Infrastructuredamagescausedbyextremeweatherandslowonseteventsinthelastyearsdemonstratehowinfrastructureisaffectedbyclimatechange,andareexpectedtobecomeincreasinglysevere.Enhancingclimateresilienceofinfrastructurewillbecriticalforachievingsustainabledevelopmentinachangingclimate.

Developingcountrieshaveanurgentneedtoexpandaccesstoinfrastructureservices,suchascleanwaterandelectricity,tosupportprogresstowardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)whichcanbeparticularlychallengingwhentheyarevulnerabletoclimatechange.

Meanwhile,allcountriesarefacedwiththeneedtomanagetheincreasinglysevereimpactsofclimatechangeoninfrastructure.

Proportionate,targetedmeasurestointegrateclimateresilienceacrosstheinfrastructurelifecyclecanstrengtheneconomicreturns,protectsocialservices,andreduceriskstopublicfinances.Governmentsatalllevelsshouldconsiderinvestmentsinupfrontclimateresilienceofinfrastructureassetsasitcanstrengthenthebasisofinvestmentreturns,andreapcost-benefitsforpublicinvestment.

Recommendationsinthisreportarebroadinnature,andapplicationshouldbebalancedwithinthecontextofeachcountry.Thespecificcountrycircumstanceswillaffecthoweachrecommendationisadaptedandapplied.Emerginganddevelopingcountriesinparticularmayrequirespecificconsiderationstobemadeintheapplicationoftheserecommendations.

Improvingunderstandingofandenhancingtransparencyonclimaterisks

?Actionsthatallowgovernmentsandinvestorstobetterassessandunderstandclimateriskshouldbeintegratedintoinvestmentdecisions,andfinancialstructuresthatsupportclimate-resilientinfrastructureshouldbeencouraged.

?Byunderstandingtheroleanduniquechallengesofsubnationalgovernmentsandcommunitiestoprovidelocalclimate-resilientinfrastructurethatprotectslocalbusinessesandcommunities,targetedactioncanbeadoptedtobetteraddressthespatiallydifferentiatedimpactsofclimatechange.

?Risktransfermechanismsandinsurancearrangementscanprovidebetterclimateriskassessmentandunderstandingforinfrastructureassets,andpriceclimaterisk,providingapathwayforquickerrecoveryfundsbeingmadeavailable.

?Byimprovingsustainabilityreporting,standards,labelsandtaxonomies,greatervisibilityofphysicalclimateriskcouldbeachieved,andinforminvestorsofclimateriskexposure.

Mainstreamingclimateresilienceintoinfrastructuredevelopment

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?Byleveragingfiscalallocation,andplanningandprocesses,governmentscanbetterintegrateclimateresilienceintotheirinfrastructureplanning.MechanismssuchasNationalAdaptationPlans(NAPs),EnvironmentalImpactAssessment(EIAs),procurementprocessesandPPPscouldofferopportunitiestointegrateclimateadaptationforinfrastructureprojectsdesignandplanning,andlinkbudgetaryallocation.

?MDBfundingandtechnicalassistanceplaysakeyroleinensuringthatclimateresilienceisbetterintegratedintoinfrastructureprojectsintheirborrowingcountries.TheextenttowhichMDBsandotherglobalfundsarestructuredandmadeavailabletodevelopingcountrieswillstronglyinformhowsomeofthemajorinfrastructureprojectsindevelopingcountriesareclimateresilient.

Enhancingaccesstofinance

?Governmentscanleveragefinancialinstrumentssuchasgreenandsustainabilitybondstosupportfinancingofclimateresilientinfrastructure.Inaddition,innovativefinancialinstruments,suchascatastrophe(“cat”)bonds,outcome-basedinstruments,riskguarantees,andclimateresilientdebtclausescouldprovideopportunitiesforattractinginvestment.

?Establishingblendedfinancemechanismswithclimate-orientedobjectivescanofferaneffectivemechanismtosupportthedevelopmentofclimateresilientinfrastructureindevelopingcountries.

?Publicfacilitiesforinfrastructurefinancing,suchasinfrastructure-focussedbanks,developmentbanksanddedicatedfundsthathaveclimatemandates,canprovidepathwaystoattractprivatesectorfinancingintoclimate-resilientinfrastructure.

?Governmentscanconsidertaxincentivesforinfrastructureassetsthatencouragegreaterclimateriskreductionandadaptationmeasuresbeingtaken.

?Mechanismssuchasemissiontradingcouldprovideallowancesthatcouldsecurefundingtowardsclimateresilience,aswellaslandvaluecaptureandassetrecyclingcanprovideameanstofundclimateresilienceofinfrastructureassetsusingexistinginfrastructureassets.

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1Introduction

Infrastructureiskeyforsupportingawell-functioningsociety.Ithasanessentialroleinensuringthewell-beingofpeopleandthefunctioningoftheeconomybyenablingthecirculationofpeople,goodsandinformation,providingconnectivityandkeyresourcessuchaswaterorenergy,whichsustaincriticalfunctionsforsociety.

Climate-resilientinfrastructuredescribesinfrastructurethatisplanned,designed,constructedandoperatedinawaythatanticipates,preparesforandadaptstothechangingclimate,whileitcanwithstandandrecoverrapidlyfromdisruptionscausedbychangingclimaticconditionsthroughoutitsentirelifetime.Itconcernsbothnewassets,aswellasexistingones,whichmayneedtoberetrofittedoroperateddifferentlytoaccountforclimatechangeimpacts(OECD,2018[1]).

Infrastructureiscapitalintensiveandlong-lived,withsomeassetshavingthelifetimeofdecadesorcenturies.Decisionsmadetodayaboutthelocation,designandnatureofinfrastructurehavelong-termeffects,includingwhetherinvestmentsdeliverobjectivesandanticipatedbenefitsovertheirlifetime,aswellaswhethertheymayneedtoberetrofittedinthecontextofclimatechange.

Thephysicalimpactsofclimatechangearebecomingincreasinglyvisible,asweatherpatternsdivergefromhistoricnorms(see

Box1)

.Climatechangeisexacerbatingriskstotheprovisionofinfrastructureservices,forexampleduetothefloodingoftransportlinks.Itisalsoinfluencingthedemandforinfrastructureservices.Insomeplaces,milderwintersandwarmersummers,forexample,willreduceenergydemandinwinterandincreaseinthesummer,whilerisingseaswillrequireimprovementsincoastaldefences.

Climatechangeaffectsinfrastructureassetsandtheiroperationsindiverseways,whichcanbecausedbybothslowonseteventsandimpactswhichoccurduetoextremeweatherevents,causingdamagesanddisruptionsinamatterofdaysorhours.Climatechangemakesinfrastructureassetsandoperationssubjecttoincreasinglylongdisruptions,witheverincreasingimplications.Asmostinfrastructureassetsareinterdependentwithothersystemsandarangeofsocietalandeconomicfunctionsrelyonthem,thefailureofinfrastructurecancauseawiderangeofcascadingimpacts.

However,infrastructurealsoplaysanessentialroleinbuildingmoreresilienteconomiesandsocietiesbyreducingtheirvulnerabilitytotheimpactsofclimatechange.Forexample,resilienttransportnetworkscanfacilitatereconstructionfollowingastorm.Protectiveinfrastructure,suchasfloodbarriers,canreducedamageduetoextremeevents.Whereinfrastructurecontinuestoprovideservicesdespitetheimpactsofclimatechange,thisallowscommunitiesandbusinessestocontinuefunctioningandtoabsorbshockstotheirassetsbetter.

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Box1.Economiclossesfromweather-relatedcatastrophes

DatafromSwissRe’sSigmadatabaseindicatesthatlossesfromweather-relatedcatastropheshavebeenincreasingatafasterratethanglobalGDP.Thisisconsistentwithanincreaseinweather-relatedhazards–suchasdrought,floodsandwildfires–drivenbyclimatechange.Itisalsoinfluencedbyimprovementsinreportingandincreasesinthevalueoftheassetslocatedinexposedareas.Annualaverageeconomiclossesfromweather-relatedcatastrophesweremorethan200%higherin2015-2019thantheywerein2000-2004(inconstantdollars).

Figure1.Lossesfromweather-relatedcatastrophes

Note:Thisfigureshowsreportedtotaleconomiclossesresultingfromweather-relatedcatastrophesforallcountriesbetween2000and2019(LHS,inconstant2019USDbillions)aswellasthetrendintotallossesandtrendinglobalGDP(RHS,trendlinebasedonanindexwith2000=100).

Source:OECDcalculationsbasedonlossdataprovidedbySwissResigmaandGDPdatareportedintheIMFWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase(SwissResigma,2020[2])

Thereisastrongeconomiccaseforinvestingintheclimate-resilienceofinfrastructure.Whileclimate-resiliencemeasurescanincreasethelifespanofinfrastructure,theyalsoplayanessentialroleinprotectinginvestmentreturnsandensuringbusinesscontinuity.Investmentsinclimateresiliencehaveshowntohaveanet-positiveimpactovertimethroughpreventingclimaterisksandstrengtheningthebasisofinvestmentreturns.

Investingproactivelytoachieveclimate-resilientinfrastructuresystemsiscosteffective,cansavelivesandsupportcontinuedeconomicgrowth.Forexample,onemajorstudyfoundanaverageofUSD4ofbenefitsforeveryUSD1investedinclimate-resilientinfrastructureoverthelifetimeoftheasset(Hallegate,RentschlerandRozenberg,2019[3]).AnalysisintheUnitedStatesfoundthatadaptationcouldreduceannuallossestoinfrastructurebyafactoroften(Neumannetal.,2021[4]).However,thispotentialhasyet

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tobefullyrealised.Mobilisingfinanceforclimate-resilientinfrastructure-andmakingclimateresilienceaconsiderationforallnewinfrastructureinvestments-willbecriticaltoachieveclimate-resilientinfrastructuresystems.

Theneedtoincreaseinvestmentflowsforclimate-resilientinfrastructureexistsagainstthecontextofasignificantoverallinfrastructurefinancegap,andchallengingmacroeconomicconditions.TheeconomicconsequencesofCOVID-19,andsubsequenteconomicdifficultiesandgeopoliticalissueshavecontributedtorisingpublicdebt,inflationandinterestrates(OECD,2023[5]).Thishasincreasedthecostofnewinfrastructure,inparticularcapitalexpenditure,limitedthecapacityofthepublictofinancenewinvestments,anddivertedtheattentionoftheprivatesectortootherareas.Giventhesepressures,andtheurgentneedtoenhanceresiliencetoclimatechange,itwillbeessentialtomaximisetheimpactandefficiencyofpublicinvestment,inparalleltounlockingprivateinvestment.

Thisreportexaminestherationaleforhavingclimate-resilientinfrastructureandthenthetypesofriskassessmentapproachesforclimaterisk.Regionalandlocalgovernments,andcommunityconsiderationswillalsobemadetosupportclimateresilienceofinfrastructure.Itthenturnstofinancialperspectives,lookingatthefinancialflowstowardsclimate-resilientinfrastructure,andthenaspectsthatcanleadtothemainstreamingofclimate-resilientininfrastructurefinancing.Lastly,itexploreshowtoincreaseinvestmentflowsbylookingatthefundingandfinancingofclimate-resilientinfrastructure.

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2

Therationaleforbuildingclimate-

resilientinfrastructureand

investingintoit

Greenhousegasesemittedintotheatmospheretodatehavealreadyledtoconsiderablewarmingandasaconsequenceintensifiedclimaterisks.Globalmeantemperaturesexceededpre-industriallevelsbyover1.4°Cin2023(Copernicus,2023[6]).Mostlandareasexperiencedanincreaseinthefrequencyandintensityofheavyprecipitationeventssince1950(IPCC,2021[7]).Similarly,theduration,frequencyandintensityofdroughtsincreasedinmanyregionsoftheworldsincethemiddleofthepastcentury(Spinonietal.,2014[8]).Europeexperienceditsworstdroughtin500yearsin2022(Toretietal.,2022[9]).Thedurationofthefireweatherseason(OECD,2023[10])alsoincreasedby27%globallybetween1979and2019,withnotableincreasesinwesternNorthAmerica,southernEurope,Australia,westernandcentralAsiaandmostofAfrica(Jonesetal.,2022[11])(OECD,2023[10]).Averagesealevelstodatehaverisenby21-24cmcomparedtopre-industriallevels(NOAA,2022[12]).

Thevariousinfrastructureinvestmentgapfiguresthatarecited1donotexplicitlytakeintoaccountthefinancingneededforclimateresilience(seesection

0)

.Recentestimatesonphysicalassets,energyandlandusecouldamounttoUSD9.2trillionperyearbetween2021and2050toachievenetzero(McKinsey,2022[13]).Thecostofadaptationformakingenergyandtransportationinfrastructureresiliencefordevelopingcountries(2015-2030)wereestimatedatUSD9-17billionperyearforenergy,andUSD860milliontoUSD35billionperyearfortransport(UNEP,2023[14]).

Howinfrastructureisbeingaffectedbyclimatechange

Climatechangeaffectsinfrastructureassetsandtheiroperationsindiverseways.Climatechangeimpactsoninfrastructureincludethosecausedbybothslowonsetevents,whichresultfromhazardsthatoccurandaresustainedoverlongperiodsoftime(e.g.limitedwateravailabilityduetodrought).Ortheycouldbesuddendisastersduetoextremeweatherevents(e.g.,stormsdisruptingtelecommunicationsnetworks),causingdamagesanddisruptionsinamatterofdaysorhours.Differentinfrastructuresectorsareexposedtodifferentclimatehazards,andcanresultinthedisruptionofservices

(Table1)

.Forexample,droughtsareaparticularissueforriverinetransport,whilehavinglessimpactonrail,airandroadtransport.Incontrast,hightemperaturesmayaffectroadinfrastructureathighwaysandairports,aswellasrailwaylines,whileleavingseaandrivertransportrouteslargelyunaffected(althoughworkersmaybesubstantiallyaffectedbyextremeheat).Overall,thedegreetowhichclimatechangeposesrisksforinfrastructuredependsonthetypeofclimatehazardanditsinteractionwiththevulnerabilityandexposureofinfrastructuretoit.

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Table1.Climaterisksaffectingselectedtypesofinfrastructureindifferentways

Infrastructuretype

Climatehazard

Infrastructureimpacts

Transport

Land(roads,railways)

Extremeheat

Pavementsoftening(rutting),thermalrailexpansion(buckling)

Extremeprecipitation

Washouts,floodingofroadsandrailways

Riverineflooding

Stormsurgesandsealevelrise

Inundationandde-stabilisationofcoastalroadandrailwaylines

Storms,highwinds

Blockageofroadsandrailwaysduetofallentreesandotherdamagedassets

Permafrostmelt

Bucklinganddestabilizationofroadsandrailways

Riverine

Droughts

Riverinetransportroutes(temporarily/seasonally)becomingunnavigable

Riverinefloods

Damagetoports,shipsandcargo,riverinetransportroutestemporarilybecomingunnavigable

Storms,highwinds

Marine

Sealevelriseandstormsurges

Inundationofports

Temperaturerise

ChangingdemandforportsandArticwatersbecomenavigable

Storms,highwinds

Damagetoports,shipsandcargo,certaintransportroutes(temporarily)becomingunsafe

Energy

Hydropower

Droughts

Reducedhydropowerproduction,withthepossibilityofstrandedassetsifdropsinwaterlevelspersist

Floods

Damagestohydropowerplants

Nuclear

Droughtsand/orhightemperatures

Reducedavailabilityofcoolingwater

Riverineflooding

Damagetoassets,safetyissues,pollution

Sealevelriseandstormsurges

Solar

Extremetemperatures

Reducedefficiencyofsolarpanels

Energysector

overall

Extremetemperatures

Increaseddemandforcooling,increasedpressureonthepowergrid

Sealevelrise,stormsurges

Inundationofcoastalpowerplants,transmissionanddistributionlines

Wildfires

Damagetopowerproductionassets,transmissionanddistributionlines

Riverineflooding

Disruptionofenergysupplyduetofloodingoftransmissionlinesorpowerplants

Storms,highwinds

Poweroutages,damagetopowerproductionassets,transmissionanddistributionlines

Telecommunications

Extremeheat

Overheatingofdatacentres

Riverinefloods

Floodingofdatacentres,radio/televisionstations,telecommunicationstowards,distributionlines,etc,

Sealevelriseandstormsurges

Extremeprecipitation

Storms,highwinds

Damagetotelecommunicationstowers,distributionlines

Wildfires

Burningoftransmissioncables,telecommunicationstowers

Watersupply,waste-and

stormwaterinfrastructure

Extremeheat

Increasedevapotranspirationfromreservoirs,increasedneedforwatertreatment

Extremeprecipitation

Sewageoverflows,overtoppingofdams,leveesandreservoirs,increasedneedforwaterstoragecapacity

Riverineflooding

Contaminationofwatersources,overtoppingofdams,leveesandreservoirs,increasedneedforwaterstoragecapacity

Droughts

Reducedwatersupply

Sealevelriseandstormsurges

Salinisationofwatersupply,inundationofwatertreatmentinfrastructure

Note:Whilethistablegivesanillustrationofpotentialclimatehazardsandimpactsthatcanoccurforvariousinfrastructuretypes,itdoesnotprovideanall-encompassinglistofinfrastructuretypes,climatehazardsandimpacts

Source:Basedon(OECD,2018[1])and(IISD,2021[15])

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Infrastructuredamagescausedbyextremeweathereventsinthelastyearsdemonstratehowinfrastructureisaffectedbyclimatechange.Between2000and2020,smallislanddevelopingstates(SIDS)andleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)hadanaverageof23and7naturaldisastersper1,000squarekilometres,respectively.Thistranslatestobetween10and30timesmoredisastersthanexperiencedinOECDcountries(OECD,2024[16]).InSIDS,theestimatedannualdamageofcoastalfloodingamountstoEUR1.54billionforallSIDScombined,whichincludedirectdamagetobuildings,infrastructure,andagriculture(EUJointResearchCentre,2023[17]).IntheUnitedStates,thenumberofblackoutscausedbyextremeweathereventsincreasedfrom5to20annuallyinthe1990stobetween50and100intheearly2010s(Castillo,2014[18])(Chang,2016[19]).

Table2

providesanon-exhaustiveoverviewofexamplesofinfrastructuredamagecausedbyclimatechange-inducedextremeeventsintherecentpast.

Table2.Selectedclimatechange-inducedeventsdamaginginfrastructure

Year

Typeofevent

Location

Linktoclimatechange

InfrastructureDamage

2018

Wildfire(“CampFire”)

UnitedStates

Climatechangewasfoundtohavedoubledtheextremeweatherthat

facilitatedthewildfire(Williamsetal.,2019[20])(Gossetal.,2020[21])

19,000assetsdestroyed,includinghomes,hospitals,schoolsandbusinessbuildings(Fischeretal.,

2021[22]).

2019

Storm

(“TyphoonHagibis”)

Japan

Thetyphoonwasfoundtobe67%

morelikelyduetoclimatechange(LiandOtto,2022[23])

Leveesdestructedat135locations;10trainsand120carriagesdamagedinafloodeddepot.Dueto

damagestopowerandwaterinfrastructure,22000

householdslackedpower,while133000homeswerewithoutwaterforovertwoweeks(TulaneUniversityLawSchool,2021[24])

2021

AhrValleyFloods

Germany

Climatechangeincreasedthe

intensityoftherainfallassociatedwiththefloodsby3-19%and

heightenedtheirlikelihoodby1.2to9times(Tradowskyetal.,2023[25]).

Over50bridges,600kmofrailsandthreefederal

highwaysdamagedandoutofoperationformonths.Buildings,thetransportinfrastructureandsector

sufferedaroundEUR14billionofdirectandindirectdamages(Prognos,2022[26])

2022

Drought

Europe

Thedroughtwasfoundtobe5to20timesmorelikelyduetohigh

temperaturesassociatedwithclimatechange(Schumacher,2022[27])

-30%lowerhydropowergenerationinthefirst6

monthsof2022fortheFrenchutilitycompany,EDF,resultinginanincomelossofEUR1.4billion(S&PGlobal,2022[28]).SeverefluvialtransportdisruptionsontheDanubeandRhin