隨著氣候危機(jī)的惡化變暖前景停滯不前（英文版）

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Astheclimatecrisisworsens,thewarmingoutlookstagnates

ClimateActionTracker

WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate

November2024

Summary

Despiteanescalatingclimatecrisismarkedbyunprecedentedwildfires,storms,floods,anddroughts,ourannualglobaltemperatureupdateshowsglobalwarmingprojectionsfor2100havenotimprovedsince2021,withtheaggregateeffectofcurrentpoliciessettingtheworldonapathtoward2.7°Cofwarming.Thisthree-yearstandstillunderscoresacriticaldisconnectbetweentherealityofclimatechangeandtheurgencythatgovernmentsaregivingtothepoliciesneededtoreducethegreenhousegasesemissionsdrivingglobalwarmingatarateofcloseto0.3°Cperdecade.

Mixedsignalsfromthepoliticalspacearecancellingeachotheroutandclearlyhinderingprogressinclimateaction.

Onthepositiveside,renewableenergyandelectricvehicledeploymentreportedrecord-breakingprogress:energyinvestmentsincleanenergyarenowdoublethoseforfossilfuels,particularlyoilandgas,forthefirsttime,whileinvestmentincleanmanufacturingcapacityisgrowingrapidly.

Onthenegativeside,fossilfuelsubsidiesremainatanall-timehighandfundingforfossilfuel-pro-longingprojectsquadrupledbetween2021and2022.Unsurprisingly,thismeansthatouremissionprojectionsexpectanemissionspeakbytheendofthedecade,butlackthesteepdeclinenecessaryinthatperiodtoreachtheParisAgreementgoal.

Althoughitseemslikewehavereachedastandstilloverthelastthreeyears,thetruthisthatthereisalotofactionhappening,butunfortunately,notallintherightdirection.Theexponentialgrowthofrenewableenergynowallowsafasterdeclineafter2030,despitetheincreasingemissionssofar.

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submittedandbindinglong-termtargets

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implementationofallannouncedtargetsincludingnetzerotargets,LTSsandNDCs*

tTemperaturescontinuetoriseafter2100

*If2030NDCtargetsareweakerthanprojectedemissionslevelsunderpolicies&action,weuselevelsfrompolicy&action

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Intermsoftheambitionofclimatetargets,2024hasbeenayearmarkedbyminimalprogress,withalmostnonewnationalclimatetargets(NDCs)ornetzeropledgeseventhoughgovernmentshaveagreedto(urgently)strengthentheir2030targetsandtoalignthemwiththe1.5°CgoaloftheParisAgreement.Asaresult,ourwarmingprojectionshaveactuallyincreasedslightlyunderboththe2030targetsandtheoptimisticscenarios,from2.5°Cto2.6°Candfrom1.8°Cto1.9°C,respectively.

Whilethe‘optimisticscenario’hasgraduallybecomemorereliablewithhigherlevelsoftranspar-ency,muchuncertaintyremainsonhowgovernmentsdefinetheirlonger-termnetzerotargetsandhowtheywillimplementthem.Alsonotingthattheseglobaltemperatureestimateshavea50/50chanceoflimitingwarmingtotheindicatedtemperature.So,whiletheoptimisticscenarioleadsto1.9°Cby2100,itmeansitis“l(fā)ikely”tobebelow2.0°C,butstillwellabove1.5°C.

Evenmoreominously,thecurrentpolicywarmingof2.7°isamedianestimatewitha50%chanceofbeinghigherorlower,andourknowledgeoftheclimatesystemtellsusthatthereisa33%chanceofitbeing3.0°Corhigheranda10%chanceofbeing3.6°Corhigherin2100.

TheelectionofDonaldTrumpasPresidentwouldimpacttheprojectedtemperaturelevelsthatwepresenthere,butitisuncertaintowhatextent.Itcouldadd0.04°Cofwarmingby2100toourcurrentpolicyestimateof2.7°C(assumingtherollbackofpoliciesislimitedtotheUnitedStates)toafewtenthsofadegreetoouroptimisticscenarioof1.9°C(assumingtheUSnetzerotargetispermanentlyremoved).Thiswouldbeverydamagingtotheprospectsoflimitingwarmingto1.5°C.ThemoreextensivethepolicyrollbackbeyondtheUnitedStates,thegreatertherisk.

Asgovernmentspreparetosettheirsightson2035targets,itisessentialtogobeyondincrementalimprovements.Muchstronger2030targets,combinedwithrapidpolicyimplementation,areneedednowtokeepthe1.5°Cgoalwithinreach.Failuretoalign2030targetsandactionwithstronger2035targetswouldmakethose2035targetslackcredibility,inthesamewaythatmanynetzerotargetslackcredibilitybecauseofthelackofalignmentbetweencurrentpoliciesand2030targets.

In2015,inParis,theCATestimatedthatcurrentpolicieswouldleadto3.6°CofwarmingattheendofthecenturyandsubmittedNDCsto2.7°C.Sixyearslater,by2021,thishaddroppedto2.7°Cwarmingundercurrentpoliciesand2.1°CunderNDCs.However,duetocontradictorytrends,projectionshaveremainedunchangedoverthelastthreeyears,underscoringanurgentneedtoenhancenationalandglobalclimateefforts.

Meanwhileourglobaltemperatureprojectionsremainonanupwardtrajectory,withwarmingexpectedtocontinueevenbeyond2100underallbutthemostoptimisticscenario.Weareclearlyfailingtobendthecurve.Astheworldedgesclosertothesedangerousclimatethresholds,theneedforimmediate,strongeractiontoreversethistrendbecomesevermoreurgent.

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November2024ii

WehavecometoacriticalpointandCOP29mustbeaturningpoint.

Ifcountriesfailtosubstantiallyincreasetheambitionoftheircurrent2030targetsandactionin2025,limitingpeakglobalwarmingto1.5°Cwillbeevermoredifficultandthelong-termaveragehumaninducedglobalwarmingincreasewillbreach1.5°Cintheearly2030s.Humaninducedwarmingin2023wasalready1.3°Candtheworldiswarmingatabout0.3°Cperdecadeduetogreenhousegasemissions.

Failuretoactquicklynowwouldlikelyleadtoamultidecadal,highovershootofthislimit,eveniffollowedbystrongpost2030action.Suchasituationwouldrequirelarge-scalepermanentremovalofCO2fromtheatmosphereintheorderofseveralhundredbilliontonnesofgreenhousegasemissionswithinthiscentury.

COP29mustbeanenablingCOP,deliveringconcreteoutcomestotranslatethepledgesmadelastyearintoreal-world,real-economyresults.

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November2024iii

TableofContents

Summary i

1.

Lockedin:Temperatureprojectionsstagnatedespiterisingclimatedisasters 1

2.

StalledMomentum:progressinreducingemissionsstoppedafterCOVID 4

3.

Catastrophicoutlook:temperaturekeeprisingafter2100

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4.

Stuckwithnoprogress:theglobalemissionsgapremainshuge 7

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ThebumpyroadtoNetZero:aligningNDCtargetswithlonger-termnetzerotargets 9

Countrysnapshots 11

Annex 16

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November2024iv

1

Lockedin:Temperatureprojectionsstagnatedespiterisingclimatedisasters

Aseveryregionintheworldwitnessesincreasinglysevereimpactsofclimatechange—fromrampantwildfirestodevastatingstorms,floods,andprolongeddroughts—ourlatesttemperatureupdaterevealsanalarmingstagnation.Ourglobaltemperatureprojectionsfortheendofthecenturyhaveremainedunchangedforthreeyears,highlightingacrucialdisconnectbetweenthedestructiverealityofclimateimpactsandtheimplementationofpoliciesmeanttomitigatethem.

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Figure1CATthermometerwithwarmingprojectionsfor2100.

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implementationofallannouncedtargetsincludingnetzerotargets,LTSsandNDCs*

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If2030NDCtargetsareweakerthanprojectedemissionslevelsunderpolicies&action,weuselevelsfrompolicy&action

CATwarmingprojections

Globaltemperatureincreaseby2100

November2024Update

Ouranalysisshowsnoshiftinprojectedtemperaturepathwaysunderourcurrentpoliciesscenario,withglobalwarmingontracktoreach2.7°Cbytheendofthecentury—thesamesince2021.Policydevelopmentandimplementationtakestimeandwhethergovernmentsareabletoachieve(orbeat)their2030andupcoming2035targetswilldependondecisionstakentoday.Ourwarmingestimatesshowthatcurrentpolicieslag0.1°Cbehind2030targetsscenario,and0.6°Cbehindourpledgesandtargetsscenario(whichincludescurrentnetzerotargetstoo).Withoutswift,boldaction,wearenotjustmissingthemark—wearefuellingthecrisisfurther.

Althoughitseemslikewehavereachedastandstillintermsofourwarmingoutlookoverthelastthreeyears,thetruthisthatalotofactionishappeninginthebackground,butunfortunately,notallintherightdirection.

Onthepositiveside,renewableenergyandelectricvehicledeploymentreportedrecord-breakingprogressandenergyinvestmentsincleanenergyarenowdoublethoseforfossilfuels,particularlyoilandgas,forthefirsttime,whileinvestmentincleanmanufacturingcapacityisgrowingrapidly.

Onthenegativeside,fossilfuelsubsidies

remainatrecordhighlevels

andfundingforfossilfuel-pro-longingprojects

quadrupledinasingleyear

(between2021and2022).Whilerenewableenergyisexpandingrapidly,itspositiveclimateimpactisbeingoffsetbythegrowthoffossilfuelsubsidies,whichcontinuetoanchorfossilfueluseintheglobaleconomy.

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November20241

Therapidgrowthofrenewableenergytodayallowsafasterdeclineafter2030,despiteincreasingemissionssofar(seeFigure2).Whileweestimateeachyearhigheremissionforthe2020s,ourmostrecentpathwaysshowamuchfasterdeclineafter2030,duetotheexponentialandfastergrowthofrenewables.

Thesetwoopposingtrendsarecancellingeachotheroutandclearlyhinderingprogressinclimateaction.Forthetrendinrenewablestotrulymakeadifference,theyneedtodisplacefossilfuels,notsimplycoexistwiththem.Sofar,thesetrendstranslateintoemissionsprojectionspeakingandplateauingbytheendofthedecade,butlackthesteepdeclinenecessaryinthatperiodtoreachtheParisAgreementgoal.

Twoopposingtrendsarebalancingout

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Figure2:Twoopposingtrendsarebalancingeachotherout:whilerenewablesandpolicyactionaredrivingdownemissions,thoseemissionsareatahigherlevelthanprojected.

Intermsoftheambitionofclimatetargets,2024hasbeenayearmarkedbyminimalprogress,withalmostnonewnationalclimatetargets(NDCs)nornetzeropledgeseventhoughgovernmentshaverepeatedlyagreedtostrengthentheir2030targetsandtoalignthemwithatrajectorytonetzero.Ourprojectionsforwarminghaveactuallyincreasedslightlyunderthe2030targetsscenario1:weestimatethatendofcenturywarmingwillreach2.6°C,0.1°Chigherthanlastyear’sestimates.ThechangethisyearismainlydrivenbyarevisionofourestimatesofChina’speakingtarget:althoughrecentprojectionssuggestthatChina’semissionswillpeakbefore2025,theywilldosoatahigherlevelthananticipated,drivenbyanall-timehighin2023emissions(ourlatesthistoricalyear).

Thishighlightstheimportanceofsettingabsolute,economy-wide,emissionreductiontrajectorytargetsandsetaclearandtransparentclimatetargetfor2030and2035.Peakingtargets,carbonintensitytargets,andnon-fossilenergysharetargetsthatarerelativetoeconomicgrowthorenergysystemdevelopments,couldallowcountriestomeettheirNDCcommitmentswhileincreasingemissionslevel.Countriesshouldavoidsettingflexibleandambiguoustargets,ifwewanttostaybelow1.5°C.

Ifwebroadenthescopetoalsoconsiderbinding2longtermandnetzerotargets(the‘pledgesandtargets’scenario),weestimatethesetargetswilllimitendofcenturywarmingto2.1°C,anestimateunchangedsince2021.Thisisanalarmingstagnation,atatimewhenitisclearerthaneverthatevery0.1°Cmatters.

Warmingpredictionsunderouroptimisticscenario,whichincludesthefullimplementationofnetzerotargetannouncementsalongwiththebindinglong-termtargets,havenowalsoincreasedfrom1.8°Cto1.9°C.Onceagain,majorpolicydevelopmentsarenotthedrivingfactor.Instead,thechangeisinfluencedbytherecalculationsofChina’scarbonneutralitytarget,specifically,the

1Thisscenariodoesnotincludeweak2030targets(i.e.atargetthatacountrycaneasilymeetnowbasedonitscurrentpolicyaction),insteadwetakethelevelofemissionsanticipatedunderthosepolicies.

2Weconsidertargetstobebindingiftheyhavebeenadoptedindomesticlegislationorsubmitted,withsufficientclarity,inlong-termstrategiestotheUNFCCC.Weexcludeoldersubmissionsifwedeemthatthecountryhasabandoneditstarget.SeeAnnexIfordetails.

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November20242

shaΓeofemissionsthatwillcomefΓomthefoΓestΓyandlandusesectoΓ.ChinahasexpΓesseditsplanstoexpandcaΓbonsinksbutpΓovidesnospeci?cmodellin9detailsofthesesinksoveΓtime,whichleavesthedooΓopentodi氏eΓentinteΓpΓetationsofhowChinaplanstoachieveitscaΓbonneutΓality9oal.

ItiswoΓthhi9hli9htin9thatthese9lobalwaΓmin9estimateshavea50:50chanceoflimitin9waΓmin9totheindicatedtempeΓatuΓe.So,whiletheoptimisticscenaΓioleadsto1.9。Cby2100,itmeansitis“l(fā)ikely”tobebelow2.0。C,butstillwellabove1.5。C.

WhatdoestheUSelectionresultsmeanforglobalwarming?

TheelectionofDonaldTΓumpasPΓesidentwouldimpactthepΓojectedwaΓmin9levelsthatwepΓesentheΓe,butitisunceΓtaintowhatextent.FutuΓeUSfutuΓeaΓelikelytobehi9heΓthancuΓΓentlyfoΓeseenbutwillcontinuetodecΓeaseeveninthewoΓstcasewhichwouldbetheΓepealoftheInHationReductionAct(IRA).OuΓ?ΓstoΓdeΓminimumestimateisthatemissionpΓojectionsthatwouldincludeTΓump’splanstodismantlepolicies3couldfuΓtheΓadda0.04。CofwaΓmin9by2100toouΓcuΓΓentpolicyestimateof2.7。C.

AlaΓ9eΓe氏ect(butnotonewequanti?ed)couldbethespilloveΓifotheΓcountΓiesnowslowand/oΓstopactionbecausetheUSmayleavethePaΓisA9Γeementandclimate?nancefΓomitisnotavailable.ThisdependsonwhetheΓcountΓiescontinuetopuΓsueclimateactionintheli9htofcheapΓenewablesandwhetheΓotheΓleadeΓslikeEU,China,BΓazilandotheΓsstepupandΓemainunited.

IftheUS,thewoΓld’ssecond-laΓ9estemitteΓ,weΓetopeΓmanentlywalkawayfΓomitscommitmenttoΓeachnetzeΓoemissionsby2050,ouΓoptimisticscenaΓio(cuΓΓentlyat1.9。C)couldincΓeasebyafewtenthsofade9Γee,whichwouldbemuchmoΓesi9ni?cant.Atthesametime,withcuΓΓentpoliciesbecomin9lessambitious,Γeachin9netzeΓoby2050willbecomeeveΓmoΓedi代cult.ButweaΓenottheΓeyet,atleasthalfofthecountΓy(cities,statesandpΓivatecompanies)ΓemaincommittedtoanetzeΓotaΓ9etandthatshouldΓemainthedΓivin9foΓce.

3ScenaΓiode?nedbytheimplementationoftheEneΓ9yInnovationPΓoject2025anddΓoppin9theInHationReductionAct(IRA)

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November20243

2

StalledMomentum:progressinreducingemissionsstoppedafterCOVID

Nearlyadecadeago,in2015,governmentsaroundtheworldcommittedtolimitingglobalwarmingto1.5°Candachievingnetzerogreenhousegasemissionsinthesecondhalfofthecentury.Inlinewiththeseobjectives,allcountrieshavesubmittedNDCsandlong-termtargetswhichshouldembodytheir“highestpossibleambition”.

TheoutcomesoftheGlobalStocktake(GST)in2023recognisedthatprogresshasbeenmadetowardstheParisAgreementgoals,reachingnear-universalbreadthclimateaction.However,asalsoshowninouranalysisandinFigure2,theseeffortsareinsufficient,andtheworldisnotontracktomeetthelong-termtemperaturegoalsoftheParisAgreement.

In2015,theCATestimatedthatcurrentpolicieswouldleadto3.6°Cofwarmingattheendofthecentury;withsubmittedtargets(NDCs)pointingto2.7°C.Sixyearslater,in2021,progresshadbroughtthesenumbersdown:warmingundercurrentpolicieswasprojectedat2.7°C,andthecombinedimpactof2030NDCsandlong-termtargetssuggestedapotential2.1°Coutcome.However,despiteever-starkerwarningsfromtheIPCC,collectiveambitionhasnotincreased,andtheseprojectionshaveremainedunchangedforthelastthreeyears.

WhilethatinitialprogressmarkedaclearsuccessintheyearsfollowingtheParisAgreement,momentumhasstalledsinceCOVID-19,underscoringanurgentneedtorevitaliseglobalclimateefforts.TheParisAgreement’sratcheting-upmechanism,designedtodriveever-greaterambition,isnotonlyfailingtoaccelerateactionatthepacerequiredbuthasseeminglyplateauedatacriticalmoment.

Asgovernmentspreparetosettheirsightson2035targets,itisessentialtogobeyondincrementalimprovements.Muchstronger2030targets,combinedwithrapidpolicyimplementation,areneedednowtokeepthe1.5°Cgoalwithinreach.Theclockisticking,andwithoutanimmediateshiftbacktoambitiousaction,thegainsmadesinceParisriskbecomingahigh-watermarkratherthanthefoundationfordeepercutsinemissions.

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November20244

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3

Catastrophicoutlook:temperaturekeeprisingafter2100

Globaltemperatureprojectionsremainonanupwardtrajectory,withwarmingexpectedtocontinuebeyond2100underallbutthemostoptimisticscenario.PledgesandpoliciescurrentlyinplacearenotonlynotenoughtomeettheParisAgreementgoalofkeepingglobalwarmingbelow1.5°C,buttheyalsoshowapersistentupwardtrend.Weareclearlyfailingtobendthecurve.Withoutanincreaseinpolicyambitionandimplementation,globaltemperatureswilllikelycontinueclimbing,pushingtheplanetintoincreasinglydangerousclimatethresholdswithsevere,long-termimpacts.

Astheworldedgesclosertothesedangerousclimatethresholds,theneedforimmediate,strongeractiontoreversethistrendbecomesevermoreurgent.

Countriesmustshiftintoemergencymode,increasingtheambitionoftheir2030climatetargetsandimplementingpoliciesthatcandeliveronthesecommitments.TostayontrackwiththeParisAgreement’s1.5°Cgoal,governmentsmustnotonlyreinforcetheir2030NDCsbutalsosetanambitioustargetfor2035,onethatalignswithaglobaltrajectorytowardnetzeroCO?emissionsby2050.

WehavecometoacriticalpointandCOP29isourlastchancetokeep1.5°Calive.Ifcountriesfailtosubstantiallyincreasetheambitionofcurrent2030targetsandaction,limitingpeakglobalwarmingto1.5°Cwillnotbepossibleandwouldlikelyleadtoamultidecadal,highovershootofthislimit,eveniffollowedbystrongpost2030actionandlarge-scalepermanentremovalofCO2fromtheatmosphere.

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Figure4:Temperaturepathwaysto2100.

ClimateActionTracker|WarmingProjectionsGlobalUpdate-November20246

4

Stuckwithnoprogress:theglobalemissionsgapremainshuge

Thescienceisclear:tokeepthe1.5°Climitwithinreach,globalemissionsneedtopeakbefore2025,whichisjustaroundthecorner,andbehalvedby2030comparedto2019levels.Thisreductionmustbefollowedbyasteepdownwardtrend,thereafter,reachingnetzeroCO2emissionsbyaroundmid-centuryandnetzeroGHGemissionssoonafterthat.

However,currentprojectionsindicatethatglobalemissionsunderexistingpolicieswillbenearlydoublethelevelsrequiredfor2030toadheretoa1.5°Cpathway.EventhelevelofemissionsexpectedifcountriesmeettheirNDCsandlong-termtargetswillexceednecessarylevelsin2030by70-85%,highlightingasignificantshortfallinclimateaction.

Moreover,theexistingNDCsonlymanagetonarrowthe2030gapbyamere15-20%comparedto