低生育率和人口老齡化背景下時(shí)間利用調(diào)查在人口發(fā)展中的應(yīng)用 2024

低生育率和人口老齡化背景下時(shí)間利用調(diào)查在人口發(fā)展中的應(yīng)用ApplicationofTimeUseSurveyinPopulationDevelopmentUndertheBackgroundofLowFertilityandPopulationAgeing2?PD在CP9低生育議題下相關(guān)工作?PD在CP9老齡化議題下相關(guān)工作3?????????AgeingAbriefreviewoftheNationalTransferAccounts(NTA)InitiativeinChinaAbriefintroductiontotheNationalTimeTransferAccounts(NTTA)LowFertility:GenderEqualityandGenderedEconomyPopulationAgeing:SilverEconomyPlanforFutureWorkNationalTimeTransferAcc?????聯(lián)合國(guó)人口基金在中國(guó)的工作UNFPAinChina5UNFPACHINA聯(lián)合國(guó)人口基金：聯(lián)合國(guó)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)性與生殖健康和人口事務(wù)的機(jī)構(gòu)UNFPA:TheUnitedNationsagencyforsexualandreproductivehealthandp?UNFPAprovidesreproductivehealthinformationandserfocusingondatacollection,strengtheningpopulationdataanalysisandusingdatatosupportnationalpolicyplanning.Sincethen,thecontentandwaysofcooperationhavebeenchanging?SupportingChina's1982populationcensuswasoneoftheChinasupportedtheNationalBureauofStatisticstocollecttheframeworkofthe9thcountryprogram(2021-6?第九周期國(guó)別方案在《聯(lián)合國(guó)對(duì)華可持續(xù)發(fā)展合作框架(2021-2015年)》下，與中國(guó)國(guó)家發(fā)展規(guī)劃相對(duì)接，尤其是支持實(shí)現(xiàn)《健康中國(guó)行動(dòng)（2019—2030年）》和中國(guó)《國(guó)家積極應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化中長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃》中的重要目標(biāo)。?人口基金的工作包括四個(gè)領(lǐng)域：A.性與生殖健康和權(quán)利；B.青少年和青年；C.性別平等與婦女賦權(quán)；D.人口動(dòng)態(tài)7?The9thCountryProgramisalignedwithChina'snationaldevelopmentplanundertheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentCooperationFrameworkwithChina(2021-2015),especiallysupportingtherealizationoftheimportantgoalsoftheHealthyChinaActionPlan(2019-2030)andChina'sNationalMedium-andLong-TermPlanforActivelyRespondingtoPopulationAging.?TheworkofUNFPAincludesfourareas:A.Sexualandreproductivehealthandrights;B.Adolescentsandyouth;C.Genderequalityandwomen'sempowerment;UNFPA應(yīng)對(duì)人口發(fā)展的方法與項(xiàng)目Ensuringrightsandchoicesforall：employingarights-basedlife-cycleapproach·Life-cycleandrights-base?當(dāng)前，老年人口快速增長(zhǎng)，但老年人的養(yǎng)老需求未得到完全滿足。2050年將上升到39.8%，屆時(shí)中國(guó)老年人口將達(dá)到?照護(hù)服務(wù)需求快速上升。2015年，我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)老年人自報(bào)需要照護(hù)服務(wù)的比例為11.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，比2000年的6.6%上升近9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。79歲及以下的老年人自報(bào)需要照護(hù)服務(wù)的比例從205.1%上升到2015年的11.2%，上升了6.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，80歲及以上老年人自報(bào)需要照護(hù)服務(wù)的比例從2000年的上升到2015年的41.0%，上升了將近20個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，上升幅度是79歲及以下老年人的3倍多（中國(guó)老齡科?照料者面臨較大的壓力，給就業(yè)市場(chǎng)、家庭計(jì)劃、老年福利等帶來多重挑戰(zhàn)。?老人的照護(hù)者中，女性對(duì)老年人照料的投入更多.男性對(duì)老年人照料程度較低，主要集中在“很少”（44.3%)％）％）％）24個(gè)百分點(diǎn).?女性照料者的就業(yè)-照料壓力更大。超過8成的照料者具有從業(yè)者查時(shí)點(diǎn)并未就業(yè)。其中，在未就業(yè)的照料者中?照料者多為中年人，處于更高年齡組照料者最多，占比32.7然后依次為3%).（吳帆，2017）China'spopulationstatus:populationagieng?Bytheendof2022,China'spopulationaged60andabovereached280million,accountingfor19.8%ofthetotalpopulation,ofwhich209.8millionaged65andabove.Since2000,thetrendsofageinghasaccelerated,anditisexpectedthatby2033,theproportionofthepopulationaged60andabovewillriseto30.2%ofthetotalpopulation,andby2050itwillriseto39.8%,bythetimeChina'selderlypopulationwillreach516million.Moreover,olderpersonsinhigheragesincreasefasterthanolderpersonsasawhole.?Olderpersons’needsforcareservicesarerisingrapidly.In2015,15.3%ofolderpeopleinChinareportedthattheyneedcareservices,anncreaseby1.6percentagepointsfrom13.7%in2010andnearly9percentagepointsfrom6.6%in2000.Amongolderpersonsaged79andbelow,thosewhoreportedthattheyneedcareservicesincreasedfrom5.1%in2000to11.2%in2015,anincreaseof6.1percentagepoints;whileamongolderpeopleaged80andabove,thosewhoreportedthattheyneedcareservicesincreasedfrom21.5%in2000to41.0%in2015,anincreaseofnearly20percentagepoints.(ChinaResearchCentreonAging,2021).???Womenaremoreinvolvedincargivingforolderpersons.Theproportionofwomenwhobearthemaincareresponsibility(43.1%)isnearly24percentagepointshigherthanthatofmen(19.4%).?Womencaregivershavegreateremployment-carepressure.Morethan80%ofcaregivershavedualrolesasemployeesandcaregivers,and18.1%ofcaregiverswerenotemployedatthetimeofthesurvey.Amongtheunemployedcaregivers,womenaccountedfornearly3/4ofthem.?Morecaregiversarefoundtobemiddle-agedpeople,andthoseinthehigheragegrouparealsohigh.Theaverageageofcaregiversis41.2yearsold.Amongthem,caregiversaged40-49accountforthelargestnumberat32.7%,followedbycaregiversaged30-39(28.5%),50-59(19.3%)and29yearsoldandbelow(15.4%).(WuFan,2017)1.Asystemthatallows1.Asystemthatallowspeopleto-以極低生育率為代表的人口老齡化可以被視為社會(huì)制度設(shè)計(jì)失敗的例證之一。問題在于社會(huì)制度不能適應(yīng)人口的變化！-需要全生命周期和基于權(quán)利的視角來設(shè)計(jì)政策：創(chuàng)建新的基于全生命周期的數(shù)據(jù)鏈：立足現(xiàn)有的人口調(diào)查（普查）、行政記錄和大數(shù)據(jù)，開展更科學(xué)的人口預(yù)測(cè)、更多細(xì)分視角（尤其是性別和年齡，需要突破傳統(tǒng)青年、成年和老年固定范式）的人口調(diào)查（如GGS）、時(shí)間利產(chǎn)生新的證據(jù)和新的視角：如NTA和產(chǎn)生新的證據(jù)和新的視角：如NTA和NTTA支持創(chuàng)新性的政策和方案設(shè)計(jì)，從而解決：如何通過解決夫婦、家庭和個(gè)人在子女生育、養(yǎng)育和教育方面的困難和挑戰(zhàn)？如何解決老年人，尤其是高齡老年人增多背景下照料的需求？如何實(shí)現(xiàn)人口低生育率和老齡化背景下經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展？-Populationageingdrivenbyextremelylowfertilityratescanbeseenasoneoftheexamplesofsocialsystemdesignfailures!TheproblemisthatsocialsystemscannotadapttodemographicCreateanewdatachaininlinewiththelifecycle:Basedonexistingpopulationsurveys(censuses),administrativerecordsandbigdata,conductscientificpopulationprojection,moredisaggregatedpopulationsurveys(especiallyfromageperspectivesinordertobreakthroughthetraditionalsterotypesofyouthorearlyadulthood,adulthoodandoldage)(suchasGGS),timeusesurveys,etc.,soastoformanewdatachainthatcanmoreaHowtosolvethedifficultiesandchallengesfacedbycouples,familiesHowtosolvethecareneedsoftheolderpersons,especiallyintheHowtoachievesustainableeconomicdevelopmentinthecontextoflowfertilityandpopulatiPDinChina?提供政策分析和技術(shù)支持，政府可以采取基于權(quán)利和全生?開展細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)分析和政策對(duì)話，推動(dòng)在國(guó)家戰(zhàn)略制?與有關(guān)聯(lián)合國(guó)機(jī)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)，倡導(dǎo)和支持生產(chǎn)可靠、?在應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化、人口與發(fā)展規(guī)劃、以及創(chuàng)新人口數(shù)據(jù)PDinChinaStrengtheningthecapacisensitiveandevidence-baChina'sdemographic?Providepolicyanalysisandtechnicalsupportsothatthegovernmentcanadoptarights-basedandlife-cycleapproachtostrengthenhumancapitalinvestment,promotesustainableandinclusiveeconomicgrowth,andbetterrespondtolow?Carryoutdisaggregateddataanalysisandpolicydialoguetopromotefullattentiontopromoteindividualsexualandreproductivehealthandrights,genderequalityandequitableaccesstosocial,healthandlifelongeducationservicesinnationalstrategyformulationtoaddressthechallengesoflow?CoordinatewithrelevantUNagenciestoadvocateandsupporttheproductionofreliable,accessibleanddisaggregatedpopulationdatatoaddressemergpopulationmobility,urbanization,multidimensionalpovertyandSDGmonitoring,withaparticularfocusonthoseleftbehind,?Buildnon-traditionalpartnerships(includingwiththeprivatesector)inaddressingpopulationageing,populationanddevelopmentplannin開展研究（2021~?《新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)中國(guó)出生人口變動(dòng)的影響》，中國(guó)?《生命周期視角的生育支持政策研究》，中國(guó)人口與?《從性別平等視角應(yīng)對(duì)低生育率：國(guó)際經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)中國(guó)的?《將托育服務(wù)納入基本公共服務(wù)體系》，中國(guó)人口學(xué)?《中國(guó)育齡婦女及生育狀況——事實(shí)與數(shù)據(jù)》（數(shù)據(jù)?女性賦能/性別平等視角的家庭支持政策效果評(píng)估研舉辦會(huì)議：?生命周期視角?生命周期視角的生育支持政策，2021?性別平等視角的生育支持政策，2022?時(shí)間支持?時(shí)間支持?資金補(bǔ)貼，2022?服務(wù)支持，2023?性別平等支持措施202320Research(2021~2024?TheInfluenceofCOVID-19onBirthNumbersinChina,China?ResearchonFertilitySupportPoliciesfromaLifeCyclePerspective,ChinaPopulationandDevelopmentResearchCenter(CPDRC),InstituteofPopulationResearch,Peking?RespondingtoLowFertilityfromaGendInternationalExperienceandImplicationsforChina,China?ResearchontheRelationshipbetweenChina'sPopulationFertilityRateandtheLeverageRatiooftheRes?IncludechildcareservicesintobasicChina,ChildcareDivisionoftheChinaPopulationAssociation,?Establishingfertilitysupportivepolicieswithagender?WomenofChildbearingAgeandFertilityStatusinChina-Facts?Researchontheeffectivenessassessmentoffamilysupportivepolicies/programmesfromtheperspectiveofwomen'sempowerment/genderequality(2024,inprogres?SeminaronRespondingtoLowFertilityfromaG?Fullyleveragingwomen'spowertorespondtoChina'snew?Fertilitysupportivepoliciesfromalife-cycle2021?Fertility2021supportive?Timesupport?Timesupport?Financialsubsidies,2022?Servicesupport,2023?GenderequalitysupportequalityequalitySupportiveve,equality?ChildcareServices?Childcare2023開展研究（2021~?《中國(guó)老齡化研究進(jìn)展（2002-2022）——基于“2002馬德里老齡問題國(guó)際行動(dòng)計(jì)?《中國(guó)與亞洲的銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)：發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀、機(jī)遇挑戰(zhàn)與未來展望》，中國(guó)人民大學(xué)人口?投標(biāo)中：《銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)：共同的福祉》，2024其他合作：勢(shì)，2023）：在老齡方面的合作主要包括：十四五老齡規(guī)劃，聯(lián)合舉辦虹?與阿里巴巴、麗水市合作：支持打造老年友），22MadridInternationalPlanofActiononAgeing,2002,Instit?SilverEconomyinChina?GlobalSilverEconomyReport:o?Extensivecoopeonageing,suchasthedmostimportantcooperationresultsaredrelationship,mainlytoincorporatepopula?Cooperationwithlocalgovernm?CooperationwithAlibabaandofanelderly-friendlycity(easervices,moreconvenienttaxiservicesvulnerableelderlypeople(rapidearlyscreeningforAlzheimer'sdiseApplicationoftimeusesurveysinpopulationanddevelopmentinChina:FromNationalTransferAccounts(NTA)toNationalTimeTransferAccounts(NTTA)MeasuringtheInvisibleWork國(guó)民賬戶轉(zhuǎn)移方法（NTA)助力國(guó)家應(yīng)對(duì)老齡化NTA方法是通過微觀調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，生成一套由年齡劃分的消費(fèi)和生產(chǎn)特征，它按年齡對(duì)國(guó)民賬戶進(jìn)行分類，并衡量收入盈余戶轉(zhuǎn)移方法（NTA)介紹給中國(guó)政府及學(xué)法的需求，為政府部門未來的數(shù)據(jù)收集工??聯(lián)合國(guó)人口基金駐華代表處、聯(lián)合國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)事務(wù)部2023年7月26日至8月2日在京聯(lián)合啟動(dòng)國(guó)民轉(zhuǎn)移賬戶中國(guó)研究項(xiàng)目來自中國(guó)國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì)、國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局、中國(guó)人口與發(fā)展研究中心、中國(guó)老齡科學(xué)研究中心，全國(guó)高校和研究機(jī)NationalTransferAccounts(NTA)helpsChinabetterrespondtopopulationageingTheNTAusesmicrosurveydatatogenerateasetofconsumptionandproductiondatadividedbyage.Assuch,itclassifiesnationalaccountsbyageandmeasuresthetransferofresourcesfromincomesurplus(usuallymiddle-aged)toincomedeficit(teenagers,youngerchildrenandolderpersons).TheeventintroducedtheNationalAccountTransfer(NTA)approachtotheChinesegovernmentandacademiatohelpChinabetterrespondtopopulationaging.Basedontheneedsofthenewapproach,theworkshopalsoprovidesadviceandguidfuturedatacollectionworkofgovernmentdepartments.?TheUNFPAChinaandtheUNPD(PopulationDivision)jointlylaunchedtheChinaResearchProjectonNationalTransferAccounts(NTA)inBeijingfrom?Participantsincludeabout50representativesfromtheNationalofStatistics,theChinaPopulationandDevelopmentResearchCentre,theChinaCentreforResearchonAgeing,nationalwideuniversitiesandresearchinstitutions,andtheUnitedNations?國(guó)民轉(zhuǎn)移賬戶（NTA)?NTA方法可以加入時(shí)間利?時(shí)間利用數(shù)據(jù)是NTA擴(kuò)展?聯(lián)合國(guó)人口基金駐華代表Accounts(NTA)toNationalTimeTransferAccounts?NationalTransferAccounts(NTA)isaframeworkforstudyingtheagedimensionofeconomicactivity.Itdisaggregatenationalaccountsbyageandmeasuresthetransferofresourcesfromsurplusincome(usuallymiddleage)todeficitincome(teenagers,youngchildrenandolderage).Theseflowsarisebetweenpersonsthroughtransfersbutalsowithinoneperson’slifetimethroughtheaccumulationanddispositionofassetsanddebts.?TheNTAmethodcanbeexpandedtoNationalTimeTransferAccounts(NTTA)byaddingtimeusedatatomeasurethevalueofunpaidwork.Theage-andgender-specificaccountsgeneratedprovideabasisforresearchongenerationalandgendereconomy.?TimeusedataisthedatabasisfortheexpansionofNTAintoNTTA,whichhasreceivedwidespreadattentionfromspecialists.MakingtheeconomicvalueofunpaidworkvisibleisoneofthemaindrivingforcesfortheadvancementoftheNTTAmethod.Globally,Internationallycomparableeconomicaccountsthatincludeunpaidworkarecurrentlybeingconstructed.?TheUNFPAChinaplanstocooperatewiththeDepartmentofSocialScienceandCultureoftheNationalBureauofStatisticstolaunchtheNTTAresearchprojectinChinaasearlyasthesecondhalfofthisyear.28據(jù)世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)，2022年中國(guó)15歲以上女性勞動(dòng)參與率61.08%，遠(yuǎn)高過世界平均水平；在全球GDP總量前20國(guó)家中，僅次于瑞士、澳大利亞和荷蘭。2022年，中國(guó)平均每周工作時(shí)間為47.9小時(shí)，遠(yuǎn)高于日本（36.6小時(shí)）、韓國(guó)（37.9小時(shí)）、美國(guó)（36.4小時(shí)）、荷蘭（31.3小時(shí)）。據(jù)2018年時(shí)間利用調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)，在中國(guó)，居民陪伴照料孩子生活的平均時(shí)間為36分鐘。其中，男性17分鐘，女性53分鐘。女性照料孩子的時(shí)間是男性的3.12倍。女性的無酬時(shí)間約為男性的2.6倍。29lUnderworkpressure,thedifficultyofbalancingworkandfamilyresponsibilitiesrestrainstherealizationofwomen'sdesiretohavechildren.TheprocessofgenderequalityathomeinChinalagsbehindthatinthepublicsphere.Heavyhousework,especiallythecaringofchildrenandolderAccordingtoWorldBankdata,in2022,thelabourparticipationrateofwomenover15yearsoldinChinawasthetop20countriesintheworldintermsofGDP,China’srateisonlyafterSwitzerland,AustraliaandtheNetherlands.In2022,ChiAccordingtotheNBStimeusesurveydatain2018,inChina,theaveragetimeindividualsspenttoaccompanyandcarefortheirchildrenithem,menspendabout17minutesandreportedthatwomenspent2.6timesmChinaneedsmorefrequenttimeusesurveysandNTTA:Unpaidworkandtimeusevarywithatcanprovideab300050資料來源：彭希哲，積極培育銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)//推動(dòng)實(shí)施積極應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化國(guó)家資料來源：彭希哲，積極培育銀發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)//推動(dòng)實(shí)施積極應(yīng)對(duì)人口老齡化國(guó)家31TotalconsumptionoftheTotalconsumptionofthe）?ThescaleofChina'ssilvereconomyexceeds5trillionyuanandwillexpecteasustainedrapidgrowth.AccordingtotheFudanUniversityInstituteofAging(PengXizhe,2022),theoverallscaleofChina'ssilvereconomyin2020isestimatedto5.24trillionyuan,andby2050,thetotalconsumptionscaleof?AlargepartofChina'scareworkistakencareofbyolderpersons.TheChinaFamilyDevelopmentReport2015indicatesthatamongthemaincaregiversofchildrenaged0-5indailylife,about47.6%aremothersandabout38%areg