2024人口結(jié)構(gòu)困境研究報(bào)告：老齡化社會(huì)與潛在解決方案中的社會(huì)投資機(jī)遇

Note:ThefollowingisaredactedversionoftheoriginalreportpublishedNovember19,2024[44pgs].

EQUITYRESEARCH|November19,2024|5:14PMGMT

TheDemographicDilemma

AgingpopulationsandtheSocialInvestingopportunitiesfrompotentialsolutions

Latest2024UNdatashowthatpopulationsaredecliningfasterthaninitiallyexpectedinmatureeconomiesaroundtheworldandnearly1/4oftheworld'spopulationalreadylivesincountrieswithdecliningpopulations.AresultingDemographicDilemma–ashrinkingproductivelabourpooltaskedwith

supportinganagingpopulation–hasthepotentialtoimpactmultipleSustainableDevelopmentGoalsanddriveawideropportunitysetforSocialInvesting,particularlyinverticalssuchaseducation,healthcare,humancapital,andautomation.

Inthisreport,wecoverinvestmentimplicationsoftheglobalagingtrendacrossmaturingeconomiesthatcouldelevateSocialInvestingopportunitiesvia?vepotentialresponsesfromcompaniesandgovernments–Womenomics,Education,Immigration,CapitalRelocation,Automation&AI.

BrianSinger,CFA

+1212902-8259

brian.singer@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

ShubhamJain

+1332245-7652

shubham.jain@GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

DerekR.Bingham

+1415249-7435

derek.bingham@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SharonBell

+44207552-1341sharon.bell@

GoldmanSachsInternational

EvanTylenda,CFA

+44207774-1153

evan.tylenda@

GoldmanSachsInternational

MadelineMeyer

+44207774-4593

madeline.r.meyer@GoldmanSachsInternational

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USa代liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.

Authors

EvanTylenda,CFA

+44207774-1153

evan.tylenda@

GoldmanSachsInternational

DerekR.Bingham

+1415249-7435

derek.bingham@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

YuichiroIsayama

+8134587-9806

yuichiro.isayama@

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

GeorgeK.Tong,CFA

+1415249-7421

george.tong@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RachitAggarwal

+1212934-7689

rachit.aggarwal@GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

MadelineMeyer

+44207774-4593

madeline.r.meyer@GoldmanSachsInternational

YurikoTanaka

+8134587-9964

yuriko.tanaka@

GoldmanSachsJapanCo.,Ltd.

DanielaCosta

+44207774-8354

daniela.costa@

GoldmanSachsInternational

BrendanCorbett

+1415249-7440

brendan.corbett@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

VarshaVenugopal

+1415393-7554

varsha.venugopal@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

SharonBell

+44207552-1341

sharon.bell@

GoldmanSachsInternational

ShubhamJain

+1332245-7652

shubham.jain@GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

SuhasiniVaranasi

+44207774-3722

suhasini.varanasi@

GoldmanSachsInternational

EmmaJones

+6129320-1041

emma.jones@

GoldmanSachsAustraliaPtyLtd

BrianSinger,CFA

+1212902-8259

brian.singer@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

JacquelineDu

+86212401-8948

jacqueline.du@GoldmanSachs(China)

SecuritiesCompanyLimited

MarkDelaney,CFA

+1212357-0535

mark.delaney@GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GraceChen

+44207774-5119

grace.j.chen@

GoldmanSachsInternational

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

TableofContents

TheDemographicDilemma:WhyThisMattersforSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandSocialInvesting3

TheDemographicDilemmainCharts&Numbers

8

5PotentialSolutions:Womenomics,Education,Immigration,CapitalRelocation,andAutomation&AI

12

1)WomenomicsandExpandingLabourForceParticipation

14

2)Education,Reskilling,Retention,andRecruiting

16

3)Immigration

20

4)CapitalRelocationofIndustrialActivity

23

5)TheNeedforAutomation&AI

26

DisclosureAppendix

35

19November20242

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

TheDemographicDilemma:WhyThisMattersforSustainableDevelopmentGoalsandSocialInvesting

Overthelate20thandearly21stcenturies,therapidriseinglobalpopulationscombinedwithfallingfertilityrateshas

allowedcountriestobene?tfromtheso-called‘demographicdividend,’wheretheproportionofworkingagepopulations

relativetoolderpopulationsishigh,leadingtogreaterpotentialforcountriestobene?tfromrelativelylargeproductivelabourpools.However,aspopulationscontinuetoageandfertilityratescontinuetodecline,thisisnowleadingtodeclinesinworkingagepopulationsamongstmanymaturingeconomies—drivingold-agedependencyratioshigherand

presentingaDemographicDilemma.1AccordingtothelatestUNdatafromthe2024PopulationProspectreport,the

globalpopulationisexpectedtoriseby~2bnthrough2061butisnowexpectedtopeakearlierthanpreviouslyexpected,withoneinfourpeoplealreadylivingincountrieswherepopulationshavepeaked.

Exhibit1:Thenumberofindividualsoverage65inG7countriesissettoincrease...

Actualsuntil2023andforecastsfrom2024to2050

Populationaged65+,mn

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

JapanItaly

Forecast

FranceEU

USA

Canada

UK

Germany

1990200020102020203020402050

Source:UNpopulationprospects2024

Exhibit2:...combinedwithrapidlydecliningworkingagepopulationpercentagesacrossmanyregions...

Workingpopulationsasa%oftotalpopulation,1990-2100E

Workingpopulationas%oftotalpop.

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

Forecast

JapanItaly

Germany

FranceEU

USA

Canada

ChinaIndia

UK

199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit3:...settingthestageforold-agedependencyratiostoaccelerateinthecomingyears

Old-age-dependencyratiosforG7&China,1970-2023,2024-2050E

#people65+per100workingagepeople

JapanItaly

Forecast

GermanyFrance

EU

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStatesofAmerica

China

Wtd.AvgOADR

AccelerationinYOYchangein

OADRvshistory

8

80

7

70

YOYchangeinOADR

6

50

40

30

20

10

5

Canada

60

4

3

2

1

0

0

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

1Old-AgeDependancyRatio(OADR):Numberofindividualsovertheageof65per100individualsofworkingage.Usedasanindicatorofpotentialsocialsupportrequirementsresultingfromchangesinpopulationagestructure.

19November20243

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

19November20244

Webelievecorporateand/orgovernmentresponsestotheDemographicDilemmawilldrivesigni?cantinvestmentopportunitiesforSustainableInvestors.Inourreport,wehighlight?vepotentialsolutionsthatgovernmentsand

corporatesmaypursue.

1.Womenomics:Potentialtailwindsforchildcare,womenandchildhealth.

2.Education,Reskilling:Education,staf?ngrecruiting,trainingandreskillingproviders.

3.Immigration:Remittanceproviders.

4.CapitalRelocation:Outsourced/contractmanufacturersandsolutionsproviders.

5.Automation&AI:Industrialandserviceautomation,andhumanoidrobots.

ThisDemographicDilemmawillintroducebothnewchallengesandopportunitiestosolvingtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),particularlyfocusingonGoodHealthandWellbeing(SDG3),QualityEducation(SDG4),GenderEquality(SDG5),DecentWorkandEconomicGrowth(SDG8),andReducedInequalities(SDG10).

nChallenges:Healthandwell-beingofanincreasingagingpopulation,risingsocialcoststosupportagingpopulation(SDG3),corporatemanagementofhumancapitalandattractingandretainingkeytalent,andthethreatofautomation

displacingproductiveworkers(SDG8).

nOpportunities:Providegreateropportunityforwomenandolderworkforceparticipation(SDG5),opportunitiesfor

productivelabourandlegalmigrationto?lllabourgaps(SDG10),supportre-skillingandeducationforolderandyoungerpopulationstomeetfuturejobsindemand(SDG4&8).

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

Exhibit4:SustainableDevelopmentGoalsthatcouldbeimpactedbytheimplicationsofAgingPopulationstohealthcare,labourandbroadermarkets

Source:UnitedNations,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

SDG3:GoodHealthandWellbeing:Olderpopulationshavehigherlevelsofnon-communicablediseases,whichcouldimpactgovernmentspending,healthcareprovidersandmedicines,inadditiontodrugdiscovery.

SDG4:QualityEducation:Tooffsetagingpopulationsandareductioninworking-agepopulations,demandcouldriseforchildcareforworkingparents,accesstoreskilling/vocationaltraining,andmorequicklyconnectingyoungerpopulationstorelevantskillstrainingandjobsinsectorswithlabourshortages.Accesstoeducationand?nanceisexploredmoreinourseriesonInvestingintheSDGsandourMediateam’spriorworkontheFutureofLearning.

SDG5:GenderEquality:Accesstoreproductivehealthandfamilyplanningservicescanhelpensurewomenhavethe

opportunitytoaccesseducationandtheworkforce,whereincreasedparticipationfromwomencanhelpoffsetreductionsinoverallnumbersofworking-ageindividuals.Formore,seeourStrategyteam’sworkonWomenomics.

SDG8:DecentWorkandEconomicGrowth:Innovationwillbeneededtosupportagingpopulationsandaddresslabour

shortages,andachievingfullproductiveemploymentcanhelptooffsetoveralldeclinesinworking-agepopulations.Achievingstrongeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountriescanhelpensureglobalsustainabledevelopmentandgrowth.

SDG10:ReducedInequalities:Legalmigration/mobilityofpeopleisonepotentialsolutionwediscusswhichcouldhelptoaddresslocation-speci?clabourshortagesthatarisepartiallyduetodecliningworking-agepopulations.

19November20245

Exhibit5:SDGsandsub-targetswhichwillbecomeincreasinglyimportantasdevelopedmarketpopulationsageandworking-agepopulationsdecline

4.QualityEducation

5.GenderEquality

8.DecentWorkandEconomic

Growth

10.ReducedInequalities

3.GoodHealthandWell-Being

Qualityearlychildhoodcareand

education,andfree,equitableand

qualityprimaryandsecondary

education(4.1,4.2)

Recognizeandvalueunpaidcareand

domesticworkthroughpublicservices,

infrastructureandsocialprotection

(5.4)

Sustainpercapitaeconomicgrowth,and

especially7%peryearinleastdeveloped

countries(8.1)

Incomegrowthofbottom40%of

thepopulationataratehigher

thannationalaverage(10.1)

Preventionandtreatmentofnon-communicablediseases(3.4)

Accesstoquality,technical,vocational

andtertiaryeducation(4.3)

Ensurewomen'sfullandeffective

participationandequalopportunities

forleadership(5.5)

Increaseeconomicproductivitythrough

diversification,techupgradesand

innovation(8.2)

Fiscal,wageandsocial

protectionpoliciestoachieve

greaterequality(10.4)

Universalhealthcoverage,accessto

qualityessentialhealthcareservices,

medicinesandvaccines(3.8)

Increasethenumberofyouthand

adultswithrelevantskillsforemploment

anddecentjobs(4.4)

Universalaccesstoreproductivehealthandreproductiverights(5.6)

Supportdecentjobcreation,

entrepreneurship,creativityand

innovation(8.3)

Safe,regularandresponsible

migrationandmobilityofpeople

(10.7)

Reductioninhazardouschemicalsandair,waterandsoilpollution(3.9)

Fullandproductiveemploymentand

decentgrowth;reduceproportionof

youthnotinemployment,educationor

training(8.5,8.6)

Source:UnitedNations,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

19November20246

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

19November20247

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

19November20248

TheDemographicDilemmainCharts&Numbers

Apotentialin?ectionofglobalagingpopulationsindevelopedmarketscombinedwithdecliningpercentagesofpopulationinworkingageswilldriveincreasingattentiontotherami?cationsandpotentialsolutionstothe

DemographicDilemma,inourview.Wepro?lethekeystatsandtrendsdrivingthistheme,including:

nAcceleratingold-agedependencyratios(OADRs)acrossmanyregions...AcrosstheG7+China,OADRsaresettoin?ecthigher

(Exhibit6

),whileG20countriesarealsosettoexperienceanaccelerationinold-agedependencyratios,estimatedtoriseto21.7by2030,upfrom17.5in2020,14.71in2010,and13.8in2000

(Exhibit15)

.

Old-AgeDependancyRatio

(OADR):Numberofindividuals65orolderper100individualsofworking-agepopulation

(15-64).

n...withseniorpopulationsexpectedtodoubleby2050aspopulationsage...Globally,thepopulationover65issettonearlydoublefrom808mnin2024to1.6bnby2050withEuropeandtheUSseeingthefastestgrowthamongsttheG7

(Exhibit10,

Exhibit11)

.

n...andfertilityratesrapidlyfallingbelowreplacementlevels...Morethanhalfofallcountriesarebelowthe

replacementlevelof2.1birthsperwoman,theraterequiredtokeeppopulationsizeconstantwithoutmigration

(Exhibit

8)

.

n...drivingsigni?cantdeclinesinproductiveworkingagepopulations.Matureeconomiesareexpectedtobethehardesthit,withEuropeinaparticularlydif?cultposition,expectedby2030tolose13mn(-5%from2023levels)

workingageindividualsby2030,followedbyanadditional50mndecline(-24%from2023levels)by2050

(Exhibit13)

.

nOvertime,thisaddsrisktobothexacerbatinglabourshortages,whichhavebeenontherise...LabourmarketshavebecomeincreasinglytighteracrosstheG7formanyindustries

(Exhibit16

),whilecorporatementionsoflabourshortagesremainelevatedsincethepandemic

(Exhibit19)

.

n...andstraininggovernmentbudgetsassocialspendinghascontinuedtoincrease.Socialspending(?nancial

assistance,unemployment,healthcare)asa%ofGDPhascontinuedtoriseacrosstheG7,correspondingwithagingpopulations

(Exhibit17)

.

Associetyagesandfertilityratescontinuetodecline,theUNnowexpectsworldpopulationtopeaksoonerthan

initiallyestimated.Accordingtothelatest

2024UNWorldPopulationProspects

report,globalpopulationsareexpectedtogrow~2billionthrough2060butnowpeakin~2084,earlierthanpreviousestimates(inboth2019and2010)whichexpectedpeaksbeyond2100

(Exhibit7)

.Thishasbeendrivenbydramaticallyfallingfertilityratesaroundtheworld,withcurrentglobalfertility2.25birthsperwoman,downfrom3.31in1990

(Exhibit8)

.Nearlyhalfofallcountriescurrentlyhavefertility

ratesbelowthereplacementlevelof2.1livebirthsperwoman,theraterequiredtokeeppopulationsizeconstantwithoutmigration.

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

Exhibit6:Old-age-dependencyratiosareacceleratingglobally

Old-age-dependencyratiosforG7&China,1970-2023,2024-2050E

8

80

70

60

50

40

#people65+per100workingagepeople

YOYchangeinOADR

Forecast

7

6

5

4

Japan

Italy

GermanyFrance

EU

UnitedKingdom

UnitedStatesofAmericaCanada

China

Wtd.AvgOADR

3

30

20

2

AccelerationinYOYchangeinOADRvshistory

1

10

0

0

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit7:TheUNhasmovedforwarditsexpectationforpeakglobalpopulationby16+years

Worldpopulation1950-2023andestimates2023-2100from2024,2019,2010reports

WorldPopulation(inbillion)

11.0010.009.008.007.006.005.004.003.002.00

2084aser2024

PopulationPeakin

,p

estimate

Population

peakafter

2100asper

2010&2019

est.

195019752000202520502075210020102019一2024

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:Globalfertilityratesaredecliningrapidlyandexpectedtobebelowthereplacementrateby2047

TotalFertilityRate

5.5 54.5 43.5 32.5 21.51

""?

Totalfertilityrateoflivebirthsperwoman1950-2100E

Forecast

""

1950197520002025205020752100

JapanItaly——Germany

FranceUnitedKingdomUSA

WorldReplacementRate

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Decliningpopulationgrowthratesareleadingtoaglobalagingpopulationasyoungpopulation(<19yrs)have

alreadypeakedandpopulationsoverage65aresettonearlydoublefrom808mnin2024to1.6bnby2050.AccordingtotheUN,nearly1/4ofglobalpopulationsliveincountrieswherepopulationshavealreadypeakedby2024withinmany

countriesincludingChina,Japan,GermanyandItaly

(Exhibit9)

.Asyoungpopulations<19yrshavealreadypeaked,thepopulationoverage65issettobethefastestgrowinggroup,nearlydoublingoutto2050

(Exhibit10)

.

PopulationGrowth

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-2.0%

Exhibit9:PopulationgrowthratesaredecliningformuchoftheG7

Populationgrowthratesfrom1950-2023,forecastsafter2023

Forecast

France

Germany

UnitedStatesofAmericaJapan

UnitedKingdomItaly

19501965198019952010202520402055207020852100

WorldPopulation,bn

4.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.5

0.0

Exhibit10:Bythelate2080s,therewillbemorepeopleaged65andoverthanunder-19s

Currentpopulation(bn)byagegroup,forecastsafter‘23

Forecast

1950197520002025205020752100

Age15to64-DMAge15to64-EMUnder-19sAged65&overAged80&overUnder-1s

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:UNPopulationProspects2024

Exhibit11:Numberofindividualsover65inG7countries

Actualsuntil2023andforecastsfrom2024to2100

Populationaged65+,mn

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Forecast

"".

199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100

JapanItalyGermanyFrance

EUUKUSACanada

Source:UNpopulationprospects2024

19November20249

GoldmanSachsGSSUSTAIN:TheDemographicDilemma

Working-agepopulations(15-65yrs)areexpectedtodeclineamongstallG7countries,whileimmigrationis

expectedtohelponlysomeregionsmaintainorgrowworking-agepopulationsunderUNscenarios.Europeis

perhapsthehardesthitasworking-agepopulationswithoutimmigrationareexpectedtodecline5%by2030,14%by2040,and23%by2050(froma2023baseline),followedbyJapan,theUS,Korea,Germany,andItaly

(Exhibit13)

.Immigrationisexpectedtoonlyhelpsomecountries,namelytheUS,UK,andCanada,growworking-agepopulationsundertheUN

immigrationscenario

(Exhibit14)

.

Exhibit12:Working-agepopulationsasa%oftotalpopulationdecliningacrossmanycountries

Workingpopulationsasa%oftotalpopulation,1990-2100E

Workingpopulationas%oftotalpop.

80%

75%

70%

65%

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

Forecast

JapanItaly

Germany

FranceEU

USA

Canada

ChinaIndia

UK

199020002010202020302040205020602070208020902100

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:Excludingmigration,working-agepopulationsareexpectedtodeclineinallG7+countries,withEuropethehardesthit...

Estimatedcumulativedeclineinworkingagepopulation(mn)withnomigrationfrom2023baseline

Changeinworkingagepopulation(inmillions)

from2023

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

-70

-2%

-3%

-5%

-8%

-16%

-14%

-5%

-14%

-11%

-8%

-8%-7%

-14%-11%

-5%

-2%-5%

-7%-1%

-3%-5%

-4%

-9%

-6%

-8%

-5%

-9%

203020402050

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit14:...whileimmigrationcanonlyhelpsome

countriesmanageworking-agepopulationdeclinesbasedonUNscenarios

Changeinworkingagepopulation(inmillions)

from2023

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50

-60

Estimatedcumulativechangeinworking-agepopulation(mn)includingmigrationscenariofrom2023baseline

-4%

-7%

-6%

-7%

-1%

4%

1%

2%

-4%-15%-13%

-12%

-6%

-13%

-9%

-4%

1%

1%

-7%-9%

-3%-2%

0%

4%

2%2%

-7%

203020402050

Source:UN,DatacompiledbyGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

19November202410

Agingpopulationsareexpectedtoplacefurtherconstraintsoncompaniesandcountriesasoldagedependency

ratiosrisealongsidelabourshortagesandincreasedgovernmentspendingonsocialservices.Dependencyratios(the%ofpopulationover65yrsper100peopleofworkingage15-65yrs)haveincreasedsigni?cantlyamongsttheG7andareprojectedbytheUNtomorethandoubleforChinaby2030

(Exhibit15

).Thisincreaseinthedependencyratiohasgenerallycoincidedwithariseingovernmentsocialspendingasa%ofGDP

(Exhibit17

),whichhasputastrainonfederalbudgets.

ThishasledsomegovernmentstoproposeandimplementreformslikeChina’splantograduallyincreaseretirementageforthe?rsttimesincethe1950s,orFrenchpensionreformtoincreaseretirementagefrom62to64.Thesepoliciescomewithpotentialsocietalpushbackandmayresultindelayingthegapsformingforproductivelabour.

Exhibit15:Old-age-dependencyratiosfortheG7areincreasingsigni?cantly

Dependencyratiosfromhistoricalperiodsand2030estimatesforecastsafter2023

#ofindividualsaged65orolderper100

peopleofworkingage

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2030avg.39.8

2020avg.32.6

2010avg.26.5

JapanItalyGermanyFranceEUUKUSAChinaG20n2000w2010w2020w20232030

Source:UNPopulationprospects

Exhibit16:Labourmarketshavebecometighterasjobvacanciesincrease...

Jobvacan