建筑電氣化及其驅(qū)動(dòng)的城市能源轉(zhuǎn)型路徑

1ShenzhenInstituteofBuildingResearchCo.,LtdPathwaysofBuildingElectrificationand深圳市建筑科學(xué)研究院股份有限公司ShenzhenInstituteofBuildingResearchco.,LtdNovember16,2020ProjectDescription:KeyWord:Buildingelectrification,EnergyThisreportisfundedbyEnergItdoesnotrepresenttheviewsofEnergyFoundation.1執(zhí)行摘要n建筑節(jié)能發(fā)展進(jìn)入新時(shí)期中國作為碳排放大國，積極推動(dòng)低碳事業(yè)的發(fā)展，主動(dòng)提高國家自主貢-可再生能源蓬勃發(fā)展?？稍偕娏δ茉词菍?shí)現(xiàn)化石能源替代的根本途徑，大量研究表明中國可再生能源在2050年一次能源消費(fèi)中的占比將達(dá)到因此分布式是風(fēng)光電源發(fā)展的重要形式。建筑屋頂以及可能接受到足夠電氣”多能協(xié)同模式是應(yīng)對這一挑戰(zhàn)、實(shí)現(xiàn)城市能源系統(tǒng)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的關(guān)鍵。挖掘建筑分布式蓄能和可調(diào)節(jié)負(fù)荷，提高建筑能源的靈活性正在農(nóng)用器械等的電氣化可以提高能源利用效率、減少散煤使用，對改善農(nóng)n中國建筑電氣化處于快速發(fā)展階段的指標(biāo)，人均建筑用電量增長了4倍，建筑電氣化率提高了29%。-中國建筑人均用電量距發(fā)達(dá)國家有明顯差距。中國的建筑人均用電量距但是這并不意味著中國未來的建筑人均用電量就不一就會增長到歐美國n建筑電氣化政策風(fēng)靡全球-加州推進(jìn)建筑電氣化致力于實(shí)現(xiàn)2045年碳中和的目標(biāo)。2019年伯克利-歐洲供暖電氣化以實(shí)現(xiàn)供熱和制冷領(lǐng)域減碳86%等目標(biāo)。2018年歐洲學(xué)者制定了第4版歐洲供熱路線圖（HeatRoadmapE鎮(zhèn)集中供熱區(qū)域，大型熱泵在集中供熱總熱量中的占比將達(dá)到25在集中供熱管網(wǎng)不可及的地區(qū)，高效熱泵將提供分散供暖區(qū)域的熱量的近n需求側(cè)：建筑用電量和建筑電氣化率提升-用電量的自然增長。建筑用電量與居民消費(fèi)水平強(qiáng)相關(guān)，因此隨著人們生活水平的提高，電器數(shù)量加使用強(qiáng)度均會自然增長。如果未來全國平均用電量水平向目前一線城市看齊，建筑人均用持續(xù)降低建筑供暖能耗強(qiáng)度，幾乎抵消北方地區(qū)建筑供暖面積增加導(dǎo)致-生活熱水電能替代。對于居住建筑和公建建筑的集中式生活熱水系統(tǒng)，且促進(jìn)可再生能源的利用；對于公共建筑的生活熱水系統(tǒng)，將其從蒸汽供熱系統(tǒng)中獨(dú)立出來，采用高效電熱泵作為替代熱源，具有顯著的節(jié)能-北方城鎮(zhèn)供暖電能替代。北方城鎮(zhèn)集中供熱管網(wǎng)普及，是充分利用城市內(nèi)部或周邊的熱電聯(lián)產(chǎn)和工業(yè)余熱的基礎(chǔ)。這些熱源比電熱泵等電供暖電氣化技術(shù)更加高效和經(jīng)濟(jì)，應(yīng)該作為城鎮(zhèn)集中供暖的優(yōu)選熱源。再考慮到冬季光電、水電等可再生能源量減少的問題，供暖電氣化技術(shù)主要用于補(bǔ)充供熱缺口，可以在城鎮(zhèn)集中供熱中占據(jù)一定比例，但不應(yīng)過分-北方農(nóng)村供暖電能替代。北方農(nóng)村推廣空氣源熱泵等采暖電氣化技術(shù)是替代散煤、減少大氣污染物排放的有效途徑。然而，單純“煤改電”而-炊事電能替代。一方面隨著城鎮(zhèn)居民越來越多地選擇在外用餐，炊事能耗從住宅向公建轉(zhuǎn)移，因此需要更多關(guān)注公建炊事電氣化；另一方面，居民用戶的炊事習(xí)慣改變是住宅炊事電氣化的難點(diǎn)，需要加以引導(dǎo)，同調(diào)節(jié)、可中斷特性的智能建筑用電設(shè)備，包括智能空調(diào)、智能照明、智系統(tǒng)與建筑傳統(tǒng)供配電系統(tǒng)相比具有顯著的差別，一方面是源、儲、荷的布局從分離到融合；另一方面終端建筑的用電需求也將從另外，低壓直流配電技術(shù)的應(yīng)用使建筑供配電系統(tǒng)簡單化，促進(jìn)能效提n建筑電氣化促進(jìn)低碳發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)升級-2050年建筑電氣化率超過90%，才有可能實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和或1.5度目標(biāo)?；蠛侠碓鲩L的前提下，建筑電力系統(tǒng)至少達(dá)到雙90%（即建筑電氣化率2020年分別減少了82%和83%，相比基準(zhǔn)情景分別減少了75%和77%。核心技術(shù)包括分布式光伏、分布式蓄電、建筑直流配電、柔性建筑能量管理、能源互聯(lián)網(wǎng)等技術(shù)的發(fā)展。根據(jù)直流建筑聯(lián)盟的測算，關(guān)聯(lián)產(chǎn)業(yè)n建筑電氣化的發(fā)展目標(biāo)供給指標(biāo)消費(fèi)指標(biāo)項(xiàng)目建設(shè)指標(biāo)//-近期：2020-2025年建筑用電量迅速增長、“光儲柔直”技術(shù)起步。十四五期間隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)水平提高和電能替代工作在清潔供暖、生活熱水等領(lǐng)域的持續(xù)推進(jìn)，人均建筑用電量將維持略高于十三五期間的年均增速，預(yù)集成化技術(shù)尚處于初期發(fā)展階段，主要依賴于國家制定政策推動(dòng)示范工程落地，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年采用“光儲柔直”集成化技術(shù)的建筑面積達(dá)到-中期：2025~2035年建筑用電量增長放緩、“光儲柔直”技術(shù)快速發(fā)展。生能源技術(shù)和新型建筑供配電技術(shù)將會在20-遠(yuǎn)期：2035~2050年建筑領(lǐng)域高度電氣化、“光儲柔直”技術(shù)成熟、可再n建筑電氣化的S.W.O.T.策略-SO策略-瞄準(zhǔn)新需求，解決新問題。發(fā)展高促進(jìn)城市低碳能源轉(zhuǎn)型和源網(wǎng)荷儲控一體化發(fā)展；在城市和農(nóng)村發(fā)展新型建筑電力系統(tǒng)，促進(jìn)新型城鎮(zhèn)化發(fā)展、新農(nóng)村建筑，促進(jìn)能源供給清-WO策略-利用既有創(chuàng)新政策、平臺和資金。建立示范建筑或示范區(qū)域。試行新技術(shù)和新政策，整合產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈，制定迭代標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，檢驗(yàn)技術(shù)政策的可-ST策略-推廣既有成熟技術(shù)。借鑒其他領(lǐng)域的既有技術(shù)，實(shí)現(xiàn)建筑與電網(wǎng)、交通、工業(yè)的協(xié)同發(fā)展，減小技術(shù)迭代周期，降低設(shè)備成本；推廣電熱泵技術(shù)，發(fā)揮電氣化的減排優(yōu)勢和安全優(yōu)勢，推動(dòng)高效電能替代，尤其是農(nóng)村散煤燃燒和城鎮(zhèn)燃煤鍋爐；推廣光伏技術(shù)，充分利用本地分布式可再生能源，降低用戶用能成本，甚至在可再生能源豐富的農(nóng)村為-WT策略-爭取新的創(chuàng)新政策、平臺和資金。國家根據(jù)遠(yuǎn)期低碳發(fā)展目標(biāo)做頂層規(guī)劃，明確建筑電氣化的發(fā)展路徑；對示范工程和創(chuàng)新技術(shù)給予n建筑電氣化的政策建議荷、建筑低壓直流配電等技術(shù)的“光儲直柔”-加強(qiáng)建筑電氣化機(jī)制研究。研究適應(yīng)分布式能源和儲能發(fā)展的電價(jià)機(jī)-推動(dòng)示范工程建設(shè)。設(shè)立新型電-激勵(lì)建筑電氣化的利益相關(guān)方。加強(qiáng)宣傳增強(qiáng)重要性高且影響力強(qiáng)的n建筑電氣化與電網(wǎng)、交通、工業(yè)協(xié)同發(fā)展-建筑與電網(wǎng)。建筑是城市電網(wǎng)的消費(fèi)主體，建筑電氣化提升自身用電量促進(jìn)電力消費(fèi)增長。采用“光儲柔直”供配電技術(shù)的新型建筑具有較強(qiáng)的可靠性需求。此外，建筑靈活性提升還能促進(jìn)建筑分布式能源系統(tǒng)參與城市電網(wǎng)的調(diào)峰和調(diào)頻服務(wù)，促進(jìn)消納更多可再生能全天平均停車時(shí)長高達(dá)80%，快充的必要性逐漸降低。再考慮到電動(dòng)車充電對配電變壓器負(fù)荷峰值的影響，建筑周邊充電樁的運(yùn)行模式應(yīng)以慢充為主，并且需要有序充電、雙向充放電技術(shù)的支撐。未來住宅小區(qū)和公共建筑的配電網(wǎng)與汽車充電樁需要統(tǒng)籌建設(shè)，建筑用電與交通用電的-建筑與工業(yè)。建筑電氣化依托于光伏、儲能、直流配電等建筑新型供配電技術(shù)。工業(yè)和民用建筑是城市中的兩大應(yīng)用場景。新型供配電技術(shù)會在不同場景中協(xié)同發(fā)展。例如低壓直流配電技術(shù)在建筑場景中主要用于促進(jìn)建筑光伏和儲能的應(yīng)用，增強(qiáng)建筑電力靈活性；而在工業(yè)場景中則主要用于治理電壓暫降問題，保障供電可靠性。儲能電池在汽車工業(yè)中主要關(guān)注能量密度和行駛安全；在建筑場景中則主要關(guān)注儲能經(jīng)濟(jì)性和ExecutiveSummarynNewEraforBuildingEnergySavingDevelopmenttheworldhavesignedtheParisAgreement,settintemperaturerisetowellbelow2degreesCelsiusabovepre-industriallevelsmaincarbonemissionscountry,Chiemissionsandintensifiesnareachedatitspeakby2030andachievecarbonneutralby2060thecurrentpandemicleadstoslowdownomuchattentionispaidtogreeneconomicrecovery.-Renewableenergybooming.Renewableelectricpromoteapplicationofrenewableelectricalenergyinthebuildingfield.arecharacterizedwithlowdensityandscaexposedtosufficientsolarradiationwouldbecomethebestplacestoinstallm.IthasbeenrougfsurfaceofcivilbuildingsinChinahavingasystemexceeds10billionm2consumptionandanewapproachtobu-Sustainabledevelopmentofurbanenergysystem.Highlypenetrrenewableenergiesposeseverechallengestothesafetyandreliabilityoftelectrical)shallworktogethertocopewiththechallengeandasustainabledevelopmentoftheurbanenergysystem.Itisbecomingthenewsectorofbuildingenergysavingtoexploredistributedbuildingenergystorageandadjustableloadsandtoimprovetheflexibilityofbuildingenergies,exceptenergyeffiwindfsignificantroleinimprovingthelivingconditionsoffarmers,reduceenvironmentalpollutionandpromoteruraleconomicdevelopmenRapiddevelopmentofbuildingelectrificationinChina-Trendofbuildingelectrificationelectricityconsumptionamountsto26%oftotalelectricbuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumptionelectrificationrate48%.Comelectricityconsumptionincreasesby4timesandthebuildingelectrificationraterisesby29%.FigureIBuildingPerCapitaHouseholdElectricityConsumptionandBuildingElectrification-Significantelectrificationbuildingelectricityconsumptionreaches3000kWhpercapita,morethan2inthesouthandnorth,resultelectrificationrate.FigureIIBuildingPerCapitaElectricityConsumptionandHouseholdConsumpt-GapinBuildingelectriciconsumptioncomparedwithdevelopedcountries,andtherebyagrepotentialinbuildingelectrificationgrowth.However,itdoesnotmeanththerelatednumbermayrisetothelevelofdevelopedcountries,becausetheconsidered.FigureIIIBuildingPerCapitaElectricityConsumptioninChinaandDevenBuildingElectrificationSweepsaroundtheWorldlecfthenfollowedBerkeleytotakemeasuresdemandingorstrontheformulationofsimilarlawsanelectrification.Asrequiredby2019LosAnglesSuPlan,thegoalofzeroemissionfornewbuildingsshallbereachedby2030andallexistingbuildingsshallbesubjecttozeroemissionrec2050.SanJoseaimstoachievethegoalof47%buildingelectrification.emissionreductioninheatingandcoolsupplynetworks,theheatsupcloseto50%ofthetotalheatinthatregion.ThecarboconsumptioninthefieldofheatinTWhin2050,comparedwiththatof2015.AtnDemandside:BuildingelectricityconsumptionandelectrificationrateupgradetechnologyFigureIVTechnicalApproachtoIncreasingBNaturalGrowthofElectricityConsumptionThebuildingelectricityconsumptionrelatestothehouseholdconsumptionlevel.Asthelivingconditionskeepimproving,thenumberofelectrfrequencyshallwitnessnaturalgrowth.Iftheaverageelectricityofthebuildingpercapitaelectricityconsumption,thenationwideelectricityconsumptionshallexceed4trillionkWh.buildingheating,almostoffsettingtheenergyconsumptiinbyriseinthebuildingheatielectrificationrateshallthereforeseenaturalgrowtwatersystemofresidentialbuildingsandpublicbuildings,heatlossisefficientenergysavingandpromoteThedomestichotwatersystemofpublicbuildingsshusedasaheatsourceandob-ElectrificationofSpaceHeatinginNorthUrnetworksarepopularinnorthurbanChina,whichprovideconvenienceforrecoveringthesurplusheatinsidepowerplantsandindustrialplants.Comparedwithelectricheatingtechnologiessuchastheelectricheatpump,thesurplusheatismoreefficietechnologiescanbeusedforanadditionalheatsupespeciallyinconsiderationoft-ElectrificationofSpaceHeatingitechnologiesastheair-sourceheatpumparepromotedinnorthruralareapropertiesofbuildingsshallalsobestrengthenedtoavoidincreaseinpowercostsforfarmersandthecapacityofpowergrids.Electrificationshnorthruralresidentialbuildings.attachedtocookingelectrificamoreurbanresidentschoosetoeatoutaimportanttochangethecookinghguidanceisneeded.Highly-efficientelectriccookingfacilitiesshpromoted.nSupplySide:NewBuildingPowerSupplyandDistributionTechnologiesFigureVNewBuildingPowerSupplyandDistributionTechnology-FeaturesofthenewbuildingpowersuppDistributedphotovoltaiandsmartchargingpilesComparedwiththetraditionalone,powersupplies,storagmoreinterruptibleandadjunBuildingElectrificationPromotesLow-CarbonDevelopmentandIndustryUpgradeof1.5degreeandcarbonneutral.BasedonLBNLbuildingenergyconsumptionmodel,buildingelectrificationscenarioisbuiltinthisproject.Underthereasonableincreasingtrendofbuildingenergydemands,two“90%”(buildingelectrificationrate90%andnon-fossilpowerrate90%)arerequiredtoreducethecarbonemissionofbuildingsectorThisscenariocansatisfythegoalof2degree.Asforthegoalsof1.5degreeandcarbonneutral,moreaggressivepoliciesonbuildingelectrificationandbuildingenergydemandcontrolshouldbeapplied.-Carbonemissionforemissionofbuildingsectorundertheelepeakaroundat2.1billiontonsby2030.1billiontonsCO2peryearby2050,75%oemissionunderthe2KscenarioestablishedinthePar-Atmospherepollution-UpgradeofbuildingpowersystempushesAllianceofDCBuilding,themarketscaleofaffiliatedindustrialchainscanreachRMB0.7trillionperyear.FigureVICO2emissionofbuildingsector(includingdirectemissionsinend-usFigureVIIElectricityconsumptionofbuildingsectorFigureVIIIPrimaryenergyconsumptioninend-useofbuildingsectornS.W.O.T.StrategyforBuildingElectrificationreplacementandthenewbuildingpreliabilityofthesystem;achievebuildingenergycontrolandresponsetodemand;promoteurbanlow-carbonenergytransformationandintegrati-WOstrategy-Makingfulluseofexistingpobuildingsorzones;trynewtechnologiesandpolicies;integrateindustrialchains;acceptabletothecustomer.-STstrategy-Promotingproventechnique.Integrateddevelopmentofbuildings,powergrids,trafficandindustriesallowsreducingthetechnologyiterationperiodelectrification,topushhighly-efrenewableenergiestoreducetheconsumptioncbenefitsinvillages.-WTstrategy-Maperthelong-termlow-carbondevelopmentobjective,confirmingthereplacement;promotetpreparationforthenewbuildingpowersystem.FigureIXS.W.O.T.AnalysisofBnObjectiveofBuildingElectrificationFigureXObjectiveofBuildingElectrificationUrbandistributedPVcoveragNon-fossilenergyrateofbuildingpowerReliabilityofbuildingpowersupplyBuildingpercapitaBuildingelectrificationRateofbuildingelectricityconsumptiontototalelectricityconsumptBuildingPVinstallcapaBuildingpowerstoragecapacity/BuildingareaofthebuildingsapplyingthenewBuildingPowerDistributionTechnol/2heatinganddomestichotwaterarebeingpushedforward.Thebuildingpercapitapowerconsumptionisexpectedtobeslightlyhigherthanthaveragegrowthshowedforthe13with60%ofthebuildingelectrificationrateby2025(calculatedaspercoalandNon-fossilpowersuppliesfwillsupply99%powerwhiletherestof0.X%willbesolvedbybuildings,ensuringthereliabilityofpowersupply.Threlyingonnationalpolic50millionm2;thetotalinstalledcapacitybuildings)willreach80GWandthescaleofbuildinat0.5millionkWh.boomingofnewbuildingpowersystem.Dconsumptionreaches2600kWhwith75%ofthebuildingby2035(calculatedaspercoaltechnologieswillturnouttobematureandprominentineconomicbenefit.025~2035willwitnesfrenewableenergytechnologiesdistributionsystem.Ithasbeenforecastedthat,by2035,penetratedrenewableenergiesDpushforward.Itisforecasted,by2050,thatallbuildingswillbeelectrified,andruralareasadoptingbio-mass;thebuildingpercapitapowerconsumptionreaches3400kWhwith90%ofthebuildingedeviceswillcover3.applyingsuchtechnologinSuggestiononbuildingelectrificationpolicies-Confirmthegoalofbuilinspecialplans,suchasenergies,electresponsetoclimatechange,energy-savingandemissionreduction,buildingenergysavingandgreenbui-Completetechngridfriendlybuildings,energyinternebuildingpowersupplyanddistributLVDCpowerdistributiontecshallbestudied,i.e.,theelectricprtechnologiesforbuildtechnologiesofbuildingsandurbanpowergridsandthecompensation-Promotetheconsapplyingnewelectrificationtechnologies;planandimplementhighly-distributiontechnologies;putnewpoliciesiindustrialchai