通往核能新時代的道路

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergy

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ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyAbstract

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Abstract

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyisanewreportbytheInternationalEnergyAgencythatlooksattheopportunitiesfornuclearenergytoaddressenergysecurityandclimateconcernsandatcriticalelementsneededtopursuetheseopportunities,includingpolicies,innovationandfinancing.Nuclearenergyisawell-establishedtechnologythathasprovidedelectricityandheattoconsumersforwellover50yearsbuthasfacedanumberofchallengesinrecentyears.However,nuclearenergyismakingastrongcomeback,withrisinginvestment,newtechnologyadvancesandsupportivepoliciesinover40countries.Electricitydemandisprojectedtogrowstronglyoverthenextdecades,includingfromdatacentres,furtherunderpinningtheimportanceofhavingsufficientnewsourcesofstablelow-emissionselectricity.

Despitetherisingmomentumbehindnuclearenergy,variouschallengesneedtobeovercomefornucleartoplayanimportantroleinthefutureenergylandscape.Thisreportreviewsthestatusofnuclearenergyaroundtheworldandexploresrisksrelatedtopolicies,constructionandfinancing.Itprovidesthelong-termoutlookfornuclearpowerinlightofpoliciesandambitions,quantifyingnuclearpowercapacityandtherelatedinvestmentovertheperiodto2050.Thereportshowsthatwithcontinuedinnovation,sufficientgovernmentsupportandnewbusinessmodels,smallmodularreactorscanplayapivotalroleinenablinganewerafornuclearenergy.Ithighlightspotentialmechanismstounlockfinancingwhilealsoemphasisingthecriticalimportanceofadequateplanningfortherequiredworkforceandsupplychains.

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyForeword

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Foreword

Somefouryearsago,theInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)announcedthatnuclearenergywaswellpositionedtomakeacomebackafteradifficultperiodfollowingthe2011GreatEastJapanEarthquakeandtheaccidentattheFukushimaDaiichiplant.Today,thiscomebackisclearlyunderwayandnuclearnowstandsonthecuspofanewera,owingtoacombinationofgovernmentpolicies,technologicalinnovationandprivatesectorinterest.Atthesametime,severalmajorchallengesstillneedtobeovercomeonthepathtothisnewera.

ThisnewIEAspecialreportprovidesacomprehensiveassessmentofthesituation,examininghowthesechallengescanbeovercomeincountriesthatseeitaspartoftheirfutureenergymix.Itisimportanttonote,however,thatsomecountries,includingsomeIEAMembers,donotseearolefornuclearenergyintheirfuture,andtheIEASecretariatfullyrespectstheirposition.Thisreportshouldnotbeseenasrepresentativeoftheirviews.

Globally,nuclearenergyisaleadingsourceofcleanandsecureelectricitygenerationsecondonlytohydropoweramonglow-emissionssources.In2025,nuclearissettoproducemoreelectricitythaneverbefore,aclearsignofthecomebackthattheIEAsignalledin2021.Anothersignofmomentumisthatinterestinnuclearenergytodayisatitshighestlevelssincetheoilcrisesofthe1970s,withsupportforexpandingtheuseofnuclearpowernowinplaceinmorethan40countries.Atthesametime,innovationischangingthenucleartechnologylandscapethroughthedevelopmentofsmallmodularreactors(SMR),thefirstofwhichareexpectedtostartcommercialoperationsaround2030.

Thesepositivedevelopmentsfornucleararewelltimed,astheworldismovingtowardstheAgeofElectricity,withglobalelectricitydemandforelectricitysettogrowsixtimesasfastasoverallenergydemandinthecomingdecade,drivenbytheneedtopowereverythingfromindustrialmachineryandairconditioningtoelectricvehiclesanddatacentres.Alongsiderenewabletechnologiessuchassolarandwind,whoseelectricityoutputisexpandingrapidly,nuclearcanplayanimportantroleinmeetinggrowingpowerdemandsecurelyandsustainably.

Theglobalmapofnuclearischanging.Inthe1990s,forexample,Europewasafrontrunnerinnuclearpower,butitsnuclearindustryhasshrunk.Today,halfofnuclearpowerprojectsunderconstructionareinChina,whichissettoovertakeboththeEuropeanUnionandtheUnitedStatesinnuclearcapacityby2030.Thepicturemaychangeagain,though,asnewtechnologiessuchasSMRscometomarket.Forthisreport,IEAexpertsspokewithmanyleadingSMRcompaniestogetadetailedunderstandingofwherethingsstand.Momentumisclearlybuilding

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forthetechnology,butSMRs’successwillhingeonwhethergovernmentsupport,innovationandnewbusinessmodelsenablethemtobringdowntheircostsquicklyenough.Ifthathappens,SMRscouldaccountfor10%ofallnuclearcapacitygloballyby2040.Asaninnovationleader,theUnitedStatesalonewouldaccountfor20%ofthegrowthinSMRs.

Intermsofchallenges,financingisamajorissuefornuclear.Anewerafornuclearenergywillrequirealotofinvestment,whichwon’thappenwithoutmajoreffortsfromgovernmentandindustry.Nuclearprojectshavetraditionallybeenhardtofinanceduetotheirscale,capitalintensity,longconstructionleadtimesandtechnicalcomplexity.Thishasmeantheavyinvolvementofgovernments.Butpublicfundingalonewillnotbesufficienttobuildanewerafornuclear:privatefinancingwillbeneededtoscaleupinvestments.

Thepositivenewsforthenuclearindustryisthatforthefirsttimeinalongtime,moreandmorepartsoftheprivatesectornowseenuclearasinvestiblethankstothepromiseofSMRs.MajortechnologycompaniesbuildingdatacentrescanalsotakeadvantageoftheirstrongcreditratingstofacilitatefinancingforSMRprojects.

Reducingtheriskofcostoverrunsanddelaysisaprerequisiteforexpandingfinance,bothpublicandprivate,andprotectingtheinterestsofconsumers.SMRshavethepotentialtobeagame-changerwhenitcomestofinancing.Theycandramaticallyreducetheoverallinvestmentcostsofindividualprojects.

Thisreportshowsthatgovernmentshaveauniquecapacitytoprovidethestrategicvision,thepolicies,theincentives,de-riskingmechanismsandthepublicfinancethatcanmovethenuclearsectorforward.Indoingso,theymustpaycloseattentiontoensuringrobustanddiversesupplychainsfornuclearenergy.Highlyconcentratedmarketsfornucleartechnologies,aswellasforuraniumproductionandenrichment,representariskfactorforthefuture.

Whiletakingtheserisksintoaccount,themarket,technologyandpolicyfoundationsareinplacetodayforaneweraofgrowthinnuclearenergyoverthecomingdecades.Governmentsandindustrynowneedtobuildonthesefoundationsiftheywanttomakeitareality.

Finally,IwouldliketothankmycolleaguesBrentWannerandEren?amandtheteamtheyledthatworkedextremelyhardoveralmostayeartoproducethisdata-richreport,whichIbelievewillhelpgovernmentsaroundtheworldensureamoresecureandsustainableenergyfuture.

DrFatihBirol

ExecutiveDirector

InternationalEnergyAgency

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyAcknowledgements

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Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits

ThisstudywaspreparedbytheIEA’sDirectorateofEnergyMarketsandSecurityandDirectorateofSustainability,TechnologyandOutlooks.ItwasdesignedanddirectedbyEren?am,EnergyAnalyst,CeciliaTam,HeadofEnergyInvestmentUnit,andBrentWanner,HeadofPowerSectorUnit.

TimGould,ChiefEnergyEconomist,DennisHesseling,HeadofGas,CoalandPowerMarketsDivision,andKeisukeSadamori,DirectoroftheIEAEnergyMarketsandSecurity(EMS)providedexpertguidanceandadvice.

TheleadauthorsofthereportareTanguydeBienassis,AntoineHerzog,NikolaosPapastefanakis,RyotaTaniguchiandRyoYamasaki.

Thereportalsobenefitedfromanalysis,dataandinputfromJacopoCavagna,KeithEverhart,EricFabozzi,PaulGrimal,MartinStrandHu?ek,HannaKlarandAlessioPastore.WewouldliketoalsothankAlessandroBlasi,SeniorAdvisorandHiroyasuSakaguchi,SpecialAdvisor,fortheirvaluablecommentsandinput.

Fortheireditingsupport,wethankTrevorMorgan(principal)andErinCrum(copyeditor).

TheauthorswouldalsoliketothanktheIEACommunicationandDigitalOffice,inparticular,PoeliBojorquez,AstridDumond,MerveErdil,GraceGordon,OliverJoyandJethroMullen.

ThestudybenefittedfromtheoutcomesofthediscussionsattheIEA“ConferenceonEnablingNuclearPowerinSecureandAffordableEnergyTransitions”heldinSeptember2024.

Additionalvaluableinputwasprovidedby:

Australia(DepartmentofClimateChange,Energy,theEnvironmentandWater;DepartmentofForeignAffairsandTrade),Austria(FederalMinistryforClimateAction,Environment,Energy,Mobility,InnovationandTechnology),Canada(NaturalResourcesCanada),China(InstituteofNuclearIndustryStrategy),Germany(FederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction),EuropeanCommission(DirectorateGeneralforEnergy),Finland(RadiationandNuclearSafetyAuthority),Japan(MinistryofEconomy,TradeandIndustry;MinistryofForeignAffairs),Korea(MinistryofForeignAffairs),Netherlands(Ministryof

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyAcknowledgements

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ClimatePolicyandGreenGrowth),Sweden(MinistryofClimateandEnterprise),UnitedArabEmirates(DepartmentofEnergy),UnitedStates(DepartmentofEnergy),

BankofAmericaCorporation,BNPParibas,ChubuElectricPowerCompany,C5Capital,électricitédeFrance,Enel,Fortum,Google,HSBCHoldings,INGGroup,InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency,JapanBankforInternationalCooperation,J-Power,KoreaElectricPowerCorporation,MizuhoBank,NipponExportandInvestmentInsurance,NuclearEnergyAgency,PolskieElektrownieJ?drowe,SchneiderElectric,SociétéGénérale,TerraPraxis,WorldBank,WorldEconomicForum,WorldNuclearAssociation,

MarcoBaroni,Jean-PaulBouttes,MiltCaplan,EdwardKee,JohnParsons,SimonTaylor.

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyTableofcontents

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Tableofcontents

ExecutiveSummary 8

Introduction 13

1.Statusofnuclearenergy 14

Highlights 14

Currentrolenuclearenergy of15

Nuclearenergyisthesecond-largestlow-emissionssourceelectricityworldwide of15

Nuclearhaslongbeenanimportantsourceheatinseveralcountriestoo 17of

Nuclearareoldestintheadvancedeconomies fleets19

Recentmarketdevelopments 20

TechnologicalleadershiphastowardsChinaandRussia shifted20

Nuclearpowerplantsaretakinglongertobuildintheadvancedeconomies 22

Nuclearinvestmenthasbeenrisinginrecentyears 24

Driversrenewedinterestinnuclearenergy of25

Policysupportnuclearenergyisstrengtheninginmanycountries for26

Nucleartechnologydevelopmentisacceleratingandcouldreshapenuclearmarket

leadership 30

Datacentresareemergingasanewdedicatedmarketnuclearpower for37

Opportunitiesrestartingnuclearplants for40

2.Outlookfornuclearinvestment 43

Highlights 43

Globaloutlook 44

Governmentpolicywillplayacriticalroleinthenuclearenergy 44futureof

AgrowingshareinvestmentissettogotoSMRs 47of

Regionaloutlook 48

Chinaissettoaccounttheinglobalnuclearcapacityto forbulkofthegrowth205048

Amajorincreaseininvestmentisneededinthecomingdecade 49

Cuttingconstructioncostsiskeytomakingnuclearcompetitivewithotherandfinancing

dispatchableoptions 52

Nuclearmarketleadershipcouldbacktowardsadvancedeconomies shift56

ProspectsSMRs for58

SuccessfulSMRdevelopmentcouldopenupahugemarket 58

SeveralcountriesareplanningtodeploySMRs,ledbytheUnitedStatesandChina 59

FastercostreductionscouldunlockadditionalSMRdeployment 61

Supplychainsandrequirements workforce62

Thenexteranuclearenergycallsandsupplychains offorefficientdiversified62

Planningchallengesinadvanceisnecessarytoavoidbottlenecks forworkforce66

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Ensuringtheoperationnuclearreactorsisparamount safeof66

Decommissioningandwastearekeyconsiderations 67

3.Financingnuclearprojects 69

Highlights 69

Distinctivein factorsnuclearfinancing70

Thecashnuclearplantsrequiresatailoredapproach flowprofileoftofinancing70

Constructionriskremainsa 71majorhurdletofinancing

Specialandaccidentriskisrequired 72treatmentofbackfittingoften

Thecostcapitalisparticularimportancetheviabilitynuclearofofforfinancialof

investments 74

WhoinvestsinHowis 75nuclear?itfinanced?

State-ownedenterprisesdominatethenuclearindustrytoday 76

Newreactorsaregenerallybyamixdebtandequity,whileextensionsfinancedoflifetime

are debt-financed78

Publicequityandcommercialdebtarethemainsources offinance79

Privateinstitutionsholdagenerallyfavourableviewofnuclearfinancing financial81

Unlockingmorenuclearenergy financefor83

Businessmodelstode-risknuclearinvestmentscanvarydependingoncountryprofile

and preference83

Boostingwillbecritical privatefinancing86

Greaterrelianceoncouldpushupthecostcapitalinthenearterm equityfinancingof89

MDBscouldnuclearenergy,butonlyonasmallscale helpwithfinancing91

Greenbondsandtransitioninstrumentsareexpanding finance93

SMRscouldopenthedoortogreaterprivatesectorparticipation 95

Abbreviationsandacronyms 97

ThePathtoaNewEraforNuclearEnergyExecutivesummary

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ExecutiveSummary

Multiplesignspointtowardsanewerafornuclearpower

Themarket,technologyandpolicyfoundationsareinplaceforaneweraofgrowthinnuclearenergyoverthecomingdecades.Demandforelectricityisrisingfast,notonlyforconventionalusessuchaslightindustryorairconditioning,butalsoinnewareassuchaselectricvehicles,datacentresandartificialintelligence.ElectricityusehasincreasedattwicetherateoftotalenergydemandoverthepastdecadeandissettoextendthisleadastheworldentersanewAgeofElectricity.Nuclearisacleananddispatchablesourceofelectricityandheatthatcanbedeployedatscalewithround-the-clockavailability.Itbringsprovenenergysecuritybenefitstoelectricitymarketsaswellasreductionsinemissions,complementingrenewableenergy.Interestinnuclearenergyisatitshighestlevelsincetheoilcrisesinthe1970s:supportforexpandingtheuseofnuclearpowerisnowinplaceinmorethan40countries.Moreover,innovationischangingthenucleartechnologylandscape,includingmanysmallmodularreactor(SMR)designsunderdevelopment;thefirstcommercialSMRprojectsaresettostartoperationaround2030.

Nucleargenerationissettohitanall-timehighin2025

Generationfromtheworld’sfleetofnearly420reactorsisontracktoreachnewheightsin2025.Evenasafewcountriesphaseoutnuclearpowerorretireplantsearly,globalgenerationfromnuclearplantsisrisingasJapanrestartsproduction,maintenanceworksarecompletedinFrance,andnewreactorsbegincommercialoperationsinvariousmarkets,includingChina,India,KoreaandEurope.Nuclearpowerproducesjustunder10%ofglobalgenerationandisthesecond-largestsourceoflow-emissionselectricitytodayafterhydropower.

Some63nuclearreactorsarecurrentlyunderconstruction,representingmorethan70gigawatts(GW)ofcapacity,oneofthehighestlevelsseensince1990.Inaddition,overthelastfiveyears,decisionshavebeentakentoextendtheoperatinglifetimesofover60reactorsworldwide,coveringalmost15%ofthetotalnuclearfleet.Anewmulti-countryinitiativewaslaunchedthataimstotripleglobalnuclearcapacityby2050,recognisingtheroleofnuclearenergyinreachingenergysecurityandclimategoals,complementingtheleadingroleplayedbyrenewables.Annualinvestmentinnuclear–encompassingbothnewplantsandlifetimeextensionsofexistingones–hasincreasedbyalmost50%inthethreeyearssince2020,exceedingUSD60billion.

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However,themomentumbehindnuclearisunbalanced

Forthemoment,therenewedmomentumbehindnuclearpowerisheavilyreliantonChineseandRussiantechnologies.Ofthe52reactorsthathavestartedconstructionworldwidesince2017,25ofthemareofChinesedesignand

23ofthemofRussiandesign.Highlyconcentratedmarketsfornucleartechnologies,aswellasforuraniumproductionandenrichment,representariskfactorforthefutureandunderscoretheneedforgreaterdiversityinsupplychains.

Ashiftinmarketleadershipisunderway:halfoftheprojectsthatareunderconstructiontodayareinChina,whichisoncoursetoovertakeboththeUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnionininstallednuclearpowercapacityby

2030.Advancedeconomiesarestillhometomostoftheworld’snuclearfleet,butthesereactorsarerelativelyold;theiraverageageismorethan36years,twicetheaverageelsewhere.Rejuvenatingthisfleethasnotbeeneasy:thenuclearindustryinlong-timemarketleaders,suchastheUnitedStatesandFrance,hasstruggledinrecentyearswithprojectdelaysandcostoverrunsforallnewlarge-scalereactors.

Abrighteroutlookfornuclearpowercanbeunlocked,asregionaloutcomesvarywidelyinascenariobasedontoday’spolicysettingsandmarketdynamics.Inadvancedeconomies,theriseinSMRsandnewconstructionoflarge-scalereactorsonlyjustoffsettheeffectsofanageingfleet,meaningthatcapacityisslightlyhigherin2050thantoday.IntheEuropeanUnion,theshareofnuclearpowerintheelectricitymixpeakedat34%inthe1990sbuthasalreadyfallento23%todayandcontinuestofallsteadilyinthisscenario.Bycontrast,inChina,installedcapacitymorethantriplestomid-century,anditalsodoublesinotheremerginganddevelopingeconomies.

Smallmodularreactorscanbethecatalystforchange

Cost-competitiveSMRs,boostedbygovernmentsupportandnewbusinessmodels,canhelpclearthepathtoanewerafornuclearenergy.Demandforfirm,dispatchableandcleanpowerfromtheprivatesectorisamajordriverofinterestintheseemergingtechnologies,andthereareplansofvaryingmaturityforupto25GWofSMRcapacity,inlargeparttomeetgrowingelectricitydemandfordatacentres.Undertoday’spolicysettings,totalSMRcapacityreaches40GWby2050,butthepotentialisfargreater.InascenarioinwhichtailoredpolicysupportfornuclearandstreamlinedregulationsforSMRsalignwithrobustindustrydeliveryonnewprojectsanddesigns,SMRcapacityisthreetimeshigherbymid-century,reaching120GW,withmorethanonethousandSMRsinoperationbythen.ThisrapidgrowthscenariowouldraiserequiredinvestmentinSMRsfromlessthanUSD5billiontodaytoUSD25billionbytheendofthisdecade,withcumulativeinvestmentofUSD670billionby2050.

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IfconstructioncostsforSMRsarebroughtdownoverthenext15yearstoparitywithlarge-scalereactorsbuiltonbudget,thiscouldseethecost-effectiveuptakeofSMRsincreasebyafurther60%,withdeploymentreaching190GWby2050.Thistrajectoryforcostreductions–toUSD2500/kWofcapacityinChinaandUSD4500/kWintheUnitedStatesandEuropeby2040

–isfasterthanwehaveinourmainscenariosbutlessambitiousthanthecostlevelsbeingtargetedbytoday’sSMRprojectdevelopers.CumulativeglobalinvestmentinSMRsinthiscasetotalsUSD900billionto2050.

Diversifyingtechnologyleadershipandsupplychains

TheriseofSMRs,alongsideanewwaveoflarge-scalereactorsbuiltontimeandonbudget,canopenthepossibilityforEurope,theUnitedStatesandJapantoreclaimtechnologyleadership.Inarapidgrowthscenario,nuclearcapacityinadvancedeconomiesgrowsbyover40%to2050,helpingtomeetenergysecurityandemissionsgoals.Theshareoflarge-scalenuclearconstructionstartsusingdesignsfromadvancedeconomiesrisesfromlessthan10%inrecentyearsto40%by2030andover50%thereafter,spurredbynewprojectsinEurope,theUnitedStates,JapanandKorea.ThewidespreaddeploymentofSMRsreinforcesthistrend,withoverhalfofnewconstructionstartsto2050usingdesignsfromtheUnitedStatesorEurope.Amorecompetitiveanddiversemarketbringsbroadbenefitsforcountriesseekingtostepupdeploymentofnucleartechnologies.

Greaterdiversityofuraniumsupplyandenrichmentservicesisessentialforasecureandaffordableexpansionofthenuclearsector.Uraniumproductionishighlyconcentratedinfourcountries,whichjointlyaccountformorethanthree-quartersofglobaluraniumproductionfrommines.Enrichmentcapacityisalsohighlyconcentrated,withmorethan99%oftheenrichmentcapacityinfoursuppliers,withRussiaaccountingfor40%ofglobalenrichmentcapacity.Thisareaneedstobegivenmuchgreaterattention,particularlyforcountriesthatimportenricheduranium.

Mobilisingnewsourcesoffinance

Arapidgrowthscenariorequiresamajorexpansioninannualinvestment,whichdoublestoUSD120billionalreadyby2030.Nuclearprojectshavetraditionallybeenhardtofinanceduetotheirscale,capitalintensity,longconstructionleadtimes,technicalcomplexityandriskliabilityinsomecountries.Thishasmeantheavyinvolvementofgovernments,andtypicallyamajorroleforstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs)asownersandoperatorsofnuclearplants.SOEscanoftenobtainlargeamountsoffinancingatrelativelycompetitiverates,closetothoseofsovereignentities.

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Publicfundingalonewillnotbesufficienttobuildanewerafornuclear:privatefinancingwillbeneededtoscaleupinvestments.However,thelongtimelinesforpermittingandconstructionmakenuclearatoughpropositionforcommerciallenders,astheycanpushthebreakevenpointforanewlargereactorto20-30yearsaftertheprojectstart.Thesefactorsalsolimittheuseofprojectfinancestructures,whichareoftenusedtosupportotherlargeinfrastructureprojects.

Ensuringbettervisibilityontimelinesandcashflows

Reducingtheriskofcostoverrunsanddelaysisaprerequisiteforexpandingfinance,bothpublicandprivate,andprotectingtheinterestsofconsumers.Thisrequiresamultifacetedapproach.Adoptingwell-establishedreactordesignsandthenbuildingtheminseriescangreatlyhelptobuildupcapacity,supplychains,andastrongandskilledworkforce.Standardisationallowsforastreamlinedconstructionprocess,reducingthetimeandcostassociatedwithbuildingeachreactor,andloweringcostsovertimethroughlearning.

Thepredictabilityoffuturecashflowsiskeytobringdownfinancingcostsandattractprivatecapitaltothenuclearsector.Financialinstitutionslendbasedonreliablefuturecashflowexpectations,soasupportiveregulatoryframeworkthatincreasesvisibility,includinglimitingliabilities,inthisareaiscrucialfordebtfinancing.Inmarketswithvolatileprices,de-riskinginstrumentssuchaslong-termpowerpurchaseagreements,contractsfor