2025年全球電力評(píng)論報(bào)告（英文版）-EMBER

GlobalElectricityElectricityReview2025RecordrenewablesgrowthledbysolarhelpedRecordrenewablesgrowthledbysolarhelpedpushcleanpowerpast40%ofglobalelectricityin2024,butheatwave-relateddemandspikesledtoasmallincreaseinfossilgeneration. 8April2025 Leadauthors:EuanGrahamandNicolasFulghum Otherauthors:KatyeAltieriAboutEmber’ssixthannualGlobalElectricityReviewprovidesthefirstcomprehensiveoverviewofchangesinglobalelectricitygenerationin2024,basedonreporteddata.Itpresentsthetrendsunderlyingthem,andthelikelyimplicationsforenergysourcesandpowersectoremissionsinthenearfuture.Withthereport,Emberisalsoreleasingthefirstcomprehensive,freedatasetofglobalelectricitygenerationin2024.Thereportanalyseselectricitydatafrom215countries,includingthelatest2024datafor88countriesrepresenting93%ofglobalelectricitydemand,aswellasestimatesfor2024forallothercountries.Theanalysisalsoincludesdatafor13geographicandeconomicgroupings,includingAfrica,Asia,theEUandtheG7.Italsodivesdeeperintothesevencountriesandregionswiththehighestelectricitydemand,whichaccountfor72%ofglobalelectricitydemand.Inadditiontoelectricitygenerationdata,thereportusesweatherandcapacitydatatouncovertheunderlyingtrendsshapingtheglobalpowersector.Wemakeallofthedatafreelyaccessibletoempowerotherstodotheirownanalysisandhelpspeeduptheswitchtocleanelectricity.Highlights40.9%Shareofglobalelectricitygenerationfromlow-carbonsourcesin2024.+29%Growthrateofsolargenerationin2024,asix-yearhigh.+4.0%Electricitydemandgrowthin2024,whichwasamplifiedbyheatwaves.EMB三R2EMB三R3ContentsExecutivesummary5Chapter1:2024inreview9Recordriseinrenewables,ledbysolar,bringscleanpowertoanewmilestone9Hottertemperaturesamplifyhighelectricitydemandgrowth14Heatwavesdriveasmallincreaseinfossiluse16Chapter2:TheBigPicture192.1Solarissurging–flexibilitycantakeittothenextlevel21Solarpowerhasbecometheengineoftheglobalenergytransition21Therapidgrowthofsolarisondisplayeverywhere24Flexibilitycanenablefurthergrowthinsolarpowergeneration282.2Cleangenerationisexpectedtomeethigherlevelsofdemandgrowth31Demandgrowthishigherthanitusedtobe31Expectationsriseforfuturedemandgrowth,butremainuncertain33Cleanelectricityisgrowingquicklyenoughtomeethigherlevelsofdemandgrowth362.3FutureelectricitydemandgrowthinIndiaandChinawillbepoweredbycleansources38ChinaandIndiaaredecouplingelectricitydemandgrowthfromfossilgrowth38TheendisinsightforChina’sfossil-baseddemandgrowth40India’sfossilsurgecouldalreadybeslowing43CleangrowthinChinaandIndiacantipthebalancetowardsadeclineinfossilgenerationatagloballevel46Chapter3:GlobalElectricityTrends483.1Globalelectricitydemand493.2Globalelectricitygeneration533.3Globalpowersectoremissions57EMB三R4ContentsChapter4:GlobalElectricitySourceTrends614.2Wind664.3Hydro694.4Nuclear724.5Gas754.6Coal78Chapter5:MajorCountriesandRegions815.1China835.2UnitedStates875.3EuropeanUnion915.4India955.5Russia995.6Japan102Conclusion110Supportingmaterials112Methodology112Acknowledgements1175ExecutivesummaryWorldsurpasses40%cleanpowerasrenewablesseerecordriseCleanpowersurpassed40%ofglobalelectricitygenerationin2024,drivenbyrecordgrowthinrenewables,especiallysolar.Heatwavescontributedtohighgrowthinelectricitydemandwhichresultedinasmallincreaseinfossilgeneration,drivinguppowersectoremissionstoanall-timehigh.Solarpowerhasbecometheengineoftheglobalenergytransition,withbothsolargenerationandcapacityinstallationssettingnewrecordsin2024.Solargenerationhasmaintaineditshighgrowthrate,doublinginthelastthreeyears,andaddingmoreelectricitythananyothersourceoverthatperiod.Atthesametime,electricitydemandsawasignificantrisein2024,outpacingthegrowthincleanelectricity.ExpandingtechnologiessuchasAI,datacentres,electricvehiclesandheatpumpsarealreadycontributingtotheriseinglobaldemand.However,themainreasonwhyelectricitydemandgrowthwaselevatedin2024comparedto2023wasanincreaseinairconditioninguseduringheatwaves.Thisaccountedforalmostallofthesmallriseinfossilgeneration.6KeytakeawaysCleanpowersurpasses40%Cleanpowersurpasses40%ofglobalelectricitygenerationGenerationfromalllow-carbonpowersources–renewablesplusnuclear–surpassed40%ofglobalelectricityin2024forthefirsttimesincethe1940s.Renewablepowersourcesaddedarecord858TWhofgenerationin2024,49%morethanthepreviousrecordof577TWhsetin2022.Therecordincreaseinrenewablescoupledwithasmallincreaseinnuclearoutputof69TWhbroughtlow-carbonpowerto40.9%(12,609TWh)ofthemixin2024,comparedwith39.4%in2023.Hydroremainedthelargestsourceoflow-carbonelectricity(14.3%),followedbynuclear(9.0%),withwind(8.1%)andsolar(6.9%)rapidlygaininggroundandtogetherovertakinghydroin2024,whilenuclear’ssharereacheda45-yearlow.702Solargenerationdoublesinthreeyears02Solargenerationhasdoubledoverthelastthreeyearstoreachover2000TWh.Solarwasthelargestsourceofnewelectricitygenerationgloballyforthethirdyearinarow(+474TWh)andthefastestgrowingsourceofelectricity(+29%)forthe20thyearinarow.Morethanhalf(53%)oftheincreaseinsolargenerationin2024wasinChina,withChina’scleangenerationgrowthmeeting81%ofitsdemandincreasein2024.Thefastpaceofglobalsolargrowthissettocontinue,with2024settinganewrecordforsolarcapacityinstallationsinasingleyear–morethandoubletheamountinstalledin2022.Globalsolarpowercapacityreached1TWin2022afterdecadesofgrowth,butreached2TWonlytwoyearslater,in2024.03Heatwavesthemaindriverofasmallincreaseinfossilgeneration03Periodsofhottertemperaturesaroundpopulationcentresdroveupdemandforcoolingin2024comparedwith2023.Thisadded0.7%(+208TWh)toglobalelectricitydemand,andmeantthatoveralldemandgrewbymuchmore(+4.0%)thanin2023(+2.6%).Consequentlyfossilgenerationincreasedby1.4%,andglobalpowersectoremissionsroseby1.6%toanewall-timehighof14.6billiontonnesofCO2.Hottertemperatureswerethemaindriveroftheriseinfossilgeneration:withoutthis,fossilgenerationwouldhaverisenbyonly0.2%,ascleanelectricitygenerationmet96%ofthedemandgrowthnotcausedbyhottertemperatures.Theincreaseinglobalfossilgenerationin2024(+245TWh)wasvirtuallyidenticaltothatseenin2023(+246TWh)despitethesubstantialdifferenceinratesofdemandgrowth.Theglobalpowersystemwillbedominatedbytwomega-trendsovertherestofthedecade:solar’sshareintheelectricitymixrisingrapidlyasitcontinuesitsexponentialgrowth,androbustelectricitydemandgrowthaselectricityreplacesotherformsofenergypoweringtheglobaleconomy.Signsofthisarealreadyhere:solarhasbeenthelargestsourceofnewelectricityforthelastthreeyears,andnewdriversofdemandsuchasEVs,heatpumpsanddatacentresarecontributing0.7%toannualdemandgrowth,morethantwiceasmuchastheydidfiveyearsago.8Aswereachatippingpointwheretheincreasinglyrapidriseofcleangenerationoutpacesstructuralgrowthindemand,changestofossilfuelgenerationovertheshort-termwillbedominatedbyfluctuationsinweather,asseenin2024withtheimpactsofheatwaves.Despitethis,itremainsclearthatcleangenerationgrowthandtheuptakeofflexibletechnologiessuchasbatterystoragewillreducerelianceonfossilfuelpowerinthecomingyears,eveninaworldoffasterdemandgrowth.Weestimatethatevenifelectricitydemandgrowsat4.1%peryearuntil2030,whichexceedscurrentexpectations,cleangenerationgrowthwillbefastenoughtokeeppace.Dynamicsintheworld’slargestemergingeconomieswillplayacrucialrole.ChinaandIndiaarebothmovingtowardsafutureofdemandgrowthpoweredbycleanelectricity,helpingtotipthebalancetowardsadeclineinfossilgenerationatagloballevel."Solarpowerhasbecometheengineoftheglobalenergytransition.Pairedwithbatterystorage,solarissettobeanunstoppableforce.Asthefastest-growingandlargestsourceofnewelectricity,itiscriticalinmeetingtheworld’sever-increasingdemandforelectricity.Amidthenoise,it'sessentialtofocusontherealsignal.Hotterweatherdrovethefossilgenerationincreasein2024,butwe'reveryunlikelytoseeasimilarjumpin2025.TheworldiswatchinghowtechnologieslikeAIandEVswilldriveelectricitydemand.It’sclearthatboomingsolarandwindarecomfortablysettodeliver,andthoseexpectingfossilfuelgenerationtokeeprisingwillbedisappointed.Cleantech,notfossilfuels,isnowthedrivingforceofeconomicdevelopment.Theeraoffossilgrowthiscomingtoanend,eveninaworldoffast-risingdemand.”PhilMacDonaldManagingDirector,EmberEMB三R9Chapter1:2024inreviewRecordriseinrenewablespushescleanpowergenerationabove40%ofglobalelectricityRecordrenewablesgrowthhelpedpushcleanpowertoanewmilestone.However,heatwavescontributedtohighgrowthinelectricitydemand,whichresultedinasmallincreaseinfossilgeneration.Renewablegenerationshowedarecordincreasein2024,drivenbyasurgeinsolarpower,areboundinhydroandmoderatewindgrowth.Hottertemperaturesthanin2023amplifiedtheincreaseinelectricitydemandandledtoasmallriseinfossilgeneration(+1.4%).Consequently,powersectoremissionsincreasedby1.6%,risingtoanewrecordhighof14.6billiontonnesofCO2.However,fossilgenerationwouldhaveremainedalmostunchangedintheabsenceofhottertemperatures,ascleangenerationrosequicklyenoughtomeetthenon-temperaturerelatedgrowthinelectricitydemandin2024.Recordriseinrenewables,ledbysolar,bringscleanpowertoanewmilestoneCleanpowersurpasses40%ofglobalelectricitygenerationArecordsurgeinrenewablesspearheadedbysolarpower,combinedwithincreasednuclearoutput,pushedcleanelectricity'sshareto40.9%ofglobalelectricityin2024,upfrom39.4%in2023.2024wasthefirstyearthatlow-carbonsourcesdeliveredmorethan40%ofglobalelectricitysincethe1940s,whentheglobalelectricitysystemwas50timessmallerthanitistoday.EMB三R10Theglobalshareofwind(8.1%)andsolar(6.9%)israpidlyincreasing,togetherexceedinghydropowerforthefirsttimein2024.Hydroremainedthelargestsourceofcleanelectricity,providing14.3%ofglobalelectricitygenerationin2024,followedbynuclearat9.0%.Despiteremainingthetwolargestsourcesoflow-carbonelectricity,hydroandnucleararenotincreasingtheirshare–withnuclear'ssharefallingtoa45-yearlowin2024–asgenerationhasbeengrowingmoreslowlythanelectricitydemand.Otherrenewables,suchasbioenergyandgeothermalpower,contributed2.6%ofglobalelectricityin2024.80countriesgeneratedmorethan50%oftheirelectricityfromcleansourcesin2024,including47countriesthatreachedmorethan75%.Astheglobalshareofcleansourcesrose,theshareoffossilfuelsintheelectricitymixconsequentlyfellfrom60.6%in2023to59.1%in2024,droppingbelow60%forthefirsttimesincethe1940s.Coalpowerprovided34.4%ofglobalelectricityin2024andgas22%,withotherfossilfuelscontributing2.8%.Recordrenewablesgrowthmeetsthree-quartersofelectricitydemandgrowthIn2024,renewablepowersourcescollectivelyaddedarecord858TWhofgeneration–a49%increaseoverthepreviousrecordof577TWhsetin2022.Withthegrowthinsolar,hydroandwind,renewablesmetthree-quartersofthegrowthinelectricitydemand.Solarwasthelargestdriverofnewelectricitygrowth,risingby474TWh(+29%)andmeeting40%oftheglobalincreaseinelectricitydemand.Hydropoweroutputroseby182TWhin2024,reachinganewall-timehigh.Thegrowthin2024wasareboundfromhistoricdroughtsin2023,whichconstrainedhydroproduction.Notably,Chinaaccountedfor72%ofthereboundinglobalhydrogenerationin2024,asthecountrywashitparticularlyhardbydroughtsinlate2022and2023.However,despitetheglobalincreaseinhydrogenerationin2024,thecapacityfactor–theamountofgenerationperunitofcapacity–oftheglobalhydrofleetremainedsignificantlybelowhistoricallevels.Therecordgenerationin2024wasonly2%abovethepreviousrecordsetin2020,despitecapacityincreasingby7%sincethen.EMB三R12Windgenerationalsogrewby182TWh(+7.9%)in2024.Whilecapacityadditionsremainedhigh,slightlylowerwindspeedsinsomegeographies–especiallyinChinaandtheEU–reducedpotentialgenerationgains.Withcapacitygrowthremainingstrongacrosstheworld,generationislikelytoreturntohighergrowthinthecomingyears,thoughwindconditionswillaffectoutputfromyeartoyear.Nuclearpowerincreasedby69TWh(+2.5%),risingforthesecondyearinarow,drivenlargelybyhigherutilisationratesinFrance.Together,renewablesandnuclearmet79%ofthedemandincrease.Fossilfuelsmettheremainderofthedemandincrease,whichwaslargelycausedbyhottertemperatures(seemoredetaillaterinthischapter).EMB三R13Recordsolarincreasein2024assolarpowermaintainshighgrowthratesSolarpowersurgedbyarecord474TWhin2024,thelargestannualgrowtheverrecordedinabsolutetermsandthefastestincreaseinsixyears(+29%).Solarpowerhasmaintaineditsextraordinarilyhighgrowthratesevenasthetechnologyhasbecometheprimarydriverofnewelectricitygeneration.Asaresult,solargenerationhasdoubledeverythreeyears,reaching2,131TWhin2024.Forthethirdconsecutiveyear,solarrecordedthelargestabsoluteincreaseofanyelectricitysource.Forthe20thyearinarow,itremainedthefastest-growingpowersource.Thesurgein2024wasdrivenbyrecordsolarcapacityinstallationsin2023and2024.In2023,newcapacityinstallationsjumpedby86%comparedwith2022.In2024,theyincreasedbyafurther30%,toatotalof585GW.Ascapacityisinstalledthroughouttheyear,aproportionofitonlyresultsingenerationincreasesthefollowingyear.EMB三R14Solargenerationgrowthfromtherecentcapacityboomwaspotentiallyevenlargerthanobserved,asreportingfromdistributedsolar,suchasrooftopinstallations,canbeincomplete.Ember’sdataincludesrooftopsolargenerationwherepossibleandincludesestimatesincountrieswithlargeamountsofrooftopsolarwherereportingisinaccurate,butsomeunderestimationislikely.HottertemperaturesamplifyhighelectricitydemandgrowthElectricitydemandgrowsatthethird-highestlevelinthelastdecadeGlobalelectricitydemandgrewby4.0%(+1,172TWh)in2024,crossing30,000TWhtotaldemandforthefirsttime.2024representsthethird-highestpercentagegrowthinelectricitydemandinthelasttenyears.Theincreaseindemandin2024wassignificantlyhigherthanin2023and2022,whenglobaldemandgrewby2.6%(+758TWh)and2.3%(+656TWh)respectively.Unlikethepost-pandemicreboundin2021,theincreasein2024wasnotdrivenbyanaccelerationinoveralleconomicactivity.GDPdatashowssimilarratesofgrowthin2024(+3.2%)and2023(+3.3%),whichimpliesthateconomicgrowthwasnotthedrivingfactorbehindthesurgeindemandin2024.EMB三R15HeatwavesamplifyhigherdemandgrowthElectricitydemandgrowthacceleratedfrom2.6%in2023to4.0%in2024.However,accountingfordifferencesintemperatures,demandgrowthwasthesameacrossbothyearsat3.3%.Analysingtemperatureimpactsonelectricitydemand,Emberestimatesthatnearlyafifthofthedemandincreasein2024wastemperature-related(seeMethodologyformoredetail).2024surpassed2023asthehottestyearonrecord,andcruciallyshowedespeciallyhightemperaturesaroundpopulationcentresinmajoreconomies,particularlyinChina,theUSandIndia(readmoreinEmber’sanalysisonheatwavesandelectricitydemandinthesecountries).EMB三R16Highertemperatureshadatwofoldeffectondemandin2024.Ontheonehand,theyincreasedcoolingdemandby238TWhcomparedto2023.Ontheotherhand,milderwintersreducedtheneedforheatingby29TWh.Thenetresultwasatemperature-relatedincreaseof208TWh.Had2024experiencedthesametemperaturepatternsas2023,theoverallelectricitydemandgrowthwouldhavebeenonly3.3%(+963TWh),ratherthanthe4.0%(+1,172TWh)observed.Recentyearshaveshownhowweatherpatternsaffectelectricitydemand,leadingtoyear-to-yearvariabilityontopoftheunderlyingupwardstrendfromeconomicgrowthandelectrification.In2022,colderwintersthannormalintheUnitedStatescreatedadditionaldemandforheating,andsummerheatwavesintheUSandChinaamplifiedcoolingdemand.In2023,therewerelessdramaticweatherextremes,andsolessdemandforheatingorcooling.In2024,heatwavesledtohigherdemandforcooling.Annualdemandgrowthinboth2024and2023wouldhavebeen3.3%withouttemperatureimpacts.Thedifferencesinweatherpatternsdecreaseddemandgrowthfrom2022to2023by186TWh,reducingwhatwouldhavebeenariseof3.3%downtotheobserveddemandgrowthof2.6%.Incontrast,temperatureimpactsincreaseddemandgrowthfrom2023to2024by208TWh,inflatingwhatwouldhavebeenariseof3.3%uptothe4.0%observed.Evenafterthesecorrectionsfortemperature,theunderlyingdemandgrowthin2023and2024of3.3%washigherthantheten-yearaverage(2013-2022)of2.5%.ThisislargelydrivenbyapplicationssuchasEVs,heatpumpsanddatacentres(seeChapter2.2formoreanalysis).HeatwavesdriveasmallincreaseinfossiluseIn2024,globalfossilgenerationincreasedby245TWh(+1.4%)–comparabletotheincreasesof246TWhin2023and201TWhin2022.Thisriseinfossilgenerationledtoa1.6%increaseinglobalpowersectoremissions(+223milliontonnesofCO2),whichreachedarecordhighof14.6billiontonnesofCO2.However,Ember’sanalysisshowsthatfossilgenerationroseprimarilyasaresultofhottertemperaturescomparedto2023.EMB三RHottertemperaturesthekeydriveroffossilpowerandemissionsincreasesin2024Hottertemperaturescomparedto2023wereakeyreasonbehindtheincreaseinfossilgenerationin2024.Cleanelectricitygenerationsurgedbyarecord927TWhin2024,whichwassufficienttocover96%oftheelectricitydemandgrowthnotcausedbyhighertemperatures(+963TWh).However,fossilfuelgenerationrosetomeettheadditionaldemandincreaseof208TWhdrivenbyhightemperatures.Thisdynamicwasespeciallypronouncedincountriesthatexperiencedstrongheatwaves,withcoalrisingtomeethigherdemandinChinaandIndia,andgasrisingtomeetdemandintheUS.Onaglobalbasis,if2024hadexperiencedthesametemperaturesas2023,fossilgenerationwouldhaveremainedalmostunchanged,withjusta0.2%increase.EMB三R18Smaller-than-averageincreaseinfossilgenerationinChinaandIndia,whiletheUSreboundsfromafallin2023Theworld’sthreelargestpowerconsumers–China,IndiaandtheUS–sawanincreaseinfossilgenerationin2024,whiletheworld’sfourthlargest,theEU,sawadecline.Chinawasstillthecountrywiththelargestincreaseinfossilgeneration,but–despitetheimpactsofheatwaves–2024’sgrowthof116TWhwaslessthanathirdofits2023increase(+367TWh)andonlyhalfitsaverageannualincreaseoverthelastfiveyears(+218TWh).India’sfossilgenerationgrewby67TWhin2024,significantlylowerthanthe124TWhincreaserecordedin2023andthecountry’slowestincreasesincethereboundaftertheCovid-19pandemic.Drivenbyariseinelectricitydemand,theUSalsosawanincreaseinfossilgeneration(+34TWh)in2024.Gasgenerationrosesignificantly,ascoalsawamoderatefall.Thisrepresentsareboundfrom2023whichsawayear-on-yeardeclineinfossilgenerationamidfallingdemand.USgasgenerationgrowthwasequivalentto57%oftheglobalincreaseingasgenerationin2024.Despiterecordcleanelectricitygrowth,theUShasnowrecordedanincreaseinfossilgenerationinthreeoutofthelastfouryears.TheEUcontinuedtoseeafallinfossilgeneration(-75TWh)in2024.Thishappeneddespiteasmallincreaseinpowerdemandandanincreaseinelectricityexports,ascleanelectricitygrowthsignificantlyoutpaceddemandgrowth.EMB三R19Chapter2:TheBigPictureThemega-trendsshapingtheelectricitytransitionThissectionexploresthreetrendsthatarehavinganoutsizedimpactinshapingtheglobalelectricitytransition,nowandinthecomingyears:thestaggeringriseofsolar,thenewdriversofaccelerateddemandgrowthandthetrajectoriesofChinaandIndia.Firstwelookatsolarpower,whichhasbecometheengineoftheglobalenergytransition,doublingeverythreeyearstobecomethelargestandfastest-growingsourceofnewelectricitygeneration.Asbatterycostsdecline,thecombinationofbatteriesandsolarisprovingawinningcombination,alongwithotherformsofcleanflexibilitythatwillunlockthefullvalueofsolar.WethendiscusshowemergingdriverslikeEVs,heatpumpsanddatacentreshavestructurallyraiseddemandgrowth.Whileexpectationsforfuturegro