MHP管理咨詢(xún)2024人工智能重寫(xiě)汽車(chē)行業(yè)游戲規(guī)則的新動(dòng)力研究報(bào)告（英文）

AI

AS

GAME

CHANGERThe

New

Driving

Force

of

theAutomotive

IndustrySTUDYThestudy“AIasGameChanger“and

its

summarywere

published

by:MHP

Gesellschaftfür

Management-

und

IT-Beratung

mbHAll

rights

reserved!No

reproduction,

microfilming,

storage,

or

processing

in

electronic

media

permittedwithoutthe

consent

ofthe

publisher.

The

contents

of

this

publication

are

intended

to

inform

our

customers

and

business

partners.

They

correspondtothestateofknowledgeoftheauthorsatthetimeofpublication.To

resolve

any

issues,

please

refer

to

the

sources

listed

in

the

publication

or

contact

the

designated

contact

persons.

Opinion

articles

reflect

the

viewsofthe

individualauthors.

Roundingdifferences

mayoccur

in

the

graphics.AuthorMarcusWillandMobilityMarcus.Willand@AuthorDr.

Nils

SchaupensteinerTransformationAdvisoryNils.Schaupensteiner@AuthorPatrick

RuhlandTransformationAdvisoryPatrick.Ruhland@LeadAugustin

FriedelSoftware

DefinedVehicles

Augustin.Friedel@LeadMatthias

BorchArtificial

Intelligence

Matthias.Borch@Contact

PersonStephan

BaierArtificial

Intelligence

Stephan.Baier@Authors

&

Contact

personAI

as

Game

Changer3ContentsContents

4Tableof

figures

612

Key

Findings8WelcometoChange!

10

01.RevolutionandAutomotive

MarketPotential11

02.

Investment

inCompaniesWithanAI

Focus

15

03.

Pilot

Projectsand

Implementation19

04.AI

Models,

Levels,and

UseCases

234.1The

Game

Changer:What

Can

BeAchievedWithAI

264.2Automobile

ManufacturersWith

LowAI

Investment294.3AI

Models:

Makeor

Buy?

29

05.AIApplicationsAlongtheAutomotiveValueChain315.1AI

Operation

inVehiclesand

inthe

Cloud

355.2AI

Monetization

inVehicles

395.3AddedValueofAIApplications

in

Companies

40

06.WhattheCustomerWants:The

User

Perspective476.1

Useand

UnderstandingofAIApplications

496.2Advantagesand

Disadvantages–

Generallyand

inVehicles

496.3

Purchasing

Decision,TrustandWillingnessto

Pay

514

07.

Success

Factorsand

StrategicApproach

557.1

Strategyand

Goal

Planning

567.2Thinkfromthe

Perspectiveofthe

Customer,

nottheTechnology

567.3OrganizationalAnchoringand

Ownership

587.4

Local

Differences

require

local

Setup

597.5

Reducing

Complexity

597.6

UseandMonetizationof

Data607.7

Checklistforsuccessful

Implementation

61

08.Challenges,

Responsibility,and

Risks

638.1CostsofTrainingand

Operation

648.2

DataandDigitalizationas

a

Basis

658.3

Business

Models

and

Cases

for

B2C

and

B2B658.4

Ethicsand

Responsibility

678.5

New

Risksand

Regulatory

Challenges

69

09.AIApplications

intheAutomotive

Industry:7

RecommendationsforAction71

10.

Further

Informations75Literatureand

Sources

76ContactInternational

78AboutMHP

795AI

as

Game

Changer

|

ContentsTableof

figuresFigure

1:Technologysupercycles–artificial

intelligence

asthe

next

relevant

platform

shift(Coatue,2024)

12Figure

2:AI

marketsize

intheautomotivesector

(Precedence

Research,

2024)

12Figure

3:Total

investments

inAIcompaniesfoundedsince

2001,

in

USD

billion

(Scheuer,

2024)16Figure4:

Investment

inAIstack

layers(Coatue,

2024)

17Figure

5:

Companieswithteamand

budgetforAI(Capgemini,

2023)21Figure

6:

InterconnectedAIconcepts

24Figure

7:VisualizationofAI

as

a

pyramid

25Figure8:

Classificationof

AI

terms

27Figure9:The

performanceofAI

modelscomparedto

human

capabilities

in

the

MMLU

test

(iAsk,

2024)28

Figure

10:

SchematicdiagramofthetrainingofAI

foundation

models

for

vehicles30Figure

11:

UseofAIalong

the

value

chain

32Figure

12:

Significant

improvementsoffunctionsandfeaturesthroughAI33Figure

13:

Interest

inAIfunctionscompared

internationally

34Figure

14:

Roleofon-premise,cloud,and

vehicle

for

AI

models

35Figure

15:

Levelsofasoftware-definedvehicle

(SDV)

(Willand,

Friedel,

&

Schaupensteiner,

2023)36Figure

16:

Different

modelsforADASandADapplicationsand

functions

37Figure

17:AI’s

potentialatdifferentstagesofthe

value

chain(Capgemini,

2023)40Figure

18:

UseofAI-basedsolutions

by

region

41Figure

19:

Key

drivers

behindthe

useofAI

in

production

426Figure

20:

Decisive

issue–fewer

usersofsoftwaredueto

AI

or

free

software

(Coatue,

2024)43Figure

21:

Possible

usesofAI

insoftwaredevelopment

(Wee

2024)

44Figure

22:

UnderstandingofAI

incars

48Figure

23:Advantagesof

usingAI

in

cars

49Figure24:The

perceivedadvantagesanddisadvantagesof

using

AI

50Figure25:AI

incars:

purchase

motivationor

blocker?

51Figure26:Trust

instakeholderswith

regardtothe

implementation

ofAI

in

vehicles52Figure27:Willingnessto

payforAI

functions

52

Abb.28:AssessmentofthefutureAI

competence

of

car

manufacturers

by

region53Figure29:

Customerand

usecasefirst,andthen

AI

applications

and

models

57

Figure30:

Dimensionsforvalidatingtechnicalfeasibility

57Figure

31:TrainingcostsforAI

modelsare

increasing

(Stanford

University,

2024)

64Figure

32:

Dataavailabilityandquality

by

region

65Figure33:

Customers’

willingnessto

pay

is

unclear;costsarisefor

implementation

and

operation66Figure34:

ClassificationofAI

usecasecategories

and

possible

business

models

67Figure

35:

Risksassociatedwiththe

use

ofAI

68Figure36:

Principlesand

penaltiesofthe

EU

AI

Act

70

Table

1:ThedevelopmentofAI

modelsdivided

into

different

time

phases

27

AI

as

Game

Change

r

|Table

of

figures712

Key

FindingsThewidespread

useofAI

is

predictedto

bethe

next

relevantplatformshiftaftercloudtransformation–originalequipmentmanufacturers(OEMs)

needtostep

uptheir

activities.The

mostfrequently

mentioneddisadvantagesofAIarefearof

loss

of

control,

loss

of

data

protection

and

personal

privacy,andsecurity

risks.of

respondents

in

China

statethatthe

risks

ofAIoutweighthe

benefits;this

figure

isaround

25

percent

in

Europeand

the

US.SkepticismaboutAIapplications

isgreater

intheUSthan

inEuropeor

China.of

respondentssee

time-savingas

thebiggest

benefitof AIapplications.MorethanOnly8Today,Chinese

carmanufacturersare

regardedas

leaders

inAI

innovation.

Infive

years’time,Japanese

OEMswillbeat

the

forefront,followed

by

Chineseand

German

OEMs.AI

is

notonly

revolutionizingthein-vehiclecustomerexperience–theentire

value

chain

isexperiencingdisruptivechange.Successful

implementationof

AIapplications

is

not

possiblewithout

priordigitalizationand

accesstospecific

data

sources.Traditionalcar

manufacturers

arethe

mosttrustedwhen

it

comestothe

use

ofAI,

faraheadofstate

institutions

and

newcar

manufacturers.In

China,AIfunctions

mostly

havea

positiveinfluenceon

carpurchasingdecisions–

onlyIn

China,

morethantwice

as

manycustomers

have

already

usedAI

in

their

cars

as

inEurope.of

respondentswould

not

buyavehicle

based

onAI

functions.Customersworldwidewant

to

useAI

incars,

but

rarely

payfor

it.KIAI

as

Game

Change

r

|12

Key

Findings9Welcometo

Change!Dear

readers,Artificial

intelligencewill

bethe

next

platformshiftthat

revolutionizes

all

industrial

sectors.

Stakeholders

intheautomotivevaluechain

have

realized

thatAI

is

challenging

many

tradi-

tional

processes

and

ways

of

thinking.

The

introduction

of

the

PC,

the

stationary

Internet

andthenthe

mobile

Internet,and

Cloud/SaaS

previously

hadasimilarly

disruptive

impact.

New

business

models

and

profit

pools

are

emerging,while

at

the

same

time

there

are

nu-

merouschallengestobetackledwithregardtotechnology,partnerships,andethical

issues.

Inthis

study,wetracethe

groundbreaking

developments

in

AI

so

far

and

examine

the

op-

portunities

and

risks

within

the

automotive

industry.

Accompany

us

through

present

and

futurescenarios–withspecific

recommendationsfor

action

for

your

own

strategy

when

it

comesto

implementingAIapplications

in

productionand

invehicles.Whether

the

new

technologies

meet

the

expectations

of

drivers

is

determined

right

there

in

the

cockpit.

That’s

why,

in

Chapter

8,

we

outline

the

user

perspective

based

on

our

owncurrentdata.Our

internationalsurvey

provides

informationaboutwhich

products

and

servicesfrom

automotive

companies

couldfulfillAI

needs

andwhat

the

willingness

to

pay

looks

like.

That

makes

this

study

essential

reading

for

decision-makers,

CIOs,

and

applica-

tiondevelopers.Investors

in

AI

technologies

and

AI

teams

need

a

consistent,

long-term

cost-benefit

ratio.

Wethereforeexaminethedirect/indirectmonetizationofin-carAIandlookat

new

business

models

basedonAIand

digitalization.Ultimately,as

issooftenthecase,

it

becomes

clearthat

thejourney

into

new

technological

territory

is

best

undertakenwith

experiencedtravel

guides.

Getthe

know-howyou

need–

andalways

be

curious!ENABLINGYOUTO

SHAPEA

BETTERTOMORROWBest

regards,Dr.JanWehingerCluster

Lead

Software

DefinedVehiclesMHP

Management-

und

IT-Beratung

GmbHLudwigsburg,

September2024本報(bào)告來(lái)源于三個(gè)皮匠報(bào)告站（）,由用戶(hù)Id:349461下載,文檔Id:183532,下載日期:2024-12-041001.RevolutionandAutomotive

MarketPotentialAI

as

Game

Changer

|

01.

Revo

lut

ion

and

Automotive

Market

Potential111960–1980

1980s1990s2000s2010s2015–20202022–

...Figure

1:Technologysupercycles–artificial

intelligenceas

the

next

relevant

platform

shift

(Coatue,2024)AI-Basedsystemsforautomotive

industryto

reachUS$35.7

billion

by

203335.720232024202520262027202820292030203120322033Figure

2:AI

marketsize

intheautomotivesector

(Precedence

Research,

2024)26.620.015.211.79.2...in

billion

US$3.2Everyone

recognizesthatAI

isthe

next

platformshiftGenerative

AIMobile

Internet

(Web

2.0)Desktop

Internet

(Web

1.0)Cloud/

SaaSNetworkingMainframe4.73.97.35.812PCsarytobethefirstinnovator.WithastrongAIstrategy,

acompanycanalsoexploitpotentialasafastfollower.

The

marketforartificial

intelligence

inthe

automotive

industryhasshownremarkablegrowthinrecentyears.

It

is

currently

estimated

to

be

around

USD

3.9

billion

in

2024

and

is

expected

to

grow

to

USD

15

billion

by

2030.SomemarketanalysesanticipatethatAI

sales

in

the

automotive

sector

will

rise

to

over

USD

35

billion

in2033.

Growthfrom2024to

2033

correspondsto

a

rateof

28

percent.Estimatesinothermarketreports

may

beslightly

high-

er

or

lower,

but

all

show

the

same

trend.

This

means

thatextensiveeconomicopportunitiesarebeingcreat-

edalongthevaluechain

for

manufacturers,

suppliers,

andservice

providers.One

fear,however,isthatartificialintelligencewill

increasinglyreplacepeople

and

jobsmaydisappear.

Currently,AIapplicationsareregardedmoreasacom-

plement

rather

than

a

replacement.

Academics

such

as

Karim

Lakhani

from

Harvard

Business

School

believethatAIwill

not

replace

humans.One

possiblescenario

isthatpeoplewhouseAIwillhaveasignificantadvan-

tageoverworkerswho

do

not

use

it.RegardingthequestionofwhetherAIwillimprovethe

economy,asurveyshowsamixed

picture.Worldwide,

34

percent

of

respondents

believe

that

the

use

of

AI

will

improvetheeconomicsituation

intheircountry

in

thenextthreetofiveyears.ThishopeisaboveaverageIt

is

highly

likely

that

the

big

technology

companies

such

as

Google,

Meta,

and

Microsoft–

which

gained

in

importance

with

the

last

platform

shifts

(super

cy-

cles)–willalso

dominatethe

AI

age.Along

the

automotive

value

chain,

stakeholders

are

sometimes

accused

of

having

responded

to

the

last

platformshiftstoo

lateorwithan

ineffective

strategy.

Inouropinion,therelevanceofconnectivityandcloudsolutionswasrecognizedtoolateand

implementation

could

have

been

better.

The

industry

is

at

the

begin-

ning

of

the

AI

platform

shift

and

there

is

still

the

op-

portunity

to

respond

early

with

a

targeted

strategy.

Companies

likeApple

haveshownthat

it

is

not

neces-in

countriessuch

asThailand,

India,

and

SouthAfrica.

At

the

lower

end

of

the

ranking

are

countries

includ-

ing

Belgium,Japan,the

US,and

France(Ipsos,

2023).

Overall,

there

are

increasing

signs

that

there

are

far

moreopportunitiesthanrisks.Thetargeteduseofarti-

ficial

intelligencewillsignificantlyaffectour

prosperity

in

the

coming

decades.

AI

boosts

efficiency

and

can

counterthe

negativeeffectsofskillsshortages,

demo-

graphicchanges,and

high

locationcosts.

It

is

now

up

totheautomotive

industrytotake

bold

and

appropri-

atelyfastaction–and

follow

a

strategically

intelligent

approach.“AIWon’t

Replace

Humans—But

HumansWithAIWill

Replace

HumansWithoutAI.”(HBR,2023)A

I

as

Game

Changer

|

01

Revo

lut

ion

and

Automotive

Ma

rket

Potential131402.Investment

inCompaniesWith

anAI

Focus15AI

as

Game

Changer

|

02.

Investment

in

Companies

W

ith

an

AI

FocusA

look

at

the

distribution

ofAI

investment

shows

the

dominance

of

those

regions

that

also

dominated

the

market

in

the

last

platform

shifts

(see

Coatue,

2024;

Figure

1).

It

can

be

assumed

that

the

automotive

in-

dustry

will

continue

to

be

dependent

on

hyperscalers

and

technology

companies.

Collaborations

regarding

software,cloudapplications,andthe

use

of

AI

are

ex-

pectedto

increase.Ananalysisshowsthata

largeshareofthe

investment

in

AI

companies

comes

from

theUS.

Acloserlook

(Coatue,

2024)

shows

that

only

approx.

3

percent

of

the

venture

capital

deals

have

a

clear

link

to

AI,

but

that

15

percent

of

the

invested

capital

flows

into

AI

start-ups.From

thisimbalance,itcanbe

concludedthatthemarketseesrelatively

highvaluationsand

correspondingly

high

investment

rounds.

The

financ-

ingroundsshowthatmostofthe

investments

in2024

went

into

companies

that

develop

AI

models

such

as

ChatGPT,

Mistral,

and

Claude.

A

total

of

USD

14

bil-

lion

was

invested

in

AI

models

in

the

first

half

of

the

year.Thisequates

to

62

percent.In2024,asmallerproportionof

the

capital

invested

in

AI

companies

went

into

firms

that

develop

semicon-

ductorsforAIapplications.Roboticsapplications,such

as

humanoid

robots,

garnered

approx.

USD

2

billion

in

capital,

which

corresponds

to

around

9

percent

ofthe

total.101.2bn.

US$55.8

bn.

US$

San

FranciscoMagnetfor

investment:Total

investment

inAIcompanies

foundedsince2001

in

billionsof

US

dollars41.7bn.

US$SiliconValley29.2

bn.

US$

NewYork10.2

bn.

US$

Los

Angeles5.0

bn.

US$

Germany4.6

bn.

US$Washington

DC16.6

bn.

US$

Boston234.1Bn.

US$Figure3:Total

investments

inAIcompaniesfoundedsince

2001,

in

USD

billion

(Scheuer,

2024)16.5

bn.

US$

Great

Britain7

bn.

US$

Seattle6.1

bn.

US$

France8.4

bn.

US$5.3

bn.

US$

San39.6Bn.

US$DallasDiego★★★★

★★

★★

★★★★16Investments

by

BMW

iVenturesAlitheon:

Specializes

in

optical

AI

technology

for

ob-

jectidentificationandauthenticationwithFeaturePrint

technologyRecogni:

Focuses

on

high-performance

AI

processing

withlowpowerconsumptionforautonomousvehiclesAutoBrains:

Develops

AI

solutions

for

the

automotive

industry,

particularly

in

the

field

of

autonomous

driv-

ingtechnologiesInvestments

by

PorscheSensigo:Developer

of

an

AI-supported

platform

for

optimizingvehiclediagnosticsand

repair

processesWaabi:

Canadian

developer

of

AI-based

solutions

for

self-drivingtrucksApplied

Intuition:

Provides

software

solutions

for

the

development

of

driver

assistance

systems

and

auton-

omous

drivingCresta:Specializesinreal-time

intelligenceforcustom-

er

interactionsandcommunicationsolutionsAmong

thelargestinvestorsinthe

AI

fieldare

the

major

technology

companiesincludingMicrosoft,

Amazon,

NVIDIA,and

Alphabet(Google’s

holding

company).

In

2023,

these

companies

invested

around

USD25billionandwerethusresponsiblefor8percent

of

investment.Carmanufacturers’investments

in

companies

that

dealwithartificialintelligencearemoremodest.Below

aresome

examples:Investments

by

NIOCapitalMomenta:

Start-upwithafocuson

autonomous

driv-

ing

and

onthe

development

oftechnologiesfor

envi-

ronmental

perceptionand

high-precision

mappingPony.ai:

Company

focusing

on

autonomous

driving;

itforms

partnershipstodevelop

mobilitysolutionsBlack

Sesame

Technologies:

Company

specializing

in

AIchips

and

systemsWhereareAIVCdollars

going?Funding

~$14B~$4B~$2B~$2B~$100M100

80

60

40

20

0

A

I

as

Game

Changer

|

02

Investment

in

Companies

W

ith

an

A

I

FocusFigure4:

Investment

inAIstack

layers(Coatue,

2024)9%AI

Ops/

AI

Cloud9%AI

Robotics62%AI

Models20%AIApps<

1%AI

Semis171803.Pilot

Projects

and

ImplementationAI

as

Game

Changer

|

03.

P

i

l