DB23-T2700-2020-氣象災(zāi)害評估暴雨-黑龍江省

ICS07.060A47DB23黑龍江省地方標(biāo)準(zhǔn)DB23/T2700—2020氣象災(zāi)害評估暴雨黑龍江省市場監(jiān)督管理局發(fā)布DB23/T2700—2020目??次前言.....................................................................................................................................................................II引言...................................................................................................................................................................III1范圍.................................................................................................................................................................12規(guī)范性引用文件.............................................................................................................................................13術(shù)語和定義.....................................................................................................................................................14國家氣象觀測站單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估.............................................................................................................25區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害評估.........................................................................................................................................2附錄A（規(guī)范性附錄）國家氣象觀測站單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)系數(shù)...........................................................4附錄B（規(guī)范性附錄）評估區(qū)域內(nèi)各等級暴雨災(zāi)害站數(shù)占總站數(shù)的百分比計(jì)算方法...............................7參考文獻(xiàn)...............................................................................................................................................................8IDB23/T2700—2020前??言本文件按照GB/T1.1—2020《標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化工作導(dǎo)則第1部分：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化文件的結(jié)構(gòu)和起草規(guī)則》的規(guī)定起草。本文件由黑龍江省氣象局提出。本文件由黑龍江省氣象標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化技術(shù)委員會歸口。本文件起草單位：黑龍江省氣候中心、天津氣象科學(xué)研究所。本文件主要起草人：李亞濱、宋麗華、吳振玲、劉棟、蔣慧亮。IIDB23/T2700—2020引??言暴雨災(zāi)害是影響黑龍江省的重大氣象災(zāi)害之一，具有突發(fā)性、局地性、影響范圍廣、致災(zāi)程度重的的特點(diǎn)，制定暴雨災(zāi)害等級評估標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，實(shí)現(xiàn)暴雨氣象災(zāi)害評估工作的科學(xué)化、定量化、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化，為政府防災(zāi)減災(zāi)救災(zāi)提供決策服務(wù)具有重要的意義。IIIDB23/TXXXX—2020氣象災(zāi)害評估暴雨1范圍本文件規(guī)定了國家氣象觀測站單站和區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害等級及暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)計(jì)算方法。本文件適用于暴雨災(zāi)害評估。2規(guī)范性引用文件本文件沒有規(guī)范性引用文件。3術(shù)語和定義下列術(shù)語和定義適用于本文件。3.1小時(shí)最大降水量產(chǎn)生本次暴雨的天氣過程,從開始到結(jié)束的降水總量。單站暴雨開始的前10日降水總量。1DB23/TXXXX—20203.63.7單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)Y評估單站發(fā)生暴雨災(zāi)害嚴(yán)重程度的指標(biāo)。區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)I評估區(qū)域發(fā)生暴雨災(zāi)害嚴(yán)重程度的指標(biāo)。4國家氣象觀測站單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估4.1單站暴雨災(zāi)害等級依據(jù)單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)確定單站暴雨災(zāi)害等級，劃分為輕度、中度、重度、特重4個(gè)等級，見表1。表1國家氣象觀測站單站暴雨災(zāi)害等級等級類型特重重度中度輕度單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)Y≥2.51234單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)按式1計(jì)算。YkaR24maxbR1maxcRsumdR3sumeR10sum.....................................(1)5.1區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害等級依據(jù)區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)確定區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害等級，劃分為輕度、中度、重度、特重4個(gè)等級，見表2。2DB23/TXXXX—2020表2區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害等級等級類型區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)1234特重重度中度輕度I≥4.22.8≤I＜4.22.3≤I＜2.8I＜2.35.2區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)區(qū)域暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)按式2計(jì)算。I.P.P.P.P......................................(2)式中：P1、P2、P3、P4為評估區(qū)域內(nèi)特重、重度、中度、輕度暴雨災(zāi)害等級站數(shù)占評估區(qū)域內(nèi)國家氣象觀測站點(diǎn)總數(shù)的百分比，計(jì)算方法見附錄B。3DB23/TXXXX—2020AA附錄A（規(guī)范性附錄）國家氣象觀測站單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)系數(shù)通過相關(guān)分析法篩選出日最大降水、小時(shí)最大降水量、暴雨過程合量、前3日降水量和前10日降水量5個(gè)氣象因子作為單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)的影響因子，利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度分析法，將歷史暴雨災(zāi)害過程個(gè)例災(zāi)情損失中的死亡人口、直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失、農(nóng)作物受災(zāi)面積作為計(jì)算灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度的災(zāi)害指標(biāo)，將各災(zāi)害指標(biāo)進(jìn)行歸一化處理，消除量綱的影響，計(jì)算暴雨災(zāi)害的灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度。利用灰色關(guān)聯(lián)度與5個(gè)降水氣象因子結(jié)合對1984-2010年暴雨災(zāi)害個(gè)例進(jìn)行回歸分析，建立單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)方程，最終確定單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)的權(quán)重系數(shù)，見表A.1。表A.1單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)系數(shù)表站名漠河塔河呼中新林呼瑪加格達(dá)奇哈爾濱呼蘭巴彥雙城阿城五常賓縣木蘭尚志延壽方正通河依蘭鶴崗蘿北綏濱黑河孫吳遜克嫩江kabcde0.7830.7830.7830.7830.7830.7830.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5370.5250.5250.5250.1450.1450.1450.145-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.0040.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.0150.015-0.042-0.042-0.042-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.030.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0590.0120.0120.0120.0170.0170.0170.0170.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0040.0260.0260.0260.020.0070.0070.0070.0070.0070.0070.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0230.0230.0230.0190.0190.0190.0190.0010.0010.0010.0010.0010.001-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.005-0.0050.0170.0170.0170.0130.0130.0130.0134DB23/TXXXX—2020表A.1單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)系數(shù)表（續(xù)）站名五大連池北安kabcde0.1450.1450.2520.2520.2520.2521.1741.1741.1741.1741.1741.1741.1740.2840.2840.2840.2840.2840.2840.2840.9020.9020.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.7440.2540.2540.2540.2540.463-0.030.0170.0170.0060.0060.0060.0060.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0120.0170.0170.0170.0170.0170.0170.017-0.012-0.0120.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0390.0550.0550.0550.0550.0200.020.0190.0190.0030.0030.0030.0030.0160.0160.0160.0160.0160.0160.0160.0020.0020.0020.0020.0020.0020.0020.0130.0130.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.0220.020.0130.0130.0120.0120.0120.012-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.021-0.0210.0210.0210.0210.0210.0210.0210.021-0.014-0.014-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.010.0130.0130.0130.0130.006-0.030.02雞西0.010.0040.0040.0040.0040.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0270.0230.0230.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0340.0070.0070.0070.007-0.008雞東0.01密山0.01虎林0.01佳木斯湯原-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.017-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.023-0.018-0.018-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.045-0.016-0.016-0.016-0.0160.029樺川富錦同江撫遠(yuǎn)樺南牡丹江海林寧安七臺河勃利齊齊哈爾訥河5DB23/TXXXX—2020表A.1單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估指數(shù)系數(shù)表（續(xù)）站名海倫綏棱慶安望奎青岡明水蘭西肇東安達(dá)伊春嘉蔭五營烏伊嶺鐵力大慶林甸杜爾伯特肇州肇源kabcde0.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.4630.1820.1820.1820.1820.1821.9681.9681.9681.9681.9680.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0290.0090.0090.0090.0090.0090.0140.0140.0140.0140.0140.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.0200.020-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.004-0.0040.0120.0120.0120.0120.012-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.008-0.0080.018-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.03-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.014-0.0140.040.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0060.0160.0160.0160.0160.016-0.018-0.018-0.018-0.018-0.0180.0180.0180.0180.018-0.013-0.013-0.013-0.013-0.0130.040.046DB23/TXXXX—2020BB附錄B（規(guī)范性附錄）評估區(qū)域內(nèi)各等級暴雨災(zāi)害站數(shù)占總站數(shù)的百分比計(jì)算方法B.1特重等級暴雨災(zāi)害站數(shù)占總站數(shù)的百分比依據(jù)單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估結(jié)果，得出評估區(qū)域內(nèi)發(fā)生特重等級暴雨災(zāi)害的站數(shù)n1，按式B.1計(jì)算其占總站數(shù)的百分比。nP%.........................................................................(B.1)N式中：N——評估區(qū)域內(nèi)國家氣象觀測站點(diǎn)總數(shù)。B.2重度等級暴雨災(zāi)害站數(shù)占總站數(shù)的百分比依據(jù)單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估結(jié)果，得出評估區(qū)域內(nèi)發(fā)生重度等級暴雨災(zāi)害的站數(shù)n2，按式B.2計(jì)算其占總站數(shù)的百分比。PnN%......................................................................(B.2)B.3中度等級暴雨災(zāi)害站數(shù)占總站數(shù)的百分比依據(jù)單站暴雨災(zāi)害評估結(jié)果，得出評估區(qū)域內(nèi)發(fā)生中度等級暴雨災(zāi)害的站數(shù)n3，按式B.3計(jì)