【精品論文】外文outward fdi from china and its policy context, 2012

OUTWARDFDIFROMCHINAANDITSPOLICYCONTEXT,2012BYKENDAVIESCHINASOUTWARDFOREIGNDIRECTINVESTMENTOFDIHASCONTINUEDTOGROWDESPITETHEUNCERTAINGLOBALCLIMATEEMERGINGFROMTHERECENTCRISESTHELATESTFIVEYEARPLAN,WHICHCAMEINTOEFFECTIN2011,STRENGTHENSTHECOMMITMENTTOPROMOTETHE“GOINGGLOBAL”P(pán)OLICYWHILETHECOUNTRYSOFDICONTINUESTOGOINTOTERTIARYANDPRIMARYSECTORS,THEREARESIGNSOFGRADUALSECTORALDIVERSIFICATIONASIA,ESPECIALLYHONGKONGCHINA,REMAINSTHELARGESCALEOFCHINESEINVESTMENT,WITHOFDIINSMALLERTARGETS,INCLUDINGEUROPE,GROWINGMORERAPIDLYTHECARIBBEANOFFSHORETAXHAVENSCONTINUETORECEIVELARGEAMOUNTSOFCHINESEOFDILLOCALAUTHORITIESINCHINAAREINCREASINGLYDOINGTHEIRBITTOFOSTERINVESTMENTABROADUNLESSTHEREAREANYMAJORADVERSECHANGESINDOMESTICANDEXTERNALCONDITIONS,CHINASOFDIISLIKELYTOCONTINUEEXPANDINGANDDIVERSIFYINGTRENDSANDDEVELOPMENTSCOUNTRYLEVELDEVELOPMENTSCHINASOFDISTOCKREACHEDUS298BILLIONBYTHEENDOF2010,WELLOVERTENTIMESTHEUS28BILLIONRECORDEDIN2000ANDFARABOVETHENEGLIGIBLEUS4BILLIONOF19901CHINAISALATEDEVELOPERINITSOUTWARDINVESTMENT,EVENAMONGLARGEEMERGINGMARKETSBRAZILHADOFDISTOCKOFUS41BILLIONIN1990,WAYAHEADOFCHINA,BUTFELLBEHINDWITHONLYUS181BILLIONIN2010CHINASOFDISTOCKISNOWLEVELWITHTHATOFSINGAPORE,WITHUS300BILLIONIN2010RUSSIASOFDISTOCKGREWMORERAPIDLYTHANCHINAS,REACHINGUS434BILLIONIN2010HAVINGGROWNRAPIDLYSINCETHEADOPTIONOFTHE“GOGLOBAL”P(pán)OLICYATTHETURNOFTHECENTURY,CHINASFDIOUTFLOWSHAVECONTINUEDTORISEINRECENTYEARSDESPITETHEGLOBALFINANCIALANDECONOMICCRISESANDTHEWORLDWIDEPLUNGEINFDIFLOWSAFTERAMASSIVE132INCREASEFROMUS225BILLIONIN2007TOUS522BILLIONIN2008WHENGLOBALOFDIFLOWSFELLBY12,THEREWASAFURTHERINCREASE,ALTHOUGHLOWER,OF82IN2009TOUS565BILLIONASGLOBALOFDIFLOWSFELLBYAFURTHER38ASGLOBALOFDIFLOWSEDGEDUPTOUS13TRILLIONIN2010,CHINASROSEIMPRESSIVELYBY20OVERTHOSEOF2009,TOUS68BILLIONIN2010OVER79OFCHINASOFDISTOCKWASRECORDEDIN2010ASBEINGINVESTEDINTHETERTIARYSECTOR,THEMAINSUBSECTORSBEINGLEASINGANDCOMMERCIALSERVICES31OFTOTALOFDISTOCK,FINANCIALSERVICES13ANDWHOLESALEANDRETAILTRADE13THEPRIMARYSECTORCAMESECOND,WITH15OFTHETOTALIN2010,MINING,QUARRYINGANDPETROLEUMCOMPRISED14OFTOTALOFDISTOCKUNLIKEINTHECASEOFCHINASINWARDDIRECTINVESTMENT,OFDIINTHESECONDARYSECTORISARELATIVELYMINORCOMPONENTOFCHINASOFDI,MAKINGUPONLY6OFTHEOFDISTOCKIN2010THISPICTUREAPPEARSTOBECHANGING,HOWEVER,ASCHINASOFDIBECOMESMORESECTORALLYDIVERSIFIEDTHISISSUGGESTEDBYTHEOFDIFLOWSTATISTICSIN2010,FDIOUTFLOWSINTOMINING,QUARRYINGANDPETROLEUMFELLBY57FROMTHOSEIN2009,WHILETHOSEINTOMANUFACTURINGROSEBY108THEREIS,HOWEVER,ONECAVEATSINCEINVESTMENTS,ESPECIALLYTHOSEINNATURALRESOURCES,TENDTOBELARGEANDTHEREFOREGREATLYAFFECTEDBYTIMING,THEFLOWFIGURESAREALESSRELIABLEGUIDETOCHANGESINSECTORALDISTRIBUTIONTHANAREFIGURESONSTOCKSHOWEVER,EVENTHESECTORALDISTRIBUTIONASSHOWNBYFDISTOCKDATAMAYBEMISLEADINGFORINSTANCE,ITISPOSSIBLETHATSOMEPROPORTIONOFTHEINVESTMENTINTERTIARYSUBSECTORSSUCHASFINANCIALSERVICESANDLEASINGANDCOMMERCIALSERVICESMAYULTIMATELYBEDESTINEDFORUSEINMANUFACTURINGONEPOSSIBLEINDICATIONOFTHISISTHESECTORALDISTRIBUTIONOFCHINESEENTERPRISESINVESTINGOVERSEAS,WHICHGIVESADIFFERENTPICTURE,EVENTAKINGINTOACCOUNTVARYINGAVERAGESIZESOFINVESTMENTINTHEDIFFERENTSECTORSIN2010,THELARGESTPROPORTIONOFOUTWARDINVESTINGENTERPRISES29UNDERTOOKOUTWARDINVESTMENTINMANUFACTURING,WITHWHOLESALEANDRETAIL23COMINGSECONDANDLEASINGANDCOMMERCIALSERVICES13MOREOVER,EVENIFTHELARGERPROPORTIONOFENTERPRISESWITHOFDIINMANUFACTURINGHASNOIMPLICATIONSFORTHEVALUEOFFDIINMANUFACTURINGANDITSSHAREINTOTALCHINESEOFDIASWOULDBETHECASEIFTHEAVERAGEVALUEOFINVESTMENTSINMANUFACTURINGISCORRESPONDINGLYLOWERTHANTHATOFTHOSEINTHEPRIMARYSECTORORSERVICES,ITMAYHAVEIMPLICATIONSFOROTHERVARIABLES,SUCHASTHESHAREOFMANUFACTURINGINCHINESEMNESOVERSEASEMPLOYMENTORTHEIRSHAREOFEXPORTSFROMOVERSEASAFFILIATESASNOTEDINTHEFIRSTCOLUMBIAFDIPROFILEONOFDIFROMCHINATHESECTORALDISTRIBUTIONOFCHINASOFDIHASREMAINEDSTABLEINRECENTYEARS,BUTTHISSTABILITYMAYBEILLUSORYANDITISLIKELYTOGIVEWAYTOMAJORSHIFTSINCOMPOSITIONINCOMINGYEARSINTHEFUTURE,CHINESEFIRMSMAYALSODIVERSIFYTOWARDMANUFACTURINGTOSERVICEGLOBALCONSUMERGOODSMARKETSMOREDIRECTLY,ASMAYBEINDICATEDBYTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFOVERSEASINVESTINGCHINESEFIRMSDISCUSSEDABOVERECENTINVESTMENTSINSERVICES,ESPECIALLYINBANKING,WILLHAVEASTRONGCATALYZINGEFFECT,FACILITATINGBOTHTHEFURTHEREXPANSIONANDTHESECTORALDIVERSIFICATIONOFCHINASFDIITISALSODIFFICULTTOBUILDARELIABLEPICTUREOFTHEGEOGRAPHICALDISTRIBUTIONOFCHINASOFDISTOCKFROMOFFICIALSTATISTICSBECAUSEMUCHOFITISROUTEDVIAHONGKONGCHINA,ANDTHECARIBBEANTAXHAVENSTHELARGESTPROPORTIONOFTHISOFDI72OFTHETOTAL,AMOUNTINGTOUS228BILLIONASATEND2010ISREPORTEDASGOINGTOASIATHEBULKOFTHISWENTTOHONGKONGCHINAUS199BILLION,OR87OFOFDITOASIAAND63OFTHEGLOBALTOTALTHESECONDLARGESTPROPORTIONOFOFDISTOCKFROMCHINAISINLATINAMERICAANDTHECARIBBEANUS44BILLION,14OFTHEGLOBALTOTAL,BUTTHEOVERWHELMINGMAJORITYOFTHISGOESTOJUSTTWOTAXHAVENS,THEBRITISHVIRGINISLANDSANDTHECAYMANISLANDS,WHICHTOGETHERHAVECHINESEOFDISTOCKOFUS405BILLION92OFTHELATINAMERICANSHAREONLYUS30BILLIONOFCHINASOFDISTOCKISLOCATEDINDEVELOPEDECONOMIES,BUTTHISISGROWINGRAPIDLYALTHOUGHEUROPEHASABSORBEDLESSTHANUS16BILLION5OFCHINASGLOBALSTOCKIN2010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BEEXPECTEDTOCONTINUEEXPANDINGRAPIDLYANDBECOMEMOREGEOGRAPHICALLYANDSECTORALLYDIVERSETHEPACEANDCOMPOSITIONOFTHISEXPANSIONWILLDEPENDONBOTHDOMESTICANDEXTERNALCONDITIONSATTHISSTAGE,ACRUCIALFACTORWILLBETHEWILLINGNESSANDABILITYOFCHINESEENTERPRISESTOBUILDTHEIRREPUTATIONS,BOTHINDIVIDUALLYANDCOLLECTIVELYASNOTEDINTHEPREVIOUSCOLUMBIAFDIPROFILEONOUTWARDFDIFROMCHINA,25THEINCREASINGEXPOSUREOFCHINESEMNESTOINTERNATIONALBUSINESSPRACTICEWILLPROMPTTHEMTOSEEKFURTHERIMPROVEMENTSINCHINASOWNINSTITUTIONALFRAMEWORK,WHICHWILLBEBENEFICIALFORBOTHDOMESTICINVESTMENTANDINWARDANDOUTWARDFDI從中國(guó)及其政策背景下對(duì)外直接投資盡管不明朗的全球氣候出現(xiàn)從最近的危機(jī)中出現(xiàn)，中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資（OFDI）已經(jīng)繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。生效與2011年的最新五年計(jì)劃，更加強(qiáng)調(diào)了走出去的政策，而該國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資繼續(xù)進(jìn)入第三和第一產(chǎn)業(yè)，也有部門(mén)逐漸多元化的跡象。亞洲，特別是香港（中國(guó)），大規(guī)模的中國(guó)投資，對(duì)外直接投資在更小的目標(biāo)，包括歐洲，更快速增長(zhǎng)。加勒比海離岸避稅天堂繼續(xù)獲得大量中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資升。在中國(guó)地方當(dāng)局越來(lái)越多地做他們的位，以促進(jìn)海外投資。除非有國(guó)內(nèi)和外部條件的任何重大不利變化，中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資有可能繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大和多樣化。趨勢(shì)和發(fā)展國(guó)家層面的發(fā)展到2010年底中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資存量達(dá)到2980億美元,十倍于2000年價(jià)值280億美元的記錄,遠(yuǎn)高于19901的微不足道的40億美元,中國(guó)在其對(duì)外投資方面是后起之秀,即使在大型新興市場(chǎng)。巴西對(duì)外直接投資總額在1990年達(dá)到410億美元,比中國(guó),但在2010年落后中國(guó)1810億美元。中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資規(guī)?，F(xiàn)在水平與新加坡差不多在2010年達(dá)到3000億美元。俄羅斯比中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資規(guī)模增加更加迅速,在2010年達(dá)到4340億美元。中國(guó)經(jīng)采用“走出去”的政策在世紀(jì)之交以來(lái)發(fā)展迅速，盡管全球金融和經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和外國(guó)直接投資在全球流量暴跌，中國(guó)的FDI流出量繼續(xù)在最近幾年上升。大規(guī)模增加132，從2007年225億美元增加到2008年的522億美元（此時(shí)全球?qū)ν庵苯油顿Y流量下降了12），中國(guó)的OFDI增長(zhǎng)速度有進(jìn)一步加快，雖然低于2009年的82，2009年是565億美元（全球?qū)ν庵苯油顿Y流量下降了38）2010年全球?qū)ν庵苯油顿Y流量上升至13000億美元,中國(guó)相對(duì)于2009年增長(zhǎng)20，在2010年達(dá)到680億美元。2010年中國(guó)79的對(duì)外直接投資被投資于第三產(chǎn)業(yè)，主要子行業(yè)是租賃和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)（占對(duì)外直接投資存量的31），金融服務(wù)（13）和批發(fā)零售業(yè)（13）。第一產(chǎn)業(yè)次之，占總數(shù)的152010年采礦，和石油占對(duì)外直接投資總存量的14。不像在中國(guó)的外來(lái)直接投資的情的況，對(duì)外直接投資在第二產(chǎn)業(yè)是中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資的一個(gè)相對(duì)較小的組成部分，2010年進(jìn)展6的對(duì)外直接投資存量。然而這幅圖片也顯示出變化，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)的對(duì)外直接投資變得更加部門(mén)多樣化。這是根據(jù)對(duì)外直接投資流量統(tǒng)計(jì)出2010年外國(guó)直接投資流出量在采礦，采石和石油與相對(duì)于2009年下降了57，而制造業(yè)增長(zhǎng)了108。然而也有一個(gè)警告因?yàn)橥顿Y，尤其是那些在自然資源里的投資，往往會(huì)很大，因此大受回收時(shí)間影響，流量數(shù)字是一個(gè)不太可靠的指導(dǎo)，行業(yè)分布比是相對(duì)規(guī)模而言更可靠的。然而，即使是由外國(guó)直接投資存量數(shù)據(jù)顯示的行業(yè)分布也可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)。例如，例如在第三子行業(yè)的投資比例，如金融服務(wù)和租賃和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)投資最終可能會(huì)被運(yùn)用于制造業(yè)。這方面一個(gè)可能的標(biāo)志是中國(guó)企業(yè)投資海外的行業(yè)分布，這給了一個(gè)不同的角度看問(wèn)題，即使考慮到各種投資在不同行業(yè)的平均規(guī)模。2010年，外向型投資企業(yè)（29）的比例最大的投資在制造業(yè)，批發(fā)與零售（23）名列第二，租賃和商務(wù)服務(wù)業(yè)（13）此外，即使企業(yè)對(duì)外直接投資較大的比例在制造業(yè)的生產(chǎn)和其占中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資總額沒(méi)有影響外國(guó)直接投資的價(jià)值（如果投資在制造業(yè)的平均價(jià)值比那些在初級(jí)部門(mén)或服務(wù)的相應(yīng)較低），它可能有其他變量，如制造業(yè)在中國(guó)的跨國(guó)公司的海外工作或自己的份額從海外關(guān)聯(lián)公司出口份額的影響。正如在第一個(gè)哥倫比亞國(guó)際直接投資文件顯示，從對(duì)外直接投資的行業(yè)分布注意到中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資一直保持穩(wěn)定，但這種穩(wěn)定性可能是虛幻的，它很可能讓位于未來(lái)幾年組成的重大轉(zhuǎn)變。在未來(lái)中國(guó)企業(yè)也將朝著多樣化，制造更直接地服務(wù)于全球消費(fèi)品市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品，可以通過(guò)上面所討論的中國(guó)企業(yè)海外投資的分布來(lái)表示。最近在服務(wù)業(yè)的投資，尤其是在銀行，會(huì)產(chǎn)生強(qiáng)烈的催化作用，促進(jìn)雙方的進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大和中國(guó)的外商直接投資的部門(mén)多樣化。從官方統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)中建立中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資的地理分布的可靠圖片是很難的，因?yàn)楹艽笠徊糠质峭ㄟ^(guò)香港（中國(guó)）和加勒比地區(qū)避稅天堂投資到國(guó)外的。這個(gè)對(duì)外直接投資的最大比例占總數(shù)的72，截至2010年底為美元2280億美元投資到了亞洲。這樣大的份額主要投向香港（中國(guó)）（1990億美元，或?qū)ν庵苯油顿Y的87，亞洲及全球總量的63）。來(lái)自中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資存量的第二大比例在拉丁美洲和加勒比地區(qū)（440億美元，占全球總量的14），但絕大多數(shù)的這種去向只有兩個(gè)避稅天堂，英屬維爾京群島和開(kāi)曼群島，它們共同擁有的405億美元（拉丁美洲占92）的中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資存量。只有300億美元的對(duì)外直接投資存量坐落在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，但這種投資取向增長(zhǎng)很快。雖然歐洲已經(jīng)吸收了不到160億美元（中國(guó)在2010年全球規(guī)模的5），但歐洲接收到了中國(guó)在全球外國(guó)直接投資占2010的6，2009年的10的流量2010年，中國(guó)對(duì)外直接投資到歐洲的流量增加了一倍，中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資存量最大的發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)是澳大利亞，到2010年年底達(dá)到80億美元，占全球總量的3。在非洲的對(duì)外直接投資存量在2010年達(dá)到130億美元，占全球總量的4。大部分的非洲和澳大利亞對(duì)外直接投資頭像了天然資源行業(yè)。大多數(shù)地區(qū)中國(guó)的對(duì)外直接投資存量的增長(zhǎng)速度非常快例如，2010年相對(duì)于2005年,在大大洋洲增長(zhǎng)速度逾13倍，而在歐洲則是12倍，在非洲是八倍。在使用官方的對(duì)外直接投資數(shù)字時(shí)需要謹(jǐn)慎。在某種程度上，對(duì)外直接投資用于注資的是特殊目的實(shí)體，然后用這筆錢(qián)為外國(guó)直接投資（IFDI）在中國(guó)采取的財(cái)政刺激措施提供優(yōu)勢(shì)，即在某種程度上有“往返”，官方數(shù)據(jù)總可能被高估。從2008年取消財(cái)政獎(jiǎng)勵(lì),開(kāi)始圓跳閘邏輯上應(yīng)減少。但就其本質(zhì)為非法活動(dòng)，它是很難獲得在往返的實(shí)際趨勢(shì)的確鑿證據(jù)。其中一個(gè)原因是往返的延續(xù)